Supermercados Pomodori: el estudio piloto

INALDE Business School # AD-I-190

Copyright © Abril 2011, INALDE Business School.

Caso elaborado por los profesores Ignacio Osuna Soto del área de Dirección de Marketing de INALDE Business School y
Miguel Angel Canela del área de Análisis de Decisiones del IESE Business School, como base de discusión y no como
ilustración de la gestión, adecuada o inadecuada, de una situación determinada.

Los nombres de los protagonistas del caso, así como de la empresa fueron cambiados para preservar su confidencialidad.

Prohibida la reproducción, total o parcial, en cualquier medio sin autorización escrita de INALDE.
DE Business School y
scusión y no como

ar su confidencialidad.
Los datos contenidos a continuación pertenecen a una cohorte de clientes que estaban activos (visitaron la tienda e hicieron al menos
semanas antes que la primera semana de observación. El estudio piloto buscó entender qué pasaba con estos clientes durante dos añ
nuevos clientes captados (las nuevas altas), no están incluidas en estos datos.

Ventas Tienda Semana Visitas Promociones Semana del Mes

17626.2 1 1 677 944 1
15793.5 1 2 632 1206 2
15620.6 1 3 662 1810 3
16766.6 1 4 674 1519 4
17066.4 1 5 632 870 1
14648.7 1 6 578 1164 2
19072.1 1 7 662 916 3
13217.6 1 8 504 656 4
12885.8 1 9 507 780 5
16058.2 1 10 587 977 1
16140.7 1 11 659 504 2
14434.9 1 12 658 297 3
15010.9 1 13 628 265 4
16307.7 1 14 642 609 1
14285.1 1 15 618 401 2
14395.1 1 16 629 316 3
14605.8 1 17 630 352 4
15574.9 1 18 627 100 1
12325.0 1 19 577 137 2
11974.1 1 20 548 285 3
15242.0 1 21 662 765 4
14684.9 1 22 640 433 1
8068.5 1 23 356 523 2
14836.6 1 24 640 631 3
13327.6 1 25 589 901 4
11977.0 1 26 481 874 5
16571.6 1 27 631 1261 1
13332.6 1 28 563 1305 2
14904.0 1 29 611 1281 3
15214.8 1 30 594 1169 4
16267.7 1 31 612 692 1
12559.6 1 32 498 983 2
14567.8 1 33 593 1544 3
13635.2 1 34 545 997 4
13315.4 1 35 538 753 1
12290.4 1 36 489 744 2
10783.8 1 37 490 732 3
10178.5 1 38 503 982 4
9203.7 1 39 437 622 5
7191.1 1 40 328 549 1
4696.4 1 41 258 261 2
7328.7 1 42 317 581 3
9945.5 1 43 371 538 4
13756.2 1 44 474 783 1
12305.5 1 45 526 595 2
13048.1 1 46 544 953 3
15549.0 1 47 564 893 4
13186.1 1 48 538 1060 1
14448.9 1 49 542 890 2
11180.4 1 50 438 1196 3
14112.0 1 51 568 844 4
13526.9 1 52 524 1137 5
15024.4 1 53 567 1147 1
12467.7 1 54 472 1203 2
13696.5 1 55 536 1169 3
13947.6 1 56 558 1389 4
15266.0 1 57 545 1237 1
14041.4 1 58 468 1287 2
16503.8 1 59 548 1424 3
12438.3 1 60 434 1038 4
12053.0 1 61 438 687 5
14177.6 1 62 490 1088 1
14440.7 1 63 560 1027 2
14178.2 1 64 544 1180 3
13722.2 1 65 535 1082 4
13810.5 1 66 533 900 1
14238.8 1 67 550 1175 2
13532.6 1 68 521 1209 3
15383.8 1 69 536 1022 4
13927.0 1 70 537 535 1
13707.2 1 71 551 939 2
12149.6 1 72 473 1040 3
13097.5 1 73 507 1329 4
7710.6 1 74 316 808 1
15440.7 1 75 542 1270 2
13033.5 1 76 534 1087 3
12626.2 1 77 498 740 4
11795.1 1 78 444 954 5
14944.6 1 79 531 1464 1
11455.2 1 80 460 1275 2
15189.1 1 81 529 1723 3
12557.5 1 82 507 1166 4
12009.9 1 83 438 1207 1
13506.3 1 84 526 1203 2
13007.3 1 85 490 1038 3
11673.3 1 86 478 1171 4
12623.4 1 87 478 842 1
11495.7 1 88 458 784 2
10089.1 1 89 447 855 3
8706.2 1 90 418 841 4
8537.0 1 91 395 858 5
7652.0 1 92 317 602 1
5473.5 1 93 276 523 2
7028.9 1 94 292 613 3
7928.2 1 95 334 847 4
12024.5 1 96 451 1189 1
11909.1 1 97 473 996 2
12865.2 1 98 528 1133 3
12283.0 1 99 510 1355 4
13343.7 1 100 517 1266 5
12335.9 1 101 527 878 1
11968.3 1 102 476 882 2
11675.0 1 103 477 587 3
13687.2 1 104 538 1080 4
52905.5 2 1 2319 3792 1
51644.6 2 2 2317 4690 2
52071.6 2 3 2195 6544 3
54447.5 2 4 2314 5343 4
64068.8 2 5 2399 3771 1
59876.9 2 6 2233 4517 2
69895.9 2 7 2441 3650 3
60051.9 2 8 1711 3303 4
61959.2 2 9 2232 3573 5
47154.6 2 10 1991 4226 1
50170.4 2 11 2272 2665 2
48574.1 2 12 2273 3197 3
50788.7 2 13 2325 917 4
51627.0 2 14 2345 3302 1
48294.3 2 15 2295 2197 2
47351.9 2 16 2229 1721 3
48819.3 2 17 2240 3164 4
55560.3 2 18 2615 1984 1
48647.8 2 19 2349 2215 2
51599.4 2 20 2512 2912 3
53709.1 2 21 2373 4591 4
54246.5 2 22 2357 3662 1
64191.5 2 23 2636 3832 2
51087.6 2 24 2349 2479 3
48962.1 2 25 2247 3473 4
51351.4 2 26 2228 3911 5
57130.6 2 27 2545 3996 1
52740.0 2 28 2467 4830 2
52597.9 2 29 2365 4220 3
58539.7 2 30 2513 4341 4
54435.7 2 31 2428 2906 1
54135.1 2 32 2390 4281 2
57079.2 2 33 2449 5855 3
62460.6 2 34 2509 4396 4
61462.3 2 35 2428 2862 1
58443.0 2 36 2387 3120 2
59508.4 2 37 2426 2995 3
59858.5 2 38 2404 4315 4
63711.9 2 39 2476 3248 5
59679.3 2 40 2451 3161 1
63261.5 2 41 2438 2077 2
60835.2 2 42 2469 2938 3
57345.8 2 43 2387 2971 4
58260.3 2 44 2401 3565 1
52868.1 2 45 2213 2270 2
55386.6 2 46 2412 4353 3
50436.0 2 47 2260 3486 4
53310.2 2 48 2257 4170 1
51111.4 2 49 2251 3884 2
48227.9 2 50 2142 5031 3
46837.8 2 51 2074 3275 4
44312.3 2 52 2022 4676 5
46749.1 2 53 2095 4224 1
44382.1 2 54 2007 4912 2
44095.4 2 55 1886 4673 3
46480.4 2 56 1976 5565 4
57809.6 2 57 2236 4638 1
51642.4 2 58 2153 4979 2
61442.6 2 59 2142 5494 3
60251.4 2 60 1700 3853 4
55085.4 2 61 2110 3038 5
48631.3 2 62 1971 3959 1
43839.2 2 63 2088 3569 2
43129.6 2 64 2127 4023 3
43340.8 2 65 2118 3746 4
44306.3 2 66 2135 3605 1
45362.5 2 67 2064 4536 2
46297.5 2 68 2077 4427 3
46741.0 2 69 2119 3488 4
48147.4 2 70 2127 2379 1
34591.1 2 71 1563 3131 2
50238.7 2 72 2183 4424 3
50060.8 2 73 2165 5356 4
66224.7 2 74 2562 4536 1
50242.7 2 75 2179 4712 2
48090.5 2 76 2138 4241 3
47299.4 2 77 2039 2577 4
46439.0 2 78 1927 3632 5
50723.7 2 79 2186 5152 1
45710.7 2 80 2064 5408 2
50047.1 2 81 2187 5243 3
49479.1 2 82 2100 4187 4
51327.8 2 83 2232 4495 1
47475.0 2 84 2157 4749 2
49879.1 2 85 2182 3947 3
58533.6 2 86 2273 4371 4
53762.0 2 87 2164 2885 1
54777.8 2 88 2149 3528 2
53686.4 2 89 2137 3761 3
56884.3 2 90 2146 4445 4
48214.2 2 91 1862 3970 5
56962.8 2 92 2184 3345 1
55688.5 2 93 2172 3838 2
55099.2 2 94 2189 4010 3
55698.4 2 95 2295 5260 4
53890.0 2 96 2206 4198 1
45072.1 2 97 1895 3592 2
46963.2 2 98 2048 4264 3
48195.7 2 99 2026 5250 4
50429.4 2 100 2005 4692 5
46045.5 2 101 1968 3947 1
44023.6 2 102 1893 3567 2
44234.8 2 103 1948 2477 3
49457.5 2 104 2064 4202 4
ctivos (visitaron la tienda e hicieron al menos una compra) dos
qué pasaba con estos clientes durante dos años y por eso, los

Navidad Verano Festivo

0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
1 0 1
1 0 1
1 0 0
1 0 1
1 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 1 0
0 1 1
0 1 0
0 1 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
1 0 0
1 0 1
1 0 0
1 0 1
1 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 1 0
0 1 0
0 1 1
0 1 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
1 0 1
1 0 1
1 0 0
1 0 1
1 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 1 0
0 1 1
0 1 0
0 1 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
1 0 0
1 0 1
1 0 0
1 0 1
1 0 1
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 1 0
0 1 0
0 1 1
0 1 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 0 0
 Ventas Tienda Semana Visitas Promociones Semana del Mes Navidad Verano Festivo
17626.2 1 1 677 944 1 0 0 0
15793.5 1 2 632 1206 2 0 0 0
15620.6 1 3 662 1810 3 0 0 0
16766.6 1 4 674 1519 4 0 0 0
17066.4 1 5 632 870 1 1 0 1
14648.7 1 6 578 1164 2 1 0 1
19072.1 1 7 662 916 3 1 0 0
13217.6 1 8 504 656 4 1 0 1
12885.8 1 9 507 780 5 1 0 1
16058.2 1 10 587 977 1 0 0 1
16140.7 1 11 659 504 2 0 0 0
14434.9 1 12 658 297 3 0 0 0
15010.9 1 13 628 265 4 0 0 0
16307.7 1 14 642 609 1 0 0 0
14285.1 1 15 618 401 2 0 0 0
14395.1 1 16 629 316 3 0 0 0
14605.8 1 17 630 352 4 0 0 0
15574.9 1 18 627 100 1 0 0 0
12325.0 1 19 577 137 2 0 0 0
11974.1 1 20 548 285 3 0 0 0
15242.0 1 21 662 765 4 0 0 0
14684.9 1 22 640 433 1 0 0 0
8068.5 1 23 356 523 2 0 0 1
14836.6 1 24 640 631 3 0 0 0
13327.6 1 25 589 901 4 0 0 0
11977.0 1 26 481 874 5 0 0 1
16571.6 1 27 631 1261 1 0 0 0
13332.6 1 28 563 1305 2 0 0 0
14904.0 1 29 611 1281 3 0 0 0
15214.8 1 30 594 1169 4 0 0 0
16267.7 1 31 612 692 1 0 0 0
12559.6 1 32 498 983 2 0 0 0
14567.8 1 33 593 1544 3 0 0 0
13635.2 1 34 545 997 4 0 0 0
13315.4 1 35 538 753 1 0 0 0
12290.4 1 36 489 744 2 0 0 0
10783.8 1 37 490 732 3 0 0 0
10178.5 1 38 503 982 4 0 0 0
9203.7 1 39 437 622 5 0 0 0
7191.1 1 40 328 549 1 0 1 0
4696.4 1 41 258 261 2 0 1 1
7328.7 1 42 317 581 3 0 1 0
9945.5 1 43 371 538 4 0 1 0
13756.2 1 44 474 783 1 0 0 0
12305.5 1 45 526 595 2 0 0 0
13048.1 1 46 544 953 3 0 0 0
15549.0 1 47 564 893 4 0 0 0
13186.1 1 48 538 1060 1 0 0 0
14448.9 1 49 542 890 2 0 0 0
11180.4 1 50 438 1196 3 0 0 1
14112.0 1 51 568 844 4 0 0 0
13526.9 1 52 524 1137 5 0 0 0
15024.4 1 53 567 1147 1 0 0 0
12467.7 1 54 472 1203 2 0 0 0
13696.5 1 55 536 1169 3 0 0 0
13947.6 1 56 558 1389 4 0 0 0
15266.0 1 57 545 1237 1 1 0 0
14041.4 1 58 468 1287 2 1 0 1
16503.8 1 59 548 1424 3 1 0 0
12438.3 1 60 434 1038 4 1 0 1
12053.0 1 61 438 687 5 1 0 1
14177.6 1 62 490 1088 1 0 0 1
14440.7 1 63 560 1027 2 0 0 0
14178.2 1 64 544 1180 3 0 0 0
13722.2 1 65 535 1082 4 0 0 0
13810.5 1 66 533 900 1 0 0 0
14238.8 1 67 550 1175 2 0 0 0
13532.6 1 68 521 1209 3 0 0 0
15383.8 1 69 536 1022 4 0 0 0
13927.0 1 70 537 535 1 0 0 0
13707.2 1 71 551 939 2 0 0 0
12149.6 1 72 473 1040 3 0 0 0
13097.5 1 73 507 1329 4 0 0 0
7710.6 1 74 316 808 1 0 0 1
15440.7 1 75 542 1270 2 0 0 0
13033.5 1 76 534 1087 3 0 0 0
12626.2 1 77 498 740 4 0 0 0
11795.1 1 78 444 954 5 0 0 1
14944.6 1 79 531 1464 1 0 0 0
11455.2 1 80 460 1275 2 0 0 0
15189.1 1 81 529 1723 3 0 0 0
12557.5 1 82 507 1166 4 0 0 0
12009.9 1 83 438 1207 1 0 0 0
13506.3 1 84 526 1203 2 0 0 0
13007.3 1 85 490 1038 3 0 0 0
11673.3 1 86 478 1171 4 0 0 0
12623.4 1 87 478 842 1 0 0 0
11495.7 1 88 458 784 2 0 0 0
10089.1 1 89 447 855 3 0 0 0
8706.2 1 90 418 841 4 0 0 0
8537.0 1 91 395 858 5 0 0 0
7652.0 1 92 317 602 1 0 1 0
5473.5 1 93 276 523 2 0 1 0
7028.9 1 94 292 613 3 0 1 1
7928.2 1 95 334 847 4 0 1 0
12024.5 1 96 451 1189 1 0 0 0
11909.1 1 97 473 996 2 0 0 0
12865.2 1 98 528 1133 3 0 0 0
12283.0 1 99 510 1355 4 0 0 0
13343.7 1 100 517 1266 5 0 0 0
12335.9 1 101 527 878 1 0 0 0
11968.3 1 102 476 882 2 0 0 1
11675.0 1 103 477 587 3 0 0 0
13687.2 1 104 538 1080 4 0 0 0
Ventas Semana Anterior Promociones semana Anterior Escala Logarítmica Ventas Acumulado

17626.2 944 -11% -11%

15793.5 1206 -1% -12%
15620.6 1810 7% -5%
16766.6 1519 2% -3%
17066.4 870 -15% -19%
14648.7 1164 26% 8%
19072.1 916 -37% -29%
13217.6 656 -3% -31%
12885.8 780 22% -9%
16058.2 977 1% -9%
16140.7 504 -11% -20%
14434.9 297 4% -16%
15010.9 265 8% -8%
16307.7 609 -13% -21%
14285.1 401 1% -20%
14395.1 316 1% -19%
14605.8 352 6% -12%
15574.9 100 -23% -36%
12325.0 137 -3% -39%
11974.1 285 24% -15%
15242.0 765 -4% -18%
14684.9 433 -60% -78%
8068.5 523 61% -17%
14836.6 631 -11% -28%
13327.6 901 -11% -39%
11977.0 874 32% -6%
16571.6 1261 -22% -28%
13332.6 1305 11% -17%
14904.0 1281 2% -15%
15214.8 1169 7% -8%
16267.7 692 -26% -34%
12559.6 983 15% -19%
14567.8 1544 -7% -26%
13635.2 997 -2% -28%
13315.4 753 -8% -36%
12290.4 744 -13% -49%
10783.8 732 -6% -55%
10178.5 982 -10% -65%
9203.7 622 -25% -90%
7191.1 549 -43% -132%
4696.4 261 44% -88%
7328.7 581 31% -57%
9945.5 538 32% -25%
13756.2 783 -11% -36%
12305.5 595 6% -30%
13048.1 953 18% -13%
15549.0 893 -16% -29%
13186.1 1060 9% -20%
14448.9 890 -26% -46%
11180.4 1196 23% -22%
14112.0 844 -4% -26%
13526.9 1137 10% -16%
15024.4 1147 -19% -35%
12467.7 1203 9% -25%
13696.5 1169 2% -23%
13947.6 1389 9% -14%
15266.0 1237 -8% -23%
14041.4 1287 16% -7%
16503.8 1424 -28% -35%
12438.3 1038 -3% -38%
12053.0 687 16% -22%
14177.6 1088 2% -20%
14440.7 1027 -2% -22%
14178.2 1180 -3% -25%
13722.2 1082 1% -24%
13810.5 900 3% -21%
14238.8 1175 -5% -26%
13532.6 1209 13% -14%
15383.8 1022 -10% -24%
13927.0 535 -2% -25%
13707.2 939 -12% -37%
12149.6 1040 8% -30%
13097.5 1329 -53% -83%
7710.6 808 69% -13%
15440.7 1270 -17% -30%
13033.5 1087 -3% -33%
12626.2 740 -7% -40%
11795.1 954 24% -17%
14944.6 1464 -27% -43%
11455.2 1275 28% -15%
15189.1 1723 -19% -34%
12557.5 1166 -4% -38%
12009.9 1207 12% -27%
13506.3 1203 -4% -30%
13007.3 1038 -11% -41%
11673.3 1171 8% -33%
12623.4 842 -9% -43%
11495.7 784 -13% -56%
10089.1 855 -15% -71%
8706.2 841 -2% -72%
8537.0 858 -11% -83%
7652.0 602 -34% -117%
5473.5 523 25% -92%
7028.9 613 12% -80%
7928.2 847 42% -38%
12024.5 1189 -1% -39%
11909.1 996 8% -31%
12865.2 1133 -5% -36%
12283.0 1355 8% -28%
13343.7 1266 -8% -36%
12335.9 878 -3% -39%
11968.3 882 -2% -41%
11675.0 587 16% -25%
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.772564
R Square 0.596855
Adjusted R Square 0.567149
Standard Error 1707.581
Observations 103

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 7 4.1E+08 58586152 20.09243 2.65E-16
Residual 95 2.77E+08 2915832
Total 102 6.87E+08

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 9899.895 1448.206 6.835969
Visitas 1.746631 0.693152 2.519838
Semana del Mes -245.089 136.2869 -1.79833
Navidad 2351.683 690.9602 3.4035
Verano -3902.44 883.5598 -4.41673
Festivo -2083.11 522.5045 -3.98677
Ventas Semana Anterior 0.283898 0.092732 3.061497
Promociones semana Anterior -1.25088 0.706548 -1.77041
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
7.79E-10 7024.841 12774.95 7024.841
0.013409 0.37055 3.122712 0.37055
0.0753 -515.653 25.47443 -515.653
0.000976 979.9534 3723.412 979.9534
2.65E-05 -5656.53 -2148.35 -5656.53
0.000131 -3120.41 -1045.8 -3120.41
0.002864 0.099802 0.467994 0.099802
0.079867 -2.65355 0.151796 -2.65355

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted YResiduals

1 15339.37 454.1297
2 15301.22 319.3843
3 13743.24 3023.36
4 14302.88 2763.525
5 15468.23 -819.528
6 15818.94 3253.16
7 14602.64 -1385.04
8 13237.27 -351.475
9 11960.73 4097.471
10 13626.8 2513.896
11 13635.25 799.6508
12 13108.93 1901.974
13 14648.59 1659.111
14 13978.06 307.0432
15 13270.47 1124.626
16 13225.82 1379.983
17 13535.72 2039.18
18 13945.6 -1620.6
19 12990.09 -1015.99
20 13298.64 1943.365
21 13781.35 903.5491
22 11867.49 -3799.01
23 11903.17 2933.432
24 13916.03 -588.432
25 10774.54 1202.461
26 14164.29 2407.312
27 14816.36 -1483.76
28 13554.77 1349.234
29 13590.19 1624.608
30 13720.65 2547.049
31 14879.42 -2319.82
32 14197.46 370.3406
33 12865.34 769.8558
34 13593.9 -278.501
35 13547.52 -1257.12
36 13001.73 -2217.93
37 12780.59 -2602.09
38 11422.15 -2218.41
39 8546.142 -1355.03
40 5234.85 -538.45
41 7283.797 44.85296
42 7310.612 2634.928
43 13172.97 583.2342
44 13374.88 -1069.38
45 13578.4 -530.303
46 12991.52 2557.476
47 14803.53 -1617.43
48 13381.8 1067.104
49 12159.23 -978.827
50 12071.74 2040.261
51 13611 -84.0976
52 14076.2 948.1951
53 14341.56 -1873.86
54 13241.19 455.3109
55 13771.74 175.8573
56 16389.3 -1123.3
57 14712.86 -671.461
58 16379.96 123.8404
59 13905.27 -1466.97
60 12375.76 -322.76
61 12034.51 2143.094
62 13867.55 573.1546
63 14040.69 137.5121
64 13358.52 363.679
65 13769.03 41.46939
66 14256.99 -18.193
67 13848.89 -316.291
68 13034.16 2349.637
 69 13678.29 248.7118
70 14334.43 -627.233
71 13698 -1548.4
72 13389.15 -291.646
73 11038.92 -3328.35
74 12806.24 2634.455
75 13858.19 -824.686
76 12552.53 73.67339
77 10916.53 878.5655
78 14367.14 577.4572
79 14048.13 -2592.93
80 13831.31 1357.787
81 13113 -555.504
82 13869.52 -1859.62
83 13410.69 95.60821
84 13307.24 -299.937
85 13359.18 -1685.88
86 12974.72 -351.319
87 13309.6 -1813.9
88 12940.92 -2851.82
89 12183.23 -3477.07
90 11592.73 -3055.73
91 8154.22 -502.18
92 7840.133 -2366.59
93 5149.483 1879.447
94 7725.203 203.0266
95 12922.87 -898.366
96 13075.8 -1166.7
97 13278.66 -413.457
98 13521.38 -1238.38
99 12677.86 665.8358
100 13392.99 -1057.09
101 11271.01 697.2919
102 12484.4 -809.403
103 13386.14 301.0551
Upper 95.0%
12774.95
3.122712
25.47443
3723.412
-2148.35
-1045.8
0.467994
0.151796
 Ventas Tienda Semana Promociones Visitas Semana del Mes Navidad Verano Festivo
52905.5 2 1 3792 2319 1 0 0 0
51644.6 2 2 4690 2317 2 0 0 0
52071.6 2 3 6544 2195 3 0 0 0
54447.5 2 4 5343 2314 4 0 0 0
64068.8 2 5 3771 2399 1 1 0 1
59876.9 2 6 4517 2233 2 1 0 1
69895.9 2 7 3650 2441 3 1 0 0
60051.9 2 8 3303 1711 4 1 0 1
61959.2 2 9 3573 2232 5 1 0 1
47154.6 2 10 4226 1991 1 0 0 1
50170.4 2 11 2665 2272 2 0 0 0
48574.1 2 12 3197 2273 3 0 0 0
50788.7 2 13 917 2325 4 0 0 0
51627.0 2 14 3302 2345 1 0 0 0
48294.3 2 15 2197 2295 2 0 0 0
47351.9 2 16 1721 2229 3 0 0 0
48819.3 2 17 3164 2240 4 0 0 0
55560.3 2 18 1984 2615 1 0 0 0
48647.8 2 19 2215 2349 2 0 0 0
51599.4 2 20 2912 2512 3 0 0 0
53709.1 2 21 4591 2373 4 0 0 0
54246.5 2 22 3662 2357 1 0 0 0
64191.5 2 23 3832 2636 2 0 0 1
51087.6 2 24 2479 2349 3 0 0 0
48962.1 2 25 3473 2247 4 0 0 0
51351.4 2 26 3911 2228 5 0 0 1
57130.6 2 27 3996 2545 1 0 0 0
52740.0 2 28 4830 2467 2 0 0 0
52597.9 2 29 4220 2365 3 0 0 0
58539.7 2 30 4341 2513 4 0 0 0
54435.7 2 31 2906 2428 1 0 0 0
54135.1 2 32 4281 2390 2 0 0 0
57079.2 2 33 5855 2449 3 0 0 0
62460.6 2 34 4396 2509 4 0 0 0
61462.3 2 35 2862 2428 1 0 0 0
58443.0 2 36 3120 2387 2 0 0 0
59508.4 2 37 2995 2426 3 0 0 0
59858.5 2 38 4315 2404 4 0 0 0
63711.9 2 39 3248 2476 5 0 0 0
59679.3 2 40 3161 2451 1 0 1 0
63261.5 2 41 2077 2438 2 0 1 1
60835.2 2 42 2938 2469 3 0 1 0
57345.8 2 43 2971 2387 4 0 1 0
58260.3 2 44 3565 2401 1 0 0 0
52868.1 2 45 2270 2213 2 0 0 0
55386.6 2 46 4353 2412 3 0 0 0
50436.0 2 47 3486 2260 4 0 0 0
53310.2 2 48 4170 2257 1 0 0 0
51111.4 2 49 3884 2251 2 0 0 0
48227.9 2 50 5031 2142 3 0 0 1
46837.8 2 51 3275 2074 4 0 0 0
44312.3 2 52 4676 2022 5 0 0 0
46749.1 2 53 4224 2095 1 0 0 0
44382.1 2 54 4912 2007 2 0 0 0
44095.4 2 55 4673 1886 3 0 0 0
46480.4 2 56 5565 1976 4 0 0 0
57809.6 2 57 4638 2236 1 1 0 0
51642.4 2 58 4979 2153 2 1 0 1
61442.6 2 59 5494 2142 3 1 0 0
60251.4 2 60 3853 1700 4 1 0 1
55085.4 2 61 3038 2110 5 1 0 1
48631.3 2 62 3959 1971 1 0 0 1
43839.2 2 63 3569 2088 2 0 0 0
43129.6 2 64 4023 2127 3 0 0 0
43340.8 2 65 3746 2118 4 0 0 0
44306.3 2 66 3605 2135 1 0 0 0
45362.5 2 67 4536 2064 2 0 0 0
46297.5 2 68 4427 2077 3 0 0 0
46741.0 2 69 3488 2119 4 0 0 0
48147.4 2 70 2379 2127 1 0 0 0
34591.1 2 71 3131 1563 2 0 0 0
50238.7 2 72 4424 2183 3 0 0 0
50060.8 2 73 5356 2165 4 0 0 0
66224.7 2 74 4536 2562 1 0 0 1
50242.7 2 75 4712 2179 2 0 0 0
48090.5 2 76 4241 2138 3 0 0 0
47299.4 2 77 2577 2039 4 0 0 0
46439.0 2 78 3632 1927 5 0 0 1
50723.7 2 79 5152 2186 1 0 0 0
45710.7 2 80 5408 2064 2 0 0 0
50047.1 2 81 5243 2187 3 0 0 0
49479.1 2 82 4187 2100 4 0 0 0
51327.8 2 83 4495 2232 1 0 0 0
47475.0 2 84 4749 2157 2 0 0 0
49879.1 2 85 3947 2182 3 0 0 0
58533.6 2 86 4371 2273 4 0 0 0
53762.0 2 87 2885 2164 1 0 0 0
54777.8 2 88 3528 2149 2 0 0 0
53686.4 2 89 3761 2137 3 0 0 0
56884.3 2 90 4445 2146 4 0 0 0
48214.2 2 91 3970 1862 5 0 0 0
56962.8 2 92 3345 2184 1 0 1 0
55688.5 2 93 3838 2172 2 0 1 0
55099.2 2 94 4010 2189 3 0 1 1
55698.4 2 95 5260 2295 4 0 1 0
53890.0 2 96 4198 2206 1 0 0 0
45072.1 2 97 3592 1895 2 0 0 0
46963.2 2 98 4264 2048 3 0 0 0
48195.7 2 99 5250 2026 4 0 0 0
50429.4 2 100 4692 2005 5 0 0 0
46045.5 2 101 3947 1968 1 0 0 0
44023.6 2 102 3567 1893 2 0 0 1
44234.8 2 103 2477 1948 3 0 0 0
49457.5 2 104 4202 2064 4 0 0 0
Ventas Semana Anterior Promociones semana Anterior Escala Logarítmica Ventas Acumulado

52905.5 3792 -2% -2%

51644.6 4690 1% -2%
52071.6 6544 4% 3%
54447.5 5343 16% 19%
64068.8 3771 -7% 12%
59876.9 4517 15% 28%
69895.9 3650 -15% 13%
60051.9 3303 3% 16%
61959.2 3573 -27% -12%
47154.6 4226 6% -5%
50170.4 2665 -3% -9%
48574.1 3197 4% -4%
50788.7 917 2% -2%
51627.0 3302 -7% -9%
48294.3 2197 -2% -11%
47351.9 1721 3% -8%
48819.3 3164 13% 5%
55560.3 1984 -13% -8%
48647.8 2215 6% -2%
51599.4 2912 4% 2%
53709.1 4591 1% 3%
54246.5 3662 17% 19%
64191.5 3832 -23% -3%
51087.6 2479 -4% -8%
48962.1 3473 5% -3%
51351.4 3911 11% 8%
57130.6 3996 -8% 0%
52740.0 4830 0% -1%
52597.9 4220 11% 10%
58539.7 4341 -7% 3%
54435.7 2906 -1% 2%
54135.1 4281 5% 8%
57079.2 5855 9% 17%
62460.6 4396 -2% 15%
61462.3 2862 -5% 10%
58443.0 3120 2% 12%
59508.4 2995 1% 12%
59858.5 4315 6% 19%
63711.9 3248 -7% 12%
59679.3 3161 6% 18%
63261.5 2077 -4% 14%
60835.2 2938 -6% 8%
57345.8 2971 2% 10%
58260.3 3565 -10% 0%
52868.1 2270 5% 5%
55386.6 4353 -9% -5%
50436.0 3486 6% 1%
53310.2 4170 -4% -3%
51111.4 3884 -6% -9%
48227.9 5031 -3% -12%
46837.8 3275 -6% -18%
44312.3 4676 5% -12%
46749.1 4224 -5% -18%
44382.1 4912 -1% -18%
44095.4 4673 5% -13%
46480.4 5565 22% 9%
57809.6 4638 -11% -2%
51642.4 4979 17% 15%
61442.6 5494 -2% 13%
60251.4 3853 -9% 4%
55085.4 3038 -12% -8%
48631.3 3959 -10% -19%
43839.2 3569 -2% -20%
43129.6 4023 0% -20%
43340.8 3746 2% -18%
44306.3 3605 2% -15%
45362.5 4536 2% -13%
46297.5 4427 1% -12%
46741.0 3488 3% -9%
48147.4 2379 -33% -42%
34591.1 3131 37% -5%
50238.7 4424 0% -6%
50060.8 5356 28% 22%
66224.7 4536 -28% -5%
50242.7 4712 -4% -10%
48090.5 4241 -2% -11%
47299.4 2577 -2% -13%
46439.0 3632 9% -4%
50723.7 5152 -10% -15%
45710.7 5408 9% -6%
50047.1 5243 -1% -7%
49479.1 4187 4% -3%
51327.8 4495 -8% -11%
47475.0 4749 5% -6%
49879.1 3947 16% 10%
58533.6 4371 -9% 2%
53762.0 2885 2% 3%
54777.8 3528 -2% 1%
53686.4 3761 6% 7%
56884.3 4445 -17% -9%
48214.2 3970 17% 7%
56962.8 3345 -2% 5%
55688.5 3838 -1% 4%
55099.2 4010 1% 5%
55698.4 5260 -3% 2%
53890.0 4198 -18% -16%
45072.1 3592 4% -12%
46963.2 4264 3% -9%
48195.7 5250 5% -5%
50429.4 4692 -9% -14%
46045.5 3947 -4% -18%
44023.6 3567 0% -18%
44234.8 2477 11% -7%
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.8828498467
R Square 0.7794238519
Adjusted R Square 0.7631708725
Standard Error 3000.5002804
Observations 103

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 7 3022220117.04 431745731 47.95575234 1.837173E-28
Residual 95 855285183.61 9003001.933
Total 102 3877505300.65

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept -10349.39344 4388.82297491 -2.35812506 0.0204172907 -19062.30866
Visitas 19.478125042 1.6434816862 11.8517445 1.979735E-20 16.215401376
Semana del Mes 372.68771161 239.523164693 1.555956862 0.1230436106 -102.8258915
Navidad 7292.5214773 1234.03256713 5.90950488 5.34183E-08 4842.657085
Verano 3466.9318491 1182.8210826 2.931070388 0.0042313062 1118.7351079
Festivo 1216.7932792 933.591279058 1.303346878 0.1956062836 -636.6197444
Ventas Semana Anterior 0.2680815612 0.0571310893 4.692393655 9.054714E-06 0.1546620087
Promociones semana Anterior 0.8838530671 0.3208786814 2.754477372 0.0070455266 0.2468283428

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals

1 53061.35757 -1416.7575704
2 51513.390041 558.209959381
3 55957.109045 -1509.6090453
4 64579.428743 -510.62874317
5 62908.623801 -3031.7238008
6 65651.551534 4244.34846624
7 54941.609796 5110.29020396
8 62516.708752 -557.50875214
9 49789.160583 -2634.560583
10 51026.723924 -856.32392444
11 50847.675496 -2273.5754955
12 52275.496945 -1486.7969449
13 50125.504743 1501.49525665
14 51857.008541 -3562.7085406
15 49074.046941 -1722.1469414
16 48987.639905 -168.33990525
17 56842.65652 -1282.3565199
18 52798.354155 -4150.554155
19 54697.032515 -3097.6325154
20 53769.57597 -60.475969875
21 54389.423804 -142.92380364
22 60736.269213 3455.2307871
23 57118.267905 -6030.6679055
24 50795.419693 -1833.3196935
25 52323.558899 -972.15889895
26 56818.235329 312.364670835
27 57296.053757 -4556.0537565
28 55242.067269 -2644.1672693
29 57920.272726 619.427273615
30 56846.402204 -2410.7022043
31 54110.385286 24.7147140668
32 56766.995025 312.204974994
33 60488.813891 1971.78610898
34 57946.135116 3516.16488381
35 55896.763274 2546.23672638
36 56447.713296 3060.68670448
37 56567.014718 3291.4852819
38 59602.668836 4109.23116412
39 61181.850978 -1502.5509777
40 61360.155423 1901.34457742
41 61122.096775 -286.89677498
42 60008.129432 -2662.329432
43 54789.55155 3470.74844967
44 52270.521064 597.578936445
45 53929.216542 1457.3834575
46 53857.458598 -3421.4585983
47 50587.495902 2722.70409761
48 52218.390385 -1106.9903848
49 50842.516032 -2614.6160321
50 48914.664248 -2076.8642479
51 46349.783293 -2037.4832933
52 46842.173739 -93.073739226
53 45754.546009 -1372.4460091
54 43743.922445 351.47755457
55 45581.541544 898.858455787
56 58248.083857 -438.48385691
57 60438.698299 -8796.2982989
58 58028.414648 3414.18535236
59 54091.001615 6160.39838478
60 60679.978955 -5594.5789553
61 47083.997656 1547.30234398
62 47602.636189 -3763.4361892
63 47105.594432 -3975.9944319
64 47514.017635 -4173.2176348
65 46538.874152 -2232.5741518
66 45662.82445 -300.3244503
67 47394.742738 -1097.2427378
68 48739.827977 -1998.8279766
 69 47066.545984 1080.85401551
70 35850.408029 -1259.3080285
71 45329.996705 4908.70329501
72 50689.733218 -628.93321826
73 59297.338353 6927.36164678
74 54601.594926 -4358.8949261
75 50046.75814 -1956.2581401
76 47497.851542 -198.45154194
77 45222.971701 1216.02829865
78 48262.069572 2461.63042783
79 48750.531756 -3039.8317558
80 50401.402367 -354.3023666
81 50096.166325 -617.06632535
82 50463.59653 864.203469518
83 50143.253991 -2668.2539907
84 50194.528869 -315.42886855
85 52275.37068 6258.22931959
86 51729.057488 2032.94251237
87 49216.989689 5560.81031141
88 50196.574672 3489.82532832
89 50657.919057 6226.38094256
90 46960.672779 1253.52722056
91 52464.685895 4498.11410474
92 54396.566286 1291.93371447
93 56411.298631 -1312.0986308
94 57625.916581 -1927.5165812
95 52572.819274 1317.18072619
96 45464.359445 -392.2594448
97 45917.668931 1045.53106909
98 46962.756193 1232.94380698
99 48128.292927 2301.10707295
100 46022.475226 23.0247741903
101 44317.383547 -293.78354745
102 43666.676583 568.123416884
103 45392.045782 4065.4542178
 Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
-1636.478226 -19062.30866 -1636.478226
22.740848709 16.215401376 22.740848709
848.20131468 -102.8258915 848.20131468
9742.3858696 4842.657085 9742.3858696
5815.1285903 1118.7351079 5815.1285903
3070.2063028 -636.6197444 3070.2063028
0.3815011136 0.1546620087 0.3815011136
1.5208777914 0.2468283428 1.5208777914