Canada

Federal Vote Intentions

Flight 752
Different Ballot Scenarios with
Gladu, Poilievre, and MacKay as
Conservative Leader
20th January 2020
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of a
survey conducted between January 16th and 17th,
2020 among a sample of 1470 adults, 18 years
of age or older, living in Canada. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is
intended to represent the voting population of
Canada.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was sponsored by iPolitics.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commerically
available sources and random digit dialing. The
part of the survey that dialed from the directory was
conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials,
respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.55% and is
accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
is a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
• Justin Trudeau and the Liberals find themselves in majority territory with just under
40% support among decided and leaning voters. The Conservatives find themselves with
32.4% support, while the NDP has 10.9%. The Greens with interim leader Jo-Ann Roberts at
the helm have 5.4%. The Bloc Quebecois has 6.6% nationally, but enjoy 28.4% in Quebec.

• That said, the country remains divided regionally. The Liberals have double-digit
leads in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces, while the Conservatives enjoy a
massive advantage over the Liberals in BC, Alberta, and the Prairies.

• A gender divide persists in federal voting intentions. The Conservatives lead by 2%

among men, while the Liberals lead by 16% among women.

• The Liberals jump in support since the election can likely be attributed to how
Canadians perceive how Justin Trudeau has handled the issue of the downing of Flight
752. A total of 57% of respondents said that they at least somewhat approve of how the
Prime Minister has handled the issue.

• Approval of how Trudeau has handled the issue is net positive across the ages
and genders, and most of the regions. Alberta is the only region where more people
disapprove of how Trudeau has handled the issue.

• A majority of people (50%) think that the Iranian government is more to blame for the
downing of Flight 752. This is consistent across age, gender, and region.

• However, we see big differences in terms of party identification on this question.

Conservative supporters overwhelmingly believe that the Iranian government was
responsible for the downing of Flight 752.

• The poll also asked Canadians about different ballot scenarios with Marilyn Gladu,
Peter MacKay, and Pierre Poilievre as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. MacKay
(31.7%) significantly outperforms both Poilievre (26.9%) and Gladu (24.1%) in voter
intention.
 All Voters
If an election were held today, which party would you vote for?

8%
1.9%
2.5%
5%

36.9%

9.5%

All Voters
6.2%

All Votersand Leaning

Decided 30%

8% 2.4%
Liberals Conservatives Bloc Québécois NDP Greens
1.9%2.8%
5.4%
2.5%
People's Party Another Party Undecided
5%
10.6%
36.9%
39.8%
9.5%

6.6% All Voters

Decided and Leaning
6.2%

32.4%30%

Liberals Conservatives Bloc Québécois NDP Greens

Liberals Conservatives Bloc Québécois NDP Greens
People's Party Another Party Undecided
People's Party Another Party
 Thinking about candidates for the leadership of the
Conservative Party of Canada, which candidate would
you vote for if the federal election were held today?
Scheer

36.9% 30.0% 6.2% 9.5% 5.0% 8.0%

Poilievre

35.8% 26.9% 6.8% 10.1% 4.8% 11.1%

Gladu

36.4% 24.1% 6.7% 10.6% 4.8% 11.8%

MacKay

34.5% 31.7% 6.3% 10.0% 4.6% 8.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Liberals Conservatives Bloc Québécois NDP Greens People's Party Another Party

Undecided
 As you might have heard, Ukraine International Airlines flight 752 was shot
down last Wednesday and all 176 passengers were killed, including 57
Canadians. The Iranian government has since claimed that unintentionally shot
down the plane. Who do you think is more to blame for the downing of Flight
752?

16.4%
16.4%

34%34%

49.6%
49.6%

Trump Administration Iranian Government Not Sure

Trump Administration Iranian Government Not Sure

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau has handled the issue of the shooting of Flight 752?

14%
14%

30.1%
30.1%

18.2%
18.2%

10.5%
10.5%
27.1%
27.1%

Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure

Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure
Breakout Tables
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(All Voters)
Total Men Women 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 36.9% 33.8% 40% 32.5% 37.6% 36.6% 42.6% 27.7% 16% 22% 43.2% 42.3% 49.8%
Conservative, Scheer 30% 35.7% 24.3% 30.1% 26.7% 32% 31.1% 39.1% 57.4% 48.7% 29.1% 11.5% 16.9%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 6.2% 6.3% 6.1% 4.5% 7% 7.2% 6% - - - - 26.4% -
NDP, Singh 9.5% 8.2% 10.8% 11% 11.5% 9.4% 5.1% 13.5% 4.8% 10.4% 10.5% 7.3% 10.2%
Green, Roberts 5% 4.1% 5.8% 7.8% 4.7% 3.4% 3.5% 7.6% 4.7% 8.6% 4.4% 1.8% 10.6%
People's Party, Bernier 2.5% 2.9% 2.2% 4.8% 2.3% 1.2% 1.3% 0.7% 2.8% 5.5% 2.4% 3.1% 1.4%
Another Party 1.9% 2.3% 1.6% 2.7% 1.7% 2.4% 0.7% 3.8% 4% - 1.8% 0.9% 1.2%
Undecided 8% 6.7% 9.3% 6.6% 8.6% 7.9% 9.6% 7.4% 10.3% 4.8% 8.6% 6.8% 9.9%
Unweighted Frequency 1470 818 652 241 377 473 379 228 143 90 581 342 86
Weighted Frequency 1470 728 742 409 368 405 288 200 166 96 564 343 101

(Leaning Voters With Undecided Totals)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 38.2% 35% 41.3% 33.7% 38.9% 36.8% 45.4% 28.1% 16.5% 22% 44.9% 43.6% 52.7%
Conservative, Scheer 31.3% 37.1% 25.5% 30.1% 28.6% 33.9% 32.5% 40.7% 60.5% 50.4% 30.3% 11.5% 19%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 6.4% 6.3% 6.5% 4.5% 7.7% 7.2% 6.3% - - - 27.4% -
NDP, Singh 10.2% 8.4% 11.9% 12% 11.8% 10.4% 5.4% 16.4% 5.3% 10.4% 11% 7.5% 10.2%
Green, Roberts 5.2% 4.2% 6.2% 7.8% 5% 3.8% 3.8% 8.5% 6% 8.6% 4.4% 1.8% 10.6%
People's Party, Bernier 2.7% 2.9% 2.6% 4.8% 2.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.7% 2.8% 5.5% 2.6% 3.6% 1.4%
Another Party 2.3% 2.6% 2% 3.1% 2.2% 2.6% 0.7% 3.8% 5.3% - 2.3% 0.9% 1.2%
Undecided 3.8% 3.6% 4% 3.9% 3.5% 3.3% 4.6% 1.8% 3.7% 3.2% 4.4% 3.8% 5%
Unweighted Frequency 1470 818 652 241 377 473 379 228 143 90 581 342 86
Weighted Frequency 1470 728 742 409 368 405 288 200 166 96 564 343 101

(Decided And Leaning Voters)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 39.8% 36.4% 43.1% 35.2% 40.4% 38.1% 47.7% 28.7% 17.2% 22.7% 47% 45.3% 55.5%
Conservative, Scheer 32.4% 38.4% 26.6% 31.3% 29.6% 35% 34% 41.4% 62.8% 52% 31.7% 11.9% 19.9%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 6.6% 6.5% 6.7% 4.7% 7.9% 7.4% 6.6% - - - - 28.4% -
NDP, Singh 10.6% 8.7% 12.4% 12.5% 12.2% 10.8% 5.6% 16.7% 5.5% 10.7% 11.5% 7.8% 10.7%
Green, Roberts 5.4% 4.3% 6.5% 8.1% 5.2% 4% 3.9% 8.7% 6.2% 8.9% 4.6% 1.8% 11.2%
People's Party, Bernier 2.8% 3% 2.7% 5% 2.4% 2% 1.4% 0.7% 2.9% 5.7% 2.7% 3.8% 1.4%
Another Party 2.4% 2.7% 2.1% 3.3% 2.2% 2.7% 0.7% 3.9% 5.5% - 2.4% 0.9% 1.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1415 788 627 232 363 458 362 224 136 87 556 331 81
Weighted Frequency 1415 701 714 393 354 390 277 193 160 92 542 330 97
Thinking about candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party of
Canada, which candidate would you vote for if the federal election were
held today (POILIEVRE)?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 35.8% 31.9% 39.6% 31.6% 35.2% 35.6% 42.8% 27.8% 14.8% 21.2% 42.7% 40% 46.9%
Conservative, Poilievre 26.9% 31.2% 22.7% 28.1% 26.7% 27.8% 24.2% 32.3% 57.7% 40.8% 25.1% 11% 16.2%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 6.8% 7.3% 6.2% 5.6% 7.9% 7.5% 6% - - - - 29% -
NDP, Singh 10.1% 8.7% 11.5% 12.6% 13% 8.4% 5.2% 14.7% 4.6% 10.1% 10.7% 7.9% 14.6%
Green, Roberts 4.8% 4.1% 5.5% 6.2% 4.5% 3.6% 4.7% 8.4% 4.3% 8.3% 4.4% 2% 6.8%
People's Party, Bernier 3.1% 4.2% 2% 6.3% 2.5% 1.9% 1.1% 2.1% 4.2% 2.8% 2.8% 4.3% 1.4%
Another Party 1.4% 1% 1.8% 2% 0.5% 2% 1% 0.4% 1.7% 2.2% 2.2% 0.2% 1.9%
Undecided 11.1% 11.6% 10.7% 7.6% 9.7% 13.2% 15.1% 14.3% 12.7% 14.7% 12.2% 5.6% 12.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1470 818 652 241 377 473 379 228 143 90 581 342 86
Weighted Frequency 1470 728 742 409 368 405 288 200 166 96 564 343 101

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 35.8% 31.9% 39.6% 31.6% 35.2% 35.6% 42.8% 27.8% 14.8% 21.2% 42.7% 40% 46.9%
Conservative, Poilievre 26.9% 31.2% 22.7% 28.1% 26.7% 27.8% 24.2% 32.3% 57.7% 40.8% 25.1% 11% 16.2%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 6.8% 7.3% 6.2% 5.6% 7.9% 7.5% 6% - - - - 29% -
NDP, Singh 10.1% 8.7% 11.5% 12.6% 13% 8.4% 5.2% 14.7% 4.6% 10.1% 10.7% 7.9% 14.6%
Green, Roberts 4.8% 4.1% 5.5% 6.2% 4.5% 3.6% 4.7% 8.4% 4.3% 8.3% 4.4% 2% 6.8%
People's Party, Bernier 3.1% 4.2% 2% 6.3% 2.5% 1.9% 1.1% 2.1% 4.2% 2.8% 2.8% 4.3% 1.4%
Another Party 1.4% 1% 1.8% 2% 0.5% 2% 1% 0.4% 1.7% 2.2% 2.2% 0.2% 1.9%
Undecided 11.1% 11.6% 10.7% 7.6% 9.7% 13.2% 15.1% 14.3% 12.7% 14.7% 12.2% 5.6% 12.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1470 818 652 241 377 473 379 228 143 90 581 342 86
Weighted Frequency 1470 728 742 409 368 405 288 200 166 96 564 343 101
Thinking about candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party of
Canada, which candidate would you vote for if the federal election were
held today (GLADU)?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 36.4% 31.1% 41.7% 33.1% 34.9% 36.1% 43.5% 28.5% 13.7% 22% 42.7% 42.4% 48%
Conservative, Gladu 24.1% 27.4% 20.8% 27.8% 21.8% 25.2% 20.2% 27.1% 54.3% 36.5% 22% 10.3% 14.5%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 6.7% 7.3% 6.1% 5.2% 8.1% 7.1% 6.4% - - - - 28.7% -
NDP, Singh 10.6% 8.9% 12.3% 12.3% 13.5% 9.2% 6.5% 15.1% 4.7% 12.1% 11.6% 7.5% 15.3%
Green, Roberts 4.8% 4.6% 5% 6.5% 5% 3.9% 3.4% 8% 3.9% 9.5% 4.8% 1.7% 5.8%
People's Party, Bernier 3.6% 4.5% 2.7% 6.1% 4.1% 2.3% 1.3% 3.2% 6.3% 6.2% 3.1% 3.1%' 2.4%
Another Party 2% 2.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 2.6% 1.8% 2.5% 4.3% 1.8% 1.7% 0.9% 2.8%
Undecided 11.8% 13.9% 9.8% 7.3% 10.8% 13.5% 17% 15.6% 12.8% 12% 14.1% 5.5% 11.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1470 818 652 241 377 473 379 228 143 90 581 342 86
Weighted Frequency 1470 728 742 409 368 405 288 200 166 96 564 343 101

Total LPC CPC Bloc NDP Green PPC Other UD

Liberal, Trudeau 36.4% 92.5% 1.8% 1.1% 4.3% 3.4% - - 13.8%
Conservative, Gladu 24.1% 2.7% 70.2% 1.8% 1.9% 8.6% 6.4% 27.6% 7.5%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 6.7% 0.4% 0.5% 95.9% 0.8% - 4% 5.2% 2.5%
NDP, Singh 10.6% 2% 1.9% - 88.1% 7.5% 5.1% - 5.2%
Green, Roberts 4.8% 0.9% 0.8% - 1.5% 77.2% 2.3% 7.1% 0.7%
People's Party, Bernier 3.6% 0.2% 4.4% - - 0.9% 73.8% 12.2% 1.4%
Another Party 2% - 2% - 0.7% - - 37.4% 7%
Undecided 11.8% 1.3% 18.3% 1.3% 2.6% 2.4% 8.4% 10.5% 61.9%
Unweighted Frequency 1470 550 454 96 131 63 31 27 118
Weighted Frequency 1470 542 441 91 140 73 37 29 118
Thinking about candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party of
Canada, which candidate would you vote for if the federal election were
held today (MacKAY)?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 34.5% 29.3% 39.5% 34% 32.1% 32.4% 41% 26.2% 13.9% 20.3% 40.5% 39.5% 46.8%
Conservative, MacKay 31.7% 38.1% 25.5% 29.5% 28.5% 36.5% 32.2% 36.1% 62.7% 44.5% 31.4% 13.5% 23.7%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 6.3% 6.6% 6% 4.5% 7.6% 7.2% 5.9% - - - - 26.9% -
NDP, Singh 10% 8.6% 11.4% 12.3% 12.8% 8.7% 5.1% 16.8% 4% 9.5% 10% 8.9% 11.2%
Green, Roberts 4.6% 4% 5.1% 7.1% 4.3% 3.1% 3.4% 7.3% 3.9% 13.3% 4.1% 1.5% 4.9%
People's Party, Bernier 3.4% 4.5% 2.3% 6.3% 3.6% 2% 0.8% 2.6% 5.4% 4% 3.6% 2.9% 1.4%
Another Party 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.7% 1.8% 0.7% 1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 1.4% 0.9% 1.2%
Undecided 8.2% 7.6% 8.7% 4.9% 9.5% 8.2% 11% 9.4% 7.8% 6.6% 8.9% 6% 10.9%
Unweighted Frequency 1470 818 652 241 377 473 379 228 143 90 581 342 86
Weighted Frequency 1470 728 742 409 368 405 288 200 166 96 564 343 101

Total LPC CPC Bloc NDP Green PPC Other UD

Liberal, Trudeau 34.5% 87.7% 1% 1% 5.6% 6.6% 2.4% - 10.2%
Conservative, MacKay 31.7% 6.5% 86.2% 2.5% 6% 12.3% 9.3% 27.4% 17.1%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 6.3% 0.3% 0.3% 95.2% - 1.1% - - 1.9%
NDP, Singh 10% 1.9% 1.1% - 82.3% 6.9% 6.3% 5.2% 6.9%
Green, Roberts 4.6% 1.2% 0.8% - 3.1% 65.4% 2.4% 7.1% 1.7%
People's Party, Bernier 3.4% 0.4% 2.7% - - 0.9% 74.6% 19.3% 1.5%
Another Party 1.5% 0.3% 0.5% - 0.7% 2.4% - 33.9% 4.3%
Undecided 8.2% 1.8% 7.3% 1.3% 2.3% 4.3% 5% 7.1% 56.4%
Unweighted Frequency 1470 550 454 96 131 63 31 27 118
Weighted Frequency 1470 542 441 91 140 73 37 29 118
 As you might have heard, Ukraine International Airlines flight 752
was shot down last Wednesday and all 176 passengers were killed,
including 57 Canadians. The Iranian government has since claimed that
unintentionally shot down the plane. Who do you think is more to blame
for the downing of Flight 752?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Trump Administration 34% 30.6% 37.2% 32.9% 28.9% 34.9% 40.8% 38.1% 21.7% 22.4% 34.8% 37.7% 39.4%
Iranian Government 49.6% 56.8% 42.6% 49.4% 51.3% 50.6% 46.5% 45.7% 66.6% 64% 48.4% 43.6% 43.2%
Not Sure 16.4% 12.6% 20.1% 17.8% 19.8% 14.5% 12.8% 16.2% 11.8% 13.6% 16.8% 18.7% 17.4%
Unweighted Frequency 1470 818 652 241 377 473 379 228 143 90 581 342 86
Weighted Frequency 1470 728 742 409 368 405 288 200 166 96 564 343 101

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Trump Administration 34% 30.6% 37.2% 32.9% 28.9% 34.9% 40.8% 38.1% 21.7% 22.4% 34.8% 37.7% 39.4%
Iranian Government 49.6% 56.8% 42.6% 49.4% 51.3% 50.6% 46.5% 45.7% 66.6% 64% 48.4% 43.6% 43.2%
Not Sure 16.4% 12.6% 20.1% 17.8% 19.8% 14.5% 12.8% 16.2% 11.8% 13.6% 16.8% 18.7% 17.4%
Unweighted Frequency 1470 818 652 241 377 473 379 228 143 90 581 342 86
Weighted Frequency 1470 728 742 409 368 405 288 200 166 96 564 343 101

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Prime Minister Justin

Trudeau has handled the issue of the shooting of Flight 752?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Strongly Approve 30.1% 28.1% 32.2% 25.3% 27% 30.7% 40.2% 28.9% 17% 14.6% 31.8% 35.8% 40.7%
Somewhat Approve 27.1% 28.1% 26.2% 25.7% 29.5% 26.4% 27.1% 24.2% 18.9% 29.8% 28.5% 30% 26.4%
Somewhat Disapprove 10.5% 10.7% 10.4% 10.9% 8.2% 12.4% 10.3% 13.6% 16.9% 10.8% 9.4% 9.4% 4.1%
Strongly Disapprove 18.2% 21.7% 14.8% 22.8% 16.8% 18.4% 13.3% 15.7% 38.5% 29.9% 16.7% 9.5% 16.8%
Not Sure 14% 11.5% 16.4% 15.2% 18.5% 12.1% 9.1% 17.6% 8.7% 15% 13.6% 15.3% 12%
Unweighted Frequency 1470 818 652 241 377 473 379 228 143 90 581 342 86
Weighted Frequency 1470 728 742 409 368 405 288 200 166 96 564 343 101

Total LPC CPC Bloc NDP Green PPC Other UD

Strongly Approve 30.1% 57.4% 6.4% 23.9% 18.7% 29.1% 17.4% 15.6% 19.9%
Somewhat Approve 27.1% 27% 20.5% 37% 39.8% 39.4% 27.9% 8% 26.2%
Somewhat Disapprove 10.5% 4.1% 19.4% 11% 9.9% 6.5% 9.1% 14.3% 9.6%
Strongly Disapprove 18.2% 1.9% 41.7% 6.2% 9.7% 11.8% 36.1% 56.4% 13.7%
Not Sure 14% 9.5% 12% 21.9% 21.8% 13.2% 9.5% 5.8% 30.7%
Unweighted Frequency 1470 550 454 96 131 63 31 27 118
Weighted Frequency 1470 542 441 91 140 73 37 29 118
Questionnaire
If the federal election were held today, which
party would you vote for?
The Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau
The Conservative Party of Canada led by Andrew
Scheer
The New Democratic Party of Canada led by
Jagmeet Singh
The Green Party of Canada led by Jo-Ann Roberts
The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet
The People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier
Another Party
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards?
(only asked of respondents who indicated they
were undecided in the previous question)
The Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau
The Conservative Party of Canada led by Andrew
Scheer
The New Democratic Party of Canada led by
Jagmeet Singh
The Green Party of Canada led by Jo-Ann Roberts
The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet
The People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier
Another Party
Undecided
We would now like to ask you about different
ballot scenarios with different candidates.
Thinking about candidates for the leadership
of the Conservative Party of Canada, which
candidate would you vote for if the federal
election were held today?
The Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau
The Conservative Party of Canada led by Pierre
Poilievre
The New Democratic Party of Canada led by
Jagmeet Singh
The Green Party of Canada led by Jo-Ann Roberts
The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet
The People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier
Another Party
Undecided
And again but with a different ballot scenario,
which candidate would you vote for if the federal
election were held today?
The Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau
The Conservative Party of Canada led by Marilyn
Gladu
The New Democratic Party of Canada led by
Jagmeet Singh
The Green Party of Canada led by Jo-Ann Roberts
The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet
The People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier
Another Party
Undecided
Once again but with a different ballot scenario,
which candidate would you vote for if the federal
election were held today?
The Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau
The Conservative Party of Canada led by Peter
McKay
The New Democratic Party of Canada led by
Jagmeet Singh
The Green Party of Canada led by Jo-Ann Roberts
The Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet
The People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier
Another Party
Undecided
As you might have heard, Ukraine International
Airlines flight 752 was shot down last
Wednesday and all 176 passengers were killed,
including 57 Canadians. The Iranian government
has since claimed that unintentionally shot down
the plane.
Who do you think is more to blame for the
downing of Flight 752?
The US administration of Donald Trump
The Iranian government is to blame
Not Sure
Do you approve or disapprove of the way that
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has handled the
issue of the shooting of Flight 752?
Srongly approve
Somewhat approve
Smewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not Sure
What is your gender?
Male
Female
What is your age group?
18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on January 16th and
17th, 2020, among a sample of 1470 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada. The
survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population
of Canada.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was sponsored by iPolitics.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over different times of day and two days to maximize
the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as
evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is
added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.55% at the 95% confidence level.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.