LatinFocus Consensus Forecast - June 2019

LATINFOCUS
CONSENSUSFORECAST
Latin America • June 2019
SUMMARY 2
NEWS IN FOCUS 7
CALENDAR 20
ARGENTINA 21
BRAZIL 35
CHILE 50
COLOMBIA 65
MEXICO 80
PERU 97
VENEZUELA 112
OTHER COUNTRIES 121
BOLIVIA 121
ECUADOR 124
PARAGUAY 130
URUGUAY 133
NOTES 139
Contributors
PUBLICATION DATE 11 June 2019 ANGELA BOUZANIS
FORECASTS COLLECTED 4 June - 9 June 2019 LATIN AMERICA LEAD ECONOMIST
INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 9 June 2019
ARNE POHLMAN THOMAS FENGE RICARD TORNE
NEXT EDITION 9 July 2019 Chief Economist Head of Data Lead Economist
Solutions
WILLIAM O’CONNELL JOSÉ DANIEL MARÍN ADRIANA VILANOVA
Editor Data Scientist Data Analyst
NICOLAS J. AGUILAR LINDSEY ICE JOAN ARGILAGÓS

Economist Economist Junior Data Analyst
NIHAD AHMED JAN LAMMERSEN PAULA ESCRIHUELA
MASSIMO BASSETTI OLIVER REYNOLDS ANDRÉS FIORINI
STEVEN BURKE JOFFREY SIMONET GUILLEM FOUCAULT
JAVIER COLATO ALMANAS STANAPEDIS STÉPHANIE HOBEICHE
OLGA COSCODAN CHRISTOPHER THOMAS ROGER MEDINA
EDWARD GARDNER RICCARDO SACCHI
Economist Junior Data Analyst
ANDREU TIXIS
Junior Data Analyst
FOCUSECONOMICS Summary Summary June 2019
Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, variation in %
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
World 2.8 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.2 2.6 3.0 2.7 2.7
United States 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.4 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.0 2.1
Euro Area 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.4 0.2 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.5
China 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.0 2.0 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2
Japan 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 -0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.2
Latin America -0.1 1.8 1.5 1.7 2.4 8.8 6.4 8.2 6.8 5.7
Centam & Caribbean 2.8 2.4 2.3 3.4 3.2 1.9 3.1 1.9 2.9 2.9
Chile 1.7 1.3 4.0 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.9
Mexico 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.8 3.4 6.8 4.8 3.7 3.6
Mercosur -2.8 1.5 0.4 0.9 2.3 14.2 8.1 13.3 11.0 8.5
Argentina -2.1 2.7 -2.5 -1.3 2.1 41.0 24.8 47.6 39.1 26.4
Brazil -3.3 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.3 6.3 2.9 3.7 4.1 4.1
Paraguay 4.3 5.0 3.7 3.3 3.8 3.9 4.5 3.2 3.8 3.8
Uruguay 1.7 2.6 1.6 1.2 2.0 8.1 6.6 8.0 7.6 7.1
Venezuela -17.0 -15.7 -18.4 -24.6 -3.8 274 863 130,060 5,590,864 1,768,879
Andean Com. 2.3 2.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 4.1 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.6
Bolivia 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.7 4.0 2.7 1.5 2.8 3.9
Colombia 2.1 1.4 2.6 3.1 3.2 5.7 4.1 3.2 3.3 3.2
Ecuador -1.2 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.7 1.1 -0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1
Peru 4.0 2.5 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.2 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.3
Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in % Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

8 10
2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020
8
6
2
2
0 0
World United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America World United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
World -3.2 -2.7 -2.6 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
United States -3.7 -3.4 -3.8 -4.6 -4.7 -2.3 -2.3 -2.4 -2.6 -2.6
Euro Area -1.6 -1.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.7
China -3.8 -3.7 -4.2 -4.2 -4.3 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.2
Japan -3.7 -3.2 -3.4 -3.4 -3.0 4.0 4.2 3.5 3.2 3.1
Latin America -5.6 -4.9 -4.4 -4.0 -3.7 -1.7 -1.4 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7
Centam & Caribbean -2.7 -3.1 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.1
Chile -2.7 -2.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 -2.1 -3.1 -2.9 -2.7
Mexico -2.5 -1.1 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 -2.3 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.9
Mercosur -8.1 -7.2 -6.5 -5.7 -5.3 -1.5 -1.3 -1.7 -1.3 -1.6
Argentina -5.9 -5.9 -5.2 -3.7 -2.9 -2.7 -4.9 -5.2 -2.1 -2.0
Brazil -9.0 -7.8 -7.1 -6.4 -6.0 -1.3 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6
Paraguay -1.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 3.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 0.6
Uruguay -3.8 -3.5 -2.9 -3.2 -3.1 0.6 0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1
Venezuela -15.6 -16.8 -17.3 -17.5 -17.3 -0.4 6.1 4.9 1.6 0.6
Andean Com. -4.2 -3.8 -2.8 -2.6 -2.2 -2.9 -2.3 -2.8 -2.7 -2.6
Bolivia -7.3 -7.8 -7.6 -7.4 -6.6 -5.6 -5.0 -4.9 -5.0 -4.9
Colombia -4.0 -3.6 -3.1 -2.6 -2.4 -4.2 -3.3 -3.9 -4.0 -3.8
Ecuador -7.3 -4.5 -1.2 -1.2 0.0 1.3 -0.5 -1.3 -0.4 0.2
Peru -2.3 -3.0 -2.3 -2.2 -2.0 -2.6 -1.2 -1.6 -1.7 -1.8
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, % of GDP

0 6
2017 2018 2019 2020
-2 3
-4 0
2017 2018 2019 2020

-6 -3
World United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America
Note: Latin America, Mercosur and World estimates exclude Venezuela.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |2

FOCUSECONOMICS Summary June 2019
Economic Outlook GDP in % Change in Forecast

LATIN AMERICA | 2019: 1.7% -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 -0.50 -0.35 -0.20 -0.05 0.10
The region is seen growing weakly this year and prospects were 2017 Mar-19
cut for a third month running in June. Trade tensions and a slowing
2018 Apr-19
global economy are seen stunting export growth broadly. On top
of this, Argentina is in the midst of a tough economic adjustment; 2019 May-19
fiscal and political challenges weigh on Brazil’s outlook; and

2020 Jun-19
uncertainty is high in Mexico owing to tension with the U.S.
ARGENTINA | 2019: -1.3%

The economy will contract this year, as sky-high interest rates, 2017 Mar-19
runaway inflation and nosediving public investment weigh on

2018 Apr-19
domestic demand. Nevertheless, external accounts should
improve markedly, thanks to higher agricultural output and a 2019 May-19
weaker peso. The uncertain outcome of this October’s elections

2020 Jun-19
and possible financial turbulence cloud the outlook.
BRAZIL | 2019: 1.4%

The recovery is seen languishing this year, picking up only 2017 Mar-19
modestly from 2018. Reform uncertainty will weigh on the business

2018 Apr-19
environment and dampen investment, while fiscal tightening and
a tough external backdrop from rising protectionism and slowing 2019 May-19
global growth will also take their toll. This month, Brazil’s prospects
2020 Jun-19
were slashed for the fourth consecutive month.
CHILE | 2019: 3.1%

Growth is projected to decelerate this year, as reignited trade 2017 Mar-19
tensions and a slowing global economy weigh on exports.

2018 Apr-19
Moreover, sluggish gains in employment growth suggest that
private consumption could struggle to sustain momentum. 2019 May-19
Nevertheless, solid fixed investment, buoyed by upbeat credit

2020 Jun-19
growth and an upcoming tax reform, should buffer any slowdown.
COLOMBIA | 2019: 3.1%

Growth is expected to pick up this year, propelled by stronger 2017 Mar-19
investment activity thanks to infrastructure and oil sector projects.

2018 Apr-19
Fiscal tightening, however, is set to weigh on activity, while the
external sector is also seen remaining in the doldrums. Risks 2019 May-19
stem from uncertainties over the pace of fiscal reform and the
2020 Jun-19
challenging external backdrop.
MEXICO | 2019: 1.5%

U.S. tariffs, if imposed, would devastate the economy. Moreover, 2017 Mar-19
the unfolding diplomatic crisis has already shaken USMCA-related

2018 Apr-19
certainty and frightened investors. Policy uncertainty in light of
AMLO’s nascent presidency and flagging oil and gas output, 2019 May-19
meanwhile, are also expected to weigh on growth this year.

2020 Jun-19
PERU | 2019: 3.6%

Growth will ease in 2019, as political uncertainty weighs on 2017 Mar-19
non-mining investment and infrastructure spending decelerates.

2018 Apr-19
That said, healthy credit growth and job creation should support
household spending. Intensifying global trade tensions, a stronger- 2019 May-19
than-expected economic landing in China and political uncertainty

2020 Jun-19
represent the main downside risks to growth.
Note: Change in forecast refers to 2019.

Inflation Inflation in % Change in Forecast

LATIN AMERICA | 2019: 6.8% 0 12 24 36 48 -1.00 0.25 1.50 2.75 4.00
A preliminary estimate suggest that inflation eased to 8.6% in May 2017 Mar-19
from an over two-year high of 8.7% in April. Moderating pressures
2018 Apr-19
from food prices, along with a wider pullback in global commodity
prices, were behind the decline. Looking ahead, price pressures 2019 May-19
are to remain moderate, held back by weak demand pressures

2020 Jun-19
and relatively stable currencies.
ARGENTINA | 2019: 39.1%

Inflation climbed to 55.8% in April (March: 54.7%), as persistent 2017 Mar-19
pass-through pressures from a weaker peso continued to

2018 Apr-19
materialize. Following a peak in H1, inflation should gradually fall
in H2, thanks to the combined impact of waning FX pass-through, 2019 May-19
slower food inflation and tight financial conditions.

2020 Jun-19
BRAZIL | 2019: 4.1%

Inflation fell to 4.7% in May from April’s over two-year high of 2017 Mar-19
4.9%. Reduced price pressures for food were chiefly behind the
2018 Apr-19
result. Inflation is seen easing in the coming quarters amid stunted
domestic demand and is projected to end the year below the 2019 May-19
Central Bank’s 2019 target of 4.25%.

2020 Jun-19
CHILE | 2019: 2.7%

Inflation came in at 2.3% in May, up from April’s 2.0% result, thus 2017 Mar-19
rising closer to the midpoint of the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0%

2018 Apr-19
target band. The print largely reflected higher prices for housing,
and recreation and culture. Going forward, price pressures should 2019 May-19
increase gradually amid slower GDP growth.

2020 Jun-19
COLOMBIA | 2019: 3.3%

Inflation remained at 3.3% in May. A smaller upturn in prices 2017 Mar-19
for accommodation, water and electricity, and transport costs

2018 Apr-19
offset higher price pressures emanating from a weakening peso.
Looking ahead, inflation is expected to remain largely stable this 2019 May-19
year amid more tepid private consumption growth.

2020 Jun-19
MEXICO | 2019: 3.7%

Inflation edged down to 4.3% in May (April: 4.4%) amid the slower 2017 Mar-19
rise in energy costs, landing outside Banxico’s target range of

2018 Apr-19
3.0% plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. Inflation expectations
remain elevated but could ease somewhat in the months ahead if 2019 May-19
policy uncertainty fades.

2020 Jun-19
PERU | 2019: 2.4%

Inflation rose to a 20-month high of 2.7% in May from 2.6% in 2017 Mar-19
April, mainly due to higher prices for education and culture, and
2018 Apr-19
housing. This year, firming domestic demand and higher food
prices will stoke inflation, which will be nevertheless kept in check 2019 May-19
by excess production capacity.

2020 Jun-19
Note: Change in forecast refers to 2019.

Monetary Policy Interest rate in % Change in Forecast

LATIN AMERICA | 2019: 10.52% 2.00 16.50 31.00 45.50 60.00 -2.0 1.0 4.0 7.0 10.0
Soft growth, tame inflation and a more dovish stance from the
2017 Mar-19
Fed have allowed several central banks to hold rates at low levels
recently. However, Chile’s Central Bank delivered a surprise cut in 2018 Apr-19
May amid a troubling external backdrop. In contrast, policymakers 2019 May-19

in Mexico held rates at a decade high in the same month amid
2020 Jun-19
elevated inflation expectations.
ARGENTINA | 2019: 54.02%

The latest report shows that the Central Bank (BCRA) met its 0% 2017 Mar-19
target for monetary base growth in May for the eighth consecutive
2018 Apr-19
month. In October, the Central Bank moved to a monetary rule
which sets a 0% monthly growth for the monetary base. The BCRA 2019 May-19
will keep tight albeit softening monetary conditions this year.

2020 Jun-19
BRAZIL | 2019: 6.33%

At its May meeting, the Central Bank decided to keep the SELIC 2017 Mar-19
rate at its record low of 6.50%, as the sluggish recovery continues

2018 Apr-19
to warrant an accommodative stance. Looking ahead, our panel is
split on how the Bank will act. On one hand, soft economic traction 2019 May-19
could dampen inflation and prompt a rate cut; on the other hand,
2020 Jun-19
upside risks to inflation could materialize.
CHILE | 2019: 3.04%

At its last monetary policy meeting on 7 June, the Central Bank 2017 Mar-19
unexpectedly cut the monetary policy rate by 50bp to 2.50%,

2018 Apr-19
amid softer-than-expected inflation and lackluster growth in Q1.
Looking ahead, the Bank highlighted that monetary policy will 2019 May-19
remain accommodative to ensure clear transition towards the

2020 Jun-19
target level.
COLOMBIA | 2019: 4.47%

At its 26 April meeting, the Central Bank held the benchmark 2017 Mar-19
interest rate stable at 4.25%. Relatively muted price pressures,

2018 Apr-19
largely stable inflation expectations and excess production
capacity underpinned the decision. Most panelists see the Bank 2019 May-19
gradually hiking rates by the end of the year, although the Bank’s
2020 Jun-19
Governor has hinted at maintaining the current stance.
MEXICO | 2019: 7.92%

Banxico held the target rate steady at its decade-high of 8.25% 2017 Mar-19
on 16 May amid elevated inflation, as well as rising inflation

2018 Apr-19
expectations. Heightened economic uncertainty in recent weeks,
coupled with tepid economic activity since late last year, could 2019 May-19
push policymakers to begin lowering the target rate as early as

2020 Jun-19
their next monetary policy meeting on 27 June.
PERU | 2019: 3.01%

At its 9 May monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of Peru 2017 Mar-19
kept the policy interest rate unchanged at an over eight-year

2018 Apr-19
low of 2.75%. Moderate price pressures, well-anchored inflation
expectations and below-potential economic activity underpinned 2019 May-19
the Bank’s decision. Faster inflation and solid growth should lead
2020 Jun-19
the Bank to hike interest rates this year.
Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. For rate details please see country page.
Change in forecast refers to 2019.

Exchange Rate Variation in % Change in Forecast

LATIN AMERICA | 2019: -2.3% -60.0 -42.0 -24.0 -6.0 12.0 -4.0 -2.5 -1.0 0.5 2.0
At the start of June, several currencies regained lost ground after
2017 Mar-19
having slid against the U.S. dollar in May as global trade tensions
and uncertainty hurt risker assets. Colombia and Mexico’s 2018 Apr-19
currencies have been particularly in the spotlight, amplified by 2019 May-19

fiscal concerns and a tense relationship with the U.S., respectively.
2020 Jun-19
Currencies are seen depreciating slightly overall this year.
ARGENTINA | 2019: -25.6%

On 7 June, the ARS traded at 44.86 per USD, a 0.9% appreciation 2017 Mar-19
from the same day in May. Although downbeat data on economic

2018 Apr-19
activity, together with exorbitant inflation put some downward
pressure on the local currency, the peso was pushed up by the 2019 May-19
announcement of the Fernández-Fernández ticket and dovish

2020 Jun-19
comments from Fed officials.
BRAZIL | 2019: 1.6%

The real regained some lost ground in recent weeks after having 2017 Mar-19
depreciated steadily in the first five months of the year on political

2018 Apr-19
noise and downbeat economic data. On 7 June, the real ended
the day at 3.88 per USD, a 2.4% appreciation from the same day 2019 May-19
in May. The currency is expected to be volatile this year, as news

2020 Jun-19
emerges regarding crucial reforms.
CHILE | 2019: 3.5%

The Chilean peso gained some ground in the first week of June 2017 Mar-19
after the Fed struck a dovish tone on 4 June; however, the

2018 Apr-19
improvement was not enough to offset the losses in May. On 7
June, the CLP traded at 693, a 1.2% depreciation from the same 2019 May-19
day last month. Going forward, the peso is expected to strengthen

2020 Jun-19
on upbeat copper prices.
COLOMBIA | 2019: 2.2%

On 7 June, the Colombian peso ended the day at 3,269 per USD, 2017 Mar-19
appreciating 1.0% over the same day of last month. The peso
2018 Apr-19
gained ground following dovish remarks from the US Federal
Reserve and optimism over a US–Mexican deal, which boosted 2019 May-19
investors’ appetite for Latin American currencies.

2020 Jun-19
MEXICO | 2019: -2.0%

The peso tumbled at the end of May on the announcement of 2017 Mar-19
U.S. tariffs but recovered somewhat since. On 7 June, the MXN

2018 Apr-19
traded at 19.62 per USD, depreciating 3.0% from the same day
in May. Looking ahead, a fraught trade relationship with the U.S. 2019 May-19
is expected to continue battering the peso, as will heightened

2020 Jun-19
economic and political uncertainty.
PERU | 2019: 0.8%

On 7 June, the PEN ended the day at 3.34 per USD, a 0.7% 2017 Mar-19
depreciation from the same day in May. Escalating trade disputes

2018 Apr-19
between the United States and China, tensions at Las Bambas,
and plunging copper prices—one of Peru’s main exports— 2019 May-19
weighed on the sol. Growing commodity exports and higher policy

2020 Jun-19
rates should underpin the PEN this year.
Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus USD in %. Positive

number means currency is gaining value against USD. Change in forecast refers to 2019.

FOCUSECONOMICS
News in Focus Summary June 2019
News in Focus
BRAZIL | Gross Domestic Product | variation in %
Argentina: Contraction in economic activity sharpens in
March, points to significant fall in Q1 1.5 3.0
The monthly indicator for economic activity dived 6.8% in annual

terms in March, a sharper drop than the 4.7% fall recorded in
February. The reading ends a short-lived three-month streak of 0.0 0.0
moderating economic contractions. % %
-1.5 -3.0
Brazil: GDP contracts in Q1 for the first time since 2016
Brazil’s economic recovery stalled at the start of 2019, with GDP Quarter-on-quarter s.a. (left scale)
contracting in sequential terms for the first time since the 2015- Year-on-year (right scale)
-3.0 -6.0
2016 recession. Seasonally-adjusted GDP dropped 0.2% quarter- Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019
on-quarter in Q1, contrasting the fourth quarter’s 0.1% increase. Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-
year variation %.
A breakdown by components revealed broad-based weakness Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
in Brazil’s economy, which was restrained by a limping domestic
economy and bleak external backdrop
Chile: Central Bank unexpectedly slashes policy rate in June

At its 7 June monetary policy meeting, the board of the Central
CHILE | Monetary Policy Rate | in %
Bank of Chile (BCCh) voted unanimously to cut the key policy
4.0
rate by 50 basis points to 2.50%, marking the sharpest reduction
in a decade, amid softer-than-expected inflation and lackluster
3.5
growth in the first quarter. The decision surprised analysts, who
had expected the rate to remain unchanged.
3.0
Colombia: Economy maintains momentum in Q1

The economy grew 2.8% in annual terms in the first quarter of the 2.5
year, up marginally from the fourth quarter’s revised 2.7% growth
(previously reported: +2.8% year-on-year),
2.0
Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19
Mexico: Economy slows in Q1 on industrial- and services-

sector woes Note: Monetary Policy Rate (TPM, Tasa de Política Monetaria) in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh)
A comprehensive estimate for growth in the first quarter confirmed
weaker-than-expected economic activity at the outset of the year.
In annual terms, unadjusted output grew 1.2% year-on-year
(previously reported: +1.3% year-on-year), down markedly from
1.7% in the fourth quarter of last year and a couple of notches
below analysts’ expectations.
VENEZUELA | Gross Domestic Product | variation in %
Peru: Growth sinks to two-year low in Q1 0
GDP growth in the first quarter of the year fell to 2.3%, which
was less than half Q4 2018’s 4.7% expansion and marked the
slowest increase in two years. Weaker domestic demand and a -10
more fragile external sector led the deceleration.
%
Venezuela: Rare release of Central Bank data reveals -20

magnitude of crisis
On 28 May, the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) released
macroeconomic data for the first time in nearly four years, -30
Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019
highlighting the extent of the profound economic crisis currently
gripping the country. The economy contracted a staggering 22.5%
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
in year-on-year terms in the third quarter of 2018. Source: Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

Population, millions Population, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Latin America
Latin America 589.3 595.1 600.8 606.4 612.0 617.5 622.9 Mercosur
Chile 18.4 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5
Brazil
Mexico 123.5 124.7 125.9 127.1 128.2 129.4 130.5
Mercosur 261.3 263.4 265.5 267.5 269.5 271.4 273.3 Mexico
Argentina 44.1 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.1 46.6 47.1 Andean Com.
Brazil 206.8 208.3 209.8 211.2 212.6 213.9 215.1 Colombia
Paraguay 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6
Argentina
Uruguay 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6
Peru
Venezuela 30.5 29.2 28.1 27.1 - - -
Andean Com. 109.0 110.3 111.6 112.8 114.1 115.3 116.5 Venezuela
Bolivia 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2 Chile
Colombia 49.3 49.8 50.4 50.9 51.4 51.9 52.3 Ecuador
Ecuador 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3
Bolivia
Peru 31.8 32.2 32.5 32.8 33.1 33.5 33.8
Paraguay
Uruguay
750
0 200 400 600 800
2017 2018 2019 2020
600
Notes and sources
Note: Population, millions. Latin America and Mercosur forecasts

450 exclude Venezuela.
Sources: The International Monetary Fund (IMF).
300
Given the current economic conditions in Venezuela,

FocusEconomics has discontinued providing forecasts for the
150 long-term as of the August 2018 edition of LatinFocus. We hope
to resume providing these forecasts once reliable data becomes
available. Accordingly, Venezuela has been removed from the
Latin America and Mercosur regional aggregates.
0
Latin America Mercosur Brazil Mexico Andean Com. Argentina
GDP, USD billions GDP, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Latin America
Latin America 5,358 5,193 5,216 5,481 5,781 6,118 6,460
Mercosur
Chile 279 298 299 321 342 359 377
Brazil
Mexico 1,158 1,223 1,268 1,298 1,363 1,439 1,520
Mercosur 2,801 2,506 2,452 2,602 2,749 2,918 3,079 Mexico
Argentina 649 539 475 506 543 587 614 Andean Com.
Brazil 2,053 1,868 1,878 1,994 2,099 2,216 2,342 Argentina
Paraguay 38.9 40.9 41.1 42.8 45.4 48.3 51.4
Colombia
Uruguay 60.1 58.5 58.4 59.4 62.0 66.3 71.3
Chile
Venezuela 144 129 85.3 89.5 - - -
Andean Com. 669 699 714 754 798 846 899 Peru
Bolivia 37.5 40.3 42.8 45.4 47.9 50.8 53.9 Ecuador
Colombia 312 331 326 349 372 397 423 Venezuela
Ecuador 104 108 109 111 114 118 124
Uruguay
Peru 216 220 236 248 263 281 299
Bolivia
Paraguay
6,000
0 2,000 4,000 6,000
2017 2018 2019 2020
Notes and sources

4,000
Note: GDP in current USD billions. Latin America and Mercosur
forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
2,000
0

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Bolivia
Latin America 1.8 1.5 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 Peru
Chile 1.3 4.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0
Paraguay
Mexico 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.5
Mercosur 1.5 0.4 0.9 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 Chile
Argentina 2.7 -2.5 -1.3 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.9 Colombia
Brazil 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 Andean Com.
Paraguay 5.0 3.7 3.3 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1
Latin America
Uruguay 2.6 1.6 1.2 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.2
Mexico
Venezuela -15.7 -18.4 -24.6 -3.8 - - -
Andean Com. 2.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 Brazil
Bolivia 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 Uruguay
Colombia 1.4 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 Mercosur
Ecuador 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.6
Ecuador
Peru 2.5 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9
Argentina
Venezuela -24.6
4.5
-2 0 2 4 6
2017 2018 2019 2020
3.0
Notes and sources
Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Latin

1.5 America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
0.0
-1.5
-3.0
GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Uruguay
Latin America 9,092 8,727 8,682 9,039 9,447 9,909 10,371
Chile
Chile 15,178 16,088 15,946 16,961 17,869 18,589 19,310
Mexico 9,373 9,802 10,073 10,217 10,626 11,127 11,654 Argentina
Mercosur 10,720 9,514 9,235 9,726 10,200 10,749 11,267 Mexico
Argentina 14,727 12,098 10,546 11,105 11,787 12,606 13,045 Mercosur
Brazil 9,929 8,966 8,950 9,441 9,874 10,362 10,889
Brazil
Paraguay 5,596 5,792 5,740 5,898 6,169 6,482 6,805
Uruguay 17,206 16,684 16,582 16,823 17,511 18,647 20,003 Latin America
Venezuela 4,717 4,427 3,041 3,297 - - - Peru
Andean Com. 6,141 6,341 6,399 6,685 6,992 7,339 7,717 Colombia
Bolivia 3,388 3,582 3,746 3,912 4,065 4,238 4,430
Andean Com.
Colombia 6,322 6,634 6,478 6,868 7,248 7,650 8,078
Ecuador 6,217 6,368 6,325 6,339 6,428 6,575 6,783 Ecuador
Peru 6,779 6,836 7,248 7,567 7,939 8,380 8,847 Paraguay
Bolivia
Venezuela
16,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
2017 2018 2019 2020
Notes and sources

12,000
Note: GDP per capita in current USD. Latin America and Mercosur
8,000
4,000

Consumption, annual variation in % Consumption Growth, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Bolivia
Latin America 2.5 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 Paraguay
Chile 3.0 4.0 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 Peru
Mexico 3.1 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9
Colombia
Mercosur 2.1 1.0 0.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0
Argentina 4.0 -2.4 -3.5 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 Chile
Brazil 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 Andean Com.
Paraguay 4.5 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 Mexico
Uruguay 4.6 1.5 1.4 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.4
Latin America
Venezuela -16.2 -17.5 -22.2 -0.9 - - -
Brazil
Andean Com. 2.7 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.7
Bolivia 4.7 4.3 4.5 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 Uruguay
Colombia 2.1 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 Ecuador
Ecuador 3.7 2.7 1.0 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.9 Mercosur
Peru 2.6 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1
Argentina
Venezuela -22.2
6 -6 -3 0 3 6
3 Notes and sources
Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. Latin America

and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
0
-3
2017 2018 2019 2020
-6
Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Chile
Latin America 0.3 2.2 1.2 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 Bolivia
Chile -2.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.4
Peru
Mexico -1.6 0.6 -0.6 0.8 1.7 2.3 3.0
Mercosur 0.7 1.8 0.1 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.6 Colombia
Argentina 12.2 -5.8 -10.1 6.6 6.0 5.2 4.4 Andean Com.
Brazil -2.5 4.1 2.5 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.7 Paraguay
Paraguay 5.9 1.5 3.4 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6
Brazil
Uruguay -15.7 -2.7 2.2 5.0 4.7 4.0 3.4
Uruguay
Venezuela -45.3 -33.1 -36.2 2.3 - - -
Andean Com. 2.3 2.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 Latin America
Bolivia 11.8 3.2 4.7 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.4 Ecuador
Colombia 1.9 1.5 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 Mercosur
Ecuador 5.3 2.1 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.7
Mexico
Peru -0.2 4.9 4.4 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2
Argentina
Venezuela -36.2
16
-16 -8 0 8
2017 2018 2019 2020
8 Notes and sources
Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %. Latin America

and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
0
-8
-16
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 10

Industrial Production, annual variation in % Industrial Production Growth, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Uruguay
Latin America 1.4 1.0 0.9 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9
Chile -1.0 2.6 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 Colombia
Mexico -0.3 0.2 0.3 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.5
Chile
Mercosur 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7
Argentina 2.5 -4.6 -3.9 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.1 Andean Com.
Brazil 2.5 1.1 0.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6
Ecuador
Uruguay -11.1 11.5 3.9 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.3
Andean Com. -0.2 3.9 1.9 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.9 Brazil
Colombia -0.5 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5
Ecuador 0.0 -0.4 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7 Latin America
Peru 0.2 6.2 0.7 3.1 3.8 4.4 5.0 Peru
Mexico
Mercosur
Argentina
6
-6 -3 0 3 6
2017 2018 2019 2020
3 Notes and sources
Note: Industrial production, real annual variation in %. Data for Chile

and Ecuador refers to manufacturing. Latin America and Mercosur
0 Sources: National statistical institutes.
-3
-6
Retail Sales, annual variation in % Retail Sales Growth, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Latin America 1.2 2.4 2.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 Colombia
Chile 2.1 3.1 2.3 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.4
Mexico -0.3 1.5 1.7 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.3
Brazil 2.1 2.3 2.5 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.0 Peru
Colombia -0.1 5.4 3.6 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0
Peru 1.6 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2
Brazil
Latin America
6 Chile
Mexico
4
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
2 Notes and sources
Note: Retail sales, real annual variation in %. Data for Chile refers to
supermarket sales and data for Peru refers to commerce sector.
Sources: National statistical institutes.
0
2017 2018 2019 2020
-2
Latin America Brazil Mexico Colombia Chile Peru

Unemployment, % of active population Unemployment, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Venezuela
Latin America 8.7 8.4 8.4 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.3
Brazil
Chile 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5
Mexico 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 Mercosur
Mercosur 11.5 11.4 11.2 10.6 10.2 9.7 9.2 Argentina
Argentina 8.4 9.2 10.2 9.9 9.4 8.9 8.4
Colombia
Brazil 12.7 12.3 11.7 10.9 10.6 10.1 9.6
Paraguay 5.2 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 Latin America
Uruguay 7.9 8.4 8.1 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 Uruguay
Venezuela 14.9 18.2 22.8 23.5 - - -
Andean Com.
Andean Com. 7.7 7.7 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.5
Colombia 9.4 9.7 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.3 Chile
Ecuador 4.6 3.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 Peru
Peru 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2
Paraguay
Ecuador
Mexico
14
0 6 12 18 24
2017 2018 2019 2020
Notes and sources

10
Note: Unemployment rate as % of active population (for details see notes
in country). Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes.
2
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Ecuador
Latin America -4.9 -4.4 -4.0 -3.7 -3.5 -3.3 -3.1
Paraguay
Chile -2.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9
Mexico -1.1 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2 Chile
Mercosur -7.2 -6.5 -5.7 -5.3 -5.0 -4.7 -4.3 Peru
Argentina -5.9 -5.2 -3.7 -2.9 -2.6 -2.5 -2.3 Mexico
Brazil -7.8 -7.1 -6.4 -6.0 -5.7 -5.4 -5.0
Andean Com.
Paraguay -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4 -1.3
Uruguay -3.5 -2.9 -3.2 -3.1 -2.9 -2.8 -2.6 Colombia
Venezuela -16.8 -17.3 -17.5 -17.3 - - - Uruguay
Andean Com. -3.8 -2.8 -2.6 -2.2 -1.9 -1.7 -1.5 Argentina
Bolivia -7.8 -7.6 -7.4 -6.6 -5.6 -4.7 -3.9 Latin America
Colombia -3.6 -3.1 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2 -2.0 -1.9
Mercosur
Ecuador -4.5 -1.2 -1.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Peru -3.0 -2.3 -2.2 -2.0 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 Brazil
Bolivia
Venezuela
0
-20 -15 -10 -5 0
Notes and sources

-3
Note: Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Argentina: Non-financial public sector.
Brazil: Public sector borrowing requirement.
Chile: Central government.
Colombia: Central government.
Ecuador: Non-financial public sector.
-6 Mexico: Non-financial public sector.
Peru: Non-financial public sector.
Venezuela: Non-financial central government.
Sources: National statistical institutes and finance ministries.
2017 2018 2019 2020
-9

Inflation, variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Venezuela 5,590,864
Latin America 6.4 8.2 6.8 5.7 5.0 4.5 3.9
Argentina
Chile 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0
Mercosur
Mexico 6.8 4.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4
Mercosur 8.1 13.3 11.0 8.5 7.1 5.9 4.6 Uruguay
Argentina 24.8 47.6 39.1 26.4 19.4 13.5 7.6 Latin America
Brazil 2.9 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 Brazil
Paraguay 4.5 3.2 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1
Paraguay
Uruguay 6.6 8.0 7.6 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.1
Mexico
Venezuela 863 0.1. mn. 5.6. mn. 1.8. mn. - - -
Andean Com. 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 Colombia
Bolivia 2.7 1.5 2.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.6 Bolivia
Colombia 4.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 Chile
Ecuador -0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.5
Andean Com.
Peru 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6
Peru
Ecuador
50 0 10 20 30 40
2017 2018 2019 2020
40
Notes and sources
Note: End-of-year variation of consumer price index in %. Latin

30 America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
20
10
0
Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Argentina
Latin America 8.97 11.74 10.52 8.84 8.11 7.34 6.53
Chile 2.50 2.75 3.04 3.43 3.61 3.83 4.06 Mercosur
Mexico 7.25 8.25 7.92 7.14 6.47 5.90 5.34 Latin America
Mercosur 11.98 17.80 15.54 12.23 10.97 9.58 8.11
Bolivia
Argentina 28.75 59.25 54.02 34.40 25.93 18.39 10.84
Brazil 7.00 6.50 6.33 6.93 7.37 7.44 7.51 Mexico
Paraguay 5.25 5.25 4.75 5.00 5.20 5.34 5.47 Brazil
Uruguay 5.56 5.30 6.30 6.20 6.18 6.17 6.16
Uruguay
Venezuela 14.77 15.00 - - - - -
Andean Com. 4.47 4.19 4.45 4.75 4.80 4.88 4.95 Ecuador
Bolivia 7.86 7.77 8.72 8.86 8.83 8.82 8.80 Paraguay
Colombia 4.75 4.25 4.47 4.82 4.67 4.61 4.54 Colombia
Ecuador 4.95 5.62 5.80 6.00 6.14 6.21 6.28
Peru 3.25 2.75 3.01 3.35 3.67 3.98 4.29 Andean Com.
Chile
Peru
60
0 20 40 60
2017 2018 2019 2020
Notes and sources

40
Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. Latin America and
Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Argentina: 7-day LELIQ rate.
Bolivia: Prime lending rate.
Brazil: SELIC rate.
Chile: Monetary policy rate.
20 Colombia: Central Bank intervention rate.
Ecuador: 91-120 days deposit rate.
Mexico: 1-day target interbank rate.
Paraguay: Monetary policy rate.
Peru: Monetary policy rate.
Uruguay: 30-day deposit rate.
0 Venezuela: 90-day average deposit rate.
Latin America Mercosur Brazil Mexico Andean Com. Argentina Sources: National central banks.

Exchange Rates vs. USD, appreciation in % Appreciation versus USD, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Chile
Latin America -0.7 -12.7 -2.3 -2.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.4
Colombia
Chile 8.8 -11.3 3.5 1.4 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0
Mexico 5.5 0.0 -2.0 -1.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 Brazil
Mercosur -4.6 -22.2 -4.0 -4.4 -2.9 -2.2 -2.1 Andean Com.
Argentina -14.8 -50.6 -25.6 -17.5 -10.4 -7.4 -6.9
Peru
Brazil -1.7 -14.7 1.6 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9
Paraguay 4.6 -6.3 -4.2 -2.3 -1.1 -1.7 -1.6 Bolivia
Uruguay 1.7 -11.1 -8.6 -5.8 -3.0 -1.7 -1.7 Mexico
Venezuela 0.0 -98.4 -100.0 -99.0 - - - Latin America
Andean Com. 1.7 -6.0 1.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
Mercosur
Bolivia 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -2.1 -1.9 -1.7 -1.6
Colombia 0.6 -8.1 2.2 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 Paraguay
Peru 3.7 -3.9 0.8 -0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 Uruguay
Argentina
Venezuela -100.0
20
-30 -20 -10 0 10
0 Notes and sources
Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus

USD in %. Positive number means currency is gaining value against
USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicative information.
-20 Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: Central banks and Thomson Reuters.
-40
2017 2018 2019 2020
-60
Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Venezuela
Latin America -1.4 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.8
Paraguay
Chile -2.1 -3.1 -2.9 -2.7 -2.6 -2.3 -2.0
Mexico -1.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -2.0 Ecuador
Mercosur -1.3 -1.7 -1.3 -1.6 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8 Uruguay
Argentina -4.9 -5.2 -2.1 -2.0 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 Brazil
Brazil -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9
Mercosur
Paraguay 3.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Uruguay 0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 Latin America
Venezuela 6.1 4.9 1.6 0.6 - - - Peru
Andean Com. -2.3 -2.8 -2.7 -2.6 -2.5 -2.3 -2.1 Mexico
Bolivia -5.0 -4.9 -5.0 -4.9 -4.3 -3.7 -3.0 Argentina
Colombia -3.3 -3.9 -4.0 -3.8 -3.6 -3.4 -3.2
Andean Com.
Ecuador -0.5 -1.3 -0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4
Peru -1.2 -1.6 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.6 -1.5 Chile
Colombia
Bolivia
0
-6 -4 -2 0 2
Notes and sources

-2
Note: Current account balance as % of GDP. Latin America and
-4
2017 2018 2019 2020
-6

Exports, annual variation in % Export Growth, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Argentina
Latin America 10.7 7.7 4.9 5.8 6.4 6.8 7.3
Chile 13.4 9.6 2.1 4.8 5.1 6.2 7.3 Bolivia
Mexico 9.5 10.1 5.9 6.2 7.0 7.5 7.9 Mexico
Mercosur 13.2 8.7 3.6 5.6 5.6 6.3 6.9 Latin America
Argentina 1.2 5.1 8.3 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4
Ecuador
Brazil 17.6 10.1 2.6 5.1 5.1 5.9 6.8
Mercosur
Paraguay 11.9 3.0 1.7 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.6
Uruguay 4.1 6.3 1.1 5.2 6.0 8.4 10.7 Peru
Venezuela 24.2 -1.0 -41.2 -3.6 - - - Andean Com.
Andean Com. 18.2 10.4 2.6 5.3 6.2 7.3 8.5 Brazil
Bolivia 15.3 9.5 6.4 7.9 8.6 9.1 9.7
Chile
Colombia 16.4 11.8 1.2 5.9 6.7 8.3 9.9
Ecuador 13.8 13.0 3.8 2.9 3.7 4.2 4.7 Paraguay
Peru 22.4 8.1 2.7 5.3 6.3 7.4 8.6 Colombia
Uruguay
Venezuela
20
2017 2018 2019 2020 -60 -40 -20 0 20
15 Notes and sources
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
10
0
Imports, annual variation in % Import Growth, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Bolivia
Latin America 9.2 10.6 4.2 6.0 6.5 6.8 7.1
Brazil
Chile 10.1 15.1 2.7 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.8
Mexico 8.6 10.4 5.8 5.9 7.1 7.5 7.9 Colombia
Mercosur 12.4 13.0 2.4 8.4 7.7 7.6 7.4 Mexico
Argentina 19.8 -2.2 -11.8 8.1 7.4 7.2 7.0 Peru
Brazil 9.6 20.2 7.4 8.6 7.7 7.6 7.6
Andean Com.
Paraguay 17.8 12.1 3.6 6.1 8.0 8.3 8.5
Uruguay 2.4 5.3 3.0 9.0 9.0 7.5 6.0 Latin America
Venezuela -26.6 23.6 -29.3 14.5 - - - Paraguay
Andean Com. 8.8 11.1 4.4 4.9 5.8 6.4 6.9 Uruguay
Bolivia 8.7 7.9 8.4 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.2
Chile
Colombia 2.3 12.1 6.0 5.8 6.4 6.8 7.2
Ecuador 22.6 15.9 -2.0 1.6 3.1 3.9 4.8 Mercosur
Peru 10.3 8.3 5.0 5.4 6.4 7.1 7.8 Ecuador

Argentina
Venezuela
30
-30 -20 -10 0 10
2017 2018 2019 2020
Notes and sources

15
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports. Latin
America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
-15

International Reserves, months of imports International Reserves, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Brazil
Latin America 10.1 9.3 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.0
Chile 7.6 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 Uruguay
Mexico 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 Mercosur
Mercosur 22.9 20.7 20.7 19.4 18.6 17.7 17.0 Peru
Argentina 9.9 12.1 13.8 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.2
Argentina
Brazil 29.8 24.8 23.6 21.9 20.8 19.7 18.6
Paraguay 8.4 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.7 7.7 7.6 Andean Com.
Uruguay 22.2 20.5 21.3 20.1 19.0 18.5 18.2 Colombia
Venezuela 9.6 7.1 8.1 8.6 - - - Latin America
Andean Com. 13.1 11.4 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.1 10.9
Venezuela
Bolivia 11.4 8.9 8.0 7.1 6.4 5.8 5.2
Bolivia
Colombia 12.9 11.7 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.3 9.8
Ecuador 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Paraguay
Peru 19.8 17.3 17.5 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.4 Chile
Mexico
Ecuador
30
0 5 10 15 20 25
2017 2018 2019 2020
Notes and sources

20
Note: International reserves as months of imports. Latin America and
Sources: Central banks.
10
0
External Debt, % of GDP External Debt, 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Venezuela
Latin America 31.8 34.5 36.0 35.9 35.8 35.4 35.0
Chile Uruguay
65.2 61.6 63.7 62.5 59.9 58.4 56.9
Mexico 37.7 36.5 37.8 38.8 39.6 39.7 39.7 Chile
Mercosur 21.7 26.2 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.6 Argentina
Argentina 36.1 51.6 61.6 61.5 60.1 57.6 56.9 Paraguay
Brazil 15.5 17.2 17.5 17.2 17.2 17.1 17.0
Ecuador
Paraguay 41.3 41.5 43.0 42.6 41.9 40.9 39.9
Uruguay 68.4 71.7 74.2 75.6 73.2 72.1 70.4 Colombia
Venezuela 78.7 86.0 156.5 140.4 - - - Andean Com.
Andean Com. 38.0 38.2 38.9 38.5 37.9 37.0 36.1 Mexico
Bolivia 34.6 33.0 35.2 35.5 35.7 35.3 34.9
Latin America
Colombia 40.0 40.0 41.8 41.1 40.6 39.7 38.7
Ecuador 38.3 40.6 42.7 42.8 43.2 42.7 41.9 Bolivia
Peru 35.5 35.4 33.9 33.5 32.2 31.2 30.2 Peru
Mercosur
Brazil
70
0 50 100 150 200
2017 2018 2019 2020
Notes and sources

50
Note: External debt as % of GDP. Latin America and Mercosur
Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and finance
ministries.
30
10

Major Risk Indicators | EMBI Spreads and Sovereign Ratings

Sovereign Spreads (bps) Moody's S&P Fitch Ratings
May April Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Ratings Outlook
Argentina 985 950 B2 Stable B Stable B Negative
Bolivia - - Ba3 Stable BB- Stable BB- Stable
Brazil 274 252 Ba2 Stable BB- Stable BB- Stable
Chile 132 141 A1 Stable A+ Stable A Stable
Colombia 210 177 Baa2 Stable BBB- Stable BBB Negative
Ecuador 619 560 B3 Negative B- Stable B- Negative
Mexico 227 195 A3 Negative BBB+ Negative BBB Stabe
Paraguay - - Ba1 Stable BB Stable BB+ Stable
Peru 122 102 A3 Stable BBB+ Stable BBB+ Stable
Uruguay 122 171 Baa2 Stable BBB Stable BBB- Negative
Venezuela 5,578 5,553 C Stable SD N.M. RD -
Overview | Spread in bps Argentina Brazil
Venezuela 2,000 800

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
Argentina
Argentina Brazil
Ecuador
1,500 600
EMBI + Latin
Brazil
1,000 400
Mexico
Colombia
Uruguay 500 200
Chile
Peru
0 0
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Chile Colombia Mexico
800 800 800

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
600 600 600
400 400 400
200 200 200
0 0 0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Peru Uruguay Venezuela
800 1,000 8,000

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
EMBI + Latin
Uruguay Venezuela
Peru
800
600 6,000
600
400 4,000
400
200 2,000
200
0 0 0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Major Stock Markets | Performance in %
MSCI Price Indices (USD) National Benchmark Stock Indices (local currencies)
May 2019
Last Month Last 3 Months Last 12 Months YTD Last Month Last 3 Months Last 12 Months YTD
Argentina 11.8 -6.2 -29.9 0.4 14.8 -1.6 18.9 12.1
Brazil 1.5 -3.5 16.2 7.6 0.7 1.5 26.4 10.4
Chile -9.8 -16.1 -22.7 -8.7 -3.7 -5.4 -8.2 -2.3
Colombia -9.2 -9.5 -14.6 8.5 -5.7 -1.4 -2.0 8.2
Mexico -7.6 -2.7 -4.7 2.1 -4.1 -0.2 -4.3 2.7
Peru -6.5 -7.6 -5.3 1.1 -4.7 -3.4 -4.3 3.0
Latin America -2.4 -4.9 4.8 4.6 - - - -
Emerging Markets -7.5 -5.0 -10.9 3.3 - - - -
World -6.2 -2.3 -3.3 8.0 - - - -
Overview | month-on-month var. in % Argentina Brazil
Argentina 300 150

Latin America Latin America
Brazil
Argentina Brazil
Latin America
200 100
World
Peru
Emerging Markets
100 50
Mexico
Colombia
Chile
0 0
-10 0 10 20 Jan-12 Jul-13 Jan-15 Jul-16 Jan-18 Jan-12 Jul-13 Jan-15 Jul-16 Jan-18
150 200 200

Latin America Latin America Latin America
150 150
100
100 100
50
50 50
0 0 0
Jan-12 Jul-13 Jan-15 Jul-16 Jan-18 Jan-12 Jul-13 Jan-15 Jul-16 Jan-18 Jan-12 Jul-13 Jan-15 Jul-16 Jan-18
Peru
200
Latin America
Peru
150
100
50
0
Jan-12 Jul-13 Jan-15 Jul-16 Jan-18

Cross Exchange Rate Forecasts | Year end
United States Euro Area

U.S. Dollar (USD) 2017 2018 2019 2020 Euro (EUR) 2017 2018 2019 2020
United States - - - - United States 1.13 1.18 1.14 1.19
Japan 113 110 109 107 Japan 127 129 124 127
Euro Area 0.89 0.85 0.88 0.84 Euro Area - - - -
Argentina 18.60 37.66 50.61 61.36 Argentina 21.0 44.5 57.5 72.8
Brazil 3.31 3.88 3.82 3.86 Brazil 3.74 4.58 4.34 4.58
Chile 615 694 670 661 Chile 695 820 761 784
Colombia 2,985 3,248 3,178 3,166 Colombia 3,372 3,835 3,610 3,756
Mexico 19.65 19.65 20.04 20.31 Mexico 22.2 23.2 22.8 24.1
Peru 3.24 3.37 3.34 3.36 Peru 3.66 3.98 3.80 3.99
Venezuela 10.00 638.20 53,872,778 5.5. bn. Venezuela 11.3 753.7 61,192,515 6.5. bn.
Japan Argentina
Japanese Yen (JPY,100) 2017 2018 2019 2020 Argentine Peso (ARS) 2017 2018 2019 2020
United States 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.93 United States 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.02
Japan - - - - Japan 6.06 2.91 2.15 1.75
Euro Area 0.79 0.77 0.81 0.79 Euro Area 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.01
Argentina 16.5 34.4 46.5 57.2 Argentina - - - -
Brazil 2.94 3.54 3.51 3.60 Brazil 0.18 0.10 0.08 0.06
Chile 546 633 616 617 Chile 33.1 18.4 13.2 10.8
Colombia 2,649 2,964 2,922 2,953 Colombia 160 86 63 52
Mexico 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 Mexico 1.06 0.52 0.40 0.33
Peru 2.87 3.07 3.07 3.14 Peru 0.17 0.09 0.07 0.05
Venezuela 8.9 582.4 49,523,141 5.1. bn. Venezuela 0.54 16.94 1 mn. 90 mn.
Brazil Chile
Brazilian Real (BRL) 2017 2018 2019 2020 Chilean Peso (CLP, 100) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Japan 34.0 28.2 28.5 27.8 Japan 18.3 15.8 16.2 16.2
Brazil - - - - Brazil 0.54 0.56 0.57 0.58
Chile 186 179 175 171 Chile - - - -
Colombia 901 837 832 820 Colombia 485 468 474 479
Mexico 5.93 5.06 5.24 5.26 Mexico 3.19 2.83 2.99 3.07
Peru 0.98 0.87 0.87 0.87 Peru 0.53 0.49 0.50 0.51
Venezuela 3.02 164.43 14,099,763 1.4. bn. Venezuela 1.62 91.96 8,037,022 0.8. bn.
Colombia Mexico
Colombian Peso (COP, 1000) 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mexican Peso (MXN) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Japan 37.8 33.7 34.2 33.9 Japan 5.73 5.58 5.43 5.28
Brazil 1.11 1.20 1.20 1.22 Brazil 0.17 0.20 0.19 0.19
Chile 206 214 211 209 Chile 31.3 35.3 33.4 32.5
Colombia - - - - Colombia 152 165 159 156
Mexico 6.59 6.05 6.31 6.42 Mexico - - - -
Peru 1.08 1.04 1.05 1.06 Peru 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17
Venezuela 3.35 197 16,951,173 1.7. bn. Venezuela 0.51 32.5 2,688,309 270,466,681
Peru Venezuela
Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN) 2017 2018 2019 2020 Venezuelan Bolívar (VES) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Japan 34.8 32.5 32.5 31.9 Japan 11.3 0.17 0.00 0.00
Brazil 1.02 1.15 1.14 1.15 Brazil 0.33 0.01 0.00 0.00
Chile 190 206 200 197 Chile 61.5 1.09 0.00 0.00
Colombia 922 964 951 942 Colombia 298 5.09 0.00 0.00
Mexico 6.07 5.83 5.99 6.04 Mexico 1.97 0.03 0.00 0.00
Peru - - - - Peru 0.32 0.01 0.00 0.00
Venezuela 3.09 189.5 16,114,190 1.6. bn. Venezuela - - - -

FOCUSECONOMICS
Economic Release Calendar

Calendar June 2019
Date Country Event

11 June Mexico April Industrial Production
11 June Uruguay April Industrial Production (**)
12 June Brazil April Retail Sales
13 June Argentina May Consumer Prices
13 June Ecuador April Economic Activity (**)
13 June Peru Central Bank Meeting
15 June Brazil April Economic Activity (**)
15 June Peru April Economic Activity
18 June Uruguay Q1 2019 National Accounts (**)
19 June Argentina Q1 2019 National Accounts (*)
19 June Brazil Central Bank Meeting
19 June Colombia May Consumer Confidence
21 June Mexico Q1 2019 National Accounts (by Type)
22 June Argentina June Consumer Confidence (**)
24 June Brazil May Balance of Payments
24 June Mexico April Economic Activity (IGAE)
25 June Brazil June Consumer Confidence (**)
26 June Argentina April Economic Activity
26 June Argentina May Merchandise Trade
27 June Mexico May Merchandise Trade
28 June Colombia Central Bank Meeting
29 June Brazil June Business Confidence (**)
1 July Brazil June IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI
1 July Chile June Copper Prices
1 July Chile June Business Confidence
1 July Mexico May Remittances (**)
1 July Mexico June IMEF Manufacturing PMI
1 July Mexico June IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI
1 July Peru June Consumer Prices
2 July Brazil May Industrial Production
2 July Colombia June Davivienda Manufacturing PMI
3 July Colombia May Merchandise Exports
3 July Uruguay Central Bank Meeting (**)
3 July Uruguay June Consumer Prices (**)
4 July Argentina May Industrial Production
4 July Chile June Consumer Confidence
4 July Ecuador June Consumer Prices (**)
4 July Mexico June Consumer Confidence
4 July Peru June Business Confidence
4 July Peru May Merchandise Trade
5 July Chile May Economic Activity
5 July Colombia June Consumer Prices
9 July Mexico June Consumer Prices
(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

FOCUSECONOMICS Argentina June 2019
Argentina
Outlook stable
Argentina
• Although still bleak, the economic panorama seems to be brightening

somewhat. Activity plunged throughout Q1, as did industrial production.
Runaway inflation and sky-high interest rates, together with plunging
real retail sales, suggest consumer spending and investment activity
remained in the doldrums. However, a weaker peso and growing
agricultural production are supporting the ongoing external adjustment.
Moreover, the month-on-month increase in consumer prices moderated
in April after three months of acceleration, and April’s primary fiscal
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
surplus followed Q1’s positive fiscal outturn. As October’s elections
2015-17 2018-20 2021-23
Population (million): 43.6 45.1 46.6
approach, the political landscape is heating up. In mid-May, ex-President
GDP (USD bn): 619 507 581 Cristina Fernández de Kirchner announced she will run for vice-president
GDP per capita (USD): 14,205 11,250 12,480
GDP growth (%): 1.1 -0.6 2.7
on a ticket headed by her former cabinet chief Alberto Fernández. Given
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.2 -3.9 -2.5 the presidential candidate’s moderate credentials, the risk of a return to
Public Debt (% of GDP): 54.3 83.3 79.8
radically interventionist policies seems less of a threat.
Inflation (%): 31.7 37.3 15.8
Current Account (% of GDP): -3.4 -3.1 -1.8
External Debt (% of GDP) 31.5 58.2 58.2 • The economy will contract this year, as sky-high interest rates, runaway
inflation and nosediving public investment weigh on domestic demand.
Massimo Bassetti
Nevertheless, external accounts should improve markedly, thanks to
Economist
higher agricultural output and a weaker peso. The uncertain outcome
of this October’s elections and possible financial turbulence cloud the
outlook. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
contracting 1.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate,
6 4 before expanding 2.1% in 2020.
3
• Inflation climbed to 55.8% in April (March: 54.7%), as persistent pass-
2
0 through pressures from a weaker peso continued to materialize.
-3
Following a peak in H1, inflation should gradually fall in H2, thanks to the
0
combined impact of waning FX pass-through, slower food inflation and
-6
2019 2020
tight financial conditions. FocusEconomics panelists expect inflation to
-9 -2 end 2019 at 39.1% and 2020 at 26.4%.
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020

2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. • The latest report shows that the Central Bank (BCRA) met its 0% target
for monetary base growth in May for the eighth consecutive month. In
October, the Central Bank moved to a monetary rule which sets a 0%
monthly growth for the monetary base. The BCRA will keep tight albeit
softening monetary conditions this year. FocusEconomics analysts
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
60 40
see the LELIQ rate ending 2019 at 54.02%, thanks to tight monetary
Argentina
Latin America
2019 2020 conditions, and 2020 at 34.40%.
30
40
• On 7 June, the ARS traded at 44.86 per USD, a 0.9% appreciation from
20
the same day in May. Although downbeat data on economic activity,
20 together with exorbitant inflation put some downward pressure on the
10
local currency, the peso was pushed up by the announcement of the
0 0
Fernández-Fernández ticket and dovish comments from Fed officials.
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
Persistent sky-high inflation will likely weigh on the peso this year, and
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2019 and 2020
variation in %, Q1 2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months.
analysts see the ARS ending at 50.61 per USD and 61.36 per USD in
2019 and 2020, respectively.

REAL SECTOR | Contraction in economic activity sharpens in March,

points to significant fall in Q1
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de
Actividad Económica) dived 6.8% in annual terms in March, a sharper drop
Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in %
2.0 6.0
than the 4.7% fall recorded in February. The reading ends a short-lived three-
month streak of moderating economic contractions.
1.0 3.0
March’s deterioration came mainly on the back of sharper contractions in

0.0 0.0 the industrial, construction, and wholesale and retail sales sectors. The only
% %
bright spot was the agricultural sector, whose production gained considerable
-1.0 -3.0
traction in the month.
-2.0 -6.0
Month-on-month (left scale) A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity dropped 1.3%
Year-on-year (right scale)
-3.0 -9.0
in seasonally-adjusted terms in March, contrasting February’s revised 0.1%
Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19
uptick (previously reported: +0.2% month-on-month). Meanwhile, the annual
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted EMAE (Estimador
Mensual de Actividad Económica) and annual average growth rate in %. average variation in economic activity worsened from a 4.1% contraction in
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Census of Argentina (INDEC) and
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast calculations.
February to a 4.8% fall in March.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy in recession

this year, contracting 1.3%, unchanged from the previous month’s forecast.
Analysts see the economy rebounding in 2020 and growing 2.1%.
Industrial Production | variation in % REAL SECTOR | Contraction in industrial production eases in April
8 Industrial production fell 8.8% over the same month of last year in April,
according to data released by the National Statistical Institute (INDEC) on 5
June. The reading marked a softer contraction than March’s revised 13.9%
0 year-on-year plunge (previously reported: -13.4% year-on-year).
%
April’s result reflected softer contractions across the board. That said, the
-8 categories of automotive and other transport equipment; furniture and other
Year-on-Year manufacturing industries; and other equipment, instruments and apparatus,
Average
all contracted by over 20%. A marked fall in domestic demand remained the
-16
Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19
main culprit of the negative performance in the industrial sector.
Note: Year-on-year changes of industrial production in % and annual average
growth rate in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and LatinFocus
Meanwhile, the annual average variation in industrial output worsened to
Consensus Forecast calculations. minus 9.5% in April, from minus 8.4% in March.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect that

industrial production will contract 3.9% in 2019, which is down 0.5 percentage
points from last month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel expects industrial output
to rise 2.4%.
Consumer Confidence
55
OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence at over one-year high in May, but
50 remains entrenched in pessimistic terrain
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index rose
45 to 36.5 points in May from 34.4 points in April, marking the best result in 13
months. Therefore, the index moved slightly closer to the 50-point threshold
40
that separates pessimism from optimism among consumers, below which it
35
has been for over a year.
30 May’s print reflected an improvement in all three sub-components of the index.

May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19
Consumers’ assessments of their personal finances improved slightly, while
Note: Monthly consumer confidence index. Values above 50 indicate optimistic
consumer sentiment while values below 50 indicate pessimistic sentiment.
consumers’ willingness to purchase big-ticket household items strengthened
Source: Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT). notably, although it remained at abysmal levels. Lastly, their outlook on the
broader short-term macroeconomic situation improved markedly.

Panelists surveyed for the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see private

consumption dropping 3.5% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points
from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panelists expect private consumption to
increase 2.2%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation continues to increase in April

National consumer prices rose 3.4% over the previous month in April, coming
in below March’s 4.7% month-on-month jump and ending a three-month
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
streak of intensifying price pressures, according to the National Statistical
8.0 60
Month-on-month (left scale)

Institute (INDEC).
6.0 50
April’s deceleration was prompted by lower increases in prices for food and
% %
non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and education.
4.0 40 The strongest price rises were recorded for clothing and footwear, and housing
maintenance and furbishing.
2.0 30
Meanwhile, inflation rose from March’s 54.7% to a new multi-year high of

0.0 20
55.8% in April, while annual average inflation increased from 40.4% in March
to 42.9% in the fourth month of the year.
Note: Annual and monthly var. of national consumer price index in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
Inflation is expected to be 39.1% at the end of 2019, which is up 0.9 percentage
points from last month’s forecast. Inflation is projected to fall to 26.4% by the
end of 2020.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Robust trade surplus recorded in April on

continued plunge in imports
Exports rebounded, albeit timidly, and grew 1.7% in year-on-year terms in
April, contrasting March’s 5.0% contraction. April’s increase was the result
of rising exported quantities, while prices declined notably. It came on the
back of a jump in exports of primary products, and of a healthy expansion
in foreign sales of fuels and energy products. On the other hand, exports
Merchandise Trade of manufactured products of industrial origin, and of manufactured products
12 30 of agricultural origin, continued to fall. In terms of export markets, overseas
Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)
Exports (yoy, right scale) sales to China, Peru and Vietnam rose considerably and were only partially
Imports (yoy, right scale)
6 15 counterbalanced by reduced exports to Brazil, the U.S. and Chile.
%
0 0
Imports nosedived 31.6% annually in April, a slightly softer fall than March’s
33.7% plunge. Abysmal falls in the imports of passenger motor vehicles,
capital and consumption goods, led April’s contraction.
-6 -15
Meanwhile, the trade balance surplus narrowed marginally from a USD

-12 -30
Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 1.2 billion surplus in March to a USD 1.1 billion surplus in April, the eighth
consecutive surplus after 20 months in the red (April 2018: USD 0.9 billion
Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the
12-month sum of exports and imports in %. deficit). The 12-month rolling trade balance improved from a USD 0.6 billion
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics
calculations. surplus in March to a USD 2.6 billion surplus in April (April 2018: USD 10.3
billion shortfall), marking the second surplus since April 2017.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect exports

to expand 8.3% in 2019 and imports to decrease 11.8%, pushing the trade
balance to a USD 9.0 billion surplus. For 2020, the panel expects exports
to increase 6.7% and imports to grow 8.1%, with a trade surplus of USD 8.9
billion.

Economic Indicators | 2014 - 2023
Annual Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real Sector
Population (million) 42.7 43.1 43.6 44.1 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.1 46.6 47.1
GDP per capita (USD) 13,133 15,110 12,778 14,727 12,098 10,546 11,105 11,787 12,606 13,045
GDP (USD bn) 560 652 557 649 539 475 506 543 587 614
GDP (ARS bn) 4,579 5,955 8,228 10,645 14,567 21,492 28,289 35,247 41,812 47,105
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 36.8 30.0 38.2 29.4 36.8 47.5 31.6 24.6 18.6 12.7
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -2.5 2.7 -2.1 2.7 -2.5 -1.3 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.9
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -3.9 4.2 -1.6 6.0 -3.7 -4.2 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -4.4 3.7 -0.8 4.0 -2.4 -3.5 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.9 6.9 -0.5 2.7 -3.3 -3.2 -0.4 0.3 0.8 1.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -6.8 3.5 -5.8 12.2 -5.8 -10.1 6.6 6.0 5.2 4.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -7.0 -2.8 5.3 1.7 0.0 8.8 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -11.5 4.7 5.8 15.4 -5.1 -8.8 7.0 5.6 4.9 4.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -2.5 0.1 -4.5 2.5 -4.6 -3.9 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.3 7.1 8.4 8.4 9.2 10.2 9.9 9.4 8.9 8.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -3.9 -5.9 -5.9 -5.2 -3.7 -2.9 -2.6 -2.5 -2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 44.7 52.6 53.3 57.1 86.2 82.8 81.0 80.3 79.8 79.4
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 28.9 28.2 30.4 26.0 22.8 13.2 22.1 18.4 15.5 12.6
Monetary Base (ann. var. %) 22.6 34.9 31.7 21.8 40.7 7.5 21.8 19.8 16.5 13.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 38.0 26.9 41.0 24.8 47.6 39.1 26.4 19.4 13.5 7.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 38.0 26.7 41.2 27.7 34.3 48.9 29.5 22.1 15.9 9.7
7-Day LELIQ Rate (%, eop) 26.86 33.00 24.75 28.75 59.25 54.02 34.40 25.93 18.39 10.84
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop) 20.38 27.25 19.88 23.25 49.50 42.82 30.07 23.29 16.94 10.59
Stock Market (ann. var. of MERVAL %) 59.1 36.1 44.9 77.7 0.8 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 8.46 12.94 15.86 18.60 37.66 50.61 61.36 68.50 73.97 79.43
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 8.12 9.27 14.77 16.56 28.08 45.23 55.92 64.93 71.23 76.70
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -2.7 -2.7 -4.9 -5.2 -2.1 -2.0 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -9.2 -17.6 -15.1 -31.6 -28.0 -9.9 -10.3 -10.5 -10.6 -10.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 2.7 -3.4 2.1 -8.3 -3.8 9.0 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.3
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 68.4 56.8 57.9 58.6 61.6 66.8 71.2 75.9 80.9 86.0
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 65.7 60.2 55.9 66.9 65.4 57.7 62.4 67.0 71.8 76.8
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -9.9 -17.0 2.0 1.2 5.1 8.3 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -11.7 -8.4 -7.2 19.8 -2.2 -11.8 8.1 7.4 7.2 7.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 5.1 11.8 3.3 11.9 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 31.4 25.6 39.3 55.1 65.8 66.4 70.2 74.9 79.5 84.2
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.7 5.1 8.4 9.9 12.1 13.8 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.2
External Debt (USD bn) 159 167 181 235 278 293 311 326 338 350
External Debt (% of GDP) 28.3 25.7 32.6 36.1 51.6 61.6 61.5 60.1 57.6 56.9
Quarterly Data Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -3.7 -6.2 -5.9 -0.8 -0.4 1.6 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.2
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) -0.5 -1.2 - - - - - - - -
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -5.0 -14.8 -10.6 -5.2 -2.6 2.2 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -5.4 -9.5 -8.2 -5.0 -1.8 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -4.2 -5.1 -4.5 -3.5 -2.2 -2.3 -0.9 -0.3 -0.3 0.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -11.7 -25.0 -20.6 -15.5 -6.3 2.7 6.7 6.2 6.6 6.8
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -8.4 -12.3 -11.1 -5.1 -1.7 2.0 3.1 2.4 2.3 1.9
7-Day LELIQ Rate (%, eop) 65.00 59.25 68.16 68.55 64.87 54.02 49.06 45.78 39.56 34.40
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop) 43.31 49.50 45.69 51.48 48.37 42.82 38.08 35.76 33.29 30.07
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 31.91 37.11 39.01 44.55 47.47 49.91 51.82 54.34 57.34 60.19
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.6 2.6 2.0 2.9 1.9 2.4 1.7 3.4 2.0 2.1
Monthly Data Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19
Economic Activity (EMAE, ann. var. %) -1.9 -6.2 -4.3 -7.3 -7.0 -5.7 -4.7 -6.8 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -6.1 -12.6 -8.4 -13.8 -14.8 -11.1 -8.3 -13.9 -8.8 -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 36.3 33.7 32.6 32.1 36.0 33.1 36.0 34.8 34.4 36.5
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 3.9 6.5 5.4 3.2 2.6 2.9 3.8 4.7 3.4 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 34.4 40.5 45.9 48.5 47.6 49.3 51.3 54.7 55.8 -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.1 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.1 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -1.6 -4.8 1.4 14.6 15.4 -4.7 3.7 -5.0 1.7 -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -0.1 -21.2 -18.2 -29.2 -27.1 -26.5 -22.9 -33.7 -31.6 -

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
1 | Real GDP | 2000-2023 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 16-Q4 20 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
12 5 Individual Forecasts 2019 2020

ABECEB -1.7 3.0
Analytica Consultora -2.5 -
6 Banco Bradesco -1.5 2.5
0 Banco de Galicia -1.5 2.0
Banco Supervielle -1.1 2.5
0 Barclays Capital -0.7 2.2
BBVA Banco Francés -1.2 2.5
-5 BTG Pactual -0.5 2.5
-6 C&T Asesores -1.0 2.5
Argentina Argentina
Capital Economics -2.0 2.0
Latin America Latin America Citigroup Global Mkts 0.0 3.0
World World
-12 -10 Credit Agricole 0.1 2.2
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Credit Suisse -0.8 2.5
DEF -1.2 1.9
3 | GDP 2019 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts DekaBank -1.2 2.1
DuckerFrontier -1.7 2.2
6 6 Eco Go -2.0 -0.5
Ecolatina -1.7 2.0
Econométrica -1.2 2.5
3 Econviews -1.8 2.5
3 EIU -0.9 3.0
Elypsis -1.4 2.0
0 Euromonitor Int. -0.4 1.4
FIEL -1.5 2.1
0 Fitch Solutions -1.3 2.5
-3
Maximum Maximum Fundación Capital -1.6 1.8
Consensus Consensus FyEConsult -1.1 -0.1
Minimum Minimum
Gabriel Rubinstein y Asoc. -0.5 2.4
-6 -3 Goldman Sachs -1.2 2.5
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
HSBC -1.5 2.5
Invecq Consulting -1.0 2.5
5 | GDP 2019 | Panelist Distribution Itaú BBA -1.2 3.0
JPMorgan -1.2 2.5
80% Julius Baer -1.5 2.0
Kiel Institute -2.0 1.8
LCG -2.2 2.2
60% M&F Consultora -1.2 2.3
Moody's Analytics -1.8 2.7
OJF & Asociados 0.5 2.5
40%
Oxford Economics -1.5 2.5
Société Générale -3.5 -0.6
Standard Chartered -1.0 2.5
20%
UBS -2.0 1.8
UIA - CEU -1.7 -
Summary
0%
<-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 >2.0 Minimum -3.5 -0.6
Maximum 0.5 3.0
Median -1.2 2.4
Consensus -1.3 2.1
History
30 days ago -1.3 2.2
60 days ago -1.1 2.3
90 days ago -1.1 2.5
Additional Forecasts
World Bank (Apr. 2019) -1.3 2.9
OECD (May 2019) -1.8 2.1
Notes and sources
IMF (Apr. 2019) -1.2 2.2
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America ergional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
(INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2019 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
20
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020
ABECEB -2.8 2.4 -11.5 10.0
10
Analytica Consultora -5.6 - -15.5 -
Banco de Galicia -4.9 1.8 -10.6 5.5
Barclays Capital - - -8.6 8.7
0
BBVA Banco Francés -2.9 3.2 -12.3 6.1
BTG Pactual -2.2 - -15.0 -
C&T Asesores -2.5 2.0 -3.4 5.7
-10
Citigroup Global Mkts -2.6 3.1 - -
Credit Suisse -1.5 2.5 -10.0 5.0 Argentina
DEF -4.7 0.9 -15.3 7.2 Latin America

-20
DuckerFrontier -3.0 3.5 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Eco Go -3.5 -1.5 -15.0 0.0
Ecolatina -3.1 2.2 -10.0 7.3
Econométrica -6.8 1.7 -20.4 13.9 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Econviews -5.2 2.5 -10.5 12.0
EIU -3.2 3.7 -3.9 6.3 4
Elypsis -7.6 2.1 -4.6 3.0

Euromonitor Int. -2.4 1.8 - -
FIEL -7.3 4.0 -9.0 11.3 2
Fitch Solutions -2.3 2.6 -3.2 6.0
Fundación Capital -3.4 2.1 -10.8 7.4
FyEConsult -2.0 -0.2 -19.2 -0.3 0
Goldman Sachs -3.1 2.2 -8.2 2.5
HSBC -1.9 4.2 -3.0 4.5
Invecq Consulting -2.0 2.7 -10.0 10.0 -2
LCG -2.3 2.0 -9.3 6.6 2019 2020
Moody's Analytics -3.8 2.8 -8.4 11.7
OJF & Asociados -0.2 2.0 -3.2 5.0 -4
Oxford Economics -4.5 2.5 -15.6 7.4 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
Société Générale -4.4 1.3 - -

UBS -2.1 1.7 -5.8 1.9
8 | Investment | variation in %
Summary
Minimum -7.6 -1.5 -20.4 -0.3 40
Maximum -0.2 4.2 -3.0 13.9
Median -3.0 2.2 -10.0 6.3
Consensus -3.5 2.2 -10.1 6.6
20
History
30 days ago -3.1 2.2 -9.1 6.4
60 days ago -3.0 2.3 -7.7 6.2
0
90 days ago -2.5 2.5 -6.9 6.4
-20
Argentina
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts
10
Notes and sources -5
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas -10
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
2019 2020
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. -15
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Real Sector | Additional Forecasts
10 | Industry | variation in % Industry, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance

Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance
18
variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
12 ABECEB -5.0 2.7 10.3 8.4 -3.8 -
Banco de Galicia -4.2 - 9.5 9.4 -3.3 -
6 Banco Supervielle - - 9.9 10.0 -4.5 -3.9
Barclays Capital - - - - -4.1 -3.3
BBVA Banco Francés - - 10.7 8.5 -3.8 -2.5
0
BTG Pactual - - - - -3.2 -
C&T Asesores - - 9.1 8.9 -4.3 -3.1
-6 Capital Economics - - 10.0 11.0 -3.5 -3.0
Citigroup Global Mkts - - - - -3.7 -2.7
Credit Suisse - - - - -3.1 -2.0
-12
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 DEF -4.5 3.0 11.3 11.4 -3.4 -2.5
DekaBank - - - - -3.2 -2.2
DuckerFrontier -2.2 2.2 10.3 9.5 - -
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts Eco Go - - 11.1 13.0 -4.3 -3.1
Ecolatina - - 11.5 11.3 -4.3 -3.5
4
Econométrica -5.0 3.0 - - -3.7 -3.0
Econviews - - 10.2 10.4 -3.1 -2.1
EIU - - 9.4 8.9 -3.2 -2.2
2 Elypsis - - 10.2 9.4 - -
Euromonitor Int. -2.8 0.7 - - - -
FIEL - - 9.7 9.5 -3.8 -2.5
0 Fitch Solutions -5.4 4.1 - - -2.9 -2.8
Fundación Capital -3.0 1.5 9.9 9.5 -4.2 -3.1
FyEConsult - - 11.3 11.5 -4.6 -3.7
-2 Gabriel Rubinstein y Asoc. - - - - -4.0 -3.0
Goldman Sachs - - 9.2 9.0 -4.0 -3.2
2019 2020
HSBC -2.5 2.6 - - -3.5 -2.6
-4 Invecq Consulting -3.0 2.0 10.8 10.0 -3.3 -2.3
Itaú BBA - - 10.0 9.0 -3.8 -3.3
JPMorgan - - - - -3.5 -2.8
LCG -5.6 2.0 9.7 9.0 -4.1 -3.5
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
M&F Consultora - - - - -3.7 -2.9
25
Moody's Analytics -3.8 2.8 10.2 9.8 - -
Argentina OJF & Asociados - - 10.0 9.8 -3.6 -3.1
Latin America Oxford Economics -5.5 2.6 10.1 10.0 -3.4 -3.2
20
Société Générale - - 10.1 10.8 -3.9 -2.8
UBS - - 10.6 10.0 -3.6 -2.4
UIA - CEU -2.0 - - - - -
Summary
15
Minimum -5.6 0.7 9.1 8.4 -4.6 -3.9
Maximum -2.0 4.1 11.5 13.0 -2.9 -2.0
Median -4.0 2.6 10.1 9.8 -3.7 -3.0
10
Consensus -3.9 2.4 10.2 9.9 -3.7 -2.9
History
30 days ago -3.4 2.6 10.0 9.8 -3.6 -2.8
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 60 days ago -2.2 2.4 10.2 9.9 -3.5 -2.8
90 days ago -2.1 2.5 9.9 9.5 -3.5 -2.8
13 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela.
-5 All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos) and the
Ministry of Economy (MECON, Ministerio de Economía y Producción). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
Argentina 10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INDEC.
Latin America 11 Industrial production, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-10 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INDEC.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: MECON.

Monetary Sector | Inflation
Consumer Prices 14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2023 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices 60
(ann. var. in %, eop) (ann. var. in %, aop) Argentina
Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020 Latin America
45
ABECEB 40.0 25.0 49.1 31.6
Analytica Consultora 42.9 33.3 50.3 35.2
Banco de Galicia 40.0 23.0 49.6 28.6 30
Banco Supervielle 36.9 26.1 48.4 28.9
Barclays Capital 39.0 25.0 49.0 27.9 15
BBVA Banco Francés 33.0 20.0 44.9 23.3
BTG Pactual 40.0 - 50.4 -
C&T Asesores 36.9 22.8 - - 0
Capital Economics - - 47.0 27.0
Citigroup Global Mkts 36.0 26.0 47.6 28.3 -15
Credit Agricole 28.0 21.0 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Credit Suisse 35.0 25.0 47.7 28.1
DEF 41.5 29.3 49.8 33.7
DekaBank - - 46.1 22.9 15 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in %
DuckerFrontier - - 50.1 25.5
60
Eco Go 45.0 37.5 50.7 41.3 Argentina
Ecolatina 40.1 30.7 50.2 33.5 Latin America
Econométrica 46.5 26.8 53.2 32.5
Econviews 43.5 35.0 50.5 37.4
40
EIU 33.0 19.9 46.1 22.9
Elypsis 40.7 31.9 49.7 33.5
Euromonitor Int. - - 43.5 24.7
FIEL 40.2 25.2 49.7 30.2
20
Fitch Solutions 41.9 25.0 - -
Fundación Capital 40.7 27.8 - -
FyEConsult 46.0 35.0 51.8 38.9
Gabriel Rubinstein y Asoc. 39.0 20.0 - -
Goldman Sachs 36.9 20.3 48.8 26.0 0
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
HSBC 40.0 25.0 48.1 29.4
Invecq Consulting 39.0 28.0 50.0 30.0
Itaú BBA 40.0 30.0 - -
16 | Inflation 2019 | evolution of fcst
JPMorgan 38.4 25.2 50.3 -
Julius Baer - - 50.0 23.0 50
LCG 40.4 30.0 49.8 33.6 Maximum
M&F Consultora 39.1 28.0 49.2 29.9 40
Consensus
Moody's Analytics 32.5 22.7 44.8 25.8 Minimum
OJF & Asociados 41.4 22.4 49.5 29.2

Oxford Economics 37.6 24.9 49.3 27.5 30
Standard Chartered - - 46.0 26.0
UBS 38.0 22.5 49.8 27.0 20
Summary
Minimum 28.0 19.9 43.5 22.9
10
Maximum 46.5 37.5 53.2 41.3
Median 40.0 25.2 49.5 28.7
Consensus 39.1 26.4 48.9 29.5 0
History Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
30 days ago 38.2 25.5 47.9 28.4
60 days ago 34.3 23.3 45.1 25.9
90 days ago 30.7 20.8 42.1 23.6 17 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
Additional Forecasts 40
IMF (Apr. 2019) 30.5 21.2 - -
Maximum
Consensus
Notes and sources
30 Minimum
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate
excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional
de Estadísticas y Censos) and from the government of the autonomous city of Buenos Aires (Gobierno de la
20
ciudad autónoma de Buenos Aires). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. Inflation data
from December 2017 and onward refers to national inflation and is sourced from the National Statistical Institute
(INDEC). All forecasts refer to national INDEC inflation. Prior to December 2017, national inflation statistics are not
available from INDEC and historical data refers to Buenos Aires inflation and is sourced from the government of the 10
autonomous city of Buenos Aires. Historical data for Q4 2017 inflation AOP and 2017 inflation AOP are from the city
of Buenos Aires for consistency.
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (eop). 0

15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (eop). Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
16 Inflation, evolution of 2019 eop forecasts during the last 18 months.
17 Inflation, evolution of 2020 eop forecasts during the last 18 months.

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate
18 | Interest Rate | 2005 - 2023 | in % 19 | Interest Rate | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Argentina
Argentina ABECEB 48.00 23.00
Latin America
Latin America Analytica Consultora 46.04 30.93
45 60 Banco de Galicia 40.00 25.00
Banco Supervielle 57.90 28.90
Barclays Capital 45.00 27.00
30 40 BBVA Banco Francés 45.00 36.00
BTG Pactual 55.00 -
C&T Asesores 55.00 -
15 20 Citigroup Global Mkts 45.00 32.00
Credit Suisse 40.00 28.00
DEF 50.70 34.50
0 0 Eco Go 55.02 34.22
2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Ecolatina 57.37 37.50
Econométrica 65.00 45.00
20 | Int. Rate 2019 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst Econviews 45.00 35.00
Elypsis 55.50 38.25
90 60
Maximum Maximum
FIEL 63.00 43.00
Consensus Consensus Fitch Solutions 53.16 30.66
Minimum Minimum Fundación Capital 50.00 33.00
45
FyEConsult 85.50 45.94
60
HSBC 40.00 30.00
Invecq Consulting 62.00 38.00
30
Itaú BBA 45.00 30.00
LCG 70.00 57.50
30 M&F Consultora 62.00 52.00
15 OJF & Asociados 60.00 26.00
Oxford Economics 50.00 26.11
Société Générale 77.98 -
0 0 UBS 42.50 27.00
Summary
Minimum 40.00 23.00
22 | Interest Rate 2019 | Panelist Distribution Maximum 85.50 57.50
Median 53.16 32.50
60% Consensus 54.02 34.40
History
30 days ago 52.40 33.90
60 days ago 44.17 29.46
40% 90 days ago 37.33 25.97
20%
0%
<0.0 16.0 32.0 48.0 64.0 80.0 96.0 112.0 >112.0
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the The Central Bank of the
Argentine Republic (BCRA, Banco Central de la República Argentina). Forecasts are based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest Rate, 7-day LELIQ rate from 2005 to 2023 in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, 7-day LELIQ rate in % (eop).
20 Interest rate, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.
22 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2019 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate
23 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD Exchange Rate | ARS per USD
ABECEB 53.59 66.99
60 Analytica Consultora 50.67 58.60
75 Banco de Galicia 51.43 61.71
Banco Supervielle 50.81 69.39
45 Barclays Capital 48.50 57.26
50 BBVA Banco Francés 49.00 55.00
30 BTG Pactual 46.00 -
C&T Asesores 48.61 55.82
25 Capital Economics 50.00 60.00
15
Citigroup Global Mkts 46.00 56.00
0 0 DEF 52.83 67.61
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Eco Go 51.80 67.64
Ecolatina 50.78 67.43
25 | ARS per USD 2019 | evol. of fcst 26 | ARS per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst
Econométrica 51.46 62.25
Econviews 52.00 66.00
70 90
EIU 50.18 55.50
Elypsis 51.43 75.37
FIEL 53.00 60.43
70
Fitch Solutions 50.00 60.73
50 Fundación Capital 54.00 67.00
FyEConsult 59.47 71.41
50 Gabriel Rubinstein y Asoc. 50.00 58.60
Goldman Sachs 52.79 57.01
30 HSBC 50.00 58.00
Maximum 30 Invecq Consulting 50.00 55.00
Maximum
Consensus Consensus Itaú BBA 52.00 64.00
Minimum Minimum JPMorgan 50.00 -
10 10 LCG 51.00 66.30
M&F Consultora 51.28 63.87
Moody's Analytics 45.15 49.54
27 | ARS per USD 2019 | Panelist Distribution OJF & Asociados 52.10 62.36
100% Standard Chartered 50.00 53.00
UBS 48.50 59.00
80% Summary
Minimum 45.15 49.54
Maximum 59.47 75.37
60%
Median 50.67 60.43
Consensus 50.61 61.36
40% History
30 days ago 50.36 60.65
20% 60 days ago 50.07 58.88
90 days ago 47.71 55.21
0%
<30.0 36.0 42.0 48.0 54.0 60.0 66.0 72.0 >72.0
Notes and sources
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
23 Exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).
25 Exchange rate, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.
27 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2019 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance
Current Account and Trade Balance 28 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance 12
% of GDP USD bn
Argentina
ABECEB -2.5 -2.8 7.4 7.3
Analytica Consultora -2.2 - 5.7 - 6
Banco de Galicia -3.2 - 4.9 -
Banco Supervielle - - 8.9 10.0
Barclays Capital - - 9.5 3.7
BBVA Banco Francés -2.2 -2.0 11.1 12.6 0
BTG Pactual -1.7 - 9.0 -
C&T Asesores -2.8 -2.8 5.6 7.7
Capital Economics -3.0 -3.3 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -1.6 -1.8 - - -6
Credit Agricole -2.0 -2.1 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Credit Suisse -3.3 -2.7 - -
DEF -2.0 -2.4 12.1 10.5
DekaBank -2.1 -1.1 - - 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Eco Go -2.8 -2.4 6.8 7.6
Ecolatina -2.4 -2.6 9.9 9.0 -1.5
Econométrica -1.0 -1.3 10.1 8.5
Econviews -1.5 -2.1 9.5 6.3
EIU -2.1 -1.1 9.3 8.5 -2.5
Elypsis -1.6 -1.5 10.4 13.0
Euromonitor Int. -3.6 -3.2 5.3 5.2
FIEL -1.0 -0.8 13.7 13.5 -3.5
Fitch Solutions -2.6 -2.5 6.2 7.8
Fundación Capital -2.3 -2.3 8.8 5.7
FyEConsult -2.1 -0.8 10.6 14.3 -4.5
Goldman Sachs -1.9 -2.8 13.9 9.9 2019 2020
HSBC -2.3 -1.7 8.1 6.8
Invecq Consulting -2.0 -2.5 7.5 6.2 -5.5
Itaú BBA -1.2 -1.5 - - Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
JPMorgan -1.5 -1.9 9.2 6.1
LCG -2.3 -2.5 12.1 12.0
M&F Consultora - - 7.4 - 30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Moody's Analytics -1.0 -0.9 - - 100
OJF & Asociados -1.8 -2.7 8.9 8.0
Oxford Economics -2.3 -2.2 15.5 15.1
Société Générale -1.1 -0.2 - - 75
Standard Chartered -2.5 -2.5 - -

UBS -1.7 -2.2 5.9 6.4 50
UIA - CEU - - 7.8 -
Summary
25
Minimum -3.6 -3.3 4.9 3.7
Maximum -1.0 -0.2 15.5 15.1
Median -2.1 -2.2 9.0 8.0 0
Trade Balance
Consensus -2.1 -2.0 9.0 8.9 Exports
History Imports
-25
30 days ago -2.1 -2.0 9.5 9.1 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
60 days ago -2.3 -2.2 8.4 8.7
90 days ago -2.3 -2.3 7.8 7.4
31 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
10
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas -10
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2019 2020
28 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
29 Current account balance, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. -15
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD billions. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
31 Trade balance, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

External Sector | Exports and Imports
Exports and Imports 32 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports 40
USD bn USD bn
ABECEB 64.4 68.2 56.9 60.9 20
Analytica Consultora 62.5 - 56.8 -
Banco de Galicia 65.2 - 60.3 -
Banco Supervielle 68.8 72.6 59.9 62.5 0
Barclays Capital 64.3 64.9 54.9 61.2
BBVA Banco Francés 68.9 75.1 57.8 62.5
BTG Pactual 69.0 - 60.0 - -20
C&T Asesores 66.3 71.5 60.7 63.8
Argentina
DEF 69.8 76.9 57.7 66.4
Latin America
Eco Go 66.0 73.9 59.2 66.3 -40
Ecolatina 65.3 69.5 55.5 60.5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Econométrica 66.8 69.1 56.7 60.6
Econviews 63.0 68.5 53.5 62.2
EIU 64.6 68.7 55.4 60.2 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Elypsis 67.5 75.8 57.0 62.8
Euromonitor Int. 66.1 70.8 60.8 65.6 74
FIEL 66.5 73.0 52.8 59.5
Fitch Solutions 69.3 73.4 63.1 65.7
Fundación Capital 66.2 70.7 57.5 65.0
FyEConsult 66.9 72.4 56.3 58.0 71
Goldman Sachs 65.5 67.9 51.6 58.0
HSBC 62.1 64.0 54.0 57.2
Invecq Consulting 67.7 71.8 60.2 65.6
JPMorgan 66.5 72.2 57.3 66.1 68
LCG 67.0 69.7 55.0 57.7
M&F Consultora 71.5 - 64.1 -
2019 2020
OJF & Asociados 73.6 77.4 64.7 69.4
UBS 67.1 70.7 61.2 64.2 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
UIA - CEU 68.0 - 60.2 -
Summary
34 | Imports | variation in %
Minimum 62.1 64.0 50.7 57.2
Maximum 73.6 77.4 64.7 69.4 100
Median 66.5 71.5 57.4 62.5
Consensus 66.8 71.2 57.7 62.4
History 50
30 days ago 68.1 72.3 58.7 63.2
60 days ago 68.8 73.4 60.4 64.7
90 days ago 68.6 72.8 60.8 65.4 0
-50
Argentina
Latin America
-100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
35 | Imports | evol. of forecasts
86
78
70
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes 62
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
2019 2020
32 Exports, annual variation in %.
33 Exports, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. 54
34 Imports, annual variation in %. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
35 Imports, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

External Sector | Additional forecasts
International Reserves and External Debt 36 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

Int. Reserves External Debt 18
USD bn USD bn
ABECEB 63.0 63.0 - -
Banco de Galicia 76.0 - - - 12
Banco Supervielle 76.2 76.2 - -
Barclays Capital 75.0 69.1 295 310
Citigroup Global Mkts 70.0 78.0 286 296
Credit Suisse 68.0 72.4 295 304 6
DEF 61.1 63.0 - -
Eco Go 56.4 60.2 - - Argentina
Ecolatina 67.3 71.4 - -
Latin America
Econométrica 70.0 75.0 - - 0
Econviews 68.6 64.8 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EIU 73.4 89.0 281 314
Elypsis 62.8 - - -
Euromonitor Int. 54.2 56.5 - - 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
FIEL 64.0 71.0 305 340
Fitch Solutions 74.9 88.3 - - 80
Fundación Capital 60.0 55.0 - -
2019 2020
FyEConsult 55.3 49.3 311 342
Goldman Sachs 68.8 69.8 277 278
HSBC 67.7 87.1 275 297 70
Invecq Consulting - - 293 304
Itaú BBA 67.0 67.0 - -
JPMorgan 65.2 71.2 - -
LCG 62.8 68.8 - - 60
OJF & Asociados 76.7 84.1 - -
Oxford Economics 64.9 65.5 308 329
UBS 62.8 68.8 - -
UIA - CEU 60.0 - - - 50
Summary Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
Minimum 54.2 49.3 275 278
Maximum 76.7 89.0 311 342
38 | External Debt | % of GDP
Median 67.0 69.5 294 307
Consensus 66.4 70.2 293 311 200
History Argentina
30 days ago 67.0 70.3 295 314 Latin America
60 days ago 66.6 68.8 292 314 150
90 days ago 68.3 70.4 280 297
100
50
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
39 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts
340
310
Notes and sources

280
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2019 2020
36 International reserves, months of imports.
37 International reserves, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. 250
38 External debt as % of GDP. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
39 External debt, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Argentina in the Region

Official name: Argentine Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Buenos Aires (14.9 m)
Other cities: Córdoba (1.5 m)
Argentina
Rosario (1.4 m) 7.5% Argentina
Area (km2): 2,780,400 10.4%
Population (million, 2018 est.): 44.6 Other Other

18.1%
22.8%
Population density (per km2, 2018): 16.0
Population growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 0.9 Chile
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 77.5 Peru Brazil
5.7%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2016): 0.9 5.4% 35.0% Colombia

Brazil
6.3%
Language: Spanish Colombia
35.9%
Measures: Metric system 8.4%
Time: GMT-3 Mexico

Mexico 23.5%
21.0%
Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2017)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 22.0 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 140 2008-10 2011-13 2014-16 2008-10 2011-13 2014-16
100 120
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 71.0
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 17.7 Agriculture Net Exports
80 90
Energy (2016)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,224 Manufacturing Investment
60 60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,895
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 132
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 121 40 Other Industry 30
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 711
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 709 20 0 Private
Services
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 203 Consumption
0 -30
Transportation (2015)
Airports: 1,138
Railways (km): 36,917
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 231,374
Waterways (km): 11,000 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Buenos Aires, Bahía Blanca
Other Other
U.S.A.
6.6% U.S.A.
13.2% 6.1%
Political Data

11.7%

EU-27
13.3%
President: Mauricio Macri
Brazil
MENA
Last elections: 22 November 2015 12.4%
23.7%
EU-27
Next elections: 27 October 2019 Exports Imports 20.5%
Central Bank President: Guido Sandleris

Chile
5.6% Asia ex-
Japan

21.8%
Other
Other Asia
Brazil LatAm ex-Japan
16.2% 11.0% 8.3%
Other China

LatAm 18.3%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 11.4%
Agency Rating Outlook

Moody’s: B2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: B Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: B Negative
Other Mineral Other

Strengths Weaknesses 10.7% Fuels 6.8%
14.7%

• Well educated labor force • High fiscal deficit
• Rich in natural resources • Vulnerability to external shocks

Manufact.
• Financial support from the IMF • High inflation Exports Products Imports
Food 31.3%
58.0%

Manufact.
Products
78.4%
.

FOCUSECONOMICS Brazil June 2019
Brazil
Outlook worsens
Brazil
• GDP contracted in the first quarter of the year for the first time since the
severe recession in 2015-2016. A breakdown by components revealed
broad-based weakness in the economy, with uncertainty at home and
abroad strangling fixed investment. In addition, exports plunged on lower
mining sales amid troubles at Vale, the slowdown in global trade and
collapse in demand from key trading partner Argentina. Available data
for the second quarter points to lingering softness: Industrial production
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages barely grew in April and both consumer and business confidence fell in
May. Meanwhile, in June, the Supreme Court ruled that state-run firms
2015-17 2018-20 2021-23
Population (million): 205 210 214 do not need congressional approval to sell subsidiaries, a win for state-
GDP (USD bn): 1,883 1,913 2,219 run oil company Petrobras and Bolsonaro’s government. The decision will
GDP per capita (USD): 9,176 9,119 10,375 allow Petrobras to sell around USD 27 billion of assets to help reduce its
GDP growth (%): -2.0 1.6 2.7
bloated debt.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -9.0 -6.5 -5.4
Inflation (%): 7.0 3.9 3.9 • The recovery is seen languishing this year, picking up only modestly from
Current Account (% of GDP): -1.6 -1.2 -1.8 2018. Reform uncertainty will weigh on the business environment and
External Debt (% of GDP): 17.4 17.3 17.1
Angela Bouzanis dampen investment, while fiscal tightening and a tough external backdrop
Senior Economist from rising protectionism and slowing global growth will also take their toll.
This month, Brazil’s prospects were slashed for the fourth consecutive
month. FocusEconomics analysts project growth of 1.4% this year, which
is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts 2020.
4 2.8
• Inflation fell to 4.7% in May from April’s over two-year high of 4.9%.
2.4
0 Reduced price pressures for food were chiefly behind the result. Inflation
2.0
is seen easing in the coming quarters amid stunted domestic demand
and is projected to end the year below the Central Bank’s 2019 target of
-4
1.6 4.25%. Our panel sees inflation ending 2019 and 2020 at 4.1%.
2019 2020
-8
1.2 • At its May meeting, the Central Bank decided to keep the SELIC rate at
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20

its record low of 6.50%, as the sluggish recovery continues to warrant
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. an accommodative stance. Looking ahead, our panel is split on how the
Bank will act. On one hand, soft economic traction could dampen inflation
and prompt a rate cut; on the other hand, upside risks to inflation could
materialize. Consensus projects the SELIC rate to end 2019 at 6.33% and
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts 2020 at 6.93%.
15 4.4
Brazil
4.3
• The real regained some lost ground in recent weeks after having
Latin America
10
depreciated steadily in the first five months of the year on political noise
4.2
and downbeat economic data. On 7 June, the real ended the day at 3.88
4.1 per USD, a 2.4% appreciation from the same day in May. The currency
5
is expected to be volatile this year, as news emerges regarding crucial
4.0
reforms. Our panel sees the real ending 2019 at 3.82 per USD and 2020
2019 2020
0 3.9 at 3.86 per USD.


REAL SECTOR | GDP contracts in Q1 for the first time since 2016
Brazil’s economic recovery stalled at the start of 2019, with GDP contracting in
sequential terms for the first time since the 2015-2016 recession. Seasonally-
adjusted GDP dropped 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, contrasting the fourth
quarter’s 0.1% increase and in line with market expectations. A breakdown
by components revealed broad-based weakness in Brazil’s economy, which
was restrained by a limping domestic economy and bleak external backdrop.
Domestically, fixed investment continued to plummet in the first quarter, albeit

at a softer rate than the fourth quarter’s result (Q1 2019: -1.7% qoq; Q4 2018:
-2.4% qoq). Uncertainty both at home and abroad has suppressed investment,
which continues to linger below its pre-recession level despite interest rates
resting at record lows. Moreover, household spending lost ground in the
quarter, with growth slipping to 0.3% from Q4’s 0.5%, although government
consumption swung to a 0.4% expansion, contrasting Q4’s 0.3% fall.
On the external front, exports of goods and services contracted 1.9% qoq,
Gross Domestic Product | variation in %
notably below Q4’s 1.9% expansion. Subdued external demand weighed
1.5 3.0
on the result, particularly from Argentina, one of the country’s key trading
partners, which is mired in a deep crisis. Lower mining exports also took
effect, partly the consequence of ongoing woes at Vale; the world’s largest
0.0 0.0
iron ore production company was forced to close several operations in Q1
% % following a deadly dam disaster. Imports, in contrast, grew 0.5%, contrasting
Q4’s sharp 6.1% contraction.
-1.5 -3.0
Quarter-on-quarter s.a. (left scale)

On an annual basis, growth more than halved from 1.1% in Q4 to 0.5% in Q1.
-3.0 -6.0
Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019
Looking ahead, growth is expected to stay soft this year, plagued by a
Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on- challenging environment both at home and abroad. While improved sentiment
year variation %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and LatinFocus and accommodative monetary policy should help fuel a modest acceleration,
Consensus Forecast.
reform uncertainty and subdued external demand will limit the uptick.
Commenting on JPMorgan’s view after the latest data release, Brazil Chief
Economist Cassiana Fernandez explains:
“The 1Q GDP release confirmed the weakness of the economy at the

beginning of this year, prompting us to lower our GDP growth forecasts to
0.9% in 2019 and 2.0% in 2020. This outlook assumes that the social security
reform is approved later this year. But we think political instability is likely to
prevent a sharper recovery in investment. Against this backdrop, we now see
the first SELIC rate hike only in 2021.”
Striking a similar note, Serio Vale, chief economist at MB Associados adds:
“It should be pointed out that this is the third quarter in a row to register a drop
in the year-on-year growth rate, which indicates that the Brazilian economy
has been weakening since last year. The second quarter has not shown any
signs of improvement. […] Therefore, 2019 should see a lower GDP growth
than in 2018, of 0.9% by comparison with 1.1%.”
The Central Bank expects GDP to grow 2.0% in 2019. Our panel of analysts
sees the economy growing 1.4% next year, which is down 0.4 percentage
points from last month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel projects that growth will
accelerate to 2.3%.

Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in % REAL SECTOR | Economic activity drops again in March
5.0 2.8
In March, economic activity decreased 0.3% in seasonally-adjusted month-on-
Month-on-month s.a. (left scale) month terms, according to the Central Bank’s monthly indicator for economic
Annual average (right scale)
activity. The result followed February’s revised 1.0% drop (previously reported:
2.5 1.4
-0.7% month-on-month) and marked the third consecutive fall. Moreover, the
% %
weak print capped off a poor first quarter for the Brazilian economy and signals
0.0 0.0
that GDP could have contracted on a sequential basis.
-2.5 -1.4
On an annual basis, economic activity plunged 2.5% in March, notably
contrasting February’s revised 2.4% increase (previously reported: +2.5%
-5.0 -2.8
Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 year-on-year). Annual average growth in economic activity inched down from
February’s 1.2% to 1.1% in March.
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted IBC-Br (Indice de
Atividade Economica do Banco Central) and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.
REAL SECTOR | Industrial production rebounds modestly in April
Industrial production rose a soft 0.3% month-on-month in seasonally-
adjusted terms in April, contrasting March’s revised 1.4% drop (previously
reported: -1.3% mom) and undershooting market expectations. The poor
result underscores the troubled Brazilian recovery, which has failed to take off
hindered partly by a challenging external environment.
Industrial Production | variation in % The rebound was driven by a pickup in output of capital gods and a turnaround
20 4.0 in production of consumer goods. Among sectors, industrial output rose in 20
of the 26 surveyed, however, mining and quarrying production continued to
10 2.0 plunge partly due to ongoing issues with Vale.
0 0.0
On an annual basis, industrial production dropped 3.9% in April, an
% %
improvement from March’s sharp 6.1% contraction. Annual average variation
in industrial production came in at minus 1.2% in April down from March’s
-10 -2.0
Month-on-month s.a. (left scale)

minus 0.1%.
-20 -4.0
Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 The analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics for this month’s LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast see industrial production growing 0.9% in 2019, which
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted industrial production and
annual average growth rate in %. is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2020, industrial
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and
FocusEconomics calculations. output is expected to grow 2.9%.
REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI drops to nearly one-year low in May

Conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector appear to have deteriorated further
in May. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 51.5 to
50.2, the worst reading since June 2018. As a result, the PMI lies only slightly
above the crucial 50-threshold, signaling modest expansionary conditions in
the manufacturing sector.
Purchasing Managers’ Index
56
May’s print reflected renewed drops in new orders and jobs, as well as slower
manufacturing output growth. Survey respondents cited uncertainty, political
troubles and weak demand weighing on production in May, and business
53 sentiment deteriorated overall. Meanwhile, a weak real ramped up inflationary
prices in the economy.
50
OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence drops to seven-month low in May
The seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index published by the Getulio
Vargas Foundation (FGV, Fundaçao Getúlio Vargas) fell in May. The index
47
May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 came in at 86.6 points, below April’s 89.5.
Note: Markit Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading
above 50 indicates an expansion in business activity while a value below 50
points to a contraction.
The fall was driven by consumers’ less optimistic assessment of both the
Source: IHS Markit. current and future economic situations. Slow reform momentum and downbeat
economic growth likely contributed to weakening sentiment.

Consumer Confidence Index

The FGV confidence index spans a range from 1 to 200 points, where 100
120
points is considered neutral. Despite improvements over the past years the
index remains in negative territory.
100
Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report see private consumption
growing 1.7% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s
80 estimate. For 2020, the panel sees private consumption rising 2.9%.
OUTLOOK | Business confidence eases in May

60
Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Business sentiment in Brazil deteriorated in May, erasing April’s gains. The
Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV, Fundaçao Getúlio Vargas) business
Note: Index of consumer sentiment (seasonally adjusted). The 100-point
threshold represents the point above which consumers expect economic confidence index fell to 97.2 points from April’s 97.9 points. The index lies
conditions to improve.
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation.
below the 100-point threshold and signals pessimism among firms.
Business Confidence Index According to the FGV, the deterioration was driven by firms more pessimistic
110
assessments of the future economic situation.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see fixed

investment rising 2.5% in 2019, which is down 1.6 percentage points from
100
last month’s forecast. In 2020, participants expect fixed investment to record
a 5.0% expansion.
90
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation eases from two-year high in May
Consumer prices rose 0.13% in May over the previous month, a softer gain
80 than April’s 0.57% increase and undershooting expectations of a larger 0.20%
Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19
rise. Notably, May’s result marked the smallest jump in prices recorded for
Note: Index of business sentiment (seasonally adjusted). The 100-point threshold that month since 2006. Falling prices for food and beverages chiefly drove the
represents the point above which businesses expect economic conditions to
improve.
lower print, along with a smaller rise in transportation prices.
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation.
Inflation fell to 4.7% in May from April’s over two-year of 4.9%. The result is
above the Central Bank’s target of 4.25% for the end of 2019. Annual average
1.5 6.0 inflation, however, edged up from 4.2% in April to 4.3% in May.
1.0 5.0
In a scenario based upon market expectations, the Central Bank sees inflation
ending 2019 at 4.1% and 2020 at 3.8%. FocusEconomics participants see
inflation closing 2019 at 4.1%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last
0.5 4.0
%
month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel expects inflation to end the year at
%
4.1%.
0.0 3.0
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Current account deficit broadly stable in April

-0.5 2.0
May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Brazil’s current account balance came in at a deficit of USD 62 million in April,
Note: Annual and monthly var. of IPCA consumer price index in %.
largely unchanged compared to the USD 61 million shortfall recorded in the
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). same month of 2018.
Current Account Balance | USD billion The result reflected a broadly unchanged trade surplus of USD 5.4 billion (April
4.0 0
2018: USD 5.5 billion). Both exports and imports contracted on an annual
Monthly current account (left scale) basis in April, reflecting the sour economic backdrop in Brazil. Meanwhile, the
12-month current account balance (right scale)
services account deficit increased slightly. Foreign direct investment came in
0.0 -10 at USD 7.0 billion in April, above April 2018’s USD 3.0 billion.
The 12-month trailing current account deficit was unchanged at USD 13.7
-4.0 -20
billion in April, matching March’s result and equal to approximately 0.7% of
GDP.
-8.0 -30
FocusEconomics participants expect a current account deficit of 1.2% of GDP
in 2019. For 2020, the panel sees the deficit worsening to 1.6% of GDP.
Note: Monthly and 12-month current account balance in USD billion.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and FocusEconomics calculations.

Annual Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real Sector
Population (million) 202 203 205 207 208 210 211 213 214 215
GDP (USD bn) 2,455 1,796 1,800 2,053 1,868 1,878 1,994 2,099 2,216 2,342
GDP (BRL bn) 5,779 5,996 6,267 6,554 6,828 7,193 7,647 8,145 8,682 9,261
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.5 -3.5 -3.3 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 0.3 -6.3 -4.8 1.0 1.7 1.2 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.3 -3.2 -3.9 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.8 -1.4 0.2 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -4.2 -13.9 -12.1 -2.5 4.1 2.5 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.6 6.8 0.9 5.2 4.1 3.4 3.5 4.2 4.6 4.9
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -2.3 -14.2 -10.3 5.0 8.5 3.8 6.5 5.9 5.5 5.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -3.0 -8.2 -6.4 2.5 1.1 0.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.2 -4.4 -6.3 2.1 2.3 2.5 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.0
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 11.75 14.25 13.75 7.00 6.50 6.33 6.93 7.37 7.44 7.51
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 12.43 16.49 11.42 10.21 9.24 8.98 9.07 9.35 9.42 9.48
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 2.66 3.96 3.25 3.31 3.88 3.82 3.86 3.90 3.94 3.97
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop) 2.35 3.34 3.48 3.19 3.65 3.83 3.84 3.88 3.92 3.95
External Sector
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 225 191 185 218 240 246 258 272 288 307
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 229 171 138 151 181 195 211 228 245 264
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -7.0 -15.1 -3.1 17.6 10.1 2.6 5.1 5.1 5.9 6.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -4.4 -25.2 -19.8 9.6 20.2 7.4 8.6 7.7 7.6 7.6
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 87.7 60.3 73.4 70.3 88.3 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 364 356 365 374 375 383 386 395 402 409
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.3 1.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.5 0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.7 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.3 -0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 7.8 3.0 0.9 2.8 2.1 3.6 4.6 5.2 5.4 5.4
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.2 -1.2 -2.3 1.8 1.4 2.4 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.8
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 1.1 2.2 0.3 2.2 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.5
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.36 6.33 6.27 6.47 6.58 6.93
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop) 3.95 3.81 3.77 3.89 3.84 3.82 3.82 3.83 3.84 3.85
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 12.0 16.6 10.9 16.8 12.3 12.7 7.5 15.1 11.8 13.7
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, ann. var. %) 2.1 0.5 2.6 1.7 0.3 1.0 2.4 -2.5 - -
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, mom var. %) 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -1.0 -0.3 - -
Industrial Production (mom s.a. var. %) -0.7 -1.9 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.7 0.7 -1.4 0.3 -
Markit Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 51.1 50.9 51.1 52.7 52.6 52.7 53.4 52.8 51.5 50.2
Retail Sales (mom s.a. var. %) 1.7 -0.7 -0.9 3.2 -2.2 0.5 0.0 0.3 - -
Consumer Confidence (100-pt threshold, s.a.) 83.9 83.1 85.4 92.9 93.0 96.6 96.1 91.0 89.5 86.6
Business Confidence (100-pt threshold, s.a.) 99.2 95.9 94.2 95.7 95.6 98.2 99.0 97.2 97.9 97.2
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) -0.09 0.48 0.45 -0.21 0.15 0.32 0.43 0.75 0.57 0.13
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.6 4.9 4.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.2 0.1 0.2 -0.8 -0.8 -6.5 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 -

8 Individual Forecasts 2019 2020

4
Banco Bradesco 1.1 2.2
Banco Fator 0.8 2.1
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 1.0 3.0
4 Banco Safra 0.8 2.0
0
Banco Votorantim 1.7 2.2
BBVA Research 1.8 1.8
0 -4 BNP Paribas 0.8 2.5
Capital Economics 1.5 2.3
Brazil Brazil Citigroup Global Mkts 1.4 2.0
Latin America Latin America Commerzbank 0.7 2.0
World World
-4 -8 Credit Agricole 1.8 2.6
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Credit Suisse 1.7 2.7
Danske Bank 2.0 2.6
3 | GDP 2019 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts Datalynk 0.9 2.5
DekaBank 1.8 2.4
4 4 DIW Berlin 1.0 1.1
DuckerFrontier 1.8 3.1
EIU 1.5 2.5
3 3
Euromonitor Int. 2.1 2.3
Fitch Ratings 2.1 2.7
2 2
Haitong 1.2 2.5
ING 1.3 3.2
1 1
Maximum
Itaú BBA 1.0 2.0
Maximum
Consensus Consensus JPMorgan 0.9 2.0
Minimum Minimum Julius Baer 2.0 1.5
0 0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr KBC 2.0 2.4
Kiel Institute 1.3 2.5
LCA Consultores 1.0 2.5
5 | GDP 2019 | Panelist Distribution MB Associados 0.9 2.0
40%
Nomura 2.1 2.5
Parallaxis Economics 1.0 2.2
30%
Petros 0.7 1.8
Pezco Economics 1.2 3.0
20%
Rosenberg Associados 1.5 2.8
Santander 1.3 2.5
S-Bank 2.0 2.0
10% Scotiabank 0.9 1.8
Société Générale 1.0 1.5
Standard Chartered 2.2 2.1
0% Tendências Consultoria Integrada 0.9 2.6
<0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 >2.3 UBS 1.8 2.5
Summary
Minimum 0.7 1.1
Maximum 2.2 3.2
Median 1.2 2.4
Consensus 1.4 2.3
History
30 days ago 1.8 2.4
Notes and sources 60 days ago 2.1 2.5
90 days ago 2.3 2.5
General: Additional Forecasts
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional Central Bank (Mar. 2019) 2.0 -
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography
and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on IMF (Apr. 2019) 2.1 2.5
1 GDP, real annual variation in %.


8
Banco Bradesco 1.5 2.5 3.5 5.5
Banco Fator 0.9 1.8 -1.8 4.5
4
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 1.1 3.2 2.5 4.0
Banco Safra 1.4 2.3 1.7 6.0
Banco Votorantim 2.2 2.9 3.1 4.3
BBVA Research 1.7 1.6 6.3 3.3 0
Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 2.1 - -
Credit Suisse 2.3 2.9 3.0 5.8 Brazil
Danske Bank 2.3 3.0 3.2 4.5 Latin America
Datalynk 1.6 3.0 1.8 5.5 -4
DuckerFrontier 2.3 3.8 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EIU 1.3 2.3 3.5 5.0

Euromonitor Int. 2.3 2.5 - -
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Fitch Ratings 2.4 2.8 4.0 4.2
Fitch Solutions 1.0 2.9 2.0 4.0 3.4
Goldman Sachs 1.9 3.2 2.1 6.1
Haitong 1.5 - 1.5 -
ING 1.3 2.5 4.0 5.0 3.0
LCA Consultores 1.4 3.2 1.1 2.7

MB Associados 1.4 6.5 1.7 3.3 2.6
Moody's Analytics 2.0 3.1 - -
Oxford Economics 1.8 1.9 0.0 3.8
2.2
Parallaxis Economics 1.2 3.2 2.0 3.0
Pezco Economics 1.0 3.2 3.2 8.3
Rosenberg Associados 2.1 3.9 4.0 8.9 1.8
Société Générale 2.0 2.0 3.8 3.9 2019 2020
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 1.7 2.5 1.5 6.1
1.4
UBS 2.5 3.4 5.0 6.0 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
Summary
Minimum 0.9 1.6 -1.8 2.7
Maximum 2.5 6.5 6.3 8.9
Median 1.6 2.9 2.5 4.8
Consensus 1.7 2.9 2.5 5.0 20
History
30 days ago 2.1 2.8 4.1 5.4
60 days ago 2.4 2.8 4.8 5.4
10
90 days ago 2.4 2.8 5.3 5.2
-10
Brazil
Latin America
-20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2019 2020
6
Notes and sources 4
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro 3
de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. 2

15
Brazil variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
Latin America Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
10 Banco Bradesco 1.0 2.5 12.7 12.6 -5.7 -6.4
Banco Fator -0.2 1.7 12.1 12.6 -6.2 -5.7
5
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 0.6 3.0 11.9 10.8 - -
Banco Safra 0.0 1.5 11.8 11.2 -6.2 -5.2
Banco Votorantim 1.0 - 11.8 11.4 -6.0 -5.1
0 Barclays Capital -0.1 3.4 11.6 11.0 -6.8 -6.9
BBVA Research - - 11.8 10.0 -5.4 -5.5
-5
BNP Paribas - - - - -7.2 -6.6
Capital Economics - - 12.0 11.5 -6.7 -6.5
Citigroup Global Mkts - - 11.6 10.2 -6.5 -7.0
-10 Credit Suisse - - 11.3 10.6 -6.4 -6.7
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Danske Bank - - 11.2 10.6 - -
Datalynk 0.8 2.3 12.0 11.6 -6.4 -5.5
DekaBank - - - - -5.8 -4.9
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
DIW Berlin - - 8.4 6.2 - -
4 DuckerFrontier 1.1 3.6 12.2 10.7 - -
EIU - - - - -5.8 -4.9
Euromonitor Int. 2.8 3.7 11.0 10.0 - -
3 Fitch Solutions - - - - -6.3 -5.6
Goldman Sachs - - 11.5 9.9 -6.6 -6.4
Haitong 1.5 2.5 11.7 10.4 -6.7 -6.2
2
ING 2.5 4.2 11.7 11.0 -6.0 -5.3
Itaú BBA - - 12.0 11.6 -5.8 -5.6
JPMorgan - - - - -6.1 -5.9
LCA Consultores 1.3 3.2 11.9 11.8 -6.6 -6.7
1
MB Associados 0.8 2.2 11.8 10.9 -6.9 -6.5
2019 2020 Moody's Analytics - - 11.9 11.4 - -
Oxford Economics - - 11.7 10.5 -6.7 -6.2
0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Parallaxis Economics 0.5 3.0 12.2 11.7 - -
Pezco Economics 0.3 2.3 11.7 11.0 -7.2 -6.4
Rosenberg Associados 0.4 3.5 11.8 11.0 - -
Santander - - 11.9 10.9 -6.6 -6.8
17 Tendências Consultoria Integrada 0.9 4.3 11.9 11.6 -6.7 -6.2
UBS 1.5 2.0 11.9 11.2 -6.3 -6.1
Summary
Minimum -0.2 1.5 8.4 6.2 -7.2 -7.0
Maximum 2.8 4.3 12.7 12.6 -5.4 -4.9
13
Median 0.9 3.0 11.8 11.0 -6.4 -6.2
Consensus 0.9 2.9 11.7 10.9 -6.4 -6.0
History
30 days ago 1.5 3.1 11.5 10.6 -6.2 -6.0
9
60 days ago 2.4 3.1 11.4 10.5 -6.2 -5.9
90 days ago 2.8 3.3 11.4 10.5 -6.2 -6.0
Brazil
Latin America
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-3
-6 Notes and sources
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de
-9
Geografia e Estatistica) and the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). See below for details. Forecasts based on
Brazil LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
Latin America 10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: IBGE.
-12 11 Industrial production, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: IBGE.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCB.


Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
15
(ann. var. in %, eop) (ann. var. in %, aop)
Brazil
Banco Bradesco 4.0 3.9 - - Latin America
Banco Fator 3.9 3.9 - -
10
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8
Banco Safra 4.0 - - -
Banco Votorantim - - 3.9 3.9
BBVA Research 4.2 4.7 4.0 4.6 5
BNP Paribas - - 3.9 3.9
Citigroup Global Mkts 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0
Commerzbank - - 4.0 3.8 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Credit Agricole 3.8 4.0 - -
Credit Suisse 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.2
Danske Bank - - 3.7 4.0
15 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in %
Datalynk 4.0 4.0 - -
DekaBank - - 4.0 3.8 15
DIW Berlin 5.3 6.5 - - Brazil
EIU 4.1 3.8 4.0 3.8 Latin America
10
Fitch Ratings 4.0 4.0 - -
Haitong 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.8
5
ING 4.1 4.0 - -
Itaú BBA 3.6 3.6 - -
JPMorgan 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Julius Baer - - 4.0 4.0
KBC - - 4.0 4.0 0
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Kiel Institute 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.0
LCA Consultores 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.7
MB Associados 4.0 4.0 - -
Moody's Analytics - - 4.3 4.7
Nomura 3.6 4.1 - -
7
Oxford Economics 4.4 4.0 4.0 4.1 Maximum
Parallaxis Economics 3.8 4.0 - - Consensus
Petros 4.1 4.3 - - 6 Minimum
Pezco Economics 4.0 3.9 - -

Rosenberg Associados 3.9 4.0 - -
5
Santander 4.0 4.5 - -
S-Bank 4.2 4.2 - -
Scotiabank 4.9 4.6 - - 4
Société Générale - - 4.2 4.0
3
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 4.1 3.9 - -
UBS 4.3 4.0 4.2 3.7
Summary 2
Minimum 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.6
Maximum 5.3 6.5 4.3 4.7
Median 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9
Consensus 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0
History 7
30 days ago 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.1 Maximum
60 days ago 3.9 4.1 3.8 4.1 Consensus
6 Minimum
90 days ago 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.3
Notes and sources 4
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Brazilian Institute of Geography 3
and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts are based on
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 2
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
16 Inflation, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Brazil
Latin America
14 Banco Fator 5.25 5.00
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 6.50 8.00
20 Banco Safra 5.50 6.00
12
10 BBVA Research 6.50 8.25
8
Brazil Credit Agricole 6.50 7.75
Latin America Credit Suisse 7.00 8.00
0 6
Danske Bank 6.00 -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Datalynk 6.00 6.00
DekaBank 6.50 -
20 | Int. Rate 2019 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst Fitch Ratings 6.50 7.75
12
12 Maximum
Maximum Goldman Sachs 6.50 7.25
Consensus
Minimum
Consensus Haitong 6.50 8.00
Minimum
10 10
ING 6.50 6.50
Itaú BBA 5.75 5.50
JPMorgan 6.50 6.50
8 8
KBC 6.50 -
LCA Consultores 5.50 6.50
MB Associados 6.50 6.50
6 6 Oxford Economics 6.00 6.00
Petros 6.50 7.25
4 4 Pezco Economics 6.50 6.50
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Rosenberg Associados 6.50 7.50
Santander 6.50 6.50
Scotiabank 7.00 8.50
22 | Interest Rate 2019 | Panelist Distribution Société Générale 6.50 -
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 6.00 5.75
60%
UBS 6.50 7.50
Summary
Minimum 5.25 5.00
40%
Maximum 7.00 8.50
Median 6.50 6.75
Consensus 6.33 6.93
History
20% 30 days ago 6.47 7.24
60 days ago 6.65 7.52
90 days ago 6.90 7.70
0%
<4.75 5.25 5.75 6.25 6.75 7.25 7.75 8.25 >8.25
Notes and sources
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCB,
Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD Exchange Rate | BRL per USD
5 4.2 Individual Forecasts 2019 2020
Banco Fator 3.95 4.00
4 3.9 Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 3.85 4.00
Banco Safra 3.70 3.80
3 3.6 Barclays Capital 3.90 3.90
BBVA Research 3.90 4.05
2 3.3 Citigroup Global Mkts 3.87 3.78
Commerzbank 3.60 -
Credit Agricole 3.75 3.70
1 3.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Danske Bank 3.55 -
Datalynk 3.90 4.10
25 | BRL per USD 2019 | evol. of fcst 26 | BRL per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst DekaBank 3.85 -
5.0
EIU 3.84 3.89
5.0
Maximum Maximum Fitch Ratings 3.80 3.80
Consensus Consensus Fitch Solutions 4.00 4.11
4.5 Minimum 4.5 Minimum
Haitong 3.70 3.75
4.0 4.0 ING 3.70 3.80
Itaú BBA 3.80 3.90
JPMorgan 3.90 -
3.5 3.5
Julius Baer 3.97 4.09
KBC 4.00 -
3.0 3.0 LCA Consultores 3.80 3.78
MB Associados 3.80 3.70
2.5 2.5 Moody's Analytics 3.79 3.75
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Nomura 3.60 3.80
27 | BRL per USD 2019 | Panelist Distribution Petros 3.80 3.71
60%
Rosenberg Associados 3.80 3.70
Santander 4.00 4.30
40%
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 3.75 3.81
UBS 3.55 3.70
20% Summary
Minimum 3.50 3.36
Maximum 4.35 4.45
Median 3.80 3.80
0% Consensus 3.82 3.86
<3.10 3.30 3.50 3.70 3.90 4.10 4.30 4.50 >4.70 History
30 days ago 3.79 3.86
60 days ago 3.77 3.83
90 days ago 3.75 3.81
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn
Banco Bradesco -0.8 -1.3 55.8 53.2 0
Banco Fator -1.3 -1.2 48.2 52.1
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. -1.1 -1.8 50.0 35.0
Banco Safra -1.3 -1.6 48.0 48.0
-2
Banco Votorantim -1.0 -2.0 53.7 46.9
Barclays Capital -1.3 -1.8 51.3 46.0
BBVA Research -1.0 -1.7 - -
-4
BNP Paribas -1.5 -2.4 - -
Capital Economics -0.7 -1.0 - - Brazil
Citigroup Global Mkts -1.2 -1.6 - - Latin America
Credit Agricole -1.2 -1.8 - - -6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Credit Suisse -1.2 -1.7 56.0 49.1
Datalynk -1.0 -1.8 52.0 45.0
DekaBank -1.3 -1.5 - -
29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
EIU -1.3 -1.5 39.5 40.8
Euromonitor Int. -1.1 -1.4 58.1 56.8 -1.2
Goldman Sachs -1.3 -1.7 47.6 43.9 2019 2020
Haitong -1.1 -1.5 56.0 55.3

ING -0.9 -1.3 54.0 48.0
-1.4
Itaú BBA -0.8 -1.8 61.2 53.5
JPMorgan -1.0 -1.6 48.6 41.7
LCA Consultores -1.9 -1.6 53.9 53.8
MB Associados -0.7 -1.0 57.1 51.4
-1.6
Moody's Analytics -2.6 -2.4 - -
Nomura -1.2 -1.7 - -
Oxford Economics -1.0 -1.0 53.6 49.0
Parallaxis Economics -1.8 -1.5 46.0 50.0
-1.8
Pezco Economics -1.0 -1.0 55.9 59.6 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
Rosenberg Associados -0.9 -1.4 40.1 25.9
Santander -1.6 -2.4 44.0 33.0
Société Générale -1.0 -1.2 - -
30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Tendências Consultoria Integrada -1.1 -1.4 50.5 49.0 400
UBS -1.5 -2.0 52.2 45.1 Trade Balance
Exports
Summary Imports
300
Minimum -2.6 -2.4 39.5 25.9
Maximum -0.7 -1.0 61.2 59.6
Median -1.2 -1.6 52.0 48.0 200
Consensus -1.2 -1.6 51.3 47.1
History
30 days ago -1.2 -1.6 50.7 46.7 100
60 days ago -1.3 -1.6 50.5 46.8

90 days ago -1.3 -1.7 50.5 46.9 0
-100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
54
50
Notes and sources
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil) and the Ministry
of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC, Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2019 2020
28 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: BCB.
29 Current account balance, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. 42
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: MDIC. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr


Exports Imports 50
USD bn USD bn Brazil
Latin America
Banco Bradesco 243 252 187 199
Banco Fator 243 253 195 201 25
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 240 255 190 220
Banco Safra 245 260 197 212
Banco Votorantim 245 257 191 210
Barclays Capital 246 254 195 208
0
Credit Suisse 254 267 198 218
Datalynk 246 255 194 210
EIU 240 256 200 215
Euromonitor Int. 251 266 192 209
Fitch Solutions 249 259 200 213 -25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Goldman Sachs 248 260 200 216
Haitong 254 269 198 214
ING 256 272 202 224
33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Itaú BBA 240 242 179 189
JPMorgan 250 262 201 221 275
LCA Consultores 240 250 186 196
MB Associados 238 260 181 208 2019 2020
Oxford Economics 242 248 188 199
Parallaxis Economics 236 250 190 200
260
Pezco Economics 246 264 190 205
Rosenberg Associados 253 271 213 245
Santander 248 257 204 224
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 244 257 194 208
245
UBS 251 265 199 220
Summary
Minimum 236 242 179 189
Maximum 256 272 213 245
230
Median 246 257 195 210 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
Consensus 246 258 195 211
History
30 days ago 248 261 197 214
60 days ago 248 261 198 214
90 days ago 249 262 198 215 60
40
20
-20
Brazil
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
220
2019 2020
210
200
Notes and sources
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC,
Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.


USD bn USD bn Brazil
Banco Safra 383 391 - - 30
Banco Votorantim 375 375 - -
Barclays Capital 387 391 - -
BNP Paribas 380 377 - -
20
Citigroup Global Mkts 384 384 338 339
Credit Suisse 378 383 - -
Datalynk 375 370 - -
10
EIU 375 377 - -
Euromonitor Int. 380 385 - -
Fitch Solutions 424 433 - -
Goldman Sachs 390 405 - - 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Haitong 380 380 - -
ING 380 379 - -
LCA Consultores 378 382 342 373
37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
MB Associados - - 304 307
Oxford Economics 391 404 332 352 400
Pezco Economics 381 382 - - 2019 2020
Rosenberg Associados 378 382 - -
UBS 374 374 - -
395
Summary
Minimum 374 370 304 307
Maximum 424 433 342 373
390
Median 380 382 335 345
Consensus 383 386 329 342
History
385
30 days ago 382 386 325 342
60 days ago 382 386 337 359
90 days ago 381 385 324 334
380
50
Brazil
Latin America
40
30
20
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
425
400
375
Notes and sources 350
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts based 325
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2019 2020

Fact Sheet
General Data Brazil in the Region

Official name: Federative Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Brazil
Capital: Brasilia (4.5m)
Other cities: Sao Paulo (21.7m)
Rio de Janeiro (13.3m)
Area (km2): 8,515,770 Other Other
18.0%
22.8%
Population (million, 2018 est.): 208 Brazil
35.0% Brazil
Population density (per km2, 2018): 24.5 Chile
36.0%
Population growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 0.7 Peru

5.7%
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 74.3 5.4% Colombia

6.4%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2015 est.): 8 Argentina
7.5%
Language: Portuguese Argentina
10.4%
Measures: Metric system Colombia
8.4% Mexico
Mexico
Time: GMT-2 to GMT-4 21.0%
23.5%
Economic Structure
100 120
80 90
Energy (2016)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 11,626 60
Manufacturing
60
Investment

Government
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 3,240
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,984 20 0 Private
Services
0 -30
Airports: 4,093
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 1,580,964
Chief Ports: Santos, Belem
Other
12.4% U.S.A.
Other 9.4%
Political Data 12.5%

U.S.A.
17.7%
MENA
5.9%
President: Jair Bolsonaro MENA
Argentina

7.5%

Last elections: 28 October 2018
EU-27
5.6%
17.9%
Next elections: 2022 Argentina
Other EU-27
6.9%
Exports Other Imports
Central Bank President: Roberto Oliveira Campos Neto LatAm
13.9%
10.4%
Other
LatAm Germany
11.8% Other Asia
ex-Japan 6.1%
China
11.8% Other Asia
18.8% ex-Japan
China
19.0% 12.3%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Moody’s: Ba2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BB- Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB- Stable
Other Other
Food
4.3%
Strengths Weaknesses 6.2%
Mineral
5.8%
Fuels
15.1%
• Commitment to economic • Pronounced socio-economic Food
36.8%
orthodoxy inequalities Manufact.

Exports Products Imports
• Large domestic market and • Inadequate infrastructure 37.6%
diversified production creates bottleneck for economic
• Stable financial system growth
Mineral Manufact.
• Strong foreign direct investment • Privatization and deregulation Fuels Ores & Products
7.6% Metals 74.8%
flows bolster capital account lagging 11.9%
.

FOCUSECONOMICS Chile June 2019
Chile
Outlook moderates
Chile
• A detailed release confirmed growth markedly decelerated in the first

quarter. Fixed investment growth nearly halved while household spending
softened, dragged by sluggish gains in employment and downbeat
consumer confidence. As for the external sector, exports contracted for
the first time in almost two years, as a slump in mining output in Q1—amid
adverse weather in February—weighed on copper shipments. Moreover,
recent data suggests that the economy remained stunted at Q2’s outset.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages Although economic activity strengthened slightly in April on a rebound in
2015-17 2018-20 2021-23
mining, manufacturing output contracted and merchandise export growth
Population (million): 18.2 18.7 19.3 fell for a third consecutive month. Consumption also likely got off to a slow
GDP (USD bn): 258 306 359
start in the second quarter: In April, retail sales recorded the sharpest fall
GDP growth (%): 1.8 3.4 3.0 in at least four years, while consumer sentiment fell to its lowest point in
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.5 -1.7 -1.1 two years in May.
Inflation (%): 3.4 2.5 3.0
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.0 -2.9 -2.3 • Growth is projected to decelerate this year, as reignited trade tensions and
a slowing global economy weigh on exports. Moreover, sluggish gains
Nicolas J. Aguilar in employment growth suggest that private consumption could struggle
Economist to sustain momentum. Nevertheless, solid fixed investment, buoyed by
upbeat credit growth and an upcoming tax reform, should buffer any
slowdown. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.1% in 2019,
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and also
6 3.6
3.1% in 2020.
4 3.4
• Inflation came in at 2.3% in May, up from April’s 2.0% result, thus rising
closer to the midpoint of the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target band.
2 3.2
The print largely reflected higher prices for housing, and recreation and
culture. Going forward, price pressures should increase gradually amid
0 3.0
slower GDP growth. Our panel expects inflation to end 2019 at 2.7%,
2019 2020
which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2020 at 2.9%.
-2 2.8
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. • At its last monetary policy meeting on 7 June, the Central Bank
unexpectedly cut the monetary policy rate by 50bp to 2.50%, amid softer-
than-expected inflation and lackluster growth in Q1. Looking ahead, the
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts Bank highlighted that monetary policy will remain accommodative to
12 3.2 ensure clear transition towards the target level. LatinFocus Consensus
Chile
Latin America Forecast panelists are still assessing the Bank’s decision. The current
9
3.0
consensus is for the policy rate to increase gradually going forward,
ending 2019 at 3.04% and 2020 at 3.43%.
6
2.8
• The Chilean peso gained some ground in the first week of June after the
3
2019 2020 Fed struck a dovish tone on 4 June; however, the improvement was not
0 2.6
enough to offset the losses in May. On 7 June, the CLP traded at 693, a
1.2% depreciation from the same day last month. Going forward, the peso
variation in %, Q1 2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. is expected to strengthen on upbeat copper prices. Our panelists expect
the peso to end 2019 at 670 CLP per USD and 2020 at 661 CLP per USD.

REAL SECTOR | Growth slows to near two-year low in Q1

Growth decelerated to 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, more than half
Q4 2018’s 3.6% and marking the slowest acceleration since Q2 2017. A sharp
drop in mining activity led the weaker first quarter performance, which had
been largely anticipated by analysts.
Gross Domestic Product | variation in % Domestic activity lost stride in the first quarter. Notably, despite upbeat
6
business confidence, fixed investment growth nearly halved amid slower
expenditure in machinery and equipment (Q1: +2.9% year-on-year; Q4 2018:
+5.6% yoy), surprising analysts who had expected it to underpin the quarterly
4
expansion. In addition, household spending moderated amid slow gains in
employment and lower consumer sentiment (Q1: +3.2% yoy; Q4 2018: +3.6%
2 yoy). Meanwhile, government spending rose 1.7% in Q1, accelerating from
%
Q4’s 1.3% expansion.
0
On the external front, exports contracted in Q1 on falling copper shipments
and logged the weakest print in seven quarters (Q1: -1.8% yoy; Q4 2018:
-2 +3.3% yoy). On the other hand, import growth decelerated from 6.6% in Q4 to
Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019
2.3% in Q1, cushioning the external sector’s downturn somewhat.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCC) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
Looking at the industry-level performance, the first-quarter slowdown was
driven by slump in the mining economy. Mining GDP contracted 3.6% annually
in Q1, following a 1.3% expansion in the previous quarter, amid adverse
weather conditions in February. In addition, non-mining GDP growth slowed
to 2.2%, from 3.7% in Q4 2018.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP recorded null growth in the first quarter,

down from Q4’s 1.3% upturn.
The Central Bank sees growth expanding between 2.8%–3.5% in 2019 and
between 3.0%–4.0% in 2020. FocusEconomics panelists see growth of 3.1%
in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and again
3.1% in 2020.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity speeds up in April

In April, the IMACEC index gathered momentum for a second consecutive
Economic Activity | variation in % month, after February recorded the weakest expansion in almost two years.
8 Economic activity rose 2.1% year-on-year in April, accelerating from March’s
Year-on-year Annual average
1.8% result.
6
4
The print chiefly reflected a rebound in the mining economy, which expanded
1.9% after contracting a revised 0.9% a month prior (previously reported:
2 -2.1% year-on-year). Meanwhile, growth in the non-mining economy came
% at 2.1% in April, matching March’s revised result (previously reported: +2.3%
0
yoy).
-2
Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 In seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity rose 0.3% month-on-month in
April, down from March’s 0.6% increase.
Note: Year-on-year and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh)
OUTLOOK | Consumer sentiment slumps to two-year low in May

The Adimark GfK consumer confidence index declined to 40.7 points in
May, from 43.2 points in April, marking the lowest reading since May 2017.
Consequently, the index fell further below the critical 50-point threshold that
separates pessimism from optimism among Chilean consumers.
May’s detailed estimate showed an across-the-board deterioration in all five

sub-components of the index. Notably, consumers’ perception of their own

personal situation and their assessment of the country’s current situation

Consumer Confidence dropped the most and both fell further into negative territory. Meanwhile,
55
their judgment of the country’s stability over the next five years ticked down
and remained deeply entrenched in pessimistic territory. Lastly, consumers’
willingness to buy big-ticket household items edged down, although remained
50 in positive territory.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect private

45 consumption to grow 3.3% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from
last month’s forecast, and also 3.3% in 2020
40
May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 OUTLOOK | Business confidence edges down in May
The business confidence index (IMCE), published by ICARE and the Adolfo
Note: Consumer confidence index (IPEC, Indice de percepcion de la economia).
Values above 50 indicate an optimistic assesment in consumer sentiment while Ibáñez University, deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month in May,
values below 50 indicate a pessimistic assesment.
Source: Adimark GfK.
landing at 50.6 points (April: 52.1 points). Nevertheless, the index remained
above the crucial 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism
among Chilean businesses.
Notably, sentiment in the construction sector turned pessimistic in May, while

sentiment in the industrial sector dipped further down into negative territory.
Business Confidence Meanwhile, confidence in the commercial sector deteriorated albeit remained
60 positive. In contrast, optimism in the mining sector rose to an eight-month
high.
55
Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expected fixed

50
investment to expand 4.7% in 2019, which is down 0.7 percentage points
from last month’s forecast, and 4.5% in 2020.
45
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation speeds up in May
Consumer prices rose 0.6% month-on-month in May (April: +0.3% mom), the
40
May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 fastest monthly increase in almost two years. According to Chile’s Statistical
Note: Business Confidence Index (IMCE, Indicador Mensual de Confianza
Institute (INE), May’s print largely reflected higher prices for housing, and
Empresarial). Values above 50 indicate optimistic perception, below 50 indicate recreation and culture. Meanwhile, core consumer prices rose 0.4% month-
negative perception.
Source: Universidad Adolfo Ibañez / ICARE. on-month (April: +0.1% mom).
Inflation came in at 2.3% in May, accelerating from April’s 2.0% result, thus
rising closer to the midpoint of the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target rate. In
addition, core inflation edged up to 2.0% (April: 1.9%).
Annual average inflation clocked in at 2.4%, unchanged from April’s result.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index The Central Bank projects year-end inflation of 2.8% in 2019 and of 2.9% in
1.0 4 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to end
2019 at 2.7%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. The panel see
inflation ending 2020 at 2.9%.
0.5 3
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank unexpectedly slashes policy rate

% %
in June
0.0 2 At its 7 June monetary policy meeting, the board of the Central Bank of Chile
(BCCh) voted unanimously to cut the key policy rate by 50 basis points to
2.50%, marking the sharpest reduction in a decade, amid softer-than-expected
-0.5
1
inflation and lackluster growth in the first quarter. The decision surprised
analysts, who had expected the rate to remain unchanged.
Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Chile National Statistical Institute (INE).
Weaker-than-expected first-quarter national accounts data, which revealed
that the current rate of growth had dragged on price pressures since the start of
the year, prompted the decision to lower rates. Moreover, the board remarked

that a more challenging external backdrop tilted risks to the downside, thus
requiring a more expansive monetary policy to buffer any slowdown and
Monetary Policy Rate | in % ensure that inflation converges at the 3.0% target level in the near-term.
4.0
Looking ahead, the board struck a largely wait-and-see approach, stating

3.5
that “if the baseline scenario materializes, this change in the MPR will suffice
to ensure the convergence of inflation to the target”. It also remarked that it
intends to tighten the policy rate when there are more clear signs that inflation
3.0
is on track to reach its target. Notably, it will continue to evaluate the effects
of immigration on the labor market, the response from investment and the
2.5 impact of the U.S.-China trade spat on external demand.
2.0 The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 17-18 July.
Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists are still assessing the Bank’s

Note: Monetary Policy Rate (TPM, Tasa de Política Monetaria) in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh) decision. The current consensus is for the policy rate to increase gradually
going forward, ending 2019 at 3.04% and 2020 at 3.43%.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Copper prices plummet in May

Copper prices sank to a four-month low in May, as reignited U.S.–China trade
tensions roiled commodity markets. Average prices for the red metal clocked
in at USD 2.73 per pound in May (equivalent to USD 6,023 per ton), falling
from April’s average price of USD 2.92. Moreover, copper prices were 11.8%
lower than in the same month last year. On a year-to-date basis, however,
copper prices were up by 1.49%.
Copper Price | USD per Lb.
3.5 In May, copper lost nearly all of this year’s gains after President Donald Trump
wrongfooted analysts by unexpectedly raising tariffs from 10% to 25% on USD
3.0 200 billion of Chinese goods at the start of the month, heightening anxieties
over a slowdown in China’s industrial sector. In addition, a plunge of the
2.5
renminbi against the USD weighed on Chinese demand for the metal, putting
further downward pressure on prices as China accounts for almost half of the
2.0
world’s demand for copper.
On the other hand, supply-side headwinds likely buffered the downturn

1.5
May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 and should support prices in the near-term. In Chile, three unions from the
Note: Cash seller and settlement price. Chuquicamata mine, ran by the state-owned copper giant Codelco, voted by
Source: London Metal Exchange (LME).
a large majority on 27 May to go on strike if a last round of negotiations,
scheduled for 6 June, fails. Meanwhile, constraints at Peru’s Las Bambas
mine are set to continue, after talks over pay between the local community
and Chinese miner MMG collapsed at the end of May. Lastly, power shortages
and a change in the tax law in Zambia are also seen tightening supply of the
red metal ahead.
Our panelists expect copper prices to end 2019 at USD 2.88 per pound and
2020 at USD 2.95 per pound.

Annual Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 261 246 250 279 298 299 321 342 359 377
GDP (CLP bn) 148,599 159,553 169,470 180,211 191,249 201,634 213,812 226,778 240,521 255,086
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -0.5 2.5 1.8 2.9 4.7 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.9
Total Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.9 2.6 3.4 3.2 3.7 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.8 4.8 7.2 4.4 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.3 -1.7 0.5 -1.1 5.0 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -6.5 -1.1 0.9 4.7 7.6 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) -1.2 0.6 0.2 -1.0 2.6 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6
Supermarket Sales (ann. var. %) 2.8 1.8 1.6 2.1 3.1 2.3 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.4
Monetary Policy Rate (in %, eop) 3.00 3.50 3.50 2.50 2.75 3.04 3.43 3.61 3.83 4.06
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 607 709 670 615 694 670 661 666 673 680
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, aop) 571 655 676 649 642 675 666 664 670 677
External Sector
Copper Price (USD per lb, aop) 3.11 2.50 2.21 2.80 2.96 2.88 2.95 3.12 3.24 3.36
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.1 1.3 0.0 - - - - - - -
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) -0.4 2.9 1.6 0.9 4.1 2.5 - - - -
Supermarket Sales (ann. var. %) 3.2 1.0 0.2 2.4 3.3 3.3 - - - -
Monetary Policy Rate (in %, eop) 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.02 3.04 3.06 3.19 3.36 3.43
Economic Activity (IMACEC, ann. var. %) 2.7 2.1 4.4 3.3 3.1 1.8 1.1 1.8 2.1 -
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) 4.2 -5.0 9.4 -3.1 2.7 2.6 0.8 1.4 -1.4 -
Unemployment (rolling quarters, % act. pop.) 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.9 -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 47.0 46.1 46.7 44.9 44.6 47.0 46.3 42.3 43.2 40.7
Business Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 50.8 54.8 53.6 49.0 48.8 50.7 54.2 54.0 52.1 50.6
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.6
Copper Price (USD per lb, aop) 2.75 2.74 2.82 2.81 2.75 2.69 2.86 2.92 2.92 2.73
Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2023 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 16-Q4 20 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

Banchile Inversiones 3.2 3.3
4 BCI 2.9 3.4
BICE Inversiones 2.7 3.7
2 BNP Paribas 3.6 3.2
BTG Pactual 3.1 3.6
0 Cámara Com. Santiago 3.4 -
Chile Chile Citigroup Global Mkts 3.2 3.5
Latin America Latin America CorpResearch 3.0 3.2
World World
-4 -2 Credicorp Capital 3.0 3.3
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Credit Agricole 3.4 3.2
3 | GDP 2019 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts DekaBank 3.3 3.0
5 5
Maximum
EIU 3.0 3.2
Consensus Euromonitor Int. 3.5 3.2
Minimum
4 4 Fynsa 2.9 3.2
Gemines 3.0 3.5
3 3
HSBC 3.5 3.2
Inversiones Security 3.0 3.5
Itaú BBA 3.0 3.5
2 2
JPMorgan 3.1 2.9
Maximum
Consensus Julius Baer 3.0 2.5
Minimum Kiel Institute 2.8 2.8
1 1
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Moody's Analytics 3.1 3.0
Nomura 3.4 3.2
5 | GDP 2019 | Panelist Distribution Pezco Economics 3.0 2.4
Santander 3.0 3.2
75% Scotiabank 3.2 3.2
UBS 3.8 3.5
Summary
45%
Minimum 2.2 1.8
Maximum 3.8 3.7
30% Median 3.0 3.2
Consensus 3.1 3.1
15%
History
30 days ago 3.2 3.1
60 days ago 3.2 3.2
0%
<1.7 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.2 >5.2
90 days ago 3.3 3.1
Central Bank (Jun. 2019) 2.8-3.5 3.0-4.0
IMF (Apr. 2019) 3.4 3.2
CAF (May. 2019) 2.8 3.0
Notes and sources
General:
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco
Central de Chile). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.


12
9
Banchile Inversiones 3.3 3.5 6.0 5.2
Barclays Capital - - 5.5 7.5
BCI 3.0 3.4 4.8 4.9 6
BICE Inversiones 3.8 4.6 4.3 7.3
BTG Pactual 3.2 3.6 6.0 3.9 3
Cámara Com. Santiago 3.3 - 5.3 -
0
CorpResearch 2.8 3.2 5.1 4.6 Chile
Credicorp Capital 3.1 3.4 5.5 5.0 Latin America
DuckerFrontier 3.2 3.3 - - -3
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EIU 3.5 3.6 5.0 4.0
Fynsa 3.3 3.5 3.2 4.2 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Gemines 3.7 3.1 3.0 3.8
3.6
HSBC 3.3 3.5 5.0 5.5
Inversiones Security 3.2 3.9 4.0 5.0
Moody's Analytics 3.0 2.2 3.3 2.8
3.4
Pezco Economics - - 5.0 4.1
Santander 3.4 3.4 5.4 4.8
Scotiabank 2.8 3.0 8.0 4.5 3.2
Société Générale 2.8 2.2 2.5 1.2
UBS 3.8 3.6 4.9 5.0 2019 2020
Summary
Minimum 2.8 2.2 2.5 1.2 3.0
Maximum 3.8 4.6 8.0 7.5 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
Median 3.3 3.4 4.9 4.6
Consensus 3.3 3.3 4.7 4.5
History
30 days ago 3.4 3.3 5.4 4.6
60 days ago 3.4 3.3 5.3 4.4 30
90 days ago 3.4 3.3 5.3 4.3 Chile
Latin America
15
-15
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
5.5
2019 2020
5.0
4.5
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes 4.0
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based on
3.5
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.

10 | Unemployment | % of active pop. Unemployment, Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
11
Unemployment Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of active pop. % of GDP % of GDP
Banchile Inversiones 6.9 6.7 - - - -
9 Barclays Capital - - -1.4 -1.2 25.5 25.7
BCI - - -2.0 -1.8 - -
BICE Inversiones 7.1 7.0 - - - -
BNP Paribas - - -2.0 -1.8 26.7 27.5
7 BTG Pactual 6.8 6.6 -1.8 -1.5 27.0 27.1
Cámara Com. Santiago 6.7 - -1.8 - - -
Chile Capital Economics 7.5 7.0 -1.6 -1.3 27.0 29.0
Latin America Citigroup Global Mkts 7.0 7.0 -1.8 -1.7 - -
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CorpResearch - - -1.9 -1.6 - -
Credicorp Capital 6.9 6.7 -1.7 -1.4 26.7 27.0
Credit Suisse 6.8 6.6 -1.9 -1.8 26.4 27.1
DekaBank - - -1.5 -1.5 - -
11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP DuckerFrontier 6.6 6.4 - - - -
EIU 6.4 7.2 -1.4 -1.4 25.8 26.0
8
Euromonitor Int. 6.9 6.5 - - - -
Fitch Solutions - - - - 27.2 29.0
4
Fynsa 7.1 6.8 -1.4 -1.1 27.5 26.2
Gemines 7.1 7.1 -1.7 -1.4 27.8 28.1
Goldman Sachs - - -1.5 -1.3 26.0 26.1
0 HSBC - - -1.7 -1.6 - -
Inversiones Security 7.2 7.2 -1.7 -1.5 25.7 -
Itaú BBA 6.9 6.7 -1.8 -1.6 - -
-4 JPMorgan - - -1.7 -1.5 - -
Chile Moody's Analytics 7.1 7.2 -1.7 -1.5 27.8 29.9
Latin America Nomura - - -1.8 -1.5 - -
-8 Oxford Economics 6.6 6.5 -1.6 -1.4 25.8 26.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Pezco Economics - - -2.0 -2.1 26.1 26.3
Santander 6.8 6.7 -2.0 -1.7 25.6 26.2
Scotiabank 6.8 6.5 -1.7 -1.5 26.5 27.0
12 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts Société Générale 6.9 7.0 -2.0 -2.3 - -
UBS 6.8 7.2 -1.8 -1.5 28.9 31.8
-1.2 Summary
Minimum 6.4 6.4 -2.0 -2.3 25.5 25.7
2019 2020 Maximum 7.5 7.2 -1.4 -1.1 28.9 31.8
-1.5 Median 6.9 6.8 -1.7 -1.5 26.6 27.0
Consensus 6.9 6.8 -1.7 -1.6 26.7 27.4
History
-1.8 30 days ago 6.8 6.8 -1.7 -1.5 26.5 27.3
60 days ago 6.9 6.8 -1.7 -1.5 26.3 27.2
90 days ago 6.9 6.7 -1.7 -1.5 26.4 27.3
-2.1
-2.4
13 | Public Debt | % of GDP
30
20
Notes and sources

10
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela.
All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas) and DIPRES (Dirección
de Presupuestos). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
0 10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 11 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: DIPRES.
12 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
13 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: DIPRES.


Banchile Inversiones 2.7 3.0 - -
Barclays Capital 2.7 2.8 - - 5
BCI 2.8 3.0 - -
BICE Inversiones 2.8 2.7 - -
BTG Pactual 2.8 3.0 2.2 3.0 0
Chile
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.7 3.0 2.2 2.9 Latin America
CorpResearch 2.5 3.0 - - -5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Credicorp Capital 2.6 3.0 2.2 2.7
EIU 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.7 12
Chile
Fitch Solutions 2.8 2.7 - - Latin America
9
Fynsa 3.0 3.0 2.3 3.1
Gemines 2.7 3.1 2.3 2.8
6
HSBC 2.4 3.0 2.5 2.7
Itaú BBA 2.8 2.9 - -
3
JPMorgan 2.8 2.9 2.1 3.1
0
Moody's Analytics 2.3 2.4 - - Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Nomura 2.3 3.0 - -
Santander 2.6 2.9 2.2 2.9
Scotiabank 2.8 3.0 2.2 3.0
4.5
Société Générale - - 2.4 3.0 Maximum
Standard Chartered - - 2.3 2.9 Consensus
4.0 Minimum
UBS 2.7 2.9 2.2 2.9
Summary
Minimum 2.3 2.4 2.0 2.6 3.5
Maximum 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.3
Median 2.7 3.0 2.3 2.9
3.0
Consensus 2.7 2.9 2.3 2.9
History
30 days ago 2.7 2.9 2.3 2.9 2.5
60 days ago 2.7 2.9 2.4 3.0

90 days ago 2.8 3.0 2.7 3.0 2.0
Additional Forecasts Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
Central Bank (Jun. 2019) 2.8 2.9 2.0 2.9

IMF (Apr. 2019) 2.7 3.0 - -
CAF (May. 2019) 2.5 3.0 - - 17 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
4.0
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
3.5
3.0
Notes and sources
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical 2.5
Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
2.0

Chile Chile
Banchile Inversiones 3.00 3.50
12 BCI 3.00 3.50
10 BICE Inversiones 3.00 3.25
BTG Pactual 3.00 3.75
8 Cámara Com. Santiago 3.00 -
6 Citigroup Global Mkts 3.00 3.50
4 CorpResearch 3.00 3.00
Credicorp Capital 3.25 3.75
0 2 Fitch Solutions 3.25 3.75
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Fynsa 3.00 3.00
Gemines 3.25 3.75
20 | Int. Rate 2019 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst Goldman Sachs 3.00 3.50
HSBC 3.00 3.00
5 5
Inversiones Security 3.00 3.00
Itaú BBA 3.00 3.50
JPMorgan 2.50 -
4 4
Santander 3.00 3.25
3 3
UBS 3.25 3.50
Maximum Maximum Summary
Consensus Minimum
Consensus 2.50 3.00
Minimum Minimum
Maximum 3.25 4.00
2 2
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Median 3.00 3.50
Consensus 3.04 3.43
History
22 | Interest Rate 2019 | Panelist Distribution 30 days ago 3.15 3.59
60 days ago 3.24 3.68
75%
90 days ago 3.46 3.87
60%
45%
30%
15%
0%
<2.3 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 >4.0
Notes and sources
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco
Central de Chile). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD Exchange Rate | CLP per USD
Banchile Inversiones 640 620
Barclays Capital 680 680
690 BCI 660 640
650 BICE Inversiones 640 618
BNP Paribas 695 698
660 BTG Pactual 654 650
Cámara Com. Santiago 700 -
550 Capital Economics 700 680
630 Citigroup Global Mkts 688 667
Credicorp Capital 650 640
Credit Suisse 690 715
450 600
EIU 653 662
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Fitch Solutions 620 648
Fynsa 660 640
25 | CLP per USD 2019 | evol. of fcst 26 | CLP per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst Gemines 640 646
Goldman Sachs 667 600
800 800
Maximum Maximum HSBC 650 700
Consensus Consensus Inversiones Security 675 650
Minimum Minimum Itaú BBA 670 665
JPMorgan 720 -
700 700
Moody's Analytics 657 657
Nomura 700 680
Oxford Economics 640 618
Pezco Economics 670 700
600 600
Santander 680 667
Scotiabank 650 640
Société Générale 720 -
Standard Chartered 740 775
500 500
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr UBS 630 630
Summary
Minimum 620 600
27 | CLP per USD 2019 | Panelist Distribution Maximum 740 775
Median 667 654
60%
Consensus 670 661
History
30 days ago 663 661
45%
60 days ago 663 656
90 days ago 664 657
30%
15%
0%
<520 560 600 640 680 720 760 800 >800
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
25 Exchange rate, evolution of 2019 forecast during the last 18 months.


% of GDP USD bn
Barclays Capital -2.8 -3.5 5.4 2.8 3
BCI -2.9 -2.8 - -
BICE Inversiones -2.2 -1.5 - -
BNP Paribas -3.0 -2.7 - - 0
BTG Pactual -2.9 -2.4 5.6 5.0
Cámara Com. Santiago -2.7 - 4.4 -
Capital Economics -3.5 -3.0 - - -3
Citigroup Global Mkts -3.8 -3.7 - -
Chile
CorpResearch -2.8 -2.5 5.0 5.5 Latin America
Credicorp Capital -2.4 -2.4 3.0 4.5 -6
Credit Agricole -2.5 -2.3 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
DekaBank -2.8 -1.6 - -
EIU -2.5 -1.6 4.2 6.1 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Euromonitor Int. -2.8 -2.6 3.1 4.6
Fitch Solutions -2.8 -1.9 5.5 8.2 -1.2
Fynsa -3.0 -2.3 2.3 5.0
Gemines -3.1 -3.5 4.0 3.0
Goldman Sachs -3.6 -3.5 1.7 0.9 -1.7
HSBC -2.8 -2.8 5.8 5.0
Inversiones Security -2.0 -2.6 6.4 5.0
Itaú BBA -3.0 -2.8 - - -2.2
JPMorgan -3.3 -3.2 5.6 4.1

Nomura - - 4.1 4.3 -2.7
Oxford Economics -2.4 -2.6 4.5 2.0 2019 2020
Santander -3.5 -3.4 3.0 2.4

-3.2
Scotiabank -3.2 -3.3 - -
UBS -2.9 -2.6 4.7 5.2
30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Summary
Minimum -3.8 -3.7 1.7 0.9 120
Trade Balance
Maximum -2.0 -1.5 6.4 8.2
Exports
Median -2.9 -2.6 4.4 4.6 Imports
Consensus -2.9 -2.7 4.3 4.3 90
History
30 days ago -3.0 -2.7 4.5 4.5
60 days ago -2.8 -2.5 4.6 4.5 60
90 days ago -2.5 -2.3 5.2 5.2
30
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
10
Notes and sources

6
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2019 2020
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr


Exports Imports 60
USD bn USD bn Chile
BTG Pactual 78.2 82.2 72.7 77.2 30
CorpResearch 74.0 76.5 69.0 71.0
EIU 77.2 81.4 73.0 75.3 0
Euromonitor Int. 77.0 82.3 74.0 77.7
Fynsa 76.2 82.7 73.9 77.7
Gemines 75.0 80.0 71.0 77.0 -30
Goldman Sachs 74.2 75.9 72.5 75.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
HSBC 80.8 82.4 75.0 77.4
JPMorgan 78.6 78.6 73.0 74.5 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Nomura 77.0 80.8 72.9 76.5
Santander 77.0 80.9 74.0 78.5
UBS 77.0 80.9 72.3 75.7
Summary
Minimum 74.0 75.9 69.0 71.0 82
Maximum 80.8 83.2 75.0 80.0

Median 77.0 80.9 72.8 77.0
Consensus 77.0 80.7 72.7 76.4
History 78
30 days ago 77.4 81.5 73.0 77.0

60 days ago 78.2 82.1 73.7 77.5 2019 2020
90 days ago 79.2 82.9 74.0 77.7

74
40
20
-20
Chile
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
80
75
Notes and sources

70
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based 2019 2020
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.


USD bn USD bn Chile
Barclays Capital 40.8 41.8 184 210 10

BNP Paribas 39.9 40.5 - -
Credicorp Capital 40.0 41.0 192 207 8
Credit Suisse 40.7 41.5 188 192
EIU 38.2 39.2 189 194
Euromonitor Int. 40.4 42.1 - - 6
Fynsa 40.0 40.0 - -
Gemines 40.0 40.0 193 201 4
Goldman Sachs 42.6 42.6 193 199 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
HSBC 38.7 38.7 - -
Inversiones Security 38.7 38.0 187 190
Itaú BBA 41.1 42.3 - - 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
UBS 41.2 44.8 194 203 44
Summary
Minimum 38.2 38.0 184 190
Maximum 43.5 48.5 194 212
Median 40.2 41.3 192 200 42
Consensus 40.4 41.4 190 201

History
30 days ago 40.4 41.4 192 203
60 days ago 40.8 42.0 191 201 40
90 days ago 40.5 41.5 191 199

2019 2020
38
70
Chile
Latin America
50
30
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
215
2019 2020
205
Notes and sources

195
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based

Fact Sheet
General Data Chile in the Region

Official name: Republic of Chile Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Santiago (6.7 m)
Chile Chile
Other cities: Valparaíso (0.9 m) 3.1% 5.7%
Concepción (0.9 m)
Area (km2): 756,102 Other
Population (million, 2018 est.): 18.5 Other 18.0%
25.1%
Population growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 0.8 Brazil
35.0%
Colombia
6.4% Brazil
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 79.1 36.0%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2015): 3.1 Argentina Argentina
7.5%
Language: Spanish 10.4%

8.4%
Time: GMT-3 Mexico Mexico
21.0% 23.5%
Economic Structure
GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 17.7
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 127 100
2008-10 2011-13 2014-16
100
2008-10 2011-13 2014-16

80 80
Energy (2016)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 413 60
Manufacturing
60
Investment

Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 76.1
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 73.2 40 Other Industry 40
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 12.5
Services
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 83.5 Consumption
Transportation (2015) 0 0
Airports: 481
Roadways (km): 77,764 Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Valparaíso, San Antonio Primary markets | share in %
Other Other
6.0%
U.S.A. 9.4%
Political Data 15.3%

U.S.A.
LatAm Brazil 19.3%
President: Sebastián Piñera 15.0% 7.7%

Last elections: 17 December 2017 Japan
11.0%
Next elections: 2021 Korea
5.6% Exports
Other
Imports EU-27
Central Bank President: Mario Marcel Cullell
LatAm
16.1% 14.3%
EU-27

11.3%

Other Asia
China Other Asia ex-Japan
28.4% ex-Japan China 9.3%
7.5% 23.9%
Moody’s: A1 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: A+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: A Stable
Other
Other Food 2.2%
Manufact.
Products 9.0%
Food 14.7%
24.6% Mineral
• Market oriented policy firmly • High dependence on copper Fuels
16.1%
anchored exports

• Structurally sound and prudent • Relatively small domestic Agric. Exports Imports
Raw Mat.
fiscal policy market 6.5%
• Free trade agreements with
Manufact.
major economic areas Ores & Products
Metals 72.7%
• Low import tariffs have created 53.4%
competitive industry .

FOCUSECONOMICS Colombia June 2019
Colombia
Outlook stable
Colombia
• First-quarter growth came in slightly above Q4 2018, thanks to a positive

contribution from inventories countering weakness on the domestic and
external front. Ongoing belt-tightening measures caused government
spending to decelerate, which, along with a fall in fixed investment growth
amid weak business sentiment, eroded the gains from a faster expansion
in private consumption. Meanwhile, exports rose more softly on reduced
oil sales. Going into Q2, the data is mixed. Exports bounced back in
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages April on higher fuel shipments, while the manufacturing PMI returned
2015-17 2018-20 2021-23
to expansionary territory in the first two months. On the downside,
Population (million): 48.7 50.4 51.9 households turned markedly pessimistic in April, boding ill for private
GDP (USD bn): 296 335 397
spending at the outset of the quarter. In other news, Colombia received
GDP growth (%): 2.1 3.0 3.4 mixed signals from credit agencies on the progress of fiscal consolidation
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.5 -2.7 -2.0 efforts: On 23 May, Moody’s upgraded the sovereign outlook to stable,
Inflation (%): 5.6 3.3 3.1 while Fitch Ratings downgraded it to negative.
External Debt (% of GDP) 40.2 40.9 39.7
• Growth is expected to pick up this year, propelled by stronger investment
Nihad Ahmed activity thanks to infrastructure and oil sector projects. Fiscal tightening,
Economist however, is set to weigh on activity, while the external sector is also seen
remaining in the doldrums. Risks stem from uncertainties over the pace
of fiscal reform and the challenging external backdrop. FocusEconomics
panelists expect GDP to grow 3.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.
4 3.5
2019 2020
• Inflation remained at 3.3% in May. A smaller upturn in prices for
3 3.3
accommodation, water and electricity, and transport costs offset higher
price pressures emanating from a weakening peso. Looking ahead,
inflation is expected to remain largely stable this year amid more tepid
3.1
2
private consumption growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect inflation
to end 2019 at 3.3% and 2020 at 3.2%.
1 2.9
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar

• At its 26 April meeting, the Central Bank held the benchmark interest rate
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. stable at 4.25%. Relatively muted price pressures, largely stable inflation
expectations and excess production capacity underpinned the decision.
Most panelists see the Bank gradually hiking rates by the end of the
year, although the Bank’s Governor has hinted at maintaining the current
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts stance. The panel forecasts the policy rate to end 2019 at 4.47% and
12 3.6 2020 at 4.82%.
Colombia Latin America 2019 2020
3.5
9
• On 7 June, the Colombian peso ended the day at 3,269 per USD,
3.4
appreciating 1.0% over the same day of last month. The peso gained
3.3
ground following dovish remarks from the US Federal Reserve and
6
optimism over a US–Mexican deal, which boosted investors’ appetite
3.2
for Latin American currencies. FocusEconomics analysts see the peso
3 3.1 ending 2019 at 3,178 per USD and 2020 at 3,166 per USD.

REAL SECTOR | Economy maintains momentum in Q1

The economy grew 2.8% in annual terms in the first quarter of the year, up
marginally from the fourth quarter’s revised 2.7% growth (previously reported:
+2.8% year-on-year), according to the latest national accounts data released
by the Statistical Institute (DANE) on 22 May. The slight upturn was driven by
a rebound in inventories, which contributed positively to growth and offset a
deterioration in both domestic demand and the external sector.
Domestic demand grew at a weaker pace of 3.2% compared to 4.1% in Q4

2018. Belt-tightening measures caused government spending to expand at
a considerably softer pace, while fixed investment growth moderated on a
contraction in the purchase of dwellings and other buildings (Q1: +2.8% yoy;
Q4: +3.2% yoy). On the flip side, private consumption was up 4.0% (Q4: +3.6%
yoy) as consumers turned more optimistic about their personal finances in
January and March, spurring greater household spending in the quarter.
On the external front, exports of goods and services decelerated in the quarter
(Q1: +3.6% yoy; Q4: +5.7% yoy), reflecting weaker upturns in the overseas
6 sales of petroleum and its byproducts, and carbon. Import growth, meanwhile,
edged down to 13.7% in Q1 from 13.9% in Q4. As a result, the external sector
dragged more severely on growth in the quarter than the previous one.
4
% Looking ahead, the economy should pick up this year on higher restocking
and a surge in investment activity. Overall, however, domestic demand is
2
set to decelerate slightly on a fall in private consumption growth amid rising
unemployment and a slower expansion in government spending due to the
drive towards fiscal consolidation. Moreover, the external sector is expected to
0
Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 remain in the doldrums on a deterioration in export performance. Meanwhile,
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %. challenges linked to the pace of fiscal reform—key to Colombia’s sovereign
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast. debt investment grade credit rating—present uncertainties to the economic
outlook, given the tense dynamics between President Iván Duque and the
deeply-divided Congress.
Credit rating agencies have delivered mixed signals on this front. Moody’s
lifted the outlook on the nation’s credit rating from negative to stable on 24
May, citing that recovering economic activity and current fiscal consolidation
measures should stabilize the debt burden. This was swiftly followed by Fitch
Ratings downgrading the outlook from stable to negative on the same day,
arguing that existing efforts to do so are insufficient given rising risks from
external imbalances.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project that GDP

will expand 3.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For
Industrial Production | variation in %
2020, panelists expect GDP will grow 3.2%.
15 6
10 4
REAL SECTOR | Industrial production accelerates in March
Colombia’s industrial sector gained traction in March, growing 3.2% over the
5 2 same month of last year, according to data released by the country’s National
% % Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) on 15 April. This was up from
0 0 a 2.9% year-on-year expansion in February.
-5 -2
Year-on-year (left scale) Looking at a breakdown of industrial activities, manufacture of pharmaceutical
-10
Annual average variation (right scale)
-4
products and medicinal chemicals was among the fastest growing, along with
the production of soaps and detergents, perfumes and toilet preparations.
Note: Year-on-year changes of industrial production in %. Upturns in these sub-components more than offset sharp contractions in
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and FocusEconomics
calculations. the manufacture of basic chemical substances and their products, and the
preparation of sugar and panela.

Annual average growth in industrial production rose to an over two-year high

of 4.5% in March, from 4.0% in February.
Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expect industrial

production to expand 3.0% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from
last month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel also expects industrial production
to rise 3.0%.
REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI falls in May but remains in

expansionary territory
Business conditions in Colombia’s manufacturing sector improved again
in May but at a softer rate compared to April. The seasonally-adjusted
Purchasing Managers’ Index
Davivienda manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 50.8 from 51.0
55.0
in the previous month, thus remaining above the critical 50-point threshold
separating expansion from contraction. The index moved above the crucial
52.5
mark after a run of losses in Q1, when the index remained below the threshold.
50.0 Output climbed on higher demand and productivity gains, while new orders
rose at a slightly faster rate as some firms expanded their market share and
47.5 launched new products. Despite the upturn in production, employment levels
were unchanged as some firms hired more workers, while others kept their
45.0
payroll numbers stable or saw them decline. On the price front, shortages of
raw materials and a strong U.S. dollar pushed up input costs, which prompted
Note: Davivienda Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Readings above 50 indicate manufactures to raise output prices. Meanwhile, business confidence
an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50 points to a
contraction. regained lost ground after falling to a four-month low in April on projections of
Source: IHS Markit and Davivienda.
stronger demand.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project that

fixed investment will expand 4.1% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage
points from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panelists expect fixed investment
growth to moderate to 3.9%.
OUTLOOK | Consumers turn markedly more pessimistic in April

Consumers turned pessimistic at the start of the second quarter, with the
Consumer Confidence Fedesarrollo consumer confidence index plunging into negative territory
30
in April, as it fell from 1.2 points in March to minus 9.6 points. The index,
thus, moved below the critical zero-point threshold separating optimism from
15
pessimism among consumers, signaling a deterioration in overall sentiment
0 in April.
-15 The latest print was underpinned by an across-the-board decline. Consumers

were significantly more downbeat about both their personal finances and the
-30
general economic conditions over the next twelve months. Moreover, they held
more pessimistic views on their current personal financial situation compared
-45
Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 to a year ago, while their willingness to purchase big-ticket items swung into
Note: Index of consumer sentiment. Values above 0 indicate optimistic negative territory and deteriorated the most among all sub-components.
perception, below 0 indicate negative perception.
Source: Fedesarrollo.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants expect private consumption to
expand 3.4% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s
forecast. For 2020, the panel also expects private consumption to grow 3.4%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation remains steady in May

Consumer prices rose 0.31% over the previous month in May, following a
0.50% month-on-month increase in April. Notably smaller upturns in the prices

Inflation | Consumer Price Index for accommodation, water, electricity and gas, and food and non-alcoholic
0.9 4.4
beverages compared to the previous month lessened the overall upswing.
Inflation came in at 3.3% in May, matching April’s print, thus remaining within
0.6 4.0
the Central Bank’s target band of 3.0% plus or minus 1.0 percentage points.
Meanwhile, annual average inflation inched up to 3.3% in May from 3.2% in
0.3 3.6
April.
% %
0.0 3.2 Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile items including fresh food and
fruit, rose 0.4% over the previous month in April—the latest month for which
-0.3 2.8 data is available—following a 0.3% month-on-month upturn in February.
Lastly, core inflation edged up to 3.3% in April from 3.1% in March.
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of cons. price index in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE).
inflation will end 2019 at 3.3%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
For 2020, the panel expects inflation to end the year at 3.2%.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports return to growth in April

Exports rose 2.2% over the same month of the previous year in April, contrasting
a 0.8% year-on-year drop in March. April’s print was driven by a surge in the
Exports | variation in %
overseas sales of fuels and a mild upturn in manufacturing exports. These
50
more than offset a marked contraction in the exports of farming, food and
beverages products.
25
In March—the latest month for which data is available—imports were up
%
10.0% over the same month of the previous year. This was higher than the
0
7.9% year-on-year expansion in February. Imports of fuels and products of
extractive industries rose more than a third, while manufacturing imports
Year-on-year
increased more than 10%. Upturns in both countered a sizeable fall in the
Annual average
-25 purchases of agricultural produce from abroad.

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in % of export growth. Meanwhile, the trade deficit widened substantially to USD 762 million in
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE).
annual terms in March compared to a USD 363 million shortfall in the same
month last year. It was also larger than the USD 581 million deficit registered
in February.

exports will grow 1.2% in 2019, reaching USD 44.9 billion. Exports are seen
rising 5.9% in 2020 to USD 47.6 billion.

Annual Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 381 293 283 312 331 326 349 372 397 423
GDP (COP tn) 763 805 864 920 978 1,040 1,108 1,180 1,257 1,340
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 9.9 2.8 -2.9 1.9 1.5 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.3 1.7 -0.2 2.5 3.9 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.8 4.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.8 -1.1 -3.5 1.2 7.9 5.7 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.5 2.0 4.1 -0.5 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 8.4 6.4 2.0 -0.1 5.4 3.6 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 9.1 12.5 6.9 7.1 5.0 - - - - -
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 3.4 5.2 6.2 4.9 3.2 - - - - -
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.50 5.75 7.50 4.75 4.25 4.47 4.82 4.67 4.61 4.54
90-day DTF (%, eop) 4.34 5.24 6.92 5.28 4.54 4.70 4.97 4.93 4.86 4.79
Stock Market (ann. var. of IGBC %) -11.0 -26.5 18.2 13.6 -2.9 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 2,389 3,175 3,002 2,985 3,248 3,178 3,166 3,169 3,169 3,170
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop) 2,003 2,749 3,052 2,952 2,958 3,186 3,170 3,168 3,169 3,170
External Sector
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -4.6 -13.5 -9.1 -4.6 -5.2 -7.6 -8.0 -8.4 -8.2 -7.3
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 7.8 -15.4 -16.9 2.3 12.1 6.0 5.8 6.4 6.8 7.2
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.8 0.7 0.0 - - - - - - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 4.8 4.5 3.0 2.2 2.9 3.8 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.1
90-day DTF (%, eop) 4.53 4.54 4.55 4.63 4.67 4.70 4.80 4.90 4.98 4.97
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop) 2,961 3,169 3,136 3,206 3,212 3,190 3,170 3,162 3,172 3,174
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.1 -2.1 -2.0 -1.9 -2.1 -2.9 - - - -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 11.5 11.2 10.3 11.5 11.4 11.3 - - - -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 12.5 13.3 12.2 13.3 13.5 14.2 - - - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 5.5 4.4 7.4 5.8 0.3 2.9 2.9 3.2 - -
Davivienda Colombia Manufacturing PMI 53.3 52.8 52.0 51.6 51.5 48.5 49.5 48.9 51.0 50.8
Unemployment (% of active population) 9.2 9.5 9.1 8.8 9.7 12.8 11.8 10.8 10.3 -
Consumer Confidence Index (0-pt threshold) 4.7 -0.7 -1.3 -19.6 -8.3 -2.8 -5.6 1.2 -9.6 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.12 0.16 0.12 0.12 0.30 0.60 0.57 0.43 0.50 0.31
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 15.4 4.2 15.3 7.8 -14.4 -7.8 6.2 -0.8 2.2 -

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2023 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 16-Q4 20 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
4 Individual Forecasts 2019 2020
10
Colombia ANIF 3.3 3.5
Latin America
World 3 Banco Bradesco 3.1 3.3
Banco Davivienda 3.1 -
6 Banco de Bogotá 3.0 3.5
2 Bancolombia 3.2 3.4
2 BNP Paribas 3.5 3.3
CABI 2.6 2.8
Colombia
Latin America Citigroup Global Mkts 3.1 3.5
World Corficolombiana 3.2 3.5
-2 -1
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Credicorp Capital 3.3 3.2
Credit Agricole 3.3 3.3
3 | GDP 2019 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts Credit Suisse 3.1 3.3
DekaBank 3.1 2.9
4 5 DuckerFrontier 3.0 3.0
Ecoanalítica 3.2 3.4
EIU 3.1 2.9
4 Euromonitor Int. 3.2 3.3
3 Fedesarrollo 3.3 3.5
3 Goldman Sachs 3.0 3.5
HSBC 3.3 3.0
2 Itaú BBA 3.1 3.4
2 JPMorgan 2.8 3.0
Maximum Maximum Julius Baer 3.0 3.0
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum Kiel Institute 2.8 3.2
1 1 Moody's Analytics 3.4 3.4
Nomura 3.5 3.6
5 | GDP 2019 | Panelist Distribution Pezco Economics 3.0 2.7
Polinomics 3.3 3.2
60% Positiva Compañía de Seguros 2.9 3.2
Scotiabank 3.4 3.8
40%
UBS 3.2 3.2
Ultraserfinco 3.3 3.5
Summary
Minimum 2.0 2.0
20%
Maximum 3.5 4.0
Median 3.1 3.3
Consensus 3.1 3.2
0% History
<2.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.7 4.0 >4.0 30 days ago 3.1 3.2
60 days ago 3.1 3.2
90 days ago 3.1 3.2
Ministry of Finance (June 2019) 3.6 4.0
IMF (Apr. 2019) 3.5 3.6
CAF (June 2019) 3.1 3.3
Notes and sources
General:
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
(DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.


8
ANIF 3.6 3.8 2.7 3.2 6
Banco Davivienda 3.6 - - -
Banco de Bogotá 3.4 - - - 4
Bancolombia 3.1 - - -
2
BBVA Research 3.4 3.6 2.9 4.0
Corficolombiana 3.4 - 4.0 - 0
Colombia
Credicorp Capital 3.7 3.4 - -
Latin America
Credit Suisse 2.9 2.9 5.6 4.0 -2
DuckerFrontier 3.0 3.1 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Ecoanalítica 3.4 3.6 - -
EIU 3.3 3.0 3.5 3.9
Euromonitor Int. 3.2 3.3 - - 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Fedesarrollo 4.0 4.3 - -
3.6
Goldman Sachs 4.5 3.8 0.5 2.4 2019 2020
HSBC 3.5 3.2 3.6 3.5

3.4
Société Générale 3.2 2.2 4.0 1.9 3.2
UBS 3.0 2.9 4.5 4.6
Ultraserfinco 3.5 3.6 5.6 5.9
Summary 3.0
Minimum 2.6 2.2 0.5 1.9
Maximum 4.5 4.3 7.5 5.9
Median 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.0 2.8
Consensus 3.4 3.4 4.1 3.9 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
History
30 days ago 3.3 3.4 4.5 4.0
60 days ago 3.3 3.4 4.4 4.1 8 | Investment | variation in %
90 days ago 3.3 3.3 4.4 4.0
20
Colombia
Latin America
10
-10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
5.0
2019 2020
4.5
Notes and sources

4.0
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo
Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. 3.5

15 Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance

10
ANIF 2.7 2.8 9.4 9.4 -2.7 -2.3
Banco Davivienda 4.3 - - - -2.5 -
5 Banco de Bogotá 3.2 - - - -2.7 -2.3
Bancolombia 3.7 - 10.8 10.6 -2.7 -2.5
0
BBVA Research 3.0 3.7 10.6 10.5 -2.7 -2.3
BNP Paribas - - - - -2.4 -2.6
-5 CABI - - - - -3.0 -3.0
-10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Corficolombiana - - - - -2.7 -
Credicorp Capital - - 9.6 9.5 -2.6 -2.4
Credit Suisse - - 10.5 10.5 -2.5 -2.2
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts DekaBank - - - - -2.0 -2.1
DuckerFrontier 3.2 3.4 9.9 9.6 - -
3.4
Ecoanalítica - - 9.9 9.3 -2.9 -2.6
2019 2020
EIU 2.6 2.2 9.8 10.0 -2.0 -2.1
3.2 Euromonitor Int. 2.6 1.7 10.1 9.6 - -
Fedesarrollo 2.5 2.4 - - -3.2 -3.4
Fitch Solutions - - - - -2.7 -2.3
3.0
Goldman Sachs - - - - -2.7 -2.3
HSBC 2.6 3.6 - - -2.0 -2.5
2.8 Itaú BBA - - 9.8 9.5 -2.8 -2.3
JPMorgan - - - - -2.7 -2.5
2.6 Moody's Analytics 2.1 3.5 10.3 10.0 - -
Nomura - - - - -2.7 -2.4
Oxford Economics 3.9 3.4 9.8 8.8 -2.7 -2.4
2.4
Pezco Economics - - - - -2.5 -2.7
UBS 2.8 3.2 9.3 9.0 -2.6 -2.2
Ultraserfinco - - 10.4 10.0 -2.9 -2.6
Summary
25
Minimum 2.1 1.7 9.3 8.8 -3.2 -3.4
Colombia Maximum 4.3 3.7 11.0 10.6 -2.0 -1.2
Latin America Median 2.8 3.3 10.1 10.0 -2.7 -2.3
20
Consensus 3.0 3.0 10.1 9.8 -2.6 -2.4
History
30 days ago 2.9 3.0 9.9 9.6 -2.6 -2.3
15
60 days ago 2.9 3.0 9.7 9.5 -2.6 -2.3
90 days ago 3.0 3.0 9.5 9.3 -2.5 -2.3
10
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
Colombia
Latin America
-2
Notes and sources

-4 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela.
All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística)
and the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.
10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: DANE.
-6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 11 Industrial production, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: DANE.
13 Central government balance as % of GDP. Source: BanRep.

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in % 14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2023 | in %

ANIF 3.5 3.4 - - 8
Banco Davivienda 3.1 - 3.3 -
Banco de Bogotá 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.0
6
Bancolombia 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.5
BBVA Research 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.0 4
CABI 3.5 4.3 - -
Capital Economics - - 3.6 3.8 2
Citigroup Global Mkts 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.2 Colombia Latin America
Corficolombiana 3.4 - - -
0
Credicorp Capital 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
15
Ecoanalítica 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.2
EIU 3.4 2.5 3.1 3.0 Colombia Latin America
Fedesarrollo 3.2 3.0 - -
Fitch Solutions 3.4 3.4 - - 10
HSBC 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.6
Itaú BBA 3.2 3.0 - -
JPMorgan 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.6 5
Nomura 3.4 3.2 - -
0
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Polinomics 3.3 3.4 - -
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 3.4 3.4 - -
Scotiabank 3.2 3.1 - - 16 | Inflation 2019 | evolution of fcst
Standard Chartered - - 3.3 3.8 6
Maximum
UBS 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.6
Ultraserfinco 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 Consensus
Summary 5 Minimum
Minimum 3.0 2.5 2.9 2.9
Maximum 3.6 4.3 3.6 3.8
Median 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2
4
Consensus 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3
History
30 days ago 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2
60 days ago 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3
90 days ago 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.3
Ministry of Finance (June 2019) 3.2 3.0 3.3 - 2
CAF (June 2019) 3.3 3.1 - - Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
IMF (Apr. 2019) 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.2

5 Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Notes and sources

3
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical
Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts are based on

Colombia ANIF 4.75 5.25
Latin America Banco Davivienda 4.50 -
15 Banco de Bogotá 4.25 4.75
10 Bancolombia 4.25 4.75
5 Corficolombiana 4.25 -
Colombia Credicorp Capital 4.50 5.00
Latin America
Ecoanalítica 4.25 4.75
0 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Fitch Solutions 4.75 5.00
20 | Int. Rate 2019 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst
HSBC 4.25 4.25
Itaú BBA 4.25 4.25
7 7
Maximum Maximum JPMorgan 4.25 -
Consensus Consensus Oxford Economics 4.25 4.50
Minimum Minimum Pezco Economics 4.50 4.75
6 6
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 4.50 4.50
5 5 UBS 4.25 5.00
Ultraserfinco 4.75 -
Summary
4 4 Minimum 4.25 4.25
Maximum 5.00 5.25
Median 4.50 4.75
3 3 Consensus 4.47 4.82
History
30 days ago 4.50 4.83
22 | Interest Rate 2019 | Panelist Distribution 60 days ago 4.60 4.87
90 days ago 4.78 4.98
60%
40%
20%
0%
<3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.50 >5.50
Notes and sources
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BanRep,
Banco de la República). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD Exchange Rate | COP per USD
3,500 3,300 Individual Forecasts 2019 2020
Banco Davivienda 3,170 -
Banco de Bogotá 3,200 3,231
3,000 Bancolombia 3,170 3,240
3,100 Barclays Capital 3,306 3,438
BBVA Research 3,210 3,120
2,500 BNP Paribas 3,021 2,922
CABI 3,245 3,200
2,900 Capital Economics 3,650 3,400
2,000 Citigroup Global Mkts 3,128 3,065
Corficolombiana 3,075 -
Credicorp Capital 3,000 2,900
1,500 2,700 Credit Suisse 3,000 3,100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Ecoanalítica 3,290 3,271
EIU 3,099 3,062
25 | COP per USD 2019 | evol. of fcst 26 | COP per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst
Fitch Solutions 3,105 3,158
Goldman Sachs 2,950 2,800
4,000 3,600
Maximum Maximum HSBC 3,095 3,300
Consensus Consensus Itaú BBA 3,245 3,250
Minimum Minimum JPMorgan 3,400 -
3,300 Moody's Analytics 3,218 3,270
3,500 Nomura 3,300 3,200
Oxford Economics 3,114 3,050
3,000 Pezco Economics 3,090 3,200
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 3,200 3,100
3,000 Scotiabank 3,120 3,167
2,700 Société Générale 3,435 -
Standard Chartered 3,000 3,200
UBS 3,300 3,350
2,500 2,400 Ultraserfinco 3,030 -
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Summary
Minimum 2,950 2,800
27 | COP per USD 2019 | Panelist Distribution Maximum 3,650 3,438
Median 3,170 3,200
80% Consensus 3,178 3,166
History
30 days ago 3,138 3,164
60% 60 days ago 3,141 3,125
90 days ago 3,121 3,134
40%
20%
0%
<2250 2,500 2,750 3,000 3,250 3,500 3,750 4,000 >4000
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn
0
ANIF -3.9 -3.9 -6.2 -6.5
Banco Davivienda -3.9 - -7.9 -
Banco de Bogotá -4.2 - - - -2
Bancolombia -4.2 -4.3 -12.6 -
Barclays Capital -3.6 -3.1 -5.9 -3.2
-4
BBVA Research -4.3 -4.0 -10.2 -12.4
BNP Paribas -4.0 -3.8 - -
CABI - - -4.0 -4.2 -6
Capital Economics -4.5 -3.5 - - Colombia
Latin America
Citigroup Global Mkts -4.2 -4.4 - - -8
Corficolombiana -3.5 - -4.1 - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Credicorp Capital -4.0 -3.8 -7.8 -8.5
Credit Agricole -4.1 -3.8 - -
Credit Suisse -3.9 -3.6 - - 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
DekaBank -3.5 -3.4 - -
-2.5
EIU -3.5 -3.4 -10.3 -11.2
Euromonitor Int. -4.4 -4.2 -11.1 -11.4
Fedesarrollo -4.2 -4.1 -8.6 -9.4
Fitch Solutions -3.1 -2.9 -5.6 -6.2
-3.0
Goldman Sachs -5.6 -5.2 -9.7 -9.9
HSBC -4.0 -3.7 -6.9 -6.8
Itaú BBA -4.1 -3.9 - -
JPMorgan -4.4 -4.5 -7.5 -9.2
-3.5
Nomura -3.7 -2.8 - -
Oxford Economics -4.0 -3.8 -8.0 -8.0 2019 2020
Société Générale -4.0 -4.0 - - -4.0

Standard Chartered -3.3 -3.6 - - Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
UBS -2.9 -2.8 -3.4 -5.2
Ultraserfinco -4.3 -3.9 - -
Summary 30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Minimum -5.6 -5.2 -12.6 -12.4
80
Maximum -2.9 -2.8 -3.4 -3.2 Trade Balance
Median -4.0 -3.8 -7.8 -8.2 Exports
Consensus -4.0 -3.8 -7.6 -8.0 60 Imports
History
30 days ago -3.9 -3.5 -7.5 -7.8 40
60 days ago -3.8 -3.4 -6.7 -8.0
90 days ago -3.5 -3.1 -6.3 -7.1
20
-20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-4
-5
-6
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). Forecasts -8
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2019 2020


Exports Imports 60
USD bn USD bn
40
ANIF 45.1 46.8 51.3 53.3
Banco Davivienda 43.0 - 50.9 -
Bancolombia 41.3 - 53.9 - 20
BBVA Research 42.3 41.7 52.5 54.1
0
CABI 48.8 51.7 52.8 56.0
Corficolombiana 44.8 - 48.9 -
Credicorp Capital 45.2 46.3 53.0 54.8 -20
EIU 43.7 45.3 54.0 56.5
Euromonitor Int. 44.3 46.3 55.5 57.7
-40
Fedesarrollo 44.3 48.0 52.9 57.4
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Goldman Sachs 45.4 47.4 55.1 57.3
HSBC 45.6 48.3 52.4 55.1 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
JPMorgan 44.4 45.4 51.9 54.6
50
UBS 46.9 48.3 50.3 53.5
Summary 48
Minimum 41.3 41.7 48.9 53.3
Maximum 48.8 52.5 55.5 57.7 46
Median 44.8 47.3 52.6 55.5
Consensus 44.9 47.6 52.6 55.6
44
History
30 days ago 44.7 47.5 52.3 55.3
60 days ago 44.8 47.1 51.5 55.1 42
90 days ago 45.1 47.5 51.5 54.6 2019 2020
40
40
20
-20
Colombia
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
56
2019 2020
54
52
Notes and sources
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). Forecasts
34 Imports, annual variation in %.


USD bn USD bn
ANIF 50.0 51.0 - -
Banco Davivienda 52.4 - - - 10
Banco de Bogotá 53.1 54.0 - -
Barclays Capital 47.8 47.8 128 130
BBVA Research 50.4 53.9 - -
BNP Paribas 48.0 49.0 - - 5
Corficolombiana 47.0 - - - Colombia
Credicorp Capital 50.4 51.5 135 141 Latin America
Credit Suisse 51.9 54.0 135 139 0
Ecoanalítica 49.7 50.9 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EIU 51.7 52.4 135 138
Fitch Solutions 49.3 50.5 131 135 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Goldman Sachs 50.1 52.1 129 145
52
HSBC 47.8 49.8 147 162
Itaú BBA 53.0 57.0 - - 2019 2020
JPMorgan 46.8 46.8 129 131

51
UBS 49.2 50.4 128 131
Summary
50
Minimum 46.8 46.8 128 130
Maximum 53.1 57.0 155 166
Median 50.1 51.0 135 139
49
Consensus 49.8 51.2 136 144
History
30 days ago 49.9 51.3 134 141
48
60 days ago 49.7 50.9 134 139 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
90 days ago 48.8 49.9 134 141
50
Colombia
Latin America
40
30
20
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
155
150
145
Notes and sources 140
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). Forecasts 135

Fact Sheet
General Data Colombia in the Region

Official name: Republic of Colombia Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Bogotá (10.6m)
Other cities: Medellín (3.9m)
Colombia
Cali (2.7m) Colombia
8.4% 6.4%
Area (km2): 1,138,910
Other
Population (million, 2018 est.): 49.8 Other
18.0%
22.8%
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 76.2 Peru
5.7%
Brazil
Brazil
Illiteracy rate (%, 2016 est.): 5.3 5.4% 35.0%
36.0%
Argentina
Language: Spanish Argentina 10.4%
7.5%
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-5
Mexico Mexico
21.0% 23.5%
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 130 100
2008-10 2011-13 2014-16
110
2008-10 2011-13 2014-16

80
80
Energy (2016)
Manufacturing Investment

50
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 68.3 40 Other Industry
Consumption

20
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 357 20 Private
Services
Transportation (2015) 0 -10
Airports: 836
Chief Ports: Cartagena, Buenaventura
Other
Political Data Other
21.2%
11.1%

Brazil
U.S.A.
President: Iván Duque Márquez U.S.A.
31.1%
5.2%
27.4%
Last elections: 17 June 2018

Mexico
7.9%
Next elections: 2022
Panama Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Juan José Echavarría 8.3% Other
LatAm

Agency
Moody’s:
Rating
Baa2
Outlook
Stable 7.6%
S&P Global Ratings: BBB- Stable

EU-27
Fitch Ratings: BBB Negative
Other EU-27 13.2%

China
LatAm 14.0%
18.9% 19.5% Other Asia

Asia ex-
ex-Japan
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Japan
6.5%
8.1%

Moody’s: Baa2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BBB- Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB Negative
Other Food Other

Strengths Weaknesses Food
15.1%
5.2%
10.9% 3.8%
Manufact. Mineral
Fuels
• Plentiful natural resources, • Vulnerability to downward shifts Products
10.0%
22.4%
including coffee, oil and gas, coal, in international commodity prices

gold • Relatively undiversified economy Exports Imports

• Ports on two oceans and large informal sector
• Consolidated financial system • Shortages of skilled labor and
• Thriving tourism sector poor productivity Manufact.
Mineral
Products
• Poverty and high inequality Fuels
75.2%
57.3%

FOCUSECONOMICS Mexico June 2019
Mexico
Mexico
Outlook deteriorates
• Mexico’s economy stumbled into the new year, tripping on a series of one-
off industrial- and services-sector shocks in the first quarter. Moreover,
across-the-board uncertainty hampered activity as trade-related
anxieties and policy ambiguity at the outset of AMLO’s presidency rattled
manufacturing and public-sector services, respectively. Second-quarter
indicators, meanwhile, have fared little better. Deteriorating consumer
confidence and an uptick in the unemployment rate suggest modest gains
in household spending, while downbeat survey-based data point to the
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2015-17 2018-20 2021-23
further pullback of fixed investment and shakier export growth. On 7 June,
Population (million): 122 126 129 U.S. President Donald Trump suspended the so-called immigration tariffs
GDP (USD bn): 1,134 1,263 1,441
that were set to be levied on Mexican imports as of 10 June. The damage
GDP growth (%): 2.8 1.8 2.3 had already been done, however; two of the three credit-rating agencies
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 issued warnings amid mounting concerns over state-owned Pemex and
Inflation (%): 3.8 4.2 3.5 aggravated downside risks to growth.
• U.S. tariffs, if imposed, would devastate the economy. Moreover, the
Christopher Thomas unfolding diplomatic crisis has already shaken USMCA-related certainty
Economist and frightened investors. Policy uncertainty in light of AMLO’s nascent
presidency and flagging oil and gas output, meanwhile, are also expected
to weigh on growth this year. Amid unraveling Mexico-U.S. trade relations,
FocusEconomics analysts lowered their growth forecasts in June. As such,
4 2.7 they now see growth at 1.5% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage
points from May’s forecast, and at 1.8% in 2020.
2.4
3
• Inflation edged down to 4.3% in May (April: 4.4%) amid the slower rise
2.1
in energy costs, landing outside Banxico’s target range of 3.0% plus or
2 minus 1.0 percentage point. Inflation expectations remain elevated but
1.8
could ease somewhat in the months ahead if policy uncertainty fades.
2019 2020
FocusEconomics analysts see inflation falling gradually over the short-
1 1.5
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar term, ending this year at 3.7% and next year at 3.6%.
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months.
• Banxico held the target rate steady at its decade-high of 8.25% on 16
May amid elevated inflation, as well as rising inflation expectations.
Heightened economic uncertainty in recent weeks, coupled with tepid
12 4.0 economic activity since late last year, could push policymakers to begin
2019 2020 lowering the target rate as early as their next monetary policy meeting on
9 27 June. In any event, FocusEconomics analysts expect the target rate
3.8
to fall gradually through the forecast horizon and see it ending 2019 and
6
2020 at 7.92% and 7.14%, respectively.
3.6
3
Mexico • The peso tumbled at the end of May on the announcement of U.S.
Latin America
tariffs but recovered somewhat since. On 7 June, the MXN traded at
0 3.4
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 19.62 per USD, depreciating 3.0% from the same day in May. Looking
variation in %, Q1 2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. ahead, a fraught trade relationship with the U.S. is expected to continue
battering the peso, as will heightened economic and political uncertainty.
FocusEconomics analysts see the peso trading lower in the near-term,
ending this year and next at MXN 20.04 and 20.31 per USD, respectively.

REAL SECTOR | U.S. tariffs averted for now but uncertainty lingers
Mexico and the United States reached a tenuous agreement on 7 June to
avoid crippling U.S.-imposed tariffs on all Mexican imports that had been set
to take effect only days later. The so-called immigration tariffs, threatened by
U.S. President Donald Trump on 30 May in response to the perceived failure
by Mexican authorities to tackle U.S.-bound migration flows, were set to tax
all goods entering the U.S. from Mexico at 5% before increasing stepwise to
25% through October. Although the U.S. eventually shelved its proposal—
only three days before the tariffs were set to take effect on 10 June—in
favor of a deal to curb the flow of migrants reaching the Mexico-U.S. border,
analysts reasoned that much of the damage had already been done. Most
visibly, the heightened level of uncertainty surrounding the Mexico-U.S. trade
relationship despite last year’s United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement
(USMCA) has left the already-ailing economy on even shakier ground; both
Fitch Ratings and Moody’s said as much in their back-to-back ratings calls on
5 June, highlighting the recent deterioration of the macroeconomic outlook
alongside other Pemex-related fiscal anxieties. Moreover, U.S. demands are
expected to strain an already-strained budget as Mexico’s economy absorbs
more of the cost of U.S.-bound migration flows. The gut-punch to economic
sentiment, meanwhile, has all but dashed hopes of a short-term recovery in
investment.
Exchange Rate | MXN per USD Analysts had proceeded with caution in assessing the probable fallout from
22 the U.S.-imposed tariffs, although they had been unanimous that they would
devastate the economy; some had seen them pushing it toward stagflation
and, credibly, even into recession. Although tariffs were dodged in recent
20
days, their threat still looms and additional flare-ups in the Mexico-U.S. trade
relationship are next to inevitable. “We believe the link between immigration
and trade policy cannot be reversed,” noted analysts at Nomura. Expanding
18
on this point, they explained “the fact that immigration is an important political
issue to President Trump means that the risk of some sort of disruption […] will
remain at least through the 2020 [U.S.] elections.” Looking ahead, analysts
16
Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 polled by FocusEconomics expect the recent bout of uncertainty to persist: “If
Note: Daily spot exchange rate of Mexican peso (MXN) against U.S. dollar (USD).
social media is any guide, those in Mexico feel this is more of a postponement
Source: Thomson Reuters. than a cancellation,” argued analysts at ING. Much of our panel agrees. The
uncertainty pushed them to lower their growth forecasts in recent days and
Consensus now sees growth at 1.5% this year, which is down 0.2 percentage
points from last month’s forecast, and at 1.8% next year.
Meanwhile, how recent events could affect the ratification of the USMCA still
remains to be seen. Although the last-minute walkback by the U.S. could
signal that ratification is still on the rails just north of the Rio Grande, a number
of outstanding concerns persist in the U.S. House of Representatives. “House
Democrats maintained a positive attitude toward the agreement last week
despite the threat of tariffs,” commented analysts at Nomura, adding that
Republicans in the House are expected to rally around the U.S. president like
when Section 232 tariffs on “steel and aluminum […] were removed for Mexico
and Canada”. Despite a clearer path toward ratification, however, a number
of analysts remain skeptical that House Democrats will be able to strike a
compromise with the U.S. Trade Representative.
Amid the narrowly-averted diplomatic crisis, the Mexican peso plummeted

before recovering somewhat in the run-up to the tariffs’ suspension. On 7
June, the MXN traded at 19.62 per USD, depreciating 3.0% from the same
day in May. Looking ahead, a fraught trade relationship with the U.S. is
expected to continue battering the peso, as will heightened economic and

political uncertainty. FocusEconomics analysts see the peso trading lower in

the near-term, ending this year and next at MXN 20.04 and 20.31 per USD,
respectively.
REAL SECTOR | Mexico’s economy slows in Q1 on industrial- and

services-sector woes
A comprehensive estimate for growth in the first quarter confirmed on 24 May
weaker-than-expected economic activity at the outset of the year. In annual
terms, unadjusted output grew 1.2% year-on-year (previously reported: +1.3%
year-on-year), down markedly from 1.7% in the fourth quarter of last year and
Gross Domestic Product | variation in % a couple of notches below analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, seasonally-
adjusted quarter-on-quarter output contracted (Q1: -0.2% quarter-on-quarter
4.0
s.a.; Q4 2018: +0.2% qoq s.a.) amid a slump in industrial-sector activity.
For the most part, supply-side dynamics went unaltered from the preliminary
3.0
estimate. Industrial-sector output (Q1: -0.7% yoy; Q4 2018: -0.9% yoy) fell for
the third time in five quarters on declining oil and gas production, as well as
on weaker construction activity amid budget cuts. Services-sector output, on
2.0
the other hand, decelerated considerably (Q1: +1.9% yoy; Q4 2018: +2.7%
% yoy) despite strong wage growth and resilient consumer confidence; analysts
blamed so-called political business cycle. Agricultural-sector output, lastly,
1.0
Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 jumped in the quarter (Q1: +5.8% yoy; Q4 2018: +2.9% yoy).

Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and LatinFocus Consensus Commenting on the first-quarter outturn, Gabriel Lozano, chief economist for
Forecast.
Mexico at JPMorgan, noted:
“Economic data released today did little to change our view on the recent
performance of the economy. […] The main conclusion out of today’s reports
is that momentum in services is not particularly strong, and [industrial
production] remains trapped amidst contractions in oil-production and budget-
related declines in government spending, the latter affecting construction
significantly. […] Recent economic dynamics in the U.S. suggest the little
hope we had for a healthy rebound given the strong links between Mexico
and the U.S. is increasingly unlikely, and if domestic consumption remains
lackluster as well […] we will be running out of options: […] the downside risks
are not negligible.”
Banxico sees growth at 0.8%–1.8% this year and at 1.7%–2.7% next year.
Meanwhile, the LatinFocus panel expects the economy to grow 1.5% in 2019,
which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2020, the
panel sees growth at 1.8%.
Economic Activity | variation in %
6.0 3.5 REAL SECTOR | Economic activity confirms downbeat Q1
Economic activity remained lackluster in March. According to the Statistical
Institute (INEGI), economic activity grew 1.3% year-on-year, up slightly from
3.0 2.5
1.1% in February. March’s outturn was driven by a pick-up in industrial-sector
% %
activity, as well as narrower losses in services-sector activity.
0.0 1.5
Annual average growth in economic activity, meanwhile, ticked up to 1.9%
Year-on-year (left scale) from 1.8% in February.
-3.0 0.5
In seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity fell 0.6% month-on-month
(February: +0.2% month-on-month s.a.).
Note: Year-on-year and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity
in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and FocusEconomics
calculations. Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect
fixed investment to contract 0.6% in 2019, which is down 0.5 percentage

Consumer Confidence points from last month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel sees fixed investment
120
expanding 0.8%.
OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence slips further in May

100 Consumer confidence fell again in May, with the seasonally-adjusted
consumer confidence index published by the Statistical Institute (INEGI)
coming in at 110.0 points, down from 112.8 points in April. By all accounts,
80
May’s reading was still upbeat; the indicator remained comfortably above the
100-point threshold and signaled optimism.
60
Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Broadly, the index was held back by consumers’ growing anxieties over the
state of the economy, although assessments of their personal finances also
Note: Consumer confidence index (ICC, Indicador de Confianza del
Consumidor). January 2003=100. deteriorated from April.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).
Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect

private consumption to grow 2.0% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage
points from last month’s projection. For 2020, the panel sees private
consumption expanding 2.4%.
OUTLOOK | Job losses send manufacturing PMIs lower in May

Manufacturing Index Operating conditions in the manufacturing sector appeared to stagnate—
65
IMEF Manufacturing PMI
or worse—halfway through the second quarter. The seasonally-adjusted
IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI
U.S. Manufacturing Index
manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by the Mexican
60 Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF) fell to 49.4 points in May from
52.0 points in April. As such, the indicator dipped below the 50.0-point
55 threshold—and signaled an output- and employment-driven contraction of the
manufacturing sector. New orders, for their part, slowed from a month earlier.
50
Moreover, the manufacturing PMI produced by IHS Markit ticked lower in
May; it landed at the 50.0-point threshold (April: 50.1 points), suggesting
45
May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 that operating conditions were unchanged from a month earlier. According
Note: Manufacturing ISM Report On Business (PMI) for the U.S., seasonally-
to IHS Markit, marginal gains in output and new orders were offset by lower
adjusted manufacturing index for Mexico and IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI. payroll numbers—which contracted at the fastest pace in the survey’s history.
Readings above 50 indicate an expansion of the manufacturing sector while
readings below 50 indicate a contraction. Optimism, however, touched a three-month high.
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Mexican Institute of
Financial Executives (IMEF, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas) and
IHS Markit.
According to the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel, industrial production
will increase 0.3% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points from
last month’s projection. The panel of analysts surveyed this month by
FocusEconomics sees industrial production expanding 1.3% in 2020.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation dips in May

2 8 Consumer prices decreased 0.29% from a month earlier in May, contrasting
Month-on-month (left scale) the 0.05% month-on-month increase in April. According to the Statistical
Institute (INEGI), lower fuel costs more than offset higher core consumer
1 6
prices (May: +0.16% month-on-month).
% %
Inflation inched down to 4.3% from 4.4% in April; similarly, core inflation slid
0 4
to 3.8% from 3.9%.
Meanwhile, annual average inflation was stable from April at 4.6%.
-1 2
May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Banxico sees inflation ending this year at 3.7% and 2020 at 3.0%. Panelists
surveyed by FocusEconomics expect inflation to end 2019 at 3.7%, which is
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI). unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel sees year-end
inflation at 3.6%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Banxico holds rates in May, maintains cautious

tone
At its 16 May monetary policy meeting, Banxico’s governing board unanimously
voted to leave the target for the overnight interbank interest rate at 8.25%,
Monetary Policy Rate | in % matching analysts’ expectations. The target rate has been on hold at the
10.0 decade high this year after it was hiked twice consecutively in Q4 2018 amid
financial volatility.
8.0
The board’s decision reflected lingering concerns over high price pressures
6.0
in Mexico’s economy. Inflation jumped above Banxico’s target range in April
amid higher core consumer prices and, in its accompanying statement,
policymakers stressed that inflation expectations have increased over both the
4.0
short- and medium-term. This comes despite a weak economic backdrop, with
%
output having contracted on a sequential basis in the first quarter, according
2.0
Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 to early estimates.
Note: Banxico target rate (Tasa objetivo de fondeo bancario) in %.

Source: Mexico Central Bank (Banxico). Looking ahead, Banxico struck a cautious but hawkish tone in their communiqué,
suggesting that rates will likely stay put in the coming months. Although the
Bank recognized the “weak performance” of the Mexican economy in the first
quarter, it stressed upside risks to the price outlook, particularly regarding
the peso, and that “the balance of risks for inflation relative to its forecasted
trajectory still remains to the upside.”
FocusEconomics analysts project that Banxico has reached the end of its
tightening cycle and will either hold rates or begin to gradually unwind its
monetary policy in efforts to stimulate economic activity.
Summarizing JPMorgan’s view, economists Gabriel Lozano and Steven

Palacio noted:
“We think markets should be prepared to see several non-consensus decisions

before the next shift in the policy rate. All in, we continue to expect the first cut
in 1Q20 but we see some risks that rates will be on hold for longer.”
On average, FocusEconomics analysts see the target rate falling to 7.92% by

year-end before falling further to 7.14% by the end of 2020.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | All-important manufacturing exports rebound in

Merchandise Trade April; trade surplus persists
5 12 Merchandise trade recorded a sizable USD 1.4 billion surplus in April,
Exports (yoy, right scale)
contrasting the USD 0.3 billion deficit registered in the same month a year
0 8
ago. Behind the headline was an upturn within the external sector; exports
and imports both rebounded on an annual basis. That said, the result came in
-5 4
%
below the USD 1.5 billion surplus recorded in March.
-10 0
Exports bounced back, rising 6.1% year-on-year (March: -1.2% year-on-year)

-15 -4 on all-important manufacturing exports. For its part, automotive-sector export
growth rose sharply from March. Imports, meanwhile, climbed 1.6% year-
-20 -8
Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 on-year (March: -0.5% year-on-year). Intermediate-good imports—typically
a bellwether for manufacturing output—climbed modestly, as did consumer-
Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the
12-month sum of exports and imports in %. good imports. Capital-good imports, on the other hand, fell sharply.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).
Taken together, the 12-month trailing trade deficit narrowed to USD 12.0
billion from USD 13.7 billion in March.

Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expect merchandise

exports to reach USD 477 billion in 2019. Meanwhile, merchandise imports
Remittances - U.S. Payrolls | variation in % are expected to reach USD 491 billion. For 2020, the panel expects exports
30 2.1 and imports to total USD 507 billion and USD 520 billion, respectively.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Remittances growth retreats in April

15 1.8
Remittances totaled USD 2.9 billion in April (March: USD 2.9 billion), a 3.6%
%
increase from the same month a year ago (March: +7.8% year-on-year). The
average amount remitted edged up to USD 321 from USD 320 a year prior.
0 1.5
Remittances (yoy, left scale)

% Despite continued gains in U.S. non-farm payrolls, remittances growth
-15
U.S. non-farm payrolls (yoy, right scale)
1.2
has pulled back in recent months. That said, in the 12 months up to April,
remittances totaled a record-high of USD 34.0 billion, stable from the USD
34.0 billion totaled in the 12 months up to March. April’s 12-month rolling total
Note: Year-on-year variation of remittances from Mexican workers abroad and
U.S. non-farm payrolls. increased 10.1% from a year earlier (March: +11.0% year-on-year).
Source: Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Analysts expect remittances to remain upbeat this year and to reach USD
35.1 billion in 2019. For 2020, the panel sees remittances at USD 35.8 billion.


Annual Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real Sector
Population (million) 120 121 122 124 125 126 127 128 129 130
GDP (USD bn) 1,312 1,168 1,077 1,158 1,223 1,268 1,298 1,363 1,439 1,520
GDP (MXN bn) 17,474 18,551 20,117 21,897 23,518 24,804 26,201 27,677 29,285 31,040
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 3.1 5.0 1.0 -1.6 0.6 -0.6 0.8 1.7 2.3 3.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.0 8.4 3.7 3.9 5.7 4.0 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.9 5.9 2.9 6.2 6.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 1.1 5.0 5.3 -0.3 1.5 1.7 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.3
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 3.00 3.25 5.75 7.25 8.25 7.92 7.14 6.47 5.90 5.34
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 3.30 3.42 5.84 7.51 8.41 8.22 7.45 7.06 6.66 6.26
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 14.75 17.18 20.73 19.65 19.65 20.04 20.31 20.31 20.38 20.45
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop) 13.31 15.88 18.69 18.91 19.23 19.55 20.18 20.31 20.35 20.42
External Sector
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 4.4 -4.1 -1.7 9.5 10.1 5.9 6.2 7.0 7.5 7.9
Remittances (USD bn) 23.7 24.8 27.0 30.3 33.5 35.1 35.8 37.0 38.2 39.3
International Reserves (USD bn) 193 177 177 173 175 177 181 185 190 194
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.7 0.2 -0.2 - - - - - - -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 0.4 -2.3 -2.3 -1.3 -0.1 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.1 -0.9 -0.7 0.4 0.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.4
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 7.75 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.13 7.92 7.57 7.33 7.20 7.14
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 8.11 8.41 8.52 8.37 8.30 8.22 7.76 7.51 7.50 7.45
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop) 18.94 19.84 19.20 19.48 19.64 19.90 20.07 20.15 20.21 20.27
Economic Activity (IGAE, ann. var. %) 1.8 2.0 2.9 1.8 0.0 1.2 1.1 1.3 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 0.3 1.8 1.0 -1.2 -2.6 -1.0 -1.0 -0.1 - -
Consumer Confidence Index 102.3 100.8 102.3 99.8 107.0 112.6 119.4 115.2 112.8 110.0
IMEF Manufacturing Index (50-pt threshold) 51.3 50.9 50.0 49.8 49.1 50.0 53.8 50.8 52.0 49.4
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.58 0.42 0.52 0.85 0.70 0.09 -0.03 0.39 0.05 -0.29
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 10.1 11.6 12.6 2.9 4.4 6.2 3.8 -1.2 6.1 -
Remittances (ann. var. %) 10.2 9.2 3.6 19.5 6.1 5.8 6.0 7.8 3.6 -

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2023 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 16-Q4 20 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

Mexico
Latin America
American Chamber Mexico 1.6 2.0
World Banamex-Citigroup 1.4 1.9
6
3 BBVA Bancomer 1.4 2.2
CABI 1.5 1.7
0
0 Casa de Bolsa Finamex 1.0 1.6
CEESP 1.6 1.9
-3 Mexico
Latin America
Commerzbank 1.7 2.0
World Credit Agricole 1.6 1.6
-6 -2 Credit Suisse 0.9 2.4
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 D.Econosignal 1.5 1.8
DekaBank 1.2 2.0
3 | GDP 2019 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts DIW Berlin 2.0 1.6
4 4 EIU 1.4 1.7
Fitch Ratings 1.6 2.0
HSBC 1.5 1.8
2 2 IMEF 1.4 1.8
ING 1.3 2.1
Itaú BBA 1.4 1.7
1 1 JPMorgan 1.5 1.7
Maximum Maximum Julius Baer 1.5 1.5
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum Kiel Institute 1.5 2.4
0 0 Monex 1.7 1.8
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Moody's Analytics 1.2 2.0
Nomura 1.6 1.9
5 | GDP 2019 | Panelist Distribution NORD/LB 1.5 1.8
60% Profuturo 1.6 2.3
Prognosis 1.2 1.5
Scotiabank 1.4 1.3
UBS 1.7 1.9
Ve Por Más 1.4 2.0
Vector Casa de Bolsa 1.5 2.2
20% Summary
Minimum 0.9 1.0
Maximum 2.0 2.4
Median 1.5 1.8
Consensus 1.5 1.8
0%
<0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 >2.5 History
30 days ago 1.7 1.9
60 days ago 1.7 1.9
90 days ago 1.8 2.0
Central Bank (May 2019) 0.8-1.8 1.7-2.7
World Bank (Apr. 2019) 1.7 2.0
IMF (Apr. 2019) 1.6 1.9
Notes and sources
General:
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics
and Geography (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.


10
American Chamber Mexico 2.2 2.3 1.1 1.3
5
Banamex-Citigroup 2.0 2.2 - -
Barclays Capital 1.2 2.4 -1.1 2.5
CABI 2.0 2.2 0.0 0.0
0
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 1.9 - 0.0 -
CEESP 2.1 2.3 - -
D.Econosignal 2.0 2.2 0.3 0.8
-5
DuckerFrontier 2.2 2.4 - -
EIU 2.4 2.0 0.3 0.4 Mexico
Euromonitor Int. 2.1 2.5 - - Latin America
-10
Fitch Ratings 1.8 2.4 -0.7 1.5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fitch Solutions 2.5 2.9 -0.5 1.7
HSBC 2.7 2.9 -1.5 0.0 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
JPMorgan 2.1 2.2 -1.0 -0.1
Moody's Analytics 2.2 5.1 -0.7 3.4 3.0
Oxford Economics 1.6 2.2 -0.4 1.1
Profuturo 1.9 2.2 -1.1 1.3
Prognosis 1.9 2.0 -0.2 0.5 2.7
Scotiabank 1.9 1.7 -3.1 -1.2
Société Générale 1.5 1.7 -1.2 -1.5
UBS 2.1 2.4 - - 2.4
Summary
Minimum 1.2 1.4 -3.1 -1.5
Maximum 2.7 5.1 1.1 3.4 2.1
Median 2.0 2.2 -0.5 1.0
2019 2020
Consensus 2.0 2.4 -0.6 0.8
History 1.8
30 days ago 2.1 2.4 -0.1 1.1 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
60 days ago 2.1 2.2 0.3 1.3
90 days ago 2.3 2.4 0.8 1.3
16
-8
Mexico
Latin America
-16
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1
Notes and sources
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional
de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2019 2020
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. -1

10
5 American Chamber Mexico 1.3 1.8 3.4 3.6 -2.2 -2.2
Banamex-Citigroup 1.5 1.9 - - - -
Barclays Capital -0.2 2.3 3.5 3.5 -2.0 -2.5
0 BBVA Bancomer - - - - -2.5 -2.1
CABI - - - - -2.2 -2.4
Capital Economics - - 3.0 3.5 - -
-5 Casa de Bolsa Finamex - - - - -2.5 -2.5
CEESP 1.2 1.9 3.5 3.6 - -
Mexico Credit Suisse - - 3.4 3.5 -1.6 -1.6
Latin America
-10 D.Econosignal -0.2 1.1 3.5 3.9 - -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 DekaBank - - 3.5 4.2 -2.3 -2.9
DIW Berlin - - 4.8 4.8 - -
DuckerFrontier 1.0 1.4 3.8 3.7 - -
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts EIU -0.1 0.9 3.5 3.4 -2.3 -2.3
Euromonitor Int. 1.6 1.4 3.7 4.1 -2.5 -2.8
2.5
Fitch Solutions - - 3.8 3.8 -2.6 -2.9
Goldman Sachs - - - - -2.4 -3.0
2.0 HSBC -0.6 0.0 - - -2.9 -2.9
IMEF - - - - -2.3 -2.5
Itaú BBA - - 3.6 3.7 -2.5 -2.8
1.5
JPMorgan - - 3.6 4.0 -2.1 -2.1
Moody's Analytics 0.1 2.5 3.6 3.8 - -
1.0 Nomura - - - - -2.5 -2.5
NORD/LB - - 3.6 3.8 -2.5 -2.7
0.5
Oxford Economics -0.6 1.2 3.6 3.8 -2.2 -2.3
2019 2020 Profuturo 0.5 1.1 3.4 3.6 -2.4 -2.7
Prognosis -1.0 0.7 3.5 3.8 -2.0 -2.4
0.0 Scotiabank 0.0 0.1 4.2 4.7 -2.2 -2.5
UBS - - 3.5 3.6 - -
Ve Por Más - - 3.5 3.5 - -
Summary
12
Minimum -1.0 0.0 3.0 3.4 -2.9 -3.0
Mexico Maximum 1.6 2.5 4.8 5.1 -1.6 -1.6
Latin America Median 0.1 1.3 3.5 3.8 -2.3 -2.5
10 Consensus 0.3 1.3 3.6 3.9 -2.3 -2.5
History
8 30 days ago 0.7 1.2 3.6 3.9 -2.3 -2.6
60 days ago 0.7 1.3 3.6 3.9 -2.3 -2.6
90 days ago 1.1 1.5 3.6 3.8 -2.4 -2.7
6
2
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2
Mexico
Latin America
-2 Notes and sources
-4
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de
Estadística y Geografía) and the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). See below for details. Forecasts based on
10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INEGI.
-6 11 Industrial production, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEGI.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Banxico.

Consumer Prices 14 | Inflation | 2000-2023 | in %

(ann. var. in %, eop) (ann. var. in %, aop) Mexico
Latin America
American Chamber Mexico 3.6 3.5 4.1 3.8 8
BBVA Bancomer 3.4 3.5 - -
CABI 3.8 3.5 - -
6
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 3.9 3.7 4.1 3.7
Commerzbank - - 3.8 3.6
3.4 3.5 3.9 3.5 4
Credit Suisse
D.Econosignal 3.7 3.6 - -
DekaBank - - 4.1 3.8
DIW Berlin - - 4.1 3.2 2
DuckerFrontier - - 3.6 3.5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EIU 3.9 3.6 4.2 3.8
Fitch Solutions 3.4 3.7 - - 15 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in %
12
HSBC 3.9 3.4 4.0 3.9
IMEF 3.9 3.7 - -
ING - - 3.5 3.8
Itaú BBA 3.6 3.4 - - 9
JPMorgan 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8
Kiel Institute 3.9 3.1 4.0 3.1 6
Monex 3.7 3.9 - -
Nomura 3.8 3.1 - - 3
NORD/LB - - 3.9 3.6 Mexico
Oxford Economics 3.7 3.5 3.9 3.6 Latin America
Profuturo 4.0 3.9 - -
0
Prognosis 3.8 3.6 4.1 4.0 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Scotiabank 4.0 3.8 4.3 4.3
UBS 3.5 3.4 3.9 3.4 16 | Inflation 2019 | evolution of fcst
Ve Por Más 3.9 3.5 3.9 - 6
Maximum
Vector Casa de Bolsa 3.6 3.4 - - Consensus
Summary Minimum
Minimum 3.4 3.1 3.5 3.1 5
Maximum 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4
Median 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.7
Consensus 3.7 3.6 3.9 3.7
4
History
30 days ago 3.7 3.6 3.9 3.7
60 days ago 3.7 3.6 3.9 3.7
90 days ago 3.9 3.7 4.1 3.7 3
Central Bank (May 2019) 3.7 3.0 - -
IMF (Apr. 2019) 3.1 3.0 - - 2

6
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
5
4
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional 3
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Institute of
Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts are

18 | Interest Rate | 2000-2023 | in % 19 | Interest Rate | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
BBVA Bancomer 7.75 6.75
15 12 Capital Economics 7.50 6.50
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 8.25 7.25
10 8 D.Econosignal 8.00 7.25
DekaBank 8.00 -
5 4 Goldman Sachs 7.50 6.75
HSBC 8.25 6.25
Mexico
Latin America
IMEF 8.00 7.50
0 0 ING 7.50 6.50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Itaú BBA 7.75 6.75
JPMorgan 8.25 7.25
20 | Int. Rate 2019 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst
Monex 8.00 7.50
Nomura 8.25 8.00
9 9
Profuturo 8.25 7.75
Prognosis 8.00 7.50
7 7 Société Générale 7.50 -
UBS 7.75 6.75
Ve Por Más 8.25 7.75
Summary
5 5 Minimum 7.25 6.25
Maximum 8.25 8.25
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus
Median 8.00 7.25
Minimum Minimum Consensus 7.92 7.14
3 3 History
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 30 days ago 7.87 7.11
60 days ago 7.86 7.11
90 days ago 8.00 7.21
22 | Interest Rate 2019 | Panelist Distribution
60%
40%
20%
0%
<6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50 >9.50
Notes and sources
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (Banxico,
Banco de México). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD Exchange Rate | MXN per USD
American Chamber Mexico 19.95 19.90
20 BBVA Bancomer 19.00 18.80
20 CABI 20.00 20.30
15 Casa de Bolsa Finamex 19.90 20.00
Commerzbank 19.60 -
18 Credit Suisse 21.00 22.00
10 D.Econosignal 20.00 19.70
DekaBank 20.00 -
EIU 19.61 20.31
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Goldman Sachs 19.30 19.00
HSBC 21.00 21.50
25 | MXN per USD 2019 | evol. of fcst 26 | MXN per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst IMEF 20.35 20.80
ING 19.40 19.70
23 23
Itaú BBA 20.00 19.80
JPMorgan 20.50 20.50
Julius Baer 19.70 20.00
21 21
Monex 19.50 19.50
19 19 Profuturo 20.30 20.70
Prognosis 19.70 20.00
17
Maximum
17 Société Générale 19.60 -
Maximum
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum UBS 20.50 21.20
15 15 Ve Por Más 19.90 19.70
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Summary
Minimum 19.00 18.80
Maximum 21.50 23.00
27 | MXN per USD 2019 | Panelist Distribution
Median 19.95 20.00
60% Consensus 20.04 20.31
History
30 days ago 20.16 20.51
60 days ago 20.18 20.46
40%
90 days ago 20.09 20.45
20%
0%
<18.00 18.50 19.00 19.50 20.00 20.50 21.00 21.50 >22.00
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn Mexico
American Chamber Mexico -1.8 -1.9 -16.0 -19.0
Banamex-Citigroup -1.5 -1.6 -13.0 -14.5 0
Barclays Capital -1.5 -1.6 -12.4 -16.1
BBVA Bancomer -1.8 - - -
CABI - - -5.2 4.2
Capital Economics -2.0 -2.0 - - -2
CEESP -1.9 -2.0 -15.2 -17.6
DekaBank -1.7 -2.3 - -
EIU -1.8 -2.1 -14.3 -18.2 -4
Euromonitor Int. -1.7 -1.8 -18.3 -19.3 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fitch Solutions -1.7 -1.6 -13.7 -13.7
Goldman Sachs -1.8 -1.9 -15.2 -16.1
HSBC -1.7 -1.6 -8.8 -5.8 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
IMEF -2.0 -2.0 - -
Itaú BBA -1.5 -1.7 - - -1.7
JPMorgan -2.2 -2.3 -14.6 -14.8

NORD/LB -1.7 -1.9 - - -1.8
Oxford Economics -1.8 -1.6 -20.7 -18.5
Profuturo -2.0 -2.2 - -
Prognosis -1.8 -1.9 -14.0 -15.0 -1.9
Scotiabank -2.2 -2.4 -17.5 -19.3
Standard Chartered -1.5 -1.3 - - -2.0
UBS -1.9 -2.1 -15.5 -3.9
2019 2020
Summary
Minimum -2.2 -2.4 -20.7 -19.3 -2.1
Maximum -1.5 -1.3 -5.2 4.2 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
Median -1.8 -1.9 -14.4 -16.1
Consensus -1.8 -1.9 -14.3 -13.8
History 30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
30 days ago -1.7 -1.8 -13.4 -12.7
900
60 days ago -1.8 -1.9 -15.1 -15.0 Trade Balance
90 days ago -1.8 -1.9 -14.0 -13.8 Exports
Imports
600
300
-300
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-5
2019 2020
-10
Notes and sources

-15
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based


Exports Imports 40
USD bn USD bn
American Chamber Mexico 486 531 502 550 20
Banamex-Citigroup 486 521 499 535
CABI 478 497 483 493 0
CEESP 489 534 504 551
EIU 458 456 472 474
Euromonitor Int. 470 493 488 513 -20
Fitch Solutions 489 527 503 541
Mexico
Goldman Sachs 473 502 488 518 Latin America
HSBC 486 516 495 522 -40
JPMorgan 481 523 496 537 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Oxford Economics 461 492 482 510
Prognosis 483 505 497 520
Scotiabank 468 490 486 509 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
UBS 468 483 483 487
Summary 530
Minimum 458 456 472 474 2019 2020
Maximum 489 534 504 551
Median 481 505 494 520 510
Consensus 477 507 491 520
History
30 days ago 478 509 492 521 490
60 days ago 476 503 491 518
90 days ago 478 507 492 520
470
450
40
20
-20
Mexico
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
540
2019 2020
520
500
Notes and sources
480


USD bn USD bn Mexico
American Chamber Mexico 175 177 - - 9

Banamex-Citigroup 178 182 456 476
CEESP 175 177 - - 6
EIU - - 487 512
Euromonitor Int. 187 200 - -
Fitch Solutions 177 183 524 562 3
Goldman Sachs 174 175 478 514
HSBC 177 177 - -
Itaú BBA 177 180 - - 0
JPMorgan 174 175 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Oxford Economics 183 194 - -
Profuturo 177 185 - -
Prognosis 178 - - - 38 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Scotiabank 172 170 - -
Summary 188
Minimum 172 170 451 455
Maximum 187 200 524 562
Median 177 177 478 512
Consensus 177 181 479 504 183
History
30 days ago 177 180 480 505
60 days ago 177 180 480 505
90 days ago 178 181 503 526 178
2019 2020
173
39 | External Debt | USD bn
2500
Mexico
Latin America
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
50
40
30
Notes and sources
39 External debt including federal government bonds held by non-residents, in USD. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
40 External debt as % of GDP.

Fact Sheet
General Data Mexico in the Region

Official name: United Mexican States Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Mexico City (21.6m)
Other cities: Guadalajara (5.1m)
Monterrey (4.7m)
Area (km2): 1,964,375 Mexico
Other Other Mexico
21.0%
Population (million, 2018 est.): 125 22.8% 18.0% 23.5%

5.7%
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 76.3 Peru
5.4% Colombia
Illiteracy rate (%, 2016): 5.1 6.4%
Argentina
Language: Spanish and Indigenous 7.5%
Argentina
Brazil 10.4%
35.0% Brazil
8.4%
Time: GMT-6 to GMT-8 36.0%
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 88.5 2008-10 2011-13 2014-16 2008-10 2011-13 2014-16
100 120
80 90
Energy (2016)
Manufacturing
60
Investment

Government
Consumption
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,053 20 0 Private
Services
Airports: 1,714
Chief Ports: Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas
Other
8.8% Other
Political Data
11.6%
LatAm

5.4%
President: A. M. López Obrador EU-27
5.8%
Last elections: 1 July 2018

China
17.4%
Next elections: 2024 U.S.A.
Exports Imports 47.6%
Central Bank Governor: Alejandro Díaz de León
Other Asia
ex-Japan
U.S.A. 12.3%

79.9%

EU-27


Moody’s: A3 Negative
S&P: BBB+ Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB Stable
Food Other Food Other

Mineral 6.2%
Strengths Weaknesses Mineral 7.0% 4.3%
Fuels Fuels
6.3%
7.2%
7.2%

• Commitment to sound fiscal • Dependence on the U.S.
policy economy
• Large domestic market • Financial sector still relatively Exports Imports
• Tariff-free access to United weak
States' market • Instability created by drug-related
violence
Manufact. Manufact.
Products Products
81.5% 80.3%

FOCUSECONOMICS Peru June 2019
Peru
Outlook deteriorates
Peru
• Growth sunk in the first quarter, constrained by cooling domestic

demand and a weaker external sector, and available indicators point to
only a modest uptick in the second quarter. While consumer spending
continued to expand at a healthy clip in Q1, a sharp contraction in
infrastructure spending weighed heavily on investment activity, and
roadblocks at Las Bambas mine undermined export growth. Turning
to Q2, the economy seems to have remained subdued. In April, credit
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages growth eased—although it remained relatively robust—and in April−May
2015-17 2018-20 2021-23 business sentiment weakened, while tensions at Las Bambas continued
Population (million): 31.5 32.5 33.5
GDP (USD bn): 197 235 281
well into May. In the political arena, a stand-off between President
GDP per capita (USD): 6,239 7,217 8,389 Vizcarra and Congress was resolved on 5 June, when legislators gave
GDP growth (%): 3.3 3.8 3.8
the government a vote of confidence. This should allow the cabinet to
Public Debt (% of GDP): 24.0 26.5 25.7 proceed with a political reform package, ranging from anti-graft proposals
Inflation (%): 3.3 2.0 2.5 to strengthening political parties.
• Growth will ease in 2019, as political uncertainty weighs on non-mining
Massimo Bassetti investment and infrastructure spending decelerates. That said, healthy
Economist credit growth and job creation should support household spending.
Intensifying global trade tensions, a stronger-than-expected economic
landing in China and political uncertainty represent the main downside
risks to growth. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.6% in
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast,
6 3.9
and 3.7% in 2020.
2019 2020
4
3.8
• Inflation rose to a 20-month high of 2.7% in May from 2.6% in April,
mainly due to higher prices for education and culture, and housing. This
2
year, firming domestic demand and higher food prices will stoke inflation,
3.7
0
which will be nevertheless kept in check by excess production capacity.
Peru
Latin America
FocusEconomics panelists see inflation ending 2019 at 2.4% and 2020
-2
World
3.6 at 2.3%.
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. • At its 9 May monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of Peru kept
the policy interest rate unchanged at an over eight-year low of 2.75%.
Moderate price pressures, well-anchored inflation expectations and
below-potential economic activity underpinned the Bank’s decision.
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts Faster inflation and solid growth should lead the Bank to hike interest
12
Peru
2.6 rates this year. FocusEconomics panel sees the monetary policy rate
Latin America ending 2019 at 3.01% and 2020 at 3.35%.
9
2.5
• On 7 June, the PEN ended the day at 3.34 per USD, a 0.7% depreciation
6
from the same day in May. Escalating trade disputes between the United
3
2.4
States and China, tensions at Las Bambas, and plunging copper prices—
2019 2020 one of Peru’s main exports—weighed on the sol. Growing commodity
0 2.3 exports and higher policy rates should underpin the PEN this year.
FocusEconomics analysts see the PEN ending 2019 at 3.34 per USD
variation in %, Q1 2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. and 2020 at 3.36 per USD.

REAL SECTOR | Growth sinks to two-year low in Q1

GDP growth in the first quarter of the year fell to 2.3%, which was less than
half Q4 2018’s 4.7% expansion and marked the slowest increase in two
years. Weaker domestic demand and a more fragile external sector led the
deceleration.
Gross Domestic Product | variation in % Domestic demand braked from a 3.5% expansion in Q4 to 1.7% growth in
6
Q1. Fixed investment growth slackened dramatically, falling to 1.0% in annual
terms in Q1 from Q4’s 5.4% year-on-year expansion, weighed down by
plunging public investment in infrastructure from both the central and the local
4 governments. At the same time, government consumption swung from a 2.2%
increase in Q4 to a 2.5% contraction in Q1, due to shrinking spending by local
%
governments. Private investment, however, gained some steam, supported
2 by rising investment in the mining sector and favorable financing conditions.
Moreover, private consumption continued to expand solidly (Q1: +3.4% year-
on-year; Q4: +3.8% yoy), underpinned by strong credit growth, rising wages
0
Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019
and growing employment in the private sector.
Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-

year variation %. The weakening external sector, which added 0.6 percentage points to growth
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
in Q1 following the 1.3 percentage-point contribution in Q4, was also behind
the deceleration in the first quarter. Exports rose just 1.6% in Q1, following
Q4’s 2.9% expansion. While exports of fishing products increased sizably,
foreign sales of mining and energy fell considerably. Meanwhile, imports
contracted 0.5% in Q1 following the sharper 1.8% contraction in the previous
quarter, reflecting cooling fixed investment.
Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expect GDP to expand
3.6% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s
projection. For 2020, the panel expects the economy to grow 3.7%.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity gains traction in March

Economic activity expanded 3.2% year-on-year in March, picking up pace
Economic Activity | variation in % from February’s 2.1% increase. Therefore, national production in the period
8.0 January−March grew 2.3%.
Year-on-year
Annual average
6.0 Growth came on the back of strengthening consumer spending, as well as of
%
higher exports of agricultural, textile, and fishing products. Retail sales gained
4.0
speed in March, while consumer credit growth remained buoyant.
In terms of productive sectors, growth was underpinned by a notable

2.0
expansion in agricultural production, which benefited from favorable weather
conditions. Moreover, notable increases were also recorded in the electricity,
0.0
Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 gas and water, construction, manufacturing and telecommunication sectors.
Note: Year-on-year changes of economic activity and annual average growth
On the other hand, the fishing sector saw another sizable contraction.
in %.
Source: Peru National Statistics Institute (INEI) and FocusEconomics
calculations. Meanwhile, annual average variation in economic activity came in at 3.7% in
March, matching February’s reading.
OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence rises in April

The consumer confidence indicator published by GfK rose to 100 in April
from 94 in March. The index therefore hit the critical 100-point threshold that
separates pessimism from optimism among Peruvian consumers. In February,
it moved above the 100-point threshold for the first time since October 2017.
Consumer confidence improved in all geographical areas, but did not move
into positive territory in all cases. Lima and the east areas were the most

Consumer Confidence Index optimistic zones, while the strongest increase occurred in the northern part of
115 the country, where the index remained in negative territory nonetheless. In the
central and southern parts of the country, confidence increased only modestly,
and also remained below the 100-point threshold.
100
Panelists expect private consumption to grow 3.7% in 2019, which is down

0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panel participants
85 also see consumer spending growing 3.7%.
OUTLOOK | Business confidence at its lowest in seven months

70
The business confidence indicator declined from April’s 55.9 to 52.9 in May,
but nevertheless remained above the 50-point threshold that separates
Note: Consumer Confidence Index (ICC, Indice de Confianza del Consumidor).
Values above 100 indicate optimistic consumer sentiment while values below 100 optimism from pessimism, where it has been for over two years.
indicate pessimistic sentiment.
Source: GfK Peru.
May’s decline came on the back of worse assessments of current conditions,
and of less rosy expectations on the economy as a whole and on the situation
of the company. With regards to the current situation, the deterioration was
broad-based: Firms had less favorable assessments of sales; production;
Business Confidence Index
demand; and new orders. As for the outlook, companies had worse views on
70
the general economic situation, and the situation of the firm, in the next 3 and
12 months. However, expectations on the company’s specific demand and on
job creation were largely stable, while firms were more confident in the short-
60
and medium-term outlook of their own sector of activity.
Panelists expect fixed investment to grow 4.4% in 2019, which is down 0.2
50
percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panel participants see
investment growing 4.7%.
40
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation at 20-month high in May
Note: Business Confidence Index (Indice de Confianza Empresarial).Values Consumer prices in Metropolitan Lima rose 0.15% over the previous month
above 50 indicate an optimistic assesment in business climate while values
below 50 indicate a pessimistic assesment. in May, down from April’s 0.20% month-on-month rise. May’s increase was
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP). largely the result of higher prices for education and culture, and transport and
communication—in particular diesel, and natural gas for vehicles.
Meanwhile, inflation climbed to 2.7% from April’s 2.6%, the fastest inflation in
20 months, but remained within the Central Bank’s target range of 2.0% plus
or minus 1.0 percentage points. In May, core consumer prices, which exclude
Inflation | Consumer Price Index energy and food prices, increased 0.2% from the previous month, up from
1.4 4.5 April’s 0.1% uptick. Finally, core inflation remained stable at April’s 2.6% in
Month-on-month (left scale) May.
0.7 3.0 The Central Bank expects inflation to end 2019 at 2.0% and 2020 again at
2.0%. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect
% %
inflation to end 2019 at 2.4%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last
0.0 1.5 month’s projection. For 2020, the panel expects inflation of 2.3%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank holds its ground in May

-0.7
0.0
At its monetary policy meeting on 9 May, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) kept
the policy interest rate unchanged at an eight-year low of 2.75%, matching
Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index in %.
Source: Peru National Statistical Institute (INEI). market expectations. It last cut the policy interest rate in March 2018, by 25
basis points, which ended an easing cycle.
Moderate inflation, anchored inflation expectations and below-potential

economic activity led the Bank to hold the policy rate unchanged in May.
Inflation accelerated to 2.6% in April (March: 2.2%), but this was largely due
to a low base effect and remained comfortably within the Central Bank’s target

range of 1.0%–3.0% nonetheless. Moreover, economic activity was quite

Monetary Policy Rate | in %
subdued in the first two months of 2019, following a notable acceleration in the
fourth quarter, while consumer confidence plunged in March and businesses
4.5
were somewhat less optimistic in April. Overall, available indicators suggest
growth cooled in the first quarter of the year, and likely remained below
4.0
potential. Inflationary pressures consequently continue to be contained.
%
3.5
The Bank’s forward guidance was unchanged, reemphasizing that the BCRP
will stand pat as long as both inflation and inflation expectations remain
3.0
within the target range and until economic growth approaches its potential.
FocusEconomics panelists expect the monetary policy rate to increase only
2.5
May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19
gradually this year, as growth firms up and inflationary pressures consequently
increase.
Note: Central Bank Reference Rate in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).
The next monetary policy meeting will be held on 13 June.
Our panelists see the monetary policy rate at 3.01% at the end of 2019. For
2020, the panel projects a rate of 3.35% at the end of the year.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade surplus at six-month low in April

Peru’s trade balance recorded a USD 259 million surplus in April, narrowing
from March’s USD 471 million surplus as well as from the USD 340 million
surplus recorded in the same month of last year.
Merchandise Trade
9 27
Exports dipped 2.3% year-on-year in April, due to lower prices more than
offsetting higher quantities, following March’s much sharper 10.7% plunge.
6 18
Lower foreign sales of mining products, and oil and natural gas more than offset
% surging exports of fishing products. Tensions at Las Bambas mine continued
3 9
to disrupt mining activity. Meanwhile, imports contracted 0.2% annually in
April, a much softer decline than March’s 7.2% contraction, dragged down by
0 0
lower purchases of consumer goods and transport equipment.
Exports (yoy, right scale)
-3
-9
In the 12 months leading up to April, the trade surplus was USD 6.4 billion,
below March’s USD 6.5 billion surplus and the weakest reading in one-and-
Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the a-half years.
12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see exports

growing 2.7% in 2019 and the trade balance recording a surplus of USD
6.4 billion. For 2020, the panel sees overseas sales expanding 5.3% and
forecasts a trade surplus of USD 6.7 billion.

Annual Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 192 178 196 216 220 236 248 263 281 299
GDP (PEN bn) 574 609 656 698 741 785 832 883 939 1,000
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.3 2.2 -2.3 4.0 3.4 3.6 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) -1.1 -0.9 -0.2 0.2 6.2 0.7 3.1 3.8 4.4 5.0
Commerce (ann. var. %) 1.9 3.1 2.8 1.6 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 7.3 2.0 11.5 13.0 8.9 - - - - -
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 3.3 4.1 3.7 2.3 2.6 - - - - -
Inflation (WPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.6 - - - - -
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 3.50 3.75 4.25 3.25 2.75 3.01 3.35 3.67 3.98 4.29
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 2.99 3.41 3.36 3.24 3.37 3.34 3.36 3.35 3.35 3.34
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) 2.84 3.18 3.37 3.26 3.29 3.33 3.35 3.36 3.35 3.35
External Sector
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -1.5 -2.9 2.0 6.7 7.2 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.8 8.8
External Debt (USD bn) 69.3 73.1 74.6 76.5 77.8 79.8 83.2 84.7 87.5 90.3
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) -2.0 2.6 -1.1 - - - - - - -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.7 2.2 -2.5 4.1 4.3 4.9 - - - -
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) 1.7 11.4 -0.9 -1.2 4.0 0.8 - - - -
Commerce (ann. var. %) 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.2
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.77 2.80 3.01 3.05 3.08 3.19 3.35
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) 3.29 3.36 3.32 3.32 3.33 3.34 3.34 3.35 3.35 3.36
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -0.4 -3.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.1 - - - -
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.3 -0.2 -1.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 - - - -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.2 1.9 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.9 - - - -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 12.0 12.5 11.2 12.9 13.3 13.4 - - - -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 10.8 10.6 10.0 11.1 11.5 11.5 - - - -
Economic Activity (IMAE, ann. var. %) 2.3 2.1 4.2 5.3 4.7 1.6 2.1 3.2 - -
Consumer Confidence Index (100-pt threshold) 86 91 90 94 99 93 104 94 100 -
Business Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 58.5 55.1 52.4 55.5 58.0 58.1 58.5 59.6 55.9 52.9
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.13 0.19 0.08 0.12 0.18 0.07 0.13 0.73 0.20 0.15
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -0.2 -11.6 0.1 -1.0 -5.7 -4.1 -4.1 -10.7 -2.3 -

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2023 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 16 - Q4 20 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
Asociación de Bancos del Perú 3.5 3.8
4 Banco de Crédito del Perú 3.2 3.5
BBVA Banco Continental 3.9 3.7
2 CABI 3.5 -
0 Credicorp Capital 3.2 3.5
Peru Peru Credit Suisse 3.7 3.7
Latin America Latin America DekaBank 3.7 3.4
World World
-5 -2 DuckerFrontier 4.0 3.9
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 EIU 3.7 3.6
3 | GDP 2019 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts Fitch Solutions 3.9 3.8
8 5 HSBC 3.6 3.9
Maximum IEDEP - CCL 3.2 3.8
Consensus
IPE 3.9 4.1
Minimum
Itaú BBA 3.8 3.9
6 4 JPMorgan 3.7 3.5
Julius Baer 4.0 3.5
Kiel Institute 3.7 3.5
Macroconsult 3.5 3.9
4 3 Moody's Analytics 3.8 3.6
Maximum Nomura 3.9 4.0
Consensus Oxford Economics 4.0 3.8
Minimum Pezco Economics 3.6 3.2
2 2 Rimac Seguros 3.0 -
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Scotiabank 3.1 3.7
5 | GDP 2019 | Panelist Distribution Thorne & Associates 3.5 3.5
UBS 3.8 3.7
60% Summary
Minimum 3.0 3.2
Maximum 4.1 4.1
Median 3.7 3.7
40%
Consensus 3.6 3.7
History
30 days ago 3.8 3.7
60 days ago 3.8 3.7
20%
90 days ago 3.8 3.7
Central Bank (Mar. 2019) 4.0 4.0
CAF (May 2019) 3.3 3.8
0%
<2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 >5.5 IMF (Apr. 2019) 3.9 4.0
Notes and sources
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America ergional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco
Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %.


10
Asociación de Bancos del Perú 3.6 3.9 3.9 4.4
Banco de Crédito del Perú 3.5 2.3 3.1 4.0
5
Barclays Capital 4.2 - 5.3 -
BBVA Banco Continental 3.6 3.6 5.3 5.2
CABI - - 4.0 -
Credicorp Capital 3.5 2.3 3.1 4.0 0
DuckerFrontier 3.9 3.7 - - Peru
Latin America
EIU 3.6 3.5 4.4 4.2
Euromonitor Int. 3.6 3.8 - - -5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
HSBC 3.6 4.0 - -
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
IEDEP - CCL 3.6 3.8 5.2 6.1
IPE 3.8 3.8 5.3 7.5 4.0
Macroconsult 3.5 3.8 4.6 5.7
2019 2020
Oxford Economics 4.2 3.7 - -
3.9
Pezco Economics - - 4.5 3.1
Rimac Seguros 3.5 - 2.5 -
Scotiabank 3.6 3.5 2.4 4.5
3.8
Thorne & Associates 3.8 4.0 3.7 4.6
UBS 4.1 4.0 5.2 4.5
Summary
Minimum 3.4 2.3 2.4 3.1 3.7
Maximum 4.2 4.7 5.7 7.5
Median 3.6 3.8 4.5 4.5
Consensus 3.7 3.7 4.4 4.7 3.6
History
30 days ago 3.8 3.8 4.6 4.4
60 days ago 3.8 3.8 4.6 4.4
90 days ago 3.9 3.8 4.5 4.4
30
Peru
Latin America
20
10
-10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
5.5
5.0
Notes and sources

4.5
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 2019 2020
7 Private consumption, change in 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. 4.0
9 Gross fixed investment, change in 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

10 | Industry | variation in % Manufacturing, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance

Manufacturing Unemployment Fiscal Balance
12
Asociación de Bancos del Perú - - 6.3 6.0 - -
6
Banco de Crédito del Perú -2.2 3.0 6.5 6.5 -2.1 -2.2
BBVA Banco Continental 2.9 0.9 - - -2.2 -2.2
0
Credicorp Capital -2.2 3.0 6.5 6.5 -2.1 -2.2
-6 Credit Suisse - - 7.0 7.5 -2.3 -1.8
Peru DekaBank - - - - -2.0 -1.7
Latin America DuckerFrontier - - 6.5 6.4 - -
-12 EIU 3.5 2.6 6.6 6.9 -2.0 -1.6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fitch Solutions - - - - -2.3 -2.2
Goldman Sachs - - - - -2.6 -1.9
HSBC - - - - -2.3 -2.2
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
IEDEP - CCL 1.3 3.7 6.7 - -2.3 -2.1
4
IPE - - - - -2.2 -2.2
Itaú BBA - - 6.6 6.4 -2.2 -1.8
JPMorgan - - - - -2.0 -2.0
Macroconsult 1.2 2.0 - - -2.3 -2.2
3
Moody's Analytics -6.2 5.3 - - -2.3 -1.9
Oxford Economics - - 6.2 6.1 -2.8 -2.6
Pezco Economics - - - - -2.4 -2.7
2
Rimac Seguros 2.9 - - - -2.0 -
Scotiabank 1.3 3.5 - - -2.0 -1.8
Thorne & Associates 2.3 4.0 6.9 6.6 -2.3 -1.8
1 UBS 3.0 3.4 6.5 6.4 -2.3 -2.0
2019 2020
Summary
Minimum -6.2 0.9 6.2 6.0 -2.8 -2.7
0 Maximum 3.5 5.3 7.5 7.5 -1.8 -1.5
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Median 1.3 3.2 6.5 6.5 -2.2 -2.0
Consensus 0.7 3.1 6.6 6.6 -2.2 -2.0
History
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 30 days ago 1.7 3.0 6.6 6.6 -2.3 -2.1
60 days ago 3.1 3.0 6.6 6.6 -2.4 -2.2
11
90 days ago 2.8 3.0 6.5 6.4 -2.5 -2.2
Peru
Latin America
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

4
Notes and sources
-4 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela.
All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática del Perú)
and the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Peru Consensus Forecast.
Latin America 10 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: INEI.
-8 11 Manufacturing, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Unemployment in metropolitan Lima and Callao, % of active population. Source: INEI.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCRP.

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in % 14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2023 | in %

12
Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
8
BBVA Banco Continental 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 4
CABI 3.6 - - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.4 0
Credicorp Capital 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.5 Peru
Latin America
DekaBank - - 2.2 2.0
-4
DuckerFrontier - - 2.4 2.5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EIU 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.0
Euromonitor Int. - - 2.7 2.6 15 | Inflation | Q1 16 - Q4 20 | in %
12
Peru
HSBC 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.2
Latin America
IEDEP - CCL 2.2 2.4 - -
IPE 2.0 2.2 - - 9
Itaú BBA 2.6 2.5 - -
JPMorgan 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.5
Julius Baer - - 2.0 2.5 6
Macroconsult - - 2.0 2.0
Moody's Analytics 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.2 3
Nomura 2.4 2.0 - -
0
Rimac Seguros 2.5 - - - Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Scotiabank 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.6
Standard Chartered - - 2.3 2.6 16 | Inflation 2019 | evolution of fcst
Thorne & Associates 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.1
4
UBS 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.4
Summary
Minimum 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0
Maximum 3.6 3.0 2.8 3.0
3
Median 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4
Consensus 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4
History
30 days ago 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3
60 days ago 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2
90 days ago 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4
Maximum
Additional Forecasts Consensus
Central Bank (Mar. 2019) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Minimum
IMF (Apr. 2019) 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 1
CAF (May 2019) 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

4
2
Notes and sources
Maximum
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional Consensus
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Minimum
1
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
16 Inflation, evolution of 2019 eop inflation forecasts during the last 18 months.
17 Inflation, evolution of 2020 eop inflation forecasts during the last 18 months.

Peru Asociación de Bancos del Perú 2.75 2.75
Peru
Latin America Latin America Banco de Crédito del Perú 2.75 2.75
15 12 Barclays Capital 3.50 3.50
BBVA Banco Continental 3.25 3.50
CABI 3.25 -
10 8 Capital Economics 2.75 2.75
Credicorp Capital 2.75 2.75
5 4 Credit Suisse 3.50 4.25
0 0 HSBC 3.25 3.50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 IEDEP - CCL 3.00 -
Itaú BBA 2.75 3.75
20 | Int. Rate 2019 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst JPMorgan 2.50 -
5 5
Rimac Seguros 2.75 -
Thorne & Associates 2.75 3.00
4 4
UBS 3.50 3.75
Summary
Minimum 2.50 2.75
Maximum 3.75 4.25
3 3 Median 3.00 3.50
Maximum
Maximum Consensus Consensus 3.01 3.35
Consensus Minimum History
Minimum 30 days ago 3.16 3.57
2 2 60 days ago 3.27 3.67
90 days ago 3.37 3.72
22 | Interest Rate 2019 | Panelist Distribution
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
<1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 >5.00
Notes and sources
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP,
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD Exchange Rate | PEN per USD
3.6 3.40 Individual Forecasts 2019 2020
Banco de Crédito del Perú 3.34 3.36
3.35 Barclays Capital 3.33 -
3.2 BBVA Banco Continental 3.28 3.34
CABI 3.50 -
3.30 Capital Economics 3.50 3.40
2.8 Credicorp Capital 3.34 3.36
3.25 Credit Suisse 3.27 3.35
EIU 3.34 3.32
2.4 3.20 Goldman Sachs 3.26 3.15
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 HSBC 3.36 3.48
IEDEP - CCL 3.37 3.41
25 | PEN per USD 2019 | evol. of fcst 26 | PEN per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst IPE 3.36 3.40
Itaú BBA 3.35 3.31
4.0 4.0
JPMorgan 3.37 -
Maximum Maximum
Macroconsult 3.30 -
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum Moody's Analytics 3.31 3.31
Nomura 3.45 3.40
3.6 3.6
Rimac Seguros 3.30 -
3.2 3.2 Standard Chartered 3.30 3.60
Thorne & Associates 3.40 3.40
UBS 3.34 3.35
Summary
2.8 2.8 Minimum 3.25 3.15
Maximum 3.50 3.60
Median 3.34 3.36
27 | PEN per USD 2019 | Panelist Distribution Consensus 3.34 3.36
History
80% 30 days ago 3.34 3.36
60 days ago 3.34 3.34
90 days ago 3.35 3.36
60%
40%
20%
0%
<3.00 3.10 3.20 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.60 3.70 >3.80
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn Peru
Banco de Crédito del Perú -1.8 -2.0 6.0 5.2 3
Barclays Capital - - 3.9 -
BBVA Banco Continental -1.9 -2.0 6.4 6.3
CABI - - 5.5 -
0
Capital Economics -2.0 -2.5 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -1.3 -1.5 - -
Credicorp Capital -1.8 -2.0 6.0 5.2
-3
DekaBank -1.6 -1.6 - -
EIU -1.7 -1.3 6.7 8.0
Euromonitor Int. -1.5 -1.7 7.4 7.2 -6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Goldman Sachs -1.7 -1.6 6.3 5.9
HSBC -1.6 -2.0 6.9 5.7
IEDEP - CCL - - 5.7 8.4 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
IPE -1.5 -1.7 7.4 7.7
-1.0
Itaú BBA -1.4 -1.3 - -
JPMorgan -2.0 -2.0 6.3 5.4
Macroconsult -1.4 -1.4 5.5 5.6
Nomura -1.3 -1.5 - - -1.5
Oxford Economics - - 9.3 9.9

Scotiabank -2.1 -2.2 5.8 5.8
UBS -1.9 -2.0 6.4 5.5 -2.0
Summary
Minimum -2.1 -2.5 3.9 5.2 2019 2020
Maximum -1.3 -1.3 9.3 9.9
Median -1.7 -1.7 6.3 5.9 -2.5
Consensus -1.7 -1.8 6.4 6.7 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
History
30 days ago -1.6 -1.7 6.4 6.7
60 days ago -2.0 -2.1 6.1 6.2 30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
90 days ago -2.0 -2.0 5.4 5.4
90
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
60
30
-30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2019 2020
Notes and sources

5
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
28 Current account balance as % of GDP.


Exports Imports 60
USD bn USD bn Peru
Barclays Capital 49.0 - 45.1 - 30
BBVA Banco Continental 49.2 50.3 42.9 44.0
CABI 49.1 - 43.6 -
EIU 49.5 52.9 42.9 44.9
0
Euromonitor Int. 50.9 53.2 43.5 46.1
Goldman Sachs 50.4 52.9 44.1 47.0
HSBC 51.6 53.1 44.7 47.4
IEDEP - CCL 49.2 53.6 43.5 45.2 -30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
IPE 50.6 54.4 43.2 46.7
JPMorgan 49.9 49.4 43.6 44.0
Macroconsult 50.0 52.2 44.5 46.6
Oxford Economics 52.7 56.4 43.4 46.5 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Scotiabank 49.1 51.7 43.3 45.9
56
UBS 53.0 54.6 46.6 49.2
Summary
Minimum 49.0 49.4 42.9 44.0
Maximum 53.0 57.5 46.6 49.2
Median 50.0 52.9 43.6 46.6 53
Consensus 50.4 53.1 44.0 46.4

History
30 days ago 50.8 53.2 44.4 46.5
60 days ago 50.7 52.9 44.7 46.7 50
90 days ago 50.3 52.3 44.9 46.9
2019 2020
47
60
Peru
Latin America
30
-30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
49
47
Notes and sources

45


USD bn USD bn Peru
Banco de Crédito del Perú 64.5 67.3 80.7 83.4 20
Barclays Capital 68.7 - 79.8 -
Citigroup Global Mkts 61.5 62.4 - - 15
Credit Suisse 59.7 59.5 81.5 84.1
EIU 66.6 69.7 - - 10
Fitch Solutions 64.1 68.1 76.0 79.4 5
Goldman Sachs 62.7 63.6 - -
HSBC 60.1 60.2 84.1 91.1
IEDEP - CCL 64.9 65.4 - - 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
IPE 63.6 65.9 - -
Itaú BBA 63.0 65.0 - -
JPMorgan 63.1 61.1 - -
Oxford Economics 69.4 76.3 - - 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Scotiabank 65.0 66.5 - -
76
UBS 64.5 65.7 75.6 78.1
Summary
Minimum 59.7 59.5 75.6 78.1
72
Maximum 69.4 76.3 84.1 91.1
Median 64.2 65.8 80.7 83.4
Consensus 64.1 65.7 79.8 83.2
History 68
30 days ago 62.7 64.4 79.4 83.2
60 days ago 63.0 64.9 78.6 80.7
90 days ago 63.1 65.2 78.8 81.0 64
2019 2020
60
60
Peru
Latin America
50
40
30
20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
105
2019 2020
95
Notes and sources

85

Fact Sheet
General Data Peru in the Region

Official name: Republic of Peru Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Lima (10.4m)
Other cities: Arequipa (0.9m) Peru Peru
Trujillo (0.8m) 5.4% 4.2%
Area (km2): 1,285,216
22.8% 19.5%
Population growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 0.9
Brazil Brazil
Colombia
6.4% 36.0%
Argentina
Language: Spanish, Quechua and Argentina
10.4%
Aymara Colombia
8.4%
Measures: Metric system
Mexico
Time: GMT-5 21.0%
Mexico
23.5%
Economic Structure
100 110
90
80
Energy (2016)
70
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1099 Manufacturing Investment
60
50
Government
Consumption
30
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 246 20 Private
Services
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 55.5 10 Consumption
0 -10
Airports: 191
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Callao, Paita, Matarani
Other Other
9.6% 7.2%
Political Data
U.S.A.
19.2%

U.S.A.

22.4%
President: Martín Vizcarra LatAm
14.8%
Last elections: 10 April 2016 Switzerland
LatAm
25.8%
Next elections: April 2021 Exports 5.1%

Imports

Central Bank President: Julio Velarde Flores Other EU-27
EU-27
12.1%
9.9%

Spain

Other Asia
China 5.1%
28.5% Other Asia China ex-Japan
ex-Japan 22.4% 10.1%

Moody’s: A3 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BBB+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB+ Stable
Other Other
1.4% 2.3%
Manufact. Food
Strengths Weaknesses Food
Products
11.1%
14.2%
25.1%
Mineral
• Mining, energy and fish • Large informal economy Fuels
12.0%
resources • Inadequate infrastructure
Exports Imports
• Low public debt • High dependence on commodity
Mineral
• Strong growth potential prices Fuels
10.4%
Ores &
Manufact.
. . Metals
Products
49.0%
74.6%

FOCUSECONOMICS Venezuela June 2019
Venezuela
Venezuela
Outlook worsens
• A rare release of data by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on 28
May revealed the sheer magnitude of the crisis currently gripping the
country. Notably, the economy has shrunk by about half since 2013, with
output plunging to levels not seen since the late 1990s. Moreover, despite
oil production recovering by 28,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April from
March, it has plummeted by more than 33% overall since January amid
the crushing weight of oil sanctions and the power blackouts in March.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages Underlining the effect of U.S. sanctions, oil exports reportedly fell by nearly
2012-14 2015-17 2018-20
a fifth month-on-month to 874,500 bpd in May as some customers stopped
Population (million): 29.8 30.6 28.1 purchasing oil from PDVSA, the state-owned oil company, to comply with
GDP (USD bn): 259 249 101
the late-April deadline. On the political front, the power struggle between
GDP growth (%): 0.9 -13.1 -16.0 President Nicolás Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaidó seems far
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -6.6 -16.0 -17.4 from over as representatives of both parties failed to reach a diplomatic
Inflation (%): 40.3 249 771,775 solution to the crisis in negotiations hosted by Norway in late May.
Current Account (% of GDP): 1.5 0.0 2.4
• The near-term outlook is dire. The political stalemate between Maduro
Javier Colato and Guaidó seems set to drag on, while financial sanctions and the oil
Economist embargo aimed at hindering the government’s access to hard currency,
which accounts for the overwhelming majority of imports, worsens an
already-crippled economy that has been stuck in depression for years.
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts The possibility of a political transition remains high, a scenario which
15
Venezuela
10
some of our panelists have factored into their forecasts. FocusEconomics
Latin America
World panelists see the economy contracting 24.6% in 2019, which is down 2.3
0
0 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2020, the panel sees
GDP falling 3.8%.
-10
-15
-20
• Data recently published by authorities revealed that inflation ended 2018
2019 2020 at 130,060%, well below what analysts had been estimating. It also
-30 -30 showed that inflation eased to 282,973% in April (March: 329,568%).
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020 Although measures undertaken by the BCV have seemingly helped to
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. stabilize hyperinflation to some extent, they are far from reining in the
still-exceedingly high price pressures that have decimated the purchasing
power of households. Our panel sees inflation rising to nearly 5,600,000%
Oil Production Oil Price
by the end of 2019, before falling to around 1,750,000% by the end of
2.5 120
2020.
2.0 90
• On 10 May, the BCV authorized the functioning of “exchange tables” run
1.5 60
by banks—effectively rendering the official DICOM exchange rate system
irrelevant—which communicate the resulting exchange rates on a daily
1.0 30 basis to the BCV. Despite the measure, however, the differential between
the official and parallel exchange rate persists. On 7 June, the VES ended
0.5 0 the day at 6,049 per USD, while the parallel market rate fell to 6,301 VES
Q2 14 Q2 15 Q2 16 Q2 17 Q2 18 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
per USD. Our panelists expect the official rate to end 2019 at 53.9 million
Oil production, millions of barrels Venezuelan oil price, USD per barrel.
per day. VES per USD, before rising to 5.5 billion VES per USD by the end of 2020.

REAL SECTOR | Rare release of Central Bank data reveals magnitude

of crisis
On 28 May, the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) released macroeconomic
data for the first time in nearly four years, highlighting the extent of the profound
economic crisis currently gripping the country. The economy contracted a
staggering 22.5% in year-on-year terms in the third quarter of 2018—the
latest period for which data became available—following a 17.6% plunge in
the previous quarter. The third-quarter downturn marked the 19th consecutive
quarter of falling output and was the sharpest since Q1 2003, when a strike
brought the vital oil industry to a halt. Overall, the economy has shrunk by
around half in 2014–2018, with output down to levels not seen since the late
1990s.
The steeper decline in output in Q3 2018 compared to the prior quarter

reflected sharper contractions in both domestic and external demand. Private
consumption sank 24.0% in year-on-year terms, the most severe decline
since at least 1999 (Q2 2018: -15.6% year-on-year). Despite frequent hikes to
the minimum wage, out-of-control inflation—largely fueled by exchange rate
misalignments—has significantly eroded the purchasing power of households,
with spending further hampered by high unemployment. Furthermore, fixed
investment has continuously contracted for almost four years and nearly
halved in annual terms in Q3 (Q3 2018: -47.3% yoy; Q2 2018: -31.2% yoy).
0 Similarly, government expenditures fell 10.1% year-on-year, following a similar
pullback in the prior quarter (Q2 2018: -10.2% yoy).
-10 On the external front, exports of goods and services—in which oil shipments
account for the overwhelming majority—nosedived in Q3, albeit slightly less
%
than in Q2 (Q3 2018: -32.1% yoy; Q2 2018: -37.6% yoy). Imports, on the other
-20 hand, rebounded in the quarter after having slumped for fifteen quarters in a
row (Q3 2018: +8.2% yoy; Q2 2018: -6.1% yoy).
-30 On the production side, activity in the non-oil segment of the economy shrank
Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019
22.0% over the same period in 2017 (Q2 2018: -16.2% year-on-year) as
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %. output in manufacturing sector almost halved in annual terms. Meanwhile,
Source: Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
the all-important oil sector—which accounts for a significant share of foreign
exchange earnings and government revenues—contracted for the 14th
consecutive quarter in Q3 2018, albeit slightly less than in Q2 (Q3 2018: -25.8%
yoy; Q2 2018: -26.7% yoy). Oil production has been on a steady decline since
2015 due to years of mismanagement, corruption, underinvestment and brain
drain, and has been curtailed more recently by the imposition of economic
sanctions.
Looking ahead, the near-term outlook is bleak. Uncertainty remains elevated

over the outcome of the power struggle between President Nicolás Maduro
and opposition leader Juan Guaidó. Meanwhile, the economy is expected to
continue to be crippled by spiraling inflation, dwindling oil production and a
dysfunctional exchange rate regime. Financial sanctions aimed at choking
off the government’s access to hard currency only worsen the already dire
situation.
FocusEconomics panellists project that GDP will contract 24.6% this year,
which is down 2.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2020,
panelists expect GDP to fall 3.8%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Hyperinflation stabilizes amid Central Bank’s

contractionary policies
National consumer prices jumped 33.8% from the previous month in April,
following March’s 34.8% month-on-month surge, according to the trove
of data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on 28 May. The
print marked the third consecutive month of moderating price pressures and
indicates that hyperinflation—as defined by monthly price increases of over
50% and which occurred for 11 straight months until February 2019—has
stabilized, at least for now. April’s slight moderation largely reflected softer
price increases for food and non-alcoholic beverages, and housing rents.
Meanwhile, inflation eased for the second month running but still came in
at a stratospheric 282,973% in April, down from both March’s 329,568%
and February’s 344,510%, which had marked the highest reading in recent
history. For its part, annual average inflation leaped to 253,518% in April from
200 400,000
235,610% in the previous month.
Monthly (left scale)
Annual (right scale)
Venezuelan authorities have recently implemented a series of measures
150 300,000
that have contributed to slowing the economy’s inflationary spiral. Following
% %
aggressive devaluations of the bolivar to keep pace with the black market
100 200,000
rate, in early May the BCV authorized the functioning of “exchange tables”
run by banks—and with it rendering the official DICOM auction-based foreign
50 100,000
exchange system irrelevant—in a bid to stabilize, or at least limit, rising
pressures to the exchange rate in the black market, which would in turn feed
0 0 through inflation. Moreover, the BCV’s policy of drastically raising the reserve
Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19
requirements on commercial banks has significantly reduced the amount of
Source: Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).
bolivares that circulate in the economy, which some analysts contend that a
large chunk was used via credit to purchase dollars in the parallel market, thus
bidding up their price and fueling inflation. That said, although the massive
devaluations of the bolivar and the sharp tightening of monetary liquidity in real
terms have eased hyperinflation, the measures have also greatly diminished
the purchasing power of households. They have come at the expense of
severely contracting real incomes, which by itself also serves to restrain
demand-pull inflation to some extent, and thus consumption and, ultimately,
activity overall in an economy that is already in a deep state of crisis.
Our panel expects inflation to end 2019 at nearly 5,600,000%, before falling to
around 1,750,000% by the end of 2020.

Annual Data 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Real Sector
Population (million) 29.4 29.8 30.2 30.6 30.7 30.5 29.2 28.1 27.1
GDP per capita (USD) 11,287 7,870 7,030 10,568 9,092 4,717 4,427 3,041 3,297
GDP (USD bn) 331 234 212 324 279 144 129 85 89
GDP (VES bn) 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.28 2.01 - - -
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 20 37 35 165 250 615 - - -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 5.6 1.3 -3.9 -6.2 -17.0 -15.7 -18.4 -24.6 -3.8
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 12.3 -1.9 -8.8 -11.8 -26.3 -21.1 -16.3 -27.4 -1.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 7.0 4.7 -3.4 -8.9 -19.4 -16.2 -17.5 -22.2 -0.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.3 3.3 0.6 -3.2 -14.7 -7.2 -12.6 -23.9 -4.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 23.3 -9.0 -16.9 -20.4 -45.1 -45.3 -33.1 -36.2 2.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.6 -6.2 -4.7 -0.9 -11.7 0.0 -31.9 -35.5 0.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 24.4 -9.7 -18.5 -23.1 -50.1 -34.7 -3.2 -35.0 8.0
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.8 7.5 7.0 6.8 10.3 14.9 18.2 22.8 23.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.9 -1.9 -12.9 -15.6 -15.6 -16.8 -17.3 -17.5 -17.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 27.6 31.3 28.5 74.7 92.3 108.4 114.8 143.1 111.7
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 61 70 64 101 159 1,121 63,257 317,806 25,334
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 20 56 69 181 274 863 130,060 5,590,864 1,768,879
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 21 41 62 122 255 438 65,374 5,079,259 1,382,712
90-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 14.50 14.74 14.84 14.59 14.62 14.77 15.00 - -
Stock Market (ann. var. of IBC, %) 303 480 41 278 117 3,884 126,985 - -
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 4.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 10.0 10.0 638 53.9. mn. 5.5. bn.
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, aop) 4.3 6.1 6.3 6.3 9.3 10.0 81.9 7,153,405 1.4. bn.
Non-official Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 17.3 62.3 170 833 3,165 111,413 730 45.6. mn. 27.5. bn.
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.8 2.0 1.7 -5.6 -0.4 6.1 4.9 1.6 0.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 2.6 4.6 4.9 -16.1 -3.9 8.7 6.3 1.4 0.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 31.9 31.6 27.4 3.9 11.0 22.0 18.8 9.3 7.0
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 97.9 88.8 74.7 37.2 27.4 34.0 33.7 19.8 19.1
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 66.0 57.2 47.3 33.3 16.4 12.0 14.9 10.5 12.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 4.4 -9.3 -15.9 -50.1 -26.4 24.2 -1.0 -41.2 -3.6
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 25.4 -13.3 -17.4 -29.5 -50.9 -26.6 23.6 -29.3 14.5
Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel) 103.4 98.8 88.4 44.7 35.2 46.7 63.8 60.4 64.6
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 6.0 2.7 -1.0 0.8 1.1 -0.1 - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 29.9 21.5 22.1 16.4 11.0 9.7 8.8 7.1 8.6
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.4 4.5 5.6 5.9 8.1 9.6 7.1 8.1 8.6
External Debt (USD bn) 129 122 120 125 128 113 111 134 126
External Debt (% of GDP) 38.8 52.1 56.7 38.6 45.7 78.7 86.0 156.5 140.4
Quarterly Data Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -15.5 -20.7 -26.0 -26.4 -24.7 -11.8 -3.9 -0.4 0.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 130,060 329,568 410,679 2,199,834 5,590,864 4,393,068 2,590,658 2,018,327 1,768,879
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 638 3,294 8,032 1,664,964 53.9. mn. 295 mn. 965 mn. 1.7. bn. 5.5. bn.
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, aop) 140 2,589 5,663 836,498 27.8. mn. 174 mn. 630 mn. 1.3. bn. 3.6. bn.
Monthly Data Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 34,413 42,545 45,385 63,257 93,230 111,185 99,541 - -
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 62.2 64.7 151.6 638 3,299 3,302 3,294 5,203 5,888
Non-official Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 98.1 238.8 406 730 2,715 3,701 3,678 6,124 6,347
Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel) 70.7 72.6 60.2 52.6 53.6 57.8 60.2 65.6 63.9
Oil Production (mn barrels per day) 1.22 1.21 1.18 1.17 1.15 1.02 0.74 0.77 -
International Reserves (USD bn) 8.4 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.4 8.4 9.0 8.5 7.9
Notes:
1. On 20 August 2018, authorities overhauled the currency by removing five zeroes from the Bolívar Fuerte (VEF) and renaming it as the Bolívar Soberano (VES).
Historical data through 2017 are expressed in VEF. Historical data and forecasts for 2018 onwards are expressed in VES.
2. Given the current economic conditions in Venezuela and the limited availability of official data, it has become extremely difficult to compute adequate forecasts,
particularly for the long term. Therefore, FocusEconomics has discontinued providing forecasts for the 2021-2023 period temporarily. We hope to resume providing
these forecasts once reliable data becomes available.
3. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

Venezuela AGPV -14.3 0.0
Latin America
World Andes Investments -12.3 -4.8
15 Barclays Capital -10.7 6.2
0 Capital Economics -30.0 -5.0
DekaBank -25.4 -0.2
0 Dinámica Venezuela -21.0 -18.9
DuckerFrontier -27.0 -9.0
-15 Ecoanalítica -35.7 -9.0
-15 Econométrica -46.0 -
Venezuela
Latin America
EIU -25.4 -0.2
World Euromonitor Int. -7.7 -4.4
-30 -30 Goldman Sachs -25.0 -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
Julius Baer -25.0 -5.0
Moody's Analytics -18.5 2.2
3 | GDP 2019 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts Novo Banco -25.0 -10.0
Oxford Economics -38.3 4.0
25 25 Polinomics -30.0 -
Torino Capital -37.2 4.1
UBS -13.0 -10.0
Summary
0 0 Minimum -46.0 -18.9
Maximum -7.7 6.2
Median -25.0 -4.6
Consensus -24.6 -3.8
-25 -25 History
Maximum
Maximum 30 days ago -22.3 -2.2
Consensus
Consensus 60 days ago -14.5 -1.8
Minimum Minimum
90 days ago -12.4 -2.5
-50 -50 Additional Forecasts
IMF (Apr. 2019) -25.0 -10.0
World Bank (Apr. 2019) -25.0 -
5 | Consumpiton | variation in % 6 | Investment | variation in % CEPAL (Apr. 2019) -16.0 -
24 60
Venezuela
Latin America
12 30
0 0
Notes and sources

-12 -30
Venezuela General:
Latin America Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2020 unless otherwise stated. The
Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data
-24 -60 are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela), Statistical
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística) and Economy and Finance
Ministry (Mppbf, Ministerio del Poder Popular de Economía y Finanzas).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCV
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of fcst
Source: BCV
10 15
5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: BCV
0 0 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: BCV
7 Private consumption, change in 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last
18 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, change in 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the
-10 -15 last 18 months.
9 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE
10 Balance of non-financial central government as % of GDP. Source:
Mppbf
-20 -30 11 Public debt % of GDP. Source: Mppbf
12 Unemployment, % of active population, evolution of 2019 and 2020
2019 2020 2019 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
13 Balance of non-financial central government as % of GDP, evolution of
-30 -45 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
14 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during
the last 18 months.


Consumption Investment Fiscal Balance Public Debt
variation in % variation in % % of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
AGPV - - - - -12.0 -10.0 66.0 65.0
Andes Investments -11.2 -4.5 -15.7 4.5 -14.5 -13.1 - -
Barclays Capital -11.8 13.7 -31.4 30.0 -17.4 -11.4 123.5 94.4
Capital Economics - - - - -30.0 -20.0 150.0 160.0
DekaBank - - - - -8.5 -9.7 87.7 89.3
Dinámica Venezuela -21.7 -18.9 -46.4 -44.4 - - - -
DuckerFrontier -20.0 -5.0 - - - - - -
Ecoanalítica -30.0 -5.4 -38.0 -16.0 - - - -
Econométrica -8.6 - - - - - - -
EIU -21.3 -0.2 -15.0 8.0 -8.5 -29.5 120.2 68.5
Euromonitor Int. -19.5 -6.2 - - - - - -
Goldman Sachs - - - - -30.0 -31.1 - -
Julius Baer - - - - - - - -
Moody's Analytics -20.6 1.7 -30.3 1.9 -11.2 -6.5 - -
Novo Banco - - - - - - - -
Oxford Economics -29.5 -5.1 -56.0 20.0 -18.0 -15.8 302.1 238.3
Polinomics - - - - - - - -
Torino Capital -49.7 20.8 -57.0 13.9 -12.5 -11.8 228.2 110.7
UBS - - - - -30.0 -31.1 67.1 67.8
Summary
Minimum -49.7 -18.9 -57.0 -44.4 -30.0 -31.1 66.0 65.0
Maximum -8.6 20.8 -15.0 30.0 -8.5 -6.5 302.1 238.3
Median -20.6 -4.8 -34.7 6.3 -14.5 -13.1 121.8 91.8
Consensus -22.2 -0.9 -36.2 2.3 -17.5 -17.3 143.1 111.7
History
30 days ago -20.3 -0.2 -30.5 10.8 -16.5 -15.4 139.4 120.2
60 days ago -16.5 -1.9 -29.9 11.2 -16.8 -16.5 155.2 142.1
90 days ago -15.5 -1.7 -27.1 8.6 -17.0 -15.5 155.3 142.8
9 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 10 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 11 | Public Debt | % of GDP
25 5 160
Venezuela
Latin America
0
20 120
-5
15 80
-10
10 40
-15
Venezuela
Latin America
5 -20 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
12 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts 13 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts 14 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts
25 -9 200
2019 2020
20 -12 150
15 -15 100
2019 2020 2019 2020
10 -18 50
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

Monetary Sector | Additional Forecasts
Money Supply and Inflation 15 | Money Supply | variation in %

Money Supply Consumer Prices 400
AGPV 64,942 42,345 27,335 121,522 300
Andes Investments - - - -
Barclays Capital - - 550,050 797
Capital Economics - - - - 200
DekaBank - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela - - - -
DuckerFrontier - - - -
100
Ecoanalítica 64,648 3,790 824,204 5,943
Econométrica - - 221,422 -
EIU 110,443 209 48,116 29
0
Euromonitor Int. - - - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Goldman Sachs - - 10,000,000 -
Julius Baer - - - -
Moody's Analytics - - 3,142 150 16 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in %
Novo Banco - - - - 6
Oxford Economics - - 8,000 2,028
Polinomics - - 32,558 -
Torino Capital 1,283,995 15,325 40,284,682 20,560
UBS 65,000 65,000 9,500,000 14,000,000 4
Summary
Minimum 64,648 209 3,142 29
Maximum 1,283,995 65,000 40,284,682 14,000,000
Median 65,000 15,325 221,422 3,985
2
Consensus 317,806 25,334 5,590,864 1,768,879
History
30 days ago 272,252 27,129 4,938,311 1,638,672
60 days ago 404,684 2,973,936 29,864,037 2,474,574
90 days ago 50,334,526 3,553,768 70,172,394 1,584,217 0
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
17 | Current Account | USD bn

40
20
-20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
18 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Notes and sources

2
Venezuela. All monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 1
15 Money supply M2, annual variation in %, in thousands.
16 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (eop), in millions.
17 Current account balance in USD bn.
18 Current account balance in USD bn, change in 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. 0
20 Imports, annual variation in %. 2019 2020
22 Exports in USD bn, change in 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. -1
23 Imports in USD bn, change in 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
24 International reserves, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

External Sector | Current Account, Trade Balance and International Reserves
Current
Current Account, Trade Balance andAccount
Oil Price Trade Balance Exports Imports Int. Reserves
USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
AGPV -2.0 -1.0 3.9 5.0 20.0 20.0 16.1 15.0 8.0 8.0
Andes Investments - - - - - - - - - -
Barclays Capital 0.2 -8.5 7.5 5.5 17.8 26.7 10.3 21.2 10.1 15.1
Capital Economics - - - - - - - - - -
DekaBank 3.9 3.7 - - - - - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela 4.0 4.0 11.0 7.3 24.1 15.3 13.1 8.0 7.6 6.7
DuckerFrontier - - - - - - - - - -
Ecoanalítica 4.3 1.7 14.9 8.4 23.3 16.0 8.3 7.7 4.6 5.9
Econométrica - - 9.3 - 20.6 - 11.3 - - -
EIU 0.2 -0.8 9.0 5.8 22.9 22.9 13.8 17.1 3.6 12.6
Euromonitor Int. - - - - - - - - 7.1 6.2
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - - -
Julius Baer - - - - - - - - - -
Moody's Analytics 2.2 2.0 - - - - - - - -
Novo Banco - - - - - - - - - -
Oxford Economics - - 9.1 4.5 15.3 11.1 6.2 6.6 8.0 8.5
Polinomics - - 7.6 - 17.6 - 10.0 - - -
Torino Capital -1.7 3.1 8.0 13.4 13.0 21.0 5.0 7.6 6.4 6.0
UBS - - 12.5 6.4 23.4 19.5 10.9 13.1 8.3 8.5
Summary
Minimum -2.0 -8.5 3.9 4.5 13.0 11.1 5.0 6.6 3.6 5.9
Maximum 4.3 4.0 14.9 13.4 24.1 26.7 16.1 21.2 10.1 15.1
Median 1.2 1.8 9.1 6.1 20.3 19.8 10.6 10.6 7.6 8.0
Consensus 1.4 0.5 9.3 7.0 19.8 19.1 10.5 12.0 7.1 8.6
History
30 days ago 2.2 -0.2 8.2 7.0 18.3 19.5 10.1 12.5 7.3 10.0
60 days ago 2.2 0.2 7.7 7.6 18.1 20.2 10.4 12.7 7.7 9.9
90 days ago 2.2 0.6 7.5 8.3 18.7 21.1 11.2 12.8 7.7 9.5
19 | Exports | variation in % 20 | Imports | variation in % 21 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
70 70 27
Venezuela
Latin America
35 35
18
0 0
9
-35 -35
Venezuela Venezuela
-70 -70 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
22 | Exports | evol. of fcst 23 | Imports | evol. of fcst 24 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
34 21 15
2019 2020 2019 2020

2019 2020
28 17 12
22 13 9
16 9 6
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

Fact Sheet
General Data Venezuela in the Region*

Official name: Bolivarian Republic of Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Venezuela
Capital: Caracas (2.9m) Venezuela Venezuela
4.7% 2.4%
Other cities: Maracaibo (2.1m)
Valencia (1.7m)
Area (km2): 912,050 Other Other
Population (million, 2018 est.): 29.2 26.9% 23.2%
Population density (per km2, 2018): 32.0 Brazil Brazil

35.1%
Population growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 1.2 33.4%
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 76.2 Colombia

6.2%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2016): 2.9 Argentina
7.1%
Language: Spanish Argentina
10.1%
Colombia
Mexico
Time: GMT-4.30 20.0%
Mexico
23.0%
Economic Structure
Communications (2017)
100 120
80 90
Energy (2016)
60 60
Government
Consumption
Services
0 -30
Airports: 444
Railways (km): 447
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: La Guaira, Maracaibo
Other
13.4%
23.4% U.S.A.
24.0%
President: Nicolás Maduro Moros
LatAm
Last elections: 20 May 2018 10.1% U.S.A.
41.4%

Next elections: 2023
Exports
Mexico
Imports
Central Bank President: Calixto Ortega Sánchez 5.6% EU-27
6.0%
India

13.0%
Other
LatAm China
China 17.2% 23.8%
EU-27
13.9%
8.2%

Moody’s: C Stable
S&P Global Ratings: SD N.M. Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: RD -

Other Other

Food
16.6%
8.8%

• Largest proven oil reserves in • Dependence on oil
the world • Deep political polarization
Exports
• Abundant wealth in natural • Runaway inflation Imports
resources • Exchange rate misalignments
Mineral
Fuels Manufact.
87.9% Products
74.6%
*Note: Regional calculation includes Venezuela

Other Countries
FOCUSECONOMICS Bolivia June 2019
Bolivia
Bolivia
Outlook stable
• Growth moderated in the final quarter of last year (Q4 2018: +3.3% year-
on-year; Q3: +4.0% yoy), constrained by a spike in imports. Nevertheless,
fundamentals remained healthy: Household spending maintained solid
momentum supported by low inflation, while fixed investment bounced
back. First-quarter economic activity likely softened, however. Lower
remittances in Q1 seems to have pinched consumption, despite low price
pressures, and a fall in LNG prices in the same period likely weighed
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages on merchandise export growth. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings ratified
2015-17 2018-20 2021-23
Bolivia’s BB- rating with a stable outlook, citing that its low debt burden
Population (million): 10.9 11.4 12.0 and resilient external sector should it is the fastest growing country in the
GDP (USD bn): 34.9 42.8 50.9
region this year.
GDP growth (%): 4.4 4.0 3.7
Public Debt (% of GDP): 46.3 56.2 57.4 • The economy should maintain solid momentum in the near-term. This
Inflation (%): 3.5 3.0 4.1 year, household spending is expected to accelerate amid stronger credit
External Debt (% of GDP): 32.3 34.6 35.3 growth, while new mining projects should buttress fix investment. A
widening of the fiscal deficit ahead of October’s presidential election and
Nicolas J. Aguilar
Economist volatility in commodity markets pose key downside risks to the outlook.
Our panel expects the economy to expand 4.1% this year, which is
unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2020.

9 4.6 • Inflation accelerated to 1.7% in May (April: 1.4%), the highest reading in
Bolivia
Latin America 2019 2020 nine months, amid higher prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks. A stable
World
6 4.3 currency, aided by the country’s managed foreign exchange regime, has
kept import prices in check for more than a decade. Our panel expects
3 4.0 inflation will end 2019 at 2.8%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from
last month’s forecast, and 2020 at 3.9%.
0 3.7
-3 3.4
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
GDP, annual variation in %. GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020

Source: INE. forecasts during the last 18 months.

15 4.5
Bolivia
Latin America
4.0
10
3.5
5
3.0
2019 2020
0 2.5
variation in %. forecasts during the last 18 months.
Source: INE.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 121

Annual Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 33.0 33.1 34.1 37.5 40.3 42.8 45.4 47.9 50.8 53.9
GDP (BOB bn) 228 228 235 259 278 298 320 345 372 401
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 17.1 16.3 -3.9 8.2 5.4 - - - - -
Prime Lending Rate (in %, eop) 8.00 7.36 7.82 7.86 7.77 8.72 8.86 8.83 8.82 8.80
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, eop) 6.91 6.90 6.94 6.94 6.94 6.97 7.12 7.26 7.38 7.50
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, aop) 6.91 6.90 6.91 6.95 6.93 6.95 7.05 7.19 7.32 7.44
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.7 -5.8 -5.6 -5.0 -4.9 -5.0 -4.9 -4.3 -3.7 -3.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.6 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 -2.1 -1.9 -1.6
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 2.9 -0.4 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.5
0
1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 2 | Exchange Rate | BOB per USD 3 | Current Account | % of GDP
5 8.2 15
10
7.7
0
5
7.2
0
-5
6.7
-5
Bolivia
Bolivia
-10 6.2 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from the National Statistical Institute
(INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística), the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Thomsons Reuters. See below for details.
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 Fiscal balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
2 Exchange rate, BOB per USD (eop). Source: Thomsons Reuters.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: BCB.

Fact Sheet
General Data Bolivia in the Region

Official name: Plurinational State of Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Bolivia
Bolivia Bolivia
Capital (Administrative): La Paz (1.8 m) 1.9% 0.5%
Capital (Judicial): Sucre (0.2 m)

Other cities: Cochabamba (1.2 m)
Area (km2): 1,098,581 Other Other
26.3% 23.0%
Population (million, 2018 est.): 11.2
Brazil Brazil
Population density (per km2, 2018): 10.2 35.0% 36.0%
Colombia
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 69.8 Argentina
6.4%

Argentina
Language: Spanish, Quechua and Colombia 10.4%
Aymara 8.4%
Mexico Mexico
Measures: Metric system 21.0% 23.5%
Time: GMT-4
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 99.2 2008-10 2011-13 2014-16 2008-10 2011-13 2014-16
100 110
80
Energy (2016)
70
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 872 60
Manufacturing Investment
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 306

40 Other Industry Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 7.8 Consumption
30
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 77.4
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 90.0 20 Private
Services Consumption
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 17.7
0 -10
Airports: 855
Chief Ports: Puerto Aguirre
Other
Japan Other U.S.A.
8.8%
Political Data 9.6% 12.6% 7.6%

Colombia
U.S.A. EU-27
President: Juan Evo Morales Ayma 6.3%
6.9%

Peru
5.8%
10.7%

Last elections: 12 October 2014 Brazil EU-27

Asia
Other
Argentina ex-Japan
Next elections: October 2019 12.8% 8.7%
5.8%
Exports
10.7%
Imports
Central Bank President: Pablo Ramos Sánchez China

7.7%
China
Argentina Korea
Brazil 22.5%
18.3% 6.2%
17.2%
Other India
5.5% Other
LatAm
LatAm
6.9%

S&P Global Ratings: BB- Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB- Stable
Other
1.3%
Other
Food 4.6% Food
7.4%

Mineral
Ores & Fuels

• Rich in natural resources • Landlocked country
Metals
23.4%
12.5%

• Improving currency autonomy • High dependence on the
• Exchange rate and price stability hydrocarbon sector Exports Imports

• Declining but still elevated levels
of poverty
Manufact.
Mineral Products
Fuels 78.9%
55.2%

FOCUSECONOMICS Ecuador June 2019
Ecuador
Outlook stable
Ecuador
• The economy likely lost further momentum in the first quarter as suggested
by overall economic activity, which decelerated throughout Q1 and grew
at a slower pace compared to Q4 2018. Domestic demand seems to have
come under pressure from ongoing fiscal adjustment aimed at bringing
down the hefty debt burden and easing liquidity constraints. Fixed
investment likely faltered on lower private sector credit growth, while
more downbeat consumer confidence signals a slowdown in household
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages spending in the quarter. Compounding matters, export growth fell again
in Q1, owing to a notably softer upturn in the overseas sales of oil. On 10
2015-17 2018-20 2021-23
Population (million): 16.5 17.3 18.0 June, the Ministry of Finance announced that it will launch an offer to buy
GDP (USD bn): 101.2 109.5 j back its 2020 bond that will be financed with the issuance of a new bond
GDP growth (%): 0.4 0.8 2.0
maturing in 2029. The liability management operation will seek to reduce
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.9 -0.8 0.1 the cost of servicing debt and boost the country’s debt profile.
Public Debt (% of GDP) 38.6 47.9 49.7
Inflation (%): 2.0 0.4 1.7
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.5 -0.5 0.3 • Although the program to strengthen fiscal discipline should alleviate
External Debt (% of GDP): 33.5 42.1 42.6 financing constraints, growth is expected to decelerate sharply this year as
the measures will undermine domestic demand. Government spending is
set to contract in the year, while private consumption and fixed investment
are expected to lose steam on tighter credit conditions. FocusEconomics
panelists project an expansion of 0.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from
last month’s forecast, and 0.7% in 2020.
• Inflation edged up to 0.4% in May from 0.2% in April. Higher fuel and
transport costs have pushed up prices. FocusEconomics panelists see
inflation rising further by year-end. Our panel expects inflation to end 2019
and 2020 at 0.7% and 1.1%, respectively.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity decelerates slightly in March

Nihad Ahmed
Economist Economic activity grew 2.0% over the same month of the previous year in
March, according to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de
Economic Activity | variation in %
Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador.
6
This was slightly down from February’s revised 2.2% expansion (previously
reported: +4.8% year-on-year).
4
In month-on-month, seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity picked up,

2 rising 0.2% in March. This was marginally up from a 0.1% upturn in February.
% Lastly, annual average growth in economic activity remained at 3.2% in March.
0
Year-on-year (left scale) Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect the
Annual Average (right scale)
-2
economy to grow 0.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s
projection. For 2020, the panel sees the economy expanding 0.7%.
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of economic activity
in %.
Source: Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador) and FocusEconomics
calculations.

Inflation | Consumer Price Index MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises in May

0.6 1.2
Consumer prices came in flat in May after rising 0.17% month-on-month in
Month-on-month (left scale) April. Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages led the downturn, followed
by healthcare. These offset higher prices for transport, which rose the most,
0.3 0.6
followed by recreation and culture, and housing, water, electricity, and gas.
% %
0.0 0.0
Meanwhile, inflation climbed to 0.4% in May from 0.2% in April. Lastly, the
annual average variation in consumer prices rose to 0.1% in May from minus
-0.3 -0.6
0.1% in April.
-0.6
-1.2 Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect inflation
of 0.7% at the end of 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of consumer price index in %. month’s estimate. The panel projects inflation ending 2020 at 1.1%.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INEC).

Annual Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 101.7 99.3 99.9 104.3 108.4 109.2 111.0 114.1 118.4 123.9
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.9 -2.4 0.7 4.4 3.9 0.8 1.6 2.8 3.7 4.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.8 0.1 -1.2 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.7 -0.1 -2.4 3.7 2.7 1.0 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.7 2.1 -0.2 3.2 2.9 -0.6 0.6 1.5 2.2 2.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.3 -6.2 -8.9 5.3 2.1 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 6.2 -0.6 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.9
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.8 -8.2 -9.6 12.2 5.8 0.7 0.8 1.6 2.3 3.1
Industry (ann. var. %) 3.6 -0.5 -1.5 0.0 -0.4 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 3.8 4.8 5.2 4.6 3.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.2 -6.0 -7.3 -4.5 -1.2 -1.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.7 3.4 1.1 -0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.6 4.0 1.7 0.4 -0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0
91-120 Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 5.18 5.14 5.12 4.95 5.62 5.80 6.00 6.14 6.21 6.28
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.7 -2.2 1.3 -0.5 -1.3 -0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.7 -2.2 1.3 -0.5 -1.4 -0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -2.0 -3.2 0.5 -0.9 -1.6 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 8.8 -22.4 -24.2 22.6 15.9 -2.0 1.6 3.1 3.9 4.8
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 - - - -
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq var. %) 0.8 0.1 - - - - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 - - - -
Economic Activity (IDEAC, ann. var. %) 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.6 2.2 2.0 - -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 37.55 41.93 40.04 41.51 39.30 38.08 38.94 37.89 39.10 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.27 0.39 -0.05 -0.25 0.10 0.47 -0.23 -0.21 0.17 0.00
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2023 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 15-Q4 19 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance
10 6 Real GDP Fiscal Balance

var. in % % of GDP
3 Barclays Capital 0.3 1.5 1.0 2.0
5
CABI 1.2 1.2 -2.8 -1.8
Capital Economics -1.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5
Citigroup Global Mkts 0.0 0.5 0.3 2.1
0
Credit Suisse -0.4 0.5 -0.6 1.6
0
EIU 0.2 1.1 -0.4 2.4
-3
Euromonitor Int. 0.8 0.9 -1.4 -1.0
Ecuador Ecuador Fitch Solutions -0.2 0.4 -1.8 -1.5
World World
Humboldt Management 1.0 - - -
-5 -6 JPMorgan -0.3 -0.8 -2.5 -1.2
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19
Oxford Economics 1.2 1.2 -3.2 -2.1
Torino Capital 0.2 0.7 -1.3 0.0
Summary
3 | GDP 2019 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts Minimum -1.0 -0.8 -3.2 -2.1
3 3
Maximum 1.2 1.5 1.0 2.4
Maximum Maximum
Consensus
Median 0.2 0.8 -1.3 -0.5
Consensus
Minimum Minimum
Consensus 0.3 0.7 -1.2 0.0
2 History
2
30 days ago 0.3 0.7 -1.3 -0.2
60 days ago 0.7 0.9 -2.3 -1.3
1
90 days ago 0.8 1.2 -2.4 -1.9
1 Additional Forecasts
0 IMF (Apr. 2019) -0.5 0.2 - -
World Bank (Apr. 2019) 0.1 0.4 - -
0
-1
-2 -1
5 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 6 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
12 4
Ecuador
Latin America
9 0
6 -4
Ecuador
Latin America
3 -8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources

7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
6.0 2 General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The
2019 2020 Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector
2019 2020
data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador) and
0 the National Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y
5.5 Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCE.

-2 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: BCE.
5.0 3 GDP, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-4 4 GDP, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEC.
6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCE.
7 Unemployment, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18
4.5 -6 months.
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2019
and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Exchange Rate
9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2023 | in % 10 | Inflation | Q1 15-Q4 19 | in % Consumer Price Index and Current Account
100 12 CPI Current Account

Ecuador variation in % % of GDP
Latin America Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020
75
8
Barclays Capital 0.7 0.5 -0.7 0.4
CABI 1.0 1.0 - -
50 Capital Economics - - -1.0 -0.5
Citigroup Global Mkts -0.6 0.5 -0.4 1.0
4
Credit Suisse 0.8 0.4 -1.0 0.1
25 DuckerFrontier - - - -
EIU 0.5 2.5 0.0 0.0
0 Euromonitor Int. - - -0.1 0.0
0
Ecuador Fitch Solutions 2.5 3.5 -0.1 0.2
Latin America Humboldt Management 1.0 - -0.4 -
-25 -4 JPMorgan 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.4
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Oxford Economics 0.9 1.2 -1.7 -0.7
Torino Capital -0.3 -0.2 0.7 0.7
Summary
11 | Inflation 2019 | evolution of fcst 12 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst Minimum -0.6 -0.2 -1.7 -0.7
4
Maximum 2.5 3.5 0.7 1.0
4
Median 0.8 0.5 -0.4 0.2
Consensus 0.7 1.1 -0.4 0.2
3 History
30 days ago 0.8 1.1 -0.4 0.3
2
60 days ago 1.3 1.4 -0.8 -0.4
2
90 days ago 1.5 1.8 -0.6 -0.6
1 IMF (Apr. 2019) 0.6 1.2 - -
0
Maximum Maximum
0
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum
-2 -1
13 | Current Account | % of GDP 14 | Trade Balance | USD bn
6 30
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
3 20
0 10
-3 0
Ecuador
Latin America
-6 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Notes and sources
15 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 16 | Trade Balance | evol. of fcst General:

0.5 0.4 Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary and
external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del
2019 2020 Ecuador) and the National Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional
0.0 de Estadística y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.
0.0
-0.4 9 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
Source: INEC.
10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %
-0.8 (eop). Source: INEC.
-0.5 11 Inflation, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-1.2 13 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCE.
14 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: BCE.
2019 2020
15 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020
-1.0 -1.6 forecasts during the last 18 months.
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 16 Trade balance, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18
months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Ecuador in the Region

Official name: Republic of Ecuador Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Quito (1.8m)
Other cities: Guayaquil (2.9m) Ecuador
2.9% Ecuador
2.1%
Cuenca (0.3m)
Area (km2): 283,561
21.7%
Population density (per km2, 2018): 60.0 25.3%
Population growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 1.3 Brazil Brazil

35.0% 35.9%
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 77.1 Colombia
6.3%
Language: Spanish, Quechua 7.5%

Argentina
Measures: Metric system Colombia 10.4%
Time: GMT-5 8.4%
Mexico Mexico
21.0% 23.5%
Economic Structure
100 120
80 90
Energy (2016)
60 60
Government
Consumption
Services
Airports: 432
Railways (km): 965
Chief Ports: Guayaquil, Manta
Other
Other 6.4%
Political Data
10.4%
Colombia
Russia U.S.A.
9.0%
President: Lenín Moreno Garcés 5.1%

U.S.A. 26.8%
Chile 34.5%
Last elections: 2 April 2017 5.4%
Next elections: 2021 Exports Other Imports

Central Bank Governor: Verónica Artola Jarrín Other
LatAm
20.2%
LatAm
17.3%
EU-27
13.3%

China
China EU-27 Other Asia
15.8%
5.2% Vietnam 16.5% ex-Japan
8.4%

Moody’s: B3 Negative
S&P Global Ratings: B- Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: B- Negative
Other Manufact. Food Other

Strengths Weaknesses 5.7% Products 7.9% 2.7%

6.8%
Mineral
Fuels
• Substantial oil and gas wealth • Dollarization limits scope to Food 14.3%
38.0%
• Tourism potential adjust to external shocks
• Diverse climate enables a wide • Polarized political system Exports

Imports
range of crops • High dependence on oil exports
Mineral
Fuels Manufact.
49.4% Products
75.0%

FOCUSECONOMICS Paraguay June 2019
Paraguay
Paraguay
Outlook worsens
• Incoming data suggests that growth slowed in the first quarter, continuing
the trend that started in the second half of 2018. In March, economic
activity fell for the fourth consecutive month and at the sharpest pace in
nearly a decade, owing mainly to reduced hydroelectric power generation,
as well as lower soy production amid adverse weather conditions.
Moreover, following feeble growth in January–February, sales plunged
in March primarily in the retail and manufacturing sectors, hinting that
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages domestic demand weakened. Meanwhile, available indicators signal
2015-17 2018-20 2021-23
that soft activity persisted at the outset of Q2. Merchandise exports
Population (million): 6.9 7.2 7.5 nosedived again in April on lower shipments of soy products, signaling
GDP (USD bn): 37.0 41.6 48.4
that agricultural production remained depressed.
GDP growth (%): 4.1 3.6 4.0
Public Debt (% of GDP): 16.9 21.3 22.5 • Despite a weak start to the year, growth is expected to remain firm overall
Inflation (%): 3.6 3.8 4.0 and well above the regional average. Solid consumer spending and
Current Account (% of GDP): 2.1 0.3 0.2
External Debt (% of GDP): 43.7 42.4 40.9 investment activity are seen underpinning the expansion. The recession
currently engulfing Argentina and disappointing activity in Brazil—the
Javier Colato
Economist country’s two main trading partners—cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics
panelists expect growth of 3.3% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage
points from last month’s estimate, and 3.8% in 2020.

15 4.2 • Inflation rose to 3.8% in May (April: 3.1%) on the back of higher car
Paraguay
Latin America purchase prices. At its 31 May meeting, the Central Bank left the policy
World
10 interest rate unchanged at 4.75%, the second hold after delivering two
3.9
consecutive rate cuts. Our panelists see inflation ending both 2019 and
5 2020 at 3.8%.
3.6
0
2019 2020
-5 3.3
GDP, annual variation in %. GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020
Source: BCP. forecasts during the last 18 months.

15 4.3
Paraguay
Latin America
10 4.1
5 3.9
2019 2020
0 3.7
variation in %. forecasts during the last 18 months.
Source: BCP.

Annual Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 40.3 36.1 36.0 38.9 40.9 41.1 42.8 45.4 48.3 51.4
GDP (PYG bn) 179,722 188,231 204,447 219,188 234,113 250,146 269,318 290,444 313,788 339,483
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 7.1 -2.1 2.0 5.9 1.5 3.4 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.9 -2.6 1.1 12.0 9.6 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 6.0 5.4 6.0 5.2 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 7.8 5.8 8.1 16.4 6.1 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, eop) 4,636 5,782 5,848 5,588 5,961 6,223 6,367 6,439 6,548 6,658
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, aop) 4,465 5,210 5,683 5,632 5,731 6,092 6,295 6,403 6,494 6,603
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.1 -0.4 3.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.0 -0.2 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 2 | Public Debt | % of GDP 3 | Current Account | % of GDP
3 60 10
Paraguay
Latin America
0 40 5
-3 20 0
Paraguay
Latin America
-6 0 -5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP,
Banco Central del Paraguay), Ministry of Treasury (MH, Ministerio de Hacienda) and Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 Balance of central government as % of GDP. Source: MH.
2 Public sector debt as % of GDP. Source: MH.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: BCP.

Fact Sheet
General Data Paraguay in the Region

Official name: Republic of Paraguay Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Asunción (3.2m)
Other cities: Ciudad del Este (0.2m) Paraguay
Paraguay
1.2%
0.8%
Pedro Juan Caballero (0.1m)
Area (km2): 406,752
23.0%
Population density (per km2, 2018): 17.3 27.0%
Brazil
Population growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 1.2 35.0%
Brazil
36.0%
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 77.6
Illiteracy rate (%, 2016): 5.3 Colombia
6.4%
Language: Spanish, Guaraní Argentina
7.5%
Measures: Metric system Argentina
10.4%
Colombia
Time: GMT-4 8.4%
Mexico Mexico
21.0% 23.5%
Economic Structure
100 100
80 80
Energy (2016)
60 60
Government
Consumption
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 51.0
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 7.7 20 20 Private
Services
Consumption
Transportation (2015) 0 0
Airports: 799
Railways (km): 30.0
Chief Ports: Asunción
Other
Turkey U.S.A.
Political Data 10.7% 8.7% 7.0%
Other

EU-27
20.8%

President: Mario Abdo Benítez Other EU-27
Argentina
12.2%
8.6%

Other
7.9% Asia
Last elections: 22 April 2018
Germany
ex-Japan
5.3%

Next elections: 2023 Chile
5.7%

6.9% Exports Imports
Central Bank President: José Cantero Sienra Asia ex-
Japan
Uruguay 7.3%

7.5% Brazil
24.0%
China
34.2%
Brazil


S&P Global Ratings: BB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB+ Stable
Other Other
2.3% 1.8%
Manufact. Food
Strengths Weaknesses Products 8.7%
9.7%
Mineral
• Favorable conditions for • Vulnerability to commodity price Fuels
13.7%
agriculture swings
Mineral
• Commitment to structural • Dependence on neighboring Exports Fuels
24.5%

Imports
reforms economies
Food
• Stable source of income from 63.5%

hydroelectric dams Manufact.
Products
75.7%

FOCUSECONOMICS Uruguay June 2019
Uruguay
Outlook stable
Uruguay
• The economy is expected to have decelerated further in the first quarter,

after annual growth fell to a near three-year low in Q4 2018 on slumping
consumption and investment activity. Amid rising unemployment, elevated
inflation and a gradually depreciating peso, private consumption appears
to have remained sluggish in Q1. On the external front, metrics were also
gloomy: Merchandise exports contracted in Q1 amid a still-frail regional
environment and sustained fears over a global trade spat. Turning to the
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages second quarter, incoming data has been mixed thus far: While exports of
2015-17 2018-20 2021-23 goods rebounded firmly in April, signaling a stronger external sector, an
Population (million): 3.5 3.5 3.6 uptick in inflation and further depreciation of the peso suggest domestic
GDP (USD bn): 55.4 58.7 66.6
GDP per capita (USD): 15,920 16,696 18,720 demand was constrained at the beginning of Q2.
GDP growth (%): 1.5 1.6 2.9
Public Debt (% of GDP): 64.0 71.0 72.6 • Growth will decelerate this year, against the backdrop of a weak external
Inflation (%): 8.2 7.4 6.5 environment amid downturns in Argentina and Brazil, and feeble domestic
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.2 -0.9 -1.0
demand conditions. Stagnant real wages, a weaker peso and still-high
unemployment will curb household spending growth. Meanwhile, fiscal
Almanas Stanapedis consolidation will be a priority for the next administration. FocusEconomics
Economist
analysts see growth at 1.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last
month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2020.
• Inflation fell from 8.2% in April to 7.7% in May, moving closer to the upper
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts bound of the Central Bank’s 3.0%–7.0% target. The deceleration was led
5
by cooling price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages, and
4
1.0
transport. FocusEconomics analysts forecast inflation to remain broadly
stable this year and see it ending 2019 at 7.6% and 2020 at 7.1%.
3
0.8
2
2019 2019
• At its latest monetary policy meeting on 2 April, the Central Bank increased
0.6 its M1+ target growth rate to 8.0%–10.0% for the second quarter of
1
2019. This was up from the previous quarter’s 6.0%–8.0% target but
0 0.4 below the actual Q1 annual growth rate of 10.4%. Furthermore, the Bank

maintained its inflation target range for the next 24 months at 3.0%–7.0%.
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. FocusEconomics analysts expect the money supply to increase 8.0% in
2019 and 10.0% in 2020.
• The peso weakened slightly in recent weeks, largely owing to a stronger

Inflation Change in CPI forecasts U.S. dollar throughout the better part of May. Nevertheless, the peso
11 7.8 found some support at the beginning of June, thanks to the Central
Uruguay 2019
Latin America 2020 Bank’s active role in the FX market and a slightly weaker greenback. On
9
7.4
7 June, the UYU traded at 35.3 per USD, depreciating 0.7% on a month-
on-month basis. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso depreciating
7.0
further moving forward. The panel predicts the UYU to end 2019 at 35.5
7
6.6
per USD and 2020 at 37.6 per USD.
5 6.2

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production slumps again in March

Industrial Production | variation in % Industrial production fell 5.5% over the same month of the previous year in
24 March, following a milder 2.5% year-on-year drop in February and marking
the worst reading so far this year. Meanwhile, industrial production, excluding
12 refinery output, declined 2.4% on an annual basis in March compared to the
2.1% dip in February.
%
0
Looking at a breakdown of the sub-components, a marked contraction in the
production of basic metals and derived products of oil and coal led the overall
-12
contraction.
Year-on-year Annual average
-24
Meanwhile, annual average variation in industrial output fell from 11.5% in
February to 9.1% in March, marking the lowest reading since September
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production
in %. 2018.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.
FocusEconomics panelists expect industrial production to increase 3.9% in

2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For
2020, the panel sees industrial output growth at 4.8%.
Our panellists see GDP to expanding 1.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from
last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2020.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation moderates in May

Inflation | Consumer Price Index Consumer prices rose 0.4% from a month earlier in May, unchanged from
3 9
April’s reading. A breakdown of the sub-components provided by the Statistical
Institute showed that 8 out of 12 saw an increase in prices, led by higher
prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, and transport, which more than
2 8
offset lower prices for household equipment and services.
1 7 Meanwhile, inflation fell from 8.2% in April to 7.7% in May. As a result, it moved
% %
closer to the Central Bank’s 3.0%–7.0% target range. Lastly, annual average
inflation ticked up to a two-year high of 8.0% in May, from 7.9% in the previous
0 6
Month-on-moth (left scale)

month.
-1 5 FocusEconomics analysts expect inflation to close 2019 at 7.6%, which is up
0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2020, panelists see
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. Expectations
of monthly variations of consumer price index in %.
inflation moderating and ending the year at 7.1%.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and Uruguay Central Bank (BCU).

Annual Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 58.1 54.0 52.1 60.1 58.5 58.4 59.4 62.0 66.3 71.3
GDP (UYU bn) 1,331 1,456 1,589 1,707 1,831 1,990 2,169 2,371 2,594 2,840
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.0 -0.5 0.1 4.6 1.5 1.4 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.5 2.2 2.9 -0.7 0.8 1.4 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.4 -9.2 -1.6 -15.7 -2.7 2.2 5.0 4.7 4.0 3.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 3.5 -0.6 -0.2 6.9 -4.8 3.4 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.4
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.8 -7.3 -6.2 0.5 -2.0 3.3 5.4 5.4 4.9 4.4
Money (ann. var. of M1+ %) 3.7 5.6 8.4 15.0 8.9 8.0 10.0 9.4 9.1 8.8
Average Deposit Rate (%, aop) 7.17 6.94 6.58 5.56 5.30 6.30 6.20 6.18 6.17 6.16
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 24.4 29.9 29.3 28.8 32.4 35.5 37.6 38.8 39.5 40.1
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, aop) 23.2 27.3 30.1 28.7 30.7 34.1 36.5 38.2 39.1 39.8
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.1 -0.9 0.6 0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.8 -0.5 0.3 0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 3.8 2.4 -0.4 -0.9 - - - - - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 15.5 16.1 19.5 1.7 -8.8 1.3 -2.5 -5.5 - -
Unemployment (% of active population) 9.0 8.7 8.6 7.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 9.5 - -
Money (ann. var. of M1+ %) 8.1 6.6 4.7 4.5 8.9 11.6 9.3 8.9 13.8 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 -0.4 2.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance
1 | Real GDP | 2000-2023 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 16-Q4 20 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance
8 6 Real GDP Fiscal Balance

var. in % % of GDP
4 4 BBVA Banco Francés 1.3 1.9 -3.1 -2.9
Capital Economics 2.0 1.5 - -
CINVE 1.4 1.9 - -
0 2 Citigroup Global Mkts 1.0 2.0 -2.7 -2.6
EIU 1.5 2.4 - -
-4 0 Equipos Consultores 0.9 1.1 - -
Uruguay Uruguay Euromonitor Int. 1.8 1.9 -2.9 -
Fitch Solutions 1.3 2.0 -3.4 -3.2
World World
-8 -2 HSBC 1.0 2.0 - -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Iecon - UdelaR 0.8 2.0 -3.5 -3.5
Itaú BBA 0.7 2.0 -3.1 -2.7
JPMorgan 1.0 1.0 -3.2 -3.3
3 | GDP 2019 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts Julius Baer 2.0 2.5 - -
Moody's Analytics 2.0 3.1 - -
4 4 Oikos 0.5 1.8 -3.6 -3.1
Oxford Economics 1.2 2.5 -3.3 -3.2
Puente S.A. 1.4 2.4 -3.2 -3.0
3 3 República AFAP 0.5 1.4 - -
Santander 0.7 1.8 - -
Summary
2 2 Minimum 0.5 1.0 -3.6 -3.5
Maximum 2.0 3.1 -2.7 -2.6
Median 1.1 2.0 -3.2 -3.1
1 Maximum 1 Maximum Consensus 1.2 2.0 -3.2 -3.1
Consensus Consensus History
Minimum Minimum
30 days ago 1.2 2.1 -3.4 -3.3
0 0 60 days ago 1.5 2.3 -3.3 -3.3
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 90 days ago 1.7 2.4 -3.4 -3.2
World Bank (Apr. 2019) 1.8 2.7 - -
5 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 6 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP CEPAL (Apr. 2019) 1.0 - - -
IMF (Apr. 2019) 1.9 3.0 - -
18 0
Uruguay
Latin America
15
-2
12
-4
9
Uruguay
Latin America
6 -6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources

7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
8.5 -2.5 General:

2019 2020 2019 2020 Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector
data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de
Estadística) and the Central Bank (BCU, Banco Central de Uruguay). See
8.0 -3.0 below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCU.

2 Quarterly GDP (non-seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: BCU.
7.5 -3.5 3 GDP, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.
6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCU.
7 Unemployment, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18
7.0 -4.0 months.
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2019
and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Exchange Rate
9 | Inflation | 2000-2023 | in % 10 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in % Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate
28 11 CPI Exchange Rate

Uruguay variation in % UYU per USD
Uruguay
Latin America Latin America Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020
21 BBVA Banco Francés 8.0 6.8 36.2 39.5
9 Capital Economics - - - -
CINVE 8.1 7.6 - -
14 Citigroup Global Mkts 7.5 7.0 35.0 37.0
DuckerFrontier - - - -
7 EIU 7.5 6.6 34.9 36.4
7
Equipos Consultores 7.7 8.1 35.8 38.2
Euromonitor Int. - - - -
5
HSBC 7.5 7.3 34.0 -
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Iecon - UdelaR 7.0 7.0 33.8 35.0
Itaú BBA 7.5 7.0 36.5 40.0
JPMorgan 8.0 7.0 36.0 -
11 | Inflation 2019 | evolution of fcst 12 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst Julius Baer - - - -
9 9 Oikos 6.9 6.6 37.4 40.6
Maximum
Consensus Oxford Economics 7.3 6.8 34.1 36.1
Minimum Puente S.A. 7.8 7.3 36.5 39.0
8 8 República AFAP 8.1 7.6 - -
Santander 8.2 7.7 36.2 38.0
Summary
7 7 Minimum 6.4 6.5 33.8 35.0
Maximum 8.2 8.1 37.4 40.6
Median 7.6 7.0 35.9 37.5
6 Maximum 6 Consensus 7.6 7.1 35.5 37.6
Consensus History
Minimum 30 days ago 7.5 7.1 35.2 37.0
5 5 60 days ago 7.5 7.0 34.8 36.6
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 90 days ago 7.4 6.9 34.5 36.2
IMF (Apr. 2019) 7.5 7.0 - -
13 | Exchange Rate | UYU per USD 14 | Current Account | % of GDP
42 3
Uruguay
Latin America
34
0
26
-3
18
10 -6 Notes and sources

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
General:
15 | UYU per USD | evol. of fcst 16 | Current Account | evol. of fcst Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The
Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary and
38 2 external sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto
Nacional de Estadística), the Central Bank (BCU, Banco Central de
2019 2020 2019 2020 Uruguay), IMF (International Financial Statistics) and Thomson Reuters.
See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
36 1 Forecast.

Source: INE.
34 0 10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %
(eop). Source: INE.
32 -1
13 Exchange rate, UYU per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.
14 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
15 Exchange rate, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18
30 -2 months.
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 16 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020
forecasts during the last 18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Uruguay in the Region

Official name: Oriental Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Uruguay
Capital: Montevideo (1.7 m) Uruguay
Uruguay
0.6%
1.1%
Other cities: Canelones (0.4 m)
Maldonado (0.1 m)
Area (km2): 176,215 Other
Other
22.6%
Population (million, 2018 est.): 3.5 27.6%
Brazil
Population density (per km2, 2018): 19.9 35.0% Brazil
36.0%
Colombia
7.5%
Language: Spanish Argentina
10.4%
Colombia
Mexico
Time: GMT-3 21.0%
Mexico
23.5%
Economic Structure
100 120
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 27.6 Agriculture 100 Net Exports
80
Energy (2016) 80

60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 226 60

40 Government
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2.0 20
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 53.0 20 Private
Services
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 7.6 0 Consumption
0 -20
Airports: 133
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Montevideo
Other
6.2% U.S.A.

EU-27
12.4%
8.0%

Argentina
26.3% 13.2%
President: Tabaré Vázquez EU-27
15.6%
Last elections: 30 November 2014 China
13.1%

Next elections: October 2019
Exports
Imports Asia
Other
Central Bank Govenor: Alberto Graña
MENA

Brazil
18.1%
ex-Japan
7.1%
Other
7.6%
LatAm
13.1%
Argentina
5.8% Other China
Brazil LatAm 24.5%
8.1%
21.7%
Moody’s: Baa2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BBB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB- Negative Other
0.9%
Mineral
Other
Fuels
Strengths Weaknesses Manufact. 15.6%
14.5%
Products
24.4%
• Stable political environment • Highly dollarized economy
• Strong public institutions • Dependence on neighboring

• Abundant natural resources economies Exports Imports
Agric.
• Small domestic market Food Raw Mat.
64.5% 10.1%
Manufact.
Products
. 69.9%

FOCUSECONOMICS
Notes and Statements

Notes June 2019
PUBLICATION NOTE COPYRIGHT NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of © Copyright 2019 FocusEconomics S.L.U. Duplication,
economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any
monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise
the annual figures due to different forecast panels. without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly
prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved
The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to under International Copyright Conventions.
economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and
include the following countries: The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast is a monthly publication
of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or
Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:
Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador,
El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, FocusEconomics S.L.U.
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Tobago.
Mercosur (5 countries): Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and
Uruguay.
Venezuela is included in the LatinFocus report but not in regional

or world aggregates.
Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the

latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.
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The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics
and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate,
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ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR KEY INDICATORS IN 131 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS
MAJOR ECONOMIES G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Euro area, France, Germany & Italy),
Switzerland and overview of the BRIC countries
EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,
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Zealand
ASEAN ECONOMIES Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam,
Australia and New Zealand
LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela
CENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras,
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REAL SECTOR GDP per capita, Economic Growth, Consumption, Investment, Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate,
Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money, Inflation Rate, Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, International Reserves and External Debt
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LATINFOCUS

NICOLAS J. AGUILAR LINDSEY ICE JOAN ARGILAGÓS

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in % Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, % of GDP

2017 2018 2019 2020

Note: Latin America, Mercosur and World estimates exclude Venezuela.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |2

Economic Outlook GDP in % Change in Forecast

fiscal and political challenges weigh on Brazil’s outlook; and

ARGENTINA | 2019: -1.3%

runaway inflation and nosediving public investment weigh on

weaker peso. The uncertain outcome of this October’s elections

BRAZIL | 2019: 1.4%

modestly from 2018. Reform uncertainty will weigh on the business

CHILE | 2019: 3.1%

tensions and a slowing global economy weigh on exports.

Nevertheless, solid fixed investment, buoyed by upbeat credit

COLOMBIA | 2019: 3.1%

investment activity thanks to infrastructure and oil sector projects.

MEXICO | 2019: 1.5%

the unfolding diplomatic crisis has already shaken USMCA-related

meanwhile, are also expected to weigh on growth this year.

PERU | 2019: 3.6%

non-mining investment and infrastructure spending decelerates.

than-expected economic landing in China and political uncertainty

Note: Change in forecast refers to 2019.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |3

Inflation Inflation in % Change in Forecast

are to remain moderate, held back by weak demand pressures

ARGENTINA | 2019: 39.1%

pass-through pressures from a weaker peso continued to

slower food inflation and tight financial conditions.

BRAZIL | 2019: 4.1%

Central Bank’s 2019 target of 4.25%.

CHILE | 2019: 2.7%

rising closer to the midpoint of the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0%

increase gradually amid slower GDP growth.

COLOMBIA | 2019: 3.3%

for accommodation, water and electricity, and transport costs

year amid more tepid private consumption growth.

MEXICO | 2019: 3.7%

rise in energy costs, landing outside Banxico’s target range of

policy uncertainty fades.

PERU | 2019: 2.4%

by excess production capacity.

Note: Change in forecast refers to 2019.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |4

Monetary Policy Interest rate in % Change in Forecast

May amid a troubling external backdrop. In contrast, policymakers 2019 May-19

ARGENTINA | 2019: 54.02%

will keep tight albeit softening monetary conditions this year.

BRAZIL | 2019: 6.33%

rate at its record low of 6.50%, as the sluggish recovery continues

CHILE | 2019: 3.04%

unexpectedly cut the monetary policy rate by 50bp to 2.50%,

remain accommodative to ensure clear transition towards the

COLOMBIA | 2019: 4.47%

interest rate stable at 4.25%. Relatively muted price pressures,

MEXICO | 2019: 7.92%

on 16 May amid elevated inflation, as well as rising inflation

push policymakers to begin lowering the target rate as early as