Energy Technology Roadmaps

GSE, Rome, 8 July 2010

Paolo Frankl
Head, Renewable Energy Division
International Energy Agency

© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Decarbonising the power sector –
a new age of electrification?
50

PWh
Other
ENERGY 45
TECHNOLOGY Solar
PERSPECTIVES 40
Wind
2010
35 Biomass+CCS
Scenarios & Biomass and waste
Strategies 30
to 2050 Hydro
25
Nuclear
20 Natural gas+CCS

15 Natural gas
Oil
10
Coal+CCS
5 Coal
0
2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map  BLUE High  BLUE High Ren 
2050 Nuclear 2050 2050

A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels with

CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity
© OECD/IEA - 2010 sector.
 IEA Roadmap Status
2009 releases 2010 releases 
• Wind • Solar photovoltaic
• Electric / plug‐in hybrid  • Concentrating solar 
vehicles power
• Carbon capture & storage • Nuclear power
• Cement • Biofuels
• Efficient heating and 
cooling in buildings
• Smart grids
• Vehicle efficiency

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010
 Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps
7/9/2010
© OECD/IEA 2010
Joint IEA/NEA Nuclear Roadmap released mid-June

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010
 Conclusions
IEA Solar Roadmaps
• Stable government policies on nuclear is key
• Enhance public dialogue to inform stakeholders about the 
role of nuclear in energy strategy
• Financing nuclear is a major challenge
• Establish legal frameworks and institutions in countries 
where they do not exist
• Make progress in implementing plans for permanent 
disposal of high‐level wastes
• In the longer term, GEN IV technologies could reduce 
costs, improve performance and security

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010
 Carbon Capture
and
Storage

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

7/9/2010
© OECD/IEA 2010
 CCS technology deployment targets
12,000
2050
OECD PACIFIC 3,400 projects
USA OECD (35%)
Non‐OECD (65%)
10,000 OTHER OECD N AM
OECD EUROPE
2040
ODA 2,100 projects
ME  OECD (40%)
8,000 Non‐OECD (60%)
Captured CO2 (MtCO2/yr)

INDIA
EEU + FSU
CSA
6,000 2030
CHINA 850 projects
AFR  OECD (49%)
Non‐OECD (51%)
4,000
2015 2020
18 projects 100 projects
OECD (72%) OECD (50%)
2,000 Non‐OECD (28%) Non‐OECD (50%)

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010
 Wind

Technology Roadmap
Wind energy
© OECD/IEA 2009
Regional production of wind electricity in the 
ETP 2008 BLUE Map scenario

Leading markets over the period are China, OECD Europe and the 
United States. OECD Pacific countries gain importance after 2020, and 
Central and South America after 2030.

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010
 Grid integration of wind power

• Managing grid 
An offshore grid may be 
integration key more efficient than a 
series of one‐off 
• Increase flexibility  transmission link‐ups, 
of power systems while interconnecting 
larger markets.
• Flexible supply
• Storage
• Interconnections
• Demand‐side 
response

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010
 IEA Electric
ENERGY
and Plug-in
TECHNOLOGY Hybrid
PERSPECTIVES
2010 Vehicle
Scenarios & Roadmap
Strategies
to 2050

© OECD/IEA - 2010
 BLUE Map EV/PHEV sales
trajectory to 2050
120
2050: 100 million: e.g. 400 models selling 250,000 each
100 Electric
ENERGY

Passenger LDV Sales (million)
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES 80
2010 2030: 30 million:
e.g. 150 models selling 200,000 each
Scenarios & 60 Diesel Plug‐in
Strategies
to 2050
40

Annual sales targets:

20
2020: 7 million: Gasoline  Plug‐in
e.g. 70 models selling 100,000 each
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Key factors to achieve these targets:

• Battery costs down to USD 300/kWh for EVs by
2015
• Coordinated development of infrastructure, e.g. in
© OECD/IEA - 2010 large metropolitan areas
 Solar PV
TRANSPORT,
ENERGY
Technology
AND CO2
Roadmap
Moving Toward 
Sustainability

Low-carbon energy technology

roadmaps
© OECD/IEA - 2009
© OECD/IEA 2010
PV Deployment Trends

New additions
2009 (prelim data EPIA)

Country MW

Germany 3800

Italy 730

Japan 484

US 475

Czech Rep 411

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010
 Solar PV Vision 

PV could provide 5% of global electricity generation in 2030, 11% in 2050

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010
 PV Deployment and 
Competitiveness levels

Retail electricity prices

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010
Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2010
Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2010
 CSP costs and global output

Competition for peak and mid‐peak loads

Competition for base load

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010
 The CSP Roadmap: 2050
2050: A detailed regional assessment – with some HVDC lines 

ƒConsumption
ƒProduction

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010
 IEA Solar Roadmaps
• Solar electricity could represent up to 20% to 
25% of global electricity production by 2050
• Producing up to 9000 TWh per year
• Saving almost 6 billion tonnes CO2 per year
• This decade crucial for effective policies to 
enable the development of solar electricity
• PV and CSP rather complementary to each 
other
• Need to plan and invest in grid infrastructure
• Smart grids for PV, HVDC transmission lines for CSP

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010
 Conclusions 
IEA Energy Technology Roadmaps 
• Additional tool using results of ETP Blue scenarios
• Engage cross‐section of stakeholders 
• Identify barriers – technical, regulatory, policy, 
financial, public acceptance
• Develop implementation action items for stakeholders
• Outreach activities starting
• International Low‐carbon energy technology platform

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010
 Thank you!
paolo.frankl@iea.org

www.iea.org/roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2009 

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2010
 ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
ANNEX

© OECD/IEA - 2010
 GDP projects

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

(% per year based on purchasing power parity)

© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Crude oil price

Dollars per barrel

150

ENERGY Real ($2008) Baseline

125
TECHNOLOGY Scenario
PERSPECTIVES
2010 100

Scenarios &
Strategies 75 Real ($2008)
to 2050 BLUE Map Scenario

50

25

0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Impact of CO2 price on costs for crude oil:

2020 ( 50 USD/t): 90+21 =111 USD/bbl
2030 (110 USD/t): 90+43 =133 USD/bbl
2050 (175 USD/t): 70+73 =143 USD/bbl
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Oil, gas and coal price assumptions

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

For the Baseline Scenario (in USD per unit)

For the BLUE Scenario (in USD per unit)

© OECD/IEA - 2010
 Carbon Price in the BLUE Map
scenario
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010

USD / t CO2 2020 2030 2050

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

OECD 50 110 175

Non-OECD 0 65 175

© OECD/IEA - 2010