Pruitt 1

Blake Pruitt

Professor Malcolm Campbell

UWRT 1103

September 23, 2019

Topic Proposal: The Automaton Replacers

Introduction/Overview

I will be investigating the theorized future impact of AI on the job market. More

specifically, the manufacturing industry in the United States. AI usually has a bad reputation

when it comes to the average manufacturing laborer. But why? We’d have to look at the

definition to understand why they are so scared of AI, “Artificial intelligence (AI), the ability of

a digital computer or computer-controlled robot to perform tasks commonly associated with

intelligent beings.” (Copeland) They see, “perform tasks commonly associated with intelligent

beings,” a.k.a. humans, and see that as their new replacement. According to ZipRecruiter, “One

in five job seekers (one in three for those between the ages of 18 and 22) fear they will one day

lose their job to AI (survey of more than 11,000 job seekers in the US).”(Press) It’s a reasonable

assumption, automation is a normal process that has occurred throughout history, replacing many

with the few, just with new tools. Hope is not all lost though, where there is a loss in jobs, there

is an increase in others. (Muro, Maxim and Whiton, 19-28) The thing is, if intelligent life is

created, what does that mean for these manufacturing jobs? Will it be the laborers worse

nightmare, or will it be fine as it ever was? Using knowledge from the past and present can lead

to a possible answer, but ultimately time is the only one who can tell.

Artificial Intelligence is a very popular topic today, as the work has made great strides in

the past 2-3 decades, but the concept of AI was introduced by Samuel Butler in 1863, where he
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detailed a Darwinist approach towards machinery, putting man below the developed machine

(Victoria), but the idea of AI was later fully developed by Alan Turing in 1945. Turing proposed

the idea of a “’machine that can learn from experience.’” (Copeland) This statement was very

broad though, a computer could learn from “experience” in many ways, so Turing came up with

“The Turing Test,” which was designed to specify Turing’s dream of a computer that was

undistinguishable from a human. Which is still a feat no one has been able to accomplish.

(Copeland) This lack of ability to create a computer that can think and fail like a human, goes

back to Butler’s idea of a higher lifeform, which may scare the common laborer.

There are two main problems with addressing the effects of AI on the future, is that they

are mostly theoretical at this point and they are based around other innovations and technologies

impact. Addressing the past influence on the numbers, they are mostly based off a past invention

that shook the world, the invention of the personal computer. The personal computer, drastically

transformed the job market, jobs that were considered “middle-skilled,” like manufacturing, soon

became “lower-wage local service activities.” This was daunting, but as more jobs were being

pushed down, new jobs were being created to fill that spot, namely IT’s otherwise known as

Information Technologists. This new transition of routine manufacturing jobs to the “lower-

skilled” job pool saw an influx of workers moving to big cities to meet the new consumer

demands, “Manufacturing centers like Winston-Salem, N.C., Chicago, and Pittsburgh as well as

transitioning knowledge centers like New York, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C., all of

which had upward of 32 percent of their jobs in routine-intensive employment in 1980,

experienced increases in low-skill service employment of more than 12 percentage points

between 1980 and 2016.” (Muro, Maxim and Whiton, 28) The effects of a paradigm shift like the

personal computer act as a guideline to try and predict the outlook of how jobs will be affected
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by AI. The main emphasis goes on “try” because even though AI and personal computers are

both technologies, they are not the same in functionality, as one requires input to output always,

while the other learns and adapts to various situations without a main source of human

interaction.

According to World Economic Forum, “automation will displace 75 million jobs but

generate 133 million new ones worldwide by 2022.” Researchers can’t all agree on the numbers,

where some may speculate an increase in jobs, there is likely to be another that says otherwise,

for example, according to Forrester, they predict there will be “job losses of 29%” and “13% job

creation” leaving a net job loss. (Press) The problem with these estimates, is how they are

focused in the media, the average person would think that all those jobs are getting totally

replaced with AI, but according to Byron Reese, percentages like Carl Frey and Michael

Osborne’s 47% job loss to AI, are actually a misrepresentation by the media, and are in fact an

outlook on certain functions within 47% of jobs being replaced by AI. (Reese) This adds a third

dimension to the outlook of all these percentages and trying to figure out what is the actual job

loss and growth.

AI’s impact on the manufacturing industry is left ambiguous for the most part, there are

certainly time periods where major change happens, like the industrial revolution or the “IT era,”

that can be cited for how job markets reacted to innovation and technology. Every situation is

unique though, and as society and technology develops, there can certainly be a time where the

cycle is broken. So, the recommended plan for the future of laborers, is to improve oneself to be

a higher-class worker, through developing soft skills, creativity, and pursuing higher knowledge,

for the limitations of AI can’t replicate such things at this point. (Muro, Maxim and Whiton, 29)
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My preliminary research began with a Wikipedia search of AI and then the science

fiction surrounding AI, gaining a basis for its origins, the debate over AI integrating into society

and occupations, as well as looking for good sources through the citations. After gaining some

knowledge of the subject and some sources, I did a google search for “impact of ai on machine

jobs,” which brought me to various articles, online books, encyclopedias, and research papers,

including Forbes, Automation and Artificial Intelligence by Mark Muro, Robert Maxim, Jacob

Whiton, and Ian Hathaway, and Encyclopedia Britannica. These resources allowed me to access

definitions, statistics behind the impact of innovation and automation, current limitations, impact

by media, and more.

Initial Inquiry Question(s)

What is the future impact of AI on manufacturing jobs in the United States?

My Interest in this Topic

I’m interested in AI and its impact because ever since I was a child, watching TV and

playing videogames, I found the robotic friend or foe an interesting character, it always led to

interesting character dynamics and storylines, whether it be the quirky teenage robot who saves

the day, the robot that’s just trying to understand life like a human, or the robot who goes back in

time to stop the human resistance and wears cool shades. That’s not the main reason I started

research on this topic though, I checked out the articles, “There’s a reason we don’t know much

about AI” and “Artificial intelligence is now as smart as an 8th grader,” that Professor Campbell

posted and those caught my intention and kept it, but I already had another topic in mind, which

was about premonitions. I initially chose premonitions as my topic because I would sometimes

encounter that “Déjà vu” moment, or would have some premonitions when I was sleeping, and I

wanted to study the science, if any, behind that phenomenon. Then while researching that
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phenomenon, I came across an article that outlined the goal to try and make AI that could see or

predict the future and its applications. I looked further into that topic and came up with the idea

of trying to acquire such technology and use it to predict a crime before it happens. The problem

was that there was no major debate on the subject when I was researching it. So taking it as a

sign, I looked more into AI and found this argument and remembered my parents talking about

hearing this on the news. I had an “ah-ha” moment and decided this was going to be my topic but

narrowed it down to the manufacturing industry.

I already knew about the news reports about AI being integrated into occupations and

replacing workers. I knew about the AI “Deep Blue” who beat a grandmaster at chess, and the

fact that AI has not reached the point of being human, or as close to a human could be. I hope to

learn about the actual impact AI will have on the near future as well as the far-off future, and

find out the progression of AI towards meeting the standards for “The Turing Test.”

Next Steps
The next steps going forward involve, investigating researchers like, McKinsey Global

Institute, Oxford Economics, World Economic Forum, and Forrester to try and see how they

acquired their numbers. I will be looking through the library’s databases as well to look for peer-

reviewed works that could pertain to them or to other studies on this topic and the reactions to

AI, since most people don’t even know what AI is. I think I will also be looking through the

library’s database about past AI advancements and achievements to see their impact on the fields

they were incorporated in.

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Sources:

Muro Mark, Maxim Robert, and Whiton Jacob. Automation and Artificial Intelligence: How
Machines are Affecting People and Places. With contributions from Ian Hathaway, Metropolitan
Policy Program at Brookings, January 2019, pp. 4-8, 13-16, 19-46. www.brookings.edu/wp-
content/uploads/2019/01/2019.01_BrookingsMetro_Automation-AI_Report_Muro-Maxim-
Whiton-FINAL-version.pdf. Accessed September 23, 2019.

Petropoulos Georgios. “The Impact of Artificial Intelligence of Employment.” Work in the

Digital Age. Rowman & Littlefield International Ltd., July 31, 2018, pp.119-130.
www.bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Impact-of-AI-Petroupoulos.pdf. Accessed
September 23, 2019.

Press, Gil. “Is AI Going to be a Jobs Killer? New Reports about the Future of Work.” Forbes
Media LLC., July 15, 2019. www.forbes.com/sites/gilpress/2019/07/15/is-ai-going-to-be-a-jobs-
killer-new-reports-about-the-future-of-work/#39f9d2dbafb2. Accessed September 23, 2019.

Reese, Byron. “AI Will Create Millions More Jobs Than It Will Destroy. Here’s How.”
Singularity University. January 1, 2019. www.singularityhub.com/2019/01/01/ai-will-create-
millions-more-jobs-than-it-will-destroy-heres-how/. Accessed September 23, 2019.

Allen, Arthur, “There’s a Reason We Don’t Know Much About AI.” Politico LLC. September
16, 2019. www.politico.com/agenda/amp/story/2019/09/16/artificial-intelligence-study-data-
000956?__twitter_impression=true. Accessed September 17, 2019.

Watson, Taylor. “Artificial Intelligence Is Now as Smart as an 8th Grader.” The Week
Publications Inc., September 4, 2019. www.theweek.com/speedreads/862769/artificial-
intelligence-now-smart-8th-grader. Accessed September 4, 2019.

Copeland, B.J. “Artificial Intelligence” Encyclopædia Britannica inc., May 9, 2019.

www.britannica.com/technology/artificial-intelligence. Accessed September 23, 2019.

Butler, Samuel, “Darwin Among the Machines,” A First Year in Canterbury Settlement with
Other Early Essays. Victoria University of Wellington. London, 1914. pp. 180-185.
www.nzetc.victoria.ac.nz/tm/scholarly/tei-ButFir-t1-g1-t1-g1-t4-body.html. Accessed September
24, 2019.