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Table of Contents
Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... i
1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Current financial position ................................................................................................................... 2
1.2 Forecast of future financial performance ............................................................................................ 2
1.3 Estimation of equity value and key assumption.................................................................................. 4
1.4 Valuation – key assumptions, economic factors and risk underlying the valuation ........................... 4
2. Historical Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 4
2.1 Business strategy ................................................................................................................................. 4
2.2 Industry analysis ................................................................................................................................. 4
2.3 The competitive environment ............................................................................................................. 5
2.4 Financial performance ........................................................................................................................ 6
2.5 Financial risk....................................................................................................................................... 8
2.6 Future prospects .................................................................................................................................. 8
3.0 Valuation of shares ................................................................................................................................. 8
3.1 Dividend Discount Model ................................................................................................................... 8
3.2 Residual Income Model ...................................................................................................................... 9
3.3 Free Cash Flow Model ........................................................................................................................ 9
4. Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 10
5. References ............................................................................................................................................... 11
6. Appendix ................................................................................................................................................. 13
1.1 Introduction
Associated British Foods plc (ABF) is a British multinational company operating in the foods processing
industry. The company is very old with a large size, employing 137,000 employees (ABF, 2019). ABF
has a strong retail division with the brand name “Primark” which has 359 stores across Western Europe
and the United States (Statista, 2019). Further, it has operations in 50 countries almost all across the globe
(ABF, 2019). Although ABF is primarily into the food processing business, over the years it has
diversified into many markets. It now classifies its business into five main segments vis Grocery, Sugar,
Agriculture, Ingredients and Retail with combined group sales of £15.6 billion (ABF, 2019). The
company has done lots of mergers and acquisitions throughout in its history. The major ones are Aerated
Bread Company in 1955, Fine fare in 1963, and Patak’s Indian foods the most recent one in 2007 (ABF,
2019). Further, ABF has more than 20 brands and 18 subsidiaries (ABF Annual Report , 2019). Majority
of shares are owned by Wittington Investments. The report aims to make a fundamental analysis of the
company to support the decision to buy, sell or hold the stock. It is argued that the shares be purchased as
the valuation shows that the share is underpriced. The report will discuss the current financial position,
forecasts, historical analysis, industry and competitive analysis including risk and the valuation of shares
using different models.
Figure 1: ABF worldwide stores from 2014 to 2018. Source: Statista (2018)
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1.1 Current financial position
Group revenue in FY 2018 was almost the same as the level of 2017. With the operating profit of £1.4
billion, the operating profit ratio is of 9%. The Net profit after tax was £1,000 million. Total equity of the
company stood £9,296 million by the end of June 2018. This makes the Return on Equity of 10.7%.
Considering the economic condition in the UK and rest of Europe, the ROE is impressive. Besides equity
ABF has secured finances from long term loans to the extent of £778 million which is a combination of
fixed and floating rate instruments. Most of these loans are USD denominated with a fixed rate of interest
(ABF Annual Report , 2019). The fixed rates are risky as they do not account for the changing economic
environment and as the economic scenario in the UK is skeptical from the Brexit referendum, the position
is vulnerable. However, the total debt is merely 8.36% of total equity (DE = 0.08:1), the impact of any
adversary will be limited. The company paid only £50 million as finance charges for both long term and
short term loans (£419), which indicates that the burden of debt on a company’s profit is very low. Total
current assets are worth £5,285 million with main investment in inventory, trade receivables and CCE as
against total current liabilities of £3,248 million which includes trade payables of £2,529 million. The
current ratio is 1.63:1, which indicates a healthy liquidity position. The company has managed its trade
payables well. Trade payables to trade receivables ratio is 1.76, this indicates that the company has
secured many favorable terms from its creditors and given shorter time to their customers. Working
capital management is very effective. The analysis revealed that the company’s profitability, liquidity,
solvency, and operating effectiveness is very sound and it is fundamentally strong.
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15,574 15,357
57%
48%
25%
14.61%
1.41% 4.68%
-1.10% -2.79%
2018
-16% 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
-33%
8%
7%
6% 6%
5%
4%
PAT ratio
3
1.3 Estimation of equity value and key assumption
The equity value of the company is calculated in the later section of the report. The value is arrived using
different valuation models. The book value is much lower than the market value and value arrived at
using FCF is quite higher. It is estimated that the equity value of the share will be around £50.
1.4 Valuation – key assumptions, economic factors and risk underlying the valuation
Callen (2016) argues that the valuation of a business involves estimating the economic value that will be
driven by it in the future. So, it depends upon what a business can earn in the future. The fundamental
assumption in the valuation of business includes but not limited to going concern i.e. the business will be
carried on for a foreseeable future; reinvestment assumption i.e. all the money earned will be reinvested,
however, it is not necessarily a precondition. The dividend paid often taken as the base upon which the
whole valuation is done. Further, there is some macroeconomic and industry-specific assumption that has
to be taken care of (Jackowicz, et al., 2017). Valuation also has its own risk. The most significant is the
risk of overvaluation of assets (Sorensen & Jagannathan, 2015). This can have catastrophic consequences
as the overall net assets will be inflated. It is very important to ensure that the data is complete, market
instability factors are accounted for and proper scenario planning is done, and the financial model
prepared is sound and effective.
2. Historical Analysis
ABF was incorporated in 1935 in London (ABF, 2019). The key strategy of the company remained
diversification, acquisitions, and demergers. It made its presence in the Americas, southern Africa, Asia,
Australia and Europe (ABF, 2019). The five major segments are run by different teams with complete
anatomy. ABF manufactures globally but has retail stores in Europe and the US only. Leadership has
played an important role in the success of the company. The board includes 8 members team currently led
by the CEO George Weston and headed by Michael McLintock. Mr. Weston has served long and was
appointed in March 1999 (ABF Annual Report , 2019).
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faced massive price fluctuations (IBIS World, 2019). It is a $73 billion industry which is shrinking at the
rate of 1.3%. The UK grocery market has been competitive recently. It has transformed from a simple
three-tier system to a fragmented one where foreign players stat putting Big 4 players out (Warner, 2019).
Retail
48% Sugar
Sugar Retail 8%
11% 56%
Agriculture
4%
Agriculture Ingredients
Ingredients 9% 10%
10%
The industry is highly competitive. The agriculture and Ingredients segment contributes the least.
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Figure 1: Porter's five forces
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The company was never indebted too much and has a strong equity base. This reduces the risk of any
solvency, the DE ratio is mere 0.08:1. It means that the company is largely self-financed and has the
unutilized capacity to take debt. In the future, the company can easily obtain a loan at least equals to its
equity base. And a few segments are industry-oriented and acceptable DE ratio, in that case, is 2:1, so,
ABF can get even more amount of loan.
41
45
36.75 34
35 28.5
151.6
127.5
103.4 96.5
67.3 74
52%
DP ratio
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2.5 Financial risk
The company classifies in its annual report that it is exposed to certain numbers of financial risk. These
are constantly reviewed by its audit committee. The three major financial risks that emerged from the use
of financial instruments are market risk, credit risk and liquidity risk (ABF Annual Report , 2019). Since
the group has a worldwide presence including cross border manufacturing, it is exposed to changing
commodity and forex prices. The treasury department manages the risk mitigation operations, some risks
are covered through derivative hedging, some through the natural hedging and a few are not covered at
all. These are those whose probability of occurrence is very low. So, the market risk from commodity and
forex markets exist but under control by the company. In the forex risk, there are transaction risk and
translation risk. The assets held in other countries like Australia are at higher risk as AUD is weakening
against USD (Fxstreet, 2019). Although the risk exists but the company has an appropriate measure to
deal with such risk.
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is the cost of equity which will be determined by the CAPM model.
g is the growth rate of dividend which is the product of retention ratio and IRR commonly denoted as g =
b*r.
The key assumption of DDM are no external funding, r and ke are constant, infinite life of the firm and
the growth rate which is a product of b and r will always be lower than the ke (Ivanovski, et al., 2015).
ABF’s average EPS is 103.38 pence, it paid average dividend of 36.71 pence. The retention ratio =
(103.38 – 36.71)/103.38 = 63%.
The average ROE is already calculated which comes out to be 11%. Hence, the growth rate will be b*r =
63%*11% = 6.93%.
The formula of CAPM is “ke = Rf + β(Rm-Rf)”.
The 2 years the risk-free rate of return in the UK is 1.50% (Bloomberg, 2019). The FTSE100 index
showed a return of 2.8% (LSE , 2019). The beta value of the company’s stock is 1.13 (Yahoo Finance,
2019). The value of ke can be calculated as follows:
ke = 1.5% + 1.13(2.80%-1.50%) = 2.97%.
Since the ke is lower than g, the key assumption is failed and the model cannot be used for the valuation.
However, if we assume a hypothetical figure of ke = 10% then the value of the share will be as follows:
= £12.41
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2015 524 482 1,006
2014 783 496 1,279
Total 6,973
Average FCF 1,395
ke (calculated in DDM) 2.97%
The capitalized value of FCF 46,956
No. of shares 792
Value of Share £59.31
The value arrived is more than the last quoted price of £59.31. The reason for such a huge difference is
that the company is highly profitable. Since the price calculated above is more than the market price of
£24.51, it is recommended that the stock be purchased.
4. Conclusion
ABF is a group diversified business across Africa, the UK including Europe and many parts of Asia,
America, and Australia. The company has high profitability. The aim of the report was to fundamentally
analyze the company and then give an opinion with regards to the decision to buy, sell or hold the shares
in the investment pool. From the analysis, it was observed that the liquidity and the solvency are storing
as well. Although the exposed risk to the company is low, the hedging techniques are effective. The main
reason for such a distinct position in the market is the leadership and the employees of the companies.
The operational risk is low due to the diversified investments into many segments. The most profitable
ones are retail and grocery. The strategies of each segment are independent of each other. The
competitiveness in the industry the ABF operates is very high, few industries have a negative growth rate.
The external environment possesses threads in the form of Brexit and economic slowdown in Europe, but
the company has been doing good so far. The future of the company looks bright. The valuation of the
shares are tried to be conducted using DDM but the main assumption is defied i.e. the growth rate comes
out to be greater than the ke. Similarly, RIM can’t be adopted. The final valuation of the company was
arrived using FCF model which came out to be more than the current market price of the company i.e. the
stock is underpriced. Based on this valuation, the decision to purchase the stock is recommended.
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5. References
ABF Annual Report , 2019. Annual Report, London: ABF.
ABF, 2019. Associated British Foods. [Online] Available at: https://www.abf.co.uk/[Accessed 20 July
2019].
advfn, 2019. Sky (SKY). [Online] Available at:
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Bloomberg, 2019. United Kingdom Rates & Bonds. [Online] Available at:
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/uk[Accessed 29 July 2019].
Bloomberg, 2019. United Kingdom Rates & Bonds. [Online] Available at:
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/uk[Accessed 20 July 2019].
Callen, J., 2016. Accounting valuation and cost of equity capital dynamics. Abacus, 52(1), pp. 5-25.
Charness, G. & Gneezy, U., 2012. Strong evidence for gender differences in risk taking.. Journal of
Economic Behavior & Organization, 83(1), pp. 50-58.
Fernández-Villaverde, J., Guerrón-Quintana, P., Rubio-Ramírez, J. & Uribe, M., 2011. Risk matters: The
real effects of volatility shocks.. American Economic Review, 101(6), pp. 2530-61.
Fxstreet, 2019. AUD/USD seen correcting lower near term – UOB. [Online] Available at:
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-seen-correcting-lower-near-term-uob-201907260534[Accessed
19 2019 July].
Hand, J., Coyne, J., Green, J. & Zhang, X., 2017. The use of residual income valuation methods by US
sell-side equity analysts.. Journal of Financial Reporting, 2(1), pp. 1-29.
IBIS World, 2019. Global Sugar Manufacturing Industry - Market Research Report. [Online] Available
at: https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-trends/global-industry-reports/manufacturing/sugar-
manufacturing.html[Accessed 29 July 2019].
IBIS World, 2019. Supermarkets - UK Market Research Report. [Online] Available at:
https://www.ibisworld.co.uk/industry-trends/market-research-reports/wholesale-retail-trade/except-of-
motor-vehicles-motorcycles/supermarkets.html[Accessed 29 July 2019].
Ivanovski, Z., Ivanovska, N. & Narasanov, Z., 2015. Application of dividend discount model valuation at
Macedonian Stock Exchange. UTMS Journal of Economics, 6(1), pp. 147-154.
Jackowicz, K., Mielcarz, P. & Wnuczak, P., 2017. Fair value, equity cash flow and project finance
valuation: ambiguities and a solution. Managerial Finance, 43(8), pp. 914-927.
LSE , 2019. FTSE100 index price. [Online] Available at:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/indices/summary/summary-
indices-chart.html?index=UKX[Accessed 19 July 2019].
Osabiya, B., 2015. The effect of employees motivation on organizational performance.. Journal of public
administration and policy research, 7(4), pp. 62-75.
Pinto, J., Robinson, T. & Stowe, J., 2019. Equity valuation: A survey of professional practice. Review of
Financial Economics, 37(2), pp. 219-233.
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Reuters, 2019. Associated British Foods PLC (ABF.L). [Online] Available at:
https://uk.reuters.com/business/stocks/ABF.L/key-developments[Accessed 29 July 2019].
Sorensen, M. & Jagannathan, R., 2015. The public market equivalent and private equity performance.
Financial Analysts Journal, 71(4), pp. 43-50.
Statista, 2019. Number of stores of Associated British Foods' retail division worldwide from 2014 and
2018, by country. [Online] Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/486148/primark-store-
numbers-by-country/[Accessed 20 July 2019].
Warner, J., 2019. Where to next for the UK supermarket industry?. [Online] Available at:
https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/shares-news/where-next-for-the-uk-supermarket-industry--
190307[Accessed 29 July 2019].
Wearden, G. & Partington, R., 2019. FTSE 100 tumbles by 12.5% in 2018 – its biggest fall in a decade.
[Online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/31/ftse-100-tumbles-by-125-in-
2018-its-biggest-fall-in-a-decade[Accessed 20 July 2019].
Yahoo Finance, 2019. Associated British Foods plc (ABF.L). [Online] Available at:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ABF.L?p=ABF.L[Accessed 29 July 2019].
Yahoo Finance, 2019. FTSE 100 (^FTSE?P=FTSE). [Online] Available at:
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3906600&interval=1mo&filter=history&frequency=1mo[Accessed 20 July 2019].
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6. Appendix
FY Equity ROE
2018 9296 11%
2017 8412 14%
2016 7122 12%
2015 6551 8%
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