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USAID CLEAN POWER ASIA

Introduction to Hazards for

the Lao PDR Power Sector

Engaging Stakeholders in Assessing Vulnerabilities in the Lao PDR Power Sector Workshop
Crowne Plaza Hotel,Vientiane
August 21-23, 2018

Jason Vogel, Abt Associates

8/28/2018
Nathan Lee, U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 1
Key Messages

Power System Hazards:

1) Natural Hazards
2) Technological Hazards
3) Human Caused Hazards

2
 Selected Hazards
• Cyclones (extreme precipitation, landslides, wind)
• Drought
• Extreme heat and cold
• Lightning
• Technological (design, workmanship)
• Wildlife interactions
• Human caused accidents

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 Definitions
Hazard: Something that can negatively impact the power
sector. This includes both infrastructure and process. Hazards
are outside of your control e.g. a typhoon

Threat: Often used interchangeably with hazard.

Impact: The extent to which a hazard affects power sector
infrastructure and process e.g. typhoon causes wind damage to
transmission lines

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Overview of Power Sector Hazards

Natural Human
Technological
Hazards Caused

Transmission

Load
Distribution

5
 Natural Hazards

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Selected Natural Hazards
• Cyclones
– Extreme precipitation
– Wind damage
– Landslides
• Extreme heat and cold
• Drought
• Lightning

7
 Cyclones
• Tropical/cyclone intensity
increases of 2–11% by 2100.
• Tropical/cyclone frequency
decreases of 6–34% by 2100.
• Substantial increases in the
frequency of the most
intense cyclones
• Increases of the order of
20% in the precipitation rate
within 100 km of the storm
Source: The Guardian, Image from Japan Meteorological Agency's MTSAT of Typhoon
Haiyan over the Leyte Gulf. Photograph: Zuma/rex
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/08/typhoon-haiyan-batters-philippines
center.
• Large variation by basin
• Detection, and attribution
difficult

Source: Kuntson, et. al., 2010, Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change, Nature Geoscience
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 Cyclones: Extreme precipitation
• Atmospheric
water-holding
increase roughly
exponentially
with
temperature.
• Observations
confirm theory. Source: Viet Nam News, Photograph: anninhthudo
https://vietnamnews.vn/environment/260423/experts-discuss-climate-change.html

• Greenhouse gas increases have contributed to observed

heavy precipitation event intensification

Source: Seung-Ki Min, et. al., 2011, Human contribution to more-intense precipitation
8/28/2018
extremes, Nature 9
Extreme heat: Observed and projected global average temperature change

8/28/2018 Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 TS 10

 Extreme heat: Projected max daily temp and precipitation changes in LMB

8/28/2018 Source: USAID Lao PDR Climate Change Vulnerability Profile 11

 Drought
• More precipitation can still mean more dry days
• Increases in temperature mean more severe droughts are
possible
• MRC conducted a LMB basin-wide assessment of climate
change impacts on drought behavior; regional consultation
in March 2017; draft under revision “will be soon finalized
and made available”

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 Group Activity

8/28/2018 13
Overview of Power Sector Hazards

Natural Human
Technological
Hazards Caused

Transmission

Load
Distribution

14
 Selected Hazards

• Cyclones (extreme precipitation, landslides, wind)

• Drought
• Extreme heat and cold
• Lightning
• Technological (design, workmanship)
• Wildlife interactions
• Human caused accidents

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 Selected Technological and
Human Caused Hazards

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 Non-Natural Hazards
• The power sector can be
impacted by non-natural
hazards as well as natural
hazards. The first of the non-
natural hazards are often
separated into two categories:
1. Human caused hazards
2. Technological hazards

Figure. Kathmandu Post. 2018

http://kathmandupost.ekantipur.com/news/2018-02-
• Non-natural hazards involve 18/electricity-theft-down-in-lalitpur.html

unknown technological issues

and human behavior and are
therefore difficult to predict.
17
 Technological Hazards

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 Technological Hazards
• Technological hazards are non-
natural hazards that directly affect
technology and infrastructure

• Examples:
– Poor workmanship/design Figure. Three Mile Island Plant. http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-
library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/three-mile-island-accident.aspx

– Low quality/defected materials

19
Wildlife Interactions

• Another type of hazard is

wildlife interactions with
power system technology.

Figure. New York Times, R. Kikou Johnson

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/01/opinion/sunday/squirrel-power.html

20
 Human-Caused Hazards

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 Human-caused Hazards: Accidents
• There are different types of human
hazards.
• Accidents are unintentional acts
that can impact the power system.
Common accidents include:
– Accidental cutting of power lines
– Vehicles hitting power poles and ground
based electrical equipment
– Electrical workers causing equipment
failures
– Informal electrical connections
• Do accidents happen here in Laos?
– We are pretty sure they do!

22
 Human-caused Hazards: Bad Actors
• Bad actors may arise for any
number of reasons.
– Theft of power lines for metal

Figures from top. D. Schroeder 2017. NREL. Figure # 18981.;

23
https://pixabay.com/en/burglar-thief-criminal-crime-man-308858/
 Thank You!

PHOTO CREDIT: ISTOCK.COM

Mr. Sithisakdi Apichatthanapath Ms. Dana Kenney
USAID Regional Development Mission for Asia USAID Clean Power Asia
Athenee Tower, 25th Floor Abdulrahim Place, Suite 501
63 Wireless Road, Patumwan 990 Rama IV Road
Bangkok,Thailand Bangrak, Bangkok 10500
Tel: +66 2257 3000 Tel: +66 2026 3065
Email: sapichatthanapath@usaid.gov Email: Dana_Kenney@abtassoc.com

USAID CLEAN POWER ASIA

8/28/2018 24
 Extra Slides

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 Observed temperature and precipitation change
˚C or mm/yr/decade difference

8/28/2018 Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 TS 26

 Projected temperature and precipitation change
˚C or % difference from 1986-2005 mean

8/28/2018 Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 TS 27

 Southeast Asia Vulnerability Map

8/28/2018 Source: Yusuf and Francisco, Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for SE Asia 28
 Climate Vulnerability and Readiness
• University of Notre
Dame Global
Adaptation Index
• Shows a country’s
current
vulnerability to
climate disruptions
• Assesses a
country’s
readiness to
leverage private
and public sector
investment for
adaptive actions
Source: https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/rankings/
8/28/2018 29