Name : Abdullah Reg Ne Baas Department: MSEE Subject : Advance Compudationnt Technique s Assignment Hoot ( Baye's Theor) Subwilied Te: Ds. Khusramn KieniBAyE'S Theorm Bage's Freorm named aftes 15% conteary by Batish —matematicean Thomas Bage’s . jt aa amalhematicel formula fo determining Corditionc probability. This Theorm provides a wig tr sewise existing predictions ov Theories Cupdede probebilites), Wer new ot additoncl evidence. Bey? Theorm is als Called es Jute ov Baye's Lesiod ts The foundation eof the field Bayosien statistics. ed Derivation af Beyer TMeormi— Let, the probability ef hue events A ond |b happens. PEAd = The prbability of event A accusing Pca = The probability of event B oceuring pale) = The pesboelaibity 4 A gven & pCB/A) = The pusbability of & given A pcane) 2 The pobabibity, of both A amd B ocessinl > The Prsboeboilaty of toe evel A od & ‘happen PLANG) is The prolonboility of A, PCO fines The,pobabi thy of 8 -ajien, Teal 4 A has occuvecd pg From conditiownl probability 5 (olay = PEANB) pew PO) Pcane) = pend: P(B/A) —_— » >» On The other hand the ply A and B is also equal fo the prclosbi 4 of B times the probadotlity of A jen & PUB) = PANE) Pied oh PCAND?, =r PLE Pohl) re) Equality uy and (2) We at PCB pCa) = PCAD pCla) Dividing beth sides by Pca Pe PLB) _ PLAY PCB) pes Pcp) PAB) = PCAD P(B/p) P(B)Genesallised form af Ba} . Rea wt n of @ Let B,,B,,B,-- Bn be & partibre plhat event A occurs; Semple Spue 5 Suppose, That bs He pobebility 4 event 8 ? by The efinction of Conditional probability we have P(Bjlny = PCAN) _ + ®) P(AD petals ple know that Tote! probability pm) PA) = 2 P(A/B,) PlBy) ———> % and P(AN Bj) = P(Ma;) PQ) ° Put equation Omd © in (3) we at Pgi/A) = PAD) _ PCAgi) PCE) PAD, 2 P(AB,) PCB.) 2 °Genetal Exam °f Bayes. dheowm,. Qe Given tie bags each one having wed and White balls. Bots bags have equal Chance of being chosen. $f a hall & picked at an and foard to be red. Whal ts The probe ” oy at the ball as Cheeson from bag A. A by bag B fe & 3 of wd hall pcp) Solution: Fest lo find foto Probability PR) = Pa) *PCA) + PRB) + p(B) 22 ps, Sy ae oo - jo * Be 34+65 Ro = -@ Probability at ved Lille was from bey A Plip)= DPA) Bre Kon = ioExampfe (Bina Communication System) —— eee gto Many Communication Systems carn be mechufe y &” Te following pay. fist The uses dnpils a Oovat into the sytem, and Q Cortese nolg Syne 4 Lrensmilled, Sond, The Aaiever makes a checiion abotl Liha! was te input to the Spdem, based 0”7 the sygnal WD reared, Siyppose Hat He usr sends Os wih Protacei tify i-p aud As wit probably fp, aud Suppose Thal the veaveers anakes Yarden chestion eros with probraloilify £. fr foo, let Ai be te event "input wes” aud het By be he event” Sern eerie pias i” find whith Ly és more probelole Given thet the seaeves Aes ou at Asume tat, @Q prion’, he inp a eps Liteely te be 0 ov 1. Sobution:— Let A, be the event Hat We smput Wes k ket, then A ad A, are a partition of the Sample Space of Jnput - oultppat pats lek by he He event “erewr outpat Ales 1.” Te Probability of B, is ’ PCB) = PCPA) PAL) + PCBIAL) PCANPay es. (ne)(4) “Ha i -¥ PO) = i Pophieg Bayors Beomm , we gt Pla) = PBIA) pA) , EG) 2 bk P(E) %, ' PMB) = E L Ale) = POBIM)PAD Cre ae) PB, Me PAB) = I-€ “Thus x € ts bess tan +) ten Lnput £ ys mere Wikely “than tnpat © When @ 4 is chtes net at es output ef Te channel ahs wpd de be Noor cutpd fer ed UP) pe Pe pu-€)