Economic Impact Analysis ~ Proposed Cochrane Hill Gold Mine December 2019, ‘The Municipality ofthe District of St. Mary's have received the final report from Jozsa "Management & Economics forthe study on local economic impacts that may be possible asa result ofthe proposed gold mine at Cochrane Hill. The Municipality engaged the consultant as an arm’s length third party to complete the analysis. The Report was intended to be used In conjunction with the Environmental Impact Statement by the proponent (Atlantic Gld), the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency (CEAA) environmental approval documents and the Province of Nova Scotia Mining Permitting documents to assist Coun in developing a position on the proposed mine. ‘The Municipality acknowledges thatthe analysis is based on the original project description for ‘the proposed mine as submitted by Atlantic Gold to CEAA In September 2018 to initiate the ‘environmental approval process. Changing factors inthe interim could limit the extent to ‘hich the consultant’s economic modeling can be applied without more detailed information con the project.Economic Impact Analysis of the Proposed Cochrane Hill Gold Mine December 2019 Final Report Prepared For: Municipality of the District of St. Mary's ‘Submitted By: tn Jose, MA, MPR 1830 Vernon Steet Holfax, NS 83H 3N1 902-483-0664 sssimpatic.ca and JDM Associates Decewner 2019December 2019 1630 Vemon Street Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 3NI 902-483-0664 | e-mail: sidmjozsans.sympatico.ca Marvin MacDonald, CAO “Municipality ofthe District of St, Mary's 8296 Highway 87, PO. Box 296 Sherbrooke, NS. BO) 30 ‘marvin macdonald @ssint-marys.ca Re: Keonomie Impaet Analysis ofthe Proposed Cochrane Hill Gold Mine Mr. MacDonald: ‘The atached is ou final report describing the social and economic impacts of the proposed Cochrane Hill Gold Mine on the Municipality ofthe Distiet of St. Mary’s, ‘As you knows the proponent of the gold mine did not acknowledge or respond to any elements of our information request, Our analysis had to rely onthe very limited quantitative information contained inthe proponent’s Project Desription Summary of September 2018 and corporate reports describing company-wide gold mining financial indicators (eg. the ‘company-wide All In Sustaining Cost (AISC) per ounce of gold produced). "Notwithstanding, the findings are sufficiently accurate to help the Municipality establish a position regarding the development ofthe mine. Sincerely; Joi MuncevENT 8 ECONOMICS John ozs, MA, MPA, President InclEconomie pact naj, Propose Cochrane Hl Go ine a8 ‘TABLE OF CONTENTS ‘Sunnaey oF Foes, 1 Iwrrooucron. aoe 14 BlcxaRounora Ts Stu on a 13 Soom. vn 2 EMVROMENTAL SCAN, 234 PepuuTen... - 212 Pomurton iain sonore = 22. ABOURFOREE SA ne 7 vo 221 WomkAcroy I 222° LmuFowce Satis = 223. Bwrenencee LaouR once ev Oocion mm 224 EuPLoWeNT BY PLACE OF RESEENCE AND PLAGE OF WOR. 23. SOCALANDCOVMKNETY SM vo 21 CcoureoDue.unes Tews, AEM TRE 2:2 House Sueno OccunED DNELNGS BY Vue MO Gono. 233. Fara HOLEEHELD COMPOST cnn 23 EDUCATINBYHIGHESTLE nnn — PAS EovomtoweYFIDOF SHO nn 236 Eovca By Guten Postconons FELD OF STUDY roms 2A EOC SECTORS SEAN nnn ae 244 BeeREACED Loin FRc! Br NIST on 25 MATER WELBENG SCM. DEA HOURSHADNOME nner ener ” 252 Aven TixHovssvows hoon Grours. = 253. PrevuenceoF Low aren Tat owe (LMA), 2018, 3 SocioEconowic MFNCTS OF THEME... 7 31 MNeDeve.opuenr Econoutc PCTs vn 32 NINE OPERITIONECONDNC MFACT... 2 33. MNERECUMuTION ACTS, a 23 34 ENPLOYWENT PACTS FOR ST. MAS RESIDENT... vo 28 BAA MME DEVELOPER on — : 28 5411 GheaOrecr Jason DELO sone 28 A12 Crem SrWoF 08s FROMMNE DSLEPUEN emerson M2 Mine O>sunot. a dl 3421 Cana Dre cr ns roan Gren ery 4422 _Coprrms Sra Joa rou i OPERAS. a 3431. Capra ec dos rrowline Rectan : — 2 432 Capra Sewor Joes REREAD == : 2 5 Porumouluets... = 20 ‘38 RESIDENTIAL REALESTATE PCTS. 0 87 MuneciPaToxaron crs, : 0 3B EFFECTSONPLBUCROADS AND SHFENY anon 7 at 539. POTENTALIUPICTSCNBUSHESS DEVELOPMENT ne ® at S84 Pore Mens cu CurENT BUGNESSES, SENN LL Were CURE BUSRESES-SUNAFYe—snenesrson ens a dopaMiuucnenr 8 Eoorcucs DM Assos8 zonal input Analy, Propose Coclvane Hl God Mlne 382 POTENTALOFPORTINTIESFORNEMBUSNESSES noon a 3921 OmernnmesroRNEMBUSNESEES- GUM. nr—nnsnssvenennensome 340 PACTS ON TOURISM on soonnmurnnnnennnnnnne 10 TovrssuAscers Sr rs — eS 5310341, Soe Starea Toutsuaso Goon Asse Se Naas $00.12 Te SE M/E RVER own oe a {4101.13 Siena ND OME. 3102 THe FUTREFORST Nos TOR 541021. Poreme hers ovo. Tas Aesereor ve Coco fh hie Pea. 811 PoTeMTaLLesicy PROKErS, = 3111 LEGAcyPROLETS UFPORTEDBY T= Me PROPOENT.. —— ‘4812 LeaucyPaaucors urPeRtEDgY PROM ROWALIES Glan PROTON. REFERENCES AN IFORAATIN SOURCES. Bes8eeesaeaves sfor Mee Eoovaucs SU Assocsa0 ‘SUMMARY OF FINDINGS In 2017 Atlantic Gold Corporation announced their Moose River Consolidated Project involving gold mining sites a the Touguoy Mine in Mooseland, Beaver Dam, Fiftoen Mile ‘Stream and Cochrane Hill in Nova Scotia, ‘The proposed Cochrane Hill open pit gold mine project inthe Municipality ofthe District of St. Mary's (the Municipality) will be developed in association with the curently operating ‘Touquoy Mine in Mocesland and be permitted and operuted ota separate ouelitecurface ‘The Council ofthe Municipality requested this study to help form its position regarding the Mine, ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN ‘An environmental sean of key baseline socio-economic conditions was completed t help assess how the Municipality might absorb impacts ofthe Project. DEMOGRAPHIC ScAN The older age structure inthe Municipality and the dectine in the population age groups that rake up the prime working age cohorts suggest that the Muniipality’s labour force will have difficulty absorbing the jobs created by the mine. Only the age cohorts age 65 —74 grew from 2006-16, suggesting that the majority of intra and interprovineial migrants arriving in the Municipality fen tobe inthe post-retirement age groups. Lasour Force ScAN Residents who were employed sometime during the 12 months, 2015-16, worked on average for 35 weeks, 6.5 weeks less (16% less) than people inthe Rest of Nova Scotia (RONS) suggesting that businesses are working well below capacity Inreased economic activity due to indirect and induced impacts will likely show up as increases in the number of weeks worked rather than disrete new jobs. ‘Trades, equipment operators and manufacturing related occupations showed the largest ‘decrease in their share ofthe experienced labour force suggesting that i significant number ‘of residents ae to gun employment at the mine there will need to be job-traning programs, ‘SOCIAL AND CosmuNmTY SAN Secondary residences make up 38% ofthe housing stock (vs 12% in the RONS). The owners ‘of secondary private dvellings may be reticent to have the peaceful use of ther properties, ‘potentially interfered with by the operation ofthe mine. The relatively large number of secondary private dwellings suggests that temporar/seasonal residents they have an outsized cffect on public opinion regarding the mine. [Education levels among the Municipality's cre working age cohort (25 ~ 6 years old) are substantially lower than in the RONS. However, the percentage of 25 to 64 year-olds that hhave trades centfieates or diplomas is signifiantly higher than in than in the RONS. This W domaine 8 Eooncuecs Di Asideszonal pat Analysis Proposed Cochrane il Gold ig 010 suggests that « good portion of working age residents may be job ready, ot may need ‘moderate upgrading, for work atthe mine Economic SecToRs ScAN "Efforts should be made to eonvinee the mine’s proponent to structure tender packages ina ‘manner conducive to bidding by local businesses. Ithes efforts are successful some of the ‘eel in the construction an waste management & remediation sectors could be reversed MaveRIAL Weiuetwa Scan “The gap in after-tax income is almost enticly de tothe lower average number of weeks: worked in St, Mary's (35 weeks) versus the RoNS (41.5 weeks). This suggests that wage rates inthe Municipality are comparable to those in the rst of Nova Scotia 55.5% of resident households inthe Municipality are in the two lower of five income tranches compared to 46.8% in the rest of Nova Scotia, If even a small number of residents ‘of the municipality are abl to win jobs atthe mine, which will pay on average about $84,500 per year, the houseliold income profile of households in the municipality could improve ‘The difference inthe overall percentage of low income persons in the Municipality, ‘compared tothe RoNS, is due almost entirely fo very high pereentage of persons 65 years old ‘nd older living in low after-tax households It is unlikely that persons over 6S yeas old will directly benefit financially from any growth eaused by the mine. However, he inerease inthe ‘wx base provides the Municipality with increased revenue, some of which could be used to ‘expand services fr seniors to mitigate the effects associated with low aftertn ‘Socio-Econowic IMPACTS OF THE MINE Me DeveLoPient EcoNowicIuPAcTs apc a pa [aaa eSrausanan | ea a a Seat | Nat occ moa, lee] te re | rept jue cor re [oom | fens ne cero ar Tae] —Tan|—weR| wal al wal — Feet — ela] — aaa panies —fe mila afr mails nfs ane —eels — fe — 0a] pases] ers arfe—]e—fsaefaefs ef eat| ff [ce | ——|s— ar] am | ——[s — tatoo -ear| + — ose 3 aT ial year of mine development will eeate about 91 ditect jobs, Each direct job will, pay about $84,522, not including supplementary labour income. About 92 indirect snd induced jobs wil be crested throughout Nova Scotia and 58 inthe rest of Canada In cach ofthe five years after intial development capital repair and capital replacement will ate about 40% ofthe impacts associated with the initial development spending a Mascon & ancy 0M Asioieszona pact Anais, Proposed Cochrane Hil Gol Mae aa ‘The following table summarizes the job and housthold income impacts ofthe initial development ofthe mine andthe five yeas of capital repair and capita replacement that follow the initial year of development Development and Capital Replacement Related Job Impacts, iy (ootincuing | Household benefits) | Income ne Deeoprent Nova cata et nil Yer Devlin Jobs ot] saaza | “srraoses Wary care Oeil Yen Davee ta, high unger sa] saesze|_s108 Rea otNevs St ren Voor Davee 7a] seasz2 98 a7 Nova cota Spinoff nl Year Development obs sz] § — «4aar | sqos0za8 5: War caph l pnot ntl en Deveon ote 4 assim a|s azar] stonm0 RestNeva Sa Spotl Ven Drape bs wos agar | SasTa,68 Tino Bevlopment/Captal Relacemant Toa Yea [ava Sais iret CapiatRepacemant 0s rE anys care Dre Cpt Replacements (2h suman) sr] sexsze| snownaes ResttNovs Santa Over Capt apace Ts | sana | groans Nova cota Spina Capa Replace obs et] agar | sasetare Man cape ep Capel Rescarentne( TCE ssn) 5] suger] setae Reso vs SS Cop Rea “a saa | soars pial Replacement ars seasza| sanz wary capireoDvecDordopnat Capa Ropaoonom bs, igh assures) ss] sesze| sassnsoe ResitNova Sata Dred Dovabpnon d Capt Repaoonon os zeal seasza| srassiare Nov Sota Spna Development & Capa Repacenant sobs a| saz | grazer Sanya of inaOevdopren Co Repent os 4% asumpin 2] sper |_ sas080 Resotara Sa Spat Dope Cae Reap sas zo] suzsr| srapsor ‘Sucr ona Manaaemen & Foon ‘Caerurm Dikécr Joas FRow Mie DEvELOPNENT ‘Most development direct jobs will be constuction type jobs (trades transport and equipment operator). [Experienced trades and transport and equipment operator labour inthe Municipality destined significantly from 2006 to 2016. The large declines suggest that if local residents are to ga employment during mine development there will need tobe skills upgrading end training soo Mavic & Ecncncs JOM Assoiteszona pact Analy Proposed Cochrane Gold 2019 programs. About 50 t0 60 experienced construction related labour, trades, transport and equipment ‘operator personnel may be available for employment during mine development. Moreover, a large percentage ofthe experienced labour is 65 years old and older, "The capture of direct mine development jobs could be enhanced ifthe projeet proponent is willing ‘+ to engage in skills upgrading programs for local Iabout, and to erento bid package tht can be effectively bid upon by local fim Residents ofthe Municipality might capture, at most,20% of the direct mine devetopment obs In cach ofthe five years aftr initial development capital repair and capital replacement will create about 40% ofthe impacts associated with the initial development spending ‘Gaprurms SrmorF Joos Frou Me Devexorwent About 92 indirect and induced jobs will be ereated throughout Nova Scotia by the development ofthe mine Incach ofthe five years after intial development capital repair and capital replacement will ‘ereate about 40% ofthe impacts associated with the intial development spending Assuming that no special efforts are made by the proponent to purchase goods and services, St. Mary's ean expect to capture 1% 04% ofthe spinoff activity. ‘The capture of spinoff mine development jobs could be enhanced if the project proponent is willing ‘+ 10 contact-out elements of mine development; and + 10 ereate bid packages that can be effectively bid upon by local fms. vasa Mencnens &Econouecs suuassocescononle pact Anal Proposed Cochrane il God Mine 2a ‘MINE OPERATIONS Econlomte INPRCTS Gg of Cc nde Certo ona en 27 ST aor aba ee aT — ron] ae i Ta zai ay 1 sa 1 ‘The mine will operate for about six years. Each operating year the mine will ereate about 220 direct jobs and each direct job will pay bout $84,522, not inluding supplementary labour income. Each operating year about 193 indirect and induced jobs willbe created throughout Nova ‘Scotia and 113 inthe rest of Canad, ‘CaeTuRwe DREcTJows FROM Ie OPERATIONS “Most operations jobs will require the job skis associated with «skilled trades person; + transport and equipment operators & related jobs; + mining, natural resources; agriculture & related production jobs; and ‘+ manufacturing related jobs About 120 experienced workers in these oecupatons in the Municipality may be available {or employment a the mine. large percentage of the experienced Inbouris 65 yeas ol and older The capture of direct mine operations jobs could be enhanced i the projest proponent: + engages in sills upgrading programs for local labour, and + reates bid packages for goods and serves used by the mine that ean be effectively bid yn by local fim. Residente may he able canmie, at most, 0% of the direct operations jobs. ‘Camrurie SpwoFF Joes FRow Me OPeRATONs About 193 indirect and induced jobs wil be crested throughout Nova Scotia by the operation of the mine, Assuming that no spesal efforts are mad by the proponent to purchase goods and services, St. Mary's can expect to capture 1% 0 4% of the spinoff activity ‘The eapture of spinoff mine operations jobs could be enhanced ifthe project proponent is willing soba Mavic 8 Eooucncs OM Assocs+ {0 contract-out elements of mine development; and + 10 ereate bid packages that can be effectively bid upon by local fis. “The following table summarizes the job and household income impacts of the operation the mine Bears Cumulative Mine RectamaTio Iupacts Teac | Moura Houseboat obs] ncsingbenfts|| Income | Jobs | income Tv Sota Dea Ope ake [0 ea | ara | TS rcp vel plone [508 nh ase) se sis| sys es ozs Raster Satie grains —| Tt Sas | ser] mes ra ova Sola pine Opctins Jobs | ea | ataar| saan ua] tiga | 244040 r/c Operate Spot i aun) sls aaa 102020 ols _ erase Rela So Opn Sprarizs —[ es [§ ———teaar]| ——taprao0] tos ares eae aa a TET ws oo wet [ate] | ome [RT vam |, [oom] [aim] gg coe | Noe ee | tn | "lana one] | ow | fg ve ea = Salas —val sac stom t= tafe S fatto afi af ans — sal a8] sf — fo fasaacoasa sf taifs—anfsea fs — a { Saaeoee ft — te ‘anf aa of — on if scares —r fsa ifs — fe af ae Sa ‘Mine reclamation will eeate about 35 direct fulltime equivalent jobs and 30 spinoff jobs throughout Nova Scotia ‘Caprurine DREcr Jas FROM INE RECLAWATION ‘Most reclamation jobs will requite skills associated with trades persons, transport and {equipment operators & related occupations and natural resources and agricul production occupations related Experienced workers in these occupations declined significantly from 2006 to 2016, Given estimates of current employment, about 100 experienced workers in these occupations inthe Municipality may be available for employment during mine reclamation, Residents may be abe to capture up to 40% of the direct reclamation jobs. ow Assoscoshrane Hi Gol ti CAPTURING SPO JOBS FROM NE RECLAMATION About 30 indieet and induced jobs will be eeated throughout Nova Scotia by the reclamation ofthe mine Assuming that no special efforts are made by the proponent to purchase goods and services, St. Mary's ean expect to capture 1% 0 4% ofthe spinoff activity. ‘The capture of spinoff mine reclamation jobs could be enhanced if the project proponent is willing ‘+ 0 conttact-out elements of mine development; and + to create bid packages that canbe effectively bid upon by local firms. ‘The following table summatizes the job and houschold income impacts ofthe reclamation of the mine [_____ Wine Reclamation Related sob ingacst | ‘ve. Salary ot | Househa obs [including benets}| Income NoveSeata Oke MineRectaaton Jobs | 35, sono] seoras74 xy ape oDretine Reet ot Ws igh sung) “ sone ss tov zk ted Opa is —| 74 sonia] Fi. 20.90 Nova Seofa Spinal ln Recon sobs so|s aaa] sis Se ys cope one Roche ot (1 ese) sls aan sen Recta Sa Sonat Ne Redan te mls ups] sizes rach ed ovr13yars depend rodaraon sbi (Sever vonomanamamemasgammmegs | POPULATION INPACTS. The impacts on St. Mary's population wil be very limited for the following reasons because all jobs (direct and spinoff) created by the Cochrane Hill goldmine projet wil be temporary because the project has lifeeyele of seven to nine years may be possible to inerease the numberof permanent residents ifthe Municipality would take it upon itselT to identity former residents who have maved away for work and who may be able to compete for jobs atthe mine. Because of their personal connection tothe “Municipality, they may be willing to take the risk of moving back to St. Mary's. RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE IMPACTS “The impacts on the value of cuvent properties, and onthe potential for new residential properties, wil stem mainly from the following fuctos: ‘+ noise, dist, ight polation and tafe generated by the project and view planes into the projets and ‘subjective perceptions of the effect ofthe mine of the peaceful use of curent properties Results ofthe noise, dust, light pollution, traffic and view plane studies are not yet available outer a Ecoucuacs sw Associatescanoe Insc Ans, Proposed Cochran NG Mine hence no conclusions ean be dra nat tis time regarding impacts on curren property values. ‘MunicPa. Taxarion apacrs “The assessed commercial value will be inthe order of $14,850,315 (20198). Based on this value andthe commercial tx rate foe 2019, tax revenue, per operating year, will be about $328,837. Details ofthe components ofthe mine and thet eost have not yet been provided to the ‘consultants. Once they become availabe, a more accurate estimate of municipal ax revenue ‘ean be produced. EFFECTS oN PUBLIC ROADS AND SAFETY “The proponents trafic study was not complete atthe time of writing Based on the project description of September 2018 there will be about 128 vehicle roundteps per day of which si willbe heavy transport trucks and the remainder will be light teucks and private cars of employees. ‘Virtually all vehicle trips will use all season, all weather Provincial highways. Preliminary analysis indicates that Highway 7 in St. Marys has suicient capacity and ‘capability to handle increased trafic without abnormal impacts on road conditions or adverse effects on public safety. The consultants are waiting further information from Transportation snd Infiastructure Renewal Nova Seota “The average annual daily traffic (ADT) onthe section of Highway 7 between the mine site and Sherbrooke will rise to about 1,045 from the eurent 910 AADT. Of the 135 inerease in AADT about [2 willbe eight axel C "Tain trucks and the remainder willbe passenger and. small commercial vehicles. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON BUSWESS DEVELOPMENT Porenria.Inpacrs oh CuRsent BUSINESSES The business and organizations with the most potential to gain from the mine prj teucking, electrical, fuel, mechanical, building supply, excavating some adminis personal services “The business and organizations with the highest rsk and potentially the most o lose are those inthe tourism and recreation sector, particulary those that are closely aligned with the recreational use ofthe St. Mary's River Porenri OFPORTUNTIES FoR New BuSMESSES ‘Based on the proponents project description it does not appear thatthe operation of the mine ‘would support significant, sustainable new business creation Heavy ruck hauling, explosive servicing and fuel delivery and general construction and ‘demolition may be contracted out, This however hs yet to be confirmed, Existing suppliers and contactors currently supporting the proponents other mine operations in Nova Scotia could absorb most or all ofthe required goods and services and acklitional ‘operational requirements for Cochrane Hill, doanavcnenre Scenics JO seersEconomic psc Aras Proposed Cochrane il Gold Mine 219 POTENTIAL InPACTS ON LocAL TOURISM ASSETS ‘The proposed Cochrane Hill mine is a potential threat tothe curent sustainability ad future rout ofthe tourism sector inthe Municipality ‘The potential threat comes in several orm: *+ Mine operations could be the soure of light, dust and noise pollution. + Containments used in the mining process could get into the waterways including the St Mary's River. + Regular scheduled large tandem ore trucks on the min shore highway may discourage tourists, + The mere existence ofan open pt mine is operating inthe area could act asa disincentive for tourists and potential seasonal residents. POTENTIAL LeGAcy PROvECTS Leancr Proutcrs SuPPoRTE® By TH Me PROPONENT (On completion of major projects communities often negotiate to require investment by the project proponent in legacy projects that help compensate the local community for its absorption of negative impacts associated with large projects Proponents may leave projest specific redundant equipment, buildings or other assets tothe ‘community. The community ean negotiate for legacy projects that suit its needs, Leoxcr Prouecrs SuproRTe® By PROVINCIAL ROYALTIES ON MINERAL PRODUCTION Legacy projects are often sponsored by senior levels of goverment to help compensate ‘nunicpaities for their absorption of negative. “Municipalities do not receive direct financial benefits that stem from land based resource cxtraction royalties pad toa Provincial Government, However, municipalities ean petition provincial governments to sponson/develop legacy project(s) that are indirectly funded from provincial royalties, Royalties associated with aetvities at Coch snc Hill will be about $738,951 per year domuivucnven 8 Eoonoucs J AssocsEconomie inact Anal, Proposed Cochane Hl Gold ive ame 1 INTRODUCTION ‘The Municipality ofthe Distt of St. Mary's (the Municipality) encompasses a land mass of aver 1,900 sq, km within the eastern region of Guysborough County, Nova Scotia, Traditional industry inthe area was firming, fishing, forestry and mining, More recently, the sea increased its concentration on the lobster fishery and tourism as its main econo drives. |n2017 Atlante Gold Corporation announced their Moose River Consoldated Project involving gold mining sites atthe Touquoy Mine in Mooseland, Beaver Dam, Fifteen Mile Stteam and Cochrane Hill ia Nova Scotia, 1.1. BACKGROUND To THIS STUDY open pit gold mine (the Project) will: + be developed in association with the currently operating Touquoy Mine in Mooseland; + be permitted and operate as a sepatate satellite surface mine; + have a production rte of approximately two million Mt of god-bearing ore per yea; ‘crush and concentrate ore atthe site (There will not be CIL-eyande leach circuit tthe Project site): ‘+ haul the god concentrate 142.km overall weatherall season roads southward from the ‘mine site to the Touquoy processing facility for final processing (No hauling will take place on any roads owned and maintained by the Municipality). The Project timefame will include a one-year mine development program, about six ‘operating years anda | to 3 year mine reclamation program. The Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency ordered an environmental assessment for the Cochrane Hill Open Pt gold mine proposal and Atlantic Gold are currently working on ‘an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) as pat ofthis process, The EIS was expected to be ‘completed in late summer / early fall of 2019 at which time hearings wll be held. However, «8 of December 2019 the EIS has not been completed dapuMinucasew 8 Eooucuacs JD AssisEcanonic Insc Ansa, Proposed Cochrane Hl God Mine 29 ps ine Se, shows the location ‘The ea ‘ofthe proposed Project in the Municipality of the Distiet of St, Mary's and in the context of nds the St. Mary's River Conservat St. Mary's River Conservation Lands roposed Mine Sito oon oe Prin Peete vss (apron Protected a (Peng) Prin Crow ana arcnesiins Pate od r SURALeprve Conve . Ronde ("| e aoa Maen & Focuoits ou Assocszonal impact Analysis Proposeé Cochran Hl Gld Mine a0 The exit olow Cochrane Hil Aan Gold mineral aims, shows the location of Atlantic Gold's mineral claims at Cochrane Hill, 1.2 PURPOSE ‘The Municipality ofthe District of St. Mary's (the ‘Municipality’ needs to evaluate the iret indirect and indaced impacts on the Municipality stemming from the proposed gold mining operation by Atlantic Gold at Cochrane Hil This economic impact assessment is needed to help ‘+ Kdeniy positive and negative socio-economic impacts that could be associated with the development, operation and closure ofthe proposed goldmine} ‘weigh economic and sora factors of the proposed mine that can be attributed tothe “Municipality and the residents of the Municipality; explore ways to leverage the mining related activity to increase and expand the social and economic base of the Municipality; and ‘Council informing position regarding the proposed Cochrane Hill surféce gold mine dopamine a Eoovctcs OM AssesEsanomic inact nay, Proposed Cochrane Hl Gol Mine 20 41.3 Score “The geographical scope focuses on the direct and indirect socio-economic effects ofthe proposed mine on the residents, economy and municipal government ofthe Municipality of the District of St. Mary's. Effects outside of the Municipality will be responsibility of senior levels of government ‘We understand that the fous must be on the effects onthe Munipality and its esidents. However, to understand fully the potential economic effets on the Municipality we allocate some effort to understand the totality of the ezonomic effets ofthe mine. The assessment of the wider effets of the mine provides baseline information that will help identity the extent to hich the Muniipality ean expture positive impacts beyond those that Would occur without supportive ations ofthe Municipality. The subject matter scope includes: ‘+ employment estimates for local residents; + population changes; + business opportunities for new start-ups and business expansions; + socio-economic impacts to the St May’ River; + housing / eal estate valuation/devaluation within 5, 10 and 20 kam radius intervals ofthe ‘proposed mine site; + impacts on public roads as result ofthe mine and transportation of the minerals to the ‘Touquoy processing feelitys + tourism impacts; ‘+ public safety ~ mining operations and inereased heavy truck trafic en-route from mine to processing feeility; + long term economic and social impacts ofthe closed mine after reclamation; and + taxation impacts forthe Municipality The terms of reference included an “Other” category i ist of subject matter requirements. ‘Based on experience we added issues of legay impacts that shouldbe considered Experience in other impact analyses shows that legacy impact ean include roads and in- ground infrastructure eft forthe use ofthe local municipality, movable strvctures that can be {epurposed, special cornmunty poets sponsored by the mine's proponent, spec suppon by the provincial government to help the community absorb the impact ofthe mine, et. "To provide a useful assessment of impacts we provide baseline measures of Key socio «economic conditions relevant tothe community's ability to absorb the positive and negative impacts ofthe Project. To that end, we include inthe scope an environmental sean sega Mawisne® Eoovcycs JOM Assocsane Coxhrane i Gott zonal impact Analysis Prop 2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN ‘The environmental sean of baseline key sorio-economie conditions relevant to absorbing positive and negative impacts ofthe Projet includes the following: ‘+ demographie scan; + Iabour fore sean; + social and community sean; teonomie sectors sean; nd ‘material wolbsing sean. 2.1 DemoGRaPHic SCAN 24.4. POPULATION Popul 7006 me TMaye OSD [ RestotNow Scot Resteiow Ste ra Gio ina] aa yr Taal tae Te| are aims| com] a yo Bie 465 nea wo] ers] ua onees | — ne] ro s-ye| Tiel i268 erat — vio] Ave] asx]. 5] a6] 1098] years are geo suf — 70] are] ann] spoon] aru] 104 aye Biael agai suf —woo| —torw| ants] 9 105[ maze] a as years ‘sasf Wesi0—_ieasf se | ise] —_-tsax[ sarza] os] ra cya rap Hioass rare — ae] vase] aru vasnsa| 95 204 [szr4yers] ais] 1226 reso eos | v7.ru| asa tonsa | v.06] an rsseyears| —1a5| Tax teeta m5 ata] tease | — cra] so fryers | — 15] —zanf 535 a0 — ro] — an] —— arias | ze 04 ear Cowie 0,276 Joni Mananarmant& koonamios Tosa vrai basa) ‘The exhibit above, Population, 2006 2016, shows the population ofthe Municipality and the rest of Nova Seotia in 2006 and 2016. The municipality showed a substantial population decline (13.9%) in contrast to some growth (1.2%) in the rest of NS (RoNS), occured in all age cohorts except inthe age 65 ~ 74 ‘The Municipality's population de cohort The most significant declines are inthe 15 - 44 year cohorts, which are the prime working tig cohorts and dhe prime aly cretion eins ‘The Municipality has a significantly older age structure than the rest of Nova Seotia. About 31% of population in the municipality is 65 yeats or older (¥s 19% in RONS), ‘The older age structure inthe Municipality and the decline in the population age groups that, rake up the prime working age cohorts suggest that the Municipality's labour force will have difficulty absorbing the jobs created by the mine. dopaMuusnenr & Eoowauacs LW AssocsJc pact Analysis, Proposed Cochrane God Wine ate 24.2 POPULATION MOBILITY Population Mobily, 2016 ‘Sant Wary CSD_| Resto Nova Scola ato Ta a a Sore rov.= angel aos a0 ovate ste C00, C01 a Taper mira Tae oi zim] Fis | a Tepe 2is[ ee] Ee ee ail 5 is Ago Zio waa Nene 740] — aa sin aes | — ora Soepo.-tayeiates [sw] wea5[ Toso] 284% Towa ane C30, CO} | 7a] aa] aa ina ng wo] ae eas] aa Discentno errno wt — ar ers] ram Teor gras BL] aan] — aie Ere mE | —_ors[ az] 28 ens aW (ona Matiaaemant a FeSmomies ORS ey aa uo brung) ‘The exhibit above, Population Mobily, 2016, shows thatthe overall mobility in the municipality is similar to the RONS. Dring te five-year period, 2011 ~2016, $8% ofthe residents didnot move ot moved within the Municipality vs 87% forthe RoNS (2011-16) In percentage toms, the portion ofthe Municipality's population tha are insn-provint inerprovincial migrants is similar tothe RoNS, {As the exhibit describing the population structure ofthe Municipality shows, only the age cohorts age 65 ~74 grew from 2006-16, suggesting thatthe majority of intra and inter- provincial migrants arriving inthe Municipality tend tobe in the post-retirement age groups. This also suggests thet the Municipality may be a prefered destination for post-retirement people, who may have chosen the atea for reasons that might conflict with signifieant socio- ‘economic or environmental change. doulas 8 foovaucs Su AssocsEconomic impact Analysis Proposed Cachan il Gld Mine 209 2.2 LABOUR FORCE SCAN 2.24 Work ActTy Work Activity (Pop. 154), 2015416 SC Marys CSD Rest of Nova Soot -. | Dib nolwork wae] Tass ae Werke eof 465,100 BB Wiseg Ti yor ie Zak [ Baty 2 Wired pty end patne sean Ba 3a erage weeks worked 0 on [Sse Cons 2016 an Jazia Manaasiment & Economies (obs ra oot deb ondha) “The exhibit above, Wo 15), 2015 16, shows thatthe Municipality as an experienced labour fore of about 1,190. ‘As expected, a smaller percentage ofthe Municipality's labour force age group worked in the 12 months preceding the census than inthe RONS. Residents who were employed sometime during the 12 months, 2015-16, worked on average or 35 weeks, 65 weeks less (16% less) than people in the RONS. The low average number of weeks worked suggests that businesses and their employees are working well below capacity. Increased economic setivity due to indirect and induced impacts will likely show up as. increases in the number of weeks worked and improved profitability of businesses rather than discrete new jabs, 2.2.2 LABOUR FORCE STATUS Labour Force Status (Pop, 154), 2016 ‘Se Marys C30 _] Rest ofNova Scot Popubion To years “1350 TT Tne bur fre 1.120 a73a76 Enplyed ng 28 06 ‘Unamooyed 25 47075 Tin abou Be a Bez Parisi rae Box e13% Enpbymentrae 2H Sh Unenpigyment ab 18 39% Source: Censis ani, Jozsa Management & Eaonomi (ToaITay Naradd due lb courng} ‘The exhibit above, Labour ere Status (Pop 15+), 2018, shows that atthe time ofthe 2016 Census only 915 residents reported being employed (versus 1,190 who reported working at some time during the previous 12 months). dopa Masao a Boonoucs DM seiscones npat Aral, Propostd Cera ‘The participation rate is lower than that of the RoNS or three main reasons: ‘+ People ate likely leaving the active labour Force due to low expectations for Finding work. ‘+ About 35% ofthe labour force age group is 65 years or older (vs 2% in the RoNS} ‘Drawing significantly more labour from the prime working age group (20 ~ 54 years ‘old) may be dificult snes it accounts for only 39% of the labour force age group (LPAG) vs 52% in the RoNS. 2.2.3. ExpeRIeNcen LanouR FORCE AY OccuPATION Eiparenced Labour Fores by Occupaion ae 06 Tye CGD | Ritof Now Sota | Sc ny= O80 _[ Ret fo Sota [et Orage tage TH] Aisespsbes a Tal wo Hes co saul tis Bas ea Sa rc Bef Tas Tad ape ees 6 a ao a9 eat a aa sia Farsi by a cama tgp aves | ot Sif sae ta, oak pe 3 arf are Sasa ees pane 38 Tay wa Trae trpr ond eagmTopeas aan | 12 ay ee Naud mess apie Abi pin axl 2D Mig sof ae saul Zia (Touiay lee wrong ‘The exhibit above, Experienced Labour Force by Occupation, shows that the compost ‘Municipality’ experienced labour force (i.e. People who have worked at sometin ‘previous 12 months) changed significantly from 2006 to 2016, “The oceupation groups: ‘highlighted in tight red show occupations that have increased thelr share ofthe ‘experienced labour force; and + highlighted in light blue show occupations that have reduced their share ofthe ‘experienced labour free In percentage tems: ‘+ Management, health and education/aw/govt services occupations showed the largest increase in thir share of the experienced labour force. + Trades, equipment operators and manufacturing related occupations showed the largest ‘decrease in their share ofthe experienced labour force. The large declines in these ‘occupations suggests that ia significant numberof focal residents are to gain ‘employment atthe mine there will ned to be job traning programs, dora ivan foovcyscs JOM AsotesEzonamic pat Aralyss Proposed Cochran il Gold Mine am 2.2.4, EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE AND PLACE OF WORK ployment by Place oT Resdenes and Pace Wr, 201-206 monty ae of Residence and Place of Work, 201 bnoanam EN “raha ET MOD = CR TC TC sama, sao | 20] ea] wena [AMMO] P| ea] a tury | Toes] | Toe woop erway nO] — | — are] — aos] ers Susy Tas]_(7aiPeas cd [ora ae | Tare] — 175 Tove a sca wpa cO [a as ramos — Far ra) xv Ufc “i Sr CO [Way WO 175 res Ta Tas a ‘The exhibit above, Employment by Plae of Residence and Piao of Work, 2001 2016, shows that 30% - 40% of employed St, Marys residen's commute to jobs outside ofthe Muni ply. The Antigonish CD isthe destino for about 2 ofthe o-omuters St. Mary’ residents hod about 80% ofthe jobs inthe Mnisipaity. About 20% ofthe jobs in St Mary's are held primarily by commuter frm the Antigonish and Petou CDs “The oarey to work data also sugges that thre ae 17% more employed residents than hee are jobs in St May's and therefore tht he Miniipality isa net imporr of jobs. Employment th mine would likely tu St. Mary's into a net exporter of obs forthe duration ofthe mine's operon ‘The development and operating life ofthe mine is about 7 years and incomming from Antigonish and Pietou CDs is already common. Hence, permanent relocations of workers from outside St. Mary's will likely be limited. doralvuncnuct 8 Eecuncs Assocsanomie inpse Analyl, Proposed Cochrane Hl God Mine 218 2.3 SOCIAL AND Community SCAN 2.3.4. OccuPleD DWELLINGS; TENURE, AGE AND TYPE ‘Occupied Dwellings by Tenure, Age & Typo, 2016 ‘Scans C50 Rest of Wova Sota Geaipd by va eien en ‘urs 3 Ret [7 Barchoae z Dwaing moron Oye Eo Dwalngs 15yr,olories —____ | __ Th oui. Oxupbd ova dveingsty we | ~ 1B Shige courhe house a panting, Soe ne says ovate dveing oT Ofer atcha aweing a Seni 7 ow se ee 7 Pesan blag bs SE (ees ayaa ose) The exhibit above, Occupied Dwelings by Tenure, Age & Type, 2018, shows that compared tothe RONS +The ate of home ownership is much higher than in the rest of Nova Seota + Homes tend to be olde. +The percentage of dvellings that are secondary residences is substan the rest of Nova Scotia “The large share of dwellings that are secondary residences is indicative ofthe aration of St Marys for leisure and retirement ‘The owners of secondary private dwellings may be reticent to have the peaceful use oftheir properties potentially interfered with by the operation ofthe mine, The relatively large numberof secondary private dwellings suggests that temporary/seasonal resident they have ‘an outsized effect on public opinion inthe community. ‘Conversely, the large stock of secondary residences provides revenue- generating ‘opportunities to owners who may wish to ret to emplayees of the mine. ly higher than in fac Maviseuen & Econaycs 0M AssociatesEconomie inact Any, Proposed Cochrane Hi old Mine ae 2.3.2 HouseHoLD Size AND OccUPIED DWELLINGS BY VALUE AND CONDITION Household Size and Occupied Dwellings by Condition and Value, 2016 Sewaya CS] Resto Nove Seale aa] Tu ri Nar of persons va Fou 285 6,5 rerepoheurod > zi 2 iverap unborn pr ate ca a Desh rove fn oe prem peroon |__| — 00% a0 | 05% Alta Wa of lg 6) ae moat [itn ve odes $i jinn aieumionaiiea “| toate ny regi manor orn eats eae 012 | Soa —sosa7a | — oi ar reps ede “00 — sex — 5.75 | — 00% [Souce: Cosa daria Management & Economics (Siew msy vlad de reateg) ‘The exhibit above, Housshol Sze And Occupied Dueling By Value And Condon, shows that ‘ceupied dwellings in St. Mary's are of similar size and condition to those in the RONS. Lower dwelling values ae to be expected ina rural area when compared tothe RONS that is weighted tothe higher housing costs and large sumber of dvellings in the Halifax Regional Municipality, ‘The lower dwelling cost suggests an opportunity to make some sales to employees ofthe mine who may be atraeted by the lower casts even i the mine operates for only six or seven years Similarly, the lower dwelling costs might incentivize owners of dwellings to offer attractive rental rates to employees of the mine. dona Muscat & concacs sbuwassectescanoe Ans, Proposed Cochrane Hl Gold Mine 2.3.3 FAMLy AND HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION Family and Household Composition, 2076 ‘Se wanys O80 [Rest at Nova Soe at aa Ta “Toil Census Foy Household ‘To 7% Toe “a — ea 0 — So ‘ar eae a oan] as — Somer San oe ore Aiea eR Tesla es Cape Tar Toma ‘a Tae Sea [ itiietime aaa sa“ Tesi ras Hae era Taso aoe Faron Ses be —[— a |e Tn ey | ia Sob Cis ama dammaatat& eas Tay iodo jrouncing ) ‘The exhibit above, Famly and Household Composit, 2018, shows thatthe: ‘average houschold sizes are smaller in St. Mary's than inthe RoNS;, ‘+ percentage of coupe families without children is substantially higher than inthe RoNS; and + peteentage of lone parent families is much lower than in the RONS. ‘That the percentage of lone parent fimiles inthe Municipality is lower than inthe rest of "Nova Scotia may suggest that there may be more flexibility for family member pateipation inthe economic atvity caused by the mine than might otherwise be the eae in the rest of "Nova Scotia, JOM Aseteszonal pact Anais Prop au 2.3.4 EDUCATION BY HiGHEST LEVEL Seat %oToa Tobi ghee: Jon No crew, dpioma or dens Seedy oa dba oo Foseson da crab; dona or po 7epercsip orto cotter er dens Calo CESEF cree oii a svelte dana tc vel vay cotter ora dos, bar oe cl igh cr pin, dears, op. ocr Ga cr dees BRIE ~ [158 Sanday hoa dere oo, 3167808] Poses crab; Seibma or 5 30605] epertlip rte a dn 8 Cale, GESEP ernaunvesiy oii aa 7528 rer el er daa ew Ec ve aor ivy ete ora dae re ere CL [Save 2016 Cems ou Jona Management A Economies (ose rtosTd0 boa) ‘The exhibit above, Education by Highest Level, 2016, shows that in general, education levels among the Municipality's care working age cohort (25 6b years old) ae substantially ower than in the RoNS, However, the percentage of 25 to 64 year olds that have trades certificates or diplomas is significantly higher than in than in the RoNS. This suggests that a good portion of working age residents may be job ready, or may need moderate upgrading, for work atthe mine. asa Neawoenen A Boones sbutasseritessanomie Insc Anal, Proposed Cochrane Hl Gol Mine 2010 2.3.5 EDUCATION BY FIELD oF STUDY Education by Fleld of Study, 2016 Se [Restoftora Scot] [aio ‘Fae wea] sae] cr ‘os | 1 ara] — 2a ii we a oa Tak] Wats | 57] ies nae AB ae S| wa] | Pye tras wc in| — te | — 2 Tana cana oes Tec wes bh Tie des ene eh Fn pr RTT Oh aa i iy ap HE Tse er] 2 is] wa] or Ta] — Tam] — oe ae] am | a THR Baw | am 1 To poseeneiny cas | _ aT] ST a |_| — 42 “Ta 38 pe we STS aos| — axe] hy Taner Bl ara] — a Sei an aro ince a a] a56 [0] — a shes ener BE oe S| _ae[ ew] 0% wom Tam] — 2 ‘aos 8s | — 7 Pye ere wee Matas comp ib oc asian gen break | ex erro] a eae wr cs ersten | | —2>6[ — san] — 1 Tea ld ‘| aoe] — sno] — ae 7 a aa] — BO aoe] 6] 0 Seno Gs it ona Managment A Eaanaming TARR =) Fe ae ET ‘her “The exhibit above, Eduction By Fak Of Study, 2016 shows that among the core working aze group, aged 25 to 64, St Mary’s has a larger than the RONS whose major fields of study are: ‘+ architecture, engineering and related technologies; and ‘+ personal, protective & transportation services. lements ofthese fields of study may make these people mate atrctive for employment at the mine. The relatively larger share ofthe educated population in these fields, compared to the rest of Nova Scotia, suggests that a reasonable portion of the edveated labour foree may bbe qualified for work tthe repose ecu Mavis 8 Ecovaycs OM AsicsEcono kpc Ans, Proposed Cochrane i 2.3.6 EDUCATION BY CURRENT POSTSECONDARY FIELD OF STUDY Education by Postsecondary Field of Study, 2016 (Pop. 15 « 24) Se lanye C80 [Ren ofNow Smt [Tosti Faron Sudy, Pop 15.24) Tir nog ommcatea | 6 — eax] — 280] — ‘i [8] — ae] ae Soin rae sare aT ‘e345 — 748] — To a rae A rh [ — een] are] ase Fiyaed Ceasers eps | —— [aon] — 036] a Tor Se ‘eae — a8] — 208 TS ef | —75%| 90] — ae Tigi annem f ean | ——Te[ — sax] — rm] — 1a Tea wT [are] ws] eae Ta ee Tain ais BY — ae] — Ta] oh {aR cs Soc Co 0 Maem A Eemnamng TOO TAS rmnia) ‘The exhibit above, Education by Post Secondary Fel of Stuy, 2016 (Pop 15-24), nets out the educated population over 24 years ol. ‘The fields of study highlighted in light red are fields of study that are more common among, the population 15 to 24 then among the population aged 25 to 64, The fields of study highlighted in ight blue are fel of study that are less common among the population 15 to 24 then among the population aged 25 to 64 ‘The increasing concentration in ‘+ physical and lf sciences and technologies; ‘+ mathematics, computer and information sefenees; and + agriculture, natural resources and conservation Fields of study suggests that the up-and-coming bour force may be in an improved pos the mine in mining in mining relating jobs relative to the education ofthe labour free over the age of 24 sora nanwceren 8 oncscs OM assedEsanale InpaetAnajl, Propose Cochvane Hl God Mine 210 2.4 Economic Sectors SCAN 2.4.4 EXPERIENCED LABOUR FORCE BY INDUSTRY iprienced Labour Free by industry 2076, 2006 agi, ey. ngs tts, aig nds 7 ie | ern eas aoe ro eT aa Tiaspatia ad 3 Tien a ae 738 Fre ans | Ree ee nd 3 Peis sn oe eater “| ‘ere gt ve apne aa ry esl ne 73% He a Ts i tare ere “08 her sens (ne oc) “| Tat er 3m ETN 1] ‘The exhibit above, Experienced Labour Fore by Indust, 2016, 200, shows thatthe economic struoture of S. Mary's saw considerable change from 2006 to 2016 “The industries that account fra large share of the experienced labour free in 2016 than in 2006 are highlighted in light red. The industries that account fora smaller share of the ‘experienced labour free in 2016 than in 2006 are highlighted in ight bie. ‘The largest percentage increases in experienced employment share were in + wholesale trades + vetil rade; professional, siete wil teu + educational sectors, al services al “The largest percentage deereases in employment were in + construction; + waste management & remediation; and + public administration sectors. [forts should be made to convince the mine's proponent to structure tender packages ina ‘manner conducive to bidding by local businesses. I these efforts are successful some of the Gecline inthe construction and waste management & remediation sectors could be reversed aoa Mavis & oonosts 0M AssosEconomie ips Ansa, Proposed Cochrane Hl God Mine a 2.5 MATERIAL WELLBEING SCAN 2.5.41 HOUSEHOLD INCOME Household Income; St Mary's CSD and Rest of Nova Scatla (2078) ‘Setanje CSD | Resto Nova Seat] ot mayo GSD % it Ave SIE Ave | HI Ine a8 hot Meseur of ow + _ | vestatn | ¢ _ | ve warn | rons cian otal come oF Fide F790 wre a Average olncons ois sarse] M% [eres] 5% era Maina or oe $5 s 5 erage afore nce of NE soa] [eee] SF Reson el hor ofone pero NE ar an ane verge lincone ofone-prsen se] [esas] OM TE an rx cae ofonegorcon is $2) ayy, [S288] a5y, Ba erage afr nceeofoe person is [$28,258 meh a Reson el hors of wo-o-nre person Be [ 806088 | peng [STIL] — 9 iy Average elncone ofwo-o-norepereen ds [$62,718 ea. Ba Meson rb hco, wor ore seem nits | $58.312 500 er verge atari neome,woorrorepercnras_[seasoe] '' [y—reme| 1% S17 Saute: Cans and (esis ray kaa ove roudag) ‘The exhibit above, Housshold Income: SL Mary's CSD and Rest of Nova Scotia (2015, shows that median after-tax incomes of households in St, Mary's are about 86% of those in the RONS. ‘The gap in after-tax income is almost entirely due to the lower average number of weeks ‘worked in St. Marys (35 weeks) versus the RONS (41.5 woeks). This suggests that wage rates inthe Municipality are comparable to those in the rest of Nova Scotia, ‘As noted inthe labour force scan the lower average of weeks worked in St. Marys suggests that businesses are working below capacity. Henee, increased economic activity de to indirect and induced impacts will ikely show up as inereases inthe numberof weeks worked and improved profitability of businesses rather than discrete new jobs. 2.5.2. AFTER TAX HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS ‘The exhibit at igh, Atet-Tax Household [~ARer-Tax Household Income Groups, 2015 lecome Groups, 2015, shows that 55.5% of — tect tne Mia | cay Fa teint me ee cr f ie CopacioixinieretorNon (REE [mal as Scotia $50,000 0 $69,008, 18.0%) 180%, Conan only25%eofredent —_foomBSsn | — tes | —— 1a households in the Municipality are in the {8100000 and higher 10.0% 16.0%, \wohighr nce nce compa sos| — so Sear Cana 34.2% in the rest of Nova Scotia, économics (Tis mey rota due bond) Naturally, iPeven a small number of 7 sfasuniuscenen 8 Eooouscs Ou Assissonal patra Proposed Caran Hil Gald Mine ane residents of the municipality re able to win jobs atthe mine, which will pay on average bout $84,500 per year, the houschold income profile of resident houscholds inthe ‘municipality could change signiticantly forthe beter “Ths fact makes it even more important that the proponent be convinced to organize local job {ies and t commit to upgrading taining that will enable more people fom the local area to win jobs tthe mine 2.5.3. PREVALENCE OF Low AFTER TAX INCOME" (LIM-AT), 2015 Prevalence of Low After Taxincome (LINAT), 2015, emery coo RestolNova Sooke Low Ate Tax nae Persons _[—¥ 4__ | ofToalPop ToaiLow Afr Tax ioone Persons [400 Bis] TT Ob 17 years @. Ba 40% Too year Too Tae Bae BS yearsand over 170 30505 30% Source: Conus and (tal ray notadd doe eundng) The exhibit above, Provalnoe of Low Afer-Tax Income (LIA, 2015 shows that the overall, percentage of persons living in low ater. the RONS, 2 households in St. Mary's is higher than iis in ‘The difference inte overall percentage of low income persons compared to the RONS is due almost entirely to very high percentage of persons 65 years old and older living in low ater~ tax households. tis highly unlikely that persons over 65 years old wil ivetly benefit financtally ftom any growth caused by the min. However, the inerease inthe tox base forthe years the mine is open will provide the “Municipality with inreased revenue, some of which could be used to expand services for senior to mitigate the effets associated with low after-tax income, "The Low-income measur aera, (LIM-AT fest xed percentage 50%) of median sted ferns Income of pvae hosel, The howsehold aes income so dre oaschold ies ett fect ta houstoll’s eds incense, bu aa decresing at, she none of members ineeases. Ince of private househols. Te hosel afer none so direct housed ies eet the fc a Fsbo needs irene, but ts deretsng ae, the numberof embers ness, daar 8 Eoovaucs OM Asectasono inpset Ashi, Propened Coane ol ing an 3 Socio-Economic IMPACTS OF THE MINE Economic impacts of the mine will stem from the: ‘+ development ofthe mine, whichis scheduled to take about one year; ‘+ operation of the mine, with an expected life of about six years; and ‘+ relamation ofthe mine site expected to take from one to three years. Impacts were estimated by drawing dat fom documentation deseribing the Cochrane Hill project as of September 2018, from Atlantic Gold's corporate presentation of June 2019 and nom similar reclamation projec n other jurisdictions. ‘The proprietary inter-regional input-output impact model of Jozsa Management & [Economics was used to calculate the overall impact, from which estimates of effects on St. Marys can be drawn, 3.1. MINE DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC IMPACTS The cost of mine development was estimated based on information drawn rom Atlantic Gold's ‘+ Cochrane ill projet description as of September 2018; and + corporate presentation of Sune 20192 Development ofthe mine is scheduled o take about one yea. Atlantic Gol’ corporate prescntation of Jane 2019 stats that its average All In Sustaining ‘Cost (AISC)" per oof god production is $713 CDNloz and that its Cash Cost pe 7 of| 01d production is $558 CDN. “The dfernce between AISC per oz and Cash Cost per oz, $173 CDN, i assumed to represent the cost of mine development, aptl maintenance, capital replacement and head cific expenses. Because the Touguoy processing facility willbe used for final processing we have reduced the $173 CDN perv by 20% (i. $138.40 CDN per oz) We assame that 38.39% the otal development, capital maintenance and eptl replacement budget wil be spent onthe intl development ofthe mine, The remaining 6.7% wil spread aver years {oto six of operations. ‘Wie have further reduced mine development costs by adjusting forthe lower costs of engineering, construction and mining related labour costs in Nova Scotia. “These data and assumptions yield an estimate ofthe cost of mine development of $23.4 million CDN, which include a profit before taxes allowance for companies that may be ‘onfraced by the proponent to pacticjpate fn mine development * Athos of writing Ali Gold has yet to respond to equss fr infomaton hat go Beyond tat whichis contained in the 2018 projet deseipon and the ane 219 carport reset, >The AISC metre inde othr expenses beyond min peraing cot sch x general ofc spending nd capital wed in mine dvelopment and peducon,Iseves as a benchmark of company's operating eTseny 3, ast eve, er nit of ouput They inl anspor retning ad ot tthe site evel (suas ea fe cos) andana The exhibit below, Gross Impact of Cochrane Hil Mine Dovelooment (ital Year ($milions, 20198), shows the direct, indirect and indeed economic impacts as ealeulated by Jozsa Management ‘and Economies’ proprietary interregional input-output impact model, Sap of Cons Gas Dope pal Wao, coPaanater Tosco Tar ce | ts comme Ort | pas fre ste rane | aon ‘or eons "she eres | lesa on ETH ce a a Rests 19 ets as [sane om ec a [or sacdmaune sana ‘Mine development will eeate about 91 dlitet jobs, Each direct job wil pay [Wine Developement lal Your) nee and induced abs Tn| about $84,522, not including Nova Seti by Sector supplementary labour income, for 2,132 Toasandd | ha hours of work. Mine development is Sect sos come pr per Wok assumed to operate onthe same 12-hour [SpadimaPose sino] a3 ‘workday, four days on and four days off [Fass aon ssn] ae ass proposed forthe operation of the [ss tga gia sean} ae sine, Siget ich tr Agave wParam — 04 |§ sae] 57 fubrg dO odGs Ewe [saa] About 92 indirect and induced jobs will [ame [sae be created throughout Nova Scotia. The [amston ‘zni| aa exhibit, right, Mine Development (nial MEE Sa ‘Yeo Indect and induced Jobs in Nove sia rie pet pastas smi [a ‘Scola by Soctor, shows the breakdown of Hrsmpra wa Wao i spinofT jobs by economic sector and the [aban Graber a EO houschold income eamed perjob in [nsx Reese ase [ a cach ofthe sectors Prk Sct cssoTSu_ | —75|8 brass] ant Sor, Weibllg 6 Renal —a7[ 58 sista] 78 Because development costs have been [Eastn Saves [ssa — a7 fiont and loaded to alow for inal shana aval es mine development diect and spinoft |. Eabteste exe pele impacts due to capital maintenance and PRERESREENSE SE pf capital replacement in succeeding years [TenPratrenere Sevrg ase — cof operation will amount to about 40% [Ga S of those experienced during the initial [Ta A) Pincers we Toa Yous TOU NGSS HS DAETD Te as ctnbl decent tetas eaves zak one Sede oe OO sto Save nua Manaaameat A sono Fy dopudvusave & Foca SU Ascites year of mine developmentzonal np Analysis Proposed Cochran il Gold Mine ais 3,2. MINE OPERATION ECONOMIC IMPACTS. ‘Because the Touquoy processing facility will be wed for final processing, we have reduced the Cash Cost per oz of gold production by 20% from $558 CDN per oz fo $446.40 CDN per ‘ounce of gold production, We assume that 1/6 of the estimated 607,000 ounces of gold reserves willbe mined during each ofthe six yeas of operation “These assumptions yield a eash operating cost per year atthe Cochrane ill mine ste of| about $45.16 million CDN. With the addition ofan assumption for a modest operating gross ‘margin before taxes, the total economic input cost foreach operating year amounts To about {865.77 million CDN. ‘The exhibit below, Goss impact of ochvane Hil Mine Operations Annual ($millon, 20198), shows the annual direct, indirect and indueed operations economic impacts as calevlated by Jozsa ‘Management and Economics’ proprietary inter-regional input-output impact model npc Gotan dn Cpanel a 7 eaten rasa Tears me oa saa 5 wi] is ase a son 7a sa Mine operations will create about 220 direct jobs and each direct job will pay about $84,522, rot including supplementary labour income, for 2,132 hours of work. About 110 persons wil ‘work onsite each day with each shift of $5 persons working 12-hour day. ‘Total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at market prices will amount to about $72.12 milion during each operating year, of which about $18.59 million will accrue as household income (not inluding supplementary labour income (i. beni) 2 doulas & Foowcucs Dm pssstAbout 193 indirect and induced jobs willbe ‘read throughout Nova Scotia. The ‘exhibit, right, Mine Operations indirect and Induood Jobs in Nova Seota by Sector (Annual, shows the breakdown of spinoff jobs by ‘economic sector andthe household income ‘eared per job in each sector. About 193 jobs willbe ereted by spinofT elfets during each operating year, at about ‘$44.3 thousand per average work year based. ‘on an average workweek of 37.0 hour dom iiwasneow 8 Foonoucs DU Asoias2019 3.3 MINE RECLAMATION IMPACTS ‘According tothe project description at closure, al facilites willbe removed, disturbed lands ‘rehabilitated, and the property relumed to otherwise functional use according fo approved reclamation plans, accepted practices atthe time of closure, and in accordance withthe general wishes of the community and Mikmag regarding final land us. ‘The cost of reclamation was estimated based on our assumption thatthe Fooyprint of the mine ‘would be returned to «condition funetionally equivalent fo current conditions atthe proposed se, We used the publication “Guidance For Estimating Reclamation Costs For Pat 3 - Minimal Impact Exploration And Minimal Impact Mining And Part 4 ~ Regular Exploration Permit Applications” published by the New Mexico Department of Mines to estimate the cost of retuming the mine ste to the functional equivalent of its current conditions, ‘The coats asume that all surfce disturbances will be reclaimed via re-grading, backfilling, reseeding and replanting 2s necessary. Reclamation includes: + the removal of al cilities: ‘+ the treatment of dil pts, access roads, borrow areas, drainage crossings, culvert, femoval, compacted overland routes, potential runoff; and + the disposal of all wastes associated with the mine exploration, development, operation and reclamation activites, ‘The costs als include includes 4094 add-on to cover the indirect costs, ‘Based on the information contained in the above noted document te cost in 20198 CDN is assumed to be about $21,456 per hectare ‘The mine’ fotprint will cover 241 hectares and therefore the total cost of reclamation is assumed to be about $5.17 million CDN (20198), 2 slasalMinasndc 8 EooNcstcs DM Assxiasais zonal pat Analy Proposed Cochrane il Gold ‘The exhibit below, Goss Inpaetof Cochrane Goll Mine Reclamation (1 to 31. millons, 20196), shows the annual dite, ndiret and induced reclamation esonomie impacts as caleulted by Jozsa Management and Economics’ proprietary inter-regional input-output impact model. The impacts will occur over a period of one to three years depending on the ‘ale al which the reclamation can be competed “ies ng of Geevare Gos eclnaton 163 Vg lone ToPgilsta Pion Ta [oor has wy wah esi a Soa |s—= 7 it Total Nova Scotia Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at market prices will amount to about {$6.75 nillion, of whieh about $2.07 millon will accrue as household income (not including supplementary labour income (Le. benefits). Reclamation wil ereate about 35.1 direct jobs in Nova Scotia Exch direct job will py about '859,019, not including supplementary labour income, for 2,206 hours of work. Dt pasosEzcnamic ipa Analysis P About 295 indiret and induced jobs ‘will be erated throughout Nova Scotia. The exhibit, ight, Mine ‘Reclamation Irect and Indueed Jobs in Nova Sota by Sedo, shows the breakdown of spinoff jobs by economic sector andthe household ‘income eamed per jab in each sector. ‘ihe average spintt job wall provide household income of about $44.2 thousand, not including benefits, for an average work year of about 2,002, hours. 2019 4 | ame ria [per Wisk Ta[¢_—_ssa] a 7a]$——as| — ae san | — a seadTouy | —a2]$ sos] ar o]$—aley| — a a2] ase] ae as ]¢ ae] aie a | §——ss'| 48 [$s] er ars assy] az 5s as] ats senses est a[s si |e eros Sart PtesnT5z | —s [5 wa | 0 Prana Supat visa ereswassn | —co|s suru | sa Farsi Soe urs | str ia re TE 22]$ ars] — i, rite arf § aa] ats Desens sa} Aigo | ote Sones pas aimraroy | Ta] Petters Sag esas | — ass [Somewsee iets er aa A aS ave Ta ua Mansa A Ea Pectonbanangzcatatht crys) AasEconomie pat Ans, Propostd Cochrane Hil Gold Mine au 3.4 EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS FOR ST. MARY'S RESIDENTS Employment impacts ofthe mine wil stem from the ‘+ development ofthe mine, whic is scheduled to ake sbout ane year; ‘operation ofthe mine, with an expected life of about six years and ‘+ reclamation of the mine site, expected to take from one to three years + diet job impacts are assumed tobe fll-time equivalent jobs. Spinoff job impacts are assumed to cover about 1,907 hours on average per ye ‘oF plea falltine job. 3.44 Mine DeveLopmeNT “Mine devetopment will create about ‘+ 91 direct jobs each of which will pay about $84,522, not including supplementary labour income, for 2,132 hours of work; and ‘+92 indirect and induced jobs throughout Nova Scotia Allof the job impacts oceur only during the mine development period, 344.1 GaxPrurie Dinecr Jons FROM MINE DEVELOPMENT “Most development direct jobs will be construction type jobs (tds, transport and equipment ‘operator Experionced trades and transport and equipment operator labour inthe Municipality declined significantly from 2006 to 2016, The large declines suggest that local residents are to gain employment during mine development there will need to be skills upgrading and traning programs, ‘ased on employment rate in the Municipality only about $0 to 60 experienced construction related labour trades, transport and equipment operator personnel may be available for employment during mine development. Iti highly unlikely that all available experienced Inbour, regardless of training, will be hired for the development ofthe mine if for no other reason than even with taining the skill set might nt meet certain specialized needs. Moreover, a large percentage ofthe experienced labour is 65 yeas old and older. A good portion ofthese people might nt be willing or physically able to undertake the type of work needed to develop the mine. The capture of direct mine development jobs could be enhanced ifthe project proponent is, willing ‘+ to engage in skills upgrading programs for local labour, and ‘to ereate bid packages that can be effecsively bid upon by lea firms. Residents ofthe Municipality might capture, at most,20% of the direct mine development jobs 3.41.2 CAPTURNG SPINOFF JoBs FROM MINE DEVELOPMENT ‘About 92 indirect and induced jobs will be ereated throughout Nova Seotia by the development ofthe mine ‘Assuming that no special efforts are made by the proponent to purchase goods and services = vos Mascenent &Eeonaics Om Ascitescanal ips Anais, Proposed Cochrane Hl God Mine au locally and given: ‘+ the very small and narrow economic base of St. Mary's, compared the rest af Nova ‘Scotia; and + the economic sectors that will be most affected by spinoff jobs, St Mary's can expect to capture 1% to 4% of the spinoff activity. Moreover, most ofthe captured spinoff activity will take the form of inereases inthe number ‘of workweeks in existing jobs from the current average of about 35 weeks per year ‘The capture of spinoff mine development jobs could be enhanced i the projeet proponent is willing: ‘+ {0 contract-out elements of mine developments and + to reate bid packages that can be effectively bid upon by foal fms. 3.4.2. MINE OPERATIONS Mine operations will crete, during each operating year, about: + 220 direct fulltime jobs in Nova Soot; and +193 spinoff jobs in Nova Scotia, 3.42.1 CAPTURWG DIRECT JoBs FROM Mine OPERATIONS “Mine operations will ereate about 220 direct jobs and each direct job will pay about $84,522, not including supplementary labour income, for 2,132 hours of work. Most operations jobs will require the job skills associated with: ‘skilled tades person; ‘transport and equipment operators & related jo ‘+ mining, natural resources; agriculture & related production jobs; and 4+ manuficturing related jobs Experienced workers in these occupations declined significantly from 2006 to 2016 ‘The large dectnes suggests that if local residents ae to gain employment during mine ‘operations there will need to be skills upgrading and taining programs. Given estimates of curent employment, about 120 experienced workers in these occupations inthe Municipality may be available for employment atthe mine. Some operations jobs could be filled by carrying aver some workers from the mie development phase. Itishighly unlikely that all available experienced labour, regatdless of training, willbe hired forthe operation ofthe mine if for no other reason than even with tuning the available skill sets might not meet certain specialized needs. Moreover, a lage percentage of the experiened labour is 65 years old and older. A good portion ofthese people might not be \illing or physically able to undertake the type of work needed to operate the mine. ‘The capture of diect mine operations jobs could be enhanced ithe project proponent i willing: + to engage in skills upgrading programs fr local Iabou, and ‘+ tocreate bid packages for goods and services used by the mine that can be effectively bid upon by loca! fms. Residents may be abe to capture, at most, 30% ofthe direct operations jobs. 7 Aomuliowcnsen 8 Eoowcucs JD Assiszonal npst Arle, Popased Cora Hil Glé Mine 0 34.2.2 CAPTURNG SPAVOFF JOBS FROM Mine OPERATIONS About 193 inditect and induced jobs willbe created throughout Nova Seotia by the operation ‘of the mine. “Assuming that no special efforts are made by the proponent to purchase goods and services locally and given: ‘+ the very small and natrow economic base of St. Mary's, compared to the rest of Nova Sota; and «+ thecennmie sectors that will he most affected by spinof jobs, ‘Si. Mary’s ean expeet to capture 1% to 4% ofthe spinoff activity. ‘Moreover, most ofthe captured spinoff activity will tke the form of inereases in the number ‘of workweeks in existing jobs from the eurrent average of about 35 weeks per year. "The capture of spinof mine operation jobs could be enhanced ithe projet proponent is willing: ‘+ {0 contt-out elements of mine operation; and + to reate bid packages that can be effectively bid upon by local fms. 3.4.3 MINE RECLAMATION “Mine reclamation will eeate about: ‘+35 dirve fulltime equivalent obs; and + 30 spinoff jobs throughout Nova Scotia, All of the job impacts occur only during mine reclamation. If reclamation takes longer than fone year, he job impacts wil be spread over the extended reclamation. For example, reclamation extends over two years then in each year 17 to 18 direc jobs would be ereated and about 15 spinoff jobs would be created, 3.43.1 CAPTURING DIRECT JoBs FROM MINE RECLAMATION “Most reclamation jobs will require skills associated with trades persons, teanspost and ‘equipment operators & related occupations and natural resources and agriculture & related production ccupations. Experienced workers in these occupations declined significantly from 2006 to 2016 ‘The lage declines suggests that iFlocal residents are to gain employment during mine ‘reclamation there will need tobe sills upgrading and taining programs. Given estimates of eurent employment, bout 100 experienced workers in these occupations inthe Manieipality may he aailahle for employment during mine eelamation However, i local residents capture some ofthe direct operations jobs they may be caried over to participate in mine reclamation, Residents may be able to capture up to 40% of te direct reclamation jobs. 28 sos Manone Eoovcscs OM AscitesEconomie nse Ass, Proposed Cochrane Hi Gold ine au 343.2 CAPTURNG SPHOFF JOBS FROW MINE RECLAMATION About 30 indirect and induced jobs will be ereated throughout Nova Seotia by the reclamation ofthe mine. Assuming that no special efforts are made by the proponent to purchase goods and set locally and given ‘+ the very small and narrow economic base of St. Mary’, compared to the rest of Nova Scotia and + the economic sectors that will he most affected by spina jobs, St Mary's can expect to capture 1% 10 4% ofthe spinoff activity. Moreover, most of the captured spinoff activity will take the form of increases inthe number ‘of workweek in existing jobs from the current average of about 35 weeks per year. ‘The capture of spinoff mine reclamation jobs could be enhanced ifthe project proponent is willing ‘+ to conttat-out elements of mine reclamation; and + to crate bid packages that canbe efectively bid upon by local firms 3.5 POPULATION IMPACTS “The impacts on St, Mary's population will be very limited for the following reasons ‘+All jos (direct and spinoff) created by the Cochrane Hill gold mine project will be temporary because the projet has atta ieeyele of about seven years (or up to nine years if reclamation takes thre yeats instead of one) + People from outside St, Mary's ate used fo commuting inta St, Mary's for work. Over 20% of workers in St. Marys are ftom locations outside of the Municipality. Othe 200%, almost 30% come from the Guysborough Municipal District; and almost 60% ‘come from the Pictou and Antigonish Census Divisions. + Almost all ofthe spinoff activity eaptured by St. Mary's will be absorbed by inreased productivity among curtent workers and inereasing the average weeks worked towards ‘or beyond the Nova Scotia average. ‘The very large supply of secondary residences in St. Mary's suggests that some workers from Dus the local area may beable to rent accommodations forthe duration ofthe projet, thus having only a temporary effect on population, Itmay be possible to increase the numberof permanent residents ifthe Municipality would take itupon itself to identify former residents who have moved away for work and who may be able fo compete for obs atthe mine. ecause of thelr personal connection tothe “Municipality may be willing to take the tsk of moving back to St Mary's eventhough jobs atthe mine will only lst fom 7 to 9 years 2 sdauMwaonanr a feovcxecs OUAsscies2019 3.6 RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE IMPACTS ‘The impacts on the value of eurent propestes will stem mainly from the following factors: noise, dus, project and ‘subjective perceptions ofthe effect of the mine of the peaceful use of eurent properties. Results ofthe nose, dust, light pollution, traffic and view plane studies are no yet available hence no conclusions ean be drawn at this time regarding impacts on current property values 3 pollution and traffic generated by the project and view planes into the ‘The impacts on the potential for new residential property investment wil stem from the same factors, ‘The attraction of new seeondary residence properties could be significantly affected because the mere existence ofa mine may dissuade people seeking to build a cottage or seeond home. ‘On the other hand, because ofthe prospects for new employment in the Municipality ‘property values might be positively affected by people seeking to locate closer to the prospects for employment ‘The effects, negative and positive, wil be extremely + site specific (based on the extent to which nose, dust, light pollation, tafe and visibility of the mine are present a specific location); and + buyer specifi (or example, workers a the mine could bring positive impacts to propesty value ithey ate looking to locate closer to their employment while potential buyers looking fr retirement or recreational propectics might price down potential retirement or rereational properties due to actual or suspected impacts ofthe mine on ‘the local environmen). 3.7 MUNICIPAL TAXATION IMPACTS. All commercial municipal tax revere effects willbe temporary because the project has a finite lifecyele During operations the project willbe subject to commercial assessment ‘One the site is reclaimed it wil key be assessed as at present. ‘The project, ike all commercial properties, will be assessed asthe sum of land and constuction costs (not including machinery and equipment. “The cost to develop the mind is estimated at $23.44 milion. The input — output analysis rovides a reatonshle breakdown ofthe goods ad services and labour needed to develop the ‘mine. Once the value of mechinery and equipment and the labour associated with installing the machinery and equipment are deducted from the total cos its reasonable to assume that the assessed commercial value wil be about $14,550,315 (2019S). Based on this assessed value and the commercial tax rate fr 2019 tax revenue, per operating yea, will be about $328,837, Deiails ofthe components ofthe mine anl their cost have not yet been provided to the consultants. Once they become available, a more accurate estimate of municipal tax revenue can be produced. daadiauaseon 8 Eocoucs SU AssociatesEconomie pact Anais 3.8 EFFECTS ON PUBLIC ROADS AND SAFETY “The proponents trafic study was not complete atthe time of writing, The following trafic estimates are based on the project description of September 2018 ‘+ Ore concentrate will be shipped to Moose River for final processing via eight axel C Train trucks carrying a maximum load of, 8.5 tons, Six round trips will be made per day traveling south on Highway 7 ‘+ Alot deck truck, carrying a maximum load of five tons will make one round-tip per ‘week traveling south on Hishway 7 + Miscellaneous commercial afc will amount to about 12 round tips per day + Employee traffic will amount to about 110 round trips per da. (Overall, there will be about 128 (7 truck, 121 passenger and small commereial) vehicle rouncktips per day associated withthe operation of the min. Assuming that about 50% of the passenger and small commercial vehicle traffic comes from the North the average annual daily traffic (ADT) on the section of Highway 7 between the mine site and Sherbrooke wil rise to about 1,045 from the curent 910 AAD, Of the 135 inerease in ADT about 12 will, be eight axel C Train trucks and the remainder will be passenger and small commercial vehicles. Virtually ll vehicle trips will use all season, all weather Provincial highways. Preliminary analysis indicates that Highway 7 in St. Marys ha suicient capacity and capability to handle increased trafic without abnormal impacts on road conditions or adverse effets on public safety. The consultants requested but did not receive information from ‘Transportation and Inftastructare Renewal Nova Scotia regarding ‘the realignment ofa section of Highway 7 near the mine worksite; + safety implications ofthe realignment ofa section of Highway 7 near the mine worksite; + effects of mine related traffic on the condition and safety of provincial highways; and ‘+ potential ned for location specific changes to Highway 7 inthe Municipality needed to safely handle eight axel truck trafic. 3.9. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT 3.9.1. POTENTIAL INPACTS ON CURRENT BUSINESSES. Consideration ofthe impact ofthe proposed Cochrane Hill Gold Mine on current businesses inthe Municipality involved a review af loal businesses as listed inthe business directory ‘on the Municipality's web sit. "Bach business was considered individually with respect othe services/goods they provide tnd the potential opportunites, as knowin, projected, or assumed based on information provided by the mine proponent in the project description. Many questions concerning the project’ possible goods and services requirements forthe proposed development were eft "unanswered by the proponent. In these eases, potential supplier opportunities forthe three phases ofthe project have been identified based on the information available and ‘consideration of similar projets. Local businesses considered as possible suppliers and the resulting impact on their businesses have been assessed. Until the proponents final ‘development plans are known the full scope of potential and real businesses opportunities " domalMnacnae 8 Eoovcsscs DM Anaszones impact Analysis, Proposed Cran il Glé Mie ag will remain unconfirmed, ‘Businesses and organizations inthe Municipality were grouped in seven general categories: ‘retail, + commercialindustral; 4 hospitality ‘accommodations; personal and business services; primarily tourism oriented; and other “The St. Mary's Business Directory lists 56 businesses and organizations. The consultants assigned each of them to 8 major eategory based on their core activity. In some cases, one business might have two or more core activities (or example, motel and restaurant) and sueh ‘business would be recorded in two of the major etegories, Each company within the main categories was reviewed with respect to the likelihood that they could provided one of more ofthe anticipated services or goods required by the proposed mine project. The impact on sals/business activity was then considered on a seale of 1-5 with: iicating a potential major positive impact; ‘+ 2 indicating a minor positive impact, + indicating no impact; ‘© 4 indicating a minor negative impact; and ‘+ Sindieatng «potential major nogative impact. “The practical meanings ofthe impact eategores areas follows: ‘+L -major positive impact, the company would significantly inereas sales, employment and likely equite capital expansion and investment as result of business received from the mine project; ‘+ 2 minor postive impact, sales and business activity would inerease but the increase ‘would likely be absorbed within the curent company structure with no increase in «employees or capital investment; ‘+ 2-n0 impact, there would be very little or no impact on the business’ operation; + -minor negative impact, the business could be negatively impacted by some phase of the mine projet and salesbusiness activity would decline but not significantly; and ‘+ 5-major negative impact, the operations business saesfctvity could decline significantly requiring staf layoff and threatening future growth or the very existence of the organisation Category impact ratings areas follows (the number in brackets represents the numberof ‘companies/organizations inthis eategory) ‘+ Retail (7) minor positive impact. ‘+ CommereialVindustral(17)~minor positive impact to no impact (some companies such 1s construction, demolition and trucking could see major positive impacts). + Hospitality @2)~minor positive impact ‘+ Accommodations (7) -no impact (ne) to minor negative impact (potential inerease in sales due to project operations potentially offset to some degree by a loss of tourism 2 dopa Mawscndew 8 Eoovcyscs JOM AssosEconomie hac Ansys, Propose Co rane il Gad Mine auto visitors) ‘+ Personal and Business Service (12) - minor positive impact to no impact ‘Tourism (7)-minor negative impact to major negative impact (total of 16 when hospitality and accommodation included). + Other (8) ~ no impact to major negative impact “The potential positive impacts on existing businesses would be increased i the proponent is willing: ‘to contrat out for goods and services; and ‘to seal the bid packages so thatthe relatively small businesses in the Municipality are able to cost-effectively bid on the contact. bid packages are tobe sale so that local businesses can effectively bid on the contacts will be necessary forthe proponent to make special efforts to describe the goods and service needs of the mine snd to meet with local businesses to understand their eapacites to provide ‘Boods and services. 3.9.4.1. IMPKCTSON CURRENT BUSNESSES - SUMIKARY ‘The proposed Cochrane Hill project has the potential to have a net minor positive impact on ‘existing businesses in the Municipality The increase in business activity wil likely be absorbed within the existing business infasteueture. Given the short life ofthe projects unlikely that local businesses will undertake any addition capital investment or new hiting. ‘Some businesses and organisations will fce the potential for significant negative impacts on their operations, Information tha is more detailed is required to determine how goods and serves fr the projest willbe tendered and ileal companies wil be pat ofthe process. If or whatever reason they re excluded the local positive economic impact on businesses will be significantly reduced, ‘The business and organizations with the most potential o gain from the mine project include trucking, electrical, fuel, mechanical, building supply, excavating, some administrative and personal services. ‘The business and organizations with the highest rsk and potentially the mos to lose ate those in the tourism and recreation sector, particularly those that are closely aligned with the recreational use of the St, Mary's River 3.9.2. POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR NEW BUSINESSES ‘The mine proponent in the project summary identifies several activities that could generate new business operations if they are contracted out From information curently available, it would appear that potential new business ‘opportunities could be available in the following areas: + consttuetion/demolition; heavy trucking; security: fuel servicing and storages truck and vehicle maintenance; private road maintenance; snow clearances domaniowene & foowaiscs DU AssociatesEzonamic pat Analysis Proposed Cochrane il Gld Mine a9 + office administration support services; physiotherapy and related personal heath are services staf raining for operations and safety; driver training; and “Small Support Fleet” operations (mentioned but not defined in projest summary). “The extent to which new businesses be created depends largely on the proponent’s willingness: ‘+t contract out for goods and services; and {to see the bid packages o tat they are within the grass of new business start-ups. 3.92.1 OpporTuutTis FoR New BUSNESSES - SUIMARY Based on the information provided inthe proponent’ project description it doesnot appear ‘that th operation ofthe mine would support significant, sustainable new business creation. “The proponent’ project plan, subject to interpretation, identifies the need for heavy trucking, ‘ck drivers, a “small support fleet, security services, explosives supply and management, fuel servicing and storage, tuck and vehicle maintenance, road maintenance, snow clearince and office administration, and by implication general construction and demolition. Based on {the curent project description it appears that most ofthese requirements willbe provided in- house Heavy tuck hating, explosive servicing and fuel delivery and general construction and demolition may be contracted out. This however has yet fo be confirmed, Existing suppliers and contractors currently supporting the proponents other mine opera in Nova Scotia could absorb most oral of the equired goods and services and additional ‘operational requirements For Cochrane Hil, 3.10 Impacts ON TOURISM Itis estimated that tourism revenues were $2.6 billion in 2016. Approximately 5% of Nova ‘Scotians are employed inthe Tourism industry. The tourism GDP is larger than three of Nova ‘Scotia's primary industries combined, mining, agriculture and forestry. Non-residents vistors inject new money into the economy with postive spin off benefits. Tourism Nova Seota has sot an industry goal to earn $4 billion in tourism revenues by 2024. “The St, Mary’s community has an opportunity to share in these tourism expansion plans. “The 2015 Nova Scotia Visitor Ext Survey reported that the top reasons for visting Nova Scotia are “the scenery and natural landscapes” and visiting “the seaconst and ocean”. The presence of an open pt gold mine and related activity including truck traffic could have @ Significant negative impact on the Muniipalitys ability to maintain existing tourist stractions and develop new ateations that would attract more tourists and lengthen the stay ‘ofall ours, “The activities of the St. Marys River Association support the development ofthe St. Mary's River asa recreation and tourism destination. The organisation, thew its ability to obiain ‘rants and funding, is an effective social enterprise anda generator of economic activity. Its cutrent initiatives nthe groundwork for: w dopalivacnve 8 Eoovouecs Du Assoszonal pat Anal, Proposed Cachan Gold Mae 2m ‘the return ofthe potentially lucrative salmon sport fishery; and + eahancement ofthe tourism and local recreation draws associated with eanoeing and kayaking. Tourism isan enabler. Tourism can stimulate industry growth in a number of sectors including beverage and alcohol, constuction, retail and restaurants, transportation, new business investment, entrepreneurship and innovation. Interaction with the tourism sector is often the first contact of potential investors, ‘The 2015 Nova Scotia Visitor Fxit Survey identifies three main categories of vistors: people visiting for pleasute, people visiting for business reasons and people visiting friends and relatives. People visting fiends and relatives will eontnue to flow into Nova Seotia almost regardless ofthe quality and number of ts tourism atrations. However, this group of tourists is barely growing in number, The real growth isin people visiting for pleasure and Visitors are most strongly influenced by the type of tourism atteuctic quality of those attractions. 3.40.1 Tourism ASSETS IN ST, MARY'S Ifthe Municipality wishes to capture a larger share ofthe rapidly growing volume of first- time visitors and pleasure visitors it will ned to protect and develop tourism related tributes that are most valued by these types of visitors. As the most recent visitor exit survey shows these groups of visitors are mos influenced by the prospects of enjoying the scenery and natural landscapes, visiting the seacoast and participating in ocean related activities. Any diminishment inthe quality of these types of tourism assets will hamper the “Municipality's ability ro capture a larger share ofthe mos rapidly growing tourism markets. 3.10.11 SOME SIGNIFICANT TOURISM AND ECONOMIC ASSETS NST. MARY'S The St. Mary's region has a numberof seasonal and some year-round tourist attractions, The Municipality has some key tourism assets that are mainstays for the tourism sector. These tourism assets and new ones in the final planning stages have the potential to inerease the area's capture of the fastest growing tours traveller segments. S40.44.4 SieRanooKe VuLaGe Museu Sherbrooke Village isa well-established venue and major attraction, popular with locals and visitors alike, celebrating its 0th anniversary next year. The site provides employment and ‘many spin-off benefits forthe local economy. Is the largest museum in Nova Seotia and has ‘en viilor gmwth in ment years It now weleames aver 6,000 vistors per ants ‘Management ofthe Sherbrooke Village Museum estimates that the museum is responsible or tourism revenues in excess of $13 million per year in the Municipality. This estimate does ‘not consider adltional spin-off effects of salary infusions into the local economy. ‘Sherbrooke Village is leading @ new, groundbreaking initiative forming RICHES (the Rural Insitute for Cultural Heritage and Environmental Sustainability) which will help to grow {oursm locally and to make a major on-going contribution to tourism training for the entre province, The Institute will be located on land held by Sherbrook Village, which coincidentally i located next to the proposed Cochrane Hill gold mine site. RICHES is, st time intemational visitors. These available andthe 38 so Maeno 8 Eecncncs OM Assocs1 Cochrane Gol 2019 planned for launch in 2020, 340442 Tet. Manv'sRiveR ‘The St. Mary's River combined with the region's natural beauty represents afourism asset that is most sought after by pleasure visitors from the rest of Canada and first-time intomational vistors. The St. Mary's River is one of two original, celebrated, salmon angling and sport fishing venues in Nova Scotia. Significant progress has been made over recent years on habitat restoration in and around the river. Over $1 millon has been Invested wo date and another $1.2 millon wil be invested over the next three years. New Brunswick saw an estimated $26 million in revenue from the recreational salmon fishery in 2010. By improving the quality of the St. Mary's River for salmon angling the Municipality will put itself in a stronger postion ‘to capture the economic henefits associated with the recreational salmon fishery. ‘The value in protecting and rehabilitating the St, Mary's River goes beyond the eeonomic value associated with recreational salmon angling. The rehabilitation ofthe St. Mary's River is increasing the value of a tourism asset that is highly valued by the more rapidly growing, segments ofthe tourism market. 340:14.3 SeasonaL Lano Omens ‘There are about 200 non-resident landowners in the Municipality. The seasonal residents ave an important component ofthe tourism sector. It has been estimated the investment in secondary residences in the municipality amounts to over $40 million in property to date. ‘Based on current trends 4 t 6 seasonal homes are being bull per year. Seasonal residents contribute to municipal tax revenues and to the maintenance of local businesses. "New construction by seasonal residents amounts to about $1.0 million per year while at the ‘same time inteasing the municipal tax base. Te perception of negative impacts associated with the establishment of an open pit mine could reduce the rate of growth in the tax base du (othe construction of seasonal residences. 3.40.2 THE FUTURE FoR ST. MARY'S TOURISM. ‘he nature and quality ofthe tourism assets inthe Municipality that are most attractive tothe fastest growing segments of the tourism market suggests that tourism in the municipality has significant room to grov. The Municipality offers what pleasure tourist visitor and first time {ntemational vistors say they are looking for. Traditional attractions, led by the Sherbrooke Village Museum and othe cultural, historic and outdoor recreational offerings, round out the package [Extrome care must be taken to ensure that the operation ofthe gold mine doesnot have @ negative impact on the tourism assets most valued by the most rapidly growing segments of the tourism market 3.10.2 POTENTIAL IuPACTS ON LOCAL TOURISM ASSETS BY THE COCHRANE HILL MINE PROJECT ‘The proposed Cochrane Hill Open Pit Mine Project i a potential threat othe eurent sustainability and future growth ofthe tourism sector inthe Municipality. “The potential threat comes in several forms % doruniwasnecu & owas JOM Aseanzonal pat Analy Pro ‘+ Mine operations could be the soure of light, dst and noise pollution, + Contsinments used inthe mining process could get nto the waterways including the St Mary’s River. + Regular scheduled large tandem ore trucks on the main shore highway may diseourage tourists ‘+ The mere existence ofan open pt mine is operating inthe area could act asa Aisincentive for tourists and potential seasonal residents. 3.14 PoTENTIAL Lecacy PROJECTS (On completion of major projets such asthe Cochrane Hill Gold Ming, ithas become ‘common for communities to require investment by the project proponent in “legacy projects’ that help compensate the local community for its absorption of negative impacts associated with large projects 3.11.1 Legacy PROJECTS SUPPORTED BY THE MINE PROPONENT Proponents may leave project specific redundant equipment, buildings or other assets tothe community, ‘The community ean propose « plan for redevelopment ofall or part ofthe former work site into a venue for community use (e-. parkland, community recreation area, et.) ‘The community can propose a legucy project’ that is completely removed from the development site as a special “gif tothe community in retum for hosting the development project (a gold mining interpretive cent, a seniors’ centre, a community meeting and Feereation centre, et.) 3.11.2LEGACY PROJECTS SUPPORTED BY PROVINCIAL ROYALTIES ON MINERAL PRODUCTION Legacy projects are often sponsored by senior levels of government to help compensate municipalities for their absorption of negative impacts that ean be associated with lange mineral extraction projects. Municipalities do not receive direct financial benefits that stem from land based resource ‘extraction royalties paid to a Provincial Govemment. However it snot uncommon for municipalities to successfully petition provincial _Bovemments to sponsordevelop legacy project(s) that are inditetly funded from provincial royalties In Nova Scotia royalties related to gold-mining ae charged at 1% ofthe net value received by the gold produce. The nt value is calculated approximately as follows. The foal revenue ceamed by the gold producer is reduced by the value of operating costs, depreciation and ‘municipal taxes Alantie Gold's corporate presentation of June 2019 states that its average gold margin per ‘ounce is $969 CDN after cash cost of operation. Assuming that/6 of the gold reserves are ‘mined each year of operation the annual gold margin willbe about $98,030,500. After a 30%

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