Predicting Threats

Virtually all hospitals and health systems rely on procedure demand forecasts to guide service
line planning. However, many organizations lack visibility into to the impact of looming market
“shocks”—including things like new bundled payments and the rise of virtual care models—on their
ability to win share. This infographic identifies the most pressing market shocks to each service line
and provides proactive guidance on how to keep you service lines one step ahead of these threats.

to Service Line Growth Key to Market Shock Impact

Low Moderate High Very High
Five Shocks That Can Impact Your Market,
and How to Prepare for Them

General Women’s
Cardiovascular Neurosciences Orthopedics Oncology
Surgery Services

Innovative
Payment
Models
1
Increased
Consumerism
2
Rise of
Virtual Care
3
New Clinical
Affiliations
4
New
Ambulatory
Competition
5

Anticipated Innovative Rise of Innovative Innovative Innovative Increased

Threats Payment Models 1 Virtual Care
Providers risk exclusion from
narrow networks based on
episodic cost profile for heart
failure, PCI, and CABG.
What To Do
Target strategic partnerships
with post-acute care providers
to improve episodic cost
performance.
3 Payment Models
Expanding tele-stroke Providers who fail to manage
networks will disrupt cost and quality for joint
existing, informal referral replacements risk reduced
relationships across larger reimbursement from
geographic markets. Medicare penalties.
What To Do What To Do
Assess regional tele- Target strategic partnerships
neurology opportunities with post-acute care
and strengthen existing providers to improve
partnerships to maintain discharge planning and
and expand program reach. episodic cost management.
1 Payment Models
Purchasers will steer
to providers with
price-competitive,
demonstrably high-quality
care for GI procedures
(colonoscopy, bariatrics).
What To Do
Evaluate cost and
quality performance,
and communicate value
proposition to purchasers
to effectively manage price
competition.
1 Payment Models 1 Consumerism
Payers increasingly prioritize
centers of excellence
for network inclusion for
advanced sub-specialty care
(e.g., late stage colorectal,
and head and neck tumors).
What To Do
Assess cost and quality
competitiveness for episodes
of care around key tumor
sites, and consider need
for advanced program
designation.
2
Providers focused on
maternity services will risk
continuous market share
loss as consumers opt for
programs with women’s-
specific specialization across
heart, digestive health, and
urogynecology.
What To Do
Evaluate strength and clarity
of women’s services brand
and value to new consumers
through marketing.

New Clinical New Clinical Increased Increased New Clinical Rise of

Affiliations 4 Affiliations
Regional clinical affiliations
threaten local market share
losses for high-margin,
traditional cardiac services
(e.g., CABG).
What To Do
Evaluate which local
providers are entertaining
clinical partnerships; assess
what portion of market share
is at risk.
4 Consumerism
New clinical affiliations
may drive outmigration of
core neurology business
alongside complex cases.
What To Do
Evaluate competitor
partnerships and offerings;
consider developing
subspecialty clinics to
differentiate program and
protect market share.
2 Consumerism
Providers risk losing market
share due to inability to
communicate market value
proposition (access, price,
and service excellence).
What To Do
Emphasize access and service
excellence (e.g., time to first
appointment) in direct-to-
consumer marketing.
2 Affiliations
Consumers will prioritize
care sites offering highly
accessible alternatives
to HOPDs for low-acuity
surgery and endoscopy,
including ambulatory sites
and virtual post-op follow up.
What To Do
Benchmark accessibility
for routine and specialized
GI services against local
competitors and assess
need to shift cases to
ambulatory setting.
4 Virtual Care
Competitor affiliations with
academic partners drives
outmigration of commercial
pay patients and skews local
provider case mix.
What To Do
Evaluate which local providers
are entertaining clinical
partnerships and around
which tumor sites; assess
what portion of market share
is at risk.
3
New competitors offering
on-demand access to wide
range of services (primary
care, wellness, behavioral
health, and midlife services)
for women will disrupt ability
to retain patients over time.
What To Do
Evaluate opportunities for
enhancing patent service
through on-demand care
via tele-health or enhanced
appointment hours.

New Ambulatory
Competition 5
New urgent care competition
capturing patients upstream
of specialty referral.

What To Do
Evaluate opportunity for
increasing access through
on‑demand ambulatory
offerings (e.g., orthopedic
urgent care clinics, sports
performance services).

Download our market trend reports for more detail

Service Line Strategy Advisor on the threats to your core service lines
advisory.com/slsa/markettrends
©2015 The Advisory Board Company • advisory.com • 31846