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46723295.

xls
Original ExpVal

Use mechanical method


80000
-120000 80000

0.5
Electronic success
150000
0.5 Try electronic method 0 150000
Awarded contract
2 -50000 90000 0.5
250000 90000 Electronic failure
30000
-120000 30000

0.7
Magnetic success
Prepare proposal 120000
Try magnetic method 0 120000
-50000 20000
-80000 84000 0.3
Magnetic failure
0
-120000 0

1 0.5
20000 Not awarded contract
-50000
0 -50000

Don't prepare proposal


0
0 0

Michael R. Middleton, School of Business and Management, University of San Francisco


46723295.xls
Formatted ExpVal

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S
1
2 Use mechanical method
3 $80,000
4 -$120,000 $80,000
5
6 0.5
7 Electronic success
8 $150,000
9 0.5 Try electronic method $0 $150,000
10 Awarded contract
11 2 -$50,000 $90,000 0.5
12 $250,000 $90,000 Electronic failure
13 $30,000
14 -$120,000 $30,000
15
16 0.7
17 Magnetic success
18 Prepare proposal $120,000
19 Try magnetic method $0 $120,000
20 -$50,000 $20,000
21 -$80,000 $84,000 0.3
22 Magnetic failure
23 $0
24 -$120,000 $0
25
26 1 0.5
27 $20,000 Not awarded contract
28 -$50,000
29 $0 -$50,000
30
31
32 Don't prepare proposal
33 $0
34 $0 $0

Michael R. Middleton, School of Business and Management, University of San Francisco


Use mechanical method

-$120,000

0.5 Try electronic method


Awarded contract
-$50,000
$250,000

Prepare proposal
Try magnetic method
-$50,000
-$80,000

0.5
Not awarded contract

$0

Don't prepare proposal

$0
$80,000

0.5
Electronic success
$150,000
$0

0.5
Electronic failure Use mechanical method
$30,000
$0 -$120,000

0.7
Magnetic success
$120,000
$0

0.3
Magnetic failure Use mechanical method
$0
$0 -$120,000

-$50,000

$0
46723295.xls
Risk Utility Unscaled

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S
1
2 Use mechanical method
3 $80,000
4 -$120,000 $80,000
5 0.41335
6 0.5
7 Electronic success
8 $150,000
9 0.5 Try electronic method $0 $150,000
10 Awarded contract 0.63212
11 1 -$50,000 $78,307 0.5
12 $250,000 $80,000 0.40669 Electronic failure
13 0.41335 $30,000
14 -$120,000 $30,000
15 0.18127
16 0.7
17 Magnetic success
18 Prepare proposal $120,000
19 Try magnetic method $0 $120,000
20 -$50,000 $1,337 0.55067
21 0.00887 -$80,000 $73,035 0.3
22 0.38547 Magnetic failure
23 $0
24 -$120,000 $0
25 0.00000
26 1 0.5
27 $1,337 Not awarded contract
28 0.00887 -$50,000
29 $0 -$50,000
30 -0.39561
31
32 Don't prepare proposal
33 $0
34 $0 $0

Michael R. Middleton, School of Business and Management, University of San Francisco


46723295.xls
Risk Utility Scaled

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S
1
2 Use mechanical method
3 $80,000
4 -$120,000 $80,000
5 0.78714
6 0.5
7 Electronic success
8 $150,000
9 0.5 Try electronic method $0 $150,000
10 Awarded contract 1.00000
11 1 -$50,000 $78,307 0.5
12 $250,000 $80,000 0.78066 Electronic failure
13 0.78714 $30,000
14 -$120,000 $30,000
15 0.56131
16 0.7
17 Magnetic success
18 Prepare proposal $120,000
19 Try magnetic method $0 $120,000
20 -$50,000 $1,337 0.92075
21 0.39357 -$80,000 $73,035 0.3
22 0.76000 Magnetic failure
23 $0
24 -$120,000 $0
25 0.38494
26 1 0.5
27 $1,337 Not awarded contract
28 0.39357 -$50,000
29 $0 -$50,000
30 0.00000
31
32 Don't prepare proposal
33 $0
34 $0 $0

Michael R. Middleton, School of Business and Management, University of San Francisco

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