Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
EXHIBIT B
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 2 of 43
S E L F -C O N T A I N E D R E P O R T
OF A
COMPLETE APPRAISAL
Valuation of a
Residential Subdivision
Brightwater Unsold Lots-Units and Units in Escrow
Brightwater Dr between Warner Ave and Bolsa Chica St
Huntington Beach (Orange County), California 92649
Prepared for
California Coastal Communities, Inc.
6 Executive Circle, Suite 250
Irvine, CA 92614
Prepared by
D I S TEFANO C OMPANY
5020 Campus Drive
Newport Beach, California 92660
Phone 949-833-0880
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 3 of 43
D ISTEFANO C OMPANY
Real Estate Appraisal and Consulting
5020 Campus Drive Phone 949-833-0880
Newport Beach, CA 92660 Fax 949-833-9040
www.distef.com e-mail carld@distef.com
Sincerely,
D I S TEFANO C OMPANY
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT 2
APPRAISAL PREMISES 2
Definitions 2
Client, Intended User, and Intended Use 3
Purpose of the Appraisal 3
Property Interest Appraised 4
Effective Date of the Appraisal and Date of the Report 4
Scope of Work 4
Assumptions and Limiting Conditions 4
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION 8
Property Identification 8
Owner of Record and Ownership History 8
Environmental Issues 10
Area Description 10
Neighborhood Description 16
Supply and Demand Analysis and Trends 19
Site and Improvement Description 27
Property Tax and Assessments 34
HIGHEST AND BEST USE 53
Highest and Best Use of the Property “As Is” 53
DESCRIPTION OF THE APPRAISAL PROCESS 54
VALUATION – BULK VALUE “AS IS” 56
Forecast Revenue 56
Retail Value of Completed Houses 57
Comparable Improved Data 57
Value Estimate - Sales Comparison Approach - Retail Values 78
Bulk Value Estimate – Discounted Cash Flow 80
Value Estimate – Bulk Value “As Is” 89
Exposure Time 90
CERTIFICATION 90
iii
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 6 of 43
ILLUSTRATIONS
Orange County Coastal Zip Codes 26
Area Map 35
Neighborhood Map 36
Subject Photographs 38
Comparable Improved Data 59
APPENDIXES
Appendix A: Title Report Excerpts and Assessor’s Maps
Appendix B: Site Plan with Phases
Appendix C: MarketPointe Inventory
Appendix D: Unit List and Retail Values
Appendix E: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis – Bulk Value
Appendix F: Appraiser’s Qualifications
iv
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 7 of 43
LOOKING WEST
Imperial Hwy
La Palma v
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 8 of 43 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
subject property Brightwater residential subdivision (unsold lots-units
and units in escrow). Various addresses.
Brightwater Dr between Warner Ave and Bolsa Chica St
Huntington Beach (Orange County), CA 92649
assessor’s parcel(s) See Appendix A
site description Total Brightwater project: irregularly shaped,
approximately level tract totaling 105.3 acres, subdivided
into 356 single-family residential lots plus common area
parks and street frontages. Zoning: medium and low-
density single-family residential. Status of entitlements:
all in place. Density: 3.3 dwelling units per acre.
property appraised 276 units (11 units in escrow and 265 unsold units) to be
completed and sold. See unit list in Appendix D.
unit mix See page 30
hazardous substances None observed
flood zone FEMA Zone X (no flood insurance required), FEMA
Map 06059C0233H dated February 24, 2004.
unusual seismic hazards None
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 9 of 43 2
APPRAISAL PREMISES
Definitions
Market Value
The most probable price which a property should bring in a
competitive and open market under all conditions requisite to a fair
sale, the buyer and seller each acting prudently and knowledgeably, and
assuming the price is not affected by undue stimulus. Implicit in this
definition is the consummation of a sale as of a specified date and the
passing of title from seller to buyer under conditions whereby:
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
APPRAISAL PREMISES Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 10 of 43 3
Valuation Premise
market value (bulk value) “as is.” The “as is” condition reflects the actual
physical, legal, economic, and political status of the land as of the effective date
of the appraisal. For this appraisal, the “as is” value estimate represents the
bulk value to a single buyer intending to complete the construction and
marketing of the project. The bulk value reflects a discount from aggregate
retail value to cover expenses of building and marketing unsold units.
The client and intended user is California Coastal Communities, Inc. The
report is intended for the client’s use in connection with asset valuation.
The purpose of the appraisal is to estimate the market value per the definition
on page 2.
1 Source: OCC, 12 CFR, Part 34, Subpart C-Appraisals 34.42 Definitions (g).
2 Ibid., 140.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
APPRAISAL PREMISES Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 11 of 43 4
The property interest appraised is the fee simple estate in the subject property,
including the future value of profit sharing related to the model units owned
by a third-party investor.
The effective date of the appraisal is February 1, 2010. The date of the report is
February 19, 2010, which is the date of the transmittal letter and the date when
the analysis and report were completed.
Scope of Work
The value estimate stated in this report is subject to the following assumptions
and limiting conditions:
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
APPRAISAL PREMISES Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 12 of 43 5
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
APPRAISAL PREMISES Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 13 of 43 6
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
APPRAISAL PREMISES Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 14 of 43 7
16. The appraisal report includes maps, sketches, and exhibits solely as aids in
illustrating topics discussed in the report. Such aids should not be
considered as surveys, or be relied on for any other purpose, or be
reproduced, or be used apart from the report.
17. The appraiser assumes that the assignment does not include testimony or
attendance in court with reference to the appraisal, unless prior
arrangements are made regarding additional employment.
18. The distribution, if any, of the final value estimate between land and
improvements applies only for the stated use, and the distribution is
invalid if used with any other appraisal.
19. The possession of this report does not include the right of publication. The
report is intended for the sole use of the client. Without the written
consent of the appraiser, the report may not be used for any purpose by
anyone other than the client to whom it is addressed.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 15 of 43 8
Property Identification
The Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice require the appraiser to analyze
any sales of the property that have occurred within 3 years of the effective date of the
appraisal or any current purchase agreements, options, or listings for the property.
According to the title report, the current owner of the fee estate in the subject property is
Signal Landmark. The current owner, or related entities, has owned the land since the 1970s.
The owner is developing a 356-unit, single-family residential subdivision on the property as
described in this report. The owner has built and will continue to build all the homes in the
project. No lots have been, or are, offered for sale to other builders.
The owner filed a Chapter 11 bankruptcy petition in October 2009 and is in the process of
preparing a plan of reorganization.
Unit Status
The status of the entire Brightwater project, and property appraised is as follows as of the
effective date of the appraisal:
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 16 of 43 9
Number
of
Status Units
Subject Property
Production units unsold (14 speculative units under construction and 251
vacant lots to be improved with single-family residences) 265
Production units in escrow scheduled to close Mar-10 through Sep-10 on
completion of construction 11
Subtotal subject property 274
Not a Part
Production units sold to individual buyers from Dec-07 through Jan-10 (not a
part of the subject property) 63
Model units sold to an investor in Dec-08 (not a part of the property appraised
except for future payments to the owner of the subject property, included in
the valuation as personal property) 17
Subtotal sold units 80
Total Brightwater 356
A unit list in Appendix D shows the status of each unit. Sold units were all sold for cash
without seller financing. Buyers are required to live in the unit as their principal residence for
18 months (anti-speculation clause).
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 17 of 43 10
Environmental Issues
No environmental information was provided for review. The appraisal assumes that no
environmental issues exist that would influence the value.
Area Description
The Los Angeles metropolitan area covers parts of five Southern California counties: Los
Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, and Ventura.
The subject property is in the city of Huntington Beach in north coastal Orange
County about 26 miles southeast of downtown Los Angeles, 3 miles northwest of
downtown Huntington Beach, and ¼ mile inland from the Pacific Coast.
Huntington Beach (incorporated in 1909) covers an area of 26.4 square miles and is
the third largest city in Orange County in terms of population. The city is known for its
long beach (8.5 miles), mild climate, and excellent surfing.
Population
The following table shows the trend in population growth.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 18 of 43 11
POPULATION GROWTH
Average Average Average
Metropolitan Annual Orange Annual Huntington Annual
Year Los Angeles Change County Change Beach Change
1970 9,976,000 — 1,432,000 — 115,960 —
1980 11,426,000 1.4% 1,945,000 3.1% 170,505 3.9%
1990 14,630,000 2.5% 2,424,000 2.2% 181,519 0.6%
2000 16,554,900 1.2% 2,867,800 1.7% 190,300 0.5%
2009 18,536,885 1.3% 3,139,017 1.0% 202,480 0.7%
Source: California Department of Finance.
Economy
The Southern California economy, along with the national economy, has begun a
recovery from the most severe recession since WWII. The recession began in fall 2007
with the collapse of sub-prime residential lenders and then spread throughout the
economy. The bankruptcy of Lehman Bros. in September 2008 was the catalyst for a
worldwide financial panic now largely abated. The fourth quarter 2008 and first quarter
2009 saw the worst of the recession, including a severe credit crunch, declining house
prices, and a declining stock market. Unprecedented government intervention has
stabilized the economy and is expected to result in a gradual recovery that will gain
strength in the last half of 2010 and thereafter. The stock market appears to have
bottomed in March 2009, and house prices appear to have started recovering currently.
u.s. gross domestic product. Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the output of
goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States. The
following table shows the trend in GDP.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 19 of 43 12
Annualized change %
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
1980q3
1981q2
1982q1
1982q4
1983q3
1984q2
1985q1
1985q4
1986q3
1987q2
1988q1
1988q4
1989q3
1990q2
1991q1
1991q4
1992q3
1993q2
1994q1
1994q4
1995q3
1996q2
1997q1
1997q4
1998q3
1999q2
2000q1
2000q4
2001q3
2002q2
2003q1
2003q4
2004q3
2005q2
2006q1
2006q4
2007q3
2008q2
2009q1
2009q4
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
U.S. gross domestic product grew in the third and fourth quarters of 2009 after severe
declines in the preceding four quarters.
consumer trends. Consumer confidence levels reflect people’s feelings about general
business conditions, employment opportunities, and their own income prospects. The
following table shows the trend in consumer sentiment as measured by the Consumer
Confidence Index.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 20 of 43 13
The consumer confidence index declined to 25 in February 2009, its lowest point since the
inception of the index in 1967. The index has since recovered somewhat, although is still
very low (55.9 as of January 2010).
pmi index. The Institute of Supply Management publishes the Purchasing Managers
Index that is considered one of the best leading indicators marking the end of a recession.
The index measures the breadth of economic distress or success across firms. When the
index turns up decisively, an expansion is typically one to four months away, although in
some cases the index has turned up as long as a year before the end of a recession.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 21 of 43 14
80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-48
Jan-51
Jan-54
Jan-57
Jan-60
Jan-63
Jan-66
Jan-69
Jan-72
Jan-75
Jan-78
Jan-81
Jan-84
Jan-87
Jan-90
Jan-93
Jan-96
Jan-99
Jan-02
Jan-05
Jan-08
Source: The Institute of Supply Management.
The Purchasing Managers Index fell to 32.9 in December 2008 to a level seen only in the
worst recessions since World War II. The index recovered to 58.4 as of the latest figure
(January 2010), giving some hope for better conditions ahead.
Job Growth
Job growth is a good indicator of overall economic activity and strongly influences the
real estate markets. The following table shows the trend in job growth.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 22 of 43 15
Jobs have declined for the past 3 years. As of its latest forecast (December 2009),
Chapman University forecasts that Orange County will experience essentially flat job
growth in 2010, with a weaker first half and stronger second half 2010.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 23 of 43 16
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Jan-10
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and California Department of Labor.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
Current unemployment rates are at levels exceeding the 1982 and 1992 recessions,
reflecting the severity of the recent downturn. Unemployment is a lagging indicator, not
expected to start improving until late 2010. The Orange County unemployment rate
(10.1% as of January 2010) is at an all-time high, although is the lowest among
California’s major areas. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board forecasts that unemployment
nationally will decline from 9.5% in 2010 to 8.5% in 2011.
Regional Summary
The economy appears to have begun an up-cycle, with GDP growth in the third and
fourth quarters of 2009, bringing to an end the worst recession since WWII. Job growth is
expected to be weak however, so that the recovery will be relatively moderate in
comparison to previous recoveries.
Neighborhood Description
Boundaries
The term neighborhood is defined as a group of complementary land uses. The
neighborhood of the subject property is bounded by the Pacific Coast on the south and
west, by the Garden Grove Freeway (State Route 22) and the San Diego Freeway (I-405)
on the north and northeast, and by Beach Boulevard on the east.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 24 of 43 17
Land Use
Land use includes a mix of suburban residential tracts, the original coastal downtown and
pier, a large light-industrial park in the northwest section of the city, and retail-office-
commercial uses concentrated on Beach Boulevard along its length from the coast to the
San Diego Freeway.
Transportation
In the vicinity of the subject property, Pacific Coast Highway (California Highway 1) is
the major north-south arterial street. Warner Avenue is the major east-west arterial street.
The closest freeway intersections to the subject property are at Warner Avenue and the
San Diego Freeway, 5 miles east, and at Bolsa Chica Road and the San Diego Freeway, 5
miles north. The John Wayne Orange County Airport is 11 miles east. Long Beach Airport
is 10 miles northwest.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 25 of 43 18
West of the Ecological Preserve across Pacific Coast Highway is the Bolsa Chica State
Beach running along 3 miles of coast from Sunset Beach to Huntington State Beach.
Northwest of the subject property along the coast is Huntington Harbour, an area of
expensive housing on navigable water channels developed in the 1960s-70s. North and
east of Brightwater is single-family residential development, with neighborhood-serving
commercial-retail development along arterial streets.
A 50-acre site across Bolsa Chica Street east of the subject property is owned by Shea
Homes and proposed for 111 high-end single-family homes (Parkside Estates).
Entitlements have not been granted, and it appears unlikely that this project, if built,
would come on stream in time to compete with the subject development.
Neighborhood Summary
The life cycle of a neighborhood usually involves four stages, varying only in intensity and
duration: growth, stability, decline, and revitalization. The neighborhood of the subject
property is an attractive, established coastal district in a long stage of stability. The
location close to the coast will support continued demand in the neighborhood as the
economy recovers.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 26 of 43 19
The Southern California residential real estate market, along with the national market, is
recovering from a sharp correction that began in 2007 after a period of extraordinary
growth in 1999-2006. During the boom, prices increased at unsustainable rates, in many
cases more than doubling. The collapse of subprime lending beginning in fall 2007 and
consequent catastrophes in the credit markets precipitated a dramatic bust that is now
largely abated. Some observers indicate that prices have over-corrected to the downside,
with the market now in the early stages of a new up-cycle that will gradually gain
momentum to a new peak in 2016-18.
Demand
Housing demand depends primarily on job growth, the relation of housing prices to
incomes, availability of financing, mortgage interest rates, and consumer sentiment. The
interplay of these factors influences the absorption of new residential construction, as well
as existing home sales.
job growth. Chapman University forecasts that Orange County will experience
essentially flat job growth in 2010, with a weaker first half and stronger second half 2010.
Future job growth and unemployment declines are expected to be relatively modest
compared with previous recoveries.
affordability. The following table shows the trend in housing affordability as measured
by the California Association of Realtors’ Housing Affordability Index.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 27 of 43 20
80
70
60
California
50
United States
Los Angeles
40
Orange County
30 Riverside/SBernardino
San Diego
20
10
0
Q1 1988
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1 1991
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1 1994
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1 1997
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1 2000
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1 2003
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1 2006
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1 2009
Source: California Association of Realtors.
The Housing Affordability Index tracks the percent of households that can afford to
purchase a median-priced home. With the decline in prices and interest rates,
affordability is back to levels last seen in the 1990s, although affordability has recently
hooked down as prices have begun increasing again.
The median price paid for a Southern California home was $289,000 in December
2009, up 4% from December 2008. The median price has increased after falling to a 7-
year low of $247,000 in April 2009. The median peaked at $505,000 in mid 2007. Changes
in the median do not necessarily correspond to changes in home values in the current,
atypical sales environment. Adjusting for shifts in market mix, it now appears that over
the past two years homes in older, more costly neighborhoods have come down in value
by about half as much as homes in newer, more affordable neighborhoods. Prices also fell
sharply in some lower-cost, older communities where the use of risky subprime loans was
high, triggering relatively high foreclosure rates. The median price is likely to rise as
“jumbo” and adjustable-rate financing becomes more available again, given that those
loan types fuel sales of homes priced above the Southland’s mid-point.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 28 of 43 21
typical minimum household income needed to afford a home in the price range of the
subject units.
The following table shows the number of households in Orange County with average
incomes exceeding $150,000.
Number of
Households
Income Range 2009 2014
$150,000-$199,000 79,008 94,522
$200,000-$249,000 37,248 51,901
$250,000-$499,000 33,628 47,037
$500,000 or more 16,010 23,448
Total 165,894 216,908
Source: Claritas
As sentiment improves, there are ample households with average incomes sufficient to
afford the subject units.
financing and interest rates. After the collapse of the sub-prime lending market,
underwriting standards have been tightened, thus reducing the number of potential
buyers. Loans above $417,000 – formerly the definition of a jumbo loan – accounted for
nearly 40% of all home purchases before the credit crunch hit 2 years ago. In December
2009 they accounted for 18.7% of purchases.
jumbo loans. The maximum loan amount for “conforming” loans purchased or
guaranteed by Federal agencies (Fannie May, Freddie Mac, FHA) was increased from
$417,000 to $729,750 in February 2008. Loans up to $417,000 are the easiest to obtain and
have the lowest interest rates; “conforming jumbos” from $417,000 to $729,750 are
somewhat more difficult to obtain and have slightly higher interest rates. The market for
true jumbo loans over $729,750 became very difficult during the credit freeze in late 2008-
early 2009, although the market has improved substantially since then, which directly
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 29 of 43 22
benefits the subject property - particularly the higher priced units. Interest rate spreads
have declined from 1.7% in early 2009 to less than 1% currently for jumbo versus
conforming loans. Now that home prices appear to be stabilizing, the supply of mortgage
financing should increase as investors seeking yield become more willing to invest in
securitized mortgages.
Mortgage interest rates remain low as shown in the following chart.
Mortgage interest rates are forecast to remain low at least until a recovery in the
residential market becomes more obvious.
market sentiment. One measure of consumer sentiment is the number of home sales.
According to DataQuick, an estimated 22,328 new and resale houses and condos sold in
Southern California in December 2009, up 12.1% from December 2008. The December
2009 sales figure is 11.2% below the December average. Sales have been buoyed by a
federal tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers.
The National Association of Home Builders index remains very low at 19 as of
January 2010. Index readings below 50 indicate negative sentiment. The last time the
index was above 50 was April 2006.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 30 of 43 23
Supply
new construction. The following table shows the trend in new residential construction
as measured by building permits.
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Dec-09
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 31 of 43 24
The chart reflects the real estate market cycles. New single-family construction has been
declining since the late 1990s because of relatively little developable residential land in
Orange County and high land and construction costs, and more recently the dearth of
financing. An additional source of supply is the shadow inventory of foreclosed houses,
which is expected to burn off in about 18 months.
Price Trends
The following chart shows the trends in house price appreciation/depreciation as
measured by the S&P/Case Shiller Index.
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
S&P/C ASE S HILLER P RICE I NDEX (R ATE OF I NCREASE /D ECREASE FROM P REVIOUS 12 M ONTHS )
The index measures the change in same-sale house prices from the price 12 months
earlier. As of the latest figures (November 2009), the index is at or near the zero line and
looks about to cross it in the next month or two, when prices will begin increasing again
after 3 years of declines.
The Case-Shiller indexes are broad measures and do not break down into smaller
geographic areas. In general areas close to the coast have seen lower price declines
compared with inland areas.
As of its December 2009 forecast, Chapman University indicates that the residential
price low occurred in first quarter 2009 and forecasts a 5.0% price increase for detached
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 32 of 43 25
resale houses in 2010 with moderate increases going forward because the economic
recovery will be moderate.
The market is bottoming sequentially by price range. Prices for the lowest priced
houses have clearly turned up with multiple offers pushing prices above asking price.
Mid-priced houses are also turning up. Highest priced houses, which did not decline as
dramatically, may not have begun an upturn as of yet. The slope of any future uptrend
will depend primarily on the rate of job growth and consumer sentiment.
DataQuick reports the following regarding prices and sales for Southern California
counties, with greater detail shown for coastal zip codes in Orange County:
S OUTHERN C ALIFORNIA N EW AND R ESALE S INGLE -F AMILY H OME S ALES AS OF D ECEMBER 2009
% chg
Zip Number Median from Price
Code of Sales Price Dec 08 /Sq Ft
Southern California Counties
Los Angeles 5,343 $340,000 6.3% $239
Riverside 3,463 $190,000 -5.0% $100
San Bernardino 2,549 $148,000 -12.8% $94
San Diego 2,185 $365,000 9.8% $208
Orange 1,833 $500,000 17.6% $289
Orange County Coastal Zip Codes1
Capistrano Beach 92624 6 $555,000 -25.6% $328
Corona del Mar 92625 15 $1,242,000 -57.5% $680
Dana Point 92629 14 $790,000 23.2% $380
Huntington Beach 92646 34 $660,000 10.0% $355
Huntington Beach 92648 32 $738,000 -2.5% $349
Huntington Beach (subject) 92649 18 $987,000 7.7% $471
Laguna Beach 92651 34 $1,293,000 29.3% $1,019
Newport Beach 92660 36 $1,085,000 -10.7% $493
Newport Beach 92661 2 $2,163,000 10.9% $1,307
Newport Beach 92663 11 $940,000 -21.7% $905
Newport Coast 92657 14 $1,975,000 16.2% n/a
Balboa Island 92662 1 $1,645,000 -0.3% $1,689
San Clemente 92672 21 $810,000 10.2% $441
Seal Beach 90740 7 $849,000 17.9% $875
Source: DQNews.com
Median prices have been influenced downward by foreclosure pricing as evidenced by the
extremely low prices per sq ft in the Inland Empire counties (Riverside-San Bernardino),
which have the highest number of foreclosures. Orange County has the highest average
median prices because of relatively fewer foreclosures as well as its attractive location.
Coastal prices per sq ft are significantly higher than the overall county average, as would
be expected.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 33 of 43 26
Chapman University forecasts that median resale single-family home prices will show
an increase of 1.6% in Orange County in 2010, after a 17.9% decline in 2009, for the
following reasons:
• As sales activity shifts from lower-priced homes to higher-priced tiers, the median
price will be pulled up.
• The ratio of median home prices to median income will reach 5.6 in 2010, near its
historical average of 5.7.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 34 of 43 27
• The ratio of Orange County to U.S. home prices will be at 2.3, also near its
historical average ratio of 2.4.
Maps and photographs for the subject property appear starting on page 35.
The subject property consists of the 276 units (11 units in escrow and 265 unsold
units) in the Brightwater single-family residential subdivision (total 356 lots-units). A
unit schedule is attached in Appendix D. A site plan is included in Appendix C.
The project is divided into four “neighborhoods” each with its own product mix and
model complex: The Trails, The Sands, The Cliffs, and The Breakers.
The project opened in August 2007, and is being built in small phases (see phasing
plan in Appendix B). The basic infrastructure and common areas are complete. What
remains is installation of some streets, finishing of some lots, and construction of
individual houses.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 35 of 43 28
The owner intends to build out the project through the completion and sale of all
units. No lots are available for sale to developers. The valuation assumes that all
construction will be completed as proposed.
Soils Conditions
No soils information was provided for review. The appraisal assumes that soils are stable
and adequate to support any proposed improvements.
Utilities
All public utilities and services are available to the site, with electrical service
underground.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 36 of 43 29
Zoning
Entitlements were originally processed through the California Coastal Commission and
the Orange County Planning Department while the property was in unincorporated
county land. In 2008 the entire property was annexed into the City of Huntington Beach,
which created a new specific plan, the Brightwater Specific Plan, incorporating the county
entitlements. All entitlements are in place. The zoning designation for the Trails and
Sands sections of the property are RM-15-SP (Residential Medium Density). The zoning
designation of the Cliffs and Breakers sections of the property are RL-7-SP (Residential
Low Density). The south periphery of the project and the native habitat along Los Patos
Avenue are zoned OS (Open Space).
Status of Entitlements
All entitlements to development are in place. The appraisal assumes that no entitlement
risk exists for the property.
Project Amenities
The project has extensive landscaping, arbors, and signage at each major entrance: off
Warner Avenue and Bolsa Chica Street. Brightwater Drive also has extensive landscaping
along its entire frontage. There are four small parks with arbors and tot lots along
Brightwater Drive and a larger park and undeveloped natural habitat between The Trails
and The Sands. The mesa trail, which runs along the southerly project boundary
overlooking the Ecological Preserve, has landscaping, signage and interpretive kiosks off
Warner Avenue and off Bolsa Chica Street. A glass wall runs along the entire southerly
boundary of the project. The Los Patos Avenue and Bolsa Chica Street frontages have a
stucco wall and setback landscaping along the entire length. The project does not have a
community clubhouse or pool.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 37 of 43 30
Unit Mix
The project has four distinct “neighborhoods” of single-family detached homes (see site
plan on page 37) with unit mix as follows.
The Trails has the smallest and least expensive units, followed by the Sands, the Cliffs, and
the Breakers.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 38 of 43 31
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 39 of 43 32
Unit
Area
Product Lot Plan (Sq Ft) Construction Status
Speculative Unsold
1 Breakers 20 3 3,940 85% complete
2 Breakers 59 3 3,940 100% complete
3 Breakers 64 4 4,100 70% complete
4 Cliffs 61 2 3,308 100% complete
5 Cliffs 62 1 2,940 100% complete
6 Sands 46 1 1,927 70% complete
7 Sands 47 2 1,988 90% complete
8 Sands 56 3 2,160 90% complete
9 Sands 57 3 2,160 100% complete
10 Trails 4 3x 1,953 100% complete
11 Trails 34 3 1,941 60% complete
12 Trails 36 1 1,710 60% complete
13 Trails 37 2 1,763 60% complete
14 Trails 39 3x 1,953 60% complete
The remaining 251 unsold lots are in vacant, finished and semi-finished condition (265
total unsold less 14 speculative units shown above). Costs to fully complete all the units
are included in the bulk value analysis.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 40 of 43 33
Unit Amenities
The Trails The Sands The Cliffs The Breakers
Exteriors Type V wood-frame Type V wood-frame Type V wood-frame Type V wood-frame
construction, Hampton construction, Hampton construction, Hampton, construction, Hampton
Cottage, Craftsman, Cottage, Craftsman, Craftsman, Traditional Cottage, Craftsman,
Tradition, Victorian styles Tradition, Victorian styles styles Traditional styles
Cedar siding, brick, stone Cedar siding, brick, stone Cedar siding, brick, stone Cedar siding, brick, stone
accents, hand-troweled accents, hand-troweled accents, hand-troweled accents, hand-troweled
stucco stucco stucco stucco
50-year composite shingle 50-year composite shingle 50-year composition tile 50-year composition tile
roof with gutters roof with gutters roof with gutters roof with gutters
Dual-pane windows Dual-pane windows Dual-pane windows Dual-pane windows
Paver driveways Paver driveways
Front yard landscaping Front yard landscaping
Block rear and side Block rear and side Block rear and side
fencing fencing (tempered glass on fencing (tempered glass on
view lots) view lots)
Interiors Ceiling ht: 10' first floor- Ceiling ht: 10' first floor- Ceiling ht: 10' first floor- Ceiling ht: 10' first floor-
9' second floor 9' second floor 9' second floor 9' second floor
Smoke detectors and fire Smoke detectors and fire Smoke detectors and fire Smoke detectors and fire
sprinklers sprinklers sprinklers sprinklers
Pre-wired for computer Pre-wired for computer Pre-wired for computer Pre-wired for computer
networks and cable networks and cable networks and cable networks and cable
Security system Security system Security system Security system
Home theater in family Home theater in family Home theater in family Home theater in family
room room room room
50-gallon water heater 50-gallon water heater 75-gallon water heater, 75-gallon water heater,
recirculating recirculating
Heating and air- Heating and air- Dual heating and air- Dual heating and air-
conditioning conditioning conditioning conditioning
Finished garages: painted Finished garages: painted Finished garages: painted Finished garages: painted
drywall with openers drywall with openers drywall with openers drywall with openers
Wood and gas burning Wood and gas burning Wood and gas burning Wood and gas burning
fireplaces fireplaces fireplaces fireplaces
Interior laundry with Interior laundry with Interior laundry with Interior laundry with
cabinets cabinets cabinets cabinets
Kitchens Granite counters Granite counters Granite counters Granite counters
Viking appliances built-in Viking appliances built-in Subzero built-in Subzero built-in
refrigerator, gas cook top, refrigerator, gas cook top, refrigerator, Wolf gas refrigerator, Wolf gas
convection oven and convection oven and range, convection- range, convection-
microwave oven, microwave oven, microwave over, Asko microwave over, Asko
dishwasher, disposal dishwasher, disposal dishwasher dishwasher
Bathrooms Kohler sinks, tub faucets Kohler sinks, tub faucets Kohler sinks, tub faucets Kohler sinks, tub faucets
Caesarstone counters Caesarstone counters Caesarstone counters Caesarstone counters
Frameless shower door Frameless shower door Frameless shower door Frameless shower door
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 41 of 43 34
Models
Models are open seven days a week with in-house sales staff. Sales offices and design
centers are located in each model complex. The models will be restored as residences and
sold as the production units sell out.
Homeowners Association
The Brightwater Maintenance Association maintains common areas, parks, and entries.
Monthly dues are $177.
Improvement Comments
This is an attractive single-family subdivision of upscale to luxury homes, some with
ocean views, offering a wide range of unit sizes and amenities. The project is laid out with
the biggest units and lots in the south part of the project with the best views. The floor
plans offer a variety of distinctive features and options including loft-lookouts, media
rooms, outdoor living rooms with fireplaces, wine rooms, preparation kitchens, home
offices, and casitas. The units are well designed and have all the features expected by the
market.
The property tax rate is estimated at 1.04%of the sales price. Brightwater does not have
any Mello-Roos supplemental assessments.
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 42 of 43 35
A REA M AP
DISTEFANO COMPANY
Case 8:09-bk-21712-TA Doc 217-2 Filed 03/26/10 Entered 03/26/10 18:41:32 Desc
PROPERTY AND AREA DESCRIPTION Exhibit B - Part 1 Page 43 of 43 36
N EIGHBORHOOD M AP
DISTEFANO COMPANY