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Dare, able and invited to cycle!

The pyramid of train customer needs applied to cycling policy

Mark van Hagen, NS Netherlands Railways

Bas Govers, Goudappel Coffeng

Contribution to the European Transport Conference, 9-11 October, Dublin

Summary

To facilitate more targeted investments in measures that align with the experiences of
cyclists, we transposed the needs of train passengers – as depicted in NS Netherlands
Railways’ pyramid of customer needs – to environments in which people cycle. The
resulting cycling pyramid follows the same structure as the customer needs pyramid and
features three main levels: dare, able and invited to cycle. Before daring to cycle,
cyclists must first feel safe. Once they feel safe, the infrastructure must be designed in a
way that allows them to be able to cycle quickly and conveniently. When the dare and
able to cycle elements are established, the trick then is to entice these new cyclists into
cycling more frequently and over longer distances. The environments in which people
cycle must be so attractive that they want to cycle there. Research and monitoring of the
cycling experience revealed that cyclists deem speed to be less relevant than we
previously assumed; instead, cyclists find the attractiveness of cycling routes much more
important. The Netherlands is a cycling country, and most Dutch people dare and are
able to cycle; in short, the cycling pyramid’s base is already well established in the
Netherlands. Now it is time to devote greater attention to the top of the pyramid, where
cycling is made more attractive, so that not only will more people want to cycle, but they
will also cycle more often and over longer distances.

Introduction

Bicycles, as key transport modes in our cities, are enjoying a resurgence worldwide. As a
compact, flexible, healthy, inexpensive and pleasurable transport mode, bicycles are key
contributors to urban objectives like sustainable mobility, social justice, accessibility, and
quality of public spaces. The 'why' question is therefore clear: encouraging bicycle use
must be a key factor in urban mobility strategies. But how about the ‘what’ question:
‘what must we do to achieve this’? Providing safe infrastructure is of course crucial, but
is it enough? In this report we opted for a more 'customer-focused’ approach to bicycles,
as derived from and inspired by NS Netherlands Railways’ customer-focused approach,
from which relevant lessons can be drawn for cycling policy. There are new horizons to
explore, even in Dutch cities, where bicycles already claim a large share of the urban
modal split!
NS Netherlands Railways’ pyramid model

NS Netherlands Railways (hereafter called NS) developed a conceptual model for the
hierarchy of quality needs, as derived from customer research. The model is known as
the ‘pyramid of customer needs’ (Van Hagen, Peek & Kieft, 2000, Van Hagen, 2011), and
its strength lies in the fact that it serves as a lingua franca for various organisations both
within and outside of NS. The pyramid’s base is safety and reliability, the preconditions
for a pleasant trip. The next levels are speed and ease, the core values of a trip, which,
if insufficiently met, become ‘dissatisfiers’. The pyramid’s top levels are comfort and
experience, the ‘satisfiers’ and key qualities when people stay somewhere. Accordingly,
there are three quality levels: first is the foundation that gives customers the feeling
they are in control; second the ‘dissatisfiers’ that make people feel valued as train
customers; and third the ‘satisfiers’ that give people a sense of freedom (Van Hagen &
Van der Made, 2017). This universally applicable model is advantageous in that allows
various organisations to speak the same customer language and better understand what
customers want in different situations. Organisations – each with their own objectives –
that collaborate to achieve improved customer services now become compelled to look
at how their services perform through the eyes of those who use their services, thereby
allowing for quicker, better and firmer decisions to be made. NS uses this model to
improve the quality of its customer services, while also using measurement systems
linked to the customer needs pyramid. The pyramid of customer needs is based on
numerous qualitative and quantitative studies of the needs and (unconscious) desires of
NS passengers. These studies found that most passengers routinely use the same words
to express their desires, and invariably to indicate their order of importance (Van Hagen,
Peek & Kieft, 2000; Van Hagen, 2011; Van Hagen & Foljanti, 2017; De Bruyn & De Vries,
2009, Konijnendijk and Van Beek, 2008).

Figure 1 Quality needs of passengers depicted in a pyramid of customer needs


‘Perceived’ customer needs as foundation for mobility policy

The pyramid of customer needs is also used outside the rail sector (CROW, 2014; 2019,
Goudappel Coffeng, 2015). Mobility policy aims to entice ‘travellers’ into making certain
choices within the multimodal mobility system. Accordingly, the quality of services
influences how people actually behave. Travelers, and hence also car drivers or cyclists,
make choices based on the qualities they perceive, and this perceived quality is the
underlying reality of their choices. This means that for travellers, reality is not the
objective reality of performance, as monitored by KPIs, but rather how the traveller
perceives and interprets the performance. For example: it does not matter whether it is
objectively safe to cycle at night; what matters is whether the cyclists feel safe cycling at
night, as this is what ultimately determines whether they choose to cycle or not.

Three levels of cycling: the basic principles

The pyramid has a multi-level system, whereby the qualities at the bottom of the
pyramid are deemed the most important for travellers and must be fulfilled first. Once
they are fulfilled, travellers also want the needs of the higher positioned qualities to be
addressed (Van Hagen & Foljanty, 2017). The five quality levels can also be compressed
into the pyramid of customer needs’ three main levels, each with its own colour (safe
and reliable = red; fast and easy = yellow; and comfortable and attractive = green), and
we can subsequently link this to a prioritisation of investment decisions, ranging from
red to green. We term these overarching themes: daring (red), able (yellow) and invited
(green). According to Slotegraaf & Vlek (1997), the key drivers for using a particular
transport mode are able and invited, with able not only pertaining to one's personal
abilities, but particularly to whether too many barriers exist. Apter (2007) concurs,
provided people feel safe (protective frame). In short, people must feel safe before they
will consider cycling. First they must dare to cycle, then comes the question of whether
they are able and invited to cycle.

Figure 2 Dare, able and invited to cycle

Dare to cycle is the basis for a cyclist to begin cycling. Here the key elements are safety
and reliability, which, from the cyclist's viewpoint, means cycling routes must be safe in
terms of ‘road safety’ and ‘social safety’, with the latter still not garnering the attention it
deserves. The other key element is reliability. Reliability for a cyclist means the reliability
of the bicycle itself, a key, often overlooked factor. The emergence of 'cycling as a
service' in the Netherlands revealed a latent customer need (Swapfietsen.nl, for
example). The actual availability of rental bicycles is also a prerequisite; for example,
information about the availability and opening times of bicycle parking facilities can be a
key factor in a person’s decision as to whether he/she dares to cycle for all or part of the
trip. In public transport, the reliability element pertains more to the system itself and the
time needed for travelling. This fundamental desire relates to the emotional need for
trust, a strong point for bicycles, as they are highly reliable in terms of trip times! This
same reliability must also apply to the availability of cycling infrastructure and (rental)
bicycles.

Able to cycle is the next level. Here the speed and easiness elements are introduced in
the pyramid of customer needs. By speed we mean the door-to-door trip times. Cyclists
must invest money, time and effort (physical and mental) in a trip, and of these three
resources, time (for most people) is the scarcest, which is why transport professionals
do all they can to ensure people get from A to B as quickly as possible. Bicycle trip times
can be shortened by creating direct connections in the network, by giving priority at
intersections, and by ensuring improved infrastructure exists to limit interactions with
other road users in public spaces (cars, buses, parking, pedestrians). These basic
principles are commonly applied. What is new however are the improvements to the
actual bicycles: higher speeds can now be reached, thereby significantly increasing the
potential number of people ‘able’ to cycle within the constraints of time, money and
discomfort. That people travel at differing, conflicting speeds within the cycling
infrastructure poses new challenges for transport designers. The second element of
‘easiness’ is finding a route: can I easily reach my destination? Are the routes logical to
follow with or without signs? Easiness pertains to the mental effort cyclists must make to
travel in the right direction on time. Cyclists despise unnecessary complexity and want to
think as little as possible about following the right route. They actually say: "please don't
make me think!" This means that information and signs must be as informative and
straightforward as possible, to the extent that ideally even foreign tourists and children
can comprehend how the bicycle network works. Continuity is a key factor here, and
hence people often prefer routes via boulevards or historic streets. Moreover, it is easier
to follow routes that run along waterways or railways, particularly when there is also
continuity to the route design.

Invited to cycle is the third and highest level, pertaining to comfort and experience.
Comfort is the cyclist’s physical exertion during the trip. Most cyclists are averse to
strenuous physical exertion, longing instead for trip comfort. Consequently, they would
rather not cycle against the wind or up hills, for instance, prefer to cycle in the sunshine
not the rain, and do not like cycling overly long distances or on bumpy pavements;
moreover, they dislike noise, dust, noxious odours, vibrations or anything else that
causes physical discomfort. In short, they want a comfortable cycling environment, and
hence comfort is crucial for cyclists. The designs of public spaces can anticipate how
cyclists will feel there: the amount of space one has, the infrastructure’s priorities and
design features, the steepness of hills and bridges, and so forth. To ensure comfort,
special attention can also be devoted to bicycle parking facilities. Experience is the
ultimate ingredient: it is about quality time. Cyclists only really experience positive
feelings when the underlying, more functional qualities are fulfilled, thereby allowing
them to spend their trip times pleasantly and at their own discretion. Experience is
therefore primarily about positive emotions, and consequently the quality of the
environmental design is crucial: attractive and well-maintained landscapes, vibrant
colours and natural greenery, fresh air, variety, and nature sounds, like birdsong, ensure
that people enjoy cycling there. This can be a focal point in the route formation:
surprising elements, high quality urban spaces, cultural encounters and art objects, but
also the person’s experience as a cyclist, enjoying their ride through the city, the
characteristic elements, the people and places.

Focus on ‘satisfiers’: a new impulse for cycling policy

The bottom of the pyramid reflects the functional qualities, and the top the hedonistic
qualities. This means that negative emotions occur in pyramid’s lower section, especially
when something goes wrong, while positive emotions occur in the upper section,
particularly when cyclists are pleasantly surprised (Van Hagen & Foljanty, 2017; Van
Hagen & De Bruyn, 2015). Negative emotions include disappointment, frustration,
irritation, anger and aggression, which arise when something unexpected occurs, such as
a bicycle parking facility being closed or flat tires or closed bridges. Conversely, positive
emotions include relaxation, joy, pleasure and euphoria. Cyclists are pleasantly surprised
when given special attention in the form of secluded, varied routes (terraces, greenery,
an array of human-scaled buildings) or attractive landscapes featuring beautiful designs
and artworks. If cyclists are happy, they also give high marks on surveys - often ‘8’ and
higher. Comprehensively improving core processes does contribute to enhanced
customer satisfaction, but the impact diminishes as the performance improves, while
costs increase disproportionately.

A bicycle trip’s objective and purpose is another key factor. Here, a common distinction
is between ‘must-travellers’ and ‘lust-travellers’. Must-travellers travel with a sense of
purpose and above all want to travel fast; they usually know their routes, know how the
transport system works and simply want to arrive on time. For must-travellers,
reliability, speed and easiness are crucial, with the key outcome being that they reach
their destinations on time. Lust-travellers, meanwhile, are less experienced and primarily
want to enjoy the trip itself; consequently, they are much more interested in the
qualities positioned at the top of the pyramid. Lust-travellers are much less purpose-
driven and primarily cycle for pleasure, cycling recreationally or simply for shopping and
visiting family and friends. For lust-travellers, the bike ride itself is often a part of the
excursion, or in fact the main purpose of the excursion, and such cyclists expect to enjoy
their bike trips. In making cycling attractive, this group in particular must be encouraged
to use their bicycles more often.

Once the basic processes reach an acceptable level, a switch must be made to
intensifying measures at the top of the pyramid; this is the only way that cyclists can be
offered what they want and expect. In this way a new S-curve is created, and also with
an explicit focus on satisfiers (see Figure 3). Ultimately, it is better to leave well enough
alone, and once the basic service reaches a satisfactory level, the focus must also be
explicitly on satisfiers.
Figure 3 Dissatisfiers in order, then also focus on satisfiers.

Three urban environments based on the three levels

What happens when you go to a party that you were not invited to and where
subsequently your presence is merely tolerated: you do not stay too long and you
certainly do not return. This also applies to cyclists in urban environments, where the
environment communicates a message to cyclists: are you simply being tolerated? Or
are you invited: do you feel like the most important customer?

Emotions clearly play a key role in the choices we make; it is therefore vital that we
understand how emotions work. Emotions arise when a (sudden) event impedes or
supports our pursuit of personal objectives, such as the example of the party. The
emotions we feel largely determine our behaviour. Figure 4 illustrates how this is
interpreted in environmental psychology via a Stimulus, Organism and Response (SOR)
model (Mehrabian & Russell, 1974).

Figure 4 Stimulus Organism Response (SOR) model: how environmental stimuli


influence our behaviour via emotions

We perceive countless stimuli around us: consciously, such as information, but also
unconsciously, like temperature, crowding, colours, light intensity, sounds, smells, etc.
Our organism (our senses and brains) processes all these stimuli. Research has shown
that we perceive all stimuli on the unconscious level, and only a fraction on the
conscious level (Dijksterhuis, 2007, Apter, 2007, Zaltman, 1995 & 2008). Our brains
work intensively to block all stimuli that we do not need for our task at hand.
Concurrently, all stimuli – also that which we do not experience consciously – influence
our emotions and thus our behaviour. Emotions are therefore central in influencing
behaviour, and the key to influencing behaviour lies in administering the right dose of
environmental stimuli ─ the right information, colours, smells, designs, artworks,
sounds, etc. As in the example of the party, the behaviour will either cease and never
return (avoidance behaviour), or persist and happily return (approach behaviour).
Avoidance behaviour largely occurs in environments where people feel unsafe, like, for
example, when one experiences a bicycle route as too congested, polluted and noxious,
where windows, streetlights or other facilities are broken (Keizer, Lindenberg & Steg,
2008). Approach behaviour occurs when we feel welcome somewhere: open views,
tranquillity, beautiful designs, tasteful colours, artwork and greenery, all of which
making cyclists feel invited (Van Hagen, 2011, Van Hagen & Van Der Made, 2017).

Urban environments and cycling

Urban environments for cyclists can be classified according to the three levels of need:
dare, able and invited to cycle.

Dare: We find ‘dare-to-cycle’ environments in most international cities: poor cycling


infrastructure, lack of continuity, car-dominated surroundings, and undefined urban
spaces unsafe for cycling and often socially unsafe as well.

Able: We find 'able-to-cycle' environments in most cities in the Netherlands and


Denmark, as well as some cities in Belgium and Germany: it is a fundamentally safe
cycling infrastructure, but cyclists do not have priority over other modalities, like public
transport and car traffic. The space is limited, and waiting times at intersections can be
long.

Invited: An ‘invited-to-cycle’ environment is rare and only exists in a few Dutch cities,
like Houten, and in the centres of Utrecht and Amsterdam, or in newly constructed
dedicated cycling routes. Here, riding bicycles is the dominant means of transport, with
bicycles claiming the largest share of the public space, as cars are either prohibited or
subordinate to cyclists.

Generaal Lemanstraat, Antwerpen: a ‘dare to cycle’ environment


Zijlvest, Haarlem: an ‘able to cycle’ environment

Domstraat, Utrecht: an ‘invite to cycle’ environment

The next level in cycling policy: ‘invite to cycle’

The number of bicycle trips made in the city can be used as a measure for determining
bicycle use. The trips can be categorised according to distance ─ short, medium and long
trips ─ and according to the market segments using bicycles: young people, seniors,
women, men, et al. (Figure 5). The use of bicycles in urban environments can be incr
eased in two ways: increase the size of the group of people who use bicycles for trips of
certain distances, or have more people in that group cycle longer distances. The best

Figure 5 Dare, able and invited environments for cyclists


policy is to work both sides: a greater percentage of people using bicycles and for longer
trips. Presently, these longer trips are usually made by car.

We observed that in 'dare-to-cycle' environments it is primarily the relatively young


group of 'early-adopters' who cycle. The average cycling trip distance is limited, and the
bicycle’s share of the modal split is rarely higher than 4%. In a safe, welcoming ‘invited
to cycle' environment virtually everyone can ride bicycles, meaning that people aged 8 to
80 can ride bicycles comfortably and safely, and will also do so over longer distances;
consequently, the bicycles’ share of the modal split can reach 40% or more. Presently,
27% of Dutch people cycle. In Denmark, Europe’s second largest cycling country, that
figure is 20%, while in Great Britain it is only 2% (Heinen, 2009). Meanwhile, given the
growing popularity of (fast) electric bikes and dedicated (express) bicycle lanes, it is
becoming easier and more attractive to cycle longer distances in less time ─ see Table 1
(Pcr-Peter, 2015).

Table 1 Distances and trips times for various types of bicycles

Is attractiveness more important than speed?


To date, current planning, as well as the policy-based support for urban infrastructure,
has been sharply focused on shortening objective trip times by car, bicycle or public
transport, and consequently we implement dedicated bicycle lanes, HOV lanes and
through roads for car traffic. However, people seemingly have a poor sense of time: we
estimate lengths of time with high perceived value as fundamentally shorter, and lengths
of time with low perceived value as fundamentally longer (Van Hagen, 2011).
Meanwhile, our choice of modality is partly based on how long we expect a trip to take. A
minor field research study of cyclists’ time perception in Utrecht also confirmed that
cyclists have a poor sense of time, yet they are influenced by the environment: when
given the choice, the vast majority of cyclists chose an attractive, longer route over a
dull, shorter route (Van Hagen, Govers & De Haan, 2012). To determine whether this is
a common occurrence, Goudappel Coffeng, in collaboration with various stakeholders
(KiM, regional governments, local municipalities, UvA, NS and Thuisraad RO) initiated a
comprehensive follow-up study, in which some 1,500 respondents were shown videos of
(26 different) cycling routes in the Netherlands and then asked to grade them according
to their quality aspects and perceived durations. Each route was assessed by at least
125 respondents (Olde Kalter & Groenendijk, 2018). The research confirmed the Utrecht
experiment’s findings: attractiveness was seemingly more important than speed. The
route’s attractiveness largely determined how it was perceived, expressed as ‘whether
someone wants to cycle somewhere’: a positive correlation existed between the two
variables, r = .827, p <.0001. There was also a positive significant correlation between
the cycling route’s variation and how it was perceived (r = .524, p <.000). How short
the route seemed to be had a small yet significant correlation (r = .071, p <.000) to the
perception of a cycling route (see Figure 6).

“I much prefer to cycle on attractive and varied


routes than on less attractive and dull routes”

Figure 6 Correlation between ‘glad to cycle somewhere’ and attractive, varied and
short route

In addition to assessing the routes’ attractiveness and variation, the respondents were
also asked to estimate the trip’s duration. Figure 7 shows the route’s actual duration in
green, and the average duration in dark blue, as estimated by the respondents. The
estimated duration was on average 1.5 times longer than the actual duration, meaning
the respondents found the cycling routes to be longer on average than the actual
duration, which again showed that the respondents were poor at estimating time (Van
Hagen & Thüsh, 2016, Van Hagen, 2011).

Figure 7 Respondents estimates of duration of bicycle routes


The respondents always assessed two routes, and for the majority of the cases included
in this study, they clearly preferred one of the two routes. In addition to route choice,
the respondents were also asked to choose between the two routes based on various
aspects of the experience: variety, attractiveness, convenience, comfort, congestion and
speed. In all cases the route perceived as most attractive was also the most chosen
route. In nearly all cases a preference for the other aspects of the experience also
corresponded to the route choice.

Figure 8 For respondents the most attractive route was the decisive factor in route
choice

There was a negative relationship between the experienced duration and the perception
of a route: attractive, varied routes were experienced as shorter than less attractive,
less varied routes. By linking the physical and environmental characteristics to the
grades given for the cycling routes’ attractiveness, we could determine the extent to
which each factor contributed to an attractive cycling route. The factors specifically
contributing to a route’s overall attractiveness are those that give cyclists a sense of
calmness and feeling that they are welcome. Cyclists experience fewer stimuli when
cycling through verdant environments, untroubled by other traffic, and this positively
effects their experience, as do familiar landmarks, like church spires or certain buildings.
Bike paths or cycling lanes let cyclists know that they are welcome and that the cycling
route was especially designed for them, which gives cyclists a good feeling and
translates into a more positive experience. The opposite effect occurs in environments
congested with parked cars and bicycles or where cyclists must contend with other
traffic; in such situations, cyclists experience more negative stimuli, feel pressured and
uneasy, and this detracts from the cycling route’s perceived attractiveness.
Figure 9 Aspects of attractive and unattractive cycling routes

Measuring is knowing: toward a cycling experience monitor

In the coming years Amsterdam municipality wants to develop the city into a healthy
and accessible cycling city. Current cycling bottlenecks must be resolved, while questions
remain as to which physical measures should support the endeavour. Additionally,
measures are envisioned that will ensure Amsterdam remains a pleasant cycling city in
the future. To monitor this development, Amsterdam municipality developed a
measurement tool for gauging how the measures are impacting ‘cycling satisfaction’
levels in the city (Amsterdam Municipality, 2018). An equally pertinent starting point is
the various insights and experiences NS has amassed over the past decade through its
customer experience research. Consequently, in collaboration with Amsterdam
municipality, we devised a questionnaire in which respondents were not only asked
about dissatisfiers, but also satisfiers.

More attention on experience


The questions in the cycling experience monitor adhered to the following themes,
representing the various levels of the pyramid of customer needs: Safety, Speed,
Easiness, Comfort and Attractiveness. In terms of the cycling experience monitor’s
theoretical framework, it is in the Amsterdam’s best interest to invest in improving the
experience of riding bicycles, as this ultimately leads to a higher final assessment. Table
2 shows how cyclists scored the various levels of the customer needs pyramid, and the
extent to which each quality level contributes to the general assessment of cycling, as
compressed into daring, able and invited to cycle.
Table 2 Evaluations and impact on general assessment of cycling in Amsterdam

Levels of Customer Needs Score Relative Dare Relative


Pyramid contribution Able contribution
to assessment Invited to assessment
of cycling in of cycling in
Amsterdam Amsterdam
Attractiveness theme (6 items) 6.3 30% Invited 56%
Comfort theme (4 items) 6.5 26%
Easiness theme (4 items) 7.0 23% Able 31%
Speed theme (4 items) 6.3 8%
Safety theme (1 item) 6.7 13% Dare 13%

Analysis revealed that satisfiers (attractiveness and comfort themes) are as important as
dissatisfiers (safety, speed and easiness themes). Notably, attractiveness contributes the
most to the general assessment of cycling in Amsterdam, yet it receives the lowest
score. Safety and speed add little to the general assessment, meaning that these
prerequisites for dare and able to cycle are already reasonably well established, although
older people give lower scores across the board than younger people, while for public
transport the scoring is the exact opposite. Older cyclists seemingly do not always feel
comfortable on bikes in Amsterdam. We expect more people will want to cycle if older
cyclists are considered the key target group, key bottlenecks are resolved, and greater
attention is given to the cycling routes’ attractiveness, and this will also further improve
the general assessment of cycling. An added benefit is that investments in satisfiers are
routinely less expensive than investments in dissatisfiers: it is cheaper to add greenery
or highlight beautiful designs en route than to construct tunnels or implement traffic
control installations, for example. If balanced choices are made between investments in
dissatisfiers and satisfiers, the cycling experience will receive higher assessments at
lower costs.

Toward a more attractive cycling network

Once a newly created bicycle network is established that does justice to the principles of
dare, able and invited to cycle, we expect more people will ride bicycles instead of
travelling via other transport modes. Cycling throughout the entire network is not only
safer, faster and easier, but cycling is also healthier and increasingly more attractive. We
expect the particularly vulnerable road users, like children and the elderly, to be among
the first to want or be allowed to cycle, as well as people who are in a hurry – a fast,
convenient cycling network will become attractive to use (see also figure 5).

Conclusions and recommendations

As based on the theory of customer experience in public transport, a definition of the


three levels of cycling – dare, able, invited – can help clarify the current situation and
aims for policy makers. NS successfully deployed the customer needs pyramid to
improve train customer satisfaction, and this approach also seems particularly promising
for cycling policy.

Cycling policy in the Netherlands has thus far largely focused on speed and directness, in
addition to traffic safety. Much has already been achieved in this respect and the
foundation seems well established. However, current cycling policy still needs to focus on
certain key points from the customer perspective: social safety, availability of shared
bicycles, parking facility opening times, and innovations to the transport mode itself.

Research has also shown that speed is considerably less influential than the
attractiveness factor. Cyclists have no sense of time, but they do have a sense of
‘perceived’ time, and this determines what choices they make. We therefore recommend
shifting the focus from dissatisfiers to satisfiers. The next step in cycling policy’s
development should focus on converting an 'able-to-cycle' environment in the city into
an 'invite-to-cycle' environment, thereby exerting more control over the 'dare’ to cycle
aspect. This will require an integrated approach to public space, focused on creating a
higher experiential value.

More research is needed to determine how the market share for cyclists will be
impacted: our working hypothesis is that the group of people who routinely cycle will
increase, as will the average cycling distances. Consequently, the market share for
cyclists will increase quadratically: more people cycling and also over longer distances.

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