Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
1, FEBRUARY 2010
A. Climate Inputs
1) IPCC Climate Change Scenarios: A large number of
global climate simulations have been archived for IPCC 2007.
Fig. 1. Block diagram of the simulation inputs and outputs. These simulations are grouped by the greenhouse gas emission
scenarios that were used to drive the global climate models.
These scenarios fall into four families (A1, A2, B1, and B2)
that explore alternative development pathways (covering a wide
range of demographic, economic, and technological driving
forces and resulting greenhouse gas emissions). A detailed
description of these scenarios can be found in the IPCC Special
Report on Emission Scenarios [3]. We selected the mid-century
as the focus of this analysis. This choice is motivated by the
desire for climate change signals that are sufficiently large to
emerge from the noise (natural variability), while keeping our
analysis relevant for a future time horizon, when our under-
standing and modeling tools of the energy infrastructure still
apply. For the mid-century, different emission scenarios have
very little impact on the projected climate, so in the initial stage
of our research, the A1B scenario is selected to account for a
balance of emission across all sources.
The IPCC archive for the A1B scenario includes 26 sets of cli-
mate simulation outputs from 23 global climate models. To ad-
dress uncertainty, all available climate simulations are included
in our analysis, and each simulation is considered equally likely
in representing the climate system. For each simulation, daily
Fig. 2. Map of the geographical location of the 78 climate zones in the Western
time series of temperature are extracted for ten years each to
United States and Canada. represent Now (1991–2000) and Future (2045–2054). This re-
sults in 260 time series of daily maximum and daily minimum
surface temperatures each for Now and Future.
in Section III. Conclusions and future work are summarized in To do the regression-based daily analysis between TMY and
Section IV. climate data, the climate model data are bias corrected. The bias
correction methodology is as follows.
1) Create monthly means and standard deviations of and
II. MODELING STRUCTURE for both TMY and the individual climate models for
A flow chart describing the modeling framework is shown in the current climate.
Fig. 1. Using the IPCC (2007) climate change scenarios [6] as 2) Use the mean difference between TMY and individual
inputs, a building simulation software, DOE-2 [7], is used to climate models for Now, and TMY standard deviation to
quantify the building level energy consumption and peak load generate a probability density function (PDF) from which
changes and load composition shifts for 23 typical commercial random numbers would be drawn to serve as correction
and three residential building types with five vintages in 78 cities factors. These correction factors were then applied to
(the blue dots in Fig. 2) spread across the Western United States. climate model daily and for Now and saved.
3) Assume that if the climate forecast produces bias in Now,
The individual building loads are aggregated at the feeder then the same modeling bias will exist in Future forecasted
level based on different building mixes to simulate different values; the saved correction factors were then applied to the
types of distribution feeders. A power system simulation tool, future climate daily and .
GE Positive Sequence Load Flow Software (PSLF), is used Fig. 3 shows an example of the bias corrected climate model
to assess the impacts of climate change on power distribution temperature outputs for Now (red) and Future (blue). The tem-
system stability. perature trends are summarized from the 26 climate simulations
482 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010
Fig. 4. Temperature sensitivity of the building peak load for Portland, Salt Lake Fig. 6. Influence of the type of day on the building peak load (Building vintage:
City, Phoenix, Boulder, Billings, Vancouver, and Calgary. post 2005).
Fig. 5. Temperature sensitivity of the building peak load for San Francisco, Fig. 7. Influence of building vintages on the building peak load.
Los Angeles, and Sacramento.
Fig. 9. Climate change impacts on the future peak load of the 26 building in Portland, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Boulder, Billings, Vancouver, and Calgary.
Fig. 10. Climate change impacts on the future yearly energy consumption of the 26 building in Portland, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Boulder, Billings, Vancouver,
and Calgary.
The sustained low voltages have been causing power quality operating case of 2004 given in PROMOD [13], we modeled
issues in Southern California Edison areas, where the a/c load the hourly loads for a future year. The loads in each load zone
compositions are reaching 40% to 60% for some residential were populated based on the representative city of the zone, as-
feeders, and also raising concerns of voltage collapse. Mean- suming a typical building mix obtained from load survey re-
while, the significant reduction in voltage stability margin can sults, as shown in Fig. 15. Note that the study can also quantify
lead to a similar chain of events. the system impact on transmission line congestions and extreme
Preliminary system level impact study results on electricity events such as heat waves and cold fronts, the detail of which
generation and emission are shown in Table II. Starting with an we will discuss in a separate paper.
486 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 25, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2010
Fig. 11. Climate change impacts on the future cooling load composition of the 26 building in Portland, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Boulder, Billings, Vancouver,
and Calgary (Weekday, 3 p.m.).
Fig. 12. Box plot of Now (N) and Future (F) cooling load compositions of 26 building types in Salt Lake City in August (3 p.m.).
Fig. 13. Voltage profiles at a 115-kV bus when air conditioning load is between Fig. 14. Voltage profiles at a 115-kV bus at its full load and half load conditions
0% to 40%. when air conditioning load is 40%.
Chunlian Jin (M’06) received the B.S.E.E. degree L. Ruby Leung received the B.S. degree in physics
from Northwestern Polytechnic University, Xi’an, and statistics from the Chinese University of Hong
China, in 2000 and the M.S.E.E. degree from Ts- Kong in 1984 and the M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in
inghua University, Beijing, China, in 2003. She was atmospheric science from Texas A&M University,
pursuing the Ph.D. degree at the University of South College Station, in 1988 and 1991, respectively,
Carolina, Columbia, from 2003 to 2008. where she studied climate predictability using infor-
Her research interests include modeling and mation theory, energy balance models, and global
assessment of power system operations and control climate models.
performance, and integration of renewable resources. She is a Laboratory Fellow at the Pacific North-
Currently, she is a Research Engineer with the En- west National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA.
ergy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest Since she joined PNNL, her primary research focus
National Laboratory, Richland, WA. has been on regional climate modeling. She has led several multidisciplinary
projects to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change.