Lahore University of Management Sciences

MATH 230 – Probability

Spring 2018-2019
Instructor Hira Nadeem ; Shaheena Bashir
Room No. 9-139 ; 9-151
Office Hours TBA ; Monday/Wednesday (11:00 am-12:00 noon or by appointment)
Email hira.nadeem@lums.edu.pk ; shaheena.bashir@lums.edu.pk
Telephone 8294 ; 3438
Secretary/TA Shazia Zafar & Noreen Sohail / TBA )
TA Office TBA
Hours
Course URL (if Math.lums.edu.pk/moodle
any)

Course Basics
Credit Hours 3
Lecture(s) Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week 2 Duration 75min
Recitation/Lab (per week) Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week Duration
Tutorial (per week) Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week 1 Duration 75 min

Course Distribution
Core Core course for all SSE majors
Elective
Open for Student All students
Category
Close for Student None
Category

COURSE DESCRIPTION

This is a first course in probability which provides basic concepts related to modelling of chance events in practical
life. It provides preparation for further courses in stochastic processes, statistics, statistical mechanics and an
understanding of the probability concepts essential for students who want to pursue studies in physical sciences,
social sciences, economics, and engineering. The course starts with an introduction of probability terms and
methods of computing simple and conditional probabilities. The concepts of discrete and continuous random
variables are covered. Special discrete and continuous probability distributions are explored with their real life
applications.

COURSE PREREQUISITE(S)


 MATH 101-Calculus I

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COURSE OBJECTIVES

  Student will learn what probability is

  Learn different concepts of probability & different ways of expressing probability
  Learn how probability is helpful in quantification & modelling of everyday chance events to
provide scientifically valid conclusions.

Learning Outcomes
Having successfully completed the course the students will be able to
  Explain the concepts of probability, including conditional probability
  Explain the concepts of random variable, probability distribution, distribution function,
 expected value, variance and higher moments, and calculate expected values and probabilities
associated with the distributions of random variables
 Define basic discrete and continuous distributions, be able to apply them
 Understand & apply Central Limit Theorem in different problems.
Grading Breakup and Policy
Assignment(s):
Home Work:
Quiz(s): (Best 5 out of 7) 30%
Class Participation:
Attendance:
Midterm Examination: 30%
Project:
Final Examination: 40%

Examination Detail

Yes/No: Yes
Combine Separate: Combined
Midterm
Duration: 75min
Exam
Preferred Date: 1:00p.m – 3:00p.m (March 16, 2019)
Exam Specifications: Closed book/Closed notes/No calculator

Yes/No: Yes
Final Combine Separate: Combine
Exam Duration: 180min
Exam Specifications: Closed book/Closed notes/No calculator

What you get out of the course depends on what you put into the course.

Quizzes
Quizzes will be held in the final 10 – 15 minutes of the class.
The purpose of the quizzes is to assess your participation.
 Missed Quiz Policy: Missed quiz earn a mark of zero. No exceptions, no medical certificate or other
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documentation accepted.
 Best 5 out of 7 quizzes will be considered.

Term Test

Term test will be held in the lecture room on the specified date (i.e 9:00 a.m – 10:15 a.m (March 16, 2019). There is
no extra time for late entrants.

Tentative Lecture Schedule

Serial Week of Topic Textbook

Reference
1. 21-Jan Introduction of Randomness Section 1.1
Overview of Set Theory.

Basic Principles of Counting Section 1.2

2. 28-Jan Permutation, Combination, Multinomial Coefficients Section 1.3-1.5
3. 4- Feb Sample Space & Events Section 2.1-2.2
Axioms of Probability Section 2.3-2.5
Probability of Events
4. 11-Feb Conditional Probability & Independence Section 3.1
Conditional Probability Section 3.2
Law of Total Probability; Bayes’s Theorem Section 3.3
Independent Events Section 3.4
5. 18-Feb Random Variables
Discrete Random Variables; Expected Value; Expectation of a function Section 4.1-4.5
of Random Variables; Variance
6. 25-Feb Bernoulli & Binomial Random Variable; Poisson Random Variable Section 4.6-4.7
7. 4-March Other Discrete Distributions. Section 4.8

Review for Mid-Term

8. 11-March Continuous Random Variable Section 5.1-5.3

Mid Term: 1:00p.m – 3:00p.m (March 16, 2019).
(Includes material covered till Section 4.8)
9. 18-March
Break
10. 25-March Normal Random Variables Section 5.4
11. 1-April Exponential Random Variables Section 5.5
12. 8-April Joint Distributions Section 6.1-6.3
13. 15-April Conditional Distributions; Discrete Case, Continuous Case Section 6.4-6.5
14. 22-April Properties of Expectation Section 7.1-7.5
15. 29-April Limit Theorems. Section 8.1-8.3
Central Limit Theorem and applications
16. 6-May Review for Final Exam
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Textbook(s)/Supplementary Readings
Required Textbook:
A First Course in Probability, 9th Edition, Sheldon Ross
The required text will be supplemented with notes and exercises.

Additional References:
Introduction to Probability Models, 10th Edition, Sheldon Ross
Probability for Dummies, 2006. Deborah Rumsey.