California

Housing Market
Update
Monthly Sales and
Price Statistics
December 2019
Sales
 Sales dipped below 400k
for the 1st time in 6 months
California, December 2019 Sales: 398,880 Units, -1.2% YTD, 7.4% YTY
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

Jan-11

Jan-13

Jan-15

Jan-17

Jan-19
Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
3
 California home sales continue to improve

25%
20% Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
15%
10%
7.4%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
4
 Bay Area sales growth had drastic rebound

30% Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)

20%
16.0%
10%
YoY % chg.

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
5
 So. California sales grew
at double digit pace
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
40%
30%
20% 15.9%
YoY % chg.

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
6
 Central Valley sales growth sped up

30% Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)

20%
11.6%
10%
YoY % chg.

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
7
 Sales down at the bottom end of the market

December 2019 Share by Price Segment

(YTY% Chg.) 17%
$0 - $299k 22%
40% 35.3%32.0%
30.6% 16%
30% 19.5% $300 - $399k 16%
20% 11.8%
7.4% $400 - $499k 14%
10% 14%
0% $500 - $749k 25%
24%
-10%
-20% -11.9% $750 - $999k 12%
10%
13% 2019
$1,000 - $1,999k 11%
2018
$2,000k+ 4%
3%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
8
 High-end home sales showing improvement
in recent months
40% $0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k
30% $750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+
YTY % Chg. in Sales

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Percent Change in Sales page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
9
Sales by Region
December 2019 December 2019 Home Sales
Home Sales by Region Growth by Region
50.0% 42.4%
Other Counties
40.0%
Central 7%
30.0%
Coast 16.0% 15.9%
20.0% 11.6%
5%
Central 10.0%
Valley 0.0%
22% -10.0%
-9.1%
-20.0%

S.F. Bay
Southern Area
California 18%
48%

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

page
10
 Pending sales grew at slower pace than
prior month
20%
YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales

15%
10%
8.4%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%

SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
11
Is it a good time to buy or sell?

Do you think it’s a good time to buy a Do you think it’s a good time to sell a
home in California? home in California?
N=300 N=300

56%
51%
48%

22% 24%25%

SERIES: 2018/2019 Google Consumer Poll page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
12
Price
 Median price bounced back over 600k
and had largest yearly gain since May 2014
California, December 2019: $615,090, 4.3% MTM, 10.3% YTY

$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$-
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

Jan-11

Jan-13

Jan-15

Jan-17

Jan-19
Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
14
 Condo/Townhome median price growth slows

50% Condo Single-Family Homes

40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

Jan-11

Jan-13

Jan-15

Jan-17

Jan-19
Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
15
 Condo/Townhome median price
grew from last year
California, December 2018: $453,740, December 2019: $477,000
$600,000

$500,000
Median Price

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$0
Mar-06

May-07
Dec-07

Mar-13

May-14
Dec-14
Jan-05

Oct-06

Jul-08

Jan-12

Oct-13

Jul-15

Jan-19
Apr-10
Nov-10
Jun-11

Apr-17
Nov-17
Jun-18
Aug-05

Feb-09
Sep-09

Aug-12

Feb-16
Sep-16

Aug-19
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
16
 Price/Square Foot growth rate picked up

December 2019: $290, 0.7% MTM, 8.2% YTY

$400
$350
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
17
 Price/Square Foot: Condo/Townhome vs. SFH

Diff. in Price/Sq. Ft. SFH Condo/Townhome Linear (SFH)

$450
$396
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$400
$350
$300 $290
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
18
 Sales price-to-list Price ratio up from last year

December 2019: 98.3%, -0.1% MTM, 0.9% YTY

100%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

98%

96%

94%

92%

90%
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
19
 Growth of list price vs. sales price

40%
Listing Price Sales Price
30%
YTY% Chg. in Price

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
20
Price grew in all percentiles

Year-over-Year Price Growth

12%
10.4% 10.2% 10.6%
10.0% 10.0%
10%
8.7% 8.3%
8% 7.1%

6% 5.7%

4%

2%

0%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
21
 Top end of the market had back-to-back price
growth
20% 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100

15%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%

5%

0%

-5%
Mar-18

May-18

Dec-18

Mar-19

May-19

Dec-19
Jan-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Oct-19
Apr-18

Jun-18

Nov-18

Apr-19

Jun-19

Nov-19
Feb-18

Aug-18
Sep-18

Feb-19

Aug-19
Sep-19
SERIES: Percent Change in Price page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
22
 Market Velocity

50.0%

-50.0%
100.0%
150.0%

-150.0%
-100.0%
0.0%
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Price Growth

Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
California Market Velocity and Price Growth

Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Market Velocity (12 month trailing average)

Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%

-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%

23

Existing SFR Median Price

Growth
page
 Lower mortgage rates = to lower mortgage payment

California Median Price vs.

30 Yr. FRM
6% Mortgage Payment
20%
5% 4.64% 15%
4% 3.72% 10% 10.3%

YTY% Chg.
5%
3%
0% -1.2%
2% -5%
-10%
1%

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
0%
May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18

May-19
Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth

SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
24
 Mortgage payment continued to decline,
but at a much slower pace as prices surged
California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
20%
15%
YTY% Chg.

10% 10.3%
5%
0% -1.20%
-5%
-10%
Mar-16
May-16

Mar-17
May-17

Mar-18
May-18

Mar-19
May-19
Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19
Sep-16
Nov-16

Sep-17
Nov-17

Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
25
 Mortgage payment ticked up from last month
but remained below last year
California, December 2018: $2,298, December 2019: $2,270
$3,000

$2,500
Mortgage Payment

$2,000

$1,500

$1,000

$500

$0

SERIES: Mortgage Payment of Existing SFH page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
26
Monthly mortgage: slightly more affordable

Region Dec 2019 Dec 2018 % CHG

CA SFH $2,270 $2,298 -1.2%

Los Angeles
$2,030 $2,060 -1.5%
Metropolitan Area

Central Coast $2,584 $2,950 -12.4%

Central Valley $1,262 $1,308 -3.5%

Inland Empire $1,421 $1,479 -3.9%

S.F. Bay Area $3,354 $3,502 -4.2%

SERIES: Monthly mortgage payment page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
27
 Most counties require lower mortgage payments
Dec 2019: chg. in mortgage payment (yty%)
15% 10.5%
10%
5%
0%
-5% -1.2%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-33.8%
-40%

SERIES: Change in mortgage payment page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
28
Down payment: grew in most areas

Region Dec 2019 Dec 2018 % CHG

CA SFH $123,018 $111,548 10.3%

Los Angeles
$110,000 $100,000 10.0%
Metropolitan Area

Central Coast $140,000 $143,200 -2.2%

Central Valley $68,400 $63,500 7.7%

Inland Empire $77,000 $71,800 7.2%

S.F. Bay Area $181,750 $170,000 6.9%

SERIES: Down payment page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
29
 Many counties require higher down payments
Dec 2019: chg. in down payment (yty $)
$20,000 $15,000
$15,000 $11,470
$10,000
$5,000
$0
-$5,000
-$10,000
-$15,000
-$20,000
-$25,000
-$30,000 -$28,200
-$35,000

SERIES: Change in mortgage payment page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
30
 Inventory &
Active Listings
 Unsold Inventory Index declined
as a result of more sales and fewer listings
18.0
16.0 December 2018: 3.5 Months; December 2019: 2.5 Months
14.0
Months of Supply

12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

Jan-11

Jan-13

Jan-15

Jan-17

Jan-19
Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-19
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
32
 Supply further constrained at every price level
except at the top end
December 2019

10% Active Listing

3.6%
YTY % Change

0%
-10%
-20% -16.1%
-30% -28.1% -26.5%
-30.8% -29.1%
-40% -33.3%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
33
 Unsold Inventory low in all Regions – Bay Area
below month and a half supply
9.0
8.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley
7.0
Months of Supply

6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0 2.7
2.0 2.2
1.4
1.0
0.0
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
34
 Inventory Index tighter than last year
even at top end of the market
California Unsold Inventory Index by Segment
12
10.0
Months of Supply

10
8.1
8
6 5.5
3.8 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.5
4 3.22.7 3.2 3.3 2.9 2.7 3.0 2.5
2.3 2.1 2.2 1.9
2
0

Dec-18 Dec-19

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
35
 Active listings dropped by double-digits;
largest yearly decline since September 2014
Year-over-Year % Chg
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30% -26.5%
Mar-15
May-15

Mar-16
May-16

Mar-17
May-17

Mar-18
May-18

Mar-19
May-19
Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19
Sep-15
Nov-15

Sep-16
Nov-16

Sep-17
Nov-17

Sep-18
Nov-18

Sep-19
Nov-19
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
36
 Housing supply tightened up in all regions

Dec-18 Dec-19
30,000
26,610
25,000
Active Listings

20,000 18,262

15,000
9,591
10,000
7,029
5,000 4,441 3,300
1,822 1,802
0
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area
SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
37
 Inventory did not get replenished

December 2019
Sales Active Listings

50% 42.4%
40%
Year-to-Year % Chg

30%
20% 16.0% 15.9%
11.6%
10%
0%
-10%
-20% -14.0%
-30% -25.7% -26.7%
-40% -31.4%
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area
SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
38
Active listings tightened up

California Active Listings by Month

70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0

2018 2019

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

page
39
Market Competitiveness
 Time on market ticks up

80 California, December 2019: 28.0 Days

70
Days on Market

60
50
40
30 28.0
20
10
0
May-06

May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

May-18
Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

Jan-11

Jan-13

Jan-15

Jan-17

Jan-19
Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-19
SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
41
Median time on market down except top percentiles

Median Time on Market

50
4039
40
35
Days on Market

32 33 3233
31 31 3231 3132 32
30 28 24
25 26 26 26

20

10

0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile
Dec-18 Dec-19

SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
42
 Sales-to-list price ratio up at every percentile

California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile

100.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
100.0%
99.5% 99.4%
99.0%
99.0% 98.8%
98.6%
98.5% 98.1%
98.0% 97.6%
97.5%
97.0%
96.5%
96.0%
95.5%
95.0%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Dec-18 Dec-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
43
 Median sales vs. list price growth $1M+ properties

California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth

15%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%
Dec-11
May-12

Mar-13

Dec-16
May-17

Mar-18
Jan-09

Jul-11

Oct-12

Jan-14

Jul-16

Oct-17

Jan-19
Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Feb-11

Aug-13

Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
Sep-15
Feb-16

Aug-18

Jun-19
Listing Price Sales Price

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
44
 Reduced-Price Listings

Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 34.7%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.3%

50% 0%
45% -1%
40% -2%
35% -3%
30% -4%
25% -5%
20% -6%
15% -7%
10% -8%
5% -9%
0% -10%
1/1/2010
5/1/2010
9/1/2010
1/1/2011
5/1/2011
9/1/2011
1/1/2012
5/1/2012
9/1/2012
1/1/2013
5/1/2013
9/1/2013
1/1/2014
5/1/2014
9/1/2014
1/1/2015
5/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016
5/1/2016
9/1/2016
1/1/2017
5/1/2017
9/1/2017
1/1/2018
5/1/2018
9/1/2018
1/1/2019
5/1/2019
9/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
45
 Growth in Reduced-Price Listings

Growth in Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: -3.6%

Growth in Median Reduction Amount: 0.0%
8% 0.05%
6% 0.00%
4% -0.05%
2% -0.10%
0% -0.15%
-2% -0.20%
-4% -0.25%
-6% -0.30%
11/1/2015

11/1/2016

11/1/2017

11/1/2018

11/1/2019
1/1/2015
3/1/2015
5/1/2015
7/1/2015
9/1/2015

1/1/2016
3/1/2016
5/1/2016
7/1/2016
9/1/2016

1/1/2017
3/1/2017
5/1/2017
7/1/2017
9/1/2017

1/1/2018
3/1/2018
5/1/2018
7/1/2018
9/1/2018

1/1/2019
3/1/2019
5/1/2019
7/1/2019
9/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction

SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
46
Thank You