Probabilistic Analytical Model for Settlement Risk

Assessment of High-Speed Railway Subgrade

R. P. Chen, M.ASCE 1; P. Jiang 2; X. W. Ye 3; and X. C. Bian 4
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Channabasaveshwara Institute of Technology on 10/09/15. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

Abstract: It is crucial for the design and operation of a high-speed railway to estimate and control the accumulative settlement of the
subgrade induced by cyclic train loading. In this study, an analytical model, considering the effect of the initial stress state, is proposed
to predict the accumulative settlement of high-speed railway subgrade. Dynamic load triaxial tests are conducted to determine the parameters
involved in the computational model. Full-scale model experiments are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed computational
model in predicting the accumulative settlement of high-speed railway subgrade. A probabilistic analytical model is developed for a reli-
ability-based settlement risk assessment of the subgrade by considering the uncertainties and randomness of the relevant parameters. The
coefficient of variation (COV) of the dynamic stress on the subgrade surface caused by train loading is derived from field data measured on the
Wuhan-Guangzhou High-Speed Railway, China. A Monte Carlo simulation is employed to analyze the statistical properties of the accu-
mulative settlement. The effects of the dominant parameters on the reliability index, including the mean value and the COV of the stochastic
parameters as well as water level variation, are calculated through a sensitivity analysis. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000789.
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Author keywords: High-speed railway subgrade; Accumulative settlement; Full-scale model test; Probabilistic model; Reliability analysis.

Introduction
In recent years, many high-speed railways have been constructed
and operated in China for wide-range passenger transportation. Ac-
cording to several national and international codes and standards
(Ministry of Railways of the People’s Republic of China 2007;
German Railway Standard 2008), postsettlement of a high-speed
railway should be strictly maintained within a safe margin.
Generally, postsettlement of a high-speed railway comprises the
compressed settlement caused by its self-weight and the accumu-
lative settlement induced by train loading. Although the mecha-
nisms of these two settlement components are different, field
measurements indicate that the dynamic loading from train traffic
is the more influential on postsettlement (Tohno and Iwata 1989). A
few incidents on the accumulative settlement of such railways have
been reported in the literature. For example, the first high-speed
railway in Japan, the Hokkaido Shinkansen, was designed without
considering the effect of cyclic train loading, resulting in postset-
tlement increasing so much in operation that the train speed was
limited to 110–180 km=h from the expected design speed of
210 km=h (Yang et al. 1998). In the case of one railway in Japan,
the accumulative settlement caused by train loading reached 1 m
after 5 years of operation (Andersen et al. 1978). In addition,
1
Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang Univ., Hangzhou
310058, China.
2
M.Sc. Candidate, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang Univ.,
Hangzhou 310058, China.
3
Associate Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang Univ.,
Hangzhou 310058, China (corresponding author). E-mail: cexwye@zju
.edu.cn
4
Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang Univ., Hangzhou
310058, China.
Note. This manuscript was submitted on October 6, 2014; approved on
April 17, 2015; published online on June 22, 2015. Discussion period open
until November 22, 2015; separate discussions must be submitted for in-
dividual papers. This paper is part of the Journal of Performance of Con-
structed Facilities, © ASCE, ISSN 0887-3828/04015047(10)/$25.00.
the total settlement of the Shanghai Metro Line 1 was 2–6 mm
during the 2 years before its opening to traffic, but reached
140 mm after 4 years of operation (Chen et al. 2002).
It is crucial for high-speed railway design and operation to
estimate the accumulative settlement under cyclic train loading
(Zhou et al. 2012). A series of empirical models have been devel-
oped to predict the permanent strain on the roadbed filling and the
ground soil by dynamic load triaxial tests. Monismith et al. (1975)
proposed a practical exponential model for fine-grained soil de-
pending on dynamic load triaxial tests, but the parameters in the
model were too dispersed. Li and Selig (1996) then put static
strength parameters into this model and presented the ranges of
those parameters for different types of soils. Chai and Miura
(2002) introduced initial static deviator stress into the previously
mentioned model. For unbound granular materials, Gidel et al.
(2001) developed a model accounting for the stress state, the dy-
namic stress, and the soil properties. Later, the influence of hori-
zontal restraints was taken into account in the settlement prediction
model (Abdelkrim et al. 2003, 2006; Chen et al. 2014a).
Over several decades, many investigations have been conducted
on settlement evaluation taking into account uncertainties in mate-
rials, geometries, and loads. Alonso and Krisek (1973) described
the expression of the mean value and the standard deviation of
the ground settlement by incorporating significant uncertainties
into the settlement estimation. By considering the uncertainties
of soil compressibility and loads, Krizek et al. (1977) formulated
a probabilistic model for evaluating the total settlement and the rate
of settlement of a compressible clay layer. They found that the total
settlement and its rate were well predicted by a log-normal distri-
bution. Paice et al. (1996) concluded that the settlement for an elas-
tic heterogeneous soil was approximately 12% higher than the
determined value if the coefficient of variation (COV) of Young’s
modulus is 42%. Fenton and Griffiths (2002) carried out the
numerical study of a single footing founded on a soil layer over-
lying bedrock, and found that the settlement and the differential
settlement could be predicted by a log-normal distribution when
the distribution of the elastic modulus was log-normal.

© ASCE 04015047-1 J. Perform. Constr. Facil.

J. Perform. Constr. Facil., 04015047

 Considering the uncertainties and randomness inherent in the
material properties and measurement data, it is acceptable to assess
the postsettlement of the railway in a probabilistic way for the fol-
lowing reasons: (1) using laboratory test results of specimens to
simulate the roadbed filling will bring significant uncertainties
and difference; (2) the extent of test data for the parameters of
the roadbed filling is limited for economic reasons, and thus the
data statistics show discreteness; (3) the changes in train speed
and type will bring randomness to the dynamic stress of the sub-
grade; and (4) the material properties as well as the stress history
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Channabasaveshwara Institute of Technology on 10/09/15. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
and environmental changes will bring randomness during the ser-
vice life of the railway. In view of these factors, research on prob-
abilistic assessments of railway settlement has been conducted,
with most focusing on the retaining wall (Goh et al. 2009) and
the railway slope (Manning et al. 2008). There have been few
investigations on reliability-based postsettlement assessment of
high-speed railways, especially the accumulative settlement caused
by train loading.
In the present study, a probabilistic analytical model considering
the influence of the initial stress state is proposed for risk assess-
ment of the accumulative settlement of the high-speed railway sub-
grade under cyclic train loading. The parameters involved in the
computational model are determined by dynamic load triaxial tests.
Full-scale model experiments are carried out to verify the effective-
ness of the developed analytical model. The COV of the dynamic
stress on the subgrade surface caused by train loading is derived by
use of field measurement data from the Wuhan-Guangzhou High-
Speed Railway, China. A Monte Carlo simulation method is
employed for analysis of the reliability index and the failure prob-
ability of the accumulative settlement. The effect of the mean value
and the COV of the stochastic parameters as well as that of water
level variation on the reliability index are investigated.
Analytical Model for Accumulative Settlement
Calculation
Expression of Dynamic Stress
Due to the high stiffness of a ballastless track structure, the dynamic
stress on the subgrade surface spreads uniformly in the longitudinal
direction. The train loading is assumed as the strip load on the sub-
grade surface as specified in the German Railway Standard (2008).
The distribution of the dynamic stress in the subgrade with respect
to the depth can be calculated by the Boussinesq solution as ex-
pressed by


2p0 n 1
σz ¼ þ arctan ð1Þ
π 1 þ n2 n tance between the surface layer of the subgrade and the bottom
where p0 = dynamic stress on the subgrade surface; and n ¼ z=b,
where b is the half-width of the stress distribution on the subgrade
surface, and z is the depth from the subgrade surface.
Calculation of Permanent Strain
The calculation model for the permanent strain should take into
account major influencing factors such as the stress state, the num-
ber of repeated load applications, the soil type, and the physical
state of the soil. According to Gidel et al. (2001) work, the cyclic
constitutive model describing the permanent strain of a soil element
under cyclic train loading is obtained by
εp1 ¼ εp0 ð1 − N −B Þfðpref ; qref Þ · gðpref ; qref Þ
© ASCE
J. Perform. Constr. Facil., 04015047
where εp1 = accumulated permanent strain under cyclic train load-
ing; pref and qref = peak mean stress and peak deviatory stress
caused by cyclic train loading, respectively; fðpref ; qref Þ = function
of the stress cycle amplitude influencing the permanent strain; and
gðpref ; qref Þ = proximity of the peak stress point with respect to a
kind of ultimate line whose equation is denoted as q ¼ s þ mp.
These two functions are defined as
qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
fðpref ; qref Þ ¼ ðL=100Þn ; L¼ p2ref þ q2ref ð3Þ
pref
gðpref ; qref Þ ¼ ð4Þ
s þ mpref − qref
where εp0 , B, n, s, and m = material parameters.
Considering the initial stress distribution of the high-speed rail-
way subgrade, the initial mean stress and the initial deviatory stress
caused by self-weight is incorporated, and therefore Eq. (2) can be
modified as
εp1 ðNÞ ¼ εp0 ð1 − N −B Þfðpref ; qref Þ · gðpm þ pref ; qm þ qref Þ ð5Þ
Because most high-speed railways have a large traffic volume,
the permanent strain trends to a stable value within several years.
When N is infinite, the permanent strain is expressed as
εp2 ð∞Þ ¼ εp0 · fðpref ; qref Þ · gðpm þ pref ; qm þ qref Þ ð6Þ
where εp2 = ultimate permanent strain under cyclic train loading.
Derivation of Ultimate Accumulative Settlement
The ultimate accumulative settlement of high-speed railway sub-
grade is estimated by the layerwise summation method on the basis
of Eq. (6). In accordance with the design code for high-speed rail-
ways issued by the Ministry of Railway of the People’s Republic of
China (2009), the thickness of the subgrade is determined by the
principle that the ratio of the dynamic stress caused by the train
loading at the bottom surface of the subgrade and the self-weight
of the subgrade is 0.2. The dynamic stress induced by the train
loading will be gradually dissipated with depth until the upper sur-
face of the foundation zone. That is to say, the influence of the train
loading on the settlement of the foundation zone is relatively small.
So, in this study, the accumulative settlement caused by the train
loading is mainly limited to the subgrade zone. Dividing the dis-
layer of the subgrade into 14 layers of thickness 0.2 m, the ultimate
permanent strain of each layer can be estimated by Eq. (6). By a
layerwise summation, the ultimate accumulative settlement of the
high-speed railway subgrade is calculated by
X
n
S∞ ¼ εp2i ð∞Þhi
i¼1
X
n
n
Li pref þ pm
¼ εp0 ð7Þ
i¼1
100 s þ mðpref þ pm Þ − ðqref þ qm Þ
where εp and n are determined by repeated triaxial tests, and s and
m are related to the soil strength, which can be calculated by the
ð2Þ strength parameters c and φ.
04015047-2 J. Perform. Constr. Facil.

Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Channabasaveshwara Institute of Technology on 10/09/15. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
Fig. 1. Full-scale model of high-speed railway subgrade with ballast-
less track structure (image by P. Jiang)
Experimental Verification of Settlement
Computational Model
Physical Model Establishment
In accordance with the real geometrical and mechanical properties
of the high-speed railway in China, a full-scale physical model of
the high-speed railway subgrade with a ballastless track structure
was established at Zhejiang University, China, as illustrated in
Fig. 1. The test model, which is constructed within a rigid test
chamber with a height of 6 m, a width of 5 m, and a length of
15 m, consists of the foundation zone, a layer of sand mat, the bot-
tom layer of the subgrade, the surface layer of the subgrade, the
concrete base, the concrete-asphalt (CA) mortar, the track slab,
the fastening system, and the rails. In the experimental study of
this full-scale model, three kinds of sensors, i.e., displacement
transducer, velocity transducer, and soil pressure cell, are em-
ployed. The displacement transducer is installed on the subgrade
surface to measure the accumulative settlement of the subgrade.
The velocity transducer is deployed on the surface of the track slab
and the surface layer of the subgrade to measure the dynamic
properties of the track structure system and the subgrade. Fig. 2
illustrates the cross section of the full-scale physical model and
the sensor deployment scheme.
Establishment of the full-scale model mainly involves ramming
of the foundation soil, sensor installation, construction of the
Fig. 2. Cross section of full-scale model and sensor deployment
scheme
© ASCE
J. Perform. Constr. Facil., 04015047
bottom layer of the subgrade, construction of the surface layer
of the subgrade, pouring of the concrete base, installation of the
track slab, pouring of the CA mortar, and fixing of the distributed
loading system. Some photos of the full-scale model establishment
are shown in Fig. 3. To absorb the energy waves propagating to the
boundaries of the test chamber, the bottom of the test chamber was
treated by setting a layer of sand mat with a thickness of 0.5 m, and
the sides of the test chamber were painted with epoxy resin and
covered by a geomembrane.
The thickness of the concrete base of the ballastless track
structure is 0.3 m and the plan size is 5 × 3 m. The track slab is
a Chinese standard CRTS I (Ministry of Railways of the People’s
Republic of China 2007) type of size 4.962 × 2.4 × 0.19 m. The
fastening system is Chinese standard WJ-7 (Ministry of Railways
of the People’s Republic of China 2007) type and the rail is Chinese
standard CHN 60 (Ministry of Railways of the People’s Republic of
China 2007) type. The established physical model is strictly consis-
tent with the Chinese high-speed railway specifications. The physi-
cal parameters of the subgrade and the ballastless track structure are
listed in Table 1. The foundation soil is silt. The bottom layer of
the subgrade is filled with coarse sand, while the surface layer of
the subgrade is filled with graded gravel. The particle distribution
of silt, coarse sand, and graded gravel is illustrated in Fig. 4.
The subgrade and the foundation soil are compacted and
rammed layer by layer. The compaction quality is controlled by
the water content and compaction density of the filling. When com-
paction is completed, static cone tests were conducted to ensure that
the specific penetration resistance exceeds the minimum value as
specified in the high-speed railway design standard. The subgrade
reaction coefficient, K 30 , the second strain modulus, Ev2 , and the
compaction coefficient, K, are listed in Table 2.
Train Loading Simulation
The loading system consists of the reaction device, the actuators,
and the distribution beam. The actuators are arranged along the lon-
gitudinal direction of the ballastless track structure, as illustrated in
Fig. 1. The actuator loading can reach 200 kN and the maximum
actuator frequency is 30 Hz. The loading curves contain a sine
wave, half-sine wave, and M wave. The train speed is simulated
by setting a phase difference between the different actuators.
Based on previous investigations of the test model, the loading
time history on a single fastener generated by one wheel axle is ap-
proximated to a Gaussian function. One bogie consists of two wheel
axles, and therefore the loading curve can be regarded as the super-
imposition of two Gaussian functions, which looks like an M-type
wave. Fig. 5 shows the time history curve of the dynamic loading on
the fastener. The actuators are employed to simulate the dynamic
loading of a bogie on one fastener. The rails are cut into separate
portions to avoid the interference of different fasteners, while the
connections between rails and fasteners are not changed. To simulate
the train loading, the loading curve of the adjacent fasteners has a
phase difference. The relationship between the loading frequency,
the train speed, and the phase difference is calculated by
v l
f ¼4× ; Δφ ¼ 360° × ð8Þ
3.6 L L
where f = loading frequency of one axle, which is equivalent to the
quadrupled frequency of one carriage; v = simulation train speed;
L = length of one carriage (24.875 m for China Railway High-speed
3 (CRH3), which is the train type in the model); l = distance between
adjacent fasteners, which is 0.625 m; and Δφ = phase difference
between the adjacent actuators and is 9°. Table 3 shows typical
scenarios.
04015047-3 J. Perform. Constr. Facil.
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Channabasaveshwara Institute of Technology on 10/09/15. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

Sensor deployment Installation of track structure

(a) (b)

Assembly of loading system

(c)

Fig. 3. Photos of full-scale model (images by P. Jiang): (a) sensor deployment; (b) installation of track structure; (c) assembly of loading system

Table 1. Physical Parameters of Subgrade and Ballastless Track Structure Table 2. Soil Properties of Subgrade
Elastic Soil layer Thickness K 30 (MPa=m) Ev2 (MPa) K
modulus Poisson’s Density Thickness
Graded gravel 0.4 207–285 101–140 0.97
Layer type (MPa) ratio (kg=m−3 ) (m)
Coarse sand 2.3 140–155 47–52 0.94
Track slab 3.5 × 104 0.167 3.0 × 103 0.2
CA mortar 92 0.4 2.0 × 103 0.05
Concrete base 2.4 × 104 0.2 2.7 × 103 0.3
Surface layer of subgrade 60 0.25 2.4 × 103 0.4 Comparative Analysis between Model Test and
Bottom layer of subgrade 35 0.15 1.8 × 103 2.3 Computational Model

Determining Parameters in Computational Model

In Eq. (7), a total of four material parameters are involved in the
100
Graded gravel computational model. The determination of those parameters is de-
Coarse sand tailed in the following. By triaxial testing of the coarse sand at the
Silt bottom layer of the subgrade, the apparent cohesion, c, and the in-
80 ternal friction angle, φ, are obtained as 0 kPa and 35°, respectively.
Passing percentage (%)

The parameters s and m are denoted as the intercept and the slope
of the strength envelope in the p-q plane, representing the influence
60
of the function, g, on the accumulative settlement. The stress path
changes with the initial stress state of the subgrade. That is to say,
40 the stress state path moves on the basis of the line q ¼ qm =pm .
pðqm =pm ¼ 0.97Þ, and thus the parameter m should be modified
as (Bian et al. 2010)
20

6 sin φ 6 sin φ 6c cos φ

m¼ ; mv ¼ þ 0.97; s¼ ð9Þ
0 3 − sin φ 3 − sin φ 3 − cos φ
100 10 1 0.1 0.01 1E-3 1E-4
Grain size (mm) To determine the parameters εp0 and n related to the strain am-
plitude, dynamic load triaxial tests of the coarse sand were
Fig. 4. Particle distribution curves of coarse sand and silt soil
conducted under waterless conditions and saturated conditions,

© ASCE 04015047-4 J. Perform. Constr. Facil.

J. Perform. Constr. Facil., 04015047

Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Channabasaveshwara Institute of Technology on 10/09/15. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

Fig. 5. Loading time history on fastener

0.0016
Table 3. Relationship between Loading Frequency, Train Speed, and
Phase Difference 60 kPa 90 kPa 120 kPa
0.0014 180 kPa 210 kPa
Train speed Loading frequency Phase difference between
(km=h) of one axle (Hz) adjacent actuators (°) 0.0012
18 0.8 9

Permanent strain
108 4.8 9 0.0010
144 6.4 9
180 8.0 9 0.0008
270 12.1 9
360 16.1 9 0.0006

0.0004

0.0002
respectively. It is seen from Fig. 6 that the permanent strain of the
coarse sand increases rapidly with the number of the loading 0.0000
0
cycle. When the number of loading cycles reaches 10,000, the 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
permanent strain remains steady. In order to determine the material (a) Loading number
parameters εp0 and n, the values obtained at the end of the loading
stage after 30,000 cycles are assumed to be the ultimate permanent
strain. The material parameters εp0 and n are then obtained by 0.0020 60 kPa 90 kPa 120 kPa
fitting the ultimate permanent strain to Eq. (6), as illustrated 180 kPa 210 kPa
in Fig. 7.
0.0016
Permanent strain

Dynamic Stress Distribution along Depth

0.0012
The dynamic stress in the subgrade caused by cyclic train loading is
measured by the soil pressure cell. Fig. 8 shows the measured dy-
namic stresses in the subgrade during the model test, which are 0.0008
compared with the results calculated by Eq. (1) and the field meas-
urement data from the Wuhan-Guangzhou High-Speed Railway. It
is seen from Fig. 8 that the dynamic stress induced by train loading 0.0004
will be gradually dissipated with depth.

0.0000
0
Vibration Velocity Generated by Dynamic Loading 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Fig. 9 illustrates the vibration velocities of the track slab and the
surface layer of the subgrade recorded by the velocity transducers.
Fig. 10 shows the relationship between the train speed and the vi-
bration velocity of the track slab and the surface layer of the sub-
grade. From Figs. 9 and 10 it can be seen that when the train
velocity increases, the amplitude of the vibration velocities of
the track slab and the surface layer of the subgrade also increase.
In addition, the vibration velocity of the track slab is greater than
that of the surface layer of the subgrade.
(b) Loading number
Fig. 6. Development of permanent strain: (a) under waterless condi-
tions; (b) under saturated conditions
Results Obtained for Accumulative Settlement
After the dynamic stress of the subgrade and the material param-
eters have been determined, the ultimate accumulative settlement of

© ASCE 04015047-5 J. Perform. Constr. Facil.

J. Perform. Constr. Facil., 04015047

 0.0013 15
360 km/h

0.0012 Experimental 10
216 km/h
Fitting curve

Vibration velocity (mm/s)

0.0011 5 108 km/h
Permanent strain

0.0010 ε 0p =0.0016; n =0.279 0

0.0009
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Channabasaveshwara Institute of Technology on 10/09/15. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

-5

0.0008
-10

0.0007
40 80 120 160 200 240 -15
(a) Confining pressure (kPa) 104 108 112 116 120 124
(a) Time (s)
0.0017
8

Experimental 360 km/h

Fitting curve 6
0.0016

Vibration velocity (mm/s)

Permanent strain

4
ε p0=0.0024; n =0.2 216 km/h
0.0015 2
108 km/h

0
0.0014
-2

0.0013 -4
40 80 120 160 200 240
(b) Confining pressure (kPa) -6
104 108 112 116 120 124
Fig. 7. Determination of parameters and n: (a) under waterless con- εp0 (b) Time (s)
ditions; (b) under saturated conditions
Fig. 9. Vibration velocities recorded at different train speeds: (a) track
slab; (b) surface layer of subgrade

15
Track slab
Dynamic stress (kPa)
Surface layer of subgrade
0 5 10 15 20 25
0
German Railway standard
Vibration velocity (mm/s)
Depth from subgrade surface (m)

10

-1

-2 Model test
5
v =108 km/h
v =216 km/h
-3 v =360 km/h

Wuhan-Guangzhou High-speed Railway

DK1294+060 0
-4 DK1294+045 0 100 200 300 400
Train speed (km/h)

Fig. 8. Dynamic stress distribution along depth Fig. 10. Relationship between train speed and vibration velocity

© ASCE 04015047-6 J. Perform. Constr. Facil.

J. Perform. Constr. Facil., 04015047

 1.5
Table 5. Coefficients of Variation of Calculated Parameters
v =108 km/h
Scenario p0 εp0 n φ
δð1Þ 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.1
Accumulative settlement (mm)

δð2Þ 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.15

1.0 δð3Þ 0.25 0.3 0.3 0.2

0.7
0.5
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Channabasaveshwara Institute of Technology on 10/09/15. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

(1)
0.6 δ

Probability density function

(2)
δ
0.5
(3)
δ
0.0
0 0.4
0 5 10 15 20 25
4
Cycle (10 ) 0.3

Fig. 11. Obtained accumulative settlement of subgrade from model test 0.2

0.1
the high-speed railway subgrade under waterless conditions can be
estimated by Eq. (7), and the calculated result is 1.8 mm. Fig. 11 0
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
shows the obtained accumulative settlement result from the model
test; the accumulative settlement of the subgrade approaches Accumulative settlement (mm)
1.4 mm and tends to be steady after 200,000 cycles, and the ulti-
Fig. 12. Probability density function of accumulative settlement
mate accumulative settlement of the subgrade reaches 1.8 mm.
Therefore, it is demonstrated that the computational model pro-
posed in this paper exhibits good performance in predicting the
accumulative settlement of high-speed railway subgrade under pf ¼ PðZ ≤ 0Þ
train loading.  Xn
 
p Li n pref þ pm
¼p 5− ε0 ≤0
i¼1
100 s þ mðpref þ pm Þ − ðqref þ qm Þ
Reliability Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis of ð11Þ
Accumulative Settlement

Probabilistic Model of Accumulative Settlement β ¼ −Φ−1 ðpf Þ ð12Þ

Based on the German Railway Standard (2008), the postsettlement
of high-speed railway subgrade induced by the train loading should
be less than 5 mm. Therefore, the calculated settlement is com-
pared with the resistance which is set to be 5 mm for reliability
analysis. In connection with Eq. (7), the limit state equation is ex-
pressed as
where Φ−1 ð·Þ = standard normal cumulative distribution func-
tion (CDF).
In this paper, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate the
probability of failure and the reliability index with a sample size of
400,000.

Z ¼ 5 − Sð∞Þ Quantification of Uncertainties

Xn
 In Eq. (7), the dynamic stress on the subgrade surface, p0 , and the
p Li n pref þ pm
¼ ε0 ¼0 ð10Þ material parameters εp0 , n, and φ are considered as random variables
i¼1
100 s þ mðp ref þ pm Þ − ðqref þ qm Þ following a normal distribution. Both the apparent cohesion of
coarse sand, c, and the variance of bulk density, γ, are small, so
they are assumed to be determined values. The COV of the internal
Then, the reliability index, β, and the probability of failure, pf , friction angle, φ, ranges from 0.1 to 0.2 (Phoon and Kulhawy
can be defined as 1999). Because there is little research on the COV of the material

Table 4. Dynamic Stress of Subgrade of Wuhan-Guangzhou High-Speed Railway

Maximum Minimum Upper confidence Upper confidence
Transition type value (kPa) value (kPa) limit of 95% (kPa) limit of 99% (kPa)
Bridge-subgrade transition 17.69 7.67 16.097 17.58
Culvert-culvert transition 15.84 1.98 11.40 12.99
Tunnel-tunnel transition 14.41 1.20 11.23 12.75

© ASCE 04015047-7 J. Perform. Constr. Facil.

J. Perform. Constr. Facil., 04015047

 1.0
the dynamic stress on the subgrade surface induced by train load-
Cumulative distribution function
ing by using field measurement data from the Wuhan-Guangzhou
(1) High-Speed Railway, China. The results obtained are shown in
0.8
δ Table 4. Based on statistics theory, the COV of the parameter p0
(2)
δ for the three investigated sections is 0.174, 0.3, and 0.295, respec-
(3) tively. Thus, the COV of the parameter p0 is deemed to range from
0.6 δ
0.15 to 0.3. In this study, the variance of these random variables is
divided into three scenarios as listed in Table 5. The variables δ ð1Þ ,
0.4 δ ð2Þ , and δ ð3Þ represent the coefficients of variation of the calculated
parameters in the proposed settlement analysis model for these
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Channabasaveshwara Institute of Technology on 10/09/15. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

three scenarios.
0.2

Probabilistic Representation of Accumulative

00.0
0 1
Accumulative settlement (mm)
Fig. 13. Cumulative distribution function of accumulative settlement
parameters εp0 and n, the COVs of these two parameters are as-
sumed to lie within a range of 0.1 to 0.3.
As for the COV of the parameter p0, the China Railway Siyuan
Survey and Design Group (2009) conducted statistical analysis of
Settlement
2 3 4 5 6
The probability density function (PDF) and the CDF of the accu-
mulative settlement under three scenarios for different COVs of the
corresponding parameters are illustrated in Figs. 12 and 13, respec-
tively. Because of the uncertainties inherent in the train loading and
the material parameters, the calculated accumulative settlement will
not be a constant value; it is the statistical characterization of the
accumulative settlement of the high-speed railway subgrade. With
the increase in the variance of the train loading and material param-
eters, the accumulative settlement of the high-speed railway
subgrade exhibits the property of scatterness.

8 8
(1) (1)
7 (2) 7 (2)

(3) (3)
6 6
Reliability index

Reliability index

5 5

4 4

3 3

2 2

1 1

14 16 18 20 22 24 26 0.0012 0.0015 0.0018 0.0021 0.0024

(a) μ (b) μ

8 8
(1) (1)

7 (2)
7 (2)

(3) (3)
6 6
Reliability index
Reliability index

5 5

4 4

3 3

2 2

1 1

0.20 0.24 0.28 0.32 0.36 25 30 35 40 45

(c) μ (d) μ

Fig. 14. Reliability index versus mean values of parameters: (a) p0 ; (b) εp0 ; (c) n; (d) φ

© ASCE 04015047-8 J. Perform. Constr. Facil.

J. Perform. Constr. Facil., 04015047

 Sensitivity Analysis of Accumulative Settlement
Effect of Mean Value of Parameter on Reliability Index
In the analysis of the effect of the mean value of one parameter on
the reliability index, the mean values of the other three parameters
remain unchanged. It is found from Fig. 14 that the reliability index
increases significantly when the mean value of the parameter φ in-
creases, while it decreases as the mean values of the parameters p0 ,
εp0 , and n increase. The mean value of the parameter εp0 has the most
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Channabasaveshwara Institute of Technology on 10/09/15. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
Effect of COV of Parameter on Reliability Index
When analyzing the effect of the COV of one parameter on the reli-
ability index, the COVs of the other three parameters remain un-
changed. It is seen from Fig. 15 that increase of the COV of the
parameter εp0 significantly reduces the reliability index. The growth
of the COVs of parameters p0 and φ reduce the reliability index more
than growth of the parameter n does. If the target reliability index is
assumed to be 3.5, the variance of the parameters should be con-
trolled within the degree of variance δ ð2Þ . It is clear that the variance
of the dynamic stress on the subgrade surface as well as the compact-

significant effect on the reliability index, and the mean values of the
parameters p0 and φ have more effect on the reliability index than
that of the parameter n.
The parameter p0 represents the dynamic stress on the sub-
grade surface, the parameter εp0 is directly related to the com-
pactness of the coarse sand, and the parameter φ reflects the
strength of the coarse sand. The statistical properties of the
dynamic stress on the subgrade surface as well as the compact-
ness and the strength of the roadbed filling have a significant
effect on the accumulative settlement of the high-speed railway
subgrade, and therefore the stochastic features of these parame-
ters should be rationally controlled in practical engineering
applications.
ness and the strength of the roadbed filling have a significant effect
on the accumulative settlement of the high-speed railway subgrade.
Effect of Water Level Variation on Reliability Index
Under the wetting-drying cycle caused by underwater level varia-
tion, the water content and the saturation level of the subgrade will
be changed, and it will increase the accumulative settlement of the
subgrade induced by the train loading (Chen et al. 2014b). In this
study, the effect of the water level on the reliability index is inves-
tigated under the previously mentioned three scenarios. It is seen
from Fig. 16 that a rise in the water level significantly decreases the
reliability index.

6.5 6.5
(1) (1)
6.0 6.0
(2) (2)

5.5 5.5 (3)

(3)

5.0 5.0
Reliability index
Reliability index

4.5 4.5

4.0 4.0

3.5 3.5

3.0 3.0

2.5 2.5

2.0 2.0
0.16 0.20 0.24 0.28 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30

(a) (b)

6.5 6.5
(1) (1)
6.0 6.0
(2) (2)

5.5 5.5 (3)

(3)

5.0 5.0
Reliability index
Reliability index

4.5 4.5

4.0 4.0

3.5 3.5

3.0 3.0

2.5 2.5

2.0 2.0
0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.21
(c) (d)

Fig. 15. Reliability index versus COVs of parameters: (a) p0 ; (b) εp0 ; (c) n; (d) φ

© ASCE 04015047-9 J. Perform. Constr. Facil.

J. Perform. Constr. Facil., 04015047


6 δ
5 δ
Reliability index
4 mation in railway track induced by high-speed traffic loading of the
3 mation of road on soft subsoil.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 10.1061/
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Channabasaveshwara Institute of Technology on 10/09/15. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
2 track-subgrade of high-speed railways.” J. Zhejiang Univ. Sci., 15(12),
1 “Cumulative settlement of track subgrade in high-speed railway under
0.0 0.4 0.8
Depth of water level from foundation surface (m)
Fig. 16. Reliability index versus water level
Conclusions
In this paper, an analytical model based on Gidel et al. (2001) con-
stitutive model has been developed to predict the accumulative set-
tlement of a high-speed railway subgrade considering the effect of
the initial stress state. The effectiveness of the proposed model in
predicting the accumulative settlement of high-speed railway sub-
grade induced by train loading is testified through full-scale model
experiments. A reliability-based model for probabilistic risk assess-
ment of the accumulative settlement is formulated by taking the
uncertainties and randomness of the relevant parameters into account.
A sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate the effect of the dom-
inant factors on the reliability index of the accumulative settlement.
The results obtained from this study show that (1) on the basis of
field measurement data from the Wuhan-Guangzhou High-Speed
Railway, China, the COV of the dynamic stress on the subgrade
surface has a range of 0.15–0.3; (2) in comparison with the results
of the full-scale model test, the computational model proposed in
this study exhibits good performance in predicting the accumula-
tive settlement of high-speed railway subgrade; and (3) the mean
value and the COV of the parameter εp0 has the most effect on the
reliability index; the mean values and the COVs of the parameters
p0 and φ have more effect on the reliability index than those of the
parameter n. In addition, increase in the water level significantly
decreases the reliability index.
Acknowledgments
The work described in this paper was jointly supported by the
National Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51225804,
U1234204, 51178418, and 51222803) and the research fund of
the China Railway Corporation (Grant No. 2014G006).
References
Abdelkrim, M., Bonnet, G., and de Buhan, P. (2003). “A computational
procedure for predicting the long term residual settlement of a platform
induced by repeated traffic loading.” Comput. Geotech., 30(6), 463–476.
Abdelkrim, M., de Buhan, P., and Bonnet, G. (2006). “A general method for
calculating the traffic load-induced residual settlement of a platform,
based on a structural analysis approach.” Soils Found., 46(4), 401–414.
© ASCE
J. Perform. Constr. Facil., 04015047
Alonso, E., and Krisek, R. J. (1973). “Application of random function
(1)
theory to settlement problems in soil engineering.” Ph.D. thesis, Dept.
(2) of Civil Engineering, Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL.
δ Andersen, K. H., Hansteen, O. E., and Hoeg, H. (1978). “Soil deformation
(3)
due to cyclic loads on offshore structures.” Norw. Geotech. Inst. Publ.,
120, 7–26.
Bian, X. C., Jiang, H. G., and Chen, Y. M. (2010). “Accumulative defor-
trains.” Earthquake Eng. Vib., 9(3), 319–326.
Chai, J. C., and Miura, N. (2002). “Traffic load induced permanent defor-
(ASCE)1090-0241(2002)128:11(907), 907–916.
Chen, R. P., Chen, J. M., and Wang, H. L. (2014a). “Recent research on the
1034–1038.
Chen, R. P., Chen, J. M., Zhao, X., Bian, X. C., and Chen, Y. M. (2014b).
varying water levels.” Int. J. Rail Transp., 2(4), 205–220.
Chen, Y. M., Chen, R. P., and Lu, S. (2002). “A few problems on soil me-
1.2 chanics of soft foundation during construction and operation of sub-
way.” Proc., Senior Forum on Subway Building and Environmental
Geotechnical Engineering, Zhejiang University Press, Hangzhou,
China, 165–177 (in Chinese).
China Railway Siyuan Survey and Design Group Co., Ltd. (2009).
“Research report on dynamic responses of ballastless tracks of test
sections.” Wuhan, China.
Fenton, G. A., and Griffiths, D. V. (2002). “Probabilistic foundation settle-
ment on spatially random soil.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 10.1061/
(ASCE)1090-0241(2002)128:5(381), 381–390.
German Railway Standard. (2008). “Erdbauwerke planen, bauen und in-
stand halten.” Ril 836, Berlin (in German).
Gidel, G., Hornych, P., and Chauvin, J. J. (2001). “A new approach for
investigating the permanent deformation behaviour of unbound
granular material using the repeated load triaxial apparatus.” Bulletin
des Laboratoires des Ponts et Chaussees, 233(4), 5–21.
Goh, A. T., Phoon, K. K., and Kulhawy, F. H. (2009). “Reliability analysis
of partial safety factor design method for cantilever retaining walls in
granular soils.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)GT
.1943-5606.0000061, 616–622.
Krizek, R. J., Corotis, R. B., and Ei-Moursi, H. H. (1977). “Probabilistic
analysis of predicted and measured settlements.” Can. Geotech. J.,
14(1), 17–33.
Li, D., and Selig, E. T. (1996). “Cumulative plastic deformation for
fine-grained subgrade soils.” J. Geotech. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)
0733-9410(1996)122:12(1006), 1006–1013.
Manning, L. J., Hall, J. W., and Kilsby, C. G. (2008). “Spatial analysis of
the reliability of transport networks subject to rainfall-induced land-
slides.” Hydrol. Processes, 22(17), 3349–3360.
Ministry of Railways of the People’s Republic of China. (2007). “Interim
design provisions for a new 300-350 km/h passenger dedicated
Railway.” Beijing, 32–33.
Ministry of Railways of the People’s Republic of China. (2009). “Code for
design of high speed railway.” Beijing.
Monismith, C. L., Ogawa, N., and Freeme, C. R. (1975). “Permanent
deformation characteristics of subsoil due to repeated loading.” Trans-
portation Research Record, 537, 1–17.
Paice, G. M., Griffiths, D. V., and Fenton, G. A. (1996). “Finite element
modeling of settlements on spatially random soils.” J. Geotech. Eng.
Div., 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9410(1996)122:9(777), 777–779.
Phoon, K. K., and Kulhawy, F. H. (1999). “Evaluation of geotechnical
property variability.” Can. Geotech. J., 36(4), 625–639.
Tohno, I., and Iwata, S. (1989). “Land subsidence caused by repeated
loading.” Proc., 12th Int. Conf. on Soil Mechanics and Foundation
Engineering, Elsevier, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 1819–1822.
Yang, G. Q., Zhao, X. M., and Cai, Y. (1998). “Analysis of several ques-
tions for express railway roadbed.” J. Shijiazhuang Railway Inst., 11(1),
56–60 (in Chinese).
Zhou, W. H., Chen, R. P., Zhao, L. S., Xu, Z. Z., and Chen, Y. M. (2012).
“A semi-analytical method for the analysis of pile-supported embank-
ments.” J. Zhejiang Univ. Sci., 13(11), 888–894.
04015047-10 J. Perform. Constr. Facil.