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The Monthly MMI®:


The Elusive Market Bottom
November 2015
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Table of Contents
1. Introduction/Overview/Executive Commentary on This Month’s MMIs

2. Aluminum MMI® - November 2015

3. Copper MMI® - November 2015

4. Stainless/Nickel MMI® -November 2015

5. Raw Steels MMI® - November 2015

6. Rare Earths MMI® - November 2015

7. Automotive MMI® - November 2015

8. Construction MMI® - November 2015

9. Renewables MMI® - November 2015

10. GOES (Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel) MMI® - November 2015

11. Global Precious Metals MMI® - November 2015

12. A Note on MetalMiner's Price Forecasting Capability


MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. 3 of 16

Introduction and Overview


Thank you for taking a look at a very exciting offering we launched in January 2012 here at
MetalMiner. The genesis behind creating a range of indexes began with a phone call from one
of our readers, a very large oil and services firm. We spoke with a commodity analyst who
called to ask a very simple question: “Do you know of any indexes besides the BLS indexes
that can help me track what is happening for a range of metal products that I buy?”

We asked a set of follow-up questions – what metals do you buy, and what do you perceive as
the limitations of existing BLS data?

The company buys a range of steel, stainless steel and nickel alloy high-pressure semi-
finished products. The BLS data typically tracks only one single product/grade and, more
importantly, bears little resemblance to what the company had paid for the range of products.
The commodity analyst asked if we could do better.

We couldn’t promise a resounding “Yes” to that question yet (you’ll need to be the judge), but
we said we’d at least take a shot. The 10 MMI reports that appear in this document represent
our best initial attempt to devise a range of indexes that would provide value in the market
using the following guidelines as the basis:

1. Each index should represent a basket of metals or raw materials (depending on the
category) that impact the cost structure for that particular metal market (e.g. coking
coal, scrap, and iron ore for steel prices)
2. The inputs should reflect the global market for that commodity. BLS indexes by
default only include US data, but that may/may not be representative of underlying
global price trends
3. Metal prices often depend upon the underlying demand for various industries (e.g.
steel prices relate to construction industry activity), hence the addition of several key
industry verticals that impact multiple metal markets

Readers can use these MMIs for a range of activities:

1. To better understand underlying month-to-month metal price trends across industries


as well as within specific metal markets
2. To use as an economic indicator, much like the ISM PMI (Purchasing Manager’s
Index) monthly numbers or the BLS PPIs (Producer Price Index)
3. To use for forecasting and predictive analytics
4. To better understand which commodities have the greatest volatility

*Please Note: Exact prices for ALL metals and raw materials in all categories are
available to MetalMiner IndXSM subscribers. Log onto http://agmetalminer.com/metals-
price-index/ for more info!

Contact Us!

Email: info@agmetalminer.com
Phone: 773.525.9750
MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. 4 of 16

Executive Commentary on This Month’s MMIs


The Search for a Market Bottom Continues

This month we saw some encouraging signs that the metals undergirding our MMIs, such
as Copper and Stainless, have finally bottomed out, but the overall trend still pointed to
historically low prices. The underlying prices comprising our steel, aluminum, construction and
renewables indexes all fell again.

Even the strong performers in this bear market, such as copper and stainless, come with a
caveat: that their gain — for copper, a 1.5% increase and a 1.4% increase for automotive — or
simply steady performance could very well be mere pauses in a year of losses, rather than true
market bottoms. The Stainless and Rare Earths MMIs managed to hold their low price levels
from October. Certainly good news for producers in this market, but not indicative, yet, of any
real potential for future increases.

The Global Precious MMI showed a genuine increase of 4.1% with strong price performance
from all its individual metal components. This includes increases in gold and silver as hedges
against what some investors perceive as a future move to weaken the US dollar’s continuing
strength against commodities and other currencies, an increase in interest rates.

It also encompassed a strong rebound by PGMs as they seemed to shrug off the recent
Volkswagen emissions scandal. Platinum and palladium ETF outflows approached record lows
this month.

Unfortunately, when dealing with markets that have been down as long as metals have this
year, it’s easy to get carried away and believe the worst of it is over. There is little sign that the
tide of cheap imports hampering both steel and aluminum will be stemmed anytime soon. That
likely means continued low prices for automotive and construction sectors as well as their
base indexes.

In fact, since we published this month’s Copper MMI, much of what lead analyst Raul de
Frutos predicted has come to pass. Copper’s gain appears to be a dead cat bounce and, so
far, mine shutdowns have been unsuccessful in triggering a bull run.

We advise buyers to study metal markets closely and only buy forward when completely
necessary as most of these markets are still oversupplied and we don’t yet know if their
bottoms will even be sharp — or fat and flat.

– Lisa Reisman, Executive Editor, MetalMiner


MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. 5 of 16

One-Year MMI Trends

MMI Index Value (Jan. 2012 baseline = 100)


100

90

80 Aluminum
Global Precious Metals
70 Automotive
Construction
Copper
60
Stainless Steel
Renewables
50 Raw Steels

40

30

20
Rare Earths
10

0
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2014 2015
© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.
MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. 6 of 16

Alcoa Cuts Production as Aluminum MMI Drops


100
Aluminum

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100


95
MMI®
90

85

80 October 2015
76
75
November
70 72
Down 5.3%
Index Value

65 December 2015
TBD
60
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2014 2015

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM. Learn how to subscribe - click here!

In case you’ve been in a cave, sheltered from the aluminum market’s precipitous dive, here’s a
timeline snapshot:

September 28th: Alcoa announces the company would split in two. The firm found that its
legacy smelting business, the company’s vertically integrated structure, is not the advantage it
once was.

October 28th: 3-month London Metal Exchange aluminum falls as low as $1,460 per metric
ton, the lowest price since June 2009.

November 2: Alcoa announces it would reduce aluminum smelting capacity by 503,000 mt


and alumina refining capacity by 1.2 million mt, beginning in Q4 2015 and completed by the
end of Q1 2016. The announcement is one more step by Alcoa to remain competitive in one of
the toughest periods for aluminum producers in history.

China is Still Overproducing


According to Reuters, Alcoa’s cuts, coupled with recent announcements by Century, make up
30% of US aluminum production and will leave just four smelters operating in the nation, with
capacity to produce 759,600 mt per year. That’s the lowest output since the 1950s.

Import Glut
Aluminum prices have plummeted thanks, in part, to a glut of Chinese exports. Despite low
prices, analysts still remain skeptical that Chinese producers will cut production as local
governments are very determined to keep smelters open. Although some high-cost smelters
have cut production, China continues to add production on the west side of the country, where
coal-based power is cheaper.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL ALUMINUM PRICES.
The Aluminum MMI® collects and weights 12 global aluminum price points to provide a unique
view into aluminum price trends over a 30-day period.
MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. 7 of 16

Copper Unable to Rally Despite Price Jump


100
Copper

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100


95 MMI®
90

85
October 2015
80 65
November
75 66
Up 1.5%
Index Value

70
December 2015
TBD
65
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2014 2015

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM. Learn how to subscribe - click here!

Our Copper MMI index rose by just 1 point in November to 66 from 65 in October.

Like other base metals, copper prices have been more stable over the past three months. After
the metal plummeted during the summer, prices recovered from six-year lows on the back
of supply cuts by major producers. However, we still see a lot of price weakness across the
board and the fact that prices are not able to fully rally on supply cuts may be indicative of the
fact that we have yet to see a floor for copper prices.

In early November, Glencore announced that it would reduce its copper production more
than expected. The company is now aiming to cut output by 455,000 metric tons by the end
of 2017, 14% up from its previously announced figures. Glencore’s cuts and another recently
announced pullback in production from Freeport-McMoRan could raise hopes of more
shutdowns, however, other major producers have indicated that they don’t have any intention
of cutting production.

Low Prices, Lower Costs


Despite low prices, many copper producers are still earning decent profits thanks to lower
operating costs. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Group are ramping up their copper production.

In fact, BHP says that its mines are still generating cash. The company is confident that its
well-diversified and low-cost portfolio will keep generating profits in spite of falling prices.
Meanwhile, Rio Tinto announced no intentions to cut its production and lose market share.
Thanks to its low-cost assets, the company sees an opportunity to actually increase its market
share by expanding its Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia.

Given that 45% of copper demand comes from China, the slowdown in the Chinese economy
offset the boost from production cuts on copper prices. So far, mine shutdowns have been
unsuccessful in triggering a bull run. It seems that production cuts are only giving support to
falling copper prices but it remains unclear if these shutdowns would hold prices against more
disappointing macroeconomic releases coming from China.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL COPPER PRICES.
MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. 8 of 16

Stainless MMI, Again, Holds Steady


100

Stainless

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100


95

90
MMI®
85

80
October 2015
75 59
70 November
59
65
Flat/Steady
Index Value

60 December 2015
TBD
55
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2014 2015

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM. Learn how to subscribe - click here!

Our Stainless MMI held steady at 59 for the second consecutive month.

Nickel prices are hovering near the lows of 2009. That level is giving support to prices
as traders remain hesitant on whether nickel prices can go below recession levels. While
other base metals are still trading comfortably above recession lows, nickel could be the
first industrial metal hitting that psychological level.

Another factor supporting prices this month is the speculation that Glencore Plc, the
world’s fifth-largest producer of nickel, could cut nickel production following cuts to
its copper and zinc output to reduce its heavy debt levels. Moreover, other industry
shutdowns could follow given that 60% of the world’s nickel is estimated to be non-
profitable at current price levels.

Can Prices Go Up?


Some analysts argue that Philippine ore won’t be sufficient to cover nickel pig-iron
(NPI) producers’ capacity in China, tightening the nickel market. However, Indonesia is
already working on producing more NPI, as the country is pushing to win more profit
from its mineral sources. Chinese producer Tsingshan Group is set to triple its capacity
to produce NPI in Indonesia as soon as May, having an installed capacity of 900,000
metric tons of NPI.

Even though nickel’s supply-demand dynamics may actually be tightening, the market is
facing other problems:

High Stock Prices


A period of super-fast production growth has left record high inventories. Although LME
stocks declined in October, they are still above 400,000 mt, almost 5 times higher than
in 2011. Such a huge overhang of metal is pressuring prices, removing any hopes of
market deficit.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL
STAINLESS/NICKEL PRICES.
The Stainless MMI® collects and weights 14 global stainless steel and raw material price
points to provide a unique view into stainless steel price trends over a 30-day period.
MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. 9 of 16

Iron Ore Capacity Up, Raw Steels MMI Down


100

Raw Steels

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100


95
90 MMI®
85
80

75
October 2015
70
51
65 November
60 48
55 Down 5.9%
Index Value

50 December 2015
TBD
45
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2014 2015

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndX - learn how to subscribe, click here!

The Raw Steels MMI fell 5.9% to 48 points, the first time our index has ever fallen below 50
points and, of course, another all-time low.

Steel prices continued to fall in October, stressing the risks of buying large quantities when
prices look “cheap” while the market is in bearish mode.

Foreign markets have provided a home for the glut of steel that the oversupplied Chinese
market has created with its overcapacity and weak demand. Chinese exports continue to
grow year-over-year. In September, the vice-chairman of the China Iron & Steel Association
(CISA) said that they expect Chinese steel product exports to exceed 100 million metric tons
this year. So far, during the first 8 months, product exports reached 71.87 mmt, up 26.5%
compared to the same period in 2014.

Declining Market-Based Production


Cheap Chinese imports combined with the glut of inventory explains the decline in US steel
production. Capacity utilization fell to 71.3% in October. Adjusted year-to-date production
through October is down 8% while capacity utilization is also significantly down from the same
period last year. Capacity utilization remains persistently below 80% this year, hurting the
revenues of American steel mills.

Not only domestically, but low prices continue to hurt steel manufacturers around the globe. In
October, steelmaker Tata Steel announced 1,200 job cuts in the UK. The decision came only
weeks after Sahaviria Steel Industries announced 2,200 job cuts due to the closure of one of
its facilities. It is estimated that less than 50% of global steelmakers are profitable at current
levels. High-cost mill closures have already taken place, but they are minimal in the context of
overall capacity.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL RAW STEEL PRICES.
The Raw Steels MMI® collects and weights 13 global steel and raw material price points to
provide a unique view into global steel price trends over a 30-day period. For more information
on the Raw Steels MMI®, please drop us a note at: info@agmetalminer.com.
MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. 10 of 16

Rare Earths Stand Pat, Can't Find Support


100

90
Rare Earths

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100


80 MMI®
70

60
October 2015
50
18
40 November
18
30
Steady/Flat
Index Value

20 December 2015
10
TBD
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2014 2015

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM. Learn how to subscribe - click here!

The Rare Earths MMI held steady at 18 for the third straight month, settling in at a low price
point that it has fluctuated around for the entire year.

In the bearish commodity environment, specialty metals such as rare earths are not likely
to break price resistance anytime soon without a major supply shock. The biggest news in
rare earths this month was that US producer Molycorp, Inc. filed its restructuring plan in
bankruptcy court.

Molycorp’s recovery plan envisions a dual-track process wherein its assets are actively
marketed for sale, either as a whole or through the separate sale of its business units.
Molycorp’s four business units are chemicals and oxides, magnetic materials and alloys,
rare metals, and resources, which consists primarily of its assets at its Mountain Pass, Calif.,
mining facility which it shut down in August. Molycorp previously said it would continue
production at its mines in Estonia and China.

“If approved, the plan would help to significantly reduce our $1.9 billion of debt and cut our
interest expense, putting us on a more solid financial and operational footing going forward,”
said Geoff Bedford, Molycorp President and Chief Executive Officer.

While the plan looks like it could work, it would make Molycorp a US-based producer in
name only and cause the nation to lose one of its few remaining miners, depending on who
purchases the business units at Mountain Pass. The lengthy process to restart mining at
Mountain Pass would likely mean it will be years after a sale before production could begin
anew.

Our recommendation remains the same for manufacturers looking to purchase rare earths,
remain conservative and do not attempt to catch falling market knives.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE AND ALL GLOBAL RARE EARTH PRICES.
The Rare Earths MMI® collects and weights 14 global rare earth metal price points to provide a
unique view into rare earth metal price trends over a 30-day period.
MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. 11 of 16

Automotive MMI Bounces, Might Not Last


100
Automotive

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100


95 MMI®

90

October 2015
85
72
80
November
73
Up 1.4%
Index Value

75
December 2015
70 TBD
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2014 2015

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM. Learn how to subscribe - click here!

The Automotive MMI bounced 1.4% this month but we would caution metal buyers to wait a
bit longer before calling this anything close to a market bottom.

As MetalMiner co-founder Stuart Burns adroitly pointed out recently, no two metals’ bottoming
out experiences will be the same. Some will be sharp and some, particularly steel, could be fat
and flat. It should come as no surprise to our readers that steel and aluminum were, again, the
laggards in our automotive metals index.

A mini-surge from copper and relative strength in platinum and palladium were able to
collectively raise the index to its small gain this month. Therein lies the true problem for long-
term Automotive MMI growth: there are signs that PGM prices will not be able to hold the
modest gains they’ve made in recent weeks.

Eeek… TFs
Platinum- and palladium-backed exchange-traded funds tracked by Reuters were facing their
biggest monthly outflows at the end of October since the data series began in 2010.

Platinum flowing out of ETFs is good news for the dollar and bad news for dollar-
denominated commodities, such as precious metals. The bulk of the selling was seen from
the Johannesburg-listed NewPlat ETF operated by Absa Capital, which saw its holdings fall
134,000 ounces in October, according to Reuters.

While the Volkswagen scandal did not cause the price losses some expected for exhaust
system metals such as platinum and palladium, the muted market reaction may still be
growing. ETF outflows have also pushed gold to 4-week lows, too, and we would expect more
losses for automotive metals as aluminum and steel have very little upside right now

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE AND ALL GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE PRICES.
The Automotive MMI® collects and weights 7 metal price points used in automotive
production to provide a unique view into automotive metal trends over a 30-day period. For
more information on the Automotive MMI®, please drop us a note at: info@agmetalminer.com
MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. 12 of 16

Construction MMI Down Again


100
Construction

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100


95

90
MMI®
85

80 October 2015
67
75
November
70 65
Down 3%
Index Value

65
December 2015
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2014 2015 TBD

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM. Learn how to subscribe - click here!

Our Construction MMI was, once again, a victim of a brutal commodity environment with high
production from China and a strong dollar encouraging import purchase and dwindling market
share for US producers of aluminum, steel, stainless and other construction metals. The index
dropped 3% to fall to 65, yet another all-time low.

US construction spending actually rose in September to its highest level in seven-and-a-half


years as both private and public outlays increased, suggesting a modest upward revision to
the third-quarter GDP growth estimate.

Construction Up As Prices Lag


Estimators and procurement professionals are clearly taking advantage of the low-cost
environment and buying forward, which is not a great strategy in this market as we have seen
every indication that prices will continue falling. Buying now is, essentially, attempting to catch
a falling knife.

Construction spending has actually increased every month this year in the US. This week,
economists from the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), American Institute of
Architects (AIA), and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) predicted continued
construction industry growth in 2016 during a joint economic forecast web conference
Tuesday.

Oversupply for Export


The low-cost environment has created a domestic boom that builders and contractors are
taking advantage of. One would think that increasing demand must eventually cause prices to
rise, but that’s simply not the case for aluminum, steel and stainless as so much overcapacity
has been built up, mostly by overproduction in China.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL CONSTRUCTION
PRICES.
The Construction MMI® collects and weights 9 metal price points used in the construction
industry to provide a unique view into construction industry price trends over 30-days. For
more information on the Construction MMI®, drop us a note at: jyoders@metalminer.com
MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. 13 of 16

Renewables Still Wading in a Low-Price Range


100
Renewables

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100


95
MMI®
90

85

80
October 2015
75
55
70
November
65 53
60 Down 3.6%
Index Value

55 December 2015
TBD
50
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2014 2015

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM. Learn how to subscribe - click here!

The Renewables MMI fell 3.6% this month, erasing last month’s gains and losing a bit more to
hit a fresh all-time low.

As we cautioned last month, renewables look like they have farther to fall. The low-price range
they have been trading in for the past six months is, itself, a downward departure from its
previous range, in the 60s, where it had been since January 2013.

Why Renewables Prices Stay Low


The bearish commodity picture is certainly a part of the problem for renewables but the sector
looks increasingly price-challenged as most of the metals trading in this range, such as steel,
had sharp losses and selloffs in the last year whereas renewables have lost comparatively little
of their value in 2014 and 2015.

Steel plate, itself, has been a big part of renewables’ falling price range this year. Used in the
construction of wind turbines and some certified sustainable construction projects, steel plate
prices have dipped under pressure from cheaper overseas imports and a strong dollar.

Silicon and cobalt have fallen, as well, despite strong demand for photovoltaic solar panels.
Both wind and solar have proven themselves as power generating technologies, so much
so that this week, unlikely advocate BP said the cost of producing energy from renewable
sources will fall sharply over the next 35 years. BP’s statement went on to say without a
system in place that levies a charge for carbon emitted into the atmosphere, natural gas and
coal will remain the cheapest source of supply to 2050.

We’re BP and We’re Here to Help


Hard to believe that BP is truly on the cap and trade bandwagon but, as an entity, it would
know energy markets better than most. BP’s report analyzed the impact of technology on
energy production and consumption in coming decades. The oil giant said that a carbon price
of $40 a metric ton would make gas a more economical power source then coal.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE AND ALL RENEWABLES PRICES.
The Renewables MMI® collects and weights 8 metal price points over a 30-day period.
MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. 14 of 16

GOES M3 Spot Price Takes a Dive


225
Grain-Oriented

Jan 2004 Baseline = 100


220
215
Electrical Steel
210 GOES MMI®
205
200 October 2015
195 201
190 November
185 176
Down 12.4%
Index Value

180
175
December 2015
TBD
170
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2014 2015

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM. Learn how to subscribe - click here!

Our forecast and research team spends the bulk of its time studying price activity as it relates
to commodities in general, industrial metals in particular and the underlying price behavior of
each metal.

For those that subscribe to our monthly forecast report or downloaded our annual report
nearly all of the commentary and supporting data tell one story: metals markets remain
bearish.

The why behind the call appears in many of our writings both on the site and within our
forecast reports.

Why Should GOES Be Any Different?


Simply put, grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) does not behave like the rest of the base
metals, or steel products for that matter, because it operates under quite a different set of
market conditions. Some of those conditions appear obvious and others less so.

The Regulatory Atmosphere


Besides looking more like an oligopoly vs. an open market with ample opportunity for price
discovery, GOES markets have seen dramatic changes as a result of energy efficiency
standards and regulations. These regulatory changes have single-handedly altered the GOES
pricing landscape.

DuPont has an excellent information page on the regulatory changes enacted since 2007 and
continuing through 2016 impacting this market. Suffice it to say, the 2016 regulations add
additional energy efficiency requirements for 3-phase low-voltage, general-purpose (LVGP)
and medium-voltage (MV) transformers. These regulations come on top of energy efficiency
requirements for LVGP transformers and MV transformers.

The Bottom Line


To meet these new energy requirements, manufacturers needed to upgrade the materials used
to make this type of equipment.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE AND THE ACTUAL GOES M3 PRICE.
MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. 15 of 16

Record Platinum, Palladium ETF Outflows


100
Global Precious

Jan 2012 Baseline = 100


95
Metals MMI®

90

October 2015
85
74
November
80
77
Up 4.1%
Index Value

75
December 2015
TBD
70
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
2014 2015

© MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM. Learn how to subscribe - click here!

PGM prices rebounded this month from being hit by the Volkswagen scandal last month,
buoying the entire Global Precious Metals MMI for November. Our precious metal index hit 77
this month, a 4.1% increase from last month.

It helps that the rest of the complex did well across the board, with every single price point for
platinum, palladium, and also gold and silver, appreciating across US, EU and Asian markets.

PGM Time
The US platinum price on the MetalMiner IndX ticked up considerably more than the US
palladium price, almost-but-not quite proving our point from last month that “ultimately, in
MetalMiner’s view, based on how investors reacted to the [VW] news, we’ll likely see both
platinum and palladium trending in opposite directions in the short-to-medium term.”

Speaking of those investors, some big news in the ETF world: apparently platinum and
palladium ETF outflows have approached some record lows. According to Reuters, platinum
ETF holdings tracked by that news giant dropped 160,000 ounces near the end of October.
Reserves of palladium ETFs were down 207,000 ounces over that same month, resulting in
ETF holdings of both metals hitting their lowest since early 2014.

EconoTimes reported that just a few days ago, platinum and palladium ETF holdings were
reduced by a further 31,600 ounces.

Interestingly, net-long positions, as the source reports, had risen to 13,500 contracts in that
last week of October, which is itself the highest level since the beginning of July – so are we
seeing investors taking a longer-term, slightly more bullish outlook? Remains to be seen.

In Economic Driver News: Fed Interest Rate Rise


The Federal Reserve recently announced that they would not raise interest rates, but it’s not
ruling out a rate hike before the end of the year.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE AND ALL GLOBAL PRECIOUS PRICES.
The Global Precious Metals MMI® collects and weights 14 global precious metal price points
to provide a unique view into precious metal price trends over a 30-day period. For more
information, please drop us a note at: info@agmetalminer.com.
MMI | © MetalMinerTM. All rights reserved. 16 of 16

***

A Note on MetalMiner's Price Forecasting

MetalMiner forecasting helps companies:

- Improve purchase timing


- Gauge expected volatility
- Create more competitive bids to customers
- Develop risk mitigation strategies

Our monthly forecasts include: HRC, CRC, HDG, steel plate, aluminum, copper, nickel, tin,
lead and zinc.
Download a sample report of our Metal Buying Outlook.

Questions? info@agmetalminer.com
Source: MetalMiner IndXSM. Learn how to subscribe - click here!

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