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situation. Overspeeding and complete disregard for and lax implementation of traffic rules and
regulations have contributed to the rise of casualties on the road.
Life is considered most sacred, and there seems to be a strong disagreement whether to put
a monetary value on it or not. Some people are uncomfortable or emotionally very reluctant to
assess traffic accidents involving human lives in terms of money. For while properties and financed
may be restored, human lives lost cannot. Putting a monetary value to human life or to a fatal
accident may be a topic for heated debate but the same lack of cost estimates leaves many,
including the decision makers, still groping in the dark.
But if it would create awareness of the worsening road safety situation in our country alone,
an estimation of the losses attributed to traffic accidents is very well justified. Like the growing
concern for the environment, it is high time that the government takes action in promoting safety
on the road. If realistic estimates of the cost of losses can be made, there is no reason why the
government cannot take action in reducing it. The estimate must truly reflect the actual worsening
condition of our roads as far as safety is concerned. While it is recognized that data gaps exist,
reasonable assumptions must be made as an initial attempt. Improvement of the estimate can be
done in the future as data become readily available and collection efforts improve.

7.7.1 Uses of Accident Cost Estimates

The reason for estimating accident costs may seem obvious but it is seldom expressed
explicitly. Costs are sometimes used for general statements such as “Accidents in (country) are
worth more than (so many) (million dollars) per year,” or accidents are (so many percent of a
country’s GDP). For such purposes, ballpark figures are sufficient as long as they are of the right
magnitude. (Andreassen 1988). Costs are also required for assessing the value of improving a
highway, installing traffic signals, enforcing specific traffic laws, putting reflective plates n trucks,
various safety countermeasures, etc. When these are to be considered, a very specific cost is
required to determine the benefit.
The promotion of traffic safety contributes to improvements of the welfare of society in
two ways (OECD Report, 1981):
a. BY voiding accidents and accident consequences the losses of resources caused by
accidents are avoided as well.

b. By avoiding accidents and their social costs, resources can be saved, which otherwise
would be devoted to the relief of accident consequences.

The first point includes the avoidance of production losses due to the incapacity of accident
victims, damage to capital goods, and traffic congestion resulting from accidents.
The second point includes the avoidance of the following costs: medical treatment of
persons involved in accidents, repair of property damage, police investigation, legal and court
procedures, and insurance administration. The resources saved can be used elsewhere to increase

7.7.2 Approaches to Estimating Cost of Accidents

A number of methodologies to estimate the cost of accidents have been introduced in the
past, including the following:
a. Gross output/ human capital method
b. Life insurance method
c. Court award method
d. Implicit public sector valuation method
e. Net Output Method
f. Value of risk change or willingness-to-pay method

These methods are documented by Alfaro, Chapuis, and Fabre (1994); Jacobs (1995); and
Babtie Ross Silcokc and TRL (2003).
The life insurance method measures the valuation of risk associated with road usage and is
determined by the premiums that he driver population is willing to pay. On the other hand, the curt
award method is based on the actual compensation settlements awarded, which may be influenced
by the degree of negligence found. In the implicit public sector valuation method, a set of implicit
values is used to value human lives.
However, most of these estimation methods have been generally discredited (Babtie Ross
Silcock and TRL 2003). To date, the two commonly accepted methods to estimate the economic
cost of accidents are as follows:

a. Gross output or human capital method. This approach focuses on the economic
consequences of a road accident, and usually also includes a notional sum that reflects
the pain, grief, and suffering incurred by the persons involved and their family. It is
based on the idea that the value to society of avoiding a death or injury is related to the
potentially lost economic output and resources.
b. Willingness-to-pay method. This is based on the amount that a person is willing to pay
to avid an accident. This is a very subjective measure that reflects individual
preferences, values, and perceptions of risk. It is extremely difficult to reliably estimate
and will vary significantly from person to person and from place to place.

The willingness-to-pay method has become the preferred costing method in many
developed countries as it has been recognized as the best way to measure the costing of accidents
for the purpose of benefit-cost analysis. Recognizing the difficulty of implementing this method
in developing countries due to its data requirements (the method relies on the completion of a
complex questionnaire), the ADB publication Road Safety Guidelines for the Asian and Pacific
Region recommends the gross output method. The guideline considers is as the appropriate method
to be used in developing countries because it relates more closely to direct economic impacts and
the practical measurable consequences of road accidents. That is the approach used in this cost
estimation, and the detailed methodology for dealing with data gaps, underreporting, etc. is in line
with the guidance document provided to the author by the ADB

7.7.3 Determination of Cost Components

Consistent with the gross output method and the ADB guidelines, the accident cost
components can be grouped into five major cost categories shown in table 7.5:

Lost output
Lost output is generally considered as the largest resource cost incurred due to a traffic
accident. It is an expression of the loss to society of the productive manpower, be it permanent or
temporary. Its value varies widely, ranging from a one day lost time for minor injury incident, to
long years of foregone work for those killed or permanently disabled.

Pain, grief and suffering

Strictly speaking, mental suffering, pain and other emotional factors cannot be assessed.
They defy evaluation in terms of money, and must therefore be taken as a true intangibles.
However, in practice some countries add an assumed lump sum or proportional amount to
measured accident costs to allow for emotional losses.

Medical treatment and hospital costs

The treatment and rehabilitation of traffic accident victims require the use of medical
resources, i.e., work input of the personnel (ambulance men, doctors, nurses, etc.) and provision
of rescue equipment, hospital beds, instruments, and other medical aids, such as drugs. If injuries
caused by traffic accidents could be avoided, these resources could be made available for other
purposes, such as treatment of the sick, or their basic components could be transferred to other
uses. The following components can be distinguished:
a. On-the-spot medical treatment
b. Transport and treatment on the way
c. Treatment at the hospital
d. Rehab at the hospital
e. Outpatient follow-up treatment
f. General treatment

Although considerable parts of the medical expenses are paid only to those who provide
such medical services, they may still be regarded as losses to the economy because such services
would have been otherwise provided elsewhere if the traffic accidents had not occurred. The same
applies to the repair charges of damaged vehicles and legal fees.

Property damage
Property damage necessitates or replacement costs of vehicles, goods, and road
accessories. In addition, property damage can result in further welfare losses when capital goods
(e.g., trucks, cars for commercial use, equipment, etc.) are damaged or destroyed and their
productive services are lost. When private passenger cars are damaged, additional welfare losses
may result from the loss of use.
For the determination of property-damage-only involvement costs, insurance records can
be used and the compensation taken as indicator of social losses. Account has to be taken of the
fact that insurance companies generally pay compensation for liability cases only, and are liable
for accidents brought on by one’s own fault only to the extent of a contracted limit. In addition, it
should be noted that there may be considerable difference between the cases recorded by the
insurance companies and the police records.

With respect to property losses, evaluation is relatively easy because the market prices and
repair charges for the property lost or damaged can be regarded as a good expression of the
objective values.

Administrative costs
The police are called out to the sites of traffic accidents to control traffic and investigate
and record the accidents. Total work hours required for handling traffic accidents have to be
considered. A patrol car is dispatched to each traffic accident site to control traffic and deal with
the accident. Since the patrol car is also used for other purposes, half of its total expenses will be
taken up in connection with traffic accidents. In addition, the police headquarters uses cameras for
photographing accident sites. Some of the other components of administrative costs are judicial
costs and insurance administrative costs. The functions of the court dealing with traffic accidents
include (a) civil suits for damages, (b) civil mediation, (c) criminal suits for negligence, and (d)
summary criminal procedures. Most of the damage caused by traffic accidents is covered by
insurance, and the operating expenses required to support this system also constitute part of the
costs and expenses incidental to traffic accidents.
Figure 7.14 provides a summary of the different cost components that may be involved in
each accident, depending on the type of severity:

Based on the diagram, a fatal accident would incur loss of productive life of the victim:
pain, grief, and suffering of loved ones left; medical expense when the victim was brought to the
hospital before dying; a number of miscellaneous expenses that would constitute administrative
costs; and cost of a totally wrecked vehicle or cost of repair of a damaged vehicle. Similar cost
components may be incurred when a victim becomes permanently disabled due to a serious injury
accident. A minor injury accident would still incur some medical costs and require some paper
work, and, possibly, minor repair of a slightly damaged vehicle.

Other assumptions
A range of assumptions underlie the recommended methodology. The major additional
assumption is that all accident are costed out as though all steps were taken to restore people,
vehicles, and property as closely as possible to their condition prior to the accident. It means that:
• injured persons receive full medical treatment, are treated in a hospital if seriously injured,
and recuperate for the recommended period;
• injured persons are considered to be employed (or potentially employable);
• vehicles are repaired according to manufacturer’s specifications; and
• an accident report is made, all the proper paperwork is completed, and insurance claims
are filed and recorded accurately.

Some indirect costs of accidents

Aside from the major cost components previously discussed, there are other costs that may
be attributed to traffic accidents. One is the cost of transportation services for the injured from the
accident spot to the hospital. In a number of cases, the law-abiding “offender” is the one that brings
the victim to the hospital. In some cases, a concerned citizen may offer his or her vehicle to bring
the victim to the hospital. It is seldom that a hospital ambulance would be called to the rescue of
the victim, although at present, ambulance services provided by some rescue teams may be
summoned to the accident site when notified by a phone call.

Losses caused by traffic congestion

Traffic accidents often caused bottlenecks. A few minutes of congestion can easily create
gridlocks at intersections and several kilometres of vehicle queues in urban areas. The people
affected by such bottlenecks incur loss of time and fuel, and suffer both mental and physical stress.

7.7.4 Estimation of Cost Components

Following the ADB guidelines, the gross output method requires a procedure that is
relatively easy to follow. What remains is the problem of collecting pertinent data that will be used
as inputs in the step-by-step procedure. While collection of such data does not pose a major
problem in developed countries, it becomes a major task in developing countries like the
Philippines. It must be stressed once again that traffic accident data are very valuable: data
collection, therefore, requires conscientious effort on the part of the agencies concerned.

Underlying assumptions
The gross output method requires input to a number of variables incorporated in each cost
component. Some of these variables require estimation from available secondary data. However,
some variables cannot estimation unless comprehensive primary data collection is conducted. In
this case, assumptions based on the experience of other countries are made. Nevertheless,
estimation of the cost of accidents has to be updated on a regular basis. At this point, it is very
important to determine those on variables that have deficiency in data availability. Determination
of these variables can then be incorporated in the research agenda on mad safety. The National
Center for Transportation Studies of the University of the Philippines has actually initiated the
formulation of research agenda as far as traffic safety is concerned. One notable research on traffic
analysis focusing on hospital records (Vibal 2003) proved to be very valuable in determining the
extent of severity of human damage attributed to road crashes.

Average age of seriously injured

Based on Vibal’s study, “Traffic Accident Analysis through Hospital Records” (2003),
which examined 617 cases of serious injuries in road accidents (including forty-four fatalities), the
average age of seriously injured persons, was twenty-eight years. The most seriously injured
persons were in the age range of thirteen to thirty-nine years.
Average age of fatalities
This has been assumed to be the same as the average age of persons seriously injured.

Damage to property
Damage to property can be obtained from insurance companies based on property damage
claims for motor vehicle accidents. Property damage costs can vary considerably depending on the
degree of wreckage sustained. It may therefore be necessary to obtain estimates based on accidents
stratified according to severity.
As previously mentioned, the repair costs are calculated as if all vehicles are repaired
according to manufacturer's specifications, since represents the resource cost to the community of
vehicle damage. Information on average claims was supplied by the Insurance Sure the Philippines
(ISAR) on a confidential basis. The average claim was converted to 2003 figures, and allowance
was then added for total wrecks, owners cost input and towing. In general, vehicles involved in

fatal serious injury accidents will be damaged more severely than ears accidents in which nobody
is injured. No data are currently available the relative cost of damage by injury severity.
International experience indicates that the relative repair cost of accident types compared average
cost is as follows:
Fatal accident 1.55 times average cost
Serious injury 1.40 times average cost
Minor Injury 1.25 times average cost
Damage-only 0.85 times average cost
These translate to
P46,500 per vehicle for a fatal accident
P42,000 per vehicle for a serious injury accident
P37,500 per vehicle for minor injury accident
P25,500 per vehicle for a damage-only accident

Administrative costs
The cost is composed of several components as there are many agencies administering
services related to the accident—traffic police, emergency response services, insurance, and legal
services. It is therefore, very difficult to compute this cost. This is compounded by the problems
of underreporting and the lack or complexity of administrative linkages. The ADB guideline is
followed in estimating the administrative cost. The ADB recommends that the administrative cost
be taken as a percentage of total resource costs (sum of lost output, medical and property damage
Similar to property damage, the administrative costs associated with an accident are likely
to depend on its severity. In a more serious accident, vehicles may remain on the road longer, and
more policemen may be assigned to direct traffic. There is also the longer and more complicated
process of investigation, claims and follow-ups, and possibly legal proceeding.
The ADB recommends the following:
Fatal accident 0.2% of total fatal accident resource cost
Serious injury 4% of total serious injury resource cost
Minor injury 14% of total minor injury resource cost
Damage-only 10% of total damage-only resource cost

Medical costs
Medical costs vary widely depending on the severity of the injury. Serious injury could
mean long hospitalization and rehabilitation.
a. Serious injury
i. Stay in the hospital
In a recent study of traffic accidents using hospital records (Vibal 2003), victims' hospital
stay depending on the severity of injury is as follows: six to eight days and seventeen days for
typical and more severe pedestrian accidents, respectively; five to six days for typical motorcycle
accident and nineteen days for more severe motorcycle cases. For the purpose of this study, an
average of eight days of stay will be used for estimating cost.
During this eight-day period of stay in the hospital, it is necessary to take into consideration
the amount incurred due to hospital care. Based on the rates in a tertiary hospital with daily visits
by a general practitioner, two visits by a specialist, drugs and medicine, and one episode of minor
surgery plus an allowance for the cost of ambulance transfer to the hospital, total cost of hospital
care is estimated at P4,000 per day. This amount Paid in full by the patient without subsidy from
the government.

ii. Recuperation period

While recuperating at home, the injured may still be undergoing medication. During this
period, the person is also off work. As there are no data with regard to recuperation period,
information from experience of other countries may be used. In the case of Australia, a study has
shown that, on the average, a person recuperating from hospital treatment will have an additional
2 days off work for every day of stay in the hospital. This has been confirmed by medical
practitioners in Manila.

b. Minor injury
In the case of minor injuries, two visits to a doctor can be reasonably assumed; the first
visit is for initial assessment of the injury while the second is for follow-up.
Costs incurred during each visit may be as follows: P250 for consulting services and
another P250 fur medication, bandages, etc. Say, P500 per consultation.

c. Permanent disability
When a seriously injured person becomes permanently disabled, the cost will include
medical expenses, special equipment (wheelchair or special bed), and employing a nurse. In case
a family member acts as caregiver, the cost also includes lost income due to his or her absence
from work. In the absence of data on long-term care, about P100 per day is assumed to cover the
costs of long-term care for the permanently disabled.
Based on limited records so far inputted to TARAS of the DPV/H, the following
information was obtained. (It is recognized that when more data are collected, better estimates can
be obtained.)
Average number of vehicles involved in each accident type:
1.4 vehicles per fatal accident
1.5 vehicles per serious injury accident
1.5 vehicles per minor injury accident
1.8 vehicles per property damage accident

Average number of injuries in a fatal accident:

1.1 fatalities
0.4 serious injuries

Average number of injuries in a serious injury accident:

1.5 serious injuries

Average number of injuries in a minor injury accident:

1.1 minor injuries


In this section, computation of average cost for each type of accidents will be shown. The
estimates are based on values of the different variables explained in the previous chapter (Cost
Components) and follow the calculation procedure given on table 7.6.

7.8.1 Estimation of Cost of a Single Fatal Accident

The estimation of the cost of a fatal accident requires the calculation of the five cost
components: lost output; pain, grief, and suffering; medical cost administrative costs; and cost of
repair of the damaged vehicle (see table 7.7). The estimated average cost of a fatal accident is
approximately P23 million.

7.8.2 Estimation of Cost of a Single Serious Injury Accident

The same cost items are considered in estimating the average cost N3/4,000"us injury
accident (table 7.8). The estimated average cost is

7.8.3 Estimation of Cost of a Single Minor Injury Accident

The estimation of the average cost of a minor injury accident requires the calculation of
three cost items: medical cost, repair of vehicle cost, and administrative costs. A single minor
injury accident would amount to approximately P70,000 ( table 7.9).

7.8.4 Estimation of Cost of a Single Property-Damage-Only Accident

Aside from the cost of repair of a damaged vehicle, administrative cost is also incurred
when a damage-only accident occurs. A damage-only accident would cost about P55,000 (table
7.10). (This excludes cost only may be incurred due to repair or replacement of damaged road
signs and other street fixtures.)

7.8.5 Summary of Average Cost of Each Type of Accident

Table 7.11 shows the summary of average cost of accident by type. Using the property-
damage-only (PDO) cost as point of reference, the average cost for fatal injury is about 40x higher;
for serious injury, 6x; and for minor injury, 1.25x.


Once the average cost of each type of accident is obtained, the total cost of accidents may
be estimated by multiplying the total number of accidents of each type by the average cost. Again,
the types the analysis are as follows:
a. Fatal accident
b. Serious injury accident
c. Minor injury accident
d. Property-damage-only accident

7.9.1 Data Availability and Quality

In the Philippines, researchers rely mostly on accident data provided by the police. More
specifically, the Traffic Management Group which is responsible for accident data keeping for the

whole country. It is generally accepted that there is a serious problem in the reporting of accidents
because of the following reasons:
a. Although the Philippines recognizes the UN Organization's definition of traffic death—
one that occurs within thirty days of the event—our count is still based on "death at
scene." Even though most countries still use different definitions, their accident
statistics are adjusted by applying correction factors to conform to the standard
definition. Our current system of accident data keeping makes statistical adjustment
almost impossible to do.
b. A major cause of the underestimating of traffic accident statistics in the Philippines is
the lack of an effective means of updating fatality and injury data. At present, the
country has yet to develop a system of transferring records from hospitals to the TMG
c. Recording and updating are prone to errors as done manually. There are also cases of
records getting lost or of misplaced.

Even the PNP itself acknowledges that there is a serious problem of underreporting of
traffic accidents. Aside from the absence of an efficient road accident data system, there is a great
discrepancy between hospital and police records. Figure 7.15 shows the official statistics from the
health sector. Deaths attributed to traffic accidents in 1970, 1980, 1990, and 1998 are available
from the Philippine Health Statistics. In the 2003, Philippine National Injury Survey funded by the
UNICEF, approximately 9,000 fatalities were attributed to road traffic accidents, a tremendous

increase from the 1998 of 3,800. For the year 2002, the police, in contrast, reported only 801
fatalities, clearly show a very serious problem of underreporting.
The situation of underreporting for injury cases is far worse than that for fatal cases. A
number of previous studies have highlighted the relationship between the number of crash deaths
and injuries. Barrs et. al. (1998) quoted a generic ratio of 10:25 injuries to deaths (with half
requiring hospitalization), but the only developing country example Included was from an urban
hospital study in Ethiopia, which reported sixteen injuries for every death (Dessie and Lawson
1991). A three-month study conducted by Malaysia's Public Health Department (Rahman 2002)
reported 19,271 casualties receiving treatment at hospitals. Of these, 1.3 Percent were fatal and 79
percent received outpatient treatment. Thus for every road death, there were fifteen hospitalized
and another sixty-one slightly injured.
Underreporting was believed to be much greater for injuries than deaths (Jacobs,
Aeron-Thomas, and Astrop 2000). To estimate global road casualties, the study adopted a ratio of
100 injuries to a fatality for high-income countries, while a conservative road death to injury ratio
of 20:30 was used for low-income countries. In the first Safe Community Conference on Cost
Calculation and Cost-Effectiveness in Injury Prevention and Safety Promotion, a ratio of 70 slight
injuries and 15 serious injuries to every death was suggested to apply to most countries (Barrs et
al. 1998).
In the case of the Philippines, three major hospitals having the highest number of in-
patients with traffic accident-related cases were studied (Vibal 2003). The study primarily focused
on fatal and serious injury cases only. Out of the 1,242 cases (with 94 unspecified cases), 67 (5.4
percent) were fatal cases and 1,081 (87 percent) were serious injury. cases. This gives a serious
injury to death ratio of 16:1, which is consistent with the results of the previous studies mentioned
above. In the absence of data on slight injury cases, a ratio of 70:1 will be adopted.
It is far more complicated to estimate the number of property damage-only accidents
because such cases are even more underreported. In the absence of data on this, the estimation of
the number of this type of accident will be based on the ADB guideline of five damage-only
accidents for each injury accident. Again, as data collection efforts improve, a local value for the
Philippines may be estimated more accurately.
In preparation for the estimation of national cost of accidents, it is necessary to determine
the numbers of accidents by type since the individual costs are estimated using that same unit.

Based on the TMG’s statistics of recorded traffic accidents for the year 2002, the breakdown for
each type is shown in table 7.12.

Applying the corrections attributed to underreporting and the other assumptions adopted in
the previous section, the number of accidents is adjusted (table 7.13).

7.9.2. Calculation of National Costs

Applying the average cost of each type of accidents, the national cost of accidents is
calculated as shown in table 7.14

Without any corrections to the accident statistics collected by the responsible agency, the
cost of traffic accidents is about P2.5 billion or US$ 45 million each year. However, this is a gross
underestimation as it has been shown that there is too much underreporting of accidents. The
estimate cost based on the health sector data amounting to P105 billion (or US$ 1.9 billion) may
still be on the low end because many cost components were not accounted for during the
application of the gross output method. But this cost is already about 2.6 percent of the Philippines’
GDP. A better estimate of the cost is expected when more accurate statistics are made available
due to improved data collection system.

1. In planning for highway improvements in a particular region, the traffic accidents have to
be analyzed to give priority to those hazardous or accident-prone locations. The table below
shows the twenty sections considered for analysis. Sections marked with an asterisk (*)
have almost similar characteristics in terms of physical and traffic conditions. Among these
marked sections, which would you consider hazardous at 95 percent level of confidence?
a. classic statistic method
b. rate quality control method

2. The five-leg roundabout shown below was the scene of 850 accidents in 2004. The annual
average daily traffic is shown in the corresponding route OD table. Determine the accident
rate of the roundabout.

3. The figure below shows the road network inside a town proper. According to accident
statistics over the last three years, the ten intersections having the highest number of
accidents are shown in the corresponding table. The total entering traffic for each
intersection is also shown. Identify the intersections that may be considered hazardous,
using 95 percent level of confidence.

4. The table below shows the average cost of traffic accident by type:

Based on the experience of a similar country:

Ratio of seriously injured victims to fatal victims: 16:1
Ratio of minor injured victims to fatal victims: 60:1
Number of vehicle-damage-only accidents: 5 times the number of serious injury

Based on accident statistics:

a. 1 fatal accident → 1.1 fatalities + 1.5 seriously injured victims + 1.0 minor injured
victim + 1.6 damaged vehicles
b. 1 serious accident → 1.5 seriously injured victims + 2.0 minor injured victims + 1.2
damaged vehicles
c. 1 minor accident → 1.0 minor injured victim + 0.5 damaged vehicle
d. 1 vehicle-damage-only accident → 1.4 damaged vehicles

For a particular year, if the number of fatal victims (based on hospital data) is 5,000,
estimate the total accident cost.

 Alfaro, J. M. Chapuis, and F. Fabre, eds. 1994. COST 313. Socioeconomic cost of road
accidents. Report EUR 15464 EN, Brussels, Commission of the European Communities.
 Andreassen, D.C. 1988. The application of cost data in traffic safety- Traffic safety theory
and research methods. Netherlands, April.
 Asian Development Bank (ADB). 1997. Road safety guidelines for Asian and Pacific
Region. Regional Initiatives in Road Safety, Asian Development Bank.
 Babtie Ross Silcock and TRL Limited. 2003. Guidelines for estimating the cost road
crashes in developing countries. Final Report, Department for International Development
Project R7780, Transport Research Laboratory, May.
 Barrs, P., G. Smith, S. Baker, and D. Mohan. 1998. Injury prevention: An international
perspective. Oxford University Press.
 Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH). 2003. Cost estimation and update
handbook. Sixth Road Project. Capacity Building component. C08 Road Infrastructure
Safety Project, DPWH.
 Dessie, T.C. Lawson. 1991. The occurrence and driver characteristics associated with
motor vehicle injuries in Addis, Ababa, Ethiopia. Journal of Tropical Medicine Hygiene

 Garber, Nicholas J., and Lester A. Hoel. 1999. Traffic and highway engineering. Second
ed. brooks/Cole Publishing Co,
 International Road Traffic and Accident Database (IRTAD). 1998. Special report,
definitions and data availability. OECD-RTR Road Transport research Programme.
 Jacobs, G. 1995. Costing road accidents in developing countries. Overseas Road Note 10.
Crowthorne, Berkshire: Transport Research Laboratory.
 Jacobs G., A. Aeron-Thomas, A. Astrop. 2000. Estimating global road fatalities. TRL
Report 445, Transport Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, Berkshire.
 Lamm, Ruediger, Basil Psarianos, and Theodor Mailaender. 1999. Highway design and
traffic safety engineering handbook. McGraw-Hill.
 Melhuish, C. 2001. The first GRSP ASEAN Seminar, March, Tokyo.
 National Epidemiology Center (NEC). 1998. Philippine health statistics. NEC, Department
of Health Philippines.
 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. 1981. Methods for evaluating
road safely measures. OECD Road Research Group Report, June.
 Pline, J. L., ed, 1992. Traffic engineering handbook. Fourth Ed. Washignton, D.C.: Insitiute
of Transportation Engineers and Prentice Hall Inc.
 Robertson, H. Douglas, ed. 2000. Manual for transportation engineering studies.
Washington, D.C.: Institute of Transportation Engineers and Prentice-Hall Inc.
 Sigua, R. 2000. The state of road safety in the Philippines. Journal on Public Policy.
Quezon City: UP Center for Integrative and Development Studies and the University of
the Philippines Press.
 Tanner, J.C. 1956. Accidents before and after the provision or removal of automatic traffic
signals. RRL Note. No. 2887.
 Traffic Management Group (TMG). 2002. Report of traffic accident statistics.
 Trinca, G. W., Johnston, I., B. J. Campbell, F.A. Haight, P. Knight, M. Mackay, A. J.
McLean, and E. Petrucelli. 1988. Reducing traffic injury: A global challenge. Melbourne:
Royal Australasian College og Surgeons.
 Vibal, T. 2003. Traffic accident analysis through hospital records. Master’s thesis, College
of Engineering, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City.



This chapter introduces the classic four-step forecasting model which was developed more
than sixty years ago in the United States. The method has deficiencies, and other new ones have
been developed over the past ten years. However, the method is still widely used as a tool over
analyzing travel demand and estimating future traffic flow. Most commercially available software
for forecasting travel demand are still largely based on this four-step model. It provides a tool for
traffic engineers and planners to analyze travel demand and traffic situation in a given study area.
Prior to the application of the four-step model, it is always necessary to obtain as much
information as possible on the socioeconomic indicators of the area under study, such as
population, income distribution, car ownership, etc. Using statistical tools, these socioeconomic
variables may be forecasted within the planning horizon, which may vary from twenty to fifty


The classic forecasting model has the following submodels:

a. Trip generation and attraction
b. Trip distribution
c. Modal split
d. Traffic assignment
In a nutshell, the use of these models follows a logical order as shown in figure 8.1. The
models answer basic questions that determine the number of future trips, the origins and
destinations of such trips, the modes of transportation used, and the routes taken by these trips.
The data are necessary for planning new infrastructure facilities, or expanding existing ones.


Once the study are is defined, it is divided into a number of zones normally defined by
political or administrative boundaries. These are called internal zones. Depending on the coverage
of the study, a zone may correspond to one barangay, town, or city. The study may also consider
some zones outside the study area, which may greatly affect the trip patterns, These are called
external zones. For example, If Metro Manila is taken as a study area, there is a need to consider
the outlying areas of Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, and Bulacan, among others.
For a more systematic analysis and easier presentation, an origin-destination (OD) table is
generally prepared. The origin-destination table simply shows the trips from one zone to another
within a given study area. The terms are defined in reference to figure 8.2.

The number of trips O i , generated from zone i is given by


𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖 = � 𝑇𝑇𝑦𝑦 (8.1)


This is also referred to as trip generation. It is obtained by summing up all the entries in a
given row i.
The number of trips D j attracted to zone j is given by

𝐷𝐷𝑗𝑗 = � 𝑇𝑇𝑦𝑦 (8.2)

This referred to as trip attraction. It is obtained by summing up all the entries in a given
column j.
Trip production is defined in terms of either O i or D j :

𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛

𝑇𝑇 = � 𝐷𝐷𝑗𝑗 = � 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖 (8.3)

𝑗𝑗=1 𝑖𝑖=1

Sometimes the present trip production is estimated first before the trip generation and trip
attraction are analyzed. Trip production is estimated as follows:
𝑇𝑇 = 𝑓𝑓(𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑒 ′ 𝑠𝑠_𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎, 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡_𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝, … ) (8.4)

The independent variables inside the parenthesis must be selected to satisfy the following
a. Predictability
Trips per day at cities in the world are fairly stable, which is about 2.5. Manila is about
2.3 trips per day while Davao City is about 2.4 trips per day.

b. Existence of significant difference between categories

A simple example of category is gender – male or female. Males usually generate more
trips per day. In Metro Manila, this is about 2.6 for males compared with 2.0 females
(ALMEC Corp. 1999).


A number of methods are available for estimating trip generation and attraction. The more
commonly used ones may fall under any of the following:
a. Growth rate method
b. Category analysis
c. Regression model

8.4.1 Growth Rate Method

The number of trips is assumed to be influenced by several variables like population, car
ownership, or income. If future values of these variables can be estimated statistically, then the
future number of trips may be based on the growth rates of these variables and may be estimated
as follows:

8.4.2 Category Analysis

Let us say that the number of cars is considered the main variable in determining trip
making in a certain area. Based on the present number of households and trip making activities,
the future trips can be estimated as follows:
Suppose the following table shows the current condition based on interviews:

Number of cars/households
Family Size 1 2
No. of households No. of trips No. of households No. of trips
1 100 200 50 150
2 200 500 100 350
3 150 450 50 200
More than 3 50 200 10 70

From these data, the average trip generation rate per category can be estimated by dividing
the number of trips by the number of households in each category.

Number of cars/households
Family size
1 2
1 2.0 3.0
2 2.5 3.5
3 3.0 4.0
More than 3 5.0 7.0

These trip generation rates are then applied to the forecasted number of households per
category to obtain the future trip generation.

Example 8.1
The city of Vigan had the following land use activity statistics during morning peak hour
in 2000. Estimate the total trip generation during that period.

Estimated person trips can be computed by multiplying column a with column b.

The table summarized the total trip generation. Residential units produce about 20,000
person trips in the morning. Trip attraction to various establishments is also obtained by
considering all person trips coming in during the morning peak hour. It must be noted that total
trip attraction does not equal total trip production because there are trips coming from outside the
city of Vigan.

8.4.3 Regression Analysis

The different indices or dependent variables normally considered that may have influence
on trip making are shown in table 8.1.

In the Metro Manila Urban Transportation Integration Study (ALMEC Corp 1999), the
following trip generation and attraction models are utilized:

𝐺𝐺𝑖𝑖 = � 𝑎𝑎𝑘𝑘 𝑥𝑥𝑏𝑏 + 𝑐𝑐 (8.6)



Again, the objective of this model is to determine from which zones these trip generations
(O i ) are generated and to which zones these trip attarctions (D j ) are bound.
A number of models have been developed in the past to distribute trips and these are
classified as follows:
a. Present pattern method
b. Model method

8.5.1 Present Pattern Method

Some of the methods under the first category are the following:
a. Uniform factor method

b. Average factor method

c. Detroit method

The principle behind this method is that trip distribution is proportional to growth rate of
trip generation

and that trip distribution is proportional to the relative growth rate of trip attraction to trip

d. Fratar method
This is the most commonly used present pattern method.

Some of the disadvantages of the present pattern method are the following:
A. Complete OD matrix is required.
B. Change of land use is not considered; where the present trip distribution is zero, future
is also zero.
C. If there is error in current OD matrix, the error is expanded with the same rate.

8.5.2 Model Method

A number of model methods are patterned after Newton’s law of gravitation. Hence, these
are termed gravity models.

a. Basic type of gravity model

Other forms of resistance functions are:

in general, the basic type may be written as:

b. Bureau of Public Roads type gravity model

c. Voohees type gravity model

Some of the merits cited for the gravity models are as follows:
a. Trip resistance is considered
b. Structure of model is easy to understand.
c. Complete OD matrix is not necessarily required.

The demerits, however, are as follows:

a. Reasoning is not clear why human behavior is related to Newton’s gravity law.
b. Index of resistance is arbitrary.
c. Trip distribution within zone is difficult to treat.
d. Trip distribution for near zone pairs tends to be larger than real values and vice versa.


Calculation of choice ration may be done using either binary or multiple choice. Under the
method of multiple choice, all possible modes are identified and the share of each mode is
calculated. The use of binary choice is relatively easy compared to multiple choice. Figure 8.3
shows the sequence of modal choice following a binary tree procedure.

8.6.1 The Generalized Cost

The generalized cost attempts to put costing on quantifiable and sometimes unquantifiable
costs that may be incurred during a trip using a specified mode. Two cost items may be quantified
easily: cost (in ordinary sense, such as fare when taking public transport) and travel time. Level of
service may be included in the generalized cost but there is difficulty in quantifying it.

Considering several competing modes, the mode that will have the least generalized cost
will be chosen.
Supposing that there are two modes, with corresponding generalized costs:

The shares of trip makers likely to use modes 1 and 2 are shown by the areas of the time
value distribution in figure 8.4

One disadvantage of the generalized cost method is the difficulty in determining the
distribution of time value. It is also difficult to treat more than two modes.

8.6.2 Disaggregate Choice Model

This method originated from microeconomics. It assumes that a person will use a particular
mode with maximum utility for him.
Consider two modes l and m, then

Example 8.2
A calibrated utility function for travel in a medium-sized city by car, bus, and light rail is
U = a -0.02X 1 – 0.05X 2
Where X 1 is the cost of travel in pesos and X 2 is the travel time (min). Calculate the modal
split for the given values:
Mode A X1 X2
Car -0.3 30 25
Bus -0.38 8 38
Light rail -0.32 15 30

If a parking fee of P30 per trip is imposed, what would be the split to the other two modes?


Similarly, P bus and P light rail can be obtained using the same formula. The
calculations are summarized in the table below. The current modal share shows that car and light
rail have almost the same share.
Mode U eu P %
Car -2.15 0.1164 0.3598 36
Bus -2.44 0.0871 0.2692 27
Light rail -2.12 0.1200 0.3708 37
Total 0.3236 1.00 100

Now, when a parking fee of P30 is imposed to each traveller, the utility of car will be
reduced as follows:
U c = -0.3 – 0.2(6) – 0.05(25) = -2.75

Probabilities are recomputed and the results are shown below.

The share of car is greatly reduced from 36 percent to 24 percent, an overall reduction of
33 percent. This results in car users shifting to bus and rail, which now have an increased share of
32 percent and 44 percent, respectively.


Given a road network, car drivers will normally use the route or routes through which they
will reach their destination in the least time or distance. The same assumption is used to assign
trips or vehicles in the four-step model. The road network is usually drawn using nodes and links
as shown in figure 8.5. The zone centroids are represented by nodes, and the roads connecting the
zones are presented by links.

8.7.1 The Shortest Path

A prerequisite to route assignment is the determination of the shortest path from one node
of the network to another. Given a road network with known characteristics such as distance or
travel time, the shortest path may be found using Dijkstra’s algorithm.
The algorithm or procedure follows these basic steps:

a. First, label the staring node with a value equal to 0. This label is permanent as this will
not be changed.
b. Consider each node adjacent to this node and give them temporary labels. (Only those
without permanent labels are considered.)
i. If a node is unlabelled, it is given a label equal to the weight of the link plus the
value of the previously labelled node.
ii. If a node is labelled, calculate the value of the label and, if this is less than the
current value, then exchange its value with the smaller one; otherwise, leave the
label unchanged.
c. Choose the node with the smallest temporary label and make the label permanent.
d. Repeat steps b and c until the final node has been given a permanent label. The shortest
path has a length given by its permanent value.

Dijkstra’s algorithm will be illustrated by an example.

Example 8.3
Consider the road network shown in figure 8.6(A). The nodes are labelled a to k. The links
have values in travel time in minutes. Determine the shortest path (least travel time) from a to k
using Dijsktra’s algoritm.

Node a is given a permanent label with value equal to 0. From a, adjacent nodes are
temporarily labelled as shown in (B). With 2 as the smallest, node b is permanently labelled as
shown in (C). From node b, adjacent nodes are temporarily labelled. Again the node with the
smallest value is chose. Note that either node c or e may be chosen because they both have values

equal to 3. Node c is chosen in this case, and unlabelled nodes adjacent to it are labelled temporarily
as shown in (D). The steps are repeated. It will be noted in (E) that the value 13 is replaced by a
smaller value, which is 11.

It takes steps (A) to (L) to label all the nodes completely. Finally node k is labelled
permanently. The shortest path from node a to k follows the route a-e-g-j-k with a total travel time
of 23 minutes.

8.7.2 Network Assignment

Given choices or routes, it is but natural to assume that the trip makers will consider the
route that would require the least time or least distance.
Based on this assumption, the methods used to assign the trips within the road network are
the following:
a. All-or-nothing assignment
b. Constant assignment ratio
c. Incremental assignment

All-or-nothing assignment
Considering one OD pair, all trips are assigned to the shortest path from point of origin to
point of destination. After these trips are loaded into the network, the level of service of the roads
in the network may change. The basic steps in conducting an all-or-nothing assignment are as
a. Find the minimum path between zones i and j.
b. Assign all trips T iy the minimum path.
c. Repeat steps 1 and 2 for all OD pairs.

Constant assignment ratio

In this method, it is assumed that the number of trips assigned to a route is inversely
proportional to the travel time or cost of that route, i.e., more trips will be assigned to a route
providing shorter travel time or lesser cost. The basic steps for the constant assignment ratio
method are as follows:
a. Find out several possible routes between zones i and j.
b. Calculate the level of service (time or cost) on each route.
c. Divide the distributed trip to each route inversely proportional to LOS.
d. Repeat for all OD pairs.

Example 8.4
Suppose that 100 trips are to be distributed among 4 routes with the following travel times.
Assign these trips using constant assignment ratio.

Route T, hrs
1 1.0
2 1.25
3 1.5
4 2.0

The inverse of time for each route is computed. This serves as the level of service of the
route. The assigned trips to each route are obtained in proportion to this LOS. Higher values would
have larger share of assigned trips. The result of assignment is shown in the table below.
Route I/T Assigned trips
1 1.00 33.71
2 0.8 26.97
3 0.67 22.47
4 0.50 16.85
Total 2.97 100.00

Incremental assignment
This method considers the influence of previously assigned trips. It is based on the
Wardrop’s Princicple, which states that out of several routes available between zones i and j, the
routes that are used have equal level of service. The routes that are not used have lower LOS.
Consider the trips originating from one zone to be assigned. The incremental assignment
method takes the following steps:
a. Assign 1/n of the trips to route (by using all-or-nothing assignment or constant
assignment ratio).
b. Calculate the new level of service for the state that 1/n trips are already assigned.
c. Assign next 1/n trips.
d. Repeat until all trips are assigned.

1. Use gravity model (Voohees type) to distribute the person trips given below. Refine the
method using Fratar iteration scheme. (Stop iteration when row and column are 1 ±0.05.)

2. A multinomial logit mode choice model is calibrated for 10,000 persons. The resulting
utility function is given below:

For a particular OD pair, three modes are available, with characteristics as follows:
Mode Out-of-pocket cost, Travel time,min Ave. occupancy
pesos persons/veh
Car 50 30 2
Aircon bus 10 45 40
Jeepney 5 50 14

Determine the following:

a. Percentage share of each mode
b. No. of vehicle of each mode

3. Assign the vehicle trips in the given network below using all-or-nothing assignment. Use
Dijkstra’s algorithm to find minimum paths.

4. Determine the shortest path from a to b using Dijkstra’s algorithm.


5. Assign the given vehicle trips ( using incremental method (n = 3).

Apply the capacity restraint relation shown below:


6. Assign the peak hour vehicular trips shown on the given road network. Use all-or-nothing
assignment for the first 1/n trips, then use incremental method with capacity-restraint for
the succeeding assignments (n = 2).

7. Given the following data:

a. Present person trip OD table

b. Growth Factors:

c. Calibrated utility function:

d. Cost of travel (pesos) and travel time in minutes. Use for modal choice only.
(Assume data for 1 to 2 are the same for 2 to 1, etc.)

e. Estimated travel time in each link:

i. trip distribution using Fratar method (make 1 iteration only, i.e., get one set of
row and column factors)
ii. modal split using logit model
iii. trip assignment of cars only using all-or-nothing assignment
(Average veh, occupancy: car – 1.5 persons; Jeepney = 14.0 persons)


 ALMEC Corporation. 1999. Metro Manila urban transportation integration study

(MMUTIS). Project final report, December.
 Garnier, Rowan, and John Taylor. 1992. Discrete mathematics for new technology. Adam
 Khisty, C. Jotin, and B. Kent Lall. 1998. An introduction to transportation engineering.
Second ed. Prentice-Hall.
 Mannering, Fred L., and Walter P. Kilareski. 1990. Principles of highway engineering and
traffic analysis. John Wiley and Sons.
 Morlok, Edward K. 1978. Introduction to transportation engineering and planning. New
York: MCGraw-Hill Book Company.
 Salter, R. J. 1976. Highway traffic analysis and design. Revised edition. MacMillan Press.
 Wardrop, J. G., 1952. Some theoretical aspects of road traffic research. Proceedings,
Institution of Civil Engineers, part 2, vol. 1, 325-78. London.



Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) is the application of information and

communication technologies to surface traffic and transportation systems. ITS has the potential to
improve mobility and operation of transportation system. Deployment of ITS usually falls under
any of the following nine areas (HIDO 2000):

a. Advances in navigation systems

b. Electronic toll collection
c. Assistance for safe driving
d. Optimization of traffic management
e. Increasing efficiency in road management
f. Support for public transport
g. Increasing efficient in commercial vehicle operations
h. Support for pedestrians
i. Support for emergency vehicle operations

Based on the experience of several countries that have earlier deployed ITS, some of the
estimated benefits are the following (US DOT 1998):
a. Advanced traffic surveillance and signal control systems have resulted in travel time
reduction ranging from 8 percent to 25 percent.
b. Electronic fare payment technologies for transit systems have resulted in increased
revenues 3-30 percent due to fewer evasions.
c. Incident management programs can reduce delay associated with congestion caused by
incidents by 10-45 percent.

d. Electronic toll collection increases capacity by 200-300 percent compared to attended

e. Widespread use of Mayday emergency notification devices can reduce the time it takes
to discover a rural crash from 1 minute to 9.6 minutes.


9.2.1 Traffic-Responsive Signal System

The State-of-the-Art Metro Manila Adaptive Responsive Traffic (SMART) system is a
signalling project undertaken by the Department of Public Works and Highways-Traffic
Engineering Center (DPWH-TEC) for the upgrading and development of traffic signals in Metro
Manila. The SMART Project utilized the Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS)
technology. As a dynamic demand-responsive traffic system used for area-wide control, the signal
timings are free to evolve in response to detected traffic demand. The SCATS was successfully
installed for the first time in the country in Cebu City. Figure 9.1 shows the system’s configuration
when used over a wide area such as a big city or metropolis. Areas covering a number of
intersections are controlled by a regional computer, which is then connected to a central
management computer (CMC).
A typical sample display of a regional or central management computer useful for
assessment of traffic condition is shown in Figure 9.2. It shows the congestion level of the road
network in Cebu City.

Initial assessment

There is a tendency to assume that once a new traffic control system replaces an older one,
traffic flow will automatically improve – speeds will increase quieting will be less, traffic will be
orderly, etc. However, there are a number of factors external to the system that may severely affect
the traffic flow. In a “before-and-after” study conducted to evaluate the system, it was observed
that most of the unwanted practices noted during the before case were still prevalent during the
after case (UP NCTSFI 2001). These include
• uncontrolled loading and unloading of passengers by PUVs;
• illegal parking;
• vendors occupying sidewalks (even carriageway), leaving pedestrians no option but to use
the road;
• commuters on the road waiting for rides; and
• laxity in traffic enforcement.

These practices severely hinder the flow of traffic along some thoroughfares considered in
the study – Taft Ave., Mabini St., and Del Pilar St. There is no way that SCATS alone can solve
the traffic problems along these roads. A concerned effort by concerned authorities is therefore
necessary to eliminate these practices. Otherwise, the government’s effort to alleviate congestion
through the use of advanced technologies will be worthless.

Nevertheless, the SCATS has been found to manage traffic better by preventing extreme
peaing (or concentration) of the traffic volumes, thus allowing the available capacities to be used
more optimally. With regard to queuing, twenty-five intersections along four corridors (i.e., Taft
Avenue, Roxas Boulevard, Mabini St., and Del Pilar St.) were evaluated before and after the
installation and operation of the SCATS traffic signal system. An overall reduction of 30.39
percent was estimated four queue lengths during the morning peak. Similarly, an overall reduction
of 35.98 percent was estimated for afternoon peek queues. These reduction clearly indicates an
improvement due to the installation and operation of SCATS.

9.2.2 The Metro Manila ETC Systems

Dubbed E-Pass, the first-ever electronic toll collection (ETC) system in the Philippines
started to be implemented in August 2000. Transcore US and Transcore Australia take care of
software and hardware, respectively. E-PASS is expected to be used in more than 150 toll lanes
along the South Luzon Expressway (SLEX and the Skyway (elevated expressway).
In this system, a tag is placed on the inside surface of the windshield behind the vehicle’s
rear-view mirror. The tag is electronically read at the entry and exit of E-Pass ready toll lanes.
Upon exit, it is read to determine the toll fee to be paid. If here is enough balance in one’s E-PASS
account, a green light is given and the barrier lifts up. (A yellow light is also given to alert the
subscriber that his or her prepaid toll balance is below P250 and that it would be advisable to reload
soon. A red light means a zero balance account, meaning the subscriber cannot use the e-pass lanes
to exit.) The tag is available at the customer service center and through sixteen participating Shell
service station located near expressway. A “one tag, one vehicle” policy is applied, which means
a motorist is not allowed to switch the tag to any other vehicle if he or she owns more than one.
The total cost of enrolling in the ETC system is P3,800 for each tag kit. It includes the five-year
lease for the tag. To encourage motorists to subscribe to the new system, a 60 percent discount
was offered for the first 10,000 tag kits. Cash lanes that are not included in the E-PASS service are
also computerized for a faster cash collection system. Cash value cards are available through
interactive kiosks in Shell stations.
Figure 9.3 shows the different components of SLEX ETC System.

Features of the SLEX ETC System

a. Automatic vehicle classification
• AVC system classifies vehicles using height and number of axles.
• Done at exit points (exit lanes).
• Done for both manual and ETC payment.
Figure 9.4 shows the various devices and components of a toll gate (E-PASS exit).

b. Cash collection
• Uses magnetic striped card which is encoded by the toll teller and handed to the
patron at entry booth,
• Card is electronically “read” at the exit booth.
• Toll teller classifies the vehicle/AVC system makes its own classification
• Toll is computed by the computer and displayed to the toll teller and the patron.
• A motorist receipt is generated.

c. Electronic toll collection

• All lanes with ETC antenna can be switched to “ETC only” lanes (figure 9.5).
• Patrons use tags.
• A siren and an amber flashing light will provide violation notification to staff:
- orange → low balance
- red → insufficient fund
• If fund is insufficient, the patron has to pay in cash.

d. Information generated at the supervisor’s level (maxi booth)

• Lane information, such as lane number, lane direction, lane mode, operator,
payment type, etc.
• Transaction details at a particular lane – vehicle classification, amount paid, etc.
• Unusual occurrences, such as changes in lane modes, toll operator log on/off,
violation, nonrevenue transaction, equipment fault or recovery.
• Assignment of cash bags

Initial assessment
The existing system lacks some of the features of a full-blown ETC system found in other
countries. There is no monitoring system using cameras or automatic vehicle violation processing
system. To cut cost, a simplified system was devised so that full control is done within the
jurisdiction of the expressway. The existing ETC system requires motorists to slow down or to
come to a full stop for checking. A horizontal barrier lifts when a green light is given. At times,
when traffic becomes heavy, a bumper-to-bumper situation can cause the barrier to rise and fall
too often. This can confuse drivers who follow light and barrier. This technical flaw needs to be
addressed since in 2001, at least 200 barriers were destroyed every month, not to mention damages
to vehicles. Minimum spacing or headway between vehicles should be enforced. A simple method
is to paint two lines before the toll gates for checking the spacing.
Based on an initial study of the operation of the tollway, the dedicated E-PASS lane has an
average tollbooth transaction time of 1.15 seconds per vehicle compared to 15.0 seconds per
vehicles for the manual scheme (cash coupons), and 5.9 seconds per vehicles for mixed-mode
lanes (Padayhag and Sigua 2001). Table 9.1 shows the lane usage and service rates at Nichols A

Table 9.2 shows he number of vehicles using the dedicated E-PASS lanes at Nichols and
Bicutan during peak hours. At Nichols A, 13.6 percent of the vehicles using the tollgate are E-
PASS users.
a. Morning peak (7:30 – 10:30 AM)

b. Afternoon peak (4:00 – 6:00 PM)


The SLEX ETC system is a distance-based system. Overall, the trip demand on the use of
the expressway is basically the same. It is worth looking at the system as time-based, with higher
fees collected or charged during peak hours. The concept of time-based fee charging is discussed
in the next section.
After major rehabilitation of the North Luzon Expressway (NLEX), the Manila North
Luzon Tollways Corporation began full operation of ETC in early 2005. (See figure 9.6) Dubbed
EC-Tag, the ETC and NLEX operates at the same frequency (DSRC 5.8 Ghz) similar to SLEX.
Among the features of the new NEX are computerized toll collection system; dedicated lane for
transponder and swipe card system for faster transactions; reliable emergency and roadside
services; including smart emergency phone boxes; and twenty-four-hour emergency assistance
consisting of telephone operators, traffic patrol teams, first air emergency trucks and tow trucks.

Table 9.3 shows a comparison of the SLEX and the NLEX ETC systems. The estimated
percentage of ETC users was for the year 2006.


Koshi’s assessment of the traffic congestion in Manila, Bangkok, and Jakarta made him
conclude that the only effective method available in Asian cities is “road pricing” (Koshi 1996).
Fees have to be set unrealistically high to achieve a meaningful reduction in overall demand. Its
primary objective should be to encourage drivers to reconsider their time of departure and time of
return. As a secondary benefit, the revenue generated from it can be used for building public transit
networks such as bus and rail transit systems. However, he also stressed that unless adequate
transportation infrastructure is built, the problem will not be solved no matter what amount of time
or money is present on information processing and communication. The first priority, therefore, is
to build rail transit system.

9.3.1 Time-Bases Fees

The present distribution of trip with time (arrival and departure) is one of the causes of
congestion in Metro Manila. Trip making is concentrated in a short period during peak hours as
shown in figure 9.7. A better spread of the time of arrival to a longer interval will contribute to the
alleviation of traffic congestion. Road pricing does just that by charging any vehicle entering the
restraint zone a fee, depending on the level of congestion in the area.

9.3.2 Phasing in Peak-Hour Road Pricing

No system for peak-hour road pricing can be installed all at once in a large metropolitan
area; it would have to be phased in gradually. The first locations chosen would be road or other
sites (such as bridges) that are heavily congested during peak hours and have no easy substitute
Another possibility would be “zone pricing”, like that in downtown areas. Special fees
would have to be paid for vehicle entry during key hours in one or a few heavily congested zones
– such as central business districts (CBDs). Vehicles entering these zones then would either pay
monthly fees computed by an automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system – or buy stickers that
would exempt them from arrest and fines – as in the original Singapore system (monitored by
human spotters). Zone pricing would work best where congestion is heavy in a relatively limited
and compact area rather than over a broad region.
Since many drivers diverted from priced roads would switch to alternative routes, traffic
would rise sharply on these alternative routes. This could offset much of the advantage of the
reduced congestion on toll routes if the system leaves many such alternatives untolled. Peak hour
pricing would probably never be installed on all alternative routes, even after an entire system had
been phased. Of course, modern technology changes so quickly that some method of doing this

might be found. Nevertheless, increases in traffic or alternative routes might become an almost
permanent condition in the near future. Heavy traffic might therefore be diverted into residential
neighbourhoods or onto other socially undesirable routes.
An important question is: How high should the new road charges be? These should be high
enough to divert the minimum number of vehicles needed to achieve desired average speeds, but
not so high that surrounding roadways become clogged because so many vehicles have had to be
diverted. Choosing the right tools will therefore be a matter of trial-and-error experimenting on
each road. Coping with the traffic that shifts to alternative routes that do not charge tolls poses a

9.3.3 Other Effects of Peak-Hour Road Pricing

Peak hour road pricing would also increase the peak-hour use of public transit because
some commuters would find driving more costly than using public transit after taking into account
the time, toll, and operating expenses. Furthermore, more commuters who usually drive alone
would start ride sharing, for some same reason. Both these effects would reduce peak hour

9.3.4 MMUTIS Studies on road Pricing

A number of hypothetical cases have been studied for the application of road pricing in
Metro Manila, although its political and social acceptability is still uncertain (ALMEC Corp 1999):
a. Road pricing in an arterial
EDSA, the most important circumferential road in Metro Manila, was considered
for road pricing. It was assumed that all the private vehicles entering EDSA pas US$ 1
per entry. The traffic crossing EDSA is not charged. Results showed the following:
i. Alleviation of congestion by about 5 percent along EDSA. Some parallel roads,
however, became congested due to detouring traffic.
ii. Potential revenue of about US$ 70 million per year.

b. Cordon pricing within a CBD

Cordon pricing was tested for the CBD of Makati City, the business center of Metro
Manila. A similar fee of US$ 1 was assumed.

i. The effect of reducing traffic congestion is significant in and around Makati (5-
10 percent).
ii. Potential revenue estimated at US$ 61 million per year.

c. Cordon pricing within a bigger area

A much bigger area bounded by the circumferential road EDSA was considered.
i. Most of the roads in Metro Manila show an alleviation of traffic congestion by
3-10 percent.
ii. Potential revenue estimated at US$ 174 million per year.

d. Parking pricing
Parking pricing within the CBD of Makati City was assumed. A parking pricing
charge of about US$ 1 per parking event was applied.
i. Effect on alleviation minimal.
ii. Potential revenue about US$ 15 million per year.



a. Institution
Success ITS deployment requires a very high level of cooperation between national
and local agencies on the one hand, and law enforcement and emergency response agencies
on the other. Since these agencies do not normally work closely together, significant turf
and organizational culture problems may arise. Traditional transportation agency leaders
also suffer from inadequate knowledge of ITS technologies and their potential benefits.

b. Infrastructure
Successful ITS deployment and operations require basic infrastructure elements
like a well-developed communications backbone and uninterrupted power supply.

c. Technology
Understanding the role of ITS technologies is critical to its success. ITS planning
and design should be based on “needs-based assessments”, not just on technology push.

d. Finance/budget
Although IS deployments cost significantly less than new road construction, they
involve allocation of funds to be spent on systems unfamiliar to transport authorities, or
which have not been deployed widely elsewhere. This creates a situation of inadequate
support for ITS projects, especially, since several transport authorities cannot even afford
basic highway maintenance and rehabilitation.



A truly working ITS scheme, such as Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) or ETC, is one that
has the right objectives, delivers its predicted benefits, and is acceptable to the ones paying for it.
This means that when an ITS scheme is successful, the ones paying for it have to enjoy some of
its benefits.
Something that works in Singapore may not work in Manila. Cultures differ greatly.
Charging for something that used to be free may not be a good approach. A number of ITS schemes
such as ERP will never succeed as long as the victims of the current problems feel they have to
pay for becoming a victim in the solution.
There is already a growing criticism that ITS favors the rich. Expected beneficiaries of ITS
should not be only car users. Metro Manila is a good example when it comes to public transport
patronage. About 70 percent of trip makers rely on public transport. It should be the policy of the
government that revenues from ITS schemes (ETC or ERP) be earmarked for transportation
infrastructure development, such as mass transit systems, instead of simply going to general funds.
Unless ITS is geared toward mass transportation system, it is likely to fail in developing countries
where majority of trip makers rely on public transport for mobility.


ITS should complement the government’s plans and programs to build more urban
expressways and urban rail networks. Preparations for planning and deployment of ITS – such as
full-blown ETC along expressways or major arterials. ERP for CBDs and, automation at
LRT/MRT stations – should begin now. Urgent tasks to be done are the following:
• Creation of an official organization to look at ITS priorities.
• Development of ITS master plan for Metro Manila. Priority should be given to mass
transport-related ITS application. There is also the growing concern on safety and
environment issues.
• Comprehensive analysis of the first examples/initiatives of ITS deployment in Metro
Manila – SCATS signal System and Skyway’s ETC – their effectiveness, and what went
wrong. Is SCATS a failure due to lack of complementing traffic management measures?
Do ETC’s partial implementation and cost-cutting measures make the system ineffective?
Is full implementation an absolute condition?
• Making it known that ITS is not only for developed countries. ITS seems to be so
sophisticated/high-tech that it becomes incomprehensible to traditional politicians. In a
developing country, there is a strong tendency to rely heavily on manual methods due to
cheap labor. This is also true on the Philippines where manual method is thought to be
more effective than automatic means.
• As government is desperately looking for effective solutions, a lot of convincing is needed
for the decision makers to believe that ITS is not simply a “technology push” but a viable
solution to Metro Manila’s congestion problem.

 ALMEC Corporation. 1999. Metro Manila urban transportation integration studies
(MMUTIS). Project final report, December.
 Highway Industry Development Organization (HIDO). 2000. Intelligent transport systems.
ITS handbook 2000-2001. Japan.
 Koshi. M. 1996. Traffic congestion in Asian cities: The wheel extended. A Toyota
Quarterly Review, no. 95.

 Padayhag. G. U. and R.G. Sigua 2001. Evaluation of electronic toll collection (ETC)
system along South Luzon Expressway and Manila Skyway. 9th Annual conference,
Transportation Science Society of the Philippines, Manila. July.
 University of the Philippines National center for Transportation Studies Foundation Inc.
(UP NCTSFI). 2001. Metro Manila SMART Traffic Signaling Project (SCATS) before and
after study final report, June.
 US Department of Transportation, 1998. ITS Joint Program, ITS for Metropolitan Areas.

AADT Annual average daily traffic; it is estimated as the total volume

counted over one year divided by the number of days in the year.
ADT Average daily traffic; obtained by averaging traffic volume over a
number of days at least 2 days and less than 365 days.
Blackspots Hazardous or accident-prone locations
Broken back curve A curve characterized by a short tangent between two sub-curves
in the same direction.
Capacity The maximum hourly rate at which persons or vehicles can
reasonably be expected to traverse a point or uniform section of a
lane or roadway during a given time period under prevailing
roadway, traffic, and control conditions.
Channelization Geometric improvement normally applied at intersections to
simplify movements of vehicles to lead drivers to face one conflict
at a time.
Clearance interval The sum of yellow and all-red period in between phases.
Clothoid A spiral that serves as a transition path as the vehicle enters or
leaves a circular curve.
Compound curve A two-arc simple curve having its centers on the same side of the
common tangent.
Cordon counts Counts used to determine the number of vehicles and/or persons
entering and leaving an enclosed area.
Crest vertical curve A vertical curve with the parabolic curve drawn below the two
Critical gap Describes the minimum gaps needed by drivers of minor road
Cycle One complete indication of green, yellow, and red signals.
D/D/1 A single-server queuing system with regularity of both arrivals and
Delineators Small reflective panels or buttons mounted on guide posts or guard
fences as an effective aid for night driving.
Density The number of vehicles in a given length of road at an instant point
in time.
Design speed The maximum safe speed that can be maintained over a specified
section of highway when conditions are so favourable that the
design features of the highway govern.
Dijkstra’s algorithm A procedure used in route assignment stage of the four-step model
to determine the shortest path from one node of the network to
Diplomatic vehicles Motor vehicles by a foreign government or by their diplomatic
officials in the Philippines.
Disaggregate choice model A method used for determining modal split, which assumes that a
person will use a particular mode with maximum utility for him.
Easement curve See clothoid.
ETC Electronic Toll Collection; an ITS application; see also ITS.
Expressway A major divided highway designed for high-speed travel, having
few or no intersections; also called freeway or limited access
FIFO First-in First-out, i.e., the first one that arrives at the service station
gets served first and therefore is the first to leave the system as
Flow Rate The number of vehicles passing a point during a specified period
of time.
For hire vehicles Motor vehicles authorized to be used as public vehicles by virtue
of a franchise granted by the Land Transportation Franchising and
Regulatory Board.
Generalized cost A term that puts costs on quantifiable and sometimes
unquantifiable costs that may be incurred during a trip using a
specified mode.
Glass beads Materials used to enhance the wet-night reflectivities of pavement
Grade-separation Eliminates the problematic crossing conflicts of the different
movements of vehicles; flyover/overpass, underpass, or full-blown
interchanges are some of the examples.
Greenshield’s model A traffic flow model describing linear relation between speed and
Harmonic mean speed See Space mean speed.
Intergreen See Clearance interval.
Interrupted flow Flow occurring at intersections or driveways where vehicles are
required to stop by any cause outside the traffic stream such as
traffic signs (STOP or YIELD), traffic signal lights, etc.
Intersection The point where traffic flow converges and where direction of
travel changes.
ITS Intelligent transportation system; the application of information
and communication technologies for surface traffic and
transportation systems.
Jeepney An indigenous mode of public transportation in the Philippines; a
postwar creation, it was inspired by the GI jeeps that the American
soldiers brought with them to the country during the 1940s.
Kendall’s notation A notation used to describe queuing system.
Level of service A qualitative description of how a certain facility is performing.
LIFO Last-in first-out; i.e., the last one that gets in gets our first, See also
M/D/1 A single-server queuing system which assumes that the arrivals of
vehicles follow a negative exponential distribution, a probability
distribution characterized by randomness. Departure is assumed to
be regular as in the D/D/1. (See also D/D/1.)
M/M/1 A single-server queuing system that assumes negative exponential
for both arrival and departure distributions. (See also M/M/1).
M/M/N A multiple-server queuing system that assumes negative
exponential for both arrival and departure distributions. (See also
Maximum speed limit The 85th percentile speed used for speed regulation.
Minimum speed limit The 15th percentile speed used for speed regulation.
Modal split A part of the four-step model with the objective of determining
which mode of travel is used by a trip maker.
Moving observer method A method developed by the Transport Road Research Laboratory
in the UK that is used to obtain information on traffic volume,
speed, and density of a given section of road.
Official/government Motor vehicles owned by the Philippine government.
Offset The difference in the start of green of two signalized intersection.
Parabolic vertical curve Curve used for the design of the profile of highways.
Passing sight distance The shortest distance required for a vehicle to safely pull out of a
traffic lane, pass a vehicle traveling in the same direction and
return to the correct lane without interfering either with the
overtaken vehicle or opposing traffic.
Pavement markings Traffic control devices that take the form of lines, symbols,
messages, or numerals and may be set into the surface of, applied
upon, or attached to the pavement.
PCU value Passenger car unit equivalent of the different types of vehicles.
Pedicab A bicycle with a sidecar; nonmotorized mode of public
transportation. See also bicycle.
Phasing A process by which right of way is given to particular movements
in a logical manner with the primary purpose of minimizing the
number of conflicts.
Pneumatic rode tube Used as detector, it senses vehicle pressure and sends a burst of air
pressure along a rubber tube when a vehicle’s tires pass over them;
the pulse of air pressure then closes an air switch and sends an
electrical signal that marks the passage of a vehicle.
Private vehicles Motor vehicles owned by private individuals or companies and are
not intended to be used for hire.
Raised pavement markers Small rectangular or dome-shaped devices that are fixed or
embedded to the pavement to simulate or supplement painted
pavement markings.
Reserve capacity Difference between the existing traffic volume and available
Reserve curve A two-arc simple curve having its centers on opposite sides.
“Right of Way” rule Rule which states that when two vehicles arrive at the same time at
the intersection, the vehicle on the right has the priority.
Road pricing A method of alleviating congestion by charging any vehicle
entering the restraint zone a special fee to depending on the level
of congestion in the area.
Rotary A form of unsignalized intersection in which all the vehicles move
counter clockwise in one-way fashion.
Roundabout See rotary.
Route Assignment A part of the four-step model which is used to assign trips or
vehicles to a given road network.
Sag vertical curve A vertical curve with the parabolic curve drawn above the two
Saturation flow rate The maximum flow rate occurring at the stop line once traffic
initially in queue is given green time indication.
SCATS Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System; third-generation
system in which the signal timings are free to evolve in response to
detected traffic volumes and queues; the system installed in Metro
Cebu and some parts of Metro Manila.
SCOOT Split Cycle Offset Optimization Techniques; third-generation
system in which the signal timings are free to evolve in response to
detected traffic volumes and queues.
Screen line counts Classified counts taken at some points along a line that bisects a
given area.
Semaphore A visual signalling apparatus with flags, lights, or mechanically
moving arms, as one used on a railroad; used also for controlling
Shock wave A phenomenon brought about by the motion or propagation of a
change in density and flow.
Simple curve A circular arc between two tangents.
Space mean speed Speed based on the average travel time of vehicles in the stream
within the section.
Spacing The distance between two vehicles measured from the front
bumper of one vehicle to that of another.
Spot speed Arithmetic mean of the speeds of vehicles passing a point within a
given interval of time.
Stopping sight distance The shortest distance required for a vehicle traveling at the
assumed running speed to stop safely before reaching a stationary
object in its path.
Superelevation Banking of the roadway necessary to counteract the centrifugal
force that is acting on the vehicle.
Test car technique A method for travel time studies that makes use of a test vehicle
which is driven over the road section under study. The driver is
instructed to travel at a speed that in his opinion is representative
of the speed of the traffic stream.
Thermoplastic materials Materials that can be heated to a liquid state, reshaped, and cooled
to form a new object; regarded as the most successful of all
pavement marking materials when properly applied.
Time headway The time interval between passages of consecutive vehicles at a
specified point on the road with a unit of time per vehicle.
Time mean speed See Spot speed.
Time occupancy The total time a detector is occupied divided by the total time of
Traffic accident An unexpected and undesirable event, especially one resulting in
damage or harm.
Traffic control devices Means by which the road used is advised as to detailed
requirements or conditions affecting road use at specific places and
times so that proper action may be taken and accident or delay
Traffic death Defined by UN Organization (Geneva) as one that occurs within
thirty days of the event.
Traffic engineering That phase of transportation engineering that deals with the
planning, geometric design, and traffic operations of roads, streets,
and highways; their networks, terminals, and abutting lands; and
their relationships with other modes of transportation.
Traffic management A term used to embody the activities undertaken by a highway
transportation agency to improve roadway system safety,
efficiency, and effectiveness for both providers and consumers of
transportation services.
Traffic regulation Covers all aspects of the control of both vehicle (registration,
ownership, mechanical fitness, accessories, size, and weight) and
driver (age, ability to operate specific types of vehicles, financial
Traffic signal A visual signal to control the flow of traffic and pedestrians at
intersections or at midblocks.
Traffic signs Traffic control devices necessary to give information as to routes,
directions, destinations, etc. Their function becomes more relevant
when used to warn road users of hazards and in regulating any
prohibitive action at specific places and/or at specified times.
Transportation engineering A field or branch of civil engineering that deals with the
application of technology and scientific principles to the planning,
functional design, operation, and management of facilities for any
mode of transportation to provide for the safe, rapid, comfortable,
convenient, economical, and environmentally compatible
movement of people and goods.
Tricycle A three-wheel, motorized mode of public transportation consisting
of a motorcycle with a sidecar. See also Pedicab.
Trip attraction The number of trips that is attracted to a certain zone.
Trip distribution A part of the four-step model with the objective of determining
from which zones the trips are generated and to which zones these
trips are bound.
Trip generation The number of trips generated from a certain zone.
Two-way stop control The major approaches without STOP signs have complete priority
over the minor approaches with STOP signs.
Ultrasonic vehicle detectors Detect volume, presence, classifications and speed of vehicles;
they are active acoustic sensors that transmit sound waves toward
detection zones at a frequency ranging from 20 khz to 300 khz.
U-turn scheme A traffic management shcme in which intersections are replaced
by U-turn slots. Operation is very similar to that of a roundabout
except that it favors a particular road, which is assumed to be the
major road.
Volume See Flow rate.

Dr. Ricardo G. Sigua is a professor at the College of Engineering of the University of the

Philippines Diliman, teaching transportation engineering subjects in both undergraduate and

graduate programs of the Civil Engineering Department. He obtained his Bachelor of Science in

Civil Engineering degree from the same university in 1978. He finished his master’s and doctor’s

degrees from the University of Tokyo in 1984 and 1991, respectively. Professor Sigua served as

director of the UP National Center for Transportation Studies for two terms (1996-1999 and

2002-2005). He is a member of the Transportation Engineering Specialty Division of the

Philippine Institute of Civil Engineers (PICE). He has been the Philippines’ lone Country

Representative to the Transportation Research Board of the National Research Council

(Washington, D.C.) since 1997.