February primaries will narrow the field

US presidential election 2020

A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit
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FEBRUARY PRIMARIES WILL NARROW THE FIELD
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2020

US 2020 election:
February primaries will narrow the field
T he first Democratic primary is just over two weeks away, on February 3rd, in the key swing state of
Iowa. The field remains unusually crowded. The two leading candidates, former vice-president Joe
Biden and Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, maintain strong support bases, but have struggled to build
momentum in recent months. Several other candidates, most notably Massachusetts senator Elizabeth
Warren and South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, are nipping at their heels, but have yet to overtake them
in national polling averages. This means that the early primaries—to be held between February 3rd-
29th in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina—will be critical for candidates to build
real momentum.

A race like no other

Nationwide polling averages collected by RealClearPolitics—which aggregate a variety of Democratic
and non-partisan polls—show the scale of the challenges that Democratic candidates face at the start
of primary season. Mr Biden and Mr Sanders find themselves in almost exactly the same position they
were in one year ago. In RealClearPolitics’s aggregate national polling, Mr Biden’s favourability rating
spiked from around 29% to just over 40% in early May 2019, in the weeks following the announcement
of his campaign. However, his first debate performances raised questions around his ability to connect
with voters on current issues. His favourability rating sank back down to around 29% in July, and it has
held steady there ever since.
Mr Sanders finds himself in a similar position. His favourability rating rose from around 17% to 24%
in the weeks following the announcement of his decision to stand, in February 2019, only to sink back
down to 17% at the start of May. His polling average has since ranged within a tight band of 14%-20%.

Favourability ratings of 2020 Democratic candidates

(% of survey respondents who support each candidate; RealClearPolitics aggregate of national surveys of
likely and registered voters)
Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Pete Buttigieg
50.0 50.0

40.0 40.0

30.0 30.0

20.0 20.0

10.0 10.0

0.0 0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2019 20
Source: RealClearPolitics.

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FEBRUARY PRIMARIES WILL NARROW THE FIELD
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2020

At the time writing on January 7th, on average Mr Biden held a lead of just 9.5 points over the rest of
the Democratic field—which is narrow compared with the 13-point lead held by the current president,
Donald Trump, at the same point in the 2016 Republican primary. The Democratic nomination is still
up for grabs. This race will be decided at the state level, as the early primaries offer candidates game-
changing media attention, donations and endorsements.

Time to think local

The early primaries will be a test of two main things: policy platforms and candidates’ electability (ie,
their ability to defeat Mr Trump).
On policy issues, candidates have significantly raised the stakes compared with 2016. Collectively,
they have proposed trillions of dollars in ambitious spending plans over the next ten years. Mr Biden
and Mr Buttigieg’s plans—worth US$4.1trn and US$5.5trn respectively—propose centrist approaches,
offering two-tier healthcare systems and plans to boost renewable energy usage. Mr Sanders,
conversely, has outlined more than US$50trn in spending—to be partially balanced out by tax
changes—with a more progressive approach to abolish private healthcare and push forward the
Green New Deal. The February primaries will offer an early sign of how these more progressive
policies will be received in swing states, which will influence the rest of the campaign.
Beyond policies, the 2020 Democratic primary will be decided on the candidates’ electability. In
order to defeat Mr Trump, who has a rock-solid support base of around 40% of voters, the eventual
Democratic nominee must be able to generate strong voter turnout, and appeal to those voters who
supported Mr Trump in 2016 but have since moved away from him. Suburban areas will be particularly
important in the 2020 election; Democratic candidates won a number of seats back from Republicans
in the 2018 midterms, as well as a raft of local elections in 2018 and 2019, often thanks to vote-switching
in suburban areas.

2 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020

FEBRUARY PRIMARIES WILL NARROW THE FIELD
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2020

2020 Democratic endorsements

(As of Janury 7th 2020)

Joe Biden 184

Elizabeth Warren 71

Cory Booker 60

Amy Klobuchar 50

Bernie Sanders 48

Pete Buttigieg 27

Michael Bennet 12

Michael Bloomberg 11

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200

Source: FiveThirtyEight.

Endorsements in 2000-16 presidential elections

(Endorsement totals at the same point in previous elections for candidates who went on to secure their
party's nomination)

George W Bush (2000) 523

Hillary Clinton (2016) 453

Al Gore (2000) 355

Mitt Romney (2012) 121

McCain (2008) 99

Barack Obama (2008) 64

Donald Trump (2016) 46

John Kerry (2004) 20

0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Source: FiveThirtyEight.
Note: Candidates' totals are calculated by point values to endorsements, depending on the seniority of the figure. Ten points are assigned to an
endorsement from former presidents, vice presidents and current national party leaders, eight points for governors, six for US senators, five for
former presidential nominees or 2020 candidates who have dropped out, and smaller amounts for US Representatives and lower-level figures.

Iowa
As of January 7th, the race is extremely close in Iowa—which is the first state to vote and a true swing
state, giving it outsized influence on the primaries that follow. The top three candidates there, Mr Biden
(22%), Mr Sanders (20.4%) and Mr Buttigieg (18.9%), have been within roughly two points of one
another for several weeks now.
Mr Buttigieg is a serious contender in Iowa. He led the field there between mid-November and
end-December, only slipping behind Mr Biden in early January. Mr Buttigieg continues to trail 20 points
behind Mr Biden in the RealClearPolitics nationwide polling averages. If he performs well in Iowa, this

3 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020

FEBRUARY PRIMARIES WILL NARROW THE FIELD
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2020

would lend him essential credibility—not to mention media airtime and potential funding—that could
help to compensate for his relatively young age (37), and lack of experience on the national stage.
What to look for: A win here could make Mr Buttigieg a more serious contender for
the nomination.

New Hampshire
In New Hampshire, Mr Biden and Mr Sanders are tied with one another, at 21% as of January 7th,
with Ms Warren (14.7%) and Mr Buttigieg (13.3%) trailing them, neck and neck. After the votes in Iowa
and New Hampshire, by mid-February it will be clearer how Democratic voters are responding to
progressive policy ideas compared with more centrist ones.
More importantly, the candidates’ performance in Iowa and New Hampshire should encourage
more endorsements to flow, which could allow for a breakout candidate. Pollster FiveThirtyEight has
created a system to measure endorsements, with a series of points awarded according to the seniority
of the official giving their endorsement. By this measurement, Mr Biden is well ahead of the pack, with
184 points-worth of endorsements—including five senators and three governors. Ms Warren trails him
with 71 points, followed by Mr Sanders with 48, and Mr Buttigieg with 27.
What to look for: Endorsements are likely to multiply after New Hampshire. This could clinch the
nomination for Mr Biden, or allow another candidate to speed past him.

Nevada
The current polling in Nevada mirrors that seen at the national stage in the RealClearPolitics
aggregates. Mr Biden is firmly in the lead, with 28% of the vote, followed by Mr Sanders with 21%,
Ms Warren with 15% and Mr Buttigieg with 6%. A Biden victory looks fairly comfortable here, which
could offer the front-runner yet more support in terms of endorsements and fundraising. Most
importantly, Nevada will be the first state with a significant Hispanic population to vote, offering an
early sign of how candidates could perform elsewhere.
What to look for: Nevada is the first state with a significant Hispanic population to vote, and will
act as an important bellwether.

South Carolina
South Carolina is essentially decided in Mr Biden’s favour. As of January 7th, he led polling among
probable primary voters with 38.7%. Mr Sanders followed with 14%, Ms Warren with nearly 10% and
Mr Buttigieg with 5%. South Carolina voted firmly in support for Mr Trump in 2016, so voting behaviour
in suburban areas could help to indicate if these crucial areas are switching over to Democratic
candidates.
What to look for: South Carolina will be the first state with a significant African American
population to vote, another crucial bellwether. Voting patterns in suburban areas could also show
which way the state will lean in the November presidential election.
Overall, Mr Biden is in the best position heading into the February primaries, where he is likely to
pick up between 50-100 delegates. This may not seem like much—candidates must win a majority
of the 3,979 pledged convention delegates (1,990+) in order to secure the nomination. But early
momentum will be critical for candidates to win the big-delegate states that will vote in March—Texas

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FEBRUARY PRIMARIES WILL NARROW THE FIELD
US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2020

(228 delegates), Florida (219) and California (419)—and in April—Pennsylvania (186) and New York (273).
By the end of February, The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the Democratic field to have officially
narrowed to three or four candidates, as we have discussed here. This sets the candidates up for a
bruising—and probably decisive—Super Tuesday on March 3rd.

Early voting states: Key takeaways

(Polling data as at January 7th 2020)
State Number of convention Current polls 2016 presidential election vote
delegates at stake
Iowa 41 Too close to call Democrat (D) 41.7% 51.2% Republican (R)

February 3rd

New Hampshire 24 Too close to call D 47% 46.6% R

February 11th

D 47.9% 45.5% R
Nevada 36 Likely Biden (7+ points)
February 22nd

D 40.7% 54.9% R
South Carolina 54 Firmly Biden (24+
February 29th points)

Source: FiveThirtyEight.

5 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020

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