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480 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO.

1, FEBRUARY 2010

Climate Change Impacts on Residential and


Commercial Loads in the Western U.S. Grid
Ning Lu, Senior Member, IEEE, Todd Taylor, Wei Jiang, Chunlian Jin, Member, IEEE, James Correia, Jr.,
L. Ruby Leung, and Pak Chung Wong

Abstract—This paper presents a multidisciplinary modeling TABLE I


approach to quickly quantify climate change impacts on energy SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR THE UNITED STATES ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
consumption, peak load, and load composition of residential and (http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epaxlfilees1.xls)
commercial buildings. This research focuses on addressing the
impact of temperature changes on the building cooling load in
ten major cities across the Western United States and Canada.
Our results have shown that by the mid-century, building yearly
energy consumption and peak load will increase in the Southwest.
Moreover, the peak load months will spread out to not only the
summer months but also spring and autumn months. The Pacific
Northwest will experience more hot days in the summer months.
The penetration levels of air-conditioning (a/c) systems in this
region are likely to increase significantly over the years. As a
result, some locations in the Pacific Northwest may be shifted from
winter peaking to summer peaking. Overall, the Western U.S. grid
may see more simultaneous peaks across the North and South in
summer months. Increased cooling load will result in a significant
increase in the motor load, which consumes more reactive power methodologies can be found in [2]–[5]. Among these method-
and requires stronger voltage support from the grid. This study ologies, creating hourly meteorological data based on global cli-
suggests an increasing need for the industry to implement new mate simulations, such as those archived for the Intergovern-
technology to increase the efficiency of temperature-sensitive mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and using them to
loads and apply proper protection and control to prevent possible drive an hourly building energy simulation program provides
adverse impacts of a/c motor loads.
a means to quantify climate change impacts on different pro-
Index Terms—Climate change, commercial load, fault-induced totyped buildings. A disadvantage of this methodology is that
delayed voltage recovery, load composition, load modeling, power the typical meteorological year (TMY) weather data used in the
system stability, residential load, temperature sensitivity. building energy simulation program need to be replaced not only
by climate model simulated temperature, but daily or hourly
data for wind, humidity, and cloud cover, which are often not
I. INTRODUCTION available from climate model outputs, must also be provided.
Although this approach may better capture the effects of storm

T HE residential and commercial sectors are responsible for


more than 70% of the U.S. electricity consumption, ac-
cording to an Energy Information Administration (EIA) Survey,
episodes and heat waves on building energy consumption, it is
too complex for our goal of studying the wide area impacts of
climate change on the power grid rather than building energy
as shown in Table I [1]. Temperature variations are the most uses and building codes. Therefore, a simplified approach based
influential climate factor that drives building energy consump- on sensitivity analysis, with a focus on temperature, is devel-
tion [2]. Although population and economic growth are the two oped in our study.
major factors driving overall electricity consumption, tempera- Our approach consists of developing a base case to charac-
ture changes impact the electricity demand on load shapes, load terize the impacts of climate change on energy demand at the
compositions, and peak load consumptions, especially for the building level for different building types at different geograph-
residential and commercial loads, which consist of a large per- ical locations across the Western U.S. power grid for periods
centage of temperature-sensitive loads. A number of research Now (1991–2000) and Future (2045–2054). Then, by adjusting
approaches have been used to estimate the impact of climate the inputs to the base case to account for new technologies and
change on building energy use. A good review of the different policies, the effectiveness of these techno-social factors can be
evaluated by comparing results between the new and base cases.
Manuscript received October 16, 2008; revised April 20, 2009. First pub- By cumulating the building level impacts on energy consump-
lished October 13, 2009; current version published January 20, 2010. This work tion peak load, and load composition to the feeder, city, and re-
was supported by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, operated for the
U.S. Department of Energy by Battelle, under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. gional levels, our analysis can give decision-makers information
Paper no. TPWRS-00810-2008. to plan new construction projects, upgrade old facilities, direct
The authors are with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, development of new technology, and implement new policies to
WA 99352 USA.
Color versions of one or more of the figures in this paper are available online
curb or mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change.
at http://ieeexplore.ieee.org. This paper is organized as follows. Our modeling framework
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TPWRS.2009.2030387 is introduced in Section II, and modeling results are discussed

0885-8950/$26.00 © 2009 IEEE


LU et al.: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL LOADS IN THE WESTERN U.S. GRID 481

As a first step, we focused on processing the results for


ten cities across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council
(WECC): Vancouver, Portland, Calgary, San Francisco, Salt
Lake, Sacramento, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Boulder, and
Billings. Marked in blue circles in Fig. 2, the ten cities cover
most of the major load centers in the Western U.S. power
grid and represent a variety of climate regimes, such as the
big contrast between the wet and mild maritime climate in the
coastal region, the continental climate in the interior Northwest,
and the semi-arid climate in the Southwest.

A. Climate Inputs
1) IPCC Climate Change Scenarios: A large number of
global climate simulations have been archived for IPCC 2007.
Fig. 1. Block diagram of the simulation inputs and outputs. These simulations are grouped by the greenhouse gas emission
scenarios that were used to drive the global climate models.
These scenarios fall into four families (A1, A2, B1, and B2)
that explore alternative development pathways (covering a wide
range of demographic, economic, and technological driving
forces and resulting greenhouse gas emissions). A detailed
description of these scenarios can be found in the IPCC Special
Report on Emission Scenarios [3]. We selected the mid-century
as the focus of this analysis. This choice is motivated by the
desire for climate change signals that are sufficiently large to
emerge from the noise (natural variability), while keeping our
analysis relevant for a future time horizon, when our under-
standing and modeling tools of the energy infrastructure still
apply. For the mid-century, different emission scenarios have
very little impact on the projected climate, so in the initial stage
of our research, the A1B scenario is selected to account for a
balance of emission across all sources.
The IPCC archive for the A1B scenario includes 26 sets of cli-
mate simulation outputs from 23 global climate models. To ad-
dress uncertainty, all available climate simulations are included
in our analysis, and each simulation is considered equally likely
in representing the climate system. For each simulation, daily
Fig. 2. Map of the geographical location of the 78 climate zones in the Western
time series of temperature are extracted for ten years each to
United States and Canada. represent Now (1991–2000) and Future (2045–2054). This re-
sults in 260 time series of daily maximum and daily minimum
surface temperatures each for Now and Future.
in Section III. Conclusions and future work are summarized in To do the regression-based daily analysis between TMY and
Section IV. climate data, the climate model data are bias corrected. The bias
correction methodology is as follows.
1) Create monthly means and standard deviations of and
II. MODELING STRUCTURE for both TMY and the individual climate models for
A flow chart describing the modeling framework is shown in the current climate.
Fig. 1. Using the IPCC (2007) climate change scenarios [6] as 2) Use the mean difference between TMY and individual
inputs, a building simulation software, DOE-2 [7], is used to climate models for Now, and TMY standard deviation to
quantify the building level energy consumption and peak load generate a probability density function (PDF) from which
changes and load composition shifts for 23 typical commercial random numbers would be drawn to serve as correction
and three residential building types with five vintages in 78 cities factors. These correction factors were then applied to
(the blue dots in Fig. 2) spread across the Western United States. climate model daily and for Now and saved.
3) Assume that if the climate forecast produces bias in Now,
The individual building loads are aggregated at the feeder then the same modeling bias will exist in Future forecasted
level based on different building mixes to simulate different values; the saved correction factors were then applied to the
types of distribution feeders. A power system simulation tool, future climate daily and .
GE Positive Sequence Load Flow Software (PSLF), is used Fig. 3 shows an example of the bias corrected climate model
to assess the impacts of climate change on power distribution temperature outputs for Now (red) and Future (blue). The tem-
system stability. perature trends are summarized from the 26 climate simulations
482 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010

• extreme events, such as cold/heat waves that last for days


or weeks.
Their corresponding impacts on the power grid are antici-
pated to be as follows.
• Long-term sustained temperature changes may affect con-
sumer behavior and lead to fundamental changes in the
system load. For example, an increased number of hot
summer days will increase the penetration of a/c loads and
therefore change both the magnitude and the composition
of the load.
• Temperature spikes are important to estimate the peak
loading condition of power systems. On a hot summer
day, at the distribution level, simultaneous peaking of the
cooling load may overload the distribution feeders and the
transformers. At the transmission level, this may result
in transmission system congestion. Moreover, the power
system reserve and stability margin will be significantly
reduced when electricity demand and the percentage of
motor loads such as a/c units, ventilation fans, and refrig-
eration equipment, increases significantly. Therefore, the
power grid will be prone to faults and move to an unstable
state when temperature spikes.
Fig. 3. Monthly T of the Portland area: Now (1991–2000) versus Future
• An extreme event, such as a heat wave or a cold front,
(2045–2054).
puts the power grid on heavy loading conditions for longer
durations than a temperature spike. Such events are more
for Portland, OR. Our analysis shows that the median of likely to cause power system overload, letting a vast area
will increase in all months in the future, with the biggest in- load to peak simultaneously and causing a system-wide
creases occurring in August through October. power shortage or widespread blackout.
The bias correction produces climate model monthly means In this paper, the impact of long-term sustained changes and
and standard deviations that agree much better with the TMY changes in short-term spikes are discussed in detail. We will
data (deviations are on the order of 1 to 2 for the means) for address the impacts of extreme events in later publications.
the current climate. Because the standard deviation derived from
the TMY data likely underestimates the observed variance, our B. Building Simulation Setup
bias correction may limit the extreme values compared to what There have been a number of studies of climate impacts on
can be found in the climate record. Despite this limitation, some U.S. residential and commercial building sectors. In [2], Huang
of the maxima and minima produced by this methodology are investigated the impacts of future climate change using four
quite extreme, although rare. For example, Portland does not IPCC climate change scenarios at three time periods for 20 U.S.
have record near 50 in August, but some models will locations. However, their study focused on the building energy
produce such values, as shown in Fig. 3. use rather than the power grid. This study uses a similar method
2) DOE-2 Weather Data: There are two primary sources to study the building level energy use, but focuses on the im-
of meteorological data used in the building energy simulation pacts of the end use change to the power distribution grid. Ag-
program DOE-2—historical data and typical weather year [4], gregating the building loads together by an estimated building
[5]. Historical data are measured or sometimes modeled data mix for the area studied, climate impacts on the power transmis-
for a particular location for a given period of record. Typical sion grid can be readily modeled.
years are ersatz years assembled to match the historical data The building simulation is done using DOE-2—an industry
using a particular statistical measure. The use of typical year standard building energy use and cost analysis tool. DOE-2 per-
data is preferred for study of building energy consumption and forms hourly simulations of the building energy use and pro-
peak load because they represent actual weather sequences. We duces yearly building load profiles for 23 commercial and three
used the typical meteorological year version 2 (TMY2) derived residential building types for 78 cities in the Western Electricity
from the SAMSON database by the National Renewable Energy Coordinating Council (WECC) system. The commercial and
Laboratory. residential building prototypes are from the Database for Energy
3) Characteristics of Climate Change: Among all the cli- Efficient Resources (DEER). Prototype characteristics are fully
mate factors, temperature is considered to be a major factor con- described in the 2004–2005 DEER Update Study Final Report.
tributing to the variation of electrical loads, because cooling and In this initial study, we focus on ten of the 78 cities. However,
heating loads may account for 90% of the total building energy the methodology is readily applicable to other climate zones and
consumption. Changes in temperature, depending upon the du- areas in the Western U.S. grid.
ration and magnitude, can be categorized as:
• long-term sustained changes; C. Power System Simulation Tool
• short-term spikes, defined as sharp increase of peak daily The power system simulation tool we used is GE Positive Se-
temperature that lasts for a few days; and quence Load Flow Software (PSLF). A test bed has been set up
LU et al.: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL LOADS IN THE WESTERN U.S. GRID 483

Fig. 4. Temperature sensitivity of the building peak load for Portland, Salt Lake Fig. 6. Influence of the type of day on the building peak load (Building vintage:
City, Phoenix, Boulder, Billings, Vancouver, and Calgary. post 2005).

Fig. 5. Temperature sensitivity of the building peak load for San Francisco, Fig. 7. Influence of building vintages on the building peak load.
Los Angeles, and Sacramento.

correlations are not well established, as evidenced by the


to simulate the impact of load change in terms of magnitude and larger scattering of the data points. Therefore, it is impor-
composition at a distribution feeder. WECC system-wide plan- tant to separate the California coastal areas when deriving
ning models available on the WECC website are used to obtain the sensitivity curves using temperature as the only mete-
a base case loading and generation condition for a system-wide orological input.
impact study. • Day types: Fig. 6 shows the temperature sensitivity of
building hourly energy consumption with respect to day
III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS types (i.e., weekday, weekend, and holiday). For most
commercial buildings, the energy consumption on week-
A. Building Temperature Sensitivity Study days is much higher than on weekends. For educational
The DOE-2 simulation yields hourly building energy con- buildings such as universities and schools, holidays also
sumption by end use for a whole year using a TMY weather result in a different sensitivity curve.
tape. From the 24 365 data points for each city, temperature • Vintages: Fig. 7 shows the influence of the five different
sensitivities for 26 building types, five building vintages, and building vintages. The results show that by using newer
two day types are derived. A few observations are noteworthy energy-saving technology for cooling/heating devices
from the simulation results. and using better insulation materials, the building energy
• Geographical location: Figs. 4 and 5 show that in general, spending can be greatly reduced to mitigate the impacts
for the seven inland cities, the peak hourly electricity usage brought on by the temperature increases.
correlates well with temperature. However, for the coastal • Load composition: Fig. 8 shows an example of the load
cities in California, because of the marine influence (e.g., composition temperature sensitivities for a weekday
cloudiness), the temperature-building energy consumption at hour 15. The cooling load increases significantly in
484 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010

mary and secondary schools), as well as small retail and


restaurants, have moderate a/c loads; therefore, they will
see a 5%–10% increase in their peak loads. Other com-
mercial buildings will see an increase lower than 5%. Note
that Building 22, which represents unconditioned storage
buildings, is not sensitive to temperature variations.
• Regarding the peak loads: Because we excluded the
gas-heating load, making the cooling related load the
major temperature sensitive load, the winter and au-
tumn/spring peak load increases are in general less than
10%, except in the Phoenix area. This shows that in
Phoenix, peak loading conditions may occur in spring and
autumn months. In Salt Lake City and Boulder, similar
trends have been observed; however, the peak load in-
crease is around 5%. The yearly total load consumption
confirmed that the three cities will see more energy de-
mand increases related to climate change by 2050.
Fig. 8. Temperature sensitivity of the cooling load composition in Portland, • Regarding the energy consumption: In most areas, during
Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Boulder, Billings, Vancouver, and Calgary.
July and August, the energy consumption increases signifi-
cantly. The total load increase is greater than 10% for most
building total load consumption. Our studies have shown buildings and for most of the seven cities studied. This
that the cooling load compositions are well correlated with shows that during these months, the Western grid is very
the temperature changes. likely to see simultaneous peaks all over the grid. In spring,
• Three-segment polynomial curve-fitting techniques have the Southwest will see more demand increase, while the
been used to derive the energy, peak-load, and load-compo- Pacific Northwest will only experience moderate increase
sition temperature sensitivity curves. Three second-degree in demand.
polynomials have been used to fit each segment. Three day • Because of the increase of warmer winter and spring days,
types are considered: weekday, weekend, and holidays. An the yearly total energy consumption for buildings may de-
example of the fitted curves (green lines) has been shown crease. In our simulation, cooling load is our major con-
in Figs. 6 and 8. cern, so for most of the buildings, the major heating load is
assumed to be provided by gas heating, except Buildings
B. Building Load Simulation Results Discussion 9, 12, and 16. Therefore, when counting the heating load
Using the temperature sensitivity curves, climate change im- reduction, the total energy consumed by the three building
pacts for Now and Future are studied by the method shown in types will actually decrease in all cities except Phoenix.
Fig. 1 for the 26 building types. The peak load and the energy • Regarding the load composition: As shown in Fig. 11, be-
consumption for all the 26 buildings (with the heating load ex- cause of the increased cooling load, the a/c motor load
cluded) are shown in Figs. 9 and 10. composition will increase 2% to 10% for commercial loads
The following specifics are noted. and 5% to 12% for residential loads for most areas across
• The simulation is done for the seven cities that show high the Western United States in the summer. Because in this
temperature correlations with building energy consump- simulation we did not account for the heating load (which,
tion, peak load, and load composition. The three locations in some areas, is electrical), the winter and spring load
in California are excluded because of the poor temperature compositions will not increase as dramatically. Fig. 12
correlation, as noted above. shows a box plot of the cooling load composition in Salt
• Buildings 1 to 23 are commercial buildings, and Buildings Lake City in August. The distribution of the data points
24 to 26 are residential buildings. The building names are suggests that, statistically, both the median and the ex-
listed in Fig. 9. tremes will be increased in the future.
• In most building models, the heating loads are assumed to
be gas-heating. We will address the heating load influence C. Power System Impact Study
in the future. From results of the building load study in Section III-B, a/c
• The building vintage used is “post 2005.” We assume that load compositions are going to be 2%–12% higher and the peak
the current technology will be adapted to the older build- load is going to be 5%–10% higher in the future for the ex-
ings in the future. isting building stocks. The impact of a higher penetration of
The results indicate the following. single-phase a/c motor load in the WECC power grid has been
• Regarding the load types: The temperature increases exert simulated using WECC base cases with PSLF. As shown in
a greater impact on the residential buildings than the com- Figs. 13 and 14, at higher a/c penetrations and higher feeder
mercial buildings. The mobile homes and the single-family loading levels, system voltages recover to their nominal levels
houses are by far the most temperature sensitive loads. On in tens of seconds instead of tens of cycles after a fault is cleared
average, the residential buildings will see more than a 10% (the faults are usually cleared in four cycles at the transmission
increase in their peak load. Among the commercial build- level). This is the so called fault-induced delayed voltage re-
ings, the assembly and educational buildings (such as pri- covery (FIDVR). Please refer to [9]–[12] for details.
LU et al.: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL LOADS IN THE WESTERN U.S. GRID 485

Fig. 9. Climate change impacts on the future peak load of the 26 building in Portland, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Boulder, Billings, Vancouver, and Calgary.

Fig. 10. Climate change impacts on the future yearly energy consumption of the 26 building in Portland, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Boulder, Billings, Vancouver,
and Calgary.

The sustained low voltages have been causing power quality operating case of 2004 given in PROMOD [13], we modeled
issues in Southern California Edison areas, where the a/c load the hourly loads for a future year. The loads in each load zone
compositions are reaching 40% to 60% for some residential were populated based on the representative city of the zone, as-
feeders, and also raising concerns of voltage collapse. Mean- suming a typical building mix obtained from load survey re-
while, the significant reduction in voltage stability margin can sults, as shown in Fig. 15. Note that the study can also quantify
lead to a similar chain of events. the system impact on transmission line congestions and extreme
Preliminary system level impact study results on electricity events such as heat waves and cold fronts, the detail of which
generation and emission are shown in Table II. Starting with an we will discuss in a separate paper.
486 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010

Fig. 11. Climate change impacts on the future cooling load composition of the 26 building in Portland, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Boulder, Billings, Vancouver,
and Calgary (Weekday, 3 p.m.).

Fig. 12. Box plot of Now (N) and Future (F) cooling load compositions of 26 building types in Salt Lake City in August (3 p.m.).

Fig. 13. Voltage profiles at a 115-kV bus when air conditioning load is between Fig. 14. Voltage profiles at a 115-kV bus at its full load and half load conditions
0% to 40%. when air conditioning load is 40%.

IV. CONCLUSION months. The Pacific Northwest (Portland, Vancouver, Calgary,


Using the IPCC A1B climate change scenarios and the and Billings) will experience more hot days in the summer
DOE-2 building energy simulation program, this study shows months. As a result, the penetration and use of a/c systems in
that by mid-century, building yearly energy consumption and the Pacific Northwest is likely to increase significantly over the
peak load will increase in the Southwest (Phoenix, Salt Lake years. Consequently, some locations that traditionally supply
City, and Boulder). Moreover, the peak load months will spread only a small fraction of cooling load in summer months may
out to not only the summer months but also spring and autumn shift from winter peaking to summer peaking because of the
LU et al.: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL LOADS IN THE WESTERN U.S. GRID 487

TABLE II [5] S. Parkpoom, G. P. Harrison, and J. W. Rialek, “Climate change im-


CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON ANNUAL ELECTRICITY pacts on electricity demand,” in Proc. 39th Universities Power Engi-
GENERATION IN THE WECC SYSTEM neering Conf., Bristol, U.K., Sep. 2004. [Online]. Available: http://
www.see.ed.ac.uk/~gph/publications/UPEC_Parkpoom_Final.pdf.
[6] IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Topic 1. [Online]. Available: http://
www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_topic1.pdf.
[7] Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and James J. Hirsch & Asso-
ciates, DOE-2.2 Building Energy Use and Cost Analysis Program Doc-
umentation, 2004. [Online]. Available: http://doe2.com/DOE2/index.
html.
[8] DOE-2 Weather Processor. [Online]. Available: http://gundog.lbl.gov/
dirun/2001weath.pdf.
[9] G. Chinn, “Modeling stalled induction motors,” in Proc. 2006
PES Transmission and Distribution Conf. Exhib., Dallas, TX, pp.
1325–1328.
[10] N. Lu, B. Yang, and Z. Huang, Evaluation of Southern California
Edison Air-Conditioner Stalling Solutions. Richland, WA: Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory, 2008, PNNL-17686.
[11] R. Bravo, R. Yinger, and L. Gaillac, Air Conditioner Stalling Unit Level
Solutions Test Report, TDBU, Engineering Advancement Power Sys-
tems Technologies, Southern California Edison, Rosemead, CA, 2006.
[12] N. Lu, B. Yang, Z. Huang, and R. Bravo, “The system impact of air-
conditioner under-voltage protection schemes,” in Proc. IEEE Power
System Conf. Expo. 2009, Seattle, WA, 2009.
[13] Ventyx Energy Planning & Analytics Software PROMOD IV. [Online].
Available: http://www.ventyx.com/analytics/promod.asp.
[14] Itron, Inc., California Commercial End-Use Survey, Publication #
CEC-400-2006-005, Mar. 2006. [Online]. Available: http://www.en-
Fig. 15. Typical building mix obtained from California End-Use Survey [14]. ergy.ca.gov/ceus/.

reduction of heating load and increase in cooling load. Overall,


the Western U.S. grid may see more simultaneous peaks across Ning Lu (M’98-SM’05) received the B.S.E.E. degree
the North and South in the summer months. from Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China,
Increased cooling load results in a significant increase in the in 1993 and the M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in electric
power engineering from Rensselaer Polytechnic In-
motor load, which consumes more reactive power and requires stitute, Troy, NY, in 1999 and 2002, respectively.
stronger voltage support from the grid. The study suggests an Her research interests are in modeling and ana-
increasing need for the industry to implement new technology lyzing power system load behaviors. Currently, she
is a Senior Research Engineer with the Energy and
to increase the efficiency of the temperature-sensitive loads and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National
apply proper protection and control to prevent the increasingly Laboratory, Richland, WA. She was with Shenyang
adverse impacts of a/c motor loads. Electric Power Survey and Design Institute from
Our future research will focus on the system level impact 1993 to 1998.
study of extreme events.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT Todd Taylor received the B.S. and M.Eng. degrees


in mechanical engineering from Texas A&M Univer-
The authors would like to thank Dr. Y. Xie, M. Paget, Dr. S. sity, College Station, in 1982 and 1986, respectively.
Unwin, and Dr. A. Sanfilippo with Pacific Northwest National He manages residential R&D in DOE’s Building
Laboratory, for providing us with many useful comments and Energy Codes Program at Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory, Richland, WA. He has 25 years of expe-
suggestions. rience analyzing building energy use and developing
building energy codes and code compliance software.
He is an expert in the computational aspects of large-
REFERENCES scale building energy simulation problems and in the
analysis of large datasets.
[1] Energy Information Administration, Net Generation by Energy Source
by Type of Producer. [Online]. Available: http://www.eia.doe.gov/
cneaf/electricity/epa/epat1p1.html.
[2] Y. J. Huang, The Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Use of
the US Residential and Commercial Building Sectors. Berkeley, CA: Wei Jiang received the B.S. and M.S. degrees in
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2006. HVAC engineering from Tianjin University, Tianjin,
[3] M. J. Scott and Y. J. Huang, Effects of Climate Change on Energy Use China, in 1999 and 2001, respectively, and the Ph.D.
in the United States in Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production degree in civil engineering from Drexel University,
and Use in the United States A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Philadelphia, PA, in 2005. Her research interests are
Science Program and the subcommittee on Global Change Research, in the modeling and analyzing of building energy
Washington, DC, 2007. systems to improve building energy efficiency and
[4] M. J. Scott, J. A. Dirks, and K. A. Cort, “The value of energy efficiency sustainability. Currently, she is an associate with
programs for US residential and commercial buildings in a warmer WSP Hong Kong Limited, Hong Kong. She was a
world,” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, vol. Research Engineer with Pacific Northwest National
13, no. 4, pp. 307–339, May 2008. Laboratory from January 2006 to July 2008.
488 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010

Chunlian Jin (M’06) received the B.S.E.E. degree L. Ruby Leung received the B.S. degree in physics
from Northwestern Polytechnic University, Xi’an, and statistics from the Chinese University of Hong
China, in 2000 and the M.S.E.E. degree from Ts- Kong in 1984 and the M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in
inghua University, Beijing, China, in 2003. She was atmospheric science from Texas A&M University,
pursuing the Ph.D. degree at the University of South College Station, in 1988 and 1991, respectively,
Carolina, Columbia, from 2003 to 2008. where she studied climate predictability using infor-
Her research interests include modeling and mation theory, energy balance models, and global
assessment of power system operations and control climate models.
performance, and integration of renewable resources. She is a Laboratory Fellow at the Pacific North-
Currently, she is a Research Engineer with the En- west National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA.
ergy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest Since she joined PNNL, her primary research focus
National Laboratory, Richland, WA. has been on regional climate modeling. She has led several multidisciplinary
projects to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change.

James Correia, Jr. received the Ph.D. degree in


agricultural meteorology from Iowa State University, Pak Chung Wong received the Ph.D. degree in com-
Ames, in 2007. puter science from the University of New Hampshire
His expertise is in regional climate and mesoscale in 1997.
numerical modeling. He is currently a Post Doctoral He is a Chief Scientist and Project Manager at the
Researcher at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland,
Richland, WA. WA. His recent research interests include visual and
information analytics that apply to electric power
grids and all other U.S. critical infrastructures.
Dr. Wong currently serves on the executive com-
mittee at IEEE VisWeek 2008 and the steering com-
mittee at the IEEE Symposium on Visual Analytics
Science and Technology (VAST) 2008.

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