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South Korea concerns :

1 POSCO dilemma : restrictive trade practices of India


2 Port of coffee club (UNSC reforms)
3 India wants to diversify its electronic supplies and SK is a v good alternative to China
4 India is the 2nd largest trading partner of NK after China (97%)

Robert Caplin said “IO is a theatre of war”


Theatre of war or island of prosperity  prosperity basically but because of China interventions and
trade related conflicts it gives a picture of war thing.
 Militarily
 Trade
 Security

Asian Century ?
Population
ASEAN | China | India

Domestic transformation through our foreign policy.


SAGAR and nbd first policy  India wants equal p’ship with even our neighbouring countries.

Globalisation 2.0 (new type of Gn)


DeGn 
1. Strategic : It is mainly US led (wrt to the Chinese growth)
2. Economic issues back home (west)

Not sustainable for long as the world is interwoven. SDG aslo requires a collective effort.

Cold war 2.0  (US | Russia)


 Crimean annexation
 Syria, Afganistan
 Venezuela
 CAATSA
But now it has also shifted towards US- China
1.0  was basically an ideological war : liberalism and communism
2.0  only to establish hegemony

It was more an ideological war but now it is more on trade

Are US and Russia on the same side ?


 Space
 Syria : ISIS
 Bonhomie between leaders

Ideological diversions continue :


 CAATSA
 RCP axis (Russia, China , Pakistan)  more anti USA than India.

US-Russia against China


 Masood Azhar
 Doha round (?)
Russia –China
 Shale gas issue
 Baggage of animosity
 Strategic balance

Russia-India
 R’s support in the 370 issue explicitly.

Deteriorated
 BRI
 Defence trade decreased

RCEP  Fair trade not just free trade

Demand side
1 UIB
2 agricultural commodities
3 private sector revival:

Fiscal space for UIB


 Strategic disinvest
 Tax to gdp ratio
 Tax rationalization

Decrease of corporate tax  dec in revenue


Alternatives :
 Simpler tax
 Telecom and automobile doing bad  sector specific policies

GST collection is basically the reflection of how our economy is doing.


Move towards progressive taxation : inc of wealth tax by 1% can increase our health expenditure
by 50%

Q) After demonitisation , cash transactions have decreased . Current trend ?

Q) Why strategic investment lower than its target this year?


 Initial base price of govt is huge
 Policy paralysis in finishing the deal fear of allegation of profiteering under one’s regime
 Last year bullish market ; this year not

Way f/w:
 Don’t go for full sale

Cashless
 Cashlight economy
 Digishala ; BHIM ; Digital saksharta
 Public perception due to lack of awareness
 Lack of digi infra
 ABCDEF

Structural
 FPA , external sector
 Mfg
 Banking

LFPR is decreasing
 Frictional unemp
 Women
- Pink collar jobs are less
- Family income increased
- Social reason  harassment etc
- Industries in tier 2 and tier 3 cities
- Education
- The high-skilled, white collar jobs that young women desire are rare.
Instead, domestic work, house cleaning and salespeople dominate the
urban sector for women.