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1CK60 Maintenance and Service Logistics

Lecture #1

Introduction to Maintenance &


Refresher in Probability

Dr. Alp Akcay


Who am I?

Alp Akcay
Assistant Professor in OPAC group (IE&IS)
Atlas 4.408
A.E.Akcay@tue.nl

• PhD in Operations Management


o Carnegie Mellon University, USA
• Research
o Data-Driven Optimization
o Planning & Control in Manufacturing and Maintenance
• Teaching
o Maintenance and Service Logistics
o Manufacturing Technology (MSE)

PAGE 1
Lectures and Instructions on Maintenance

Lecture 1 (September 30) Lecture 2 (October 3)


 Introduction to Maintenance Modeling and  Renewal Processes
Optimization  Renewal Reward Theory
 Refresher in Probability & Reliability Exercise #2
Exercise #1
Instructions
Lecture 3 (October 7) Lecture 4 (October 10)
 Deterministic Maintenance Models  Block Replacement Policy
 Failure Based Policy  Block Replacement Policy with Minimal
 Age Replacement Policy Repair
 Exercise #3  Exercise #4
Instructions

Lecture 5 (October 14) Lecture 6 (October 17)


 Intro. to Condition-Based Maintenance  Inspection Policy for Delay-Time Degradation
 Degradation Models (part II)
 Inspection Policy for Delay-Time  Exercise #6
Degradation (part I)
 Exercise #5
Instructions

Lecture 7 (October 21)


 Guest lecturer Lonneke Teeuwsen on
“Maintenance optimization at Océ”

PAGE 2
Course Materials

• Lecture presentations
• Typically two versions (i.e., before-lecture and after-lecture)
• The after-lecture version includes all the answers/solutions.

• Exercise sets

• Handouts
• Elementary Maintenance Models, Arts (2014) for Lectures 1-4.
• Condition-Based Maintenance, Akcay (2018) for Lectures 5-6.

Relevant course material will be uploaded before each lecture

PAGE 3
Lesson Plan for Today

Lecture 1 (September 30) Lecture 2 (October 3)


 Introduction to Maintenance Modeling and  Renewal Processes
Optimization  Renewal Reward Theory
 Refresher in Probability & Reliability Exercise #2
Exercise #1
Instructions
Lecture 3 (October 7) Lecture 4 (October 10)
 Deterministic Maintenance Models  Block Replacement Policy
 Failure Based Policy  Block Replacement Policy with Minimal
 Age Replacement Policy Repair
 Exercise #3  Exercise #4
Instructions

Lecture 5 (October 14) Lecture 6 (October 17)


 Intro. to Condition-Based Maintenance  Inspection Policy for Delay-Time Degradation
 Degradation Models (part II)
 Inspection Policy for Delay-Time  Exercise #6
Degradation (part I)
 Exercise #5
Instructions

Lecture 7 (October 21)


 Guest lecturer Lonneke Teeuwsen on
“Maintenance optimization at Océ”

PAGE 4
Learning Objectives

• By the end of today’s lecture, you will be able to


o Reflect on the importance of maintenance for businesses
o Explain the differences between widely-used maintenance
strategies
o Describe the role of uncertainty in maintenance operations
o Apply the fundamental concepts of probability and reliability theory
[prerequisites for the rest of the course]

PAGE 5
Why is maintenance important?

• The availability of capital goods is crucial to keep the primary


processes of their users/owners running:
o Aircrafts
o Trains
o Wafer-steppers (essential part for manufacturing microchips)
o MRI scanners

• Objective of maintenance planning?

PAGE 6
Why is maintenance important?

• The cost of maintenance and unavailability of a capital asset over


its lifetime (e.g., spare parts, service tools, unplanned downtimes)
is a multiple of the acquisition price.

Source: Oner et al. (2007)

• Oner et al. (2007) estimate these costs as 3 to 4 times for a


specific engineer-to-order system.

PAGE 7
Why is maintenance important?

Source: Van Dongen (2011)

PAGE 8
Why is maintenance important?

• E.g. Joint Strike Fighter is 60M € per unit and 120M € spent
on maintenance over thirty years.

• In general, as a capital asset gets bigger, more complex and


more expensive, the proportion of the maintenance costs to
the acquisition cost increases.

PAGE 9
What is needed for maintenance?

PAGE 10
Maintenance strategies

Maintenance
Strategies

Modificative maintenance Preventive maintenance Breakdown corrective


maintenance

Usage/time based Condition based


maintenance maintenance

Component Block replacement Condition Periodic


replacement and/or and/or overhaul monitoring inspections
overhaul

PAGE 11
Maintenance strategies

Modificative maintenance:
• Interchanging a part with a technically more advanced one to make
the equipment perform better; it is non-recurring.

Breakdown corrective maintenance:


• A part is replaced upon a failure (also known as failure-based
maintenance policy).
• Ideal for parts that do not wear out; e.g, electronics.

Preventive maintenance:
• A part is preventively replaced before its failure occurs (notice that a
part can fail before its planned replacement time).
• Ideal for parts that wear out; e.g, machine tools.
• Two types: Usage based or condition based.

PAGE 12
Usage-based maintenance

• Total usage of a component is measured and maintenance is


conducted when a certain usage threshold is reached.

• Measure of usage:
o Calendar time
o Mileage (vehicles)
o Number of on-off cycles (heating systems)
o Number of landings (landing gear)

• Maintenance can be performed on component level:


o Component replacement

• If a high setup cost is involved with maintenance,


o replacement of multiple components can be carried out simultaneously
at fixed time intervals (block replacement).

PAGE 13
Condition-based maintenance

• Actual condition of a component is measured/monitored and


maintenance is performed based on this.
• Two types of monitoring:
• Inspection based monitoring: The condition of a component is
measured periodically by inspections (periodic inspections)
• Continuous monitoring: The condition of a component is continuously
monitored through sensors.

• Examples
o Ball bearings: vibrations around the bearing
o Metal parts: crack length
o Car engine: engine-oil gauge

PAGE 14
Exercise

• Philips Consumer Lifestyle (PCL) at


Drachten produces high-end shaver
caps using an advanced manufacturing
technique called Electro-Chemical
Machining (ECM).
• ECM tools are inspected at every 10K
caps made since the last inspection.
• An ECM tool is “retired” after making
100K caps.

Q: How do you classify the maintenance policy used by PCL?

PAGE 15
Exercise

• Philips Healthcare (PHC) has imaging


systems (iXR, MRI scanners) deployed
all over the world.
• Many systems are connected to the
internet and send real-time information
on the status of critical components.
• Remote monitoring engineers at PHC
take action based on this information.

Q: How do you classify the maintenance policy used by PHC?

PAGE 16
Uncertainty in Maintenance Operations

Timing of maintenance action

known unknown

Condition based maintenance


Usage based maintenance (condition monitoring)
known
Change oil filter every 10K km Your car signals “tire pressure
Content of low”
maintenance
Condition based maintenance
action
(periodic inspections) Breakdown corrective
maintenance
unknown
Check suspension system
every two years An electronic control unit fails

Q: What is the advantage of being “known”?

PAGE 17
Probability and Reliability Theory

What kind of information is needed to formulate a decision


model for maintenance planning?

𝑷(𝑻 < 𝒕) 𝑷(𝑻 > 𝒕)

PAGE 18
Probability Refresher

• Let 𝑇 denote the time to failure of a component, 𝑇≥0


• Suppose 𝑇 is a continuous random variable:
𝑡
o (cumulative) distribution function: 𝐹𝑇 𝑡 = 𝑃 𝑇 ≤ 𝑡 = 𝑓
0 𝑇
𝑥 𝑑𝑥
𝑑
o (probability) density function: 𝑓𝑇 𝑡 = 𝐹 𝑡
𝑑𝑡 𝑇

• Reliability of the component at time 𝑡 is


• the probability a component survives beyond time 𝑡

• denoted by 𝑅 𝑡 = 1 − 𝐹𝑇 𝑡 = 𝑡 𝑓𝑇 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 (also called survival
function)

𝑅 𝑡 = 1 − 𝐹𝑇 𝑡 (links 𝑅 𝑡 to 𝐹𝑇 𝑡 )

𝑑𝑅 𝑡
= −𝑓𝑇 𝑡 (links 𝑅 𝑡 to 𝑓𝑇 𝑡 )
𝑑𝑡

PAGE 19
Probability Refresher

Recall from Calculus: Integration by part


• Mean-Time-To-Failure (MTTF): (Check out the handout for derivation)
∞ ∞ ∞
𝑑𝑅 𝑡 ∞
E 𝑇 = 𝑡𝑓𝑇 𝑡 𝑑𝑡 = − 𝑡 𝑑𝑡 = −𝑡𝑅 𝑡 + 𝑅 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
0 0 𝑑𝑡 0 0

= 𝑅 𝑡 𝑑𝑡 (Notice lim 𝑅 𝑡 = 0)
𝑡→∞
0

= 𝑃 𝑇 > 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
0 ∞

• Variability of Time-to-Failure: 𝑡 2 𝑓𝑇 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
0
2
Var 𝑇 = 𝐸 𝑇−𝐸 𝑇
=𝐸 𝑇 2 − 2𝑇𝐸 𝑇 + 𝐸 𝑇 2
=𝐸 𝑇 2 − 2𝐸 𝑇 𝐸 𝑇 + 𝐸 𝑇 2

=𝐸 𝑇2 − 𝐸 𝑇 2
• Coefficient of Variation:
𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑇
𝑐𝑇 =
𝐸(𝑇) PAGE 20
Probability Refresher

• Sometimes, a component does not degrade with time but with the
number of on-off cycles (e.g., landing gear of an aircraft degrades with
the number of landings).
• Then, time to failure is modelled as a discrete random variable.
• For all the results we see today, there are equivalents for discrete random
variables, i.e., replace integrals with summations.

PAGE 21
Memoryless Property of the Exponential

A random variable 𝑇 is said to be memoryless if


𝑃 𝑇 > 𝑠 + 𝑡 𝑇 > 𝑠 = 𝑃(𝑇 > 𝑡) for all 𝑠, 𝑡 ≥ 0.

Q: Show that 𝑇~𝐸𝑥𝑝(𝜆) is memoryless (i.e., 𝜆 denotes the rate of the


exponential distribution):

Q: Does this seem realistic for a lightbulb?

PAGE 22
Failure Rates

Q: What are some real-life examples whose lifetime can be modeled


by a random variable 𝑇 such that 𝑃 𝑇 > 𝑠 + 𝑡 𝑇 > 𝑠 goes down as 𝑠
goes up?

Distributions for which 𝑃 𝑇 > 𝑠 + 𝑡 𝑇 > 𝑠 goes down as 𝑠 goes up are


said to have increasing failure rate; i.e., the component is more and
more likely to fail as time goes on.

PAGE 23
Failure Rates

Q: What are some real-life examples whose lifetime can be modeled


by a random variable 𝑇 such that 𝑃 𝑇 > 𝑠 + 𝑡 𝑇 > 𝑠 goes up as 𝑠
goes up?

Distributions for which 𝑃 𝑇 > 𝑠 + 𝑡 𝑇 > 𝑠 goes up as 𝑠 goes up are


said to have decreasing failure rate; i.e., the component is less likely
to fail as time goes on.

PAGE 24
Failure Rate Function

• The failure rate function ℎ 𝑡 (also known as hazard-rate function) is


defined as:
𝑓𝑇 (𝑡)
ℎ 𝑡 =
1 − 𝐹𝑇 (𝑡) 𝑅𝑇 (𝑡)
where 𝑓𝑇 (𝑡) is the pdf and 𝐹𝑇 (𝑡) is the cdf of the random variable 𝑇.

• To interpret this expression, consider the probability that a 𝑡-year old


item will fail during the next 𝑑𝑡 seconds:

𝑃 𝑇 ∈ 𝑡, 𝑡 + 𝑑𝑡
𝑃 𝑇 ∈ 𝑡, 𝑡 + 𝑑𝑡 𝑇 > 𝑡 =
𝑃 𝑇>𝑡
𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
≈ = ℎ 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
1−𝐹 𝑡
Represents the instantaneous failure
rate of a t-year old component.
PAGE 25
Failure Rate Function

• Failure rate at time 𝑡:


o how likely a component will fail in the next small time interval, relative
to length of that time interval
o instantaneous expected number of failures per time unit

• Reliability function can be obtained from the failure rate function:


𝑑𝑅 𝑡 𝑓𝑇 𝑡 1 𝑑𝑅 𝑡
o Recall: 𝑓𝑇 𝑡 = − and ℎ 𝑡 = ℎ 𝑡 =−
𝑑𝑡 𝑅 𝑡 𝑅 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
o Notice that
𝑡 𝑡 1 𝑑𝑅 𝑢
o 0
ℎ 𝑢 𝑑𝑢 = − 0 𝑅 𝑢 𝑑𝑢
𝑑𝑢 = − 𝑙𝑛 𝑅 𝑡 − 𝑙𝑛 𝑅 0 = − 𝑙𝑛 𝑅 𝑡
𝑑 ln 𝑅(𝑢) 𝑅 ′ (𝑢)
=
𝑑𝑢 𝑅(𝑢)

𝑡
o It then follows that 𝑅 𝑡 = 𝑒 − 0 ℎ 𝑢 d𝑢 .
PAGE 26
Failure Rate Function

PAGE 27
Failure Rate Function: Summary

𝑑ℎ 𝑡
• If >0
𝑑𝑡
o The failure rate is an increasing function of time
o Component degrades over time (wear-out)
o The time to failure has an IFR

𝑑ℎ 𝑡
• If <0
𝑑𝑡
o The failure rate is a decreasing function of time
o Component becomes more reliable over time (infant mortality)
o The time to failure has a DFR
o E.g., Electronic components in burn-in period

𝑑ℎ 𝑡
• If =0
𝑑𝑡
o The failure rate is constant
o Random failures that are not caused by a wear out

PAGE 28
Commonly Used Probability Distributions

• Exponential distribution
• Uniform distribution
• Erlang distribution
• Gamma distribution
• Weibull distribution
• Poisson distribution

PAGE 29
Exponential distribution

• Takes values on (0,∞)


• PDF: 𝑓 𝑥 = 𝜆𝑒 −𝜆𝑥 , 𝑥 ≥ 0
• CDF: 𝐹 𝑥 = 1 − 𝑒 −𝜆𝑥 , 𝑥 ≥ 0

• 𝜆 > 0 is the rate parameter


o also called inverse scale parameter
1 1 𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋
• 𝐸 𝑋 = ; 𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋 = ; 𝑐𝑋 = =1
𝜆 𝜆2 𝐸𝑋2

• Important in operations management and reliability engineering due


to its memoryless property:
o Remaining lifetime of a part has the same as the original lifetime.
• ℎ 𝑥 = 𝜆  constant failure rate

PAGE 30
Uniform distribution

• Takes values on (𝑎, 𝑏)


1
𝑎≤𝑥≤𝑏
• 𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑏−𝑎
0 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒

𝑥−𝑎
𝑎≤𝑥≤𝑏
𝑏−𝑎
• 𝐹 𝑥 = 0 𝑥≤𝑎
1 𝑏≤𝑥

𝑎+𝑏 (𝑏−𝑎)2 𝑏−𝑎


• 𝐸𝑋 = ; 𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋 = ; 𝑐𝑋 =
2 12 3(𝑎+𝑏)

0 𝑥<𝑎
• ℎ 𝑥 = 1
𝑎≤𝑥≤𝑏  increasing failure rate (wear out)
𝑏−𝑥

PAGE 31
Erlang distribution

1
• If 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , … , 𝐸𝑘 are IID exponential random variables with mean ,
𝜆
then 𝑋 = 𝑘𝑖=1 𝐸𝑖 has an Erlang distribution with shape parameter
𝑘 ∈ {1,2, … } and rate parameter 𝜆 > 0.

𝜆𝑘 𝑥 𝑘−1 −𝜆𝑥
• 𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑒 ,𝑥≥0
𝑘−1 !

𝑛
𝑘−1 (𝜆𝑥)
• 𝐹 𝑥 =1− 𝑛=0 𝑛! 𝑒 −𝜆𝑥 , 𝑥 ≥ 0

𝑘 𝑘 1 𝜆
• 𝐸𝑋 = ;𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋 = ; 𝑐𝑋 = ; ℎ 𝑥 = 𝑘−1 !
𝜆 𝜆2 𝑘 𝑘−1
𝑛=0𝑛! (𝜆𝑥)𝑘−1−𝑛

o If 𝑘 = 1  exponential distribution, hence constant failure rate


o If 𝑘 > 1  increasing failure rate

PAGE 32
Gamma distribution

• Erlang distribution can be generalized by allowing 𝑘 to take non-


integer values.
• All the factorials in the Erlang distribution is replaced by their
equivalents in Gamma function.
𝛽 𝛼 𝑥 𝛼−1 𝑥
• 𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑒 −𝛽𝑥 , 𝐹 𝑥 = 𝑓 𝑢 𝑑𝑢 , 𝑥 ≥ 0
Γ 𝛼 0
Gamma function; see Handout
• 𝛼 > 0 : shape parameter; 𝛽 > 0 : rate parameter
𝛼 𝛼 1
• 𝐸 𝑋 = ;𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋 = 2 ; 𝑐𝑋 =
𝛽 𝛽 𝛼

o For 𝛼 > 1  failure rate is increasing


o For 𝛼 = 1  failure rate is constant
o For 0 < 𝛼 < 1  failure rate is decreasing

PAGE 33
Gamma distribution

𝑓(𝑥) 𝐹(𝑥)

𝑥 𝑥

𝜃 = 1/𝜆 (scale parameter)

PAGE 34
Weibull distribution

• The Weibull distribution is common in reliability engineering.

• It provides a good fit with failure data in many applications and


arises naturally in theory.

• The time until failure of a component is the shortest time until failure
of any of the subcomponents:

o Let 𝑌𝑖 denote the time until the failure of sub-component 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑛.


o The time until the failure of the component is 𝑋 = min{𝑌1 , 𝑌2 , … , 𝑌𝑛 }.
o If 𝑌1 , 𝑌2 , … , 𝑌𝑛 takes finite nonnegative values, 𝑋 will approach the Weibull
as 𝑛 goes to infinity.
o Compare this result to the central limit theorem.

PAGE 35
Weibull distribution

𝑥 𝛽 𝑥 𝛽
𝛽𝑥 𝛽−1 − 𝜂 −
• 𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑒 , 𝐹 𝑥 =1− 𝑒 𝜂 ,𝑥≥0
𝜂𝛽
• 𝛽 > 0 : shape parameter; 𝜂 > 0 : scale parameter
𝛽 𝛽−1
• ℎ 𝑥 = 𝑥
𝜂𝛽
• For 𝛽 > 1  failure rate is increasing; 𝑋 has an IFR
• For 0 < 𝛽 < 1  failure rate is decreasing; 𝑋 has a DFR
• For 𝛽 = 1  failure rate is constant; 𝑋 has exponential dist. with mean 𝜂

PAGE 36
Weibull distribution

• Suppose that 𝑋1 , 𝑋2 , . . . , 𝑋𝑛 are independent and Weibull distributed


random variables with shape parameter 𝛽 and scale parameter 𝜂.
• 𝑋1 to 𝑋𝑛 are the lifetimes of 𝑛 components in a serial configuration.
• 𝑌: the time to failure of this system  𝑌 = min(𝑋1 , 𝑋2 , . . . , 𝑋𝑛 )

1
′ −𝛽
• 𝑌~ Weibull with parameters 𝛽′ = 𝛽 & 𝜂 = 𝜂𝑛

PAGE 37
Poisson distribution

• The Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution on the non-


negative integers:
𝑥
−𝜇 𝜇
𝑝𝑥 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑥 = 𝑒 , 𝑥 ∈ 0, 1, 2, …
𝑥!

1
• 𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋 = 𝐸 𝑋 = 𝜇; 𝑐𝑋 =
𝜇 𝜇=1
𝜇=4
𝜇
• 𝑝𝑥 = 𝑝 ,𝑥 ∈ 1, 2, … 𝜇 = 10
𝑥 𝑥−1

PAGE 38
Conclusion

• What did we learn today?


• A taxonomy of maintenance strategies
• An overview of prerequisites from the probability and
reliability theory
• Calculating failure rate functions and interpreting them
• A survey of commonly used probability distribution functions
in reliability engineering

• Do not forget to work on the problems in Exercise #1.

PAGE 39

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