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This article examines whether the efficiency gains accompanying fiscal decen-
tralization generate higher growth in more decentralized economies, applying
pooled-mean group techniques to a panel dataset of 23 Organization for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, 1972–2005. We find that spending
decentralization has tended to be associated with lower economic growth while
revenue decentralization has been associated with higher growth. Since OECD coun-
tries are substantially more spending than revenue decentralized, this is consistent
with Oates’ (1972) hypothesis that maximum efficiency gains require a close match
between spending and revenue decentralization. It suggests reducing expenditure
decentralization, and simultaneously increasing the fraction financed locally, would
be growth-enhancing. (JEL E62, H71, H72)
1915
Economic Inquiry doi:10.1111/j.1465-7295.2012.00508.x
(ISSN 0095-2583) Online Early publication January 2, 2013
Vol. 51, No. 4, October 2013, 1915–1931 © 2013 Western Economic Association International
1916 ECONOMIC INQUIRY
that alongside globalization, localization— goods differ across regions, uniform levels of
the increasing demand for local autonomy—is public goods and services across jurisdictions
the main force shaping the world in the first will generally be inefficient. The larger the vari-
decade of the twenty-first century. ance in regional demands for public goods,
In this article, we focus on a specific debate the larger the benefits of FD. This diversifi-
in the FD literature—namely that it improves cation also allows residents to move to the
economic growth performance. We summarize a community that best matches their demand
number of the relevant arguments in Section II, for public goods and services, and local tax
and then review the existing empirical evidence rate. Thus, a “Tiebout sorting” of individuals
on the FD-growth relationship in Section III. We into demand-homogeneous jurisdictions further
argue that the existing literature is deficient in a increases efficiency in resource allocation.
number of respects, for example by rarely test- In addition, subnational governments may be
ing simultaneously for revenue and expenditure subject to closer scrutiny by their constituencies.
decentralization. Section IV presents our data Recent theoretical models stress that one of the
and empirical methodology, and Section V tests major advantages of decentralization is that it
for an effect of FD on economic growth rates leads to greater local accountability, such that
in OECD countries over the period 1972–2005. decentralization may be preferable even in cases
Section VI checks the robustness of our findings of perfect homogeneity of preferences across local
to alternative econometric techniques to deal jurisdictions. This greater accountability may also
with endogeneity, and alternative measures of lead to greater producer efficiency by providing
fiscal decentralization. Section VII summarizes incentives to local governments to innovate
the main conclusions. in the production and supply of public goods
and services (Martı́nez-Vázquez and McNab
2003). Over 30 years ago Oates (1972) argued
II. ARGUMENTS FOR AND AGAINST FISCAL that this allocative efficiency benefit becomes
DECENTRALIZATION
greater when there is a close match between
The basic argument in favor of fiscal decen- revenue discretion and spending assignments at
tralization is that it improves the efficiency of subnational levels. Such matching, it is argued,
the public sector and promotes long-term eco- gives local government a stronger fiscal incentive
nomic development (Oates 1972). The main- to support local market development (Jin, Qian,
stream theory of fiscal federalism, referred to by and Weingast 2005), improves accountability
Oates (2005) as “first-generation” theory argues of subnational governments and reduces the
that decentralization enhances economic effi- distorting effects of intergovernmental transfers
ciency because local governments have better (Shah 1994). Local jurisdictions, therefore, need
knowledge of local conditions and preferences to weigh these benefits of proposed public
in the provision of public goods than national programs against their costs (Oates 2005).
governments due to their physical and insti- Building on the Tiebout (1956) mechanism,
tutional proximity. These informational advan- Brueckner (2006) proposes a model in which FD
tages allow local governments to deliver public leads young and old consumers to live in separate
goods and services that better match local pref- jurisdictions according to their different demands
erences and/or deliver the same public goods for public services: low and high. This sorting
and services at lower cost. These arguments increases after-tax income when young while
are reinforced where public good characteris- reducing it when old, increasing the incentive
tics are local in nature (e.g., sharing economies to save, which, in turn, leads to an increase
or nonexcludability aspects are geographically in investment in human capital and long-term
restricted). The first-generation theory contends economic growth.1 Kappeler and Välilä (2008)
that if some local outputs can produce inter- also find that FD increases productive public
jurisdictional spillover effects, then central gov- investment and reduces the relative share of
ernments should provide matching grants to economically less productive public investment,
decentralized government that would internalize
the benefits. 1. It is not necessary, however, for individuals to have
Secondly, Oates (1999) argues that by diver- different preferences for local public goods or to be relatively
sifying government output according to local mobile to obtain efficiency gains from FD. Thiessen (2003)
argues that as long as subnational governments better
preferences, decentralization may attain higher reflect the priorities of taxpayers, this is sufficient for fiscal
levels of social welfare. If preferences for public decentralization to offer efficiency advantages.
GEMMELL ET AL.: FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION AND GROWTH 1917
because fiscal competition increases the quality associated with local expenditures (Oates 1972);
of public expenditure and affects firms’ location and failure to exploit economies of scale and
decisions. By changing the composition of public scope (Prud’homme 1995).3 More recently,
investment toward the most productive, FD may Inman (2003) contends that local government
therefore enhance economic growth. Finally, may expect to be bailed out from their fiscal
Schaltegger and Feld (2008) show that, contrary to deficits by central governments, given the like-
the popular claim that decentralized governments lihood that failure to rescue local governments
undermine policy makers’ ability to fight fiscal would lower local welfare with some of the
imbalance, FD increases the probability of a political costs placed shifted to central govern-
successful “fiscal consolidation” (lower public ment by voters (Goodspeed 2002). In addition,
debt). In particular, FD increases the credibility FD may lead local governments to engage in a
and accountability of mutually agreed reductions “race to the bottom” on the taxation of mobile
in fiscal imbalances, whereas federal transfer factors, hence under-providing productive public
payments may reduce the costs of making these expenditure (Brueckner 2004), or increase cor-
fiscal adjustments. Thus, FD could increase ruption because officials at the local level are
economic growth if the reduced fiscal imbalances more susceptible to the demands of local inter-
that it encourages have expansionary economic est groups (Prud’homme 1995; Tanzi 1996).4
effects (Giavazzi and Pagano 1996). Finally, to the extent that individuals do not
However, the theoretical effects of FD on move freely between municipalities, at least in
economic growth are not unambiguously pos- the short term, this allows local governments
itive. Firstly, FD may impact negatively on to be relatively unresponsive to local citizens’
the distribution of public resources across juris- preferences.
dictions, because mobility of households and In summary, there are clearly arguments for
businesses can seriously constrain attempts to both positive and negative effects of FD on
redistribute income. Redistributional policies are fiscal efficiency and economic growth rates. It
likely to induce poor individuals to move into is perhaps not surprising then that the empirical
the jurisdiction while higher income individ- literature discussed below has tended to find a
uals (who bear a greater tax burden) move variety of effects in different contexts.
out. Along these lines, Fiva and Rattsø (2006)
find that decisions of Norwegian local govern-
ments about welfare benefit levels depend on III. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON FD AND ECONOMIC
the benefit level in neighboring municipalities GROWTH
and own socioeconomic characteristics.2 To the As a number of authors have noted, there is
extent that income inequality retards economic surprisingly little research devoted to measur-
growth (Persson and Tabellini 1994), FD might ing the impact of FD on economic growth rates,
negatively affect growth by making redistribu- given that economic efficiency is the central
tion more difficult. Furthermore, concentration argument used to support FD (Bardhan 2002;
of public goods, with supra-local spillovers, in a Martı́nez-Vázquez and McNab 2003). Among
few geographical locations can also inhibit per
capita growth because regional inequalities in 3. On the other hand, Gramlich (1993) claims that if
infrastructure, education, healthcare, and other economic shocks are asymmetric, then decentralized systems
public services may prevent full use of fac- make it easier to achieve macroeconomic stability. Shah
tors of production (Thiessen 2003). In this case, (2006) also suggests that central bank independence is more
probably attained under decentralized systems, because the
more centralized public sectors might redis- pressure of a unique central government diminishes, leading
tribute resources across jurisdictions leading to to the presence of multiple governments with diverse and
a more efficient distribution. conflicting interests. In this line, Treisman (2000) shows
that, by creating additional veto players, federal structure
Other economic arguments against FD in- may lock in existing patterns of monetary policy, leading
clude possible damage to macroeconomic sta- to slower growth of inflation among (mostly developed)
bility via fiscal policy coordination problems countries that started with low inflation. Finally, Martı́nez-
(Tanzi 1996); inter-jurisdictional “leakages” Vázquez and McNab (2003) maintain that a well-designed
fiscal decentralization system (preventing local governments
to borrow without controls) avoids fiscal systems damaging
2. Nevertheless, these authors do not find that this macroeconomic stability.
strategic interaction among local governments results in 4. Martı́nez-Vázquez and McNab (2003) dispute this
under-provision or even a race to the bottom in welfare argument claiming that local officials are more visible to
spending, because of the centralized grants financing of the their constituents and thus corrupt behavior is more visible
local governments in the Norwegian system. than at the central level of government.
1918 ECONOMIC INQUIRY
existing studies a mixed picture emerges of the revenues/expenditures are typically controlled or
effect of decentralization on growth rates. Initial mandated by central governments.6
contributions tended to find that FD has a neg- By contrast, recent studies have focused on
ative or negligible effect on economic growth a more restricted measure of FD: local gov-
(Davoodi and Zou 1998; Jin and Zou 2005; ernment spending net of conditional or dis-
Woller and Philips 1998; Xie, Zou, and Davoodi cretionary transfers (Ebel and Yilmaz 2004;
1999; Zhang and Zou 1998). These authors Meloche, Vaillacourt, and Yilmaz 2004) and
interpret their results as an indication that FD is local revenues over which subnational gov-
already high, such that further decentralization ernments have some degree of control over
may be harmful for economic growth. However, the tax rate, the tax base, or both (Akai and
many of these studies focus on developing or Sakata 2002; Ebel and Yilmaz 2004; Meloche,
transition economies, with China a specific focus Vaillacourt, and Yilmaz 2004; Thornton, 2007).
of attention.5 Lin and Liu (2000) and Jin, Qian, and Weingast
A number of factors may explain this nega- (2005) use the marginal retention rate of locally
tive effect. Firstly, as Davoodi and Zou (1998) collected revenue to reflect the degree of FD
and Zhang and Zou (1998) argue, FD may be arguing that this captures the fiscal incentives
particularly harmful for economic growth in the for local government to promote local business
early stages of development, where the adminis- development. Using these narrower FD mea-
trative capability of local governments is insuf- sures, a positive impact of FD on economic
ficient, local officials may not be responsive to growth has found more support.7
preferences of local residents, and local gov- Recent literature has started to examine sam-
ernments in those countries may be constrained ples of OECD alone, and thus is more related
by central government. Secondly, fiscal policy- to our work. Thiessen (2003) finds evidence
growth effects may be more related to the func- of a growth-maximizing degree of FD. That
tional composition of government spending or is, growth is enhanced by converging toward
type of tax rather than to fiscal decentraliza- intermediate levels of decentralization—from
tion per se. If subnational governments spend either high or low initial levels. Thornton (2007)
more on items with low growth effects such argues that much of the literature has not dis-
as social welfare, whereas national governments tinguished appropriately between administrative
spend more on growth enhancing items such as and substantive FD. Adam, Delis, and Kammas
infrastructure, then we could expect to observe (2008) find that public sector efficiency is
a negative, endogenous relationship between FD increasing with FD, whereas fiscal dependency
and economic growth. of local government on intergovernmental trans-
More recent studies, especially those examin- fers affects efficiency negatively. Baskaran and
ing the U.S. or OECD countries, find some evi- Feld (2009) find that fiscal decentralization is
dence of a positive relationship between FD and generally unrelated to economic growth, and
growth; see Akai and Sakata (2002), Thiessen
(2003), Ebel and Yilmaz (2004), Meloche, 6. Furthermore, Lin and Liu (2000) criticize the measure
Vaillacourt, and Yilmaz (2004), Iimi (2005), Jin, employed in Zhang and Zou (1998)—the ratio of provincial
spending to total central spending—because a large province
Qian, and Weingast (2005) and Thornton (2007). would appear to have a high degree of fiscal decentralization
One source of difference in results between the merely by being more populous. More generally, the legal
early, and recent, studies may be the FD mea- distinction between locally and centrally controlled public
expenditures or taxes may not be a reliable guide to the
sure used. Recognizing that high subnational extent of decentralization of decision-making in practice.
spending and revenue shares do not necessarily Thus, central governments may formally devolve spending
reflect high local autonomy, and if autonomy is responsibility to local levels but circumscribe the use of
those expenditures with a variety of legal or administra-
the key growth-enhancing characteristic of FD, tive conditions. In the United States, for example, Federal
then early studies probably overstated the degree “maintenance of effort” requirements now preclude U.S.
of effective decentralization because some local states from making major adjustments to Medicaid pro-
grams, including those parts that are state funded.
7. An exception to these fiscal decentralization measures
5. On China, see also Lin and Liu (2000) and Jin, Qian, is Stansel (2005) who focuses on the horizontal dispersion
and Weingast (2005) who find some evidence of positive of power among lower tiers of government using the number
growth effects of FD, and the critique of early studies of county, municipal, and township administrations per
by Akai and Sakata (2002). A detailed summary of the 100,000 residents in 314 U.S. metropolitan areas. Using
empirical evidence can be found in the working paper ver- this measure, Stansel (2005) finds a positive and significant
sion of this article at http://www.ief.es/documentos/recursos/ effect of FD on the growth of both population and real per
publicaciones/papeles_trabajo/2009_06.pdf. capita income.
GEMMELL ET AL.: FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION AND GROWTH 1919
that, if anything, subfederal control over shared Stegarescu (2005) and construct two measures
taxes leads to more economic growth. of expenditure decentralization and three mea-
Using more flexible dynamic econometric sures of revenue decentralization.10 In all cases,
methods we show below that, for a variety of these annualized decentralization measures are
measures of local fiscal autonomy, an important calculated as shares of consolidated general gov-
characteristic appears to be convergence toward ernment spending or revenue. For expenditures
similar levels of revenue and spending decen- we calculate:
tralization. That is, our evidence suggests raising (1) Direct spendingt
revenue decentralization and/or lowering spend-
ing decentralization would be growth-enhancing Subnational spending t
on average for OECD countries. As far as we are −Transfers from subnational
aware, our empirical evidence is the first to sup- to central government t
=
port Oates’ (1972) hypothesis that FD efficiency Consolidated general
benefits become greater when there is a close government spending t
match between revenue discretion and spending
(2) Self − financed spending t
assignments at subnational levels. Jin and Zou
(2005) also tested simultaneously for growth Subnational spendingt
effects of expenditure and revenue decentral- − Grants from other
ization across Chinese provinces, but they governments t
reject Oates’ hypothesis. We obtain our results = .
Consolidated general
after controlling for endogeneity; we find some government spending t
effects running from growth to fiscal decentral-
ization in line with the arguments of Bahl and Equation (1), “Direct spending” in year t, sub-
Linn (1992) and Martı́nez-Vázquez and McNab tracts transfers paid to central government in that
(2003) that efficiency gains from, and demand year, thus reporting amounts spent directly at
for, FD emerge as economies grow. Most pre- each local administrative level.11 Equation (2)
vious empirical FD studies have not controlled treats subnational expenditure net of grants
for endogeneity, at least in a systematic way, received from central government as “self-
an exception being Iimi (2005).8 Using flexible financed spending,” reflecting spending from
dynamic panel methods, and the pooled mean
accounting. However, the information available from this
group (PMG) in particular, recognizes that effi- source starts in 1990 or 1995 for most of the countries. We
ciency gains may take some time to materialize have extended this time-series using annual IMF, Govern-
and occur at different rates in different countries. ment Finance Statistics (GFS), data. This source covers a
longer period, from 1972 to 1998 or 1999, but is based on
the cash criterion. Using the rate of variation of the GFS to
extend back the OECD data is a sensible procedure because
IV. DECENTRALIZATION MEASURES, DATA
the coefficient of correlation between the overlapped period
AND ECONOMETRIC METHODS of the 1990s is always 0.94 or higher, except for Australia
(0.87) and New Zealand (0.81). Indeed, cash and accrual
A. Decentralization Measures accounting coincide over the medium term because com-
mitments undertaken end up materializing in payments. For
The data used in our econometric analysis is Mexico, we use IMF cash data for the whole period, because
based on OECD General Government Accounts there is no information about this country in the OECD
(various editions). We have extended this time- and Greece has no overlapping years for cash and accrual
series using annual IMF (2001), Government data. These two countries, plus New Zealand, are excluded
from the robustness checks. The dataset is available at:
Finance Statistics (GFS) data.9 We follow http://www.victoria.ac.nz/sacl/staff/norman-gemmell.aspx
and http://www.fcjs.urjc.es/departamentos/areas/profesores/
8. Zhang and Zou (1998), Xie et al. (1999), Lin and Liu ficha.asp?id=trqssvwuur.
(2000), Thiessen (2003), and Jin et al. (2005) acknowledge 10. Sorens (2011) provides an interesting discussion
potential endogeneity bias but do not control for it—due of the Stegarescu (2005) measures of decentralization and
to small sample sizes and the difficulty of finding good constructs alternative measures.
instruments. Lin and Liu (2000) show that, for their case, the 11. These transfers refer to the category, “Grants
Hausman test of the potential endogeneity of the FD variable to other general government units” (Government Finance
fails to reject the hypothesis that the marginal retention Statistics Manual 2001). They can be current or capital
rate is exogenous. Jin, Qian, and Weingast (2005) regress grants, depending on purpose, and they include the tax levied
marginal retention rates on lagged growth rates and find a by one level of government but transferred to other levels
negative rather than positive coefficient, rejecting a positive of government. Transfers from subnational governments to
upward bias in their estimated FD growth effect for China. central governments are only significant for Spain and, espe-
9. The OECD General Government Accounts uses cially, for Greece. For the rest of the sample it accounts for
accrual accounting, providing a better picture of commit- a small share of subnational government spending (average:
ments undertaken by governments than traditional cash 1.9%).
1920 ECONOMIC INQUIRY
“own resources” (Stegarescu 2005). As a mea- the addition of nontax revenues. According to
sure of locally financed spending it may be Stegarescu (2005) these nontax revenues may
regarded as a more appropriate indicator of local include user charges, operational surplus of pub-
autonomy. lic enterprises, and capital revenue. This allows
On the revenue side, a measure of “own two additional revenue decentralization mea-
revenue” decentralization is: sures to be calculated: autonomous own revenue
(3) Own revenue t (Equation (4) below) and the autonomous plus
shared own revenue (Equation (5) below).
Subnational revenue t − Grants from
other governments t (4) Autonomous own revenuet
=
Consolidated general Owntax revenue(A)t
government revenue t + Nontax and capital revenuet
=
Equation (3) subtracts grants received from Consolidated general
other levels of government from total subna- government revenuet
tional revenues, to capture “own resources.”12 (5) Autonomous and Shared own revenuet
However, there are also locally collected taxes
over which local governments have little or no Own tax revenue(A)t
control (Sorens 2011). Arguably, these taxes + Shared tax revenue(B1 and B2)t
should also be subtracted to measure autonomous + Nontax and capital revenuet
=
local resources appropriately. Unfortunately, Consolidated general
there is no official OECD data distinguishing government revenuet
between locally collected taxes controlled by local
versus central governments for a broad sample of Equation (4) is the share of taxes for which sub-
countries.13 However, following the methodology national governments determine the tax base/
of OECD (1999, 2001) for Central and Eastern rates (category A), plus local nontax and cap-
European Countries, Stegarescu (2005) provides ital revenue. The autonomous-plus-shared own
data for 21 OECD countries from 1975 to 2000 revenue (Equation (5)) is the share of taxes in
on the locally collected taxes, decomposed into Equation (4), plus shared taxes where the rev-
the following categories: enue split is determined, or consented, by sub-
national governments (categories B1 and B2).
A Tax bases or/and rates determined by These two revenue decentralization measures
subnational governments provide a narrower definition of local auton-
B Tax revenues shared between subnational and omy in public revenues but are only avail-
central governments able for a more limited sample of countries
of which: and years. Thus, for Equations (1)–(3) above
B1 shared taxes: subnational level determines
revenue split our sample is composed of annual data for 23
B2 shared taxes: subnational level has to consent OECD countries from the early 1970s to 2005.
to revenue split For Equations (4) and (5) data are restricted to
B3 shared taxes: central government unilaterally 18 countries from 1975 to the late 1990s. We
determines revenue split therefore use Equations (4) and (5) as robust-
C Tax bases or/and rates determined by central
governments
ness checks on the other indicators.
B. Data
Extending the analysis to consider decentraliza-
tion for all sources of public revenue requires Table 1 shows the period averages for each
FD Indicator by OECD country. These cover
12. Ebel and Yilmaz (2004) contend that unconditional state and local governments combined since
transfers, and transfers given under objective criteria, could only nine countries have a federal system show-
be included under revenue decentralization. However, we ing state spending and revenue separately. Each
subtract all transfers to leave only those revenues generated
by subnational governments and which are not discretionar-
indicator shows substantial variation across
ily fixed by central government (Stegarescu 2005). The other countries, with Canada, Switzerland, and the
indicator used in the literature, the marginal retention rate, United States revealing the greatest degrees
is not directly observable; calculation would require simu- of FD. In those countries, subnational govern-
lations for each type of revenue; see Thiessen (2003).
13. It is available for some Central and Eastern European ments account for approximately half of the
Countries for 1997–2000; see OECD (1999, 2001). consolidated public spending and revenue. By
GEMMELL ET AL.: FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION AND GROWTH 1921
TABLE 1
State and Local Shares in Aggregate Government Spending and Revenue Across OECD Countries:
1970–2005
Own Calculations Based on OECD National Stegarescu (2005): Calculations Based
Accounts and IMF GFS (1972–2005) on IMF, GFS (1975–2000)
State and State and Local State and State and Local State and Local
Local Direct Self-financed Local Own Autonomous Autonomous and
Country Spending Spending Revenue Revenue Shared Revenue
Australia 44.6 22.2 27.4 27.4 27.4
Austria 30.9 23.8 27.4 14.3 35.7
Belgium 22.5 10.2 10.4 14.4 23.6
Canada 60.5 51.0 52.2 55.3 55.3
Denmark 56.3 31.7 32.5 31.1 31.1
Finland 37.8 27.2 26.6 32.0 32.0
France 16.0 11.6 12.1 18.3 18.3
Germanya 41.6 35.6 35.1 24.5 53.3
Greece 4.8 4.8 3.6 — —
Iceland 22.3 19.7 21.5 22.2 22.2
Ireland 32.5 15.9 14.4 10.5 10.5
Italy 24.9 13.5 11.3 7.7 7.7
Luxembourg 14.4 9.5 8.6 11.3 11.3
Mexico 18.5 18.2 20.6 — —
Netherlands 34.8 11.7 11.6 10.7 10.7
New Zealand 11.6 11.4 10.8 9.3 9.3
Norway 35.0 29.0 24.9 26.4 26.4
Portugal 10.7 7.5 8.1 5.4 5.4
Spain 25.7 13.0 15.6 14.0 17.2
Sweden 44.2 35.3 33.6 41.4 41.4
Switzerland 57.6 50.7 48.0 62.8 65.6
United Kingdom 28.4 12.9 12.9 15.7 15.7
United States 46.8 46.8 41.6 45.0 45.0
Unweighted mean 31.4 22.3 22.2 23.8 26.9
a
Data for Germany before 1991 refer to West Germany.
Source: OECD: National Accounts of OECD Countries—Vol. IV: General Government Accounts. IMF: Government
Finance Statistics Yearbook, and Stegarescu (2005).
contrast, Greece, Portugal, New Zealand, and depend on central government transfers to
Luxembourg have highly centralized govern- finance their spending. Self-financed subnational
ments which control more than 85% of the pub- spending is generally close to the subnational
lic sector size. own revenues; that is, subnational governments
Differences across countries tend to be higher do not run large deficits after taking into account
toward the beginning of the period. For example, transfers from central governments.14
the standard deviation of logs of state and local Over 1974–2003 the data reveal quite dif-
direct spending—the usual σ-convergence indi- ferent patterns for revenue and spending decen-
cator—decreased from 0.77 in 1974 to 0.68 in tralization: Figure 1 shows annual mean values
2003 (from 0.74 to 0.63 for self-financed spend- across the OECD countries. Direct and self-
ing). The dispersion in own revenue also dimin- financed spending decentralization in the OECD
ished from 0.31 to 0.27. Countries with high decreased on average during the 1970s and early
(low) initial levels of decentralization generally
reduced (increased) these, confirming the con-
14. Surprisingly, the Stegarescu (2005) database shows
vergence trend in the FD process identified by higher subnational revenue shares than our OECD-based
Thiessen (2003). database despite the fact that the Stegarescu measure defines
An important feature of these data is that, with local revenues more narrowly. This could be due to different
the exception of Mexico, state and local direct countries/time periods and/or differences in the main data
source (IMF Government Finance Statistics vs. OECD
spending shares are higher than state and local National Accounts). There are also numerous missing values
revenue shares. That is, subnational governments for some of the 21 countries in the Stegarescu database.
1922 ECONOMIC INQUIRY
TABLE 2
Decentralization and Economic Growth: Pooled Mean Group Regressions (1972–2005)
Regression [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9]
Decentralized Self- Self- Direct Self-financed Self-
Spending Measure Direct Direct financed financed Orthog Orthog Direct financed
PMG PMG PMG PMG PMG PMG PMG PMG PMG
Method (2 Lags) (2 Lags) (2 Lags) (2 Lags) (2 Lags) (2 Lags) (2 Lags) (2 Lags) (2 Lags)
General revenue ratio −0.052 −0.036 −0.053 −0.042 −0.042 −0.053 −0.050 −0.067 −0.083
(−4.41) (−3.15) (−4.50) (−3.43) (−3.56) (4.50) (4.24) (−1.51) (−2.04)
State and local −0.050 −0.074 −0.019 −0.052 −0.497 −0.550 State −0.141 −0.104
spending (−3.80) (−4.92) (−1.30) (−2.24) (2.19) (2.40) spending (−3.92) (−1.52)
State and local −0.014 0.056 0.060 0.353 0.341 State 0.067 −0.016
own revenue (−0.76) (2.83) (1.98) (2.84) (2.79) own revenue (1.02) (−0.22)
Local −0.190 −0.162
spending (−3.07) (−1.67)
Local 0.417 0.379
own revenue (2.96) (3.12)
ECONOMIC INQUIRY
Investment ratio 0.053 0.051 0.051 0.066 0.080 0.051 0.528 0.411 0.183
(2.28) (2.25) (2.28) (2.66) (3.47) (2.28) (11.61) (5.04) (2.60)
Employment growth 0.637 0.637 0.585 0.577 0.535 0.585 0.061 0.941 0.781
(13.44) (15.03) (13.28) (11.83) (11.32) (13.28) (2.65) (11.68) (9.60)
Countries/observations 23/726 23/726 23/726 23/726 23/726 23/726 23/726 9/283 9/283
Note: t-statistics in parentheses below parameters. The dependent variable in all regressions is the annual rate of GDP growth.
GEMMELL ET AL.: FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION AND GROWTH 1925
current settings they cannot confirm whether variable. Thus, in column 6 we transform sub-
raising revenue shares to current spending share national government direct spending into a new
levels, or vice versa, would necessarily increase variable in which the effect of the constant is
growth. However, they do confirm that reduc- removed and transform subnational government
tions in state/local spending shares and financing revenue into a new variable in which both the
a greater fraction of this spending by state/local effects of the constant and subnational govern-
taxes would be growth-enhancing, consistent ment spending are removed.23 The interpretation
with Oates’ “matching” hypothesis. of the orthogonalized variable is the independent
Including either revenue shares or spend- variable in question minus the linear influences
ing shares (columns 1, 2, and 4) reveals that of the variables upon which it is orthogonal-
false conclusions may be drawn when one FD ized. Results show that we find again a negative
variable is omitted. Including only state and growth impact of spending decentralization and
local spending continues to generate a negative a positive impact for revenue decentralization.
parameter but which is not always significantly We reach the same conclusion when orthogo-
different from zero. Including only state and nalizing self-financed subnational spending and
local revenues appears essentially to generate subnational revenue in column 7.
a zero (but negatively signed) growth effect. It Columns 8 and 9 disaggregate state and local
could be argued that our “matching” evidence is direct spending and revenues into their two com-
due to collinearity between revenue and spend- ponents. This reduces the sample to the nine
ing decentralization—tending toward equal and federal countries having separate state and local
opposite signed parameters. Indeed, subnational spending.24 With one exception (state own rev-
direct spending and own revenue reveal a 0.89 enues becomes zero) we continue to find nega-
between-country correlation and a 0.63 within- tive spending and positive revenue share effects
country correlation. In order to analyze whether associated with the state and local components.
these high correlations are driving our results The largest parameters are associated with the
we implement the regression collinearity diag- local administration level, because the difference
nostic procedures proposed by Belsley (1991), between spending and revenue is higher for local
based on the interrelationships among the inde- government than for the state level. This is con-
pendent variables. As a rule of thumb, Belsley sistent with there being greater efficiency gains
(1991) suggests that if the condition number from convergence toward equality between sub-
is 30 or higher, then there may be collinear- national spending and revenue when the initial
ity problems.21 At 19.5 the higher condition mismatch is higher.
number for our set of variables is well below These results again indicate that a conver-
this value. Using the variation inflation factor
gence toward more equal expenditure and rev-
(VIF)22 leads to the same conclusion: the high-
enue decentralization, at both the local and state
est VIF is 4.69 (subnational government spend-
level, would enhance economic growth, rein-
ing), well below the suggested rule of thumb
forcing the importance of testing for the growth
of 10, from which collinearity problems should
effects of spending and revenue decentraliza-
be further investigated (Hair et al. 1995). Nev-
tion simultaneously. Surprisingly, few previous
ertheless, as a further check, we orthogonalized
empirical studies have tested directly for both
subnational spending and revenue by creating
a set of orthogonal variables, using a modi- shares simultaneously; Jin and Zou (2005) is an
fied Gram-Schmidt procedure (Golub and Van exception. Note that our evidence does not nec-
Loan 1996), such that the effects of the pre- essarily imply that it is optimal for the degree
ceding variable have been removed from each of decentralization to be equal for revenues
and expenditures—a “zero gap.” It does imply,
21. The condition number is the condition index with the given observed values in OECD countries on
largest value; it equals the square root of the largest eigen- average, that a marginal shift in the direction of
value divided by the smallest eigenvalue. A condition num- closer alignment of these subnational expendi-
ber of 1 means that independent variables are orthogonal.
Large values of condition number indicate rank deficiency tures and revenues would enhance growth.
of the independent variables matrix and that estimates are
sensitive to small changes in the data. This number has been
obtained applying the Coldiag2 command in Stata. 23. We orthogonalize these variables using the Stata
22. VIF is an index which measures how much the command Orthog.
variance of a coefficient is inflated by the existence of multi- 24. As the PMG calculates means of individual country
collinearity. Large VIF values indicate that severe effects are estimations, it is not possible to introduce variables taking
present. zero values for a country in every year.
1926 ECONOMIC INQUIRY
TABLE 3
Decentralization and Economic Growth: Instrumental Variable Regressions (1972–2005)
Instruments: 3rd and 4th lagged values
Regression [1] [2] [3] [4]
Decentralized Self- Self-
Spending Measure Direct financed Direct financed
PMG/IV PMG/IV PMG/IV PMG/IV
Method (2 Lags) (2 Lags) (2 Lags) (2 Lags)
General revenue ratio −0.004 −0.017 0.084 −0.091
(−0.28) (−1.17) (2.56) (−3.51)
State and local spending −0.083 −0.082 State −0.112 0.068
(−7.04) (−3.10) spending (−7.87) (1.09)
State and local own revenue 0.119 0.115 State 0.137 −0.142
(5.81) (3.53) own revenue (5.25) (−2.21)
Local 0.114 −0.415
spending (1.72) (−5.54)
Local 0.021 0.566
own revenue (0.24) (6.29)
Investment ratio −0.091 −0.064 −0.215 −0.012
(−3.38) (−2.27) (−4.16) (−0.19)
Employment growth 0.525 0.654 0.528 0.594
(14.44) (15.57) (10.73) (10.99)
Countries/Observations 23/645 23/645 9/254 9/254
Correlated with the included endogenous variables: Shea partial R 2 (overall R 2 in brackets)
Shea partial R 2 : revenue ratio 0.60 0.55 0.56 0.43
[0.73] [0.72] [0.73] [0.74]
Shea partial R 2 : state and local 0.46 0.27 State 0.32 0.02
expenditure [0.70] [0.59] Spending [0.82] [0.55]
Shea partial R 2 : state and local 0.31 0.24 State 0.24 0.03
revenue [0.61] [0.59] Own revenue [0.66] [0.62]
2
Shea partial R : local Local 0.39 0.28
expenditure Spending [0.50] [0.56]
Shea partial R 2 : local revenue Local 0.37 0.26
Own revenue [0.57] [0.57]
Shea partial R 2 : investment 0.40 0.37 0.40 0.32
[0.50] [0.50] [0.50] [0.51]
Anderson test 216.01 174.29 169.84 16.47
p value p value p value p value
.00 .00 .00 .02
Weak identification test 30.23 23.62 15.20 1.31
Orthogonal to the error process
Sargan test 1.251 5.864 7.829 7.216
p value p value p value p value
.87 .21 .25 .30
Notes: t-statistics in parentheses below parameters. The dependent variable in all regressions is the annual rate of GDP
growth.
positive, respectively, typically significantly dif- also simply reflect the fact that local govern-
ferent from zero. ments collect less from growth-distorting taxes
than central governments. Hence our data may
B. Using “Autonomous Revenue” Definitions simply reflect the evidence of Kneller, Bleaney,
and Gemmell (1999) and Bleaney, Gemmell,
The availability of the Stegarescu (2005) and Kneller (2001) that “distortionary” taxes
database allows us to examine Equations (4) and retard growth while “productive” expenditures
(5) discussed above—based on definitions of enhance it, rather than the administration level
“autonomous” and central/local “shared” rev- at which these fiscal aggregates are spent or col-
enues. Five countries are dropped from our pre- lected.
vious sample: Greece and Mexico (no data), and To investigate this, we follow the methodol-
Italy, New Zealand, and Portugal (time-series ogy of Kneller, Bleaney, and Gemmell (1999)
insufficient to include in PMG estimations).29 and Bleaney, Gemmell, and Kneller (2001) to
This reduces the sample to 18 countries and produce an aggregate “productive spending”
384 observations. Disaggregation into state and
category—the sum of general public services,
local governments is also not available. Never-
defense, public order and safety, environment
theless, the Stegarescu (2005) database is poten-
protection, housing and community amenities,
tially helpful to check the robustness of our
health and education. We also aggregate govern-
earlier results to narrower definitions of subna-
ment revenue sources into “distortionary” and
tional revenues, capturing aspects of subnational
“nondistortionary” taxes and “other revenues”
“control” (Equation (4)) and “shared revenues”
(see Kneller, Bleaney, and Gemmell 1999 for
(Equation (5)).
discussion), where the former is composed of
Table 4 reports results equivalent to those
current taxes on income, wealth and capital and
reported in Table 3 for our larger sample. Using
social contributions and so-called “nondistor-
either Equations (4) or (5) again suggests that
tionary” taxes are mainly indirect taxes such
both greater direct and self-financed spending
as value-added tax (VAT). These aggregations
retards growth, whereas greater autonomous rev-
are only possible for European countries (from
enues (either alone or with shared revenues)
1995), based on Eurostat data for the functional
enhance growth. General government revenue is
composition of government spending and the
again robustly negatively associated with GDP
composition of government revenues by levels
growth. It would appear then that changing the
of administration.
FD measures (direct vs. self-financed spend-
ing, own revenues vs. autonomous own rev- Our calculations show the share of state and
enues), changing the data source (OECD vs. local government in total productive spending
IMF), and changing the sample (23 OECD vs. in the EU-15 countries over 1995–2004 to be
18 OECD vs. 9 “federalist” countries) does 35%. There is some variation across types of
not alter the conclusion: fiscal decentralization spending; the local share is particularly high for
enhances economic growth where this involves education, public order, and safety. The share of
moving toward a closer match between subna- productive expenditure is significantly above the
tional spending and subnational revenues. equivalent share of total nonproductive spending
(28%). Using an “economic” classification leads
to a similar conclusion: local and state govern-
C. Government Spending/Revenue Composition ments in the EU-15 accounted for a significantly
by Levels of Administration higher share of government capital formation
Our evidence of negative expenditure decen- (68%) than for intermediate consumption (3%),
tralization effects on growth could be due to compensation of employees (6%), or transfers
the fact that local governments spend less (4%). This would seem to suggest that the neg-
on growth-enhancing functions than central ative effect of expenditure decentralization on
governments, rather than being more ineffi- economic growth we find is unlikely to occur
cient. Analogously, evidence of positive rev- because of a higher proportion of nonproductive
enue decentralization effects on growth could spending within local and state budgets.
A similar pattern emerges for revenue decen-
29. In addition Greece, Mexico, and New Zealand are tralization. For distortionary taxes, we find
the three countries for which extending the data back that local and state governments in the EU-15
has been more difficult (see footnote 9). Table 4 shows
that excluding these three countries does not change the collected 14% of all distortionary taxes dur-
econometric results. ing 1995–2004, and 28% of “other revenues”
GEMMELL ET AL.: FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION AND GROWTH 1929
TABLE 4
Decentralization and Economic Growth: IV Regressions Using Stegarescu Variables and Sample
(1975–2000)
Regression [1] [2] [3] [4]
PMG/IV PMG/IV PMG/IV PMG/IV
Method (1 lag) (1 lag) (1 lag) (1 lag)
General revenue ratio −0.099 −0.099 −0.064 −0.054
(−3.88) (−2.94) (−2.32) (−1.84)
State and local direct spending −0.077 −0.075
(−5.07) (−3.73)
State and local self-financed spending −0.078 −0.039
(−3.34) (−1.54)
Autonomous own revenues 0.101 0.085
(5.87) (6.14)
Autonomous and shared own revenues 0.037 0.036
(2.92) (3.76)
Investment −0.014 −0.058 0.019 −0.000
(−0.58) (−2.04) (0.86) (−0.02)
Employment growth 0.689 0.717 0.695 0.740
(28.26) (25.74) (28.47) (28.48)
Openness −0.021 −0.017 −0.034 −0.040
(−4.58) (−3.01) (−7.30) (−7.34)
Inflation −0.114 −0.108 −0.154 −0.177
(−5.35) (−4.61) (−7.05) (−7.48)
Sample N = 18 N = 18 N = 18 N = 18
Observation = Observation = Observation = Observation =
359 359 359 359
Correlated with the included endogenous variables: Shea partial R 2 (overall R 2 in brackets)
Shea partial R 2 : revenue ratio 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
[0.95] [0.95] [0.95] [0.95]
Shea partial R 2 : direct exp 0.92 0.86
[0.97] [0.98]
Shea partial R 2 : self-financed exp 0.93 0.72
[0.97] [0.98]
Shea partial R 2 : own tax 0.93 0.88
[0.98] [0.95]
Shea partial R 2 : own and shared tax 0.86 0.68
[0.98] [0.95]
2
Shea partial R : investment 0.71 0.71 0.69 0.66
[0.72] [0.72] [0.72] [0.73]
Shea partial R 2 : openness 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.97
[0.99] [0.99] [0.99] [0.99]
Anderson test 397.80 397.49 370.28 304.92
p value p value p value p value
.00 .00 .00 .00
Weak identification test 75.15 75.04 66.46 48.60
Orthogonal error process
Sargan test 7.715 6.803 6.704 5.748
p value p value p value p value
.17 .24 .24 .33
(Kneller, Bleaney, and Gemmell show the latter 1999). The positive revenue decentralization
also tend to be growth-retarding). By contrast, growth effect found in Tables 2 and 4 is unlikely
state and local governments only collected 11% therefore to be explained by a higher proportion
of all nondistortionary taxes (growth-neutral of nondistortionary taxes among state and local
according to Kneller, Bleaney, and Gemmell revenues.
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