Quiz 3 STA 3032, Spring 2017

Section: Name:

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Problem 1. A computer sends a packet of information along a channel and waits for a
return signal acknowledging that the packet has been received. If no acknowledgment
is received within a certain time, the packet is re-sent. Let X represent the number of
times the packet is sent. Assume that the probability mass function of X is given by
(
cx if x = 1, 2, 3, or 4
p(x) =
0 otherwise

(a) Find the value of the constant c so that p(x) is a probability mass function.
Solution:
X4
1= p(x) = c(1) + c(2) + c(3) + c(4) = c(10)
x=1

Which implies that c = 1/10.

(b) Find P (X = 2).

Solution: P (X = 2) = p(2) = 2/10

(c) Find the mean number of times the packet is sent.

Solution:
4
X 1 4
E(X) = x × p(x) = (1) + . . . + (4) = 3
10 10
x=1

(d) Find the variance of the number of times the packet was sent.
Solution:
1 4 100
E(X 2 ) = (12 ) + . . . + (42 ) = = 10
10 10 10
So
V (X) = E(X 2 ) − [E(X)]2 = 10 − 32 = 1
Problem 2. (2 points) Resistors labeled 100 Ω have true resistances that are between
100 Ω and 140 Ω. Let X be the resistance of a randomly chosen resistor. The probability
density function of X is given by
(
x
if 100 < x < 120
f (x) = 2200
0 otherwise

(a) Find the cumulative distribution function of the resistances.

Solution:
Z x  2 x
t 1 t
FX (x) = dt =
100 2200 2200 2 t=100
1
x2 − 1002


=
4400
1
x2 − 10, 000


=
4400

Thus, the c.d.f. is given by


0,
 if x < 100
1
FX (x) = 4400 (x2 − 10, 000) if 100 ≤ x ≤ 120

1, if x > 120


Note: Points were taken off if the bounds were not specified. An important part
about c.d.f.’s is that they are defined for every x.

(b) What proportion of resistors have resistances less than 110?

Solution:
1
P (X ≤ 110) = FX (110) = (1102 − 10, 000) = 2100/4400 ≈ .4772
4400
Problem 3. (1 point) A clinical test is developed to diagnose a specific illness. Let
D be the event that a patient has the disease, and let + be the event that the patient
tested positive for the disease. We are given the following information:

(a) The test is 79 percent reliable. That is, known diseased people only have a 79
percent chance of testing positive for the disease.

(b) On average, this illness affects 1 percent of the population in the same age group
as the patient.

(c) The test has a false positive rate of 10 percent. (The false positive rate is the
proportion of test results coming up positive when individuals are known to be
disease-free). In symbols,
P (+|Dc ) = 0.10

A patient tests positive for the disease. What is the probability that the patient actu-
ally has the disease?
Hint: Use Bayes’ Rule

Solution: Applying Bayes’ Rule,

P (+|D)P (D)
P (D|+) =
P (+|D)P (D) + P (+|Dc )P (Dc )

(0.79)(0.01)
=
(0.79)(0.01) + (0.1)(0.99)

= 0.0739