Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
WINNING
IN GROWTH
CITIES
2018/2019
ALTERNATIVE SECTORS 8
APPENDIX 41
RISK
that the cycle is set to end or that recession is • Emerging markets (largely in Asia), "challenger offer a city makes.
also rose strongly in the rankings, such as
cities" rising in the regional and global hierachy
Helsinki, Vienna and Madrid. looming. However, while inflation may be less of and finding the right format and manager to ALTERNATIVES
a threat than feared, alongside steady economic take on the challenge of retail.
Cross border investors took 22% of the market One investor’s ‘alternative’ may be mainstream
growth, price signals will still be enough to keep for another, but new sectors in general are
over the year, with global rather than regional
central banks in a tightening mood, and the slow clearly in fashion and hence carry some risk
investment the faster growing segment at 23%
but sure rise in interest rates and easing in QE- of becoming overpriced given the shortage of
y/y. Interestingly, growth in each region was
dominated by a different capital source, with
driven liquidity will therefore continue. DISRUPTIVE opportunity that frequently exists. Nonetheless,
the fundamentals are strong in terms of the
domestic investment up most in Asia at 35%, Although this suggests that strategies will need to • Experimenting with the new and the unproven upside for creating a platform of scale, the
global investment intensifying in Europe by evolve, there continues to be no shortage of capital that will disrupt the locations we choose and
the way property is built, managed and used.
positive gains to portfolio performance, and the
56% and regional investment growth top in the targeting real estate across myriad geographies imperative to embrace a wider mix of uses to
• New submarkets in gateway cities, new ways of
Americas at 15%. In all cases however, domestic and risk profiles. What may be new in the year building or managing space, and new platforms
make property work. At the same time however,
buyers were the main source of capital, taking ahead, however, is the potential for supply to that add value for users and owners and create investors need to be armed with good market
49% of the European market, but 85% in Asia increase as some investors switch strategy and new revenue streams. knowledge of how each sector is regulated in
HIGH
each local market.
and 86% in the Americas. take profits, while others get caught by rising
% change y/y
MADRID volume declines over the year. 0.4% was Berlin, marking a change from the country’s
DENVER
Nevertheless, as with last year, dominance in 2017, although German cities
6 of the top 10 cities were in 0.2%
maintained a healthy representation in the top 25
BOSTON the US, whilst Europe and Asia 0.0% city targets for cross-border investors.
TORONTO each accounted for 2 of the
remainder, with London having -0.2%
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 retained its spot as the primary -0.4%
USD Billions
European market owing to a Apt. Dev Site Hotel Industrial Office Retail
number of high-profile office
Overall Cross-Border
sales at the beginning of 2018.
Year to Q2 2018 Year to Q2 2017
Hong Kong moved up 14 Fig 4: Sources of International Capital Fig 5: Targets of International Capital
Fig 3: Top Cities for Cross-Border Investors (excl. Development Sites) Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA
Top Cities for Investment places compared to the
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, (excl.
RCA Development)
previous 12 months to second
place, buoyed by several large $450 $200
LONDON
scale transactions by Chinese $180
$400
HONG KONG investors, with continental $160
investment in the city rising by $350
PARIS $140
259.4% y/y. Asian cities made $300
USD Billions
USD Billions
$120
AMSTERDAM three appearances in the top 10 $250
MADRID in 2018 compared to none the $100
$200
year before, as Shanghai and $80
NEW YORK
Tokyo improved their appeal $150
$60
BERLIN for cross-border capital. By $100 $40
comparison, whilst 8 APac
SHANGHAI $50 $20
cities had made it into the top
$0
HELSINKI 25 during 2017, this declined to $0
Year to Year to Year to Year to Year to Year to
APAC Europe North MEA Latin
America America
TOKYO just 5 this year, with Singapore, Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018
Seoul, and Beijing falling out of MEA Europe L. America N. America APAC Regional Global
LOS ANGELES
favour for international investors
WASHINGTON, DC over this period.
Europeans were the second most prominent Hong Kong was the largest source of cross-
SYDNEY For the first time on record,
source of cross-border capital for the second border investment globally for the second year
New York was relegated from
SAN FRANCISCO year running, as continental investment running, with transactions within Asia Pacific
the top 5 cross-border metro
6 DUSSELDORF continued to take the biggest share of European accounting for 90% of outward capital flows. 7
targets, with geopolitical
flows abroad. However, transaction volumes Whilst Chinese investors were responsible for the
MUNICH tensions partly to blame for a
outside of Europe saw an increase for the first third highest volumes of international real estate
pull-back in investment from
FRANKFURT time since 2015, with North America the primary investment, cross-border flows only made up
the Middle East and Asia,
beneficiary as European investors were attracted 7% of total Chinese investment, with investors
VIENNA resulting in no North American
to the continued growth story of the US. instead choosing to spend domestically.
DUBLIN
cities appearing among the top
5 targets. However the region’s Flows out of North America represented US investors increased their international
MELBOURNE
cities maintained the same a quarter of total cross-border transaction transaction volumes by 52.4% on the year,
COPENHAGEN presence as last year in the volumes; despite a decrease in capital moving retaining the second spot for cross-border real
top 25 overall, with a total of 6 out of Canada, growth in international estate investment. By comparison, the UK’s
CHICAGO
making the list. investments from the US more than ranking as an international investor fell for the
HOUSTON compensated, with growth of 52.4% y/y. Europe third consecutive year, with UK investment
APac investors continued
was the biggest beneficiary of these improving declining in both continental and global
BRUSSELS to dominate cross-border
currents, as a recipient of 62% of North American contexts. Germany and France both increased
HAMBURG investment into real estate
outward investment in the 12 months to Q2 2018, their exposure to the wider European market
assets, with a 45% market
whilst Asian countries softened as a target over as continental investment from these sources
share over the 12 months to
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 the year. increased by 5.6% and 11.2% y/y respectively.
Q2 2018. Among investors
USD Billions
from this region, those from Middle Eastern capital pulled back on investing in
Hong Kong were the most international markets for the second consecutive
Year to Q2 2018 Year to Q2 2017
prolific as volumes from this year, with outward investment declining by -6.1%.
source increased by 20% y/y Whilst Israel, Bahrain and the UAE increased
to represent 49% of all Asian flows out of their domestic countries, Qatar and
international investment. Lebanon withdrew. Likewise, many African sources
of international investment cooled on the year;
however, South African appetite for European
assets improved, leading total African cross-border
investment to increase by 36.6% y/y.
AMERICAS 76% EMEA 11% APAC 13% AMERICAS 47% EMEA 52% APAC 1%
Top Cities in the Year to Q2 Sector Statistics Top Cities in the Year to Q2 Sector Statistics
VOLUME: VOLUME:
AMERICAS ($mn) EMEA ($mn) APAC ($mn) AMERICAS ($mn) EMEA ($mn) APAC ($mn)
$10.8BN $17.2BN
Washington, DC $ 2,633 London $167 Singapore $ 549 Austin $487 London $2,417 Melbourne $76
Dallas $ 1,035 Istanbul $ 93 Hong Kong $ 259 Los Angeles $286 Vienna $521 Yokohama $18
San Jose $ 897 Dublin $ 79 Beijing $ 161 ANNUAL GROWTH: Ann Arbor $258 Madrid $437 Phutthamonthon $16 ANNUAL GROWTH:
Chicago $ 867 Frankfurt $ 58 Sydney $ 128 266.2% Washington, DC $256 Paris $358 Fukuoka $13 11.9%
Toronto $ 752 Paris $ 52 Melbourne $ 70 Philadelphia $233 Barcelona $278 Tokyo $8
Atlanta $ 267 Slough $ 49 Bangalore $ 59 Tallahassee $225 Berlin $243 Wellington $6
YIELDS: YIELDS:
Phoenix $ 227 Madrid $ 45 Wollongong $ 37 Chicago $201 Sheffield $219
5.0-6.0% (EMEA) 3.5-5.5% (EMEA)
Sacramento $ 173 Dresden $ 41 Yokohama $ 28 Seattle $198 Coventry $206
5.5-6.0% (US) UP TO 6.0% (US)
San Diego $ 169 Amsterdam $ 32 Kolkata $ 21 6.0-6.5% (APAC) Gainesville $167 Swansea $132 5.5-7.5% (APAC)
New York $ 138 Munich $ 26 Hangzhou $ 21 Eugene $167 Hamburg $119
TOTAL $ 8,247 TOTAL $1,181 TOTAL $1,377 TOTAL $8,161 TOTAL $8,876 TOTAL $138
TRENDS RISKS WHAT DRIVES CITY SUCCESS? and other content. For those cities finding
themselves on the top of popularity list, it will be
Overall investment into hotels fell by -3.2% y/y, Access to labour is a potential constraint facing Cities that have a diverse demand base for hotel increasingly important to balance growing visitor
due to a -20.8% cooling in investment in the the sector – with low unemployment rates in many beds across geographical origin and visitor type numbers with over-tourism concerns among
Americas. This was driven by a decrease in places, combined with rising populism and the will be better able to maintain demand even local residents.
investment from Hong Kong and mainland China threat of immigration restrictions, finding labour during potential downturns. Strong regional and
following a number of strong years of capital that is both skilled but also willing to work in what international transport links are also important, OPPORTUNITIES FOR 2019
flows into the region. By comparison, American can be a demanding industry may prove to be a as well as the ability to appeal to key growth
Despite being in the 9th year of growth since
and Canadian investors increased their exposure. challenge in some markets going forward. markets such as millennials, tourists from
the global financial crisis, there are still markets
In Asia Pacific, volumes were up 28.2% y/y, driven emerging regions, and senior citizens.
Security risks and other shocks, such as with fairly limited pipelines on the horizon,
in large by strong investment growth across
geopolitical unrest or outbreaks of serious Another driver is the extent to which local where tourism demand continues to outpace
Japan and China.
illnesses such as Zika or Ebola, remain an issue in governments or industry bodies are embracing the local economies. Paris, Amsterdam, Athens,
The number of international tourists globally some markets, though customers appear to have integration and digitisation in order to make Prague, Madrid and Lisbon will be attractive
rose by 7% in 2017 and is set to continue to rise, adapted somewhat and the pace of recovery in-destination logistics and activities easier to European locations for hotel investment,
bolstered by such factors as the rise in the silver after such incidents has increased. access, thereby making a stay in the city easier as well as Tel Aviv, Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto,
economy, the millennial hunt for experiences, and potentially more rewarding. The cities Singapore, and localised opportunities in
Online booking sites, which have consolidated
and the rise of tourism originating from a moving towards this are typically ones that Thailand and India.
themselves in recent years, are driving increasingly
more prosperous China. As the driving forces appreciate the value of building a strong city
large proportions of hotel bookings, and as such
contributing to the increase in each of these brand, and are working with the tourism industry,
are able to wield ever greater negotiating power in
tourist groups looks unlikely to wane in the near including hoteliers and restaurateurs, to better
charging hoteliers high commissions. This has been
future, tourist numbers are expected to continue manage visitor satisfaction, and therefore their
one of the drivers of M&A activity in the sector, as
to increase globally. online reputation, through reviews, blog posts,
large hotel chains are in a better position to push
back against these rising distribution costs, and
12 13
make the necessary investments into fast-evolving
Regional share of trading
technology. Hotels are also turning to campaigns
promoting direct booking through their websites, AMERICAS 46% EMEA 34% APAC 20%
to help mitigate the market power of these large
intermediaries.
Top Cities in the Year to Q2
Sector Statistics
VOLUME:
AMERICAS ($mn) EMEA ($mn) APAC ($mn)
$75.9BN
New York $3,115 London $3,265 Tokyo $2,002
Sector Statistics TRENDS from an investment standpoint. In certain regions in later stages of life, as well as facilities looking
such as Asia Pacific, as the age dependency ratio for cheaper land where competition does
VOLUME: With 69.5% of overall investment into the sector in increases and lifestyles shift for both the young not include residential developers. In markets
$37.5BN the year to Q2, North America is by far the most and seniors, traditional family arrangements in old where private medical insurance covers a larger
mature market for healthcare investment globally, age will change, though the pace at which this will proportion of costs, such as the United States,
though investment was down -6.4% y/y. Most of rates of insuredness may provide an indication
happen is up for some debate.
ANNUAL GROWTH: this decrease was in medical buildings, which saw a of a location’s potential for success. As the
0.01% softening of -13.1%, while senior housing investment RISKS proportion of elderly people increases, demand
was relatively stable year on year, decreasing will grow for healthcare facilities of all kinds
only slightly by -1.4%. In EMEA, which has a The sector is heavily regulated, with differing
regulation not only country to country but often within traditional gateway cities, including within
YIELDS: relatively developed senior housing sector, though
6.5-7% (Americas medical), regionally within countries as well. This can mixed-use developments, and perhaps playing a
significantly less medical facility investment than more prominent role on high streets.
4.75-5.75% (EMEA senior living), North America, overall investment increased 17.7% make entering new markets challenging, and can
6-7% (APac healthcare) pose risks if regulation changes. As such, either
y/y. In Asia Pacific, a much smaller market though OPPORTUNITIES FOR 2019
one seen to have significant potential, investment acquiring platforms or proven operators can help
mitigate this. The sector is also influenced heavily While in the longer term Asia Pacific has significant
into medical centres increased 154.2% y/y, albeit
by the healthcare spending model, and as such potential, for the year ahead European cities
still making up only 6% of global medical centre
exposed to changes to government policy. will be favoured for growth as economic and
investment globally.
demographic trends support the sector. By volume,
With an aging population across all continents, WHAT DRIVES CITY SUCCESS? US healthcare will continue to dominate the league
investment into healthcare is expected to grow In many instances, the current winners in this tables, with facilities in proximity to well-connected
due to the vast current undersupply, in both the sector are in out-of-town or secondary locations, cities the most likely to gain attention.
breadth and availability of senior accommodation, with quality of life taking on a different meaning
as well as the professionalisation of the sector
14 15
Regional share of trading Regional share of trading
Top Cities in the Year to Q2 - Senior Housing Top Cities in the Year to Q2 - Medical
AMERICAS ($mn) EMEA ($mn) APAC ($mn) AMERICAS ($mn) EMEA ($mn) APAC ($mn)
Coffeyville $877 Northampton $205 Sydney $106 Atlanta $1,191 Dublin $205 Seoul $260
New York $719 Paris $202 Melbourne $102 New York $648 Aldershot $202 Brisbane $245
Dallas $719 Milan $90 Sunshine Coast $85 Chicago $624 London $90 Melbourne $75
Los Angeles $557 Gothenburg $79 Tokyo $77 Minneapolis $484 Rotterdam $79 Sydney $31
Houston $424 Malmö $73 Perth $65 Boston $423 Cologne $73 Singapore $30
Boston $379 Amsterdam $71 Otsu-shi $58 Los Angeles $415 Cork $71 Gold Coast $21
Denver $378 Manchester $68 Central Coast $52 Houston $405 Utrecht $68 Adelaide $16
Miami $368 Brussels $66 Te Mata $46 San Diego $295 Helsinki $66 Noosa $16
Washington, DC $364 Dublin $65 Sapporo $31 Seattle $223 Munich $65 Perth $12
Atlanta $342 Jyvaskyla $65 Hong Kong $25 San Antonio $214 Hamburg $65 Albany $11
TOTAL $15,658.5 TOTAL $8,518.4 TOTAL $1,036.7 TOTAL $10,392 TOTAL $1,121 TOTAL $755.5
ANNUAL ANNUAL ANNUAL ANNUAL ANNUAL ANNUAL
-1.4% 14.5% -10.1% -13.1% 50.5% 154.2%
GROWTH GROWTH GROWTH GROWTH GROWTH GROWTH
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA
ECONOMIC
winners that we should
be expecting in the years
OUTLOOK
ahead. The following
review is just a selection
of those which investors 2%
should consider.
The macro environment is 1%
BEING
Where justice is upheld inclusive of all citizens,
URBAN
and where all feel valued.
to invest in real estate. pressure on the ability of planners to ensure quantity and size of the green spaces they smart technologies to integrate the concept of
public well-being, whilst at the same time afford, encouraging exercise and placemaking. well-being from conception, with Al Widyan in
And yet, with a market’s balancing the negative effects of higher density While Paris and Tokyo fall behind on this Saudi Arabia, being designed with health woven
economic productivity cities, including the loss of privacy, a heightened measure, they offer a wide range of cultural into every element.
largely dependent upon waste burden, increased incidence of disease facilities and community locations which
Ultimately, the need to prioritise well-being in the
and uncomfortable heat island effects. promote social cohesion and connectivity.
the health of its citizens, However, the popularity of these dominant cities
urban context is a key consideration that benefits
it is paramount to the Wealth concentration within cities combined both individuals and businesses alike, and those
has added to capacity constraints, depressing
with economies of scale amount to an ‘urban places incorporating well-being led design are
conversation on future- health advantage’ through the clustering of
affordability and making it difficult for lower
more likely to show resilience to higher rates of
income residents to find quality housing, thereby
proofing cities. health infrastructure. Gateway cities lead the
increasing social inequality and safety concerns.
population growth going forward.
charge in this respect, with London, New York,
Tokyo and Paris operating world-renowned Whilst the challenge for gateway cities is to
hospitals which attract best-in-class physicians, find a sustainable way to deliver growth within
whilst wide-reaching transport systems allow for their increasingly strained physical parameters,
good access to such amenities. those cities which still have the space to develop
have the benefit of hindsight, granting them the
While important, health services are not the sole
ability to look at established models and choose
determinants of well-being, which is promoted
approaches that have worked best in promoting
and played out in the spaces that people occupy.
city well-being. Urban planners are at the
For this reason, it is important for investors
forefront of these decisions, with policy makers
looking to determine resilient cities to consider
such as those in Shenzen, Seattle, Barcelona To read more on well-being in
the wider urban environment.
and Rotterdam able to adopt sustainable urban the workplace, take a look at the
transformation plans, keeping tight controls on C&W Well Workplace Report.
air quality and heat island intensity for example.
03. THE
ENVIRONMENT
Cities currently house more than
600 500 970
half of the world’s population, OF THE WORLD’S CITIES CITIES WILL SUFFER CITIES WILL BE
with this proportion expected to WILL BE AT RISK OF FROM LOW WATER FORCED TO FACE THE
FOOD SHORTAGES DUE SUPPLIES CHALLENGES BROUGHT
grow to two thirds by 2050. As
TO LOW CROP YIELDS ON BY EXCESSIVE HEAT
a result, cities overwhelmingly
consume the world’s energy,
contributing to c.70% of global Source: C40 Cities
carbon emissions, placing
20 cities at the vanguard of the 21
In addition to being a primary contributor to To that end, despite having won an award for its While upgrading standing infrastructure to
global warming, cities are some of the areas water conservation scheme in 2015, water supply increase efficiency will be key to addressing
most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, in Cape Town almost failed to meet demand emissions issues, new technologies built into
with 75% of the world’s megacities at risk from this year, with this near-miss of Day Zero, at city design will also play a significant role going
rising sea levels. Many are entirely reliant on which the taps in the city run dry, perhaps forward. Such is the case in Masdar City in
food imports, making them particularly exposed foreshadowing what urban areas can expect in the UAE, where engineers are incorporating
to supply-chain disruptions exacerbated by the future. intelligent energy systems into the new city’s
drought. Similarly, given the concentration of construction to create the world’s most
Overall however, studies suggest that it is more
wealth and resources in cities, representing more sustainable city, which will consume 75% less
economical to invest in reducing the human
than 80% of global GDP, the economic impacts energy than a conventional one.
contribution to climate change in order to
of a warming climate will be felt more keenly
slow the course of warming. In consequence, The impetus for cities to adopt climate change
in the urban context, thus making cities with a
a number of cities are already committing prevention is clear: as extreme weather events
well-developed climate strategy more attractive
resources to reduce their emissions, offering become progressively more frequent, investors
places to safeguard investment.
tangible solutions for delivering sustainable should increasingly view climate resilience as
Climate change is expected to emphasise rainfall growth. Seattle, one of the fastest growing cities essential for safeguarding investment. Market
patterns, making dry areas drier and wet areas in the US, has implemented a policy on existing opportunities can therefore be found in those
even wetter. In the first instance, the imminent commercial buildings to optimise energy and areas which have a coordinated prevention,
danger is to those fast-growing cities where water efficiency, decreasing energy consumption adaption and mitigation strategy.
urban infrastructure struggles to keep up with by 10-15% per building.
these changes. Tokyo and London, amongst
others, have developed schemes to reduce the
likelihood of flooding with success thus far;
however, these will ultimately have to be updated
if the current path of climate change continues.
04. CULTURE
& CREATIVITY
8 million 0.7% -1.4%
PEOPLE ARE EMPLOYED GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT DECLINE IN EMPLOYMENT
There are as many ways to try IN THE CULTURAL AND IN CCI IN EUROPE DURING IN EUROPE OVERALL
to quantify what makes a city CREATIVE INDUSTRIES THE GFC OVER THE SAME PERIOD
‘cool’, as there are definitions (CCI) IN EUROPE, MAKING
of cool itself – be it the party UP 4.4% OF GDP
scene, museum scene, or start- Source: European Commission
up scene. However, what’s
undeniable is that cities that
have a more diverse cultural From a cultural appeal perspective, therefore, cities may fall into one of three different categories,
each with their own opportunities and challenges:
22 environment, and that have 23
05. THE
KNOWLEDGE
ECONOMY
by Kat Hanna
Associate Director,
Urban Change -
Research & Insight
Perhaps the most important factor driving the 2. The convergence of skills demands across Looking ahead, new types of talent-rich locations
24 The phrase ‘war for talent’ war for talent is the growth of the knowledge industries and geographies: The use of are likely to emerge. These include: 25
is used frequently to economy, where competitive advantage is technology in the workplace is far from new.
• Leading hubs like Berlin, Singapore and Tel
highlight the extent to driven by the capacity to generate talent, Digitisation has, however, permeated a range
Aviv, where high-skilled populations, both
knowledge, and innovation. In many locations, of sectors and locations, including those not
which companies should the increase in the relative importance of the typically considered reliant on technology.
homegrown and international, and access to
capital have led to the creation of successful
be prepared to compete knowledge economy, for example the digital As a result, sectors ranging from banking to
tech ecosystems. Rapidly growing hubs in
with one another for high- or creative sectors, has been mirrored by a healthcare are joining the war for talent, hiring
US cities, including Austin and Portland, and
decline in traditional sectors such as large-scale analysts, developers, and data scientists.
skilled workers. Whether manufacturing. The resulting economies are ones
Scandinavian cities like Stockholm, also fit this
3. Increased salaries and cost of living: Growing profile, albeit it on a far smaller scale.
it’s opting for popular in which talent plays an increasingly important
demand for high-skilled labour means
downtown locations, or role in creating a competitive advantage. • Large, established hubs, including San
companies are willing to pay a premium
Francisco, New York, London and Seattle,
providing a wide range More recently, the continued rise of the for the talent they need. In leading global
where the concentration of demand for talent
knowledge economy has resulted in four key tech hubs, for example, average salaries for
of office amenities and trends: software developers have far outpaced market
risks a crisis of affordability, both in terms of
workplace benefits, housing, and in supporting emerging start-
averages. This concentration of earning power
1. The concentration of knowledge activity in ups, who struggle to compete with the wages
attracting and retaining urban locations: Innovation and knowledge-
can result in a distortionary effect on both
offered by major corporates.
labour and housing markets within a city
staff is key to success. led activity is an increasingly urban activity,
market, as evidenced in cities such as San • Emerging secondary tech hubs, particularly
particularly in contrast to the suburban
Francisco and Seattle. in Eastern Europe or India, where large talent
science parks of the 20th century. These
pools allow businesses to access high-skilled
dense, mixed-use locations allow for 4. The commoditisation of talent and the
labour at a relatively low cost. Demand
collaboration between different sectors, emergence of new supply chains: As demand
for these locations is closely linked to the
and respond to changing demographic for high-skilled talent grows, occupiers are
performance of established tech locations,
preferences for lively, amenity-rich looking to less familiar locations with sufficient
and the performance of sectors with further
environments. labour pools. For tech-reliant companies,
scope for digitisation.
this means identifying areas with strong
engineering and computer-science talent,
and reconfiguring supply chains based on
comparative labour costs.
07. TRANSPORT
extreme of banning them outright – whether
we get around but also building design, the permanently, or as a stop-gap measure to
relative desirability of locations, and ultimately buy time in order to try and address some of
CRE values. the externalities. Seattle is an example of a
city working with new entrants, allowing four
While it’s unlikely that all the new services on
dockless bike schemes to enter the local market
Between the promise of offer will survive in their current iterations, their
for a pilot project earlier this year, in exchange
sudden rise is forcing cities to examine not
Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), the only safety, accessibility, and environmental
for receiving the data that they will subsequently
rise of ride sharing, dockless generate. This information will be used to
considerations, but also how space is allocated
inform the city’s overall transport strategy,
bike sharing, and most recently between modes of transport – and well-executed
demonstrating the potential value of public-
policies have the potential to boost a city’s
scooter sharing, one would be prospects and give it a competitive edge.
private partnerships in this sphere.
forgiven for thinking that we ARE FOCUSED ON THE LONG GAME
are entering the Golden Age While the timescale for fully autonomous
Investors should, therefore, be on the lookout
of Transport – and perhaps for cities that:
vehicles is still up for debate, cities that
are laying the groundwork now in terms of
we are. Before we get there, regulatory framework and testing will be in a
however, cities have a lot of TAKE A HOLISTIC VIEW
much stronger position for thoughtful integration
In order for new technologies and services to
28 work to do in ensuring that add value and improve overall connectivity, cities
that best maximises the potential benefits of this 29
technology. Singapore has invested heavily in
these new technologies and must consider all existing and new transportation
supporting AV research and innovation, including
modes of transport also make services as part of the same overall network – as
numerous pilots on both segregated tracks and,
its users already do. Examining the transport
the cities they serve cleaner, network overall will help new services fill gaps
shortly, on public roads in the form of a pilot
commercial AV taxi service.
safer, and more accessible.
DID YOU
in the market – for example, New York is using
the introduction of dockless bike-sharing to In Gothenburg, meanwhile, Volvo has recruited
address the much examined ‘last mile’ public several local families to test-drive their semi-
KNOW?
transport problem. Focusing on how new autonomous vehicles, enabling them to improve
entrants can address shortfalls in existing their product through feedback. The goal is for
transport infrastructure provides an opportunity these test vehicles to become progressively
for these new services to improve connectivity more autonomous, reaching stage 4, near full
Streets are not only and therefore, among other things, the appeal of autonomy, by 2021. Both Gothenburg and
essential for getting hitherto isolated neighbourhoods. Stockholm have embraced AV testing, giving
around, they are also, them an integration advantage when the
literally, a city’s biggest technology does arrive.
asset: 25-35% of the land
area of a typical city are
streets and pavements.
Cities must not only
focus on increasing the
efficiency of their existing
networks, but also develop
strategies for how to best
leverage this asset. To read more about the future impact
of Autonomous Vehicles, take a look at
the C&W Autonomous Vehicle Report
new stations passengers a day train frequency epicentre of activity during the games. The village 25 250
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infrastructure investment on real estate completed, the heralded new economic zones
values, take a look at the DTZ Investors should start to gain traction with occupiers. Stratford Station Annual Passengers Newham Mean House Price
GLOBAL
line), the incorporation of a new metro line and additional bus
corridors that intersect the city center.
• In addition, the region’s rundown harbor area underwent
an emphasis on local market fundamentals, and a DEFENSIVE impact on physical retail still playing out. Carefully
selected, however, we think risks and rewards are
clear appreciation of what the occupier is looking SUPER NEW MARKETS MATURE TIER 2
increasingly well-aligned, while pricing across parts
GATEWAYS Boosts diversity Expand the focus
For now however, the global economy remains for - even if the latter requires some guesswork Focus on the through exposure to secondary of the retail market will look compelling in the
supportive of property, as shown by robust job given the challenges that they face. Indeed, most liquid and to differing cities but in the
sustainable performance lowest risk year ahead when combined with operators and
creation in the US and positive space absorption experimentation should be an increasing feature markets to drivers in new countries. business models that can take advantage of the
in China. In Europe and the wider Asian region, of investor strategy going forward as we look to protect income sectors and cities
and value. such as the changes occurring in the industry.
economic growth has eased compared to 2017, make the transition in business and operating demographically
but they too remain in relatively good shape, practices that new technological, economic, driven residential In tier 2 cities, investors need to be selective and
with positive economic momentum filtering social and environmental trends demand.
market. consider the fundamental appeal of a city, not
34 through to property markets. just its price. It is worth noting, however, that 35
such cities are not necessarily a second choice.
The war for talent and changing technology
THE HUNT FOR Businesses need to find greater productivity and efficiency as labour markets tighten DARING is exposing a wider band of cities to greater
PRODUCTIVITY and wages increase. Confidence levels and rising interest rates may hold some back from EMERGING CHALLENGER RETAIL
MARKETS CITIES The e-commerce
scrutiny from occupiers, usually due to a mix
investing, but developing and integrating new technology will be an increasing focus for of higher living standards, greater affordability,
Selective, focus Tier 2 cities with impact has further
RISK
most firms, and changing real estate needs will be next in line for many. on areas of key attributes to to go globally but
sustainable, allow them to physical space
a skill or cultural cluster, typically with a strong
home-grown grow and remains key to university, good access and appeal to younger
QUALITY OF Sustainable growth relies on attracting talent and customers, and with changes in society’s demand. compete globally, modern retailling
workers. Such ‘Challenger Cities’ also usually
LIFE priorities towards well-being, the environment and work/life balance for example, quality of such as Dresden and a possible
or Chengdu. source of success have a lower population density, according to
life issues are increasingly to the fore in developed as well as emerging markets. In all cases, for innovative,
the affordability of that quality of life is a mounting issue. active mangaers.
the EIU’s global liveability index, as well as lower
crime rates and less congestion.
MARKET The apparently synchronised nature of the global economic cycle in late 2017 proved short- For those planning over a longer time frame,
DIVERSITY AND lived and patterns of growth and risk are now highly varied by country, city and industry. As outright disruptive strategies need to be
LOCALIZATION such, locational and timing strategies need to be adapted in response. DISRUPTIVE pursued; for example in developing new
NEW BUILD AND MANAGEMENT submarkets in successful cities, preferably
SUB-MARKETS INNOVATE PLATFORMS
Developing new Experimenting Dynamic, active based on new transport infrastructure, or
AMPLE BUT The weight of capital in the global market remains high, but this liquidity does not extend to urban districts, with what we management educational, cultural or commercial hubs that can
CHANGING all assets, and will be subject to change as quantitative easing slowly reverses. It is also not largely in build, where and with new revenue
gateway cities. how. models. underpin long-term demand changes. Tackling
LIQUIDITY reflected in a widespread availability of debt finance away from low risk areas of the global
construction and the development process itself
market.
could reap significant gains as well, using new
designs, a mix of uses, technology and materials
THE REMAKING Changing social and business preferences has led to the need for cities to alter how they
OF SPACE AND
HIGH to change the affordability, flexibility, efficiency
operate. Challenges differ from city to city depending on the scale of existing infrastructure
CITIES and sustainability of the built environment.
to remodel or remake, but in all cases, there is a need to experiment, to embrace
sustainability and to better curate the offer a city makes to its residents and visitors. Finally, building new platforms to create an
efficient critical mass from an investment and an
occupational perspective, while also generating
and capturing data and harnessing new revenue
streams, may be the ultimate disruptor strategy.
REGIONAL STRATEGY TRENDS AHEAD Peru seeing increased interest thanks to solid absorption is also being seen in gateway cities. is diversifying, with the Nordics perhaps
A further slow increase in investment activity economic growth and US$ denominated hard Tech-driven markets from San Francisco down best placed. Areas of good growth can also
is expected in Asia Pacific, together with a leases. In Brazil, key sectors of interest include are attracting more investor demand and a be found in Germany, France, Spain and the
modest fall in yields. In core markets investors Class A office and logistics in São Paulo, but new range of tier 2 cities are being targeted. Similarly, Netherlands. The UK is seeing growth slip
are looking to increase their reach, with Brisbane emerging market segments such as self-storage opportunities continue to emerge in the multi- back, but the occupational market is holding
and Perth providing options, as well as regional also offer potential. Elsewhere, the long-term family market despite increased development. up well despite Brexit concerns, and attractive
cities in Japan, where the supply outlook is promise of Colombia will attract attention, Foreign investor demand in the sector is up, and relative yields will continue to draw in long-
more favourable than Tokyo. Among emerging particularly for retail and logistics, helped by more buyers are looking towards B locations term capital. In Central Europe, occupational
markets, risk appetites are increasing in India, better short-term conditions, a new government and suburban developments to find stock and fundamentals are good and there is potential
with investors embracing new sectors and and rising oil prices. higher yields. Retail is seeing strong consumer for further yield compression, although rental
brownfield development, while in Vietnam, demand but the wave of bankruptcies continues. growth may be more subdued due to higher
In North America, overall investment is likely
prospects are bright, underpinned by a relatively Nonetheless, the retail real estate market appears potential supply. Geopolitical risks are holding
to ease over the coming year as the cycle
stable political backdrop. Investors in core and to be stabilising, with a growing realisation that back the larger emerging markets of Turkey
matures. Canadian markets continue to
emerging markets are also looking towards there are winners and losers in the physical and Russia, but smaller markets in Eastern
attract strong interest but stock shortages
new sectors, with data centres and hospitality space market. Opportunistic players are taking Europe are drawing in more interest, and the
will push investors towards suburban areas
popular and others, such as co-living and note. Greek market is stabilising. In the wider region,
and smaller cities, with office and industrial
retirement homes, being considered due to current interest from global players is limited
preferred. While vacancy rates are at record
favourable demographic trends, albeit with the in Africa and the Middle East, but is set to rise
lows across major asset classes, particularly in
risk of regulatory oversight a complicating factor over time among those looking at longer-term
outperforming markets Vancouver and Toronto,
for some. macro trends.
the threat of a trade war is on investors’ minds. Alternative sectors are
China meanwhile is likely to feature more on Nonetheless, over the longer run, Canadian gaining a greater market Demand is spreading across a growing range of
global buy lists going forward, following moves commercial real estate remains a strong less-traditional sectors, led by rental apartments
by President Xi to ease entry requirements for contender on a risk-adjusted basis, particularly share in all regions, led and student accommodation. Among the more
36
foreign investors. Tier 1 cities will be a key focus, in markets that provide demographic and by residential, hospitality traditional sectors, change is being seen; offices 37
but a greater share of investment will target locational advantages for businesses. and student housing but are experiencing robust tenant demand, helped
decentralized and emerging CBD locations due by co-working trends, and modern offices are in
to a shortage of opportunities and high prices in
In the USA, with strong economic momentum with smaller niches also a strong position to outperform. With pipelines
maintained by tax cuts and government
the CBDs, as well as transport improvements in
spending, the market remains ahead of the
seeing rapidly growing generally failing to match demand, gateway
these new areas. interest. cities will continue to drive growth, led by Nordic
global cycle, leading both for expansion and
cities as well as Madrid, Amsterdam and Paris. As
The prevailing tight lending situation in China employment growth, as well as for the pace
affordability is squeezed however, decentralised
will lead to a softening in new development, of monetary policy tightening. Consequently,
tier 1 and better-quality tier 2 markets will gain.
but will also produce more opportunities for investment strategies must adjust as the cycle
In EMEA, economic momentum has slowed
JVs and refinancing. Government initiatives matures and performance enters a slowing Logistics will continue to be a focus for activity
but remains favourable, and with near full
are expected to continue to support growth, phase. At the same time however, dry powder among occupiers and investors. Rental growth
employment in some markets, the impetus
including the Greater Bay Area, Belt & Road is at record levels, meaning liquidity is still may be squeezed where development is on the
is growing on businesses to invest internally.
Initiative and wider urban renewal schemes. very strong and domestic buyers are more rise however and urban logistics, where denser
This should sustain the occupational cycle in
China’s tier 2 and 3 cities, particularly those than ready to pick up any slack left by those uses are starting to emerge, appears a stronger
2019, and with monetary policy tightening at a
linked to the Belt & Road Initiative such as overseas players deterred by the strong dollar. bet to outperform. While logistics benefits
slower pace than in North America, the macro
Chengdu and Chongqing, will continue to Opportunities are increasing as more supply from e-commerce, retail continues to suffer,
environment for property is good. As a result,
record strong growth in logistics investment. comes to market, but investors in general are with the middle ground between affordable
yields are set to find their floor, but investment
selective, focussing on the highest quality, albeit convenience and aspirational destinations
In South America, the headwinds facing investors liquidity will remain high and there is potential
in a widening variety of markets and sectors, under threat. While most European markets
from politics, a strong dollar and an uncertain for supply to also increase as pricing peaks -
including niches such as data centres and do not have the level of retail provision seen in
trade outlook will continue. However, the leading to more potential opportunities coming
medical offices. the USA, some areas do have more space than
economic backdrop has improved, and emerging to market. For now, however, a supply shortage
they will need in the future. Nonetheless, with
market problems are not endemic in all countries, The logistics market remains buoyant, and while continues to hold back the market, especially for
robust consumer spending growth, those cities
with regional and global interest increasing for development is now up, it is still outpaced by investment grade stock.
and formats that match retailer aspirations
secure investment opportunities. For core assets, occupier demand. In response, investor interest
Prospects remain quite varied by market, with do offer recovery potential with the right
Chile is a key attraction, but high demand has is strong, with an increased focus likely on those
macro risks in some, led by the UK and Italy, management team on board.
forced yields down and availability is limited, secondary and tier 2 markets that face less new
as well as Russia and Turkey. Geographically
pushing buyers towards new sectors such as construction. Office markets meanwhile are
therefore, it’s no surprise that performance
multi-family or elsewhere in the region, with experiencing rising levels of supply but strong
CORE CORE-PLUS
OPPORTUNISTIC
APPENDIX
-Shanghai, Beijing, Ho Chi Minh Development serving large
Santiago and Lima and Class A City, Guangdong and Indian
stabilised office in Buenos Aires, Central & Eastern European
40 hubs, plus Kuala Lumpur, cities and peripheral Western 41
Rio de Janeiro, Medellin, and Bangkok and Vietnamese hubs
Bogota. cities: e.g. Oporto, Barcelona
(including light industrial). and Milan.
RETAIL: CHINA:
Heavy repositioning/ AFRICA AND UAE:
Underperforming assets for Schemes serving key hubs for
redevelopment of Class B+ upgrade or conversion (e.g.
US malls into mixed-use with technology and hospitality.
retail to co-working or office
experiential retail or industrial towers to residential) and
component. over-leveraged developers, via HOTELS:
Brazilian tier 1 shopping investment in local platforms. Asset management in key
centres with low relative Western cities and development
pricing and proven resilience. (Southern Europe).
Class A in Santiago, Mexican
DATA CENTRES:
Multi-let in Japan, plus other
and Colombian cities. DATA CENTRES:
growing regional hubs.
Central and Eastern Europe.
MULTI-FAMILY:
Affordable housing in the US,
Mexican and Colombian cities,
in infill high transit locations of
Santiago, Class A in São Paulo.
INDUSTRIAL:
US cold storage, infill
distribution product in
tertiary markets, Class B and
development in secondary
markets. Markets servicing key
Brazilian and Mexican cities.
COUNTRY CITY LOCATION OFFICE SHOPS INDUSTRIAL COUNTRY CITY LOCATION OFFICE SHOPS INDUSTRIAL
1 ARGENTINA Buenos Aires Americas 10.00% N/A N/A 40 LUXEMBOURG Luxembourg EMEA 4.20% 3.25% 8.00%
2 AUSTRALIA Sydney APAC 4.50% 4.25% 6.00% 41 MACEDONIA Skopje EMEA 9.25% 9.50% 12.75%
3 AUSTRALIA Melbourne APAC 5.00% 4.75% 6.50% 42 MALAYSIA Kuala Lumpur APAC 6.00% 6.00% 7.50%
4 AUSTRIA Vienna EMEA 2.80% 2.85 5.75% 43 MEXICO Mexico City Americas 10.40% 11.50% 11.60%
5 BAHRAIN Manama EMEA 8.50% 8.50% 8.00% 44 NETHERLANDS Amsterdam EMEA 4.00% 3.00% 5.25%
6 BELGIUM Brussels EMEA 4.40% 3.15% 5.90% 45 NEW ZEALAND Auckland APAC 5.75% 5.00% 5.25%
7 BRAZIL Rio di Janeiro Americas 9.80% 8.85%* 9.80% 46 NORWAY Oslo EMEA 3.60% 3.75% 5.25%
8 BRAZIL São Paulo Americas 8.50% 8.85%* 9.54% 47 OMAN Muscat EMEA 8.00% 7.00% 8.00%
9 BULGARIA Sofia EMEA 7.75% 8.25% 8.75% 48 PHILIPPINES Manila APAC 7.50% 3.50% 8.60%
10 CANADA Toronto Americas 4.31% 4.50% 4.75% 49 POLAND Warsaw EMEA 5.00% 5.25% 6.75%
11 CANADA Vancouver Americas 4.38% 3.63% 4.25% 50 PORTUGAL Lisbon EMEA 4.50% 4.50% 6.25%
12 CANADA Montreal Americas 5.75% 5.00% 6.25% 51 REPUBLIC OF KOREA Seoul APAC 4.50% 5.75% 7.00%
13 CHINA Beijing APAC 4.40% 3.70% 6.20% 52 ROMANIA Bucharest EMEA 7.25% 7.50% 8.75%
14 CHINA Shanghai APAC 4.84% 4.66% 6.50% 53 RUSSIA Moscow EMEA 9.50% 9.50*% 11.50%
15 CHINA Hong Kong APAC 1.92% 2.40% 2.80% 54 SAUDI ARABIA Riyadh EMEA 7.00% 6.80% 7.25%
16 CYPRUS Limassol EMEA 4.75% 5.00% N/A 55 SERBIA Belgrade EMEA 8.75% 7.75% 11.00%
17 CZECH REPUBLIC Prague EMEA 4.50% 3.50% 5.75% 56 SINGAPORE Singapore APAC 3.30% 4.50% 6.00%
18 DENMARK Copenhagen EMEA 3.75% 3.00% 5.75% 57 SLOVAKIA Bratislava EMEA 6.25% 7.50% 6.50%
44 45
19 ESTONIA Tallinn EMEA 6.70% 6.70% 8.00% 58 SLOVENIA Ljubjana EMEA 7.75% 7.00% 10.00%
20 FINLAND Helsiki EMEA 3.40% 4.10% 5.75% 59 SPAIN Madrid EMEA 3.50% 3.30% 5.75%
21 FRANCE Paris EMEA 3.00% 2.50% 4.75% 60 SPAIN Barcelona EMEA 3.50% 3.30% 5.50%
22 GERMANY Berlin EMEA 3.10% 3.30% 4.70% 61 SWEDEN Stockholm EMEA 3.50% 3.25% 5.15%
23 GERMANY Frankfurt EMEA 3.20% 3.50% 4.60% 62 SWITZERLAND Geneva EMEA 3.25% 4.25% 6.00%
24 GERMANY Hamburg EMEA 3.10% 3.40% 4.65% 63 SWITZERLAND Zurich EMEA 3.50% 3.20% 5.50%
25 GERMANY Munich EMEA 2.80% 2.90% 4.50% 64 TAIWAN Taipei APAC 2.61% 2.26% 2.62%
26 GREECE Athens EMEA 7.95% 6.70% 10.00% 65 THAILAND Bangkok APAC 7.00% 8.00% 8.00%
27 HUNGARY Budapest EMEA 5.50% 5.00% 7.50% 66 TURKEY Istanbul EMEA 7.25% 7.00% 9.00%
28 INDIA Bangalore APAC 8.50% 8.00% 8.50% 67 UAE Dubai EMEA 8.00% 8.50% 8.00%
29 INDIA Mumbai APAC 8.00% 8.00% 7.50% 68 UKRAINE Kyiv EMEA 12.00% 9.50% 12.75%
30 INDIA New Delhi APAC 7.50% 5.70% 8.00% 69 UNITED KINGDOM London EMEA 3.50% 2.50% 4.00%
31 INDONESIA Jakarta APAC 7.00% 10.00% 10.00% 70 UNITED KINGDOM Manchester EMEA 4.75% 4.25% 4.75%
32 IRELAND Dublin EMEA 4.00% 3.50% 5.25% 71 UNITED KINGDOM Birmingham EMEA 4.75% 4.50% 4.75%
33 ISRAEL Tel Aviv EMEA 6.25% 5.00% 6.00% 72 UNITED KINGDOM Edinburgh EMEA 4.75% 4.75% 6.00%
34 ITALY Milan EMEA 3.50% 2.75% 5.50% 73 UNITED KINGDOM Glasgow EMEA 5.25% 4.00% 6.25%
35 ITALY Rome EMEA 4.00% 2.75% 6.25% 74 USA New York Americas 4.00% 4.00% 4.25%
36 JAPAN Tokyo APAC 3.20% 3.25% 3.80% 75 USA Chicago Americas 5.20% 5.35% 5.00%
37 KUWAIT Kuwait City EMEA 9.00% 8.00% 7.50% 76 USA Los Angeles Americas 4.50% 4.50% 4.25%
38 LATVIA Riga EMEA 6.50% 6.50% 7.80% 77 USA San Francisco Americas 4.30% 3.30% 4.00%
39 LITHUANIA Vilnius EMEA 7.00% 7.00% 8.50% 78 USA Washington, DC Americas 4.50% 4.50% 5.00%
This report has been written by David Hutchings, DAVID HUTCHINGS Capital Markets provides comprehensive advice The Investment Strategy team assists clients in
Emily Tonkin and Carolina Dubanik in our EMEA Investment Strategy and execution services to clients engaged shaping their investment approach and strategy
Capital Markets Investment Strategy team with david.hutchings@cushwake.com in buying, selling, investing in, financing or in response to the changing world in which real
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support from Research, Capital Markets and developing real estate and real estate-related estate markets operate. In addition to market
other specialist teams. The report has been EMILY TONKIN
assets across the globe. Our solutions are reporting and investment insights, the team
prepared using data collected through our own EMEA Investment Strategy tailored to meet the objectives of private and produces bespoke client studies and provides
research, as well as information available to us emily.tonkin@cushwake.com institutional owners and investors, as well as strategic investment advice to aid strategy
from public and other external sources. The +44 20 7152 5877 corporate owners and occupiers. development and portfolio analysis, advising on
transaction information used relates to non- how best to meet objectives and achieve the
CAROLINA DUBANIK Whether you are seeking to dispose of an asset
confidential reported market deals, excluding optimum balance of risk and return. Integral to
EMEA Investment Strategy in Hong Kong, finance the purchase of a hotel in
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carolina.dubanik@cushwake.com New York, or structure a complex cross–border
All investment volumes are quoted pertaining ongoing advice to aid decision making with
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to deals of USD 5 million and above, unless respect to sales or acquisition strategies.
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Wakefield information, data has been used from Located in major markets around the world, our
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was sourced from RCA, it is as at 14 August 2018. and disposal strategies across all major property
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Volumes for the multi-family sector include Associate Director, Urban Change unique access to opportunities and capital EMEA
transactions where existing multi-family buildings kat.hanna@cushwake.com
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are collectively sold by groups of individual +44 20 3296 4947 DAVID HUTCHINGS
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46 And DTZ Investors: 47
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48
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