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Crystal Ball Data

Workbook Variables Last Var Column


Name:
Value:

Worksheet Data Last Data Column Used


3

Sheet Ref
#NAME? #NAME?

Sheet Guid
e78d57b8-334d-4af7-97f2-09c553e35ed9
2bc41398-a5b2-4682-9dec-61f4e93dac44

Deleted sheet count

Last row used


28 26

Data blocks
CB_Block_0
㜸〱敤㜸㜸㜸ㅣ搷 摥 㜸㐹敥 攵 挷愶攳搸 㘵 戶 ㈸ 搶挵 㐴㕡 挹㐹 ㍤㈳ 捦捣 愲 ㌳摣
㐶攲挴㈹ 挷 㜸愴 ㈸㜸ㄶ㕡
㤲㉣昵 㜸ㅣ晡㜸㜸㜸
晡搲扡 㘹ㄶ
Decisioneering:7.0.0.0
0

#NAME?

4dadaf37-0bad-4afb-9473-f7e3b2218ed9

26

㍤㈳ 捦捣 愲 ㌳摣
㐶攲挴㈹ 挷 㜸愴 ㈸㜸ㄶ㕡
㤲㉣昵 㜸ㅣ晡㜸㜸㜸
晡搲扡 ㄶ㤲愹改㜸搹
㘹搲收 戴㜸㉦昲
攵愱㈰づ㜸改ㅣ㜸㜸摣搲㜸戵㌳㜸挵㜸捥㜸㜸捥ㅡ晦㜸昵ㄶ晣愵㜸㜸ㄴ㉥晦㉦攵愵
〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰
ㅡ 晦㜸昵ㄶ晣愵㜸㜸ㄴ㉥晦㉦攵愵 〴 㜸㜸〳昷㜸〵㐴㜸晢㄰晦て 㜸ㄱ攵〲ㄴつ 〰つ 〰つち て 〰
〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰
〰 て〶 つ 〱
〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰
つ 戹㜸扣搲 昳
〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰
捦愶 摦 戰 昵 㜰
㕥 散㈷㘵 戲昴晤慥
Quantity Ordered for Cell Name Input Cells
Oil Data 1993 Oil Ordered for 93 800 gallons
Oil price 1993
Quantity Ordered for Oil price 1993 $22.00 per gallon
1994 Oil Ordered for 94 3000 gallons
Gallons to case
conversion factors liters/bottle liters per bottle 0.75
bottles/case bottles per case 12
liters/gal liters per gal 3.79

Potential Uncertainties

Assumed Value
Bottling Data Quantity lost in set up Bottle set up losses 25 gallons
Variable losses in bottling Bottle variable losses 3% of volume
Quantity lost in clean up Bottle clean up losses 5 gallons
Bottling Set up Costs Bottling set up costs $3,000
Variable costs of bottling Per bottle charge $0.30 per bottle

Market Data Demand in 1993 Demand_1993 350


Demand in 1994 Demand_1994 1,150
Growth Rate thereafter Demand_growth_rate 50%

Wholesale price per case Revenue Per case sold $150.00


Salvage value Salvage percentage value 10%
Broker Take 1993 Broker fee 20% of revenue
Broker Take after 1993 20% of revenue
Marketing Cases Marketing_case_fraction 5% of cases available for sale

Miscellaneous Costs Material Cost of supplies $6.69 per case


Freight Freight expenses per case $4.00 per case sold
Printing Printing_costs_per_case $0.12 per case
Warehouse Warehouse expenses $3.50 per case available for sale
Advertising
General and Advertising_fraction 3.0% of retail sales
administrative GA_Fraction 1.5% of revenue

Value of inventory Value of inventory $50.00 per case


Oil prices for 1994
first 500 gallons at
per gallon next 500 gallons at
next 500 gallons at
next 500 gallons at
additional gallons at

Ranges assigned by Frank


Low Base High
15 25 50
of volume 2% 3% 5%
5 5 5
$2,000 $3,000 $4,000
per bottle $0.25 $0.30 $0.40

50 350 500
25 1,150 1,500
-5% 50% 100%

$130.00 $150.00 $170.00


3% 10% 20%
of revenue 20% 20% 20%
of revenue 10% 20% 25%
of cases available for sale 2% 5% 10%

$4.00 $6.69 $8.00


per case sold $3.00 $4.00 $6.00
$0.12 $0.12 $0.12
per case available for sale $3.00 $3.50 $4.00
of retail sales 1.5% 3.0% 5.0%
of revenue 1.0% 1.5% 4.0%

$40.00 $50.00 $60.00


Calambra Olive Oil Cash Flows

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997


Continue Business at end of year FALSE #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Oil Supply
Gallons planned 4,500 6,750 10,000
Gallons of oil ordered 0 0 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Cost of Oil ($) $0 $0 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Bottling
Net gallons in bottles 773 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Cases produced #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Bottling costs $0 $0 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!


Printing #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Other Materials #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Total Cost of Bottling #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Cases Available
Cases carried over from prev. year 0 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Cases produced #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Total Cases available #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Warehouse Costs #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Demand for Oil (cases) #NAME? #NAME? #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Disposition of Oil
Cases given away for marketing purposes
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Cases sold at full price #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Cases sold in liquidation #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Cases left over at end of year #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Revenue
Full price sales #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Liquidation sales #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Total Revenue #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Selling expenses
Freight #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Broker #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Advertising #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Total Selling Expenses #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Cost of Goods Sold


Oil Costs $0 $0 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Bottling Costs #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Warehouse Costs #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Selling Expenses #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Total Cost of Goods Sold #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

General and Administrative Expenses #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!


Start up expenses $1,100
Profit #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Inventory credit #VALUE!


Total value at end of year 2 #VALUE!
Tornado Sensitivity Chart

Revenue Per case sold


Broker Take after 1993
Demand_1994
Cost of supplies
Advertising_fraction
Marketing_case_fraction
Freight expenses per case
Warehouse expenses
Parameter Per bottle charge
GA_Fraction
Bottling set up costs
Bottle variable losses
Bottle set up losses
Value of inventory
Value of inventory
Demand_1993
Demand_growth_rate
Salvage percentage value
38974.83 48974.83 58974.83 68
Value at the end of 2 years

-10 Pct +10 Pct


DATA TABLE
Parameter -10 Pct +10 Pct Range
Revenue Per case sold ### ### ###
Broker Take after 1993 ### ### 6900.00
Demand_1994 ### ### 6840.41
Cost of supplies ### ### 2055.17
Advertising_fraction ### ### 1312.88
Marketing_case_fraction ### ### 1292.66
Freight expenses per case ### ### 1167.00
Warehouse expenses ### ### 1075.20
Per bottle charge ### ### 871.92
GA_Fraction ### ### 656.44
Bottling set up costs ### ### 600.00
Bottle variable losses ### ### 467.21
Bottle set up losses ### ### 96.81
Value of inventory ### ### 4.50
Value of inventory ### ### 4.50
Demand_1993 ### ### 0.00
Demand_growth_rate ### ### 0.00
Salvage percentage value ### ### 0.00

.83 58974.83 68974.83


of 2 years
PARAMETER INFO
Base Case Result Base Case % Sensitivity -% +%
55495.18 150.00 10.00 135.00 165.00
55495.18 0.20 10.00 0.18 0.22
55495.18 1150.00 10.00 ### ###
55495.18 6.69 10.00 6.02 7.36
55495.18 0.03 10.00 0.03 0.03
55495.18 0.05 10.00 0.05 0.06
55495.18 4.00 10.00 3.60 4.40
55495.18 3.50 10.00 3.15 3.85
55495.18 0.30 10.00 0.27 0.33
55495.18 0.02 10.00 0.01 0.02
55495.18 3000.00 10.00 ### ###
55495.18 0.03 10.00 0.03 0.03
55495.18 25.00 10.00 22.50 27.50
55495.18 50.00 10.00 45.00 55.00
55495.18 50.00 10.00 45.00 55.00
55495.18 350.00 10.00 315.00 385.00
55495.18 0.50 10.00 0.45 0.55
55495.18 0.10 10.00 0.09 0.11
Revenue Per case soldProfit
$130.00 ###
$131.00 ### Profit vs Revenue per cas
$132.00 ###
$133.00 ###
$134.00 ###
$135.00 ### $83,468
$136.00 ### $78,468
$137.00 ### $73,468
$138.00 ### $68,468
$139.00 ### $63,468
$140.00 ### $58,468

Profit
$141.00 ### $53,468
$142.00 ###
$48,468
$143.00 ###
$43,468
$144.00 ###
$145.00 ### $38,468
$146.00 ### $33,468
$147.00 ### $130.00 $135.00 $140.00 $145.00 $150.00 $155.00 $160.
$148.00 ### Revenue Per case sold
$149.00 ###
$150.00 ###
$151.00 ###
$152.00 ###
$153.00 ###
$154.00 ###
$155.00 ###
$156.00 ###
$157.00 ###
$158.00 ###
$159.00 ###
$160.00 ###
$161.00 ###
$162.00 ###
$163.00 ###
$164.00 ###
$165.00 ###
$166.00 ###
$167.00 ###
$168.00 ###
$169.00 ###
$170.00 ###
enue per case sold sensitivity analysis

150.00 $155.00 $160.00 $165.00 $170.00


r case sold
Revenue
Profit
Per case sold
10% ###
11% ### Profit vs Broker Take after 1993
12% ###
13% ###
14% ###
15% ### $76,870
16% ###
$71,870
17% ###
18% ### $66,870
19% ###
$61,870
Profit
20% ###
21% ###
$56,870
22% ###
23% ### $51,870
24% ###
25% ### $46,870
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 2
Broker Take after 1993
ke after 1993

20% 22% 24%


Demand_1994
Profit
25 ###
75 -$8,199
125 -$5,236 Profit vs Demand_1994
175 -$2,274
225 $689
275 $3,651
325 $6,614 $68,839
375 $9,576 $58,839
425 $12,539
$48,839
475 $15,501
525 $18,464 $38,839
575 $21,426 $28,839
625 $24,389 Profit
$18,839
675 $27,351
725 $30,314 $8,839
775 $33,276 -$1,161
825 $36,239
875 $39,201 -$11,161
925 $42,164 25 225 425 625 825 1,025 1,22
975 $45,126 Demand_1994
1,025 $48,089
1,075 $51,051
1,125 $54,014
1,175 $55,522
1,225 $55,522
1,275 $55,522
1,325 $55,522
1,375 $55,522
1,425 $55,522
1,475 $55,522
1,500 $55,522
and_1994

825 1,025 1,225 1,425


_1994
Cost of supplies
Profit
$4.00 ###
$4.20 ###
$4.40 ### Profit vs Cost of supplies
$4.60 ###
$4.80 ###
$5.00 ###
$5.20 ### $60,483
$5.40 ###
$59,483
$5.60 ###
$5.80 ### $58,483
$6.00 ###
$6.20 ### $57,483
$6.40 ### Profit $56,483
$6.60 ###
$6.80 ### $55,483
$7.00 ###
$7.20 ### $54,483
$7.40 ###
$7.60 ### $53,483
$7.80 ### $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $
$8.00 ### Cost of supplies
of supplies

$6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00


upplies