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Results Presentation
November 4, 2019
Forward Looking Statements 2
Certain statements and other information included in this document, including within “Outlook and Guidance” constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-
looking statements") under applicable securities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as "anticipate", “forecast”, "expect", "believe", "may", "will", "should", "estimate", "intend" or other
similar words). All statements in this document, other than those relating to historical information or current conditions, are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: Nutrien’s 2019 annual
guidance, including expectations regarding our adjusted net earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA (both consolidated and by segment); capital spending expectations for 2019; expectations regarding
performance of our operating segments in 2019; our market outlook for 2019 and 2020, including Agriculture and Retail and Crop Nutrient Markets and including anticipated supply and demand for our
products and services, expected market and industry conditions with respect to crop nutrient application rates, cash grower margins, planted acres, crop mix, prices and the impact of currency fluctuations and
import and export volumes; and expectations regarding completion of previously announced expansion projects (including timing and volumes of production associated therewith) and acquisitions and
divestitures (including expected results and timing of closing thereof). These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control,
which could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.
All of the forward-looking statements are qualified by the assumptions that are stated or inherent in such forward-looking statements, including the assumptions referred to below and elsewhere in this
document. Although Nutrien believes that these assumptions are reasonable, this list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the forward-looking statements and the reader should not place an
undue reliance on these assumptions and such forward-looking statements. The additional key assumptions that have been made include, among other things, assumptions with respect to Nutrien's ability to
successfully complete, integrate and realize the anticipated benefits of its already completed and future acquisitions, and that we will be able to implement our standards, controls, procedures and policies at
any acquired businesses to realize the expected synergies; that future business, regulatory and industry conditions will be within the parameters expected by Nutrien, including with respect to prices, margins,
demand, supply, product availability, supplier agreements, availability and cost of labor and interest, exchange and effective tax rates; the completion of our expansion projects on schedule, as planned and on
budget; assumptions with respect to global economic conditions and the accuracy of our market outlook expectations for 2019, 2020 and in the future (including as outlined under “Market Outlook” and “2019
Guidance” of our 2018 Annual Report); the adequacy of our cash generated from operations and our ability to access our credit facilities or capital markets for additional sources of financing; our ability to
identify suitable candidates for acquisitions and divestitures and negotiate acceptable terms; our ability to maintain investment grade ratings and achieve our performance targets; and the receipt, on time, of
all necessary permits, utilities and project approvals with respect to our expansion projects and that we will have the resources necessary to meet the projects’ approach.
Events or circumstances that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general global economic, market and business
conditions; failure to complete announced and future acquisitions or divestitures at all or on the expected terms and within the expected timeline; weather conditions, including impacts from regional flooding
and/or drought conditions; crop planted acreage, yield and prices; the supply and demand and price levels for our products; governmental and regulatory requirements and actions by governmental authorities,
including changes in government policy (including tariffs and trade restrictions), government ownership requirements, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and the interpretation thereof;
political risks, including civil unrest, actions by armed groups or conflict and malicious acts including terrorism; the occurrence of a major environmental or safety incident; innovation and security risks related
to our systems; regional natural gas supply restrictions; counterparty and sovereign risk; delays in completion of turnarounds at our major facilities; gas supply interruptions; any significant impairment of the
carrying value of certain assets; risks related to reputational loss; certain complications that may arise in our mining processes; the ability to attract, engage and retain skilled employees and strikes or other
forms of work stoppages; and other risk factors detailed from time to time in Nutrien reports filed with the Canadian securities regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States.
The purpose of our expected adjusted net earnings per share, adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA by segment guidance ranges are to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financial results,
and this information may not be appropriate for other purposes.
Nutrien disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this document as a result of new information or future events, except as may be required under applicable US
federal securities laws or applicable Canadian securities legislation.
November 4, 2019
Note: All dollar amounts are stated in US dollars throughout the presentation unless otherwise noted.
Third Quarter 2019 Results
November 4, 2019
Nutrien Q3 2019
4
Financial and Strategic Highlights
• Nutrien Q3’19 net earnings from continuing operations was $141 million ($0.241 per share). Third-quarter
adjusted net earnings was $0.24 per share and adjusted EBITDA was $785 million. Adjusted EBITDA
decreased 6 percent in Q3’19 compared to Q3’18.
• Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2019 was $3.3 billion representing an 11 percent increase
from the same period in 2018.
• Nutrien generated $2.0 billion ($3.44 per share), in free cash flow in the first nine months of 2019 up 28
percent from the same period in 2018.
• Nutrien successfully closed the acquisition of Ruralco Holdings Limited, the third largest agriculture
retailer in Australia. The acquisition and integration of Ruralco is expected to provide significant benefits
for all stakeholders and enhance the delivery of products and services to Australian farmers.
• Based on first-nine months results and outlook for the remainder of the year, we have lowered our 2019
adjusted net earnings and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $2.30 to $2.55 per share and $4.0 to $4.3
billion, respectively.
1. All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net earnings per share.
November 4, 2019
Nutrien Q3 2019 Adjusted EBITDA1 Comparison 5
• Adjusted EBITDA decreased due to a slowdown in global fertilizer demand and lower nitrogen and phosphate
prices.
• Retail EBITDA increased due to strong crop input demand, higher margin sales and greater share in key
markets.
• Potash adjusted EBITDA decreased due to a temporary slowdown in offshore demand and North America sales
volumes that were below the Q3’18 record.
• Nitrogen EBITDA decreased primarily due to lower net realized selling price for ammonia.
$839
$785
-14%
$498
+64% $430 -9%
$270 $247 -55%
$190
$116
$75 +3%
$34
$3,347
$3,012
+19%
+10%
+1%
$1,444
$1,212
$992 $1,000 $894 $980 -31%
+25%
$202 $140
1. All adjustments made to EBITDA are captured in Corporate and Others. November 4, 2019
Source: Nutrien
Retail: Q3 2019 Gross Margin Bridge 7
US$ Millions
$655
$533
November 4, 2019
Source: Nutrien
Potash: Q3 2019 Gross Margin Bridge 8
Offshore customers drew down inventory and North American volumes were
second only to record Q3 2018
US$ Millions
$459 $406
1. COGS variance does not include depreciation and amortization (D&A). November 4, 2019
Source: Nutrien
Potash: Lower Adjusted EBITDA Driven by Temporary
9
Weakness in Demand
-0.6 Mmt
3.9
3.3
Potash Adjusted EBITDA 2.2 Offshore
US$ Millions Sales Volumes 1.8
Million Tonnes 1.7 1.5 N. America
-14%
Q3’18 Q3’19
$498
$430 +3%
$212 $218
+11%
November 4, 2019
Source: Nutrien
Nitrogen: Q3 2019 Gross Margin Bridge 10
US$ Millions
-$7
$164
$133
1. COGS variance does not include depreciation and amortization (D&A). November 4, 2019
Source: Nutrien
Nitrogen: EBITDA Impacted by Lower Prices 11
-9%
94% 85%
Nitrogen EBITDA Ammonia
US$ Millions Operating Rate1
Percent
-9% Q3’18 Q3’19
$270
$247
-5%
$222 $211
Net Selling
Price
US$/MT
Q3’18 Q3’19
Ammonia +2%
Controllable Cash $44 $45
Cost of Product
Manufactured
US$/MT
Q3’18 Q3’19 Q3’18 Q3’19
November 4, 2019
1. Excludes Joffre and Trinidad.
Source: Nutrien
Phosphate: Q3 2019 Gross Margin Bridge 12
Global phosphate markets pressured by ample supply. Volumes were lower due to
strategic decision to convert Redwater phosphate plant to ammonium sulfate.
US$ Millions
$27
-$15
1. COGS variance does not include depreciation and amortization (D&A). November 4, 2019
Source: Nutrien
Returns to Shareholders Through Dividends and
13
Share Repurchases
$3,730
November 4, 2019
Source: Nutrien
Nutrien Ag Solutions Digital Platform 14
0%
Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19
DIGITAL PLATFORM VALUE CHAIN
BENEFITS to: PLAN PRE-PLANTING PLANT MONITOR & PROTECT HARVEST
1. Percent of Sales (product available for online purchase): North American Retail digital sales as a proportion of North American Retail sales that are available for purchase online. November 4, 2019
Percent of Retail Sales – (all product): North American Retail digital sales as a proportion of total North American Retail sales
Source: Nutrien
Nutrien Ag Solutions Digital Platform:
15
Current Functionality
✓ Notifications of new
statements, invoices and
licenses/permits
November 4, 2019
Source: Nutrien
Nutrien Ag Solutions Digital Platform:
16
Planned Additions for 2020
Nutrien Advisor
custom recommendations on
timing/level of applications
November 4, 2019
Source: Nutrien
Outlook and Guidance
November 4, 2019
Slow North American Harvest Progress 18
90 90 90
80 80 80
70 70 70
60 60 60
50 50 50
40 40 40
30 30 30
20 20 20
10 10 10
0 0 0
Sep 15/19 Oct 15/19 Nov 15/19 Sep 15/19 Oct 15/19 Nov 15/19 Sep 02/19 Sep 30/19 Oct 28/19
1. Five year average except for Manitoba, which is a three year average and included in Western Canada results November 4, 2019
Source: USDA, Alberta Agriculture & Forestry, Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, Manitoba Agriculture
US Corn & Soybean Supply/Demand is Tightening 19
Corn Soybeans
2,500 1,000
2,000 800
1,500 600
1,000 400
200
500
0
0
2019/20F 2019/20F
Note: 2019/20 supply scenarios based on range of consultant forecasts. 2019/20 demand scenarios based on September 2019 USDA WASDE
November 4, 2019
report.
Source: Soybean & Corn Advisor, Doane, Informa, USDA, Nutrien
Global Crop Price Trends 20
Crop prices are improving as the market gains clarity on US crop production
Key Crop Prices
US$/bushel (unless otherwise indicated)
Chicago Soybeans
5.00
Chicago Corn 9.50
4.50 9.00
4.00 8.50
3.50 8.00
3.00 7.50
1
Palm Oil (MYR/tonne) Mato Grosso Soybeans (BRL/sack )
2,300 85
2,200 80
2,100 75
2,000 70
1,900 65
1,800
60
1,700
55
1,600
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-11
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
1. Crop price index is calculated as a weighted average key crop prices (corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton and canola) weighted by the production volume of the individual November 4, 2019
crops; fertilizer price index is based on NOLA urea, Tampa DAP and Midwest Potash prices weighted by global nutrient consumption.
Source: Bloomberg, USDA, Fertilizer Week
Corn & Soybean Acreage 22
+5% +3%
+11%
94
90 89 90 90 89 87 89 91
85 84
77
+3%
44 41 43 45
2017 2018 2019 2020F 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2017 2018 2019 2020F
US Corn US Soybeans Brazil Corn Brazil Soybeans
1. Represents planted acreage in the US and harvested acreage in Brazil; for the US, represents the year the crop was planted, while for Brazil, represents the year the November 4, 2019
crop was harvested
Source: USDA, Informa, Nutrien
US Crop Input Expenditures 23
55
50
45 +6 to 7%
40
35
30
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F
15
10
0
16 17 18 19F 20F 16 17 18 19F 20F 16 17 18 19F 20F 16 17 18 19F 20F 16 17 18 19F 20F 16 17 18 19F 20F
shipments in the first prices driven by the soybean acreage soybean fundamentals potash application growing demand for
2020
half driven by the tightest global palm oil combined with entering 2020 and rates and consumption NPK fertilizers,
strong monsoon in stocks/use ratio since assumed normal lower potash inventory expected, however including in Africa, are
2019 and increased 1997/98 is expected to application weather to start the year relatively flat expected to boost
minimum support support improved supports a rebound in shipments following potash demand
prices for key crops demand shipments record highs in 2019
November 4, 2019
Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien
Expect Tightening Nitrogen Supply & Demand 25
70%
November 4, 2019
1 Based on estimated operational capability.
Source: CRU, Fertecon, Nutrien
Nutrien 2019 Annual Guidance 26
(a) All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net earnings per share.
(b) Potash and nitrogen sales tonnes include manufactured product only. Nitrogen sales tonnes exclude ESN® and Rainbow products.
November 4, 2019
(c) This is a non-IFRS financial measure. See “Appendix B – Non-IFRS Financial Measures” in Nutrien’s Q3 2019 news release.
Thank You!
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