Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam as ASEAN Chair in
2020: The Challenges Ahead
December 21, 2019

We request your analysis of the following issues:

Q1. Vietnam is preparing to take over the rotating ASEAN chairmanship and become
a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council in 2020. In your opinion, what
are Vietnam’s advantages (strengths) that will help it fulfil its duties in these positions?
ANSWER: The ASEAN Chair is a rotating position. All other ASEAN members will
respect Vietnam as the ASEAN Chair. Vietnam’s strengths include past experience as
ASEAN Chair; its coordination this year with Thailand, the present ASEAN Chair; and
Vietnam’s highly capable professional diplomatic corps. In addition, Vietnam has two
additional strengths – internal stability and a high rate of economic growth. In other
words, domestic factors will not distract Vietnam’s leaders from focusing on their role
as ASEAN Chair.
Non-permanent membership on the UN Security Council is an elective position.
Vietnam will be one of eight non-permanent members. Vietnam has the following
advantages – it was the unanimous choice of the Asia bloc at the UN, Vietnam was
elected with an overwhelming vote by the UN General Assembly, Vietnam has recent
past experience as a non-permanent member, Vietnam is stepping up its commitment
to UN Peacekeeping Operations, and Vietnam is widely recognized as an independent
actor. An additional strength is that Vietnam has a network of sixteen strategic
partners (four of whom are permanent members of the Security Council) and twelve
comprehensive partners (including the United States).
Q2. What challenges Vietnam can face in performing its duties at these forums? And
what should Vietnam do to promote its strengths as well as image at these forums?
ANSWER: As ASEAN Chair Vietnam will face the challenge of divisions among its
members who act mainly in their own interests and less so in the common interests
of ASEAN. Vietnam will have to be very proactive in forging consensus on key issues.
Vietnam will also face the challenge of getting the ASEAN Secretariat and associated
bureaucracy to act with greater efficiency. One of the first challenges Vietnam will face
is to forge consensus on the invitation by President Donald Trump to hold a special
ASEAN-United States leaders’ summit in the United States in early 2020. The timetable
will be difficult as the U.S. will be entering a presidential election year.
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As ASEAN Chair Vietnam has the opportunity to exert “active and proactive”
leadership to pursue its theme for 2020 – Cohesive and Responsive. Vietnam has set
itself five major objectives:
1. Strengthening of ASEAN unity and solidarity
2. Intensifying ASEAN’s economic integration and connectivity
3. Promoting ASEAN identity and awareness
4. Enhancing ASEAN’s global partnership for peace, stability and sustainable
development, and
5. Increasing ASEAN’s institutional capacity and effectiveness
In contrast, while Vietnam can play a constructive role on the Security Council as a
non-permanent member, it will be in a more passive position. Vietnam will face
challenges in deciding how to vote on issues where China and the United States
disagree and on issues where China/Russia disagree with the United States. Vietnam
will have to be proactive in coalition building with other Security Council members on
each issue that comes before the Security Council.
Q3. There are reports that in 2020 the foreign policy of the countries in the region,
especially Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia, will focus on maritime security.
What is your opinion? How do you assess Vietnam's ability to work with other
countries to address security issues?
ANSWER: Maritime security will remain a prime focus for Southeast Asian states in
2020. Next year ASEAN members and China will continue negotiations on the Single
Draft South China Sea Code of Conduct Negotiating Text. These negotiations are likely
to include the second of three readings. These negotiations are also being conducted
under a working timetable of three years set in August 2018.
Vietnam should work closely with the Philippines as it is the ASEAN country
coordinator for relations with China until 2021 and Beijing has already signaled that it
will work closely with Manila.
The Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam are all South China Sea claimant states that
have disputes with China. They all pursue difference approaches to these disputes.
The Philippines prefers dialogue with China while at the same time suspending the
Award of the Arbitral Tribunal that heard its case against China. Malaysia prefers to
maintain a quiet low-keyed posture in dealing with China. Vietnam strongly supports
international law, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Vietnam seeks
support from the international community while pursuing a bilateral policy of
“cooperating and struggling” with China.
Vietnam can use its role as ASEAN Chair in 2020 to promote practical measures to
advance the ASEAN Political-Security Community. Also, as ASEAN Chair, Vietnam can
be proactive in shaping the outcomes of the ASEAN Regional Forum, ASEAN Defence
Ministers’ Meeting Plus, Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum and most importantly the
East Asia Summit.
The East Asia Summit very likely will be held after the U.S. presidential election on 2nd
November. Vietnam will have to explore whether it is possible to get Trump to attend
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if he is re-elected president. If Trump loses, the new U.S. president will take office in
January 2021 when Brunei will replace Vietnam and ASEAN Chair.

Media Identification: Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of

New South Wales, Canberra or Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of
New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam as ASEAN Chair in 2020: The
Challenges Ahead,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, December 21, 2019. All
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.