MNCL DAILY COMMODITY MARKET RADAR

16-Dec-2019
Market Outlook
Gold surprisingly strengthens even after Trump administration announces phase-1 deal with China

• Crude Oil prices hit three-month highs on Friday, after President Trump announced a phase-1 China trade deal thus boosting the demand for the
riskier assets. We expect crude oil to trade with a bullish sentiment during today’s session

• Gold prices recovered from the lows even after Trump administration announced the phase-1 deal with China, suggesting that investors are yet to
be convinced that the problems between US and China are over for good. We expect some profit booking in bullions during today’s session

• Base metals pack lost all the early gains and closed the week on a negative note as investors took the opportunity to nook profits after President
Trump announced the phase-1 deal with China along with confirming that negotiations on phase-2 deal has already started. We expect base
metals to trade sideways during today’s session

CHART OF THE DAY

MCX – Lead (2 Hr.) Chart
Strategy:
Recommendation Buy around
Price: 151.50
Target: 153-155
Stop loss: 149.5
Analysis:
• Looking at the short-term chart of Lead, we can
see prices trading near the support

• We expect upside during today’s trading sessions;

one can go long around the mentioned levels with
intraday trading horizon

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 MNCL DAILY COMMODITY MARKET RADAR
16-Dec-2019
MARKET MOVEMENT
International Exchange Expiry Open Close High Low Change Daily Weekly Monthly YTD Yearly 3 Yrs.
Commodities % Chg % Chg % Chg % Chg % Chg % Chg
GOLD COMEX Dec 19 1,473.80 1,480.20 1,482.35 1,466.20 7.9 0.54% 1.03% 0.33% 12.78% 16.35% 23.49%
SILVER COMEX Dec 19 16.99 17 17.087 16.898 0.051 0.30% 2.18% -0.54% 7.62% 16.14% 5.24%
CRUDE OIL NYMEX Dec 19 59.98 59.98 59.98 59.98 0 0.00% 1.32% 3.92% 32.09% 17.15% 15.57%
NAT GAS NYMEX Nov 19 2.34 2.306 2.34 2.253 -0.022 -0.95% -1.20% -14.21% -21.56% -39.74% -32.47%
COPPER LME 3 Month 6,189.75 6,141.25 6,215.75 6,096.00 -20.25 -0.33% 1.92% 5.11% 2.68% 0.00% 8.81%
NICKEL LME 3 Month 14,065.00 14,212.50 14,262.50 13,950.00 200 1.43% 5.36% -4.95% 33.11% 28.77% 27.01%
ALUMINIUM LME 3 Month 1,774.75 1,765.25 1,782.50 1,763.25 -6.75 -0.38% 0.20% 0.13% -3.15% -7.15% 2.36%
LEAD LME 3 Month 1,935.50 1,907.50 1,959.50 1,902.50 -20.5 -1.06% 0.93% -4.99% -6.15% -2.42% -14.88%
ZINC LME 3 Month 2,270.50 2,258.00 2,310.25 2,253.75 -2.75 -0.12% 0.85% -5.37% -7.69% -10.89% -17.27%
(Source: Investing.com)

MCX Expiry Open Close High Low Change Daily Vol OI Weekly Monthly YTD Yearly 3 Yrs
Commodities % Chg % Chg % Chg % Chg % Chg % Chg
GOLD 05 FEB 2019 37466 37773 37840 37466 229 0.61 16515 15361 0.27% -0.51% 20.42% 19.80% 39.15%
SILVER 05 MAR 2019 43908 44126 44370 43880 200 0.46 22401 11876 1.46% -0.59% 13.81% 16.10% 11.30%
CRUDE OIL 18 DEC 2019 4196 4241 4273 4194 41 0.98 285308 19184 0.71% 2.47% 33.63% 14.80% 20.68%
NAT. GAS 26 DEC 2019 164.1 162.8 165.1 159.8 -0.5 -0.31 120109 22878 -3.21% -16.19% -23.37% -41.11% -29.27%
COPPER 31 DEC 2019 442.8 440 445.4 438.75 -1.95 -0.44 23105 4940 0.52% 0.62% 8.01% -0.29% 14.33%
NICKEL 31 DEC 2019 1020.7 1032.6 1035.5 1020.7 11.9 1.17 16524 998 3.77% -6.78% 39.98% 30.86% 36.49%
ALUMINIUM 31 DEC 2019 133.75 132.95 134.25 132.7 -0.55 -0.41 2210 1428 -0.19% 1.22% 3.02% -3.34% 13.63%
LEAD 31 DEC 2019 153.4 152.25 153.95 152.1 -0.95 -0.62 4145 971 -0.23% -1.84% 8.26% 8.41% 0.03%
ZINC 31 DEC 2019 183.1 181.6 184.5 181.35 -1.1 -0.6 14062 2561 -0.79% -5.54% 4.43% -0.95% -1.52%
(Source: Ticker plant)

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 MNCL DAILY COMMODITY MARKET RADAR
16-Dec-2019
TECHNICAL VIEW – MCX (Daily)
Pivots S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 15 Min Hourly 5 Hrs. Daily Weekly
GOLD 37319 37546 37693 37920 38147 Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Neutral Neutral
SILVER 43635 43881 44125 44371 44616 Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Neutral Neutral
CRUDE OIL 4157 4199 4236 4278 4320 Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy
NAT. GAS 157.27 160.03 162.57 165.33 168.10 Neutral Strong Buy Neutral Strong Sell Strong Sell
COPPER 434.73 437.37 441.38 444.02 446.65 Strong Sell Strong Sell Buy Strong Buy Neutral
NICKEL 1014.80 1023.70 1029.60 1038.50 1047.40 Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Neutral Strong Sell
ALUMINIUM 131.75 132.35 133.30 133.90 134.50 Strong Sell Strong Sell Neutral Buy Strong Sell
LEAD 150.92 151.58 152.77 153.43 154.10 Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Sell
ZINC 179.33 180.47 182.48 183.62 184.75 Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell Strong Sell
(Source: Investing.com)

Indicators/Studies RSI (14) MACD ADX (14) Williams CCI MA 10 MA20 MA50 MA100 Summary
GOLD Buy Buy Neutral Buy Buy Buy Neutral Sell Buy Buy
SILVER Buy Buy Neutral Buy Buy Buy Buy Sell Sell Buy
CRUDE OIL Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
NAT. GAS Neutral Neutral Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell Buy Buy Neutral
COPPER Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
NICKEL Neutral Buy Neutral Buy Buy Buy Sell Sell Buy Neutral
ALUMINIUM Buy Sell Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Sell Sell Buy
LEAD Neutral Sell Neutral Neutral Buy Buy Sell Sell Buy Neutral
ZINC Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
(Source: Investing.com)

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 MNCL DAILY COMMODITY MARKET RADAR
16-Dec-2019
ECONOMIC DATA

Date/Time Currency Importance Data Forecast Previous

Mon, Dec 16, 2019
07:30 CNY ¤¤¤ Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) 0.05 0.047
12:00 INR ¤¤ WPI Inflation (YoY) (Nov) 0.0074 0.0016
14:30 EUR ¤¤ Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 47.3 46.9
14:30 EUR ¤¤ Markit Composite PMI (Dec) 50.7 50.6
14:30 EUR ¤¤ Services PMI (Dec) 52 51.9
15:00 GBP ¤¤¤ Composite PMI 49.3
15:00 GBP ¤¤¤ Manufacturing PMI 48.9
15:00 GBP ¤¤¤ Services PMI 49.3
19:00 USD ¤¤ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec) 3.5 2.9
20:15 USD ¤¤ Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 52.5 52.6
20:15 USD ¤¤ Markit Composite PMI (Dec) 52
20:15 USD ¤¤ Services PMI (Dec) 51.8 51.6
22:30 GBP ¤¤ BoE Financial Stability Report
Tues, Dec 17, 2019
15:00 GBP ¤¤¤ Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Oct) 0.034 0.036
15:00 GBP ¤¤¤ Claimant Count Change (Nov) 21.3K 33.0K
15:00 GBP ¤¤ Unemployment Rate (Oct) 0.039 0.038
15:30 EUR ¤¤ Trade Balance (Oct) 17.0B 18.7B
19:00 USD ¤¤¤ Building Permits (Nov) 1.400M 1.461M
19:00 USD ¤¤ Building Permits (MoM) (Nov) 0.05
19:45 USD ¤¤ Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) -0.0113
19:45 USD ¤¤ Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) 0.008 -0.008

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 MNCL DAILY COMMODITY MARKET RADAR
16-Dec-2019
20:30 USD ¤¤¤ JOLTs Job Openings (Oct) 7.024M
Wed, Dec 18, 2019
03:00 USD ¤¤ API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 1.410M
15:00 GBP ¤¤ CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.002 -0.002
15:00 GBP ¤¤¤ CPI (YoY) (Nov) 0.014 0.015
15:00 GBP ¤¤ PPI Input (MoM) (Nov) 0.005 -0.013
15:30 EUR ¤¤ Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) 0.013 0.011
15:30 EUR ¤¤¤ CPI (YoY) (Nov) 0.01 0.007
15:30 EUR ¤¤ CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.003 0.001
21:00 USD ¤¤¤ Crude Oil Inventories 0.822M
21:00 USD ¤¤ Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -3.393M
Thur, Dec 19, 2019
15:00 GBP ¤¤ Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 0.013 0.027
15:00 GBP ¤¤ Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.003 -0.003
15:00 GBP ¤¤ Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 0.021 0.031
15:00 GBP ¤¤¤ Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.003 -0.001
Tentative INR ¤¤ RBI MPC Meeting Minutes
17:30 GBP ¤¤¤ BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec) 0.0075 0.0075
17:30 GBP ¤¤¤ BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
19:00 USD ¤¤ Current Account (Q3) -122.8B -128.2B
19:00 USD ¤¤ Initial Jobless Claims 252K
19:00 USD ¤¤¤ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) 8.5 10.4
20:30 USD ¤¤ Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.014 0.019
20:30 USD ¤¤¤ Existing Home Sales (Nov) 5.45M 5.46M
Fri, Dec 20, 2019
15:00 GBP ¤¤¤ GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.003 0.003

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MNCL DAILY COMMODITY MARKET RADAR
16-Dec-2019
15:00 GBP ¤¤¤ GDP (YoY) (Q3) 0.01 0.01
19:00 USD ¤¤¤ GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.021 0.02
20:30 USD ¤¤ Michigan Consumer Expectations (Dec) 86.1 88.9
20:30 USD ¤¤ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 99.2 99.2
20:30 USD ¤¤ Personal Spending (MoM) (Nov) 0.004 0.003

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 MNCL DAILY COMMODITY MARKET RADAR
16-Dec-2019

PRODUCT BASKET

Product Name Description Holding Reward to Risk Reward (% on Margin Suitable for
Period Risk Ratio Deployed)
MNCL COM Retail Traders, High Risk
Momentum based Call on Sentiment 1.2 to 1.5:1 Expected Returns : 7-15%
Intraday Traders and Intraday
SWING and Technical Analysis Expected Risk :5-10%
Traders
MNCL COM Short Term Call, Carryover Call, BTST Retail Traders, HNI
TREND 1.5 to 2:1 Expected Returns : 10-25%
and STBT Call based on Fundamental 1-3 Days Traders and Positional
Expected Risk : 7-20%
and Technical Analysis. Traders

MNCL COM Medium Term Call based on

More than 1.5 to 2:1 Expected Returns : 25-40% HNI Traders and
Fundamental and Technical Analysis
ELITE one week Expected Risk :15-25% Positional Traders
with logic
MNCL COM Low Risk Retail Traders,
Short-term Trading Call based on 1-5 Days 1.5 to 2:1 Expected Returns : 12-20%
HNI and Positional
PAIR Technical Analysis. Expected Risk : 8-12%
Traders
MNCL COM Short-term Option Strategies which can
Low Risk Retail Traders,
be one-leg, two-leg or multi-leg using 1.5 to 2:1 Expected Returns : 25-40%
OPTIONS Futures and Options to reduce risk or
1-5 Days
Expected Risk :15-25%
HNI and Positional
Traders
hedge the existing position.

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 MNCL DAILY COMMODITY MARKET RADAR
16-Dec-2019
COMFX RESEARCH TEAM
Name Designation Specialization Email Landline No.
Milan Shah Senior Research Analyst - Equity, Commodity & Currency Agri Commodities Milan.shah@mnclgroup.com 079-66000743
Abhilash Tanna Research Analyst - Commodity & Currency Energy, Metals and Currencies abhilash.tanna@mnclgroup.com 079-66000580

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