OPINION AND EDITORIALS

17-12-2019

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TODAY'S PAPER | DECEMBER 17, 2019

US likely to pull out 4,000

troops from Afghanistan soon
Anwar Iqbal Updated December 16, 2019

United States officials, however, acknowledged the expected

 withdrawal could “reduce considerably” the US military’s ability
to train and advise local Afghan forces. — Reuters/File
WASHINGTON: The Trump administration intended to
announce the drawdown of about 4,000 troops from
Afghanistan early next week, US officials told NBC
News on Sunday.
“The drawdown could be … a unilateral concession to the Taliban,”
other officials told CNN. “The smaller US military presence will be
largely focused on counterterrorism operations against groups like
Al Qaeda and ISIS-K,” they added.
The officials, however, acknowledged the expected withdrawal
could “reduce considerably” the US military’s ability to train and
advise local Afghan forces.
The United States still has between 12,000 and 13,000 troops in
Afghanistan.
The officials who spoke to NBC News said this would be a phased
withdrawal that would occur over a few months, but they did not
say when it would begin.
Defence secretary says withdrawal will take place even if Taliban
don’t finalise an agreement
US President Donald Trump promised to withdraw US troops from
Afghanistan during the 2016 presidential campaign and has made
several attempts to start the process since coming to power.
US Secretary of Defence Mark Esper told an audience in
Washington last week that the withdrawal would happen even if
the Taliban did not finalise an agreement. Gen Scott Miller, the
commander of US troops in Afghanistan, said later that he could
sustain a reduction in forces.
One of the former defence officials said the withdrawal
announcement was “part of trying to reset the talks with the
Taliban”. This would allow US peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad to
urge the Taliban that the two sides restart negotiations where they
left off, with the US withdrawing troops and the Taliban promising
a ceasefire.
NBC News reported that the commander of US Central Command,
Gen Frank McKenzie, participated in meetings on Thursday to
discuss the footprint for US troops in the Middle East. The
discussion included the issue of increasing the US military
footprint in other parts of the Middle East to counter the “threat
from Iran”.
The New York Times noted in an earlier report that one of
America’s major goals in Afghanistan had been to train thousands
of Afghan troops and it had spent billions of dollars to achieve that
target.
“But nobody in Afghanistan — not the American military, and not
President Ashraf Ghani’s top advisers — thinks Afghan military
forces could support themselves,” NYT reported. “The Afghan
army, in particular, suffers from increasing casualty rates and
desertion.”
Another report in The Washington Post said that US military
trainers described the Afghan security forces “as incompetent,
unmotivated and rife with deserters”. The report claimed that
Afghan commanders “pocket salaries — paid by US taxpayers — for
tens of thousands of ghost soldiers”.
No US military trainer “expressed confidence that the Afghan army
and police could ever fend off, much less defeat, the Taliban on
their own,” the Post added.
The office of the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan
Reconstruction (Sigar) noted that more than 60,000 members of
Afghan security forces have been killed, a casualty rate that US
commanders have called unsustainable.
A US military officer, interviewed by Sigar, estimated that one-
third of police recruits were “drug addicts or Taliban”.
Since 2001, an estimated 157,000 people have been killed in the
war in Afghanistan, forcing the United States to reconsider its
stance on an apparently unending war.
So far, 64,124 Afghan security forces, 43,074 Afghan civilians,
42,100 Taliban fighters and other insurgents, 3,814 US
contractors, 2,300 US military personnel, 1,145 Nato and coalition
troops, 424 humanitarian aid workers and 67 journalists and
media workers have been killed in 18 years of war in Afghanistan.
Published in Dawn, December 16th, 2019

Since 2001, an estimated 157,000 people have been

killed in the war in Afghanistan, forcing the United
States to reconsider its stance on an apparently
unending war. So far, 64,124 Afghan security forces,
43,074 Afghan civilians, 42,100 Taliban fighters and
other insurgents, 3,814 US contractors, 2,300 US
military personnel, 1,145 Nato and coalition troops, 424
humanitarian aid workers and 67 journalists and media
workers have been killed in 18 years of war in
Afghanistan. (Dawn)
 East, West and CPEC
Afshan Subohi December 16, 2019

ISLAMABAD claims to be on the same page with Beijing

as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) enters
its second phase. It dismisses the perception that the
ongoing arrangement with the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) is being used by the West to pressure
Pakistan into backtracking from sealed deals with the
superpower of the East under a grand bilateral
partnership framework.
Early last week, a media report hinted at simmering discontent in
China over Pakistan’s demands for transparency in CPEC contracts
and a quiet campaign to malign Beijing.
Read: Projects being carried out under CPEC free of corruption:
envoy
It was reported that China’s displeasure with Pakistan has
mounted to a level where it has threatened to scrap all contracts
and leave the country if the government fails at course correction.
The report has not been contested by either side, ie China or
Pakistan, to date.
Executives of overseas companies declined to comment on the
issue. On the other hand, local business leaders blamed a “lethargic
and inexperienced” economic team for the bitterness surrounding
CPEC. “Prime Minister Imran Khan is looking forward to the
second phase of CPEC to kickstart the growth through Chinese
support for the social sector, industry and agriculture. The intent is
there but the problem is in translating it to an actionable strategy,”
commented a Karachi-based businessman who spends a better
part of his week in Islamabad these days.
CPEC watchers in Pakistan have persistently been highlighting the
challenges of policy balancing in the post-IMF deal period because
of tensions between the United States and China, spilling over into
a trade war.
The United States and other Western nations did not hide their
discomfort with CPEC. Around $50 billion contracts were
announced under CPEC during the previous government. Out of
this, projects worth $28bn have matured.
‘The West may frown to its heart’s content on our deep ties with
China, but it is clear that these ties are not up for bargain’
Ignoring economic compulsions, the West detests Pakistan drifting
closer to China. The sentiments were shared at multiple forums in
their engagements with the government and other stakeholders in
the country.
The issue came to the fore when Pakistan was negotiating a bailout
package with the IMF. The lenders raised concerns on the
possibility of money loaned directed to settle credit liabilities of
China under CPEC. They stopped short of making IMF support
conditional on scaling down Chinese involvement in Pakistan’s
economy.
In July, the IMF’s executive board approved a 39-month Extended
Fund Facility for Pakistan for an amount of around $6 billion.
There was already some discussion over the transparency of CPEC
in the country and the real dividends it would bring to the
economy. The position was also taken by some leaders of the PTI
government. However, it is hard to say if the objections were
primarily politically motivated or the country’s economic interest
was at the heart of the opposition.
It did not, however, take the PTI government long time to grasp the
value of massive Chinese investment in power and infrastructure
projects. It realised the support that China has already garnered in
business circles on the strength of completed projects worth
$28bn. Besides, political dimensions of ties with China in the wake
of a provocative stance taken by India explains why the PTI
leadership reacted the way it did to comments by Alice Wells, the
principal deputy assistant secretary of state for South and Central
Asia at the US Department of State.
In a speech last month, the top US diplomat for South
Asia warned that the multibillion-dollar CPEC project would push
Pakistan deeper into an already stifling debt burden, foster
corruption and repatriate jobs and profits to China.
Read: 'Pakistan's relations with China will never fray': Asad
Umar responds to US concerns over CPEC
However, Planning Minister Asad Umar defended not just ties with
China but also CPEC, and rejected the notion that the megaproject
has increased debt burden of the country in dramatic proportions.
He stated that the loan component of the massive investment is
barely $4.9bn, which is a tiny portion of the $74bn total public debt
that Pakistan owes to global lenders.
Attempts were made to secure comments from leaders of the
government’s economic team on the reported threat by China, but
they did not wish to come on record. In private, they did accept that
China is not happy with the pace of progress on CPEC under the
current government, but in their opinion the convergence of
interests of two nations is too strong for a major setback on the
CPEC front.
“The United States and other Western nations may frown to their
heart’s content on our deep ties with China, but it is clear that these
ties are not up for bargain,” a senior member of the government’s
economic team said. “For us, China has proven times and again to
be the most dependable ally and we will not trade this relationship
of trust for anything.”
Adviser to the Prime Minister for Commerce, Textile and Industry
Production Abdul Razak Dawood in his brief emailed comment
stated, “China has not given an ultimatum and yes the IMF and
CPEC can coexist.”
Retired Lt Gen Asim Saleem Bajwa, recently appointed the head of
CPEC Authority, was approached but he was not inclined to share
his thoughts on the threat of rollback at this point.
Dr Liaqat Ali Shah, CPEC’s Project Director in the Planning
Commission, termed the news item (mentioned earlier in this
article) baseless without stating reasons for not contesting it
publicly. “There are no second thoughts on CPEC in Islamabad or
Beijing. We are on the same page. The negotiations are in progress
with China on an incentive package for investors in special
economic zones and Gwadar. We are hoping for groundbreaking at
multiple locations of special economic zones over the next few
weeks and months,” he asserted.
“The second phase of CPEC is focused on a business-to-business
engagement under a broad umbrella against government-to-
government deals that were the hallmark of the first phase of
CPEC, except for the Main Line-1 (Karachi-Lahore-Peshawar)
Railway Line project. The fact is that China has not ruled out the
possibility of deferring the loan repayment schedule beyond 2022
if Pakistan’s fiscal issues persist,” he told Dawn by phone.
Mushahid Hussain, a politician and an active advocate of CPEC,
was in China but promised to share his views. His response did not
reach Dawn until the filing of this report.
Shazia Syed, CEO of Unilever and the president of the Overseas
Chamber of Commerce and Industry, declined comment, stating:
“It’s too early to take a position.”
Ehsan Malik, CEO of Pakistan Business Council, an advocacy
platform of the big business, said the council “has been advocating
an exchange of information (EOI) with not just China but all major
trading partners. In the absence of EOI, under-invoicing and
misdeclaration are rampant. We understand that China agreed to
it earlier. The government should pursue it, notwithstanding any
threats on CPEC, which we believe are exaggerated.”
President of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce
and Industry Daru Khan Achakzai was all supportive of CPEC, but
he prayed for the de-politicisation of the project, which in his view
benefits Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and ignores Sindh and
Balochistan. “I don’t think Pakistan can afford to annoy China in
this regionally hostile environment,” he said.
He was pinning his hopes on former finance minister Asad Umar,
who has recently assumed the charge of planning minister to
remove bottlenecks and make CPEC more broad-based, with
benefits of the megaproject equitably shared between all provinces.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, December

16th, 2019
The fault in our capital market
Dilawar Hussain Updated December 16, 2019

The stock market sits along fault lines that no one has
really been able to overcome in the past decades.
The best-performing market in Asia in 2016, which provided stellar
returns of 46 per cent, has continued to falter after its benchmark
index hit an all-time high of 53,124 points on May 25, 2017.
In the subsequent two and a half years, investors lost 40-50pc of
their savings. Several attempts at helping the market recover have
proved futile. The last such effort that saw the market gain 19.8pc
in about five months (July 1–Dec 6) was celebrated by investors as
the highest return that any bourse provided in the region. It raised
hopes that the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) might have
bottomed out.
Yet the market is back on the slippery slope with most pundits
holding a grim prognosis for the near term. Although market
commentators quickly switch from blaming the economy to
political problems for the market crisis, there are some
fundamental flaws in the PSX that the regulators have been unable
or unwilling to correct.
The perennial problem is the lack of depth in the market. The
number of listed companies is low and, therefore, too many
investors are chasing too few stocks that produce consistent
dividends.
With thousands of companies seeking registration with the
Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) every
month, the aggregate number of registered companies has risen to
over 110,000. In contrast, the number of companies listed on the
stock exchange has dwindled over the years to 558. More than 100
of these companies are placed on the defaulters’ counter, which is
a red flag for investors.
Issuers put over a dozen IPOs on hold owing to unfavourable stock
market conditions in 2017
Around 400 companies are actively traded on the market, but only
about two dozen of them command as much as 80pc of the traded
volume each day. Few new companies wish to enter the stock
market. The number of new entrants has evaporated from at least
25 a year some years ago to just one initial public offering (IPO) in
2019. Over a dozen IPOs were in the pipeline for 2017. But the
issuers put them on hold owing to unfavourable market conditions
and a fear of under-subscription.
The PSX chairman sees a beeline of new offerings post-March
2020. For the moment, however, an old-timer at the PSX was frank
to admit that companies sought listings mainly for two reasons: to
avail tax benefits or settle family disputes by dividing the majority
holding among squabbling siblings. Besides a lack of depth, there
are other major issues that impede the growth of the Pakistan
equity market.
Low investor base
The number of equity investors has failed to swell. It remains firmly
below 250,000. Most critics suggest that despite the numerous
investor awareness seminars, no serious effort has been made by
the regulators over the years to attract new investors.
Some suspect that a handful of big market participants who
command nearly 90pc of the daily trade have no inclination to
expand the investor base. Many believe that no more than 20 large
investors are the major players who handle much of the trade on
any given day.
SECP Policy Board Chairman Khalid Mirza told Dawn that the
greatest impediment to growth of local bourse was the absence of
competition. “As long as there remains a single stock exchange in
Pakistan, there will be no development in the capital market,” he
affirms.
Failure to introduce new products
Almost all trading on any given day takes place in the ready market
and single-stock deliverable futures.
A few other products lie dormant owing to scarce trading. There
are complexities in their handling. When 40pc shares in the PSX
were offered to the Chinese strategic investors, they promised they
would introduce innovative products like options and derivatives.
But nothing has materialised so far.
A former general manager of the PSX, Sani-e-Mehmood Khan,
gives an insight into the Chinese change of plans. “China’s interest
in seeking a stake in the PSX was out of sheer frustration. MSCI
declined to consider China-A stocks for the MSCI Emerging Market
(in 2015), and later on explicitly indicated to consider Pakistan for
the status of the Emerging Market (EM)”.
He says the Chinese excitement cooled off after China was also
alleviated to the EM status. Now Pakistan and China are competing
for the same piece of cake.
The lopsided KSE-100 index
Introduced in November 1991 with a base value of 1,000 points, the
benchmark comprises stocks of 100 companies out of all listed
entities. Three sectors — power, banks, and oil and gas exploration
and production — command nearly 68pc weight in the KSE-100
index.
Stocks from these sectors, which can be counted on the fingers of
one hand, have the power to set the direction of the market on any
given day. Shares in the five big banks — United Bank, Habib Bank,
MCB Bank, National Bank and Allied Bank — and three scrips in
the oil and gas exploration and production sector — Oil and Gas
Development Company, Pakistan Petroleum and Pakistan Oilfields
— along with a few other stocks Like Engro Corporation and Lucky
Cement can determine the direction of the market.
Although often in brisk business, the cyclical cement, steel and
textile sectors — the last one with the highest number of listed
companies — collectively hold no more than 20pc weight in the
index. Hence, fluctuations in the stock prices in these sectors have
only a slight impact on the index.
Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, December
16th, 2019
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 An evil law
Editorial December 17, 2019
NARENDRA Modi and his Hindutva-infused
dispensation, by singling out India’s Muslims and laying
the groundwork for legal discrimination against the
community, are playing with fire. A new law — the
Citizenship Amendment Act — passed by the Indian
parliament last week, has sparked a storm of protest
across India. As per the law, non-Muslim refugees from
Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh will now be put on
the fast track to Indian citizenship if they face
‘persecution’ in their countries of origin. Coupled with
this clearly prejudicial legislation is another, equally
sinister scheme up the Modi regime’s sleeve: the National
Register of Citizens. This is basically a plan designed to
make India’s people prove their nationality, through
documentary evidence or otherwise, or else be left off the
citizenship rolls. This dubious experiment has already
been tried in the state of Assam, and nearly 2m people
have been stripped of their citizenship. As critics point
out, this is a weapon — disguised in legal language — to
permanently disenfranchise India’s Muslims.
The reactions to the BJP-led government’s moves have been
intense. Protests on Monday entered their fifth day, with
demonstrations in Delhi, along with several of India’s metros. On
Sunday, the police savagely smothered a demonstration by
students in Delhi’s Jamia Millia Islamia university; footage doing
the rounds on mainstream and social media shows Indian security
men using brute force against protesting students. But it is not just
India’s Muslims that are up in arms over the BJP’s moves. Hindus
in Assam, for example, have taken to the streets as they fear the
new citizenship law will open the floodgates for Bangladeshi
Hindus to enter their state and alter the demographic balance.
Protests have roiled other north-eastern states for similar reasons,
and several people have reportedly been killed. Modi had called for
calm on Monday, yet this appeal rings hollow as the Indian prime
minister and his ideological comrades are primarily responsible for
this mess.
Considering the far-reaching consequences of the BJP
government’s moves, it is essential that the international
community speaks up and censures India’s blatantly anti-Muslim
moves. While there have been muted condemnations from the US
and others (a UN official called the CAA ‘discriminatory’) much
more forceful criticism is required. The US, EU and India’s trading
partners — many of whom are self-proclaimed standard bearers of
human rights — must openly condemn Delhi’s Islamophobic
behaviour. The proposed citizenship register has sent a chill
through India’s Muslim community, while there are credible
reports that the central government is building a number of
detention centres, apparently to house those whose nationality
New Delhi cancels. Though claiming to be a secular democracy,
India’s rulers, many of them card-carrying RSS members, are
actually aping the grim methodologies of the Third Reich. But is
this surprising, considering that the leading lights of the Sangh
Parivar were unabashed admirers of European fascism?
Published in Dawn, December 17th, 2019
 Climate failure
Editorial December 17, 2019
THE lack of seriousness displayed by the larger countries
at the conclusion of the COP25 in Madrid proves that the
next generation — their concerns aptly represented by the
young activist Greta Thunberg — has every right to be
angry at world leaders for not doing enough to slow down
the catastrophic impact of climate change. Even UN
Secretary General António Guterres described the final
declaration passed at the end of the climate conference as
“disappointing”. He asserted: “The international
community lost an important opportunity to show
increased ambition on mitigation, adaptation and
finance to tackle the climate crisis.” According to reports,
bigger countries, including the US, Brazil, China,
Australia and Saudi Arabia, refrained from pledging bold
steps to mitigate the global temperature rise by cutting
down on greenhouse gas emissions, a pivotal step
towards slowing down the increase. Hence the
participants of the summit were only able to pass a feeble
declaration calling for “urgent action” — a cliché of sorts
that has become synonymous with the conversation
around climate change, in the absence of any concrete
steps. The lacklustre response is especially worrying
because the Madrid talks were expected to gauge the
progress on targets of the Paris Climate Accord, 2015, the
most important ones relating to cutting down carbon
emissions. However, the resistance by bigger countries
means that the progress on reducing emissions could
either be stymied or even reversed, while more
vulnerable countries including Pakistan and the
Philippines continue to pay the ultimate price.
On the other hand, EU countries last week signed the Green Deal
in Brussels, aimed at zero carbon emissions by 2050. Whether or
not efforts made under this agreement are enough to soften the
devastating impact of the global temperature rise remains to be
seen. A recent report by the World Meteorological Organisation
contains revelations of how close we are to witnessing our own
extinction as a civilisation. The world does not need more
promises, as Greta Thunberg said at the UN. It needs action, and it
needs it now.
Published in Dawn, December 17th, 2019
 The $5bn question
Editorial Updated December 17, 2019

By now the amount that has been borrowed, and digested in the
bowels of the economy’s dysfunctions, has crossed $5bn, and
word is circulating that the government is interested in converting
this outstanding amount into a loan. — AFP
IT was common knowledge at the time when Pakistan
began receiving billions of dollars in ‘deposits’ from
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that this
money was little more than short-term relief.
In those days, Pakistan was running a current account deficit of
almost $1bn per month, so every billion borrowed was barely
enough to get it through the month.
Then came the oil facility, the detailed workings of which are a bit
unclear since it is not known how the oil imports coming under it
are booked, and how the payables accumulating on the other hand
are being recorded in the country’s accounts.
Certainly, the country’s debt figures do not seem to include
purchases made under this facility. But by now the amount that has
been borrowed, and digested in the bowels of the economy’s
dysfunctions, has crossed $5bn, and word is circulating that the
government is interested in converting this outstanding amount
into a loan.
This is where things stand at the moment. The funds originally
arrived as a one-year deposit, the first of which has already
matured and been rolled over.
The IMF demanded that the government get guarantees from all
those who extended these reserve extension facilities, as they are
referred to, so that they would agree to a rollover upon maturity.
That included the Chinese who had similarly been approached for
such support. Now that the time has come to start those rollovers,
and for the new government to undertake its diplomatic outreach
efforts, we learn that important linkages might exist between the
loans and the diplomacy.
There could scarcely be a better illustration of how the economy’s
inability to pay its bills — whether on the external or fiscal side —
ends up entangling the country in the geopolitical priorities of its
lenders.
This has been Pakistan’s story for decades. It is one of the biggest
reasons why we found ourselves on the front lines of a
superpower’s war, not once but twice. It is the reason why we keep
returning to the IMF for a bailout every four of five years.
And it is the reason why our country has never really had an
independent foreign policy, because those who stand on crutches
cannot walk their own path; they must be led by others. The real
cost of that borrowing binge from last year is now coming into
sharper relief.
Published in Dawn, December 17th, 2019
 Has Modi lost the plot?
Jawed Naqvi Updated December 17, 2019

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.

AND so Prime Minister Modi and his Man Friday, the
home minister, seem to have lost the plot, which they
were destined to do anyway. They had embarked on a
mission from Gujarat in 2002 to “unite the Hindus and
divide the rest” with a communal purpose enshrined in
Hindutva.
With the widely disputed Citizenship Amendment Act and the
National Register of Citizens (NRC) they were hoping to get a clean
shot at India’s secular constitution. The citizenship act was enacted
to exclude Muslims from a law that would open the doors
apparently to refugees of every religious stripe from three countries
— Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan. The chief ministers of
Hindu-majority West Bengal, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab,
Chhattisgarh and Delhi’s Arvind Kejriwal have put the spoke in
Modi’s wheel. They say they won’t implement the unconstitutional
law.
Rather than uniting Hindus against Muslims, what the duo have
succeeded in doing is to alienate their own hardcore allies, namely
the right-wing Shiv Sena and those erring Hindutva fans that had
elected the Bharatiya Janata Party government in Assam. The
Modi-Shah pair has thus sparked a fire that now threatens to singe
them and engulf the country.
In pictures: Protests persist against India's new citizenship bill
Muslims and non-Muslims have been staging unprecedented
rallies in scores of cities. Two were killed in police firing in Assam
and serious injuries were feared in police action against students of
Delhi’s Jamia Millia University. Clearly, the BJP has bitten off
more than it can chew. The Assamese and other denizens of north-
eastern states may be making a regressive demand in wanting
alleged Muslim migrants to be expelled. But they do not want the
Hindus to stay either. This flies in the face of the Rashtriya
Swayamsevak Sangh’s promise that no Hindu would be forced to
leave the country. The battle lines are drawn.
The chief ministers of Hindu-majority West Bengal, Kerala,
Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Chhattisgarh and Delhi’s Arvind
Kejriwal have put the spoke in Modi’s wheel.
A cursory survey shows that it is no longer a Hindu-Muslim binary
for the BJP. The Shiv Sena, not a great anchor of support for
Muslims, walked out of the vote on citizenship amendment, calling
it communal. Interestingly, the Modi-Shah duo has done
something that Nehru and Gandhi must have died craving for.
They managed to successfully invoke unusual praise for Jawaharlal
Nehru and Mahatma Gandhi from Pakistan’s foreign ministry of all
the places. It is another matter that the expression of affection is
late by 70 years when it could have shepherded history towards a
revolutionary possibility. Yet, the fact that it has come at all is
significant.
Modi’s opponents are challenging the essential reason for the new
law, to exclude Muslims and include everyone else from the three
Muslim-majority countries in South Asia. The north-eastern states
see this as a betrayal, while the rest of the opposition sees it as an
affront to the constitution, in particular the preamble, which
promises equality to all citizens in the secular project called India.
Women have been at the forefront of the protests in Assam and
elsewhere. Savour the poem by Parinitha Shetty, a much-loved
woman writer-activist. The poem I refuse to be has been rather
well-received (and trolled) on the social media.
The gripping lines sum up the fight majority of Hindu men and
women are fighting hand in hand with Muslims against Modi’s and
Shah’s majoritarian worldview. Writes Shetty:
“I refuse to be the Hindu you want to shape me into.
I refuse to be the Hindu vote which will sustain the insane authority
of your power.
I refuse to be the saffron of your Hindu flag that you bear like a
sword ready to kill.
I refuse to be the Hindu for whom Rama can only be worshipped
in the temple you will build after reducing a mosque to rubble.
I refuse the citizenship of your Hindu Nation in which Muslims will
not be my equals as fellow citizens.
I refuse to be a Hindu who does not recognise that dead soldiers
are the price we pay
For dividing ourselves as Hindus from those who are our own.
I refuse to be a Hindu who is made to recognise herself in the
images of inhuman monsters you hold before me and which you
claim are my reflections in a mirror.
I refuse to allow you to crush the many-splendoured, many hued,
glorious, joyous, infinitely spiritual, creatively mutating and deeply
compassionate possibilities of being a Hindu,
into the slogan of hate
into the rhetoric of fear
into the prison of bigotry
into the law of the tyrant
into a fragmented nation.
I refuse to be the Hindu you want me to be And I will defy every
effort of yours to dehumanise me And shape me into that
monstrous creature you call by the name Hindu.”
The current phase of the Modi-Shah plot was recently tested in
Jammu and Kashmir. Badgered Kashmiris more so today than ever
before want not to be part of India, but they are stopped from acting
on this quest with brute military force. Indian Muslims, on the
other hand, have always taken a more involved view. They toiled to
make the country work in a spirit of secular democracy as promised
by the largest democracy’s founding fathers. Muslims had
everything to gain from the secular statute as the guarantor of a
multicultural polity, and much to lose from its disuse. They know
now that they are no longer alone in the tryst. n
The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.
jawednaqvi@gmail.com
Published in Dawn, December 17th, 2019
 An unjust penalty
Alice Mogwe | Farah Zia December 17, 2019
TODAY, Dec 17, 2019, marks five years since the
moratorium on the death penalty was lifted in Pakistan,
following the tragic killing of over 130 children at the
Army Public School in Peshawar in 2014.
The moratorium, which lasted close to seven years, had placed
Pakistan firmly on the path to abolition, following a global trend
that has seen more countries abolishing the death penalty with
each passing year. But today, sadly, Pakistan has not only rejoined
the ranks of retentionist countries but is one of the highest
executioners in the world. By mid-2017, Pakistan had awarded
capital punishment to more than 450 people since the end of the
moratorium, placing it among the top five biggest executioners in
the world.
Yet, despite political rhetoric that claims executions are a deterrent
for crime, the record shows that is far from the truth. And while it
may be too early to ask Pakistan to declare itself abolitionist, at the
very least, it is time for it to initiate a new moratorium, if only
because there is a solid case for doing so.
Despite thousands of convictions and death sentences over the past
five years, there is no conclusive evidence that capital punishment
has reduced incidents of terrorism or that they have deterred other
forms of crime. In at least one case of child abuse and murder in
the small town of Kasur in the heart of Punjab, the accused was
caught, tried and hanged in less than a year — a speedy process by
any standard, and one aimed at deterring such crimes. And yet
more such crimes have come to light since then, clearly disproving
that theory.
Five years since executions were resumed, it’s time for reforms in
the criminal justice system.
Meanwhile, civil society has repeatedly highlighted the myriad
problems in the criminal justice system. As our organisations
demonstrated in a report published earlier this year, the flaws are
present at all levels of the system: investigations, prosecutions and
trials are undertaken in such a way that they increase the chance of
innocent people being caught up in the system. Unfair trials, the
lack of legal aid, the prevalent use of torture in custody, and the
continued imposition of capital punishment on juveniles and the
mentally disabled, in blatant disregard of both domestic and
international law and standards, paint a sad picture for Pakistan.
The work of our organisations and many others is backed by data
that highlights the systematic and widespread nature of these
issues. A study published by Reprieve and the Foundation for
Fundamental Rights in March examined Supreme Court
jurisprudence in capital cases from 2010 to 2018, with eye-opening
findings. The study found that the Supreme Court was increasingly
overturning convictions or ordering a review in a majority of death
sentences: 78pc of cases for the whole period studied, and 83pc of
cases from 2015 to the end of 2018, including a staggering 97pc in
2018.
Over and again, the Supreme Court has ruled that the evidence
produced in capital cases was not sufficient; that procedural errors
had been present at all stages of the investigation and trial, and that
the burden of proof had not been reached. Furthermore, the study
found that the Supreme Court was upholding the death penalty
only for lethal offences. Yet Pakistani laws still include an
astounding 32 crimes that are punishable by death, the great
majority of which fail to meet the “most serious crimes” threshold
mandated by international law.
This data leads us to one conclusion: the criminal justice system in
Pakistan is too flawed to continue implementing the death penalty.
Regardless of where we stand on the issue of abolition, we can all
agree that executing innocent people cannot be accepted.
The government must prioritise a substantial reform of the
criminal justice system to guarantee fair trial rights and address
issues that have been reported time and time again. These steps are
necessary both for Pakistan’s credibility internationally and to
develop a criminal justice system that is fair to all and actually
effective in deterring crime.
Five years after the Army Public School tragedy, the country as well
as society is better placed to engage itself in a productive debate on
the future of capital punishment. That debate must happen now.
That is the way forward for the next five years: to ensure there is
space for a real debate on the question of abolition, on the public
stage, and to include a diverse set of voices in those discussions. We
strongly believe that there already is enough evidence to put a
moratorium in place; it is time to include the public at large in this
debate in a cool, rational way.
Farah Zia is director, Human Rights Commission of Pakistan.
Alice Mogwe is president, International Federation for Human
Rights.
Published in Dawn, December 17th, 2019
 Human development in
Pakistan
By DR HAFIZ A PASHA on December 17, 2019
The Global Human Development Report (GHDR) of the UNDP was
released recently in Islamabad. This report constructs a Human
Development Index (HDI) for 189 countries. This ranking of countries
has emerged as a key measure of the level of development in relative
terms of different countries.
The HDI has three components, viz., per capita income, health and
education. The health index is measured by the life expectancy. The
education index includes expected and mean years of schooling. Per
capita income is measured at 2011 PPP $. Equal weight is attached to
the three sub-indices to arrive at the composite HDI.
The GHDR enables a comparison of the HDI of major South Asian
countries like Bhutan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri
Lanka. The perhaps not so startling revelation is that Pakistan has the
lowest HDI ranking among these six countries. The ranking of Pakistan
is 152 out of 189 countries. Sri Lanka has the highest ranking among
the six countries, followed by India and Bhutan. The absolute value of
the HDI ranges from zero to one. The HDI value of Pakistan is 0.570 as
compared to 0.780 of Sri Lanka, 0.647 of India and 0.614 of
Bangladesh.
Has Pakistan always had the lowest position in the HDI among South
Asian countries? The answer is no. The HDI of countries was first
constructed by the UNDP in 1990. The intellectual leadership for this
path breaking work was provided by two outstanding economists of
South Asia, namely, our Dr Mahbubul Haq and Dr A. K. Sen of India.
The first ranking of 1990 placed Pakistan ahead of Bangladesh and
Nepal. The HDI value for Pakistan then was only 6 percent behind
India. Following extraordinarily rapid growth in HDI, Bangladesh
went ahead of Pakistan in 2000. Nepal performed exceptionally well
from 2000 to 2010 and achieved a higher ranking than Pakistan in
2010. The gap in the HDI of India and Pakistan has continued to widen
and now stands at 14 percent.
Where does Pakistan perform poorly in the sub-indices? The life
expectancy of the population of the country is 6 percent less than the
average for South Asian countries. Similarly, the per capita income is
lower by 20 percent. The biggest gap is in the expected years of
schooling of as much as 27 percent. Clearly, the relatively backward
position in the HDI is more attributable to the relatively poor
performance in providing education to its population.
There are also significant differences in the performance with respect
to the rate of improvement in HDI in different periods. The country
saw the fastest growth in the HDI between 2000 and 2010 and the
slowest between 2010 and 2018. The annual growth rate of the HDI in
the former period was 1.5 percent which fell to only 0.8 percent in the
latter period.
The slowdown in the rate of improvement in recent years raises some
fundamental questions. Why did this occur despite the big increase in
Federal transfers to the Provinces after the 7th NFC award? The
Provincial Governments account for over 88 percent of the public
expenditure on education and health. Increased transfers did lead to
higher outlays on social services. The total government spending on
education and health combined was 2.4 percent in 2009-10, the last
year of the 6th NFC Award. Thereafter, it has risen to 3.5 percent by
2017-18.
Why did the outcomes in terms of the health and education indicators
not improve in the period after the 7th NFC Award became operative?
There is need first to contrast the performance from 2010 onwards
with the significantly better improvement in the earlier period of 2000
to 2010 when resources allocated for health and education were
smaller as a percentage of the GDP.
One important reason was the decentralization of delivery of basic
social and economic services to elected district governments during the
Musharraf era. This enabled a better reflection of peoples' preferences
on allocation of expenditures and greater accountability of
functionaries in the delivery of services. Consequently, there was faster
increase of enrollments at the primary, middle and high school level.
The post-Musharraf period has witnessed a reversion back of the
delivery of social services to Provincial Line Departments in most parts
of the country. There have been some concerns about the quality of
service provision and of greater leakages from expanding budgets,
especially in the presence of inadequate institutional capacity.
Also, while the level of spending on education and health as a
percentage of the GDP has increased it still remains generally low by
South Asian standards. In 2017-18, public spending on these two
services combined was 3.5 percent of the GDP in Pakistan as compared
to 5.2 percent of the GDP in India; 5.4 percent of the GDP in Sri Lanka;
3.2 percent of the GDP in Bangladesh and 5.7 percent of the GDP in
Nepal. This is a reflection of greater pre-emption of public resources by
debt servicing and defense expenditure in Pakistan and a relatively low
tax-to-GDP ratio in comparison to India.
There have also been problems with priorities in allocation of
expenditure within education and health respectively. In the former
service, the fastest growth in expenditure has been on higher
education. With a population which is one sixth of India, Pakistan has
almost one fourth of the number of universities. There is clearly a need
for expanding the network and improving the quality especially of
public schools and linking them more closely with vocational and
technical training. Also, within health, bulk of the spending is on
curative services. Consequently, preventive health programs and
population planning have been given much less priority.
Further, there is need to recognize that the rise in real per capita
income was faster in the earlier period. Between 2000 and 2010 the
growth rate achieved was 2.4 percent which fell to1.8 percent between
2010 and 2018. This also had a significant negative impact on the rate
of improvement of the HDI of the country, which is now the slowest
growing in South Asia.
Overall, the GHDR of 2019 must continue to serve as a major eye
opener for the authorities in Pakistan. There is need to recognize the
strong virtuous cycle between human development and economic
growth. Perhaps the best example of this in the South Asian context is
Bangladesh.
Today, even the IMF has recognised the value of investment in the
people. Among the indicative targets for 2019-20 in the EFF of
Pakistan with the IMF, a target has been set for the first time on the
floor to spending on education and health. This is indeed a major step
forward in attempting to achieve stabilization with a human face. The
target has been set at 3.9 percent of the GDP in 2019-20. Last year this
spending had fallen to 3.4 percent of the GDP. We hope that the
Federal and Provincial Governments will make a strong effort to
achieving this target and to simultaneously improving the quality and
impact of such spending.
(The writer is Professor Emeritus at BNU and former
Federal Minister)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2019

 Exports: key to sustainable
economy
By SHAHID SATTAR, ASAD ABBAS AND EMAN
AHMED on December 17, 2019
It is encouraging to see evidence that Pakistan is on the road to recovery
in terms of economic stability and growth. With a26% quantitative
increase in textile exports, the first current account surplus in decades
amounting to $20 million, and a place among the best performing
stock markets in the world, Pakistan seems to be doing surprisingly
well. A recent assessment of credit ratings by Moody's Investors Service
reaffirms these statistics, deeming Pakistan's economy to be stable and
on the road to recovery.
This news is reassuring, given that the incumbent government was met
with the task of reviving an economy in tatters, with an unsustainable
balance of payments and complications in financing of external
obligations.
How did the economy landed in these dire straits in the first place? The
faulty consumption-led growth policies, irrational tariff structures,
imposition of duties on import of raw materials and artificially set
exchange rates are to blame. In addition to all this, the unsustainable
mechanism of borrowing beyond our means precipitated an inevitable
day of reckoning.
This reckoning revealed itself in the form of a high interest rate, double
digit inflation, deterioration of primary and fiscal deficits, continuous
private sector losses, cutbacks in investments, large-scale
unemployment, losses in consumer purchasing power and a
subsequently lower standard of living.
Taking the worrisome state of affairs into account, the strategies
employed to revive the economy included floating the exchange rate to
a more realistic level, providing regionally competitive energy to major
exporting sectors and issuing pending refunds accumulated under
previous governments. These initiatives all played a significant role in
spearheading the stability we see today.
This stability has not been attained without a price, and given that we
are now at a much better vantage point, there is a need to steer towards
a sustainable growth strategy primarily based on exports. This is a
crucial step in quelling future dependency on loans.
Progress, particularly in terms of necessary expansion and
development, is likely to be difficult if the aftershocks of the recent
imbalances in our economy are not systematically addressed. The oft-
repeated mantra that the export sector has not shown the desired
growth despite the reduced cost of doing business blatantly disregards
the root cause.
The aftershocks are broadly two-fold: quantitative and qualitative.
An assessment of quantitative impediments to the textile sector
becoming regionally competitive highlights certain urgent causes for
concern, along the lines of inhibitory energy tariffs, a renewed set of
zero-rating woes, avoidance of crucial refunding and forced duties on
cotton imports – all of which inhibit the urgent need to restore a
sustainable Balance of Payments and to curtail the dependence on
external funding.
Although the Ministry of Energy's efforts to aid industrialists should
not be dismissed, the elephant in the room is yet to be addressed: a
sustainable energy tariff for industries. The 25 percent increase in
electricity tariffs as a quarterly adjustment coupled with further add-
ons is likely to be debilitating. Despite notifications clearly stating that
an all-inclusive tariff will be implemented, these developments will not
only shatter confidence in government policies but will also seriously
hamper viability. Furthermore, the energy rates have to be fixed for a
minimum period of 5 years so that investments in expansion and
modernization can be planned and executed.
The withdrawal of zero rating has resulted in the constriction of
investible capital in the market, while the cost of borrowing to meet
such capital demands has also significantly risen, giving investors little
to no incentive to carry on their business activities. Profit margins in
the industry are currently around 5-6 percent at most, whereas the
funds blocked in GST are of the order of 12 percent of sales, leading to
the current liquidity crisis.
As a consequence, there is a dire need to sensitize the FBR regarding
its delayed provision of refunds on income and sales tax over the last
couple of years. A sum of Rs.100 billion has been collected over a period
of five months as sales tax from the textile sector and is yet to be
refunded, while the payments for the technological upgradation
scheme 2009-14 is also pending. The majority of these refund
applications are rejected by the system due to Form-H and
unannounced boundaries for acceptance in the FASTER system.
Moreover, those applicants whose sales tax returns and forms have
been accepted are not being refunded within the stipulated time of 72
hours.
Collectively, these factors give way to lowered market confidence
among the industry and a reluctance to subscribe to these subsidized
loan schemes in the future. Meanwhile, there are factors such as fully
utilized capacities of textile mills, and order books that are overflowing
with unmet requirements. Many of our exporters have decided to close
their production lines due to a lack of sufficient funds to run these lines
feasibly, rendering the opportunities created for an increase in market
share unattainable.
Another quantitative impediment to the thriving of our textile sector is
the much decreased volume of cotton crop. The current cotton arrival
estimates fall far short of what is needed to fulfil domestic
requirements of the textile industry, and these shortages force the
entire value chain to rely on imported cotton, resulting in further
inefficiencies in the manufacturing process. This year alone, the import
of a record 6 million cotton bales is required to maintain the previous
year's production and export levels.
This has caused losses worth over Rs 1 trillion to the economy and
resulted in the need to import cotton, which is further tainted by a 3
percent customs duty, 2 percent additional customs duty and 5 percent
sales tax on its import.
With the increased burden of paying these duties on cotton imports,
sustaining competition with giants like China, India, Bangladesh,
Vietnam and Sri Lanka becomes an impossible task. It is therefore
crucial that these duties be removed if the objective of increasing
exports is to be achieved.
This brings us to a qualitative assessment of the inhibiting factors. The
cotton crisis is not only stifling our growth when it comes to numbers,
but also due to the deteriorating quality of locally produced cotton. This
deterioration can be attributed to seed quality and ginning practices,
which are far behind those adopted by other regional players. Most
industries have institutionalized advanced scientific methods such as
genetically modified seeds and modern ginning practices that have a
far higher potential.
Additionally, regional players have acquired more advanced
machinery that is cutting edge and has immense potential to maximize
productivity at lower costs, while Pakistan's investment in technical
machinery has dropped to the dismal level of 44 percent of what it was
in 2005-2006. Investment in technology showed only a 1 percent
improvement, whereas regional competitors achieved impressive
increases from 2006 to 2015.
=============================================
Investment in Technology (2006-15)
=============================================
Countries Spindles % Change Shuttle Less % Change
(Mins) Looms (000)
=============================================
China 55.7 63% 465 78%
India 25 28% 78.6 13%
Bangladesh 4.29 5% 42.9 7%
Pakistan 2.95 3% 7.3 1%
=============================================
Total 88 100% 594 100%
=============================================
Technology upgradation programmes that boost capacity and
modernization are essential if we wish to globally competitive. The
government support in the form of tax incentives is to be a crucial factor
in attracting investments in this regard. Such incentives are widely
available to our competitors like Vietnam, China, India and
Bangladesh.
Other qualitative factors which need to be considered include a global
shift in consumer preferences, from cotton-based apparel to synthetic
manmade fibers. In the world market, the consumption of MMF
against cotton has tilted to a ratio of 70:30, whereas a decade ago it was
quite the opposite. Presently, the most dominantly consumed man-
made fabric is polyester. Meanwhile, polyester is heavily taxed at the
input stage in efforts to protect the Lotte Purified Terephthalic Acid
(PTA) plant. This plant is still running on outdated technology which is
no longer used in the manufacture of PTA anywhere in the world,
bringing us back to the crucial matter of technological upgradation and
how the lack thereof can prove to be disastrous.
Given the importance of considering consumer preferences in an
industry like textiles, the protection given to Lotte needs to be reduced
to an appropriate level, and the duty on MMF yarn needs to be adjusted
to provide incentive for the domestic MMF industry to thrive and fulfill
industry requirements. A flourishing MMF industry has the potential
to play a crucial role in enabling Pakistan to compete internationally,
and would prevent job losses for over 100,000 people.
The amalgam of these unresolved issues is resulting in immense
pressure for the textile industry to remain competitive, and this by
default will have grave consequences for our economy. There is an
undeniable need for a broader long-term policy that ensures investors'
confidence and provides them with a business and investment friendly
environment, in order to actualize the goal of export-led growth in the
foreseeable future.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2019

 How successful was COP25?
By Rina Saeed Khan Published: December 16, 2019

“We’ll be watching you,” said teen activist and global

star Greta Thunberg to world leaders back in September
at the UN in New York. Last week at the climate
conference in Madrid she again called out political
leaders from rich countries for “misleading” people
about the climate crisis and “finding clever ways around
having to take real action.” For me the highlight of the
United Nations Climate Change Conference 2019
(COP25) was Thunberg’s speech, given to the plenary
during the ‘High-Level Event on Climate Emergency’.
 This was followed by an impromptu protest by fellow
youth activists on the main stage – which has never been
done before during a UN plenary session.
The climate talks, she said, “have turned into some kind of
opportunity for countries to negotiate loopholes and to avoid
raising their ambition.” She was speaking to negotiators and
ministers from almost 200 countries – the early morning meeting
was packed once word got around that Thunberg would be
attending the high level segment of the conference. I had to wake
up even earlier last Wednesday to arrive well in time to enter the
large hall before 9am.
Her words proved to be prophetic because COP25 ended with a
dismal outcome. The two weeks of negotiations were stretched out
to two more days and ended on Sunday without achieving much.
Bleary-eyed negotiators who had barely slept in the last 48 hours
signed onto yet even more vague statements of intent, working
groups and networks.
 According to the Climate Action Network (CAN) monitoring the
talks as an observer NGO group:
“Bogged down by bad faith negotiations that put politics and fossil-
fuel interests above people and the planet, many countries —
fronted by the United States, Australia and Brazil — once again
exposed their apathy to the suffering of millions and a willful
rejection of the science. The gap between what people are
demanding for a climate-safe future and what leaders are willing to
do is widening as emissions rise, fossil fuel production expands and
impacts escalate. This is unacceptable.”
CAN pointed out that large emitters failed to show clear signals
about increasing ambition by 2020 and rich countries reneged on
the promise to provide finance for loss and damage to vulnerable
countries hit hard by climate change. In addition, there was no
agreement on carbon market rules, which many negotiators said
was the biggest disappointment at the COP.
Thunberg left the conference on Thursday, long before the closing
plenary to head home to Sweden by train. Before leaving she had
reminded the negotiators about what the science is warning,
imploring them to listen to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change.
To have more than a 50% chance of keeping the global temperature
from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels ―
the aspirational goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement ― the world can
emit only 570 gigatons of carbon dioxide she said. Studies show we
are on track to go way past that carbon budget within a decade, and
that meeting the 1.5-degree target requires cutting global emissions
7.6 percent every year from 2020 to 2030, a goal nowhere in sight.
“How do you react to these numbers without feeling at least some
level of panic?” Thunberg asked the room full of delegates and
observers during her speech. She noted that 100 companies are
responsible for 71% of greenhouse gas emissions, and that since the
Paris Agreement global banks have invested $1.9 trillion in fossil
fuels.

She ended on a positive note, however, saying:

 “Change does not come from the governments or the
corporations. It comes from the people who have been unaware
but are starting to wake up. Once we become aware we change…
People are ready for change.”
Jennifer Morgan, the executive director of Greenpeace
International, also spoke during the plenary, saying, “The facts
have been laid out by the scientists. We have to bring the best
brains in the world together and find a way to phase out fossil fuels
and deforestation.” She further added, “I hope humanity can find a
way – giving up hope would be giving up on humanity and I’m not
ready for that.”
Another highlight of this plenary was an emotional speech from
Hilda Flavia Nakabuye, a youth climate activist and rising star from
Uganda. “We need leadership on climate action, not talks,” she
said. “You’ve been negotiating for the last 25 years, even before I
was born. Do you want the whole of Africa to first perish before you
start acting?”
As the panel discussion came to an end, dozens of young activists
from the Fridays for Future movement stormed the stage, where
they chanted and staged a sit-in to demand immediate action. “We
are unstoppable, another world is possible” they clapped and sang
and refused to get off the stage until UN security threatened to clear
the room.
Another fascinating talk I attended at the COP was by the upbeat
Al Gore who said that solutions to the climate crisis are within
grasp. In his view, the fossil fuel era is coming an end. He likened
renewable energy to the advent of mobiles phones. How they
surpassed all market predictions and overtook landlines in such a
short time. He stated, “solar-plus-batteries are set to begin a
dramatic transformation of human civilisation.” He noted that
most of the oil under the ground would end up staying there, as
“the vast majority of carbon reserves are unburnable.” After the
industrial and green revolution, he said we now have the
sustainability revolution. It just needs to happen fast so that we can
avoid runaway climate change.
For me personally, it was exhilarating to be at a climate conference
with 20,000 other people all trying to find a way to bring the world
together to cut our global emissions in time to avert a catastrophe.
Yes, I was disappointed that many decisions have been left to the
Glasgow conference next year, but the fight continues. The Glasgow
COP will initiate the implementation of the Paris Agreement so the
deadline is 2020 and it will be a tough fight. The young people at
the conference stole the show and I was happy to see their
determination from up close.
I spent the last days of the conference at Pakistan’s launch of its
well-received Ecosystem Restoration Fund at a side-event.
Pakistan made an impact at this COP even without a country
pavilion thanks to the leadership of the advisor to the Prime
Minsiter on Climate Change, Malik Amin Aslam, who led a small
but experienced delegation to the COP. Pakistan was not only
confirmed as a COP vice-president but also secured memberships
of the Clean Development Mechanism’s Executive Board,
Adaptation Committee, Technology Executive Committee,
Compliance Committee under the Paris Agreement, Adaptation
Fund Board and Warsaw International Mechanism. Next year we
will be an influential voice at the climate conference.

(All photos courtesy of Rina Saeed Khan)