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23 DEC 2019
23 DEC 2018 Company Report
BUY
Target Price: Rs 495
Current Market Price : 420
Potential Upside : 18%
Stock data
No. of share (Cr) : 77.2
Market cap (Rs.Cr.) : 33181.6
Price performance*
160
120
80
40
Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19
BSE Sensex Embassy Off.REIT
What are the benefits of REIT’s to investors? Annualized returns by economic cycle (1991-2018)
REITs, across the globe, have performed at comparable levels to 30
broad equity indices. For ex. REITs have averaged 11.1%, while 22.8
the S&P 500 has averaged 9.8% over the last 28 years. They 20 15.6
have shown low volatility and recession protection similar to 11.3 11.1
10.6 9.8
defensive equity stocks 10 7.1
REITs have also shown lower correlation with other asset classes
like Equity, Debt, Commodities. Thus, providing an excellent
0
choice for diversification -0.2
REIT’s provide downside protection during economic downturns
(10)
as the underlying cash flow is contractually bound by long term -9.6
leases thereby ensuring a steady dividend yield at all times.
(20)
Overall, REIT’s provide characteristics of both debt and equity. -17.7
Equity Characteristics: Short term volatility due to market price Early Cycle Mid Cycle Late Cycle Recession All Periods
movement, capital appreciation, growth levers built in lease US REITS S&P 500
contracts. Debt Characteristics: Stable dividend yields backed by
cash flows from long term leases (7-9 years) of tenants, high
correlation to inflation hence providing inflation protection
REIT’s have shown lower volatility & higher return compared to S&P 500
Sources: The Conference Board, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Thomson Reuters, Cohen & Steers, Betas, NYU Stern, SEBI, Axis Securities
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
Embassy Office Parks is the owner of premium office portfolio in India that serves as corporate infrastructure to multinational tenants. Company’s
Portfolio comprises of seven Class A office parks and four city-center office buildings totaling 33 msf (million square feet) of total area. They provide
strategic amenities, including 2 completed and 2 under-construction hotels totaling 1,096 keys, food courts, childcare and employee transportation
facilities
Their Portfolio is strategically located in India’s four key office markets of Bengaluru, Pune, Mumbai and Noida which are amongst the top-performing
in India and account for 72% of total Grade A office stocks. In the last 5 years these markets have seen one of the highest absorption of premium
office space in the world beating New York, San Francisco, Shanghai, Central London and Tokyo
Their Occupancy is at 94.7% with weighted average lease expiry of 7.2 years. They have 165 tenants comprising a mix of blue-chip multinational
and Indian corporates, such as JP Morgan, DBS, Swiss Re, Google, McKinsey, IBM and L&T Technology Services. Approximately 45% of Gross
Rentals come from Fortune 500 companies. Nearly, 53% of our Gross Rentals are derived from tenants in technology sector, with the remainder
coming from various industries including financial services, healthcare and telecommunications. Embassy REIT is backed by strong sponsors; Blackstone
LLP, the largest alternative investment firm in the world and Embassy Group which is a local expert and has developed 45 msf of real estate in India
Noida
33msf Largest REIT in Asia 165 Blue Chip MNC’s
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Embassy Office Parks REIT, is the owner of premium office portfolio in India that serves as corporate infrastructure to multinational tenants.
It is the largest REIT in Asia and the first REIT to get listed in India. Its primary source of revenue is through long term rental contracts from
world class tenants which makes the cash flows for the company quite stable. Embassy REIT’s business has multiple growth levers
(discussed in detail in later sections) that is supported by a strong services sector and a growing, tech-savvy, low cost human capital.
Embassy REITs operational execution is one of the best amongst REIT’s the world over due to its highly experienced management team that
has global experience in property management. Embassy REIT is backed by strong sponsors; Blackstone LLP, the largest alternative
investment firm in the world and Embassy Group which is a local expert and has developed 45 msf of real estate in India. Additionally,
REIT as an asset class has shown comparable returns to broad equity markets (and low correlations) with downside protection during
recession making it an attractive investment class
We expect revenues/earnings to grow at CAGR of 16% / 41.5% respectively over FY19-22E driven by
We initiate coverage with “BUY” rating and a target price of Rs 495, implies a 18% upside
Source: Company, Axis Securities
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
Indian Commercial Real Estate has one of the lowest rents globally Lower rents make it favorable to set up offices for MNC’s in India
12000 300000
Indian markets charge 1/5h to 1/7th of the rent charged in
other major office markets, making it extremely attractive for 8000 200000
The Capital values are also very low (1/5th of global values), 0 0
NCR
Munich
Tokyo
San Fransisco
Bengaluru
Pune
Sydney
London
Mumbai
Los Angeles
New York
Hong Kong
Beijing
Shanghai
Singapore
which makes investment in office real estate very cost effective
India also has abundant English speaking talent at 1/10th the
cost of a developed country employee which provides the fuel
Rs psf/year Avergae Capital Values (Rs psf)
to drive the services industry
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Source: Company, Axis Securities
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
Embassy REIT Markets have been leading office absorption Office stock absorption of select global commercial hubs- India Leading
Favorable rental profiles, high cap rates and favorable 60 50%
demographics has led to the highest absorption of Grade A 40
25%
office stocks in last five years as compared to major Grade A 20
office markets in the world 0 0%
Mumbai…
Embassy REIT is present in four key office markets of India (i.e.
Tokyo
Munich
Bengaluru
San Fransisco
London
Pune
Delhi NCR
Beijing
Sydney
Hong Kong
Los Angeles
New York
Singapore
Shanghai
Bengaluru, Pune, Mumbai, NCR) which cover nearly 3/4th of
the total Grade A office market in India
Last 5 year average absorption as % of total stock stood at
35% for Embassy REIT Markets as compared to only 12% for
rest of the major global markets Additionally, office absorption Cumulative Absorption in msf (2013-2018)
in Bengaluru alone is higher than combined absorption of Last 5 years' absorption as a % total stock
Shanghai, Beijing and Hong Kong
Strong Demand-Supply Fundamentals favor a growing rental Embassy REIT properties have a superior demand outlook as
market compared to its markets
40 25%
Embassy REIT’s markets have witnessed strong absorption with
20%
30
limited supply. The average absorption as percentage of supply
15%
20 stood at 99.7%
10%
10
Consequently, vacancy has decline steadily by 540 bps from
5%
CY2014 to CY2019
0 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E This trend is likely to continue and will keep demand for Grade
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
Embassy REIT’s tenant profile is dominated by services sector (contributing to 90% of gross rentals) with technology sector contributing nearly
53% to Gross Rentals. Hence, services sector growth becomes an important proxy parameter for Embassy REITs rental growth
The services sector is the key driver of the Indian economy with contribution of 54% to FY19 GVA (Gross Value Added). Led by technology
and financial services, it has grown by 7.5% in FY19 contributing to 60% of GVA growth. While Technology sector alone has grown by
8.3% in FY19. Below Info graphics present factors that will keep driving demand of services sector
Factors that give a significant advantage to services sector in India Additional Expected Office Demand (in msf) from services sector
(2019-22E)
Services sector is driven by human capital and India 300
Large and has the largest talent pool in the world with with 35% 2
growing, of population in the age bracket of 15-34 years 250
16
English India has been leading new generation technology
Speaking businesses with 8K+ digital solution providers
200 52
talent pool employing ~ 5mn employees (i.e. ~75% of the
global digital talent base.)
150
81
100
Due to lower salary levels and more affordable real
estate, India-based technology services are
Competitive approximately 7 times cheaper compared to the US- 50 102
Cost based technology services
Advantage India’s cost competitiveness has amounted to more 0
than US$ 200 bn in cost savings for clients in the Technology Financial Media and Ent Telecom Pharma R&D
past 5 years Services Network and IT
vendors
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
Hospitality and
Lease up of vacant space
other Value added services
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Embassy REIT assets have a built in contractual escalation of 10-15% with its clients every 3-5 year
Embassy REIT focuses on quality assets and best-in-class service and has been able to achieve 270 bps higher rental in FY19 as compared
to market rents
The superior quality of its tenant amenities has also enabled them to achieve an average occupancy of 94% consistently
over FY16-19
Management expects, contractual rent escalations to contribute ~36% of the total increase in revenue from operations over FY20E-21E.
In H1FY20, contractual escalations have contributed to 37% of revenue growth (YoY basis) and will be one of the most consistent sources of
revenue growth every year
Superior rental growth of Embassy REIT portfolio vis-à-vis markets Consistently higher committed occupancy for REIT portfolio
135
130
100%
Occupancy
95%
125
+270 bps 90% +950 bps
120
85%
115
110 80%
105 75%
100 70%
FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 CY2014 CY2015 CY2016 CY2017 CY2018 Q12019
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
Due to long dated contracts, typically of more than 7 years, there is an inherent mark to market (MTM) opportunity on expiry of contracts
This would give a revenue boost to Embassy REIT as and when leases come up for expiry and are re-leased at then prevailing market rates
Embassy REIT have re-leased 3.1 msf area at an average spread of ~42% above in place rents from FY2016 to FY2019
5.2 msf area is expected to expire between FY20E to FY23E, with an average re-leasing spread of 30% above in place rents giving a
~10% contribution in revenue growth from re-leasing
Embassy achieved ~42% average re-leasing Leasing-up at market rents on lease 20% of Gross Rent expires between
spread between FY16-19, indicating the managements expiry could provide 30% upside to FY20E–23E, which should contribute
ability to lease-up at market or higher rents on lease expiry revenue as per current rental trends to ~10% revenue growth in 4 years
9% 8.50%
60.70% Gross Rent Expiring
100 8%
Rs 86
80 7%
Rs 66
6%
60 4.90%
35.30% 34.90% 5%
26.60% 40 4% 3.50% 3.30%
8.5 20
49 3%
2%
0
1%
0%
In-Place Rent Market Rent FY2020E FY2021E FY2022E FY2023E
FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019
Year FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Year FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E
Area Re-leased (in msf) 0.3 1.1 0.5 1.2 MTM upside 50% 16% 65% 49%
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
Embassy REIT’s new properties have shown de-risked development with high pre-leasing trend
Embassy REIT has a vacant space of about 8 msf, which it has plans to build and lease up in the coming years
Embassy management focuses on de-risked brownfield expansion on existing land by pre-leasing properties ahead of development. For
example Embassy Oxygen, which completed in Nov’ 18, was 92% pre leased.
Approximately, 2.3 msf is at various stages of development (see chart below) and is expected to complete by FY22E. Of this 1.4 msf of office
development is tracking two quarters ahead of schedule due to strong demand from tenants.
Pre-leasing trends in the upcoming (1.4 msf space) have also shown strong traction with c23% already pre-leased.
Further, development work has already started in Embassy Manyata (1 msf) and Embassy Techzone (0.9 msf) ahead of schedule.
Development history; schedule – Tracking ahead of plan Filling up of vacant office space is near term priority for Embassy
1.6 Embassy REIT’s 5% vacancy is concentrated in three properties,
1.4 msf
1.4 development namely Embassy Techzone in Pune (~13% vacancy), Embassy
1.2 tracking ahead of Oxygen in Noida (~15% vacancy) and FIFC in Mumbai (~22%
schedule
1 vacancy).
(msf)
0.8
1.4
0.6 1.3 The high vacancy is because these buildings are either
0.4 0.9 0.8 0.9 constructed recently (Embassy Oxygen) or there is a transitory
0.6
0.2 0.5 vacancy due to upgrades and repositioning
0
FY2014 FY2016 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020E FY2021E FY2022E This is expected to be leased up in the next year and a half and
would provide ~ Rs 110 cr of revenue increase in FY19-21.
Manyata Oxygen Techzone
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
ROFO assets give long term growth visibility with 43 msf area identified for expansion
Embassy REIT has a Right of First Offer (ROFO) on assets owned by Embassy Sponsors. This gives them opportunity to expand to new markets
and diversify geographically
They have identified 4 such properties in Chennai (1) and Bengaluru (3) totaling an area of 43 msf
In Q2FY20, Embassy REIT received a ROFO notice for Embassy TechVillage in Bengaluru. This consists of 6.2 msf of completed area which
already has tenants in place and has 2.5 msf of under construction area
If the ROFO asset proves to be yield accretive (current yield ~5.6%) for REIT unit holders, management will go ahead and acquire the property.
Management discussed that they have a lower cost of equity v/s cost of debt and will find the optimum mix to invest in this property
We estimate that this acquisition, if materializes, could add to 20-25% to its NOI. We believe such regular acquisition of assets through ROFO
opportunities will keep boosting the unit price of stock. We have not accounted for ROFO acquisition impact in our estimates
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
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A comparison with REIT’s in the Asian markets clearly shows that Embassy REIT has higher dividend yield of 6-7% v/s other REIT’s yield
around or below 5% mark.
Another important differentiator is the significant revenue growth outlook for Embassy REIT as compared to its peers. CAGR Growth for
Embassy REIT in FY19-22E is expected to be 16.3% with long term growth pegged at above 10% whereas for other REITs it is around 5%.
Embassy REIT’s NOI margin profile of 85% is one of the best among REITs globally and nearly 10% higher than Ascendas India Trust which
also operates in Indian office space.
Debt to TEV (Total Equity Value) of Embassy REIT at ~11% (leverage ratio) is the lowest among global REITs, with averages ranging from
18% for US based REITs to 37% in European REITs. This also gives significant headroom to raise capital for growth.
Revenues
Total Area NOI Margin CAGR Growth Div Yield %
REIT Name Country (in mn $) EV/EBITDA
(msf) (FY2020E)) % (FY19-22E) (FY20E)
(FY20E) (FY20E)
Ascendas India Trust Singapore 18.2 702 75% 3.5 5.59 15.89
Embassy Office Parks REIT India 33 314 85% 16.3 6.5 19.1
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
Michael Holland Vikaash Khdloya Bhhavesh Kamdar Sachin Shah Anuj Puri Dr. Punita Kumar Sinha
CEO Deputy CEO / COO President, Leasing CIO Independent Independent Board
Board Member Member
20+ Years Experience 11+ Years Experience 26+ Years Experience 17+Years Experience 30+Years Experience 30 +Years Experience
Former Country Former Former Deputy Key person of Group Chairman Portfolio manager,
Manager and MD,Blackstone Real General Manager – Samsara Fund and founder of Oppenheimer Asset
Managing Director Estate Leasing and Advisors Private ANAROCK Management
of JLL India Former VP at Marketing Limited Board member of CFA charter holder,
Former CEO of PiramalFund (Commercial) at Former VP of Jagran Prakash and served on the
Assetz Property Management Larsen & Toubro Acquisitions at Limited, Music Board of Governors
(erstwhile IndiaREIT) Starwood Capital Broadcast Limited, for CFA Institute
ANAROCK
Investment advisor
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
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Rs 2,957 Cr 9% ~8%
Gross GAV of Of Total
Asset Value total portfolio Gross Rentals
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
17% growth with 99.5% of NDCF payout to unit holders Leasing Highlights of H1FY20 – Long contracts at high spreads
H1FY20 H1FY19 % change New Lease Analysis H1FY20
Embassy Office Parks REIT
(in Rs cr) (in Rs cr) YoY
Total Lease-up Area (msf) 1.19
Revenue from Operations 1055.7 898.6 17%
Area Re-leased (msf) 0.89
Property Tax and Insurance -35.8 -34.4
Re-leasing Spread (%) 66.50%
Direct Operating Expense -128.7 -108.6
Net Operating Income 891.2 755.6 18% New Leasing to Existing Portfolio Tenants 75.90%
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
Valuation
We have used a balance sheet based 10-year DCF valuation and a cap rate based terminal value to allow for cash flow stabilization to
arrive at a target price of Rs 495. The details of assumptions built-in are as below. Also, ROFO acquisitions can provide considerable upside
to value of stock not built into the valuations.
Key Risks
Tenant concentration risk: Tenants in the technology and financial services sector amount to ~64% of gross rentals and any adverse impact
on these sectors will impact Embassy REIT.
Property Concentration Risk: High revenue concentration remains in one integrated office parks (~41% of revenue from operations from one
Bengaluru property: Embassy Manyata). Any impact on Embassy Manyata will impact overall performance significantly.
Inability to lease at market prices: Leasing & rental growth depends on supply-demand conditions in micro-markets, portfolio attractiveness
and landlord reputation among other factors. Any impact on these, will affect growth adversely.
Regulatory Changes: Any adverse alterations on taxation of interest and dividends will have an impact on company’s operations and return
expectations of investors.
Source: Company, Axis Securities
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
Cost of goods sold 517 592 621 704 Investments 1,499 1,282 1,419 1,400
Contribution (%) 72.4% 74.3% 76.2% 76.2%
Wkg. cap. (excl cash) 4,961 795 399 335
Tax provision 201 134 198 246 Pref. Share Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Associates 0 0 0 0
Current Liabilities 2,512 2,545 2,767 2,826
Other Comprehensive Income 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Borrowings 7,146 4,234 4,908 5,679
Adjusted PAT 291 815 947 1,096
Reported PAT 365 936 1,079 1,244 Def tax Liabilities 4,142 4,397 4,557 4,697
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
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Appendix
23 DEC 2018 Company Report
REIT as an asset class has been in existence for over 5 One common misnomer that we have come across is that
decades in the US. So we have looked at US based Equity REIT’s rise only in periods of falling interest rates when debt
REIT returns to understand how REIT’s have performed as investments become unattractive and underperform during
compared to other broad equity markets over long periods of periods of rising interest rates. We therefore again looked US
time. REIT returns during rising interest rates.
Returns (%) REITs in a Rising Interest Rate Environment
Dow Jones
FTSE Nareit Nasdaq
Period S&P 500 Industrials Russell 2000
All Equity REITs Composite
Average
10-Year 13.3 13.44 13.3 12.38 16.3
15-Year 8.65 9.03 9.57 7.93 9.92
20-Year 11.74 6.2 7.38 8.02 4.89
25-Year 11.18 10.15 8.39 9.34 10.28
30-Year 10.75 9.94 8.11 9.4 10.31
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Disclosures:
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
1. Axis Securities Ltd. (ASL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000297. ASL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of
providing Stock broking services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. ASL is a subsidiary company of Axis Bank Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd. is a listed public
company and one of India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of Asset management, NBFC, Merchant Banking, Trusteeship, Venture Capital,
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4. I/We, Ankit Suchanti, PGDM IIML author/s and the name/s subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my/our views about the
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in this report. I/we or my/our relative or ASL does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also I/we or my/our relative or ASL or its Associates may have beneficial ownership of
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Any holding in stock – No
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Instead of a company visit, we have done a conference call with the company’s management.
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23 DEC 2018 Company Report
DEFINITION OF RATINGS
Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12-18 months
BUY More than 10%
HOLD Between 10% and -10%
SELL Less than -10%
NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning valuation and recommendation
UNDER REVIEW We will revisit our recommendation, valuation and estimates on the stock following recent events
NO STANCE We do not have any forward looking estimates, valuation or recommendation for the stock
Disclaimer:
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The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. The Company reserves the right
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expressed therein.
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