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Credit Analysis
REVIEW
This chapter focuses on credit analysis. It is separated into two major sections: liquidity
analysis and solvency analysis. Liquidity refers to the availability of resources to meet
short-term cash requirements. A company's short-term liquidity risk is affected by the
timing of cash inflows and outflows along with its prospects for future performance. Our
analysis of liquidity is aimed at companies' operating activities, their ability to generate
profits from the sale of goods and services, and working capital requirements and
measures. This chapter describes several financial statement analysis tools to assess
short-term liquidity risk for a company. We begin with a discussion of the importance of
liquidity and its link to working capital. We explain and interpret useful ratios of both
working capital and a company's operating cycle for assessing liquidity. We also discuss
potential adjustments to these analysis tools and the underlying financial statement
numbers. What-if analysis of changes in a company's conditions or strategies concludes
this section.
The second part of this chapter considers solvency analysis. Solvency is an important
factor in our analysis of a company's financial statements. Solvency refers to a
company's long-run financial viability and its ability to cover long-term obligations. All
business activities of a company—financing, investing, and operating—affect a
company's solvency. One of the most important components of solvency analysis is the
composition of a company's capital structure. Capital structure refers to a company's
sources of financing and its economic attributes. This chapter describes capital
structure and explains its importance to solvency analysis. Since solvency depends on
success in operating activities, the chapter examines earnings and its ability to cover
important and necessary company expenditures. Specifically, this chapter describes
various tools of solvency analysis, including leverage measures, analytical accounting
adjustments, capital structure analysis, and earnings-coverage measures. We
demonstrate these analysis tools with data from financial statements. We also discuss
the relation between risk and return inherent in a company's capital structure, and its
implications for financial statement analysis.
Section 1: Liquidity
Liquidity and Working Capital
Current Assets and Liabilities
Working Capital Measure of Liquidity
Current Ratio Measure of Liquidity
Using the Current Ratio for Analysis
Cash-Based Ratio Measures of Liquidity
Operating Activity Analysis of Liquidity
Accounts Receivable Liquidity Measures
Inventory Turnover Measures
Liquidity of Current Liabilities
Additional Liquidity Measures
Current Assets Composition
Acid-Test (Quick) Ratio
Cash Flow Measures
Financial Flexibility
Management's Discussion and Analysis
What-If Analysis
Analyze operating cycle and turnover measures of liquidity and their interpretation.
Explain financial leverage and its implications for company performance and
analysis.
Describe capital structure risk and return and its relevance to financial statement
analysis.
2. A major limitation in using working capital (in dollars) as an analysis measure is its
failure to meaningfully relate it to other measure for interpretive purposes. That is,
working capital is much more meaningful when related to other amounts, such as
current liabilities or total assets. In addition, the importance attached to working
capital by various users provides a strong incentive for an entity (especially the ones
in a weak financial position) to stretch the definition of its components. For example,
some managers may “expand” the definition of what constitutes a current asset and
a current liability to better present their current position in the most favorable light.
Moreover, there are several opportunities for managers to stretch these definitions.
For this reason, the analyst must use judgment in evaluating management’s
classification of items included in working capital—and apply adjustments when
necessary.
4. Installment receivables derived from sales in the regular course of business are
deemed to be collectible within the operating cycle of a company. Therefore, such
installment receivables are to be included in current assets.
5. Inventories are not always reported as current assets. Specifically, inventory amounts
in excess of current requirements should be excluded from current assets. Current
requirements include quantities to be used within one-year or the normal operating
cycle, whichever period is longer. Business at times builds up its inventory in excess
of current requirement to hedge against an increase in price or in anticipation of a
strike. Such excess inventories beyond the requirements of one year should be
classified as noncurrent.
6. Prepaid expenses represent advance payments for services and supplies that would
otherwise require the current outlay of funds during the succeeding one-year or a
longer operating cycle.
9. Identical working capital does not imply identical liquidity. The absolute amount of
working capital has significance only when related to other variables such as sales,
total assets, etc. The absolute amount only has, at best, a limited value for
intercompany comparisons. A better gauge of liquidity when focusing on working
capital is to relate its amount to either or both of current assets and current liabilities
(or sales, assets, etc.).
10. The current ratio is the ratio of current assets to current liabilities. It is a static
measure of resources available at a given point in time to meet current obligations.
The reasons for its widespread use include:
It measures the degree to which current assets cover current liabilities.
It measures the margin of safety available to allow for possible shrinkage in the
value of current assets.
It measures the margin of safety available to meet the uncertainties and the random
shocks to which the flows of funds in a company are subject.
11. Cash inflows and cash outflows are not perfectly predictable. For example, in the
case of a business downturn, sales can decline more rapidly than do outlays for
purchases and expenses. The amount of cash held is in the nature of a precautionary
reserve, which is intended to take care of short-term surprises in cash inflows and
outflows.
12. There is a relation between inventories and sales. Specifically, as sales increase
(decrease), the inventory level typically increases (decreases). However, inventories
are a direct function of sales only in rare cases. Methods of inventory management
exist, and experience suggests that inventory increments vary not in proportion to
demand (sales) but rather with measure approximating the square root of demand.
14. The current ratio is a static measure. The value of the current ratio as a measure of
liquidity is limited for the following reasons:
Future liquidity depends on prospective cash flows and the current ratio alone does
not indicate what these future cash flows will be.
15. The limitations to which the current ratio is subject should be recognized and its use
should be restricted to the type of analytical task it is capable of serving. Specifically,
the current ratio can help assess the adequacy of current assets to discharge current
liabilities. This implies that any excess (called working capital) is a liquid surplus
available to meet imbalances in the flow of funds, shrinkage in value, and other
contingencies.
16. Cash-based ratios of liquidity typically refer to the ratio of cash (including cash
equivalents) to total current assets or to total current liabilities. The choice of deflator
depends on the purposes of analysis. (i) The higher the ratio of cash to total current
assets the more liquid the current asset group is. This means that this portion of the
total current assets is subject only to a minimal danger of loss in value in case of
liquidation and that there is practically no waiting period for conversion of these
assets into usable cash. (ii) The ratio of cash to total current liabilities measures how
much cash and cash equivalents are available to immediately pay current obligations.
This is a severe test that ignores the revolving nature of current liabilities. It
supplements the cash ratio to total current assets in that it measures cash availability
from a somewhat different point of view.
17. An important measure of the quality of current assets such as receivables and
inventories is their turnover. The faster the turnover—collections in case of
receivables and sales in case of inventories—the smaller the likelihood of loss on
ultimate realization of these assets.
18. The average accounts receivable turnover measures in effect the speed of their
collection during the period. The higher the turnover figure, the faster the collections
are, on average.
19. The collection period (or days' sales in accounts receivable) measures the number of
days' sales uncollected. It can be compared to a company's credit terms to evaluate
the quality of its collection activities.
20. Either one or all of the following are possible reasons for an increase in the collection
period:
A relatively poorer collection job.
Difficulty in obtaining prompt payment for various reasons from customers in spite
of diligent collection efforts.
Customers in financial difficulty, which in turn may imply a poor job by the credit
department.
Change of credit policies or sales terms in a desire to increase sales.
Excessive delinquency of one or a few substantial customers.
21. (a) If the inventory level is inadequate, the sales volume may decline to below the
level of sales otherwise attainable. A loss of potential customers can also occur. (b)
Excessive inventories, however, expose the company to expenses such as storage
costs, insurance, and taxes as well as to risks of loss of value through obsolescence
22. The LIFO method of inventory valuation in times of increasing costs can render both
the inventory turnover ratio as well as the current ratio practically meaningless.
However, there is information regarding the LIFO reserve that is reported in financial
statements. Use of the LIFO reserve enables the analyst to adjust an unrealistically
low LIFO inventory value to a more meaningful inventory amount. Still, in
intercompany comparative analysis, even if two companies use LIFO cost methods
for their inventory valuations, the ratios based on such inventory figures may not be
comparable because their respective LIFO inventory pools (bases) may have been
acquired in years of significantly different price levels.
23. The composition of current liabilities is important because not all current liabilities
represent equally urgent and forceful calls for payment. Some claims, such as for
taxes and wages, must be paid promptly regardless of current financial difficulties.
Others, such as trade bills and loans, usually do not represent equally urgent calls for
payment.
24. Changes in the current ratio over time do not automatically imply changes in liquidity
or operating results. In a prosperous year, growing liabilities for taxes can result in a
lowering of the current ratio. Moreover, in times of business expansion, working
capital requirements can increase with a resulting contraction of the current ratio—
so-called "prosperity squeeze." Conversely, during a business contraction, current
liabilities may be paid off while there is a concurrent (involuntary) accumulation of
inventories and uncollected receivables causing the ratio to rise. Finally, advances in
inventory practices (such as just-in-time) can lower the current ratio.
25. "Window dressing" refers to the adjustment of year-end account balances of current
assets and liabilities to show a more favorable current ratio than is otherwise
warranted. This can be accomplished, for example, by temporarily stepping up the
efforts for collection, by temporarily recalling advances and loans to officers, and by
reducing inventory to below the normal level and use the proceeds from these steps
to pay off current liabilities. The analyst should go beyond year-end reported
amounts and try to obtain as many interim readings of the current ratio as possible.
Even if the year-end current ratio is very strong, interim ratios may reveal that the
company is dangerously close to insolvency. More generally, our analysis must
always be aware of the possibility of window dressing of both current and noncurrent
accounts.
26. The rule of thumb regarding the current ratio is 2:1 — a value below that level
suggests serious liquidity risk. Also, the rule of thumb suggests that the higher the
current ratio be above the 2:1 level, the better. The following points, however, should
be kept in mind so as not to expose our analysis to undue risks of errors in
inferences:
A current ratio much higher than 2 to 1, while implying a superior coverage of
current liabilities, can signal a wasteful accumulation of liquid resources.
It is the quality of the current assets and the nature of the current liabilities that are
more significant in interpreting the current ratio—not simply the level itself.
The need of a company for working capital varies with industry conditions as well
as with the length of its own net trade cycle.
28. In addition to the tools of analysis of short-term liquidity that lend themselves to
quantification, there are important qualitative considerations that bear on short-term
liquidity. These can be usefully characterized as depending on the financial flexibility
of a company. Financial flexibility is the ability of a company to take steps to counter
unexpected interruptions in the flow of funds. This refers to the ability to borrow from
a variety of sources, to raise equity capital, to sell and redeploy assets, and to adjust
the level and direction of operations to meet changing circumstances. The capacity
to borrow depends on numerous factors and is subject to rapid change. It depends
on profitability, stability, relative size, industry position, asset composition and capital
structure. It will depend, moreover, on such external factors as credit market
conditions and trends. The capacity to borrow is important as a source of funds in a
time of need and is also important when a company must roll over its short-term debt.
Prearranged financing or open lines of credit are more reliable sources of funds in
time of need than is potential financing. Other factors which bear on the assessment
of the financial flexibility of a company are the ratings of its commercial paper, bonds
and preferred stock, restrictions on the sale of its assets, the degree of discretion
with its expenses as well as the ability to respond quickly to changing conditions
such as strikes, shrinking demand, and cessation of supply sources.
29. The importance of projecting the effects of changes in conditions and policies on the
cash resources of a company is to allow for proper planning and control. For
example, if management decides to ease the credit terms to its customers, knowing
the impact of the new policy on cash resources will help it make a more informed
decision. It may seek improved terms from suppliers or make arrangements to obtain
a loan.
31. Analysis of capital structure is important because the financial stability of a company
and the risk of insolvency depend on the financing sources as well as on the type of
32. Financial leverage is the result of borrowing and incurring fixed obligations for
interest and principal payments. The owners of a successful business that requires
funds may not want to dilute their ownership of the business by issuing additional
equity. Instead, they can "trade on the equity" by borrowing the funds required, using
their equity capital as a borrowing base. Financial leverage is advantageous when the
rate of return on total assets exceeds the net after-tax interest cost paid on debt. An
additional advantage provided by financial leverage is that interest expense is tax
deductible while dividend payments are not.
33. Leverage is a two-edged sword. In good times, net income benefit from leverage. In a
recession or when unexpected adverse events occur, net income can be harmed by
leverage. Therefore, the use of leverage is acceptable to the financial markets only up
to some undefined level. Ninety percent is higher than that “acceptable” level.
Specifically, at 90 percent debt to total capital, future financing flexibility would be
extremely limited, lenders would not loan money, and equity financing may cost more
than the potential returns on incremental investments. Also, a 90 percent debt level
would make net earnings extremely volatile, with a sizable increase in fixed charges.
The incremental cost of borrowing, including refunding of maturing issues, increases
with the level of borrowing. A 90 percent debt level could pose the probability of
default and receivership in the event that something goes wrong. The financial risk of
such a company would be much too high for either stockholders or bondholders.
34. In an analysis of deferred income taxes, the analyst must recognize that under normal
circumstances the deferred tax liabilities will “reverse” (become payable) only when a
firm shrinks in size. Shrinkage in firm size is usually accompanied with losses instead
of with taxable income. In such circumstances, the “drawing down” of the deferred
tax account is more likely to involve credits to tax loss carryforwards or carrybacks,
rather than to the cash account. To the extent that a future reversal is only a remote
possibility, the deferred credit should be viewed as a source of long-term funding and
be classifiable as part of equity. On the other hand, if the possibility of a drawing
down of the deferred tax account in the foreseeable future is high, then the account,
or a portion of it, is more in the nature of a long-term liability.
35. The accounting requirements for the capitalization of leases are not rigorous and
definite enough to insure that all leases that represent, in effect, installment
purchases of assets are capitalized. Consequently, the analyst must evaluate leases
that have not been capitalized with a view to including them among debt obligations.
Leases which cover most (say 75-80 percent) of the useful life of an asset can
37. Pension accounting recognizes that if the fair value of pension assets falls short of
the accumulated pension benefit obligation, a liability for pensions exists. However,
this liability normally does not take into consideration the projected benefit obligation
that recognizes an estimate for future pay increases. When pension plans base their
benefits on future pay formulas, the analysts, who judge such understatement as
serious and who can estimate it, may want to adjust the pension liability for analysis
purposes.
38. The preferred method of presenting the financial statements of a parent and its
subsidiary is in consolidated format. This is also the preferred method from an
analysis point of view. However, separate financial statements of the consolidated
entities are necessary in some cases, such as when the utilization of assets of a
subsidiary (such as an insurance company or a bank) is not subject to the full
discretion of the parent. Information on unconsolidated subsidiaries is also important
when bondholders of such subsidiaries must look only to a subsidiary’s assets as
security. Moreover, bondholders of the parent company (particularly holding
companies) may derive a significant portion of their fixed charge coverage from the
dividends of the unconsolidated subsidiaries. Yet, in the event of the subsidiary's
bankruptcy, the parent bondholders may be in a junior position to the bondholders of
the subsidiary.
39. a. Generally, the minority interest is shown among liabilities in consolidated financial
statements. However, the minority interest differs from debt in that it has neither
mandatory dividend payment requirements nor principal repayment requirements.
Therefore, for the purpose of capital structure analysis, it may be classified as
equity rather than as a liability.
b. The purpose of appropriating retained earnings is to "set aside" a certain portion
of retained earnings to prevent them from serving as a basis for the declaration of
dividends. There exists no claim by an outsider to such an appropriation until the
contingency materializes. Therefore, unless the reason for the amount reserved is
certain to occur, such appropriations should be considered a part of equity
capital.
c. A guarantee for product performance is the result of a definite contract with the
buyer that commits the entity to correct product defects. Therefore, it is a
potential liability and should be classified as such.
d. Convertible debt is generally classified among liabilities. However, if the terms of
conversion and the market price of the common stock are such that it is most
likely to be converted into common stock, it should be considered as equity for
the purpose of capital structure analysis.
e. Most preferred stock entails no absolute obligation for payment of dividends or
repayment of principal—that is, it possesses characteristics of equity. However,
preferred stock with a fixed maturity or subject to sinking fund requirements
should, from an analysis point of view, be considered as debt.
b. The following are examples of the need for possible adjustments. Different or
additional adjustments may be needed depending on circumstances: (1)
Inventories carried at LIFO are generally understated in times of rising prices. The
amount by which inventories computed under FIFO (which are closer to
replacement cost) exceed inventories computed under LIFO is disclosed as the
LIFO reserve. These disclosures should enable the analyst to adjust inventory
amounts and the corresponding equity amounts to more realistic current costs.
(2) For fiscal years beginning before 12/16/93, marketable securities were
generally stated at cost, which may be below market value. Using parenthetical or
footnote information, the analyst can make an analytical adjustment increasing
this asset to market value and increasing owner's equity by an equal amount. (3)
Intangible assets and deferred items of dubious value, which are included on the
asset side of the balance sheet, have an effect on the computation of the total
equity of a company. To the extent that the analyst cannot evaluate or form an
opinion on the present value or future utility of such assets, they may be excluded
from consideration, thereby reducing the amount of equity by the amounts at
which such assets are carried. However, the arbitrary exclusion of all intangible
assets from the capital base is an unjustified exercise in over-conservatism.
41. Long-term creditors are interested in the future operations and cash flows of a debtor
(in addition to the short-term financial condition of the debtor). For example, a
creditor of a three-year loan would want to make an analysis of solvency assuming
the worst set of economic and operating conditions. For such purposes, an analysis
of short-term liquidity is usually not adequate. However, such a dynamic analysis for
the long term is subject to substantial uncertainties and requires assumptions for a
much longer time horizon. The inevitable lack of detail and the uncertainties inherent
in long-term projections severely limit their reliability. This does not mean that
long-term projections are not useful. What it does mean is that the analyst must be
aware of the serious limitations to which they are subject.
42. Common-size analysis focuses on the composition of the funds that finance a
company. As such, it reflects on the financial risk inherent in the capital structure.
Specifically, it shows the relative magnitudes of the financing sources of the company
and allows the analyst to compare them with similar data of other companies. Instead,
capital structure ratios reflect on the financial risk of a company by relating various
components of the capital structure to each other or to total financing. An advantage
of ratio analysis is that it can be used as a screening device and, moreover, can
reflect on relations across more than one financial statement.
43. The difference between the book value of equity capital and its market value is
usually due to a number of factors. One of these is the effect of price-level changes.
These, in turn, are caused by at least two factors: change in the purchasing power of
money and change in price due to economic factors such as the law of supply and
demand. Therefore, with fluctuating prices, it is unlikely that historical cost will
44. Since liabilities and equity reveal the financing sources of a company, and the asset
side reveals the investment of these funds, we can generally establish direct relations
between asset groups and selected items of capital structure. This does not, of
course, imply that resources provided by certain liabilities or equity should be directly
associated with the acquisition of certain assets. Still, it is valid to assume that the
types of assets a company employs should determine to some extent the sources of
resources used to finance them. Therefore, to help assess the risk exposure of a
given capital structure, the analysis of asset distribution is one important dimension.
As an example, if a company acquired long-term assets by means of short-term
borrowings, the analyst would conclude that this particular method of financing
involves a considerable degree of risk (and cost).
45. The earnings to fixed charges ratio measures directly the relation between
debt-related and other fixed charges and the earnings available to meet these
charges. It is an evaluation of the ability of a company to meet its fixed charges out of
current earnings. Earnings coverage ratios are superior to other tools, such as debt-
to-equity ratios, which do not focus on the availability of funds. This is because
earnings coverage ratios directly measure the availability of funds for payment of
fixed charges. Fixed charges are mainly a direct result of the incurrence of debt. An
inability to pay their associated principal and interest payments represents the most
serious risk consequence of debt.
46. Identifying the items to include in "fixed charges" depends on the purpose of the
analysis. Fixed charges can be defined narrowly to include only interest and interest
equivalents or broadly to include all outlays required under contractual obligations—
specifically:
(a) Interest and interest equivalents:
i. Interest on long-term debt (including amortization of any discounts and
premiums).
ii. Interest element included in long-term lease rentals.
iii. Capitalized interest.
(b) Other outlays under contractual obligations:
i. Interest on income bonds (assuming profitable operations—implicit
assumption in such borrowings).
ii. Required deposits to sinking funds and principal payments under serial bond
obligations.
iii. Principal repayments included in lease obligations.
iv. Purchase commitments under noncancelable contracts to the extent that
requirements exceed normal usage.
v. Preferred stock dividend requirements of majority-owned subsidiaries.
vi. Interest on recorded pension liabilities.
For each of the above categories, the corresponding income to be included in the
ratio computation should be adjusted accordingly. Regarding fixed charges, those
items not tax deductible must be tax adjusted. This is done by increasing them by an
amount equal to the income tax that would be required to obtain an after -tax income
sufficient to cover the fixed charges. The tax rate to be used should be based on the
relation of the taxes on income from continuing operations to the amount of pre-tax
income from continuing operations—the company's effective tax rate.
47. A company normally signs a long-term purchase contract to either insure that its
supply of essential raw material is not interrupted or to get a favorable purchase
discount, or both. In times of favorable economic conditions, the analyst need not
worry about most such commitments (indeed, they are a positive factor). The only
exception is when such commitments reflect amounts in excess of requirements
given expected sales. Accordingly, if the analyst concludes that the purchase
commitments represent the minimum required supplies, s/he can justifiably exclude
the commitments from fixed charges. If the analyst includes the commitments in fixed
charges, income should be adjusted to reflect the tax-deductible nature of the
purchase that will eventually be recorded as cost of goods sold. Proceeds from the
forced sale of excess supplies can also be deducted on an estimated basis.
48. Net income includes items of revenue that do not generate immediate cash. It also
includes expenses that do not require the immediate use of cash. For a measure of
cash available to meet fixed charges, the more relevant figure is "cash provided by
operations" reported in the statement of cash flows. Net income can sometimes be
used as a proxy of this more appropriate measure of cash availability.
49. Since Company B is under the control of Company A, the latter can siphon off funds
from it to the detriment of B's creditors. Moreover, the customer-supplier relationship
with Company A means that Company A has considerable discretion in the allocation
of revenues, costs, and expenses among the two entities in such a way as to
determine which company will show what portion of the total available income. This
again can work to the detriment of Company B's creditors. As a lender to Company B,
one would want to write into the lending agreement conditions that would prevent
parent Company A from exercising its controlling powers to the detriment of the
lender.
50. Debt can never be expected to carry the risks and returns of ownership because of
the fixed nature of its rewards. Also, it cannot serve as the permanent risk capital of a
company because it must be repaid with interest. Moreover, debt is incurred on the
foundation of an equity base. Indeed, equity financing shields or at least reduces the
risks of debt financing. Equity financing also absorbs the losses to which a company
is exposed. Consequently, the assertion is basically accurate.
51. The advantages of convertible debt are that the company is able to potentially
enlarge its equity base (and/or at a potentially lower cost) than it might otherwise be
able to with pure equity financing. Also, it might be able to sell equity shares at a
price in excess of the current market price and to obtain, in the interim, a lower
52. (a) Long-term indentures span such an extended period of time that they are subject
to many uncertainties and imponderables. Consequently, long-term creditors
often insist on the maintenance of certain ratios at specified levels and/or controls
over specific managerial actions and policies (such as dividends and capital
expenditures). However, no restrictive covenant or other contractual arrangement
can prevent operating losses, which present the most serious risk to long-term
creditors.
53. The major reason why debt securities are rated while equity securities are not rest
in the fact that there is a far greater uniformity of approach and homogeneity of
analytical measures used in the evaluation of credit worthiness than there is in the
evaluation of equity securities. This increased agreement on what is being
measured in credit risk analysis has resulted in widespread acceptance of and
reliance on published credit ratings in many sectors of the analyst community.
54. In rating an industrial bond issue, rating agencies focus on the issuing company's
asset protection, financial resources, earning power, management, and the specific
provisions of the debt security. Asset protection is concerned with measuring the
degree to which a company's asset protection, financial resources, earning power,
management, and the specific provisions of the debt security. Financial resources
encompass, in particular, such liquid resources as cash and other working capital
items. Future earning power is a factor of great importance in the rating of debt
securities because the level and the quality of future earnings determine importantly
a company's ability to meet its obligations. Earnings power is generally a more
reliable source of security than is asset protection. Management abilities, philosophy,
depth, and experience always loom importantly in any final rating judgment. Through
interviews, field trips and other analyses the raters probe into management's goals,
the planning process as well as strategies in such areas as research and
development, promotion, new product planning and acquisitions. The specific
provisions of the debt security are usually spelled out in the bond indenture.
55. The analyst who can effectively execute financial statement analysis can also
improve on the published bond ratings. Indeed, effective financial statement analysis
is possibly even more valuable in the valuation of debt securities than in the case of
equity securities. Bond ratings cover a wide range of characteristics and they present
opportunities for those who can better identify key differences within a rating
classification. Moreover, rating changes generally lag the market. This lag presents
additional opportunities to an analyst who with superior skill and alertness can
identify important changes before they become generally recognized.
A* B* C* D*
1. NE NE I/I=D I/I=D
2. D/NE=D D/NE=D D/D=I D/D=I
3. I/NE=I I/NE=I I/I=D I/I=D
4. NE/I=D NE/I=D I/I=D I/I=D
5. NE NE D/NE=D NE
6. NE NE NE I/NE=I
7. NE NE I/I=D I/I=D
8. NE NE D/D=I D/D=I
9. D/I=D D/I=D NE NE
10. I/NE=I NE NE NE
* Ratio codes and definitions:
A. Total debt / Total equity
B. Long-term debt / Total equity
C. [Pre-tax earnings + Fixed charges (FC)] / FC
D. [Pretax CFO + FC] / FC
RAM Corporation
Cash Forecast before Policy Changes
For Year Ended December 31, Year 2
Cash, January 1, Year 2…………………… $ 80,000
Cash Collections:
Accounts receivable, Jan. 1………… $150,000
Sales (800,000 x 110%)………………. 880,000
Less: Accounts recble., Dec. 31 [a].. (165,000) 865,000
Total cash available ……………………….. 945,000
Cash Disbursements:
Accounts payable, Jan. 1……………. $130,000
Purchases [b]………………………….. 657,000
Less: Accounts pay., Dec. 31 [c]…... (244,000) 543,000
Increase in notes payable…………... (15,000)
Accrued taxes…………………………. 20,000
Cash expenses [d]……………………. 258,500
806,500
Net cash flow………………………………... $138,500
Cash balance desired……………………… 50,000
Cash excess…………………………………. $ 88,500
Notes:
[a] 360 days / ($800,000/$150,000) = 67.5 days
Applied to Year 2 sales: $880,000 x (67.5/360) = $165,000
[b]
Year 2 Cost of sales ($520,000 x 110%)……………… $572,000
Ending inventory (given)…………………………… 150,000
Goods available for sale…………………………… 722,000
Beginning inventory………………………………… 65,000
Purchases…………………………………………….. $657,000
[c] Purchases x (Year 1 Accounts payable / Year 1 Purchases)
= $657,000 x ($130,000 / $350,000) = $244,000
Notes:
[1]
Beginning inventory……………………. $ 32,000
+ Purchases (plug)……………………… 331,750
Goods available for sale.………………. 363,750
- Ending inventory………………………. 75,000
Cost of sales ($412,500 x .70)………… $288,750
[2]
Gross profit (30% of sales)……………… $123,750
Depreciation ($25,000 - $21,500)……….. 3,500
Net income (excludes other expenses).. 120,250
Other expenses (plug)………………….… 110,250
Net income (given)………………………... $ 10,000
a. Relevant information that probably can be derived from the notes to the
financial statements includes:
1. Details of Gant's bank credit, including total line of credit, portion currently
unused, interest rates, and terms of credit.
2. Impacts of any consolidated subsidiaries on the liquidity of the
consolidated balance sheet of Gant. Subsidiaries usually maintain separate
credit facilities; therefore, solvency of a subsidiary may not necessarily be
accessible to the parent company's creditors.
3. Gant's pension funding obligations. Is there an unfunded liability? If so,
what are the future financial obligations?
Additional relevant information that you should attempt to obtain from Gant's
management includes:
4. Prior years’ (and/or quarterly) statements of cash receipts and payments.
5. Forecasts statement (one or more years) of due dates and amounts for its
receivables and payables.
6. Budget of planned capital expenditures.
7. Budget of planned long-term financing.
a.
Ratio: Year 5 Year
6
1. Current ratio
Year 5: $61,000/$40,000………………. 1.5
Year 6: $84,000/$54,000………………. 1.6
2. Days' sales in receivables
5: ($20,000 / ($155,000/360)…………... 46
6: ($25,000 / ($186,000/360)…………... 48
3. Inventory turnover
5: $99,000/[($32,000+$38,000)/2]…….. 2.83
6: $120,000/[($38,000+$56,000)/2]…… 2.55
4. Days' sales in inventory
5: $38,000/($99,000/360)………………. 138
6: $56,000/($120,000/360)…………….. 168
5. Days' purchases in accounts payable
5: $23,000/($105,000* /360)…………… 79
6: $29,000/($138,000* /360)…………… 76
* Purchases Year 5 Year 6
Cost of sales……………………... $ 99,000 $120,000
+ Ending inventory……………… 38,000 56,000
Goods available for sale……….. 137,000 176,000
- Beginning inventory…………... 32,000 38,000
Purchases………………………… $105,000 $138,000
b. Most of the liquidity measures of ZETA do not reveal any significant changes from
Year 5 to Year 6. However, there is some deterioration in the inventory turnover.
This deterioration is even more evident in the days' sales in inventory measures.
Moreover, the liquidity index also suggests that the liquidity position of ZETA has
deteriorated from Year 5 to Year 6. Also notice that because of a lower level of
operating cash flows, the cash flow ratio shows a significant decline. Still, due to
the short time span of this analysis, one would want to examine another year or
two (say, Years 3 and 4) to see if these changes reflect a longer-term trend in
liquidity.
Supporting calculations:
1. Total debt and Equity [92] – Short-term debt [78] - Equity**
Equity**
**Equity = [91 + 82 + 83 + 84]
3. Total liabilities
Total equity capital
11: 10: 9:
2,110.3 2,306.8 1,988.8
905.8 1,019.3 1,137.1
5. Pre-tax income from cont. oper. [7] +Int exp [156] + Int portion of operating rentals
[154]
Interest incurred [156] + Interest portion of operating rentals [154]
6. Operating cash flows [31] + Income tax expense* [158] + Fixed charges (5 above)
Fixed charges (5 above)
*Except deferred—already added back in computing CFO.
11: 10: 9:
532.4 447.1
381.6
1,183.4 1,168.3 1,164.7
11: 10: 9:
905.8 1,019.3 1,137.1
1,232.7 1,154.1 959.6
b. The financial leverage for Year 11 indicates that use of leverage has been
increasingly more advantageous for the common stockholder. The liability-to-
equity ratios indicate an unfavorable increase of more than 12% in Years 11
and 10. The cash flow coverage ratio of fixed charges has improved from a
low level in Year 10. The earnings coverage of fixed charges has exhibited
steady improvement, as has the ratio of cash from operations to long-term
debt.
Debt Equity
Income before interest and taxes—pre-expansion......... $20,000,000 $20,000,000
Additional income from expansion................................... 4,000,000 4,000,000
Income before interest and taxes—post-expansion....... 24,000,000 24,000,000
Interest expense (6%)($20,000,000)+$1,000,000............. (2,200,000 ) (1,000,000 )
Income before taxes.......................................................... 21,800,000 23,000,000
Income taxes (40%)........................................................... (8,720,000) (9,200,000)
Net income $13,080,000 $13,800,000
Common shares outstanding........................................... 2,000,000 2,400,000
Earnings per share............................................................ $6.54 $5.75
Long-term debt
Long-term debt + Minority interest + Shareholders' equity
c. 1. Two points: (i) For fiscal years beginning before 12/16/93, marketable
securities were valued at the lower of cost or market under SFAS 12 (for
marketable equity securities) and ARB 43 (for marketable debt securities).
During this period the market value of securities were sometimes substantially
higher than shown on the balance sheet, requiring analytical adjustment.
Under current practice, all marketable securities (except held-to-maturity debt
securities) are valued at market. Hence, only held-to-maturity debt securities
are potentially subject to market adjustment. (ii) An analyst must realize that
the longer the elapsed time since the balance sheet date the greater the
likelihood that market values for marketable securities have changed. Hence,
for comparative analysis spanning several years, adjustments to market may
be necessary for investment securities.
2. Deferred income taxes are created when a company uses different accounting
methods for income tax and financial reporting such that so-called timing
differences in income occur. One school of thought argues that deferred taxes
should be recognized as a liability. The presumption is that timing differences
will reverse in the future and the taxes will become payable or that changes in
the tax law could accelerate payment of such taxes. Opponents argue that
deferred taxes should be included in shareholders' equity. The presumption
here is that timing differences are unlikely to reverse and therefore the balance
in deferred taxes will continue to grow and not become payable. This means
that the long-term debt ratio of a company would be adversely affected if
deferred taxes are considered long-term debt (first viewpoint); however, this
ratio would be favorably impacted if such taxes are considered as part of
shareholders' equity (second viewpoint).
a. Ratio Computations:
4. Year 5:
$16,000 a $4,000 b $2,000 c $16 d $1,000 e $1,000 f *
3.42
$5,000 g $2,000 c $16 d
* Loss per income statement (additional 300 added back in SCF represents dividends
received).
Year 6:
b. Both the current ratio and acid test ratio increased slightly in Year 11,
following significant decreases in Year 10. Both inventory and accounts
receivable turnovers have been stable over these years. The conversion
period has been steady to slightly declining. Cash from operations to current
liabilities has improved measurably, while the liquidity index improved
somewhat from Year 9 to Year 10 and significantly from Year 10 to Year 11.
[1] Sales for Year 2 = Sales for Year 1 x 115% = $960,000 x 1.15 = $1,104,000
[2] Ending A.R. = Average daily sales x Collection period
= $1,104,000 x 90/360 = $276,000
[3] Purchases (Year 2) = COGS + Ending inventory - Beginning inventory
COGS (Year 2) = COGS (Year 1) x 110% = $550,000 x 1.1 = $605,000
Average Inventory = COGS / Average inventory turnover
= $605,000 / 5.5 = 110,000
Ending inventory = (Average inventory x 2) - (Beginning Inventory)
= $110,000 x 2 - $112,500 = $107,500
Purchases (Year 2) = $605,000 + $107,500 - $112,500 = $600,000
b. From the analysis in part a, it is predicted that FAX will need to borrow $55,920
in Year 2.
b. From the analysis in part a, it is predicted that FAX will need to borrow $35,898
in Year 2.
a.
Year 5 Year 4
1. Working capital:
Current assets 342,000 198,000
Current liabilities 177,800 64,800
Working capital 164,200 133,200
2. Current ratio 1.92 3.06
3. Acid-test ratio:
[($12,000 + $183,000) / $177,800] 1.10
[($15,000 + $80,000) / $64,800] 1.46
4. Accounts receivable turnover:
$1,684,000 / [($183,000 + $80,000) / 2] 12.81
$1,250,000 / [($80,000 + $60,000) / 2] 17.86
5. Collection period of receivables:
360 / 12.81 28.10
360 / 17.86 20.16
6. Inventory turnover ratio:
($927,000 / [($142,000 + $97,000) / 2] 7.76
($810,000 / [($97,000 + $52,000) / 2] 10.88
7. Days to sell inventory:
360 / 7.76 46.39
360 / 10.88 33.09
8. Debt-to-equity ratio:
(120 + 30 + 147.8) / (110 + 94.2) 1.46
(73 + 14.4 + 50.4) / (110 + 60.2) 0.81
9. Times interest earned:
$87,000 / $12,000 7.25
$43,300 / $7,300 5.93
b.
Index- number trend series Year 5 Year 4 Year 3
Sales………………………………… 160.4 119.0 100.0
Cost of goods 181.1 158.2 100.0
sold………………..
Gross 140.7 81.8 100.0
profit…………………………
Marketing and administrative…. 143.2 84.8 100.0
Net 112.5 54.0 100.0
income…………………………...
a. The following eight considerations are relevant for discussions with management
and beginning the task of credit analysis:
1. Economic cyclicality. How closely do the tobacco, food, and beverage
industries track GNP? Is tobacco consumption more tied to sociopolitical and
regulatory factors than to economic ones? Cyclicality of an industry is the
starting point an analyst should consider in reviewing an industry. A
company's earnings growth should be compared against the growth trend of
its industry, with significant deviations carefully analyzed. Industries may be
somewhat dependent on general economic growth, demographic changes,
and interest rates. In general, however, industry earnings are not perfectly
correlated with any one economic statistic. Not only are industries sensitive to
many economic variables, but often segments within a company or industry
move with different lags in relation to the overall economy.
2. Growth prospects. Are the businesses that Philip Morris is operating within
growing at a steady pace, or is growth slipping? Will European consumption of
cigarettes begin to slow as they have in the U.S. due to more no smoking
regulations? Related to the issue of growth, is there consolidation going on in
tobacco, food or beverages? Alternate growth scenarios have different
implications for a company. With high-growth industries, the need for
additional capacity and related financing is an issue. With low-growth
industries, movements toward diversification and/or consolidation strategies
are a possibility. As a general proposition, companies in high-growth
industries have greater potential for credit improvement than companies
operating in lower-growth industries.
3. Research & development. R&D activities are not large in the tobacco, food or
beverage industries, although expenditures are directed at new product
development. In general, it is safe to characterize these businesses as having
a stable product line that will not vary much over time. For firms relying on
such expenditures to maintain or improve market position, it is important to
assess whether the company in question has the financial resources to
maintain a leadership position or at least expend a sufficient amount of money
to keep technologically current.
4. Competition. How competitive are these industries? Are there players who are
out to gain market share at the expense of profits? Is the industry trending
toward oligopoly, which would make small companies in the industry
vulnerable to the economies of scale the larger companies bring to bear?
Economic theory shows us how competition within an industry relates to
market structure and has implications for pricing flexibility. An unregulated
monopoly is in position to price its goods at a level that will maximize profits.
Most industries, however, encounter free market forces and cannot price their
goods/services without consideration of supply and demand as well as the
price charged for substitute goods/services. Oligopolies often have a pricing
leader. Analysts must be concerned about small companies in an industry that
is trending toward oligopoly. In such an environment, the small company's
production costs may exceed those of the industry leaders. If a small firm is
forced to follow the pricing of the industry leaders, the firm may be driven out
of business.
5. Sources of supply. Are these businesses vulnerable to the cost of production
inputs? Or is the market position of Philip Morris such that it can easily pass
on higher raw material costs? Industry market structure often has a direct
b. 1a. Ratios for Philip Morris for Year 9 before the acquisition of Kraft are:
1b.Ratios for Philip Morris for Year 9 pro forma for the acquisition of Kraft are:
2. Relating these ratios to the median ratios for the various bond rating
categories places Philip Morris in the position shown below:
Before Kraft Ratio Implied
Rating
Pretax interest coverage.................................. 10.64 AA
LT debt as % of cap.......................................... 28.11% A
CF as % of total debt........................................ 71.14% A+/AA-
After Kraft Ratio Implied Rating
Pretax interest coverage.................................. 3.76 BBB
LT debt as % of cap.......................................... 61.99% B
CF as % of total debt........................................ 23.14% BB
c. One might conclude from the qualitative considerations in part b that the shift
toward petrochemicals makes ABEX more vulnerable to the vagaries of the
economic cycle. If so, this will lead to a more volatile earnings stream going
forward. To this extent, there is some pressure for a rating downgrade.
Looking at the ratio analysis in part a, one might conclude that there is
relatively little deterioration in credit quality. The modest deterioration in asset
protection seems to be offset by higher cash flow margins, which allows the
company to support the higher debt burden. However, the greater reliance on
short-term debt to finance the increased working capital requirements is
somewhat troublesome.
a. (4)
Current assets $4,683 $5,491
Current liabilities 5,354 6,215
Working capital $(671) $(724)
a. (5)
Current ratio 0.87 0.88
a. (8)
Cash + Marketable securities $ 448 $ 246
Current liabilities $5,354 $6,215
Cash to current liabilities 8.37% 3.96%
a. (9)
Net credit sales* $13,234 $13,994
Average accounts receivable $2,495 $2,529
Accounts receivable turnover 5.30 5.53
Collection period (360/Accounts
Receivable turnover) 67.92 65.10
*Used net sales
a. (10)
Cost of goods sold
Average inventory
Inventory turnover $8,670 $8,375
Days to sell inventory (360/ $1,428 $1,618
Inventory turnover) 6.07 5.18
b. Note 8 refers to an available $2.45 billion line of credit that the Company can
access for general corporate purposes. In addition, note 8 refers to a debt
security shelf registration that would allow the Company to issue public debt
if necessary up to $1.35 billion. These two available resources indicate a
good deal of financial flexibility for Kodak.
d. (7) Relevant qualitative considerations would come from the MD&A and from
knowledge of the industry as a whole.
e. Altman’s Z-Score:
2001 2000
X1 = Working capital / Total assets* -0.050 -0.051
*Data from (a) through (d) above
X2 = Retained earnings / Total assets* 0.556 0.554
*Data from (a) through (d) above
X3 = Earnings before int. and taxes* / Total assets 0.024 0.163
*Data from annual report
X4 = Shareholders' equity / Total liabilities 0.276 0.318
*Data from (a) through (d) above
X5 = Sales / Total assets 0.990 0.985
*Data from annual report
Z-scores** 1.614 2.055
** Z = .717X1 + .847X2 + 3.107X3 + .420X4 + .998X5