CMPE 107 SPRING 2019 Homework 2 Solutions

Solutions Part I
P(A∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩ B) and P(A∩ B) ≥ 0
1.
Therefore, P(A∪ B) ≤ P(A) + P(B)

2. The prove is by induction using the previous answer as the basis case for n = 2.

⎛k ⎞ k
Assume that the result is true for n = k > 1: P ⎜ ∪ Ai ⎟ ≤ ∑ P(Ai ) . Then:
⎝ i=1 ⎠ i=1

⎛ k+1 ⎞ ⎡⎛ k ⎞ ⎤ ⎛k ⎞
P ⎜ ∪ Ai ⎟ = P ⎢⎜ ∪ Ai ⎟ ∪ Ak+1 ⎥ ≤ P ⎜ ∪ Ai ⎟ + P(Ak+1 ) from the definition of union and our basis case.
⎝ i=1 ⎠ ⎣⎝ i=1 ⎠ ⎦ ⎝ i=1 ⎠
Substituting our inductive hypothesis in the previous result:
⎛ k+1 ⎞ k k+1
P ⎜ ∪ Ai ⎟ ≤ ∑ P(Ai ) + P(Ak+1 ) = ∑ P(Ai )
⎝ i=1 ⎠ i=1 i=1

3. Define the following events: A = {the selected ball is red}; B = {the selected ball is white}, and
C = {the selected ball is either blue, yellow, or green}. We are asked to find Pr(C). The three events A, B, and C
are disjoint and A∪B∪C = S. So 1 = P(A) + P(B) + P(C). We are told that P(A) = 1/5 and P(B) = 2/5. It follows that
P(C) = 2/5.

4. P(A ∩ B) = P(A) + Pr(B) − P(A ∪ B) = 0.4 + 0.7 − P(A ∪ B) = 1.1 − P(A ∪ B). So P(A ∩ B) is largest when
P(A ∪ B) is smallest and vice-versa.

The smallest possible value for P(A∪B) occurs when one of the events is a subset of the other. In the present
exercise this could only happen if A ⊂ B, in which case P(A ∪ B) = P(B) = 0.7, and P(A ∩ B) = 0.4.

The largest possible value of P(A ∪ B) occurs when either A and B are disjoint or when A ∪ B = S. The former is
not possible since the probabilities are too large, but the latter is possible. In this case P(A ∪ B) = 1 and
P(A ∩ B) = 0.1.
CMPE 107 SPRING 2019 Homework 2 Solutions

Solutions Part II
1. P(dot) = 2P(dash) from observations and we know that P(dot) + P(dash)= 3P(dash) = 1. Hence, P(dash) = 1/3
and P(dot) = 2/3

2. (a) As each person can have his or her birthday on any one of 365 days (ignoring the possibility of February 29),
there are a total of (365)n possible outcomes. Let A be the event that no two persons have the same birthday. Then
the number of outcomes belonging to A is: n(A) = (365)(364)…(365 – n +1).

Assuming that each outcome is equally likely, then P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = [(365)(364)…(365 – n +1)]/365n .
Therefore, the probability we seek is Prob = P(Ac) = 1 – P(A) = 1 – [(365)(364)…(365 – n +1)]/365n

(b) Making n = 50 in our result we obtain Prob ≈ 1 – 0.03 = 0.97

(c) Making n = 23 we obtain Prob ≈ 0.507 and so with 23 persons in the room the probability that at least 2 people
have the same birthday exceeds 0.5.

3. Let x be the proportion of the school in grade 3 (the same as grades 2–6). Then 2x is the proportion in grade 1
and 1 = 2x + 5x = 7x. So x = 1/7, which is the probability that a randomly selected student will be in grade 3.

4. There are 20 ways to choose the student from the first class, and no matter which is chosen, there are 18 ways to
choose the student from the second class. No matter which two students are chosen from the first two classes, there
are 25 ways to choose the student from the third class. The multiplication rule can be applied to conclude that the
total number of ways to choose the three members is 20 × 18 × 25 = 9000.

5. This is a permutation of five distinct items, so there are 5! = 120 ways.

6. There are six different possible shirts, and no matter what shirt is picked, there are four different slacks. So there
are 24 different combinations.

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7. Let the sample space consist of all four-tuples of dice rolls. There are 6 = 1296 possible outcomes. The
outcomes with all four rolls different consist of all of the permutations of six items taken four at a time. There are
P(6,4) = 360 of these outcomes. So the probability we want is 360/1296 = 5/18.

6
8. With six rolls, there are 6 = 46656 possible outcomes. The outcomes with all different rolls are the
permutations of six distinct items. There are 6! = 720 outcomes in the event of interest, so the probability is
720/46656 = 0.01543.

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9. There are 20 possible outcomes in the sample space. If the 12 balls are to be thrown into different boxes, the
first ball can be thrown into any one of the 20 boxes, the second ball can then be thrown into any one of the other
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19 boxes, etc. Thus, there are 20 · 19 · 18 · · · 9 possible outcomes in the event. So the probability is 20!/[8!20 ].

10. There are 7 possible outcomes in the sample space. If the five passengers are to get off at different floors, the
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first passenger can get off at any one of the seven floors, the second passenger can then get off at any one of the
other six floors, etc. Thus, the probability is 7.6.5.4.3 / 7 = 360 / 2401.
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11. There are 6! possible arrangements in which the six runners can finish the race. If the three runners from team
A finish in the first three positions, there are 3! arrangements of these three runners among these three positions
and there are also 3! arrangements of the three runners from team B among the last three positions. Therefore, there
are 3! × 3! arrangements in which the runners from team A finish in the first three positions and the runners from
team B finish in the last three positions. Thus, the probability is (3!3!)/6! = 1/20.

12. We can imagine that the 100 balls are randomly ordered in a list, and then drawn in that order. Thus, the
required probability in part (a), (b), or (c) of this exercise is simply the probability that the first, fiftieth, or last ball
in the list is red. Each of these probabilities is the same r / 100, because of the random order of the list.