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To cite this article: Kiang-Meng Tay & Clive Butler (1999): METHODOLOGIES FOR EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: A SURVEY,
COMPARISON, AND FUTURE PREDICTIONS, Quality Engineering, 11:3, 343-356
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Quality Engineering, 11(3), 34S356 (1999)
1812
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/ 1933
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(Bunnm) (Yates)
13
1946 Burman designs ) 1931 randomized
block designs
(Plakut-Bunnan) (Fisha) (Yates)
1Y4> IY>6
(Box-Bchnkm)
\
(Box)
1Y>1
Half Normal
lYbu
f 2 k R~ a c t i m ~ ~
Fklorials
Plots Rwlution
(C. Daniel) (Box & Hunta)
\ Y>Y
1 lYbl
/
/ Residuals to
find variance Oplimal deign
reducing fwtw
. P P ~
(Pdamv)
f D-optimal
blocking techniques IYIZ
& Robust designs
(Cox 4 Nachtsheim)
\ 89
Sequential experimentation
Screening/characlerirorion
Randomization and Replication
Complete confounding anolysis
On-line/Off-line QC Orthogonal designs t-Tesl for hvo-level factors
Quali~yand Reliabili~yby design Curvature lesls
Cost effective product and process Mathematical modelling
~ ' o n t r oPoramelers
l /Noise parameters A l t e r ~ t i v eLotin square conrlruclions
Analysis of variance
Model validiry checking
Tests of signl@cance
Description. Prediction & Control
Inner/Ouler array optjmaliry (RSMJ
Signol/Noise ratio Optimaliry tracking (EVOP)
Marginal analysir Placktl-Burman Designs
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From the literature review, a comparison of the classical the distribution of the data and using calculation methods
and Taguchi approaches to experimental designs can be appropriate to the distribution. The Taguchi method oper-
summarized in Table 1. ates on the premise that no data fit any distribution exactly
The classical methods are more rigorous mathematically and takes a much more casual approach to this consider-
and statistically than Taguchi methods. Most texts on clas- ation. The classical methods emphasize the choice of opti-
sical methods spend a great deal of time and effort on con- mum results by calculation of response surfaces from a
founding and interaction of factors. On the other hand, single, large experiment. On the other hand, Taguchi meth-
Taguchi methods emphasize the evaluation of a large num- ods emphasize collecting data quickly and efficiently and
ber of main effects, rather than interactions. Thus, the clas- iterating the experiment several times if necessary. This is
sical methods include more hypothesis testing and statisti- sometimes called "Pick the Winner" statistics. In addition,
cal inference methods than Taguchi methods. In classical cost is an ever-present consideration in Taguchi experi-
methods, considerable emphasis is placed on understanding ments; it is not unusual for the levels of some factors to be
Table I. Continued
causality analysis. Classical experiments will still be concerned potential noise factors. Taguchi does not emphasize the use
about factors which were not included due to incomplete of randomization, but attempts to compensate for it by
brainstorming or inability to be measured. incorporating noise in the design. Taguchi, therefore, advocated
the use of a noise (outer) array to systematically vary the
noise factors; the noise factor is crossed with the controllable
(inner) array, and the product array is used for the
experimentation.
(h) Run the experiment and collect the data. (h) Conduct the experiment by performing the experimental trials
and collect the experimental data.
(i) Perform hypothesis tests on all desired effects and classify (i) Hypothesis tests are not emphasized; instead, a graphical
as significant or not significant using the t-tests and F-tests. Use analysis is conducted or the signal-to-noise ratio is used.
replication at some or all points to estimate error and/or If ANOVA is conducted, the error estimate is based on
pool higher-order interaction sums of squares for the error. the pooling of insignificant sums of squares. Rules for pooling
Recent emphasis is on the use of Normal probability for sums of squares are not rigorous. F-values are tested
plots or Pareto charts for unreplicated designs. for significance per classical procedures; however, it is
recommended that final unpooled F-ratios greater than 2 not
be ignored.
(i) Involve building a parsimonious mathematical model to form (i) The important effects are determined graphically to select
prediction intervals and estimate the optimal response through an experimental champion based on the best mean or largest
the use of Response Surface Methodology. signal-to-noise ratio. Prediction equations are generated and
used for prediction.
(k) Find the optimal through an iterative experimental procedure (k) No iterative experimentation is used. The settings for the
If the optimal response lies outside the sample region, best response over the experimental region are based on
conduct another experiment in the direction of the optimal. signal-to-noise ratio.
(I) Set the process factors at the optimal settings and go (I) Run a confirmatory experiment with the new parameter
on-line. Recent emphasis is also on confirmation runs. settings to verify the predicted results. Additional experiments
are required if the results are unsatisfactory. The imponancc of
confirmation runs is stressed. Confirmatory runs are made
prior to going on-line.
(m) Assumptions include normality, independence, and (m) Assumptions are similar to the classical method.
equal variability. The F-test is robust to minor violations Independence may be a problem due to lack of randomization.
of normality and homogeneity, especially for large Unequal variance is accounted for by the transformation used
samples balanced for each experimental condition. in signal-to-noise calculations.
Emphasis is on blending engineering knowledge, common
sense, and statistics when drawing conclusions.
(n) Conclusion and recommendations and implementation. (n) Conclusion and recommendations and implementation.
The Classical methods are generally preferred by those with a Taguchi methods are more popular with the engineer because of
statistical or mathematical inclination. their practicality.
TAY AND BUTLER
selected purely on the basis of cost. Although classical factorial experiments. This is why Taguchi often resorts to
methods are capable of evaluating costs, this consideration using mixed-level factorial experiments. However, although
is usually not as prominent in reporting of results. many engineering systems can be expected to exhibit
The contribution of uncontrollable factors is of consid- nonlinearity, the classical school of thought finds it ill-ad-
erable concern in Taguchi experiments. In order to minimize vised and quite uneconomical to worry about curvature in
the experimentaleffort, it is important that noise factors that the initial phase. Instead, the classical techniques use two-
contribute substantially to the variation are included in the level designs in the first experiment and only worry about
study. In fact, the consideration of these factors in outer second-order effects and curvature when they show them-
arrays is a major part of Taguchi methods. By contrast, clas- selves through the data, not just suspecting that the system
sical methods are more concerned with controllable factors. might exhibit second-order effects globally.
Based on the above points, it may be obvious to the reader Taguchi favors the use of mixed-level orthogonal arrays
that the two types of experimental design have different with an economic run size. Taguchi's main reason for us-
spheres of application, albeit with significant overlap. In ing mixed-level orthogonal arrays with an economic run size
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general, classical design of experiments is preferred in ap- is the run-size economy. Several methods have been pro-
plications where the cost of the experiment is high, or where posed in the combinatorial design literature for construct-
the time required is long and options for iteration are lim- ing mixed-level arrays, but the emphasis is not on run-size
ited, or where a precise and rigorous result is required, or economy. For any combinatorial work to make impact in
where uncontrollable factors can be limited, or where the industrial applications, this and other practical constraints
emphasis is on the results obtained, rather than on the pro- cannot be overlooked. Unlike classical designs, whose ef-
cess knowledge to be gained by conducting several itera- fects are either orthogonal or fully aliased, these arrays
tions. Examples of such applications are space shuttle ex- (mixed-level orthogonal arrays) have more complex aliasing
periments, medical experiments, and basic research projects. patterns. The traditional approach is to use them for screen-
Taguchi methods are more applicable where there are many ing only.
uncontrollable factors, where it is important for the experi- However, the classical school of thought argued that it
menter to obtain results quickly, and where it is possible to is not advisable to start with mixed-level designs because
iterate the experiment several times. The most important the appropriate spacing between the high and low levels of
contributions of the Taguchi approach are in the area of the factors are seldom known. It is better, therefore, to "feel
quality philosophy and engineering methodology, which out" the system first with a small, two-level screening ex-
include the loss function and robust designs. periment instead of launching an ambitious experiment such
as a three-level factorial. This avoids committing a large
amount of the experimental budget to the first phase, when
Critique of Classical and Taguchi Methods the uncertainty is the greatest. A counterargument, advanced
in defense of Taguchi's approach, is that the experimenter
Although Taguchi's methods have gained widespread usually knows enough initially to space the points appropri-
application in industry, they have been subjected to consid- ately and plan an'experiment that covers the relevant region.
erable critical review. Some researchers and practitioners Therefore, three-level designs can be used initially to esti-
have severely criticized his statistical methods (9,15,17,20- mate curvature.
23). Most of these criticisms focus on the mathematical and
statistical rigor of his data analysis approach. Several recent Data Analysis
research papers have shown that Taguchi's methods for data
Statisticians often insist that an experiment without de-
analysis and optimization are sometimes unnecessarily com-
riving interaction is meaningless and may result in serious
plicated and limited. A few references are by Box (24). Nair
errors (24,30). Many criticized the fact that Taguchi meth-
and Pregibon (25), Kusaba (26), Box and Jones (27),
ods ignored interaction (9,15,22,23); some said that his
Logothetis (28), Bisgaard (29), and Box et al. (20); the lat-
methods are rough cuts and do not work at the refinement
ter reference provides a comprehensive overview.
stage because all interactions must be known at this stage.
A few even indicated that Taguchi shortcut problem screen-
Experimental Optimizalion
ing methods are more useful for research and development
It is quite clear that many engineering systems are non- (i.e., product or process development) rather than fine-
linear, and nonlinearity cannot be determined by two-level tuning discrete pan manufacture.
METHODOLOGIES FOR EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
Others, Kackar (15), Hamada and Wu (31), and Hunter used to improve the signal-to-noise ratio by using
(16), emphasize the importance of interactions. A further inner and outer orthogonal arrays.
few stated that the universal use of signal-to-noise ratios for From this and other statements made elsewhere, Taguchi
choice of criteria is unconvincing and suggested the use of seems to believe that estimated main effects are not affected
data transformation as a better alternative to Taguchi's sig- by interactions because they are smeared or evenly spread
nal-to-noise ratios (24). On the contrary, Taguchi considered all across the design matrix column. From the preceding
it to be quite important. There is, therefore, a large gap discussion, it can be concluded that Taguchi engineers are
between the statisticians and Taguchi (engineers) followers far better at using and treating interaction compared to stat-
when it comes to the use of interactions that cannot be ig- isticians. This is because Taguchi engineers can understand
nored. and comprehend the limitations on an experimental design
Statisticians treated interaction as follows: and treat a situation in a practical manner in an actual prob-
1. Interaction among factors is considered to be an ef- lem environment. Moreover, even if there were an ideal way
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oped techniques. They used response surface methodology be made to alleviate the problem. A potential solution to
(RSM) to model the response directly as a function of con- these problems is the use of artificial neural networks, which
trol and noise factors. will be described in the subsequent sections of this article.
Other related approaches were discussed by Khuri and
Cornell ( 3 3 , Montgomery (17), and Logothetis and Haigh Computer-Aided Experimental Designs
(36). Although the response-model approach is promising,
the methodology for carrying it out is yet to mature. As the A faster and less costly approach to experimental design
estimates of variance are based on the fitted-response model, is computer-aided design of experiments. It saves the engi-
it is important that the model predicts well. In addition, neer valuable time in modeling, calculations, and analysis
decisions on control parameter settings have to be carefully of results. Computer-aided designs of experiments have
selected because they can be very sensitive to the response been developed that automatically perform many of the cal-
model. The response-model approach requires a parsimoni- culations and manipulations required. The highly detailed
ous model with good prediction capability. In order to at- graphic displays provide an easy-to-understand picture of
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tain this, it is important to use available physical knowledge exactly how a process or system performs. There is little
in the modeling process. doubt that the trend to produce computer software that
guides users through the process of experimental design and
analysis will accelerate. Even now, the major problem con-
Multiple-Response Experimental Design Methods
fronting developers of such systems is not computer or tech-
The design and analysis of multiple-response experi- nical related, but instead involves understanding how the
ments has received little attention in the statistical literature. intelligence should behave.
The development of multiple-response analysis has been At present, most commercially available experimental
lagging in comparison to single-response analysis. This design programs are little more than catalogs of standard
contrasts sharply with the growing need in science and in- designs presented in a logical sequence (44-49). Although
dustry to analyze multiple-response data. This can be attrib- this is useful, it hardly explores the full capability of an
uted to several factors. First, the subject area is fairly new expert design system. The reason for the failure is obvious:
(only in the last two decades). Second, the software needed It is an extremely difficult task. Developers of expert sys-
for analyzing multiple-response data is practically nonexist- tems face the challenge of how to integrate successfully the
ent. With recent advances in modern technologies, it is users' existing subject-matter knowledge and experience
common to obtain data which describe different facets of a with the technical capabilities embodied in the software.
system or a product. Therefore, it is imperative that practi- Ordinarily, a consultant or practitioner designs an experi-
cal multiresponse techniques be made available to research- ment using an informal analytical process. Because expert
ers and data analysts. systems require more formalism, their development will lead
The multiresponse optimization is one area that clearly to a deeper examination of all aspects of the design process.
has many useful applications, such as in product and pro- Quality engineers can look forward to the fruits of this
cess development. The problem of multiresponse optimiza- development: intelligent statistical design software that sim-
tion has remained poorly defined for quite some time. For plifies and extends the application of experimental design.
multiresponse data analysis, very little is known about the This application should yield quantum breakthroughs in
statistical properties (37-40). Furthermore, the tests of hy- quality, cost, and development cycle time.
potheses concerning estimable linear functions of the param- Recently many companies have begun to realize the
eters for the multiple-design multivariate linear model are potential of computers in quality control. This has been due
difficult to understand (41). Also, all these multivariate sta- primarily to the need to react to competitive pressures and
tistics were meant only for the statistician to understand. the introduction of automation. Although the last 5 years has
There are no known diagnostic procedures that can help the witnessed an explosion in the number of commercial soft-
user determine the adequacy of the fitted multiresponse ware packages available for quality control and design of
model and/or detect failures of the model (42,43). Most of experiments, minimal emphasis has been placed on the
the known multiresponse design criteria are variance related, development of expert systems for planning experiments.
relying mainly on D-optimality. The acute shortage of soft- Design of experiments software for exploratory data
ware is critical, and unless this problem is resolved, the analysis allows engineers to use statistics without a deep
engineer (unfortunately) will not be attracted to knowledge of statistics by using menu prompts, copy-and-
multiresponse techniques. A serious effort should therefore paste text and graphics, mouse-cursor interaction, and vi-
METHODOLOGIES FOR EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN 35 1
sual patterns rather than numerical outputs to highlight dif- system derived from both data and domain knowledge. - In
ferences. Current design of experiment software packages complex design and analysis problems involving non-
help engineers through the problem definition process by linearities, more advanced methods such as artificial neural
prompting for the critical factors that are part of the process networks are needed for data analysis.
under investigation. The software then makes recommenda-
tions about which experiment would be appropriate to run Using Neural Networks for Experimental Designs
and how many runs would be required while accounting for
variation of all process parameters from one experimental The advances in computer technology allow the devel-
run to another. These experiments include fractional facto- opment of useful neural networks in a wide variety of ap-
rial, orthogonal array, mixture designs, Taguchi, and re- plications, ranging from classification and pattern recogni-
sponse surface methodology, and so forth. The software tion to optimization, to function approximation and
then generates a software listing for each test run and space continuous mappings and control. Similarly, the advances
to enter test results. The software then analyzes these results in computer technology can be expected to totally transform
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using standard analytical tools such as linear regression, quality aspects of both product development and manufac-
least square fitting, and so on. The use of common com- turing processes. With the increasing pressures on manufac-
puter-based experimental design (e.g., SAS, P-STAT, SPSS, turers to improve quality, computer-integrated quality engi-
etc. statistical analysis system) has reduced the possibility neering is going to be an essential tool in achieving
of numerical errors in statistical analysis. improvements in quality and productivity performance.
However, most existing software is poor at handling The future will be one in which decisions are made us-
special technical features, such as nesting, components of ing advanced computers, which possess more complex ca-
variance, split-plotting, and so forth, and the art of experi- pabilities using artificial neural networks and fuzzy systems,
mental design. In addition, very few of the available systems machine learning, and so forth. The software will be domi-
can detect methodological selection errors, because they nated by decision strategies, which maintain complete con-
contain neither meta-knowledge on statistical concepts nor trol over the ongoing real-time process. In the recent years,
knowledge on statistical methods, design of the current interest in application of artificial intelligence in the prac-
experiment, primary goal of the analysis, or prior analyses tice of statistics has mushroomed. Much of the interest has
computed on the current set of data. The statistical results, focused on the construction of intelligent software for the
in spite of their numerical correctness, are often semantically analysis of data and the feasibility of building expert sys-
wrong because of the wealth of methods available in mod- tems that would enable the relative novice to cany out ap-
em statistical analysis computer-based systems, which of- propriate experimental analysis.
ten leads to erroneous application of statistical methods. One way the technology of neural networks can impact
the concept of experimental design and decision support
In addition, literature on the theoretical aspects of statis-
tical models are based on assumptions that are not realistic system is by extending the conventional design of experi-
ments (DOE) system into an intelligent system which is
for many applications. As long as these software were used
capable of handling ill-structured or unstructured problems.
exclusively by statisticians, the absence of knowledge to
These systems are incorporated with the human expert judg-
guide the user in selecting the method and interpreting
ment and preferences. Here, artificial intelligence, neural
results did not cause serious problems. However, these soft-
networks, and other adaptive systems techniques can be
ware are used more frequently by experimenters with little
applied to automate the generation of decisions or strategies
statistical expertise. Thus, automating the expertise of en-
for design of industrial experiments. Hence, the main im-
gineers and statisticians in the form of expert systems is one
provement over the conventional DOE systems can be used
potential solution.
for the following:
Unfortunately, as in many other areas where intelligent
systems have been investigated, none of them have been I. Assist engineers and managers in their decision pro-
accepted mainly because knowledge acquisition and appli- cesses with data information analysis capabilities
cation proved to be too difficult and time-consuming. In such as sensitivity analysis, hypothesis testing, pre-
addition, both structured and unstructured knowledge has to dictive learning, inverse modeling, and so forth.
be taken into consideration, and these different types of 2. Incorporate judgment, preference, and expert knowl-
knowledge call for different methods of representations. For edge in the systems models to improve the quality
the future, design of experiments will need an intelligent of decision, as the decision support system so de-
TAY AND BUTLER
Simulation
Neuronal 1
model
I
Neural 1
Neuronal
information
processing
e.g.
Pattern recognition
signed draws on the experience and knowledge of ing unit is the weighted sum of all its inputs, with weights
not just the user but many other users and experts being the connection strengths. These weights are trans-
Improve the effectiveness of decision-making while formed further by a nonlinear transformation function
not sacrificing efficiency unnecessarily (84-94).
Capture and extract information from data, which Unfortunately, some major problems in neural networks
may arise from experimental design, historical data, remain unsolved. These include the problem that the struc-
simulation data, or observational data surveys and ture of normal neural networks, especially the hidden layers
may include judgment of not just one expert, but of feedforward multilayered networks, are usually opaque
many experts (without having to formulate the prob- to the user in that they are difficult for an outside observer
lem explicitly in mathematical expressions) to understand or modify; and the problem of deciding the
structure and size of proper neural networks which ensure
Neural networks research (as shown in Fig. 4) and its ap-
that there are enough neurons in the hidden layers; whether
plications (67.68) can be classified as either the software or the learning algorithm is able to find the global minimum
the hardware approach (69-71). The software approach for the performance function; and does the learning data
simulates neural networks by programming its learning al-
contain enough information to describe the unknown under-
gorithms. However, this approach does not exploit the in- lying functions with respect to both nonlinear and dynamic
trinsic parallelism of neural networks, which may result in
behavior.
computational complexities such as training time, network
size, data sizes, and so forth. On the other hand, the hard-
ware approach which builds neural networks by analog
VLSl techniques or optical computers (intrinsic parallelism
exploited) is too costly to implement. Hidden
To date, there are several neural network models (72- layer
83), varying in the connectivity architectures, transfer func-
tions (84-94), and the training laws (50-66,94-100). How-
ever, the basic neural network is a computing system with
highly interconnected processing units which processes in-
formation by its dynamic-state response to external inputs
(illustrated in Fig. 5).
Each processing neuron (node) is connected to several
other processing neurons, and each of these connections is
associated with a connection strength (weight). Information
processing using neural networks consists of analyzing
patterns of activity, with learned information stored as
weights between the neurons. The output of each process- Figure 5. An artificial neural network model.
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