semivariograma/ covariance modeling is a key step between spatial descripcion and spatial

predictio. the main application of geostadistics is the prediction of attribute values at unsampled
locations (kriging).

the empirical semivariogram and covariance provide information on the spatial autocorrelation of
datasets. however, they do not provide information for all possible directions and distance. for this
reason and to ensure that kriging predictions have positive kriging variances, it is necessary to fit a
model(in other words, a continuous function or curve) to the empirical semivariogram/covariance.

different views of the empirical semivariogram/covariance values.

the geoestadistics wizard provides three different views of the empirical semivariogram values.
you can use one, two or all three of them to aid you in fitting a model to the data. the default view
shows binned and average empirical semivariogram/covariance values.

binned values are shown as red dots, and are generated by grouping (binning) empirical
semivariogram/covariance points together using square cells that are one lag wide. Average points
are shown as blue crosses, and are generated by binning empirical semivariogram/covariance
points that fall within angular sectors. Binned points shows local variation in the
semivariogram/covariance values, whereas average values show smooth
semivariogram/covariance value variation. In many cases it is easier to fit a model to the average
values, as they offer a less cluttered view of the spatial autocorrelation in the data and show
smoother changes in the semivariogram values than the binned points.

The show points control can be set to binned and averaged (as shown in the figure above), binned,
or averaged (as show in the figures below).

Additionally, lines can be added to the plot. The lines are local polynomials fitted to the binned
empirical semivariogram/covariance values. If the show search direction option is set to true, then
only the local polynomial fitted to the empirical semivariogram/covariance surface in the show
search direction tool´s central axis transect is displayed, as shown in the following figure:

The semivariogram/covariance model you fit to the empirical data should:

Pass through the center of the cloud of binned values (red dots).

Pass as closely as possible to the average values (blue crosses).

Pass as closely as possible to the lines (green lines).

Keep in mind that your knowledge of the phenomenon may dictate the shape of the model as well
as its nugget, range and partial sill and anisotropy values, even though the model does not fit the
empirical data too well (recall that the empirical data is just a sample of the real phenomenon you
want to model, anda may not be fully representative of all of its spatial and stadistical aspects).

Different types of semivariogram/covariance models

Geoestadistical analyst provides the following function to model the empirical semivariogram:

Circular

Spherical

Tetraspherical

Exponential

Gaussian

Stable

The selected model influences the prediction of the unknown values, particularly when the shape
of the curve near the origin differs significantly. The steeper the curve near the origin, the more
influence the closest neighbors will have on the prediction.

As a result, the output surface will be less smooth each model is designed to fit different types of
phenomena more accurately.

The diagrams below show two common models (exponential and Gaussian) and identify how the
functions differ