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monitoring the food security of the planet. Valuable geospatial
insight is shifting our predictive models and enabling us to
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First publishedin ITS International
Traffic planners will have to accommodate the increasing Hurricane Katrina demonstrated the
type of extensive damage traffic planners will face in a changing climate
Climate change will pose global and local challenges and that includes risks to the
transportation infrastructure.
Climate change adaptation and resiliency has captured the attention of the
transportation community for some time now. Because transportation infrastructure
is often designed to last for 30, 50, or 100 years or even longer, transportation
professionals are concerned not only about the impact on our existing investments,
but also how to design more durable transportation systems for the future.
Impacts
Most climate scientists are in agreement that extreme weather events will be more
common in the future, although the specific effects will be localised, coupled with a
high degree of uncertainty. As a result, climate models have focused on trying to
better predict the geographic variation in impacts, and the specific types of impacts
most likely to occur. In general, many areas of the globe will likely experience
higher temperatures and more frequent heat events, changes in precipitation
patterns, declining snowpack and changes in river flows, SEA level rise and more
extreme storm activity. Each of these effects will impact transportation
infrastructures and those impacts need to be evaluated and become part of the
transportation design and planning processes.
ZOOM
The next step is determining the degree of exposure of transportation assets, and
HERE a great deal of effort is often spent ‘downscaling’ global or regional models of
climate change effects to the local context. Most transportation professionals rely on
local University climate scientists to help determine more precise estimates of SEA
level rise, increased precipitation, extreme temperature events and other
impacts. These predicted impacts are often overlaid on precise elevation models
captured from Lidar, together with slope measurements (to calculate increased
landslide potential) and the existing inventory of transportation infrastructure. The
current and future condition of the asset helps to determine the vulnerability of
those assets to these climate impacts.
As few agencies are able to evaluate the totality of their transportation assets, they
need to determine the relative importance or criticality of their assets. The criticality
of the asset is often determined by its economic importance and the availability of
alternatives. HERE again, GIS-based network models can help assess the relative
importance of various assets. These calculations are often driven by qualitative
assessments such as tolerances for risk and what the community values.
Pilot Studies
In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the Federal Highway
Administration funded five pilot studies, to test their process and methodology,
and now has funded 19 Climate Resilience Pilots. Washington DOT was an early
leader among State Departments of Transportation and one of the original five
pilots. It conducted a year-long study2 to calculate and understand the future
vulnerabilities of their transportation networks. Combining a GIS-based inventory of
existing transportation facilities with climate research from the University of
Washington, Washington DOT also brought together the local transportation
engineers with the most detailed knowledge of their local assets. Combining a
qualitative and quantitative assessment, the transportation agency modelled the
predicted impacts from a variety of climate effects in an effort to assist state
planners.
ZOOM
Modelled effect of severe storm to Honolulu Harbor
Looking ahead
While a number of studies highlighted impressive GIS-based models, it is clear that
much more needs to be done. This March, President Obama unveiled the Climate
Data Initiative which is making available a large number of climate-related data sets
from the federal government. It is also encouraging private researchers and
practitioners to develop a wide range of new applications designed to help combat
global climate change and to help communities better adapt to future climate
changes. It’s a call to use open government data on climate change risks and
impacts in compelling and useful ways that help citizens, businesses and
communities make Smart choices in the face of climate change.
Secondly, ESRI will host a wealth of governmental data (US and other countries)
and make it available to researchers and practitioners to provide the foundation for
future development. Citizens and professionals can go online to Discover, contribute
and share resources critical to confronting the impacts of climate change. This
website will offer a starting point for open data and ideas and over time it will grow
and evolve as more scientists, government bodies and citizens contribute. “We felt it
was important to establish this collaborative network of individuals and organisations
who use GIS to come together to combat the impacts of climate change,” said ESRI
president Jack Dangermond.
Thirdly, ESRI recently announced its Climate Resilience App Challenge. Developers
can use open data and ESRI apps, maps, services and application program
interfaces to create maps and analytical tools that help communities establish and
grow more resilient practices. This challenge supports the White House Climate Data
Initiative as it inspires developers to focus their efforts on making maps and
analytical tools that help communities see, understand and prepare for climate risks.
To extend the reach of these efforts, the company has partnered with a number of
other organisations, including the International City/County Management
Association, National Association of Counties, National League of Cities, the
American Public Works Association and the American Planning Association. These
efforts are designed to focus attention on the necessity of better preparing our
existing infrastructure for climate resiliency and to better plan future infrastructure.
As Dangermond stated, “as governments, businesses, innovators and citizens work
toward this common goal, both a knowledge base and real-world tools will be
created that people around the globe can use to build more resilient communities.”