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Calculations

Step 1 Score Predictor sheet based on data from 2016-2019 Reddit Surveys - u/BigDaddyAorta (with acknowledgements to those who cond

Goal: Formula- 95% CI


Date based 95% CI Upper R2
Test * Score ** Goals Completed *** Data year Prediction Std. Dev. Lower Limit Limit weighted
Free 120 % 2016 213.64 3.80 206.18 221.09 212.99
Kaplan % 2017 194.47 3.26 188.09 200.86 194.47
NBME 12 2018 217.44 9.71 198.41 236.48 216.33
NBME 13 153 1/11/2020 2019 219.30 5.54 208.44 230.16 217.59
NBME 15 157 1/28/2020 AVERAGE 211.21 5.58 200.28 222.15 210.35
NBME 16 16200% 2/6/2020
NBME 17 Study period
NBME 18 Start End Days
NBME 19 1
NBME 20
NBME 21
NBME 22
NBME 23
NBME 24
Rx %
UWSA1
UWSA2
Uworld %

* Use percentages for Free 120, Rx, Uworld, Kaplan (e.g. 80% enter as 80)
** LEAVE FIELD BLANK IF YOU DON’T HAVE A SCORE/DATE; only enter data into red boxes with blue background
*** Ensure your date of test completed is within the Study Period window; otherwise this will cause erroneous calculations. Can leave blank; will then not be included in date-adju

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Calculations

Summary: Predictions based on yearly survey results are in fields H4:H7, with an average calculated in H8. Predictions have remained mostly stable
R2 values were used as weighting to correct the prediction, but has minimal effect (result in L8). The 2018 data also have calculations based on NBME
UWSA Ave, and UWSA+NBME Ave and associated R2 values (formulas from u/SchoolinMedSchool). These were calculated separately and is availab
a comparison. The "goals" fields are merely for your own tracking of results and motivation (you can play with numbers to get an idea of how to get to
goal score by looking at the averages of the first set of calculations below the line [results in fields H32:H49] when you put in sample scores abov
[C4:C21]). Note that Date-adjusted method does not utilize R2.

DO NOT ENTER OR CHANGE ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE - THESE ARE USED FOR CALCULATIONS
Relevant R2 values for this person
Equations Test 2016 data 2017 data 2018 data *2019 Data Average Day of study 2016 data 2017 data*
Free 120 - - - - - - - -
Kaplan % - - - - - - -
NBME 12 - - - - - - -
NBME 13 209.31 197.84 228.39 225.912227 215.36 43842 0.5429 1
NBME 15 216.46 194.24 214.08 219.625594 211.10 43859 0.3559 1
NBME 16 215.14 191.34 209.86 212.351622 207.17 43868 0.3561 1
NBME 17 - - - - - - - -
NBME 18 - - - - - - - -
NBME 19 - - - - - - -
NBME 20 - - - - -
NBME 21 - - - -
NBME 22 - - - -
NBME 23 - - - -
NBME 24 - - - -
Rx % - - - - - - -
UWSA1 - - - - - - - -
UWSA2 - - - - - - - -
Uworld % - - - - - - - -
Ave 213.64 194.47 217.44 219.30 211.21 131569 1.2549 3
*Not avail.
Needs updated formula No Data
* linear formulas used for some as polynomial formulas generated incompatible numbers

R2 values across all data sets [DO NOT CHANGE] calcs for sumproducts
2016 2017 * 2018 2019 Test 2016 data 2017 data 2018 data * 2019 data

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Calculations

Free 120 0.2457 1 0.4726 0.567250008 Free 120 - - - -


Kaplan % 0.2225 - 0.3612 Kaplan % - - - -
NBME 12 0.5499 - - NBME 12 - - - -
NBME 13 0.5429 1 0.4054 0.305062726 NBME 13 9176630.40 8673729.78 ### ###
NBME 15 0.3559 1 0.433 0.452310696 NBME 15 9493798.09 8519185.32 9389334.72 ###
NBME 16 0.3561 1 0.605 0.659904413 NBME 16 9437708.88 8393760.15 9206138.48 ###
NBME 17 0.4132 1 0.567 0.412663847 NBME 17 - - - -
NBME 18 0.4404 1 0.5831 0.589183589 NBME 18 - - - -
NBME 19 - 1 0.5368 0.187283463 NBME 19 - - - -
NBME 20 0.555109436 NBME 20 - -
NBME 21 0.563253351 NBME 21 - -
NBME 22 0.618369689 NBME 22 - -
NBME 23 0.620349528 NBME 23 - -
NBME 24 0.581974279 NBME 24 - -
Rx % 0.0452 - 0.302 Rx % - - - -
Bold = R2
UWSA1 0.3805 1 0.5247 0.619111145 UWSA1 - - - -
from
UWSA2 0.4178 1 0.6126
corrected 0.680817288 UWSA2 - - - -
Uworld % 0.4956 - 0.457
polynomial 0.655716414 Uworld % - - - -
data sum ### 25586675.24 ### ###
* R2 correlation not avail. for 2017 data

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Calculations

gements to those who conducted and analyzed surveys)


Date-
adjusted
only Date × R2
(u/XXXmothe Correctio
rboyXXX) n Other calculations from u/SchoolinMedSchool:
213.64 212.99 NBME Ave: R2=0.6842
194.47 194.47 y=0.6361x + 98.626
217.44 216.33 198.71
219.30 217.59
211.21 210.35 UWSA Ave: R2=0.626
y=0.0047x2-1.54377x+340.86
#DIV/0!

Ave of the above 2

#DIV/0!

UWSA+NBME Predicted R2 of 0.714 (u/SchoolinMedSchool)


#DIV/0!

ll then not be included in date-adjusted calculation.

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Calculations

have remained mostly stable. The


e calculations based on NBME Ave,
lated separately and is available as
to get an idea of how to get to your
ou put in sample scores above

values for this person Weighted sum by R2


2018 data 2019 data 2016 data 2017 data 2018 data 2019 Data
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
0.4054 0.3050627 113.64 197.84 92.59 68.92
0.433 0.4523107 77.04 194.24 92.70 99.34
0.605 0.6599044 76.61 191.34 126.97 140.13
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - - AVERAGE
1.4434 1.4172778 212.99 194.47 216.33 217.59 210.35

2016
Weighted sum by R2 + date
2016correction
2017 2018 2019 Correctio
2016 DoT 2017 DoT 2018 DoT 2019 DoT 2016 R2 2017 R2 2018 R2 2019 R2 Date×R2 Date×R2 Date×R2 DatexR^2 n Factor

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Calculations

- - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
43842 43842 43842 43842 0.5429 1 0.4054 0.3050627 4981992.6 8673729.8 4059272.6 3021476.6 23801.822
43859 43859 43859 43859 0.3559 1 0.433 0.4523107 3378842.7 8519185.3 4065581.9 4356909.4 15609.418
43868 43868 43868 43868 0.3561 1 0.605 0.6599044 3360768.1 8393760.1 5569713.8 6147300.6 15621.395
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
131569 131569 131569 131569 1.2549 3.0000 1.4434 1.4173 ### ### 13694568.3 ### 55032.63

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Calculations

2017 2018 2019


Correctio Correctio Correctio
n Factor n Factor n Factor

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Calculations

- - -
- - -
- - -
43842 17773.547 13374.56
43859 18990.947 19837.895
43868 26540.14 28948.687
- - -
- - -
- - -
-
-
-
-
-
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
### 63304.63 62161.14

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Version Date User Comments
1.0 2/10/2019 u/Bearcub84 First version of the sheet released. Still needs an updated formula from
u/SchoolinMedSchool for UWSA2 for 2018 data before it is complete.
-u/Bearcub84
1.1 2/10/2019 u/Bearcub84 First bug found: average G8:J8 were being calculated without the 2018 data.
1.2 2/10/2019 u/Bearcub84 Fixed
Average NBME calculated incorrectly field M6; fixed.
1.3 2/10/2019 u/Bearcub84 Added in u/XXXmotherboyXXX 's method of adjusting for test order. In this case,
1.4 2/10/2019 u/Bearcub84 IWas
usedfinally
date able
of test
to as
getthe variable
both Date ×instead of the order.
R2 Correction Currently does not
incorporated.
1.5 2/13/2019 incorporate R 2
values.
u/Bearcub84 u/Noobencephalon notified me of a bug in 2018 Uworld % correct calculation
1.6 2/24/2019 u/Bearcub84 whereby
Added in ita would calculate
2nd order a score
polynomial even iffor
formula nothing
UWSA2 was entered.
based Fixed.analysis of
on Excel
the raw data; still waiting on the official one.