Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Lecture #1
Alp Akcay
Assistant Professor in OPAC group (IE&IS)
Atlas 4.408
A.E.Akcay@tue.nl
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Lectures and Instructions on Maintenance
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Course Materials
• Lecture presentations
• Typically two versions (i.e., before-lecture and after-lecture)
• The after-lecture version includes all the answers/solutions.
• Exercise sets
• Handouts
• Elementary Maintenance Models, Arts (2014) for Lectures 1-4.
• Condition-Based Maintenance, Akcay (2018) for Lectures 5-6.
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Lesson Plan for Today
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Learning Objectives
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Why is maintenance important?
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Why is maintenance important?
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Why is maintenance important?
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Why is maintenance important?
• E.g. Joint Strike Fighter is 60M € per unit and 120M € spent
on maintenance over thirty years.
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What is needed for maintenance?
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Maintenance strategies
Maintenance
Strategies
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Maintenance strategies
Modificative maintenance:
• Interchanging a part with a technically more advanced one to make
the equipment perform better; it is non-recurring.
Preventive maintenance:
• A part is preventively replaced before its failure occurs (notice that a
part can fail before its planned replacement time).
• Ideal for parts that wear out; e.g, machine tools.
• Two types: Usage based or condition based.
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Usage-based maintenance
• Measure of usage:
o Calendar time
o Mileage (vehicles)
o Number of on-off cycles (heating systems)
o Number of landings (landing gear)
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Condition-based maintenance
• Examples
o Ball bearings: vibrations around the bearing
o Metal parts: crack length
o Car engine: engine-oil gauge
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Exercise
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Exercise
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Uncertainty in Maintenance Operations
known unknown
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Probability and Reliability Theory
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Probability Refresher
𝑅 𝑡 = 1 − 𝐹𝑇 𝑡 (links 𝑅 𝑡 to 𝐹𝑇 𝑡 )
𝑑𝑅 𝑡
= −𝑓𝑇 𝑡 (links 𝑅 𝑡 to 𝑓𝑇 𝑡 )
𝑑𝑡
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Probability Refresher
• Variability of Time-to-Failure: 𝑡 2 𝑓𝑇 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
0
2
Var 𝑇 = 𝐸 𝑇−𝐸 𝑇
=𝐸 𝑇 2 − 2𝑇𝐸 𝑇 + 𝐸 𝑇 2
=𝐸 𝑇 2 − 2𝐸 𝑇 𝐸 𝑇 + 𝐸 𝑇 2
=𝐸 𝑇2 − 𝐸 𝑇 2
• Coefficient of Variation:
𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑇
𝑐𝑇 =
𝐸(𝑇) PAGE 20
Probability Refresher
• Sometimes, a component does not degrade with time but with the
number of on-off cycles (e.g., landing gear of an aircraft degrades with
the number of landings).
• Then, time to failure is modelled as a discrete random variable.
• For all the results we see today, there are equivalents for discrete random
variables, i.e., replace integrals with summations.
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Memoryless Property of the Exponential
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Failure Rates
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Failure Rates
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Failure Rate Function
𝑃 𝑇 ∈ 𝑡, 𝑡 + 𝑑𝑡
𝑃 𝑇 ∈ 𝑡, 𝑡 + 𝑑𝑡 𝑇 > 𝑡 =
𝑃 𝑇>𝑡
𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
≈ = ℎ 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
1−𝐹 𝑡
Represents the instantaneous failure
rate of a t-year old component.
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Failure Rate Function
𝑡
o It then follows that 𝑅 𝑡 = 𝑒 − 0 ℎ 𝑢 d𝑢 .
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Failure Rate Function
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Failure Rate Function: Summary
𝑑ℎ 𝑡
• If >0
𝑑𝑡
o The failure rate is an increasing function of time
o Component degrades over time (wear-out)
o The time to failure has an IFR
𝑑ℎ 𝑡
• If <0
𝑑𝑡
o The failure rate is a decreasing function of time
o Component becomes more reliable over time (infant mortality)
o The time to failure has a DFR
o E.g., Electronic components in burn-in period
𝑑ℎ 𝑡
• If =0
𝑑𝑡
o The failure rate is constant
o Random failures that are not caused by a wear out
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Commonly Used Probability Distributions
• Exponential distribution
• Uniform distribution
• Erlang distribution
• Gamma distribution
• Weibull distribution
• Poisson distribution
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Exponential distribution
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Uniform distribution
𝑥−𝑎
𝑎≤𝑥≤𝑏
𝑏−𝑎
• 𝐹 𝑥 = 0 𝑥≤𝑎
1 𝑏≤𝑥
0 𝑥<𝑎
• ℎ 𝑥 = 1
𝑎≤𝑥≤𝑏 increasing failure rate (wear out)
𝑏−𝑥
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Erlang distribution
1
• If 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , … , 𝐸𝑘 are IID exponential random variables with mean ,
𝜆
then 𝑋 = 𝑘𝑖=1 𝐸𝑖 has an Erlang distribution with shape parameter
𝑘 ∈ {1,2, … } and rate parameter 𝜆 > 0.
𝜆𝑘 𝑥 𝑘−1 −𝜆𝑥
• 𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑒 ,𝑥≥0
𝑘−1 !
𝑛
𝑘−1 (𝜆𝑥)
• 𝐹 𝑥 =1− 𝑛=0 𝑛! 𝑒 −𝜆𝑥 , 𝑥 ≥ 0
𝑘 𝑘 1 𝜆
• 𝐸𝑋 = ;𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋 = ; 𝑐𝑋 = ; ℎ 𝑥 = 𝑘−1 !
𝜆 𝜆2 𝑘 𝑘−1
𝑛=0𝑛! (𝜆𝑥)𝑘−1−𝑛
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Gamma distribution
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Gamma distribution
𝑓(𝑥) 𝐹(𝑥)
𝑥 𝑥
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Weibull distribution
• The time until failure of a component is the shortest time until failure
of any of the subcomponents:
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Weibull distribution
𝑥 𝛽 𝑥 𝛽
𝛽𝑥 𝛽−1 − 𝜂 −
• 𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑒 , 𝐹 𝑥 =1− 𝑒 𝜂 ,𝑥≥0
𝜂𝛽
• 𝛽 > 0 : shape parameter; 𝜂 > 0 : scale parameter
𝛽 𝛽−1
• ℎ 𝑥 = 𝑥
𝜂𝛽
• For 𝛽 > 1 failure rate is increasing; 𝑋 has an IFR
• For 0 < 𝛽 < 1 failure rate is decreasing; 𝑋 has a DFR
• For 𝛽 = 1 failure rate is constant; 𝑋 has exponential dist. with mean 𝜂
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Weibull distribution
1
′ −𝛽
• 𝑌~ Weibull with parameters 𝛽′ = 𝛽 & 𝜂 = 𝜂𝑛
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Poisson distribution
1
• 𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋 = 𝐸 𝑋 = 𝜇; 𝑐𝑋 =
𝜇 𝜇=1
𝜇=4
𝜇
• 𝑝𝑥 = 𝑝 ,𝑥 ∈ 1, 2, … 𝜇 = 10
𝑥 𝑥−1
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Conclusion
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