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Abstract While the specific constraints may vary over time and by location, urban
planners essentially execute the same function, namely to create effective urban
areas subject to the constraints of land, resources, finance and time. Thereby, it
should be emphasized that planned urban forms cannot be excluded from organic
growth processes. Land-use planning is regarded as a branch of urban planning
including various disciplines which aims at providing land-use in an efficient and
ethical way, thus preventing land-use conflicts. A crucial stage in land-use planning
is the suitability analysis, which is the central part of land-use evaluation. Modern
planning theories lead to approaches that consider all stakeholders with a variety of
discourse values to avoid political and manipulative decisions. In recent years,
application of quantitative approaches such as multi-criteria decision making
techniques (MCDM) in land suitability procedures has increased. However, it is
generally impossible to provide a land-use allocation satisfying each land-use goal
simultaneously. Among MCDM techniques, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP),
allowing subjective judgments in a consistent way, has the ability of including the
criteria of land-use planning in a structured way. In addition, fuzzy rule based
systems (FRBS) can be regarded as an appropriate method to capture and represent
vague, imprecise and uncertain data in urban land-use planning. In this context, this
chapter proposes an AHP-FRBS integrated methodology with the aim of assessing
urban land-use suitability. The proposed methodology is applied on a selected area
in Turkey. Finally, scenario analysis is performed so as to evaluate different
scenarios.
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386 C. Kadaifci et al.
17.1 Introduction
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17 Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Rule … 387
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388 C. Kadaifci et al.
The related literature provides a clear development of the urban land-use discipline,
which becomes an important point with the environmental, social and engineering
progress. According to the Scopus database, urban land-use planning concept is a
highly researched area. The research is conducted by searching “urban land-use
planning” concept in the fields of keyword, title, and the abstract. Especially in the
early 2000s, in the early 2000s, there is an obvious trend and the researches on this
area lead to the highest level with thousands of papers in 2013. The researchers of
the urban land-use planning field are mostly from USA and China. Furthermore,
more than the halves of these documents are found as articles of international
journals such as Landscape and Urban Planning, Land Use Planning and
Transportation Research Record. Respectively, environmental science, social sci-
ence, engineering, earth and planetary sciences, agricultural and biological sciences
and computer science are the most studied subjects of the urban land-use planning.
In a similar manner, the urban land-use suitability concept follows the same trend
for the researchers and article characteristics but reaches just eighty papers in 2013,
sixty papers in 2014 and, forty-five papers in 2015. Additionally, land-use planning,
land-use, urban planning, urban area, urban growth, urban development, land-use
change, urbanization, and decision making are the most used concepts for literature
review.
Geographical Information System (GIS) is the main technique for urban land-use
planning studies to evaluate any type of land’s suitability. There are plenty of
frameworks, support systems and case studies of GIS-based urban land-use plan-
ning papers. Moreover, literature review highlights that land-use assessment, suit-
ability analysis, multi-criteria land suitability decision making, the comparison of
land-use plans and strategies, and data mining applications are the various subjects
of the field. Particularly, GIS and AHP techniques are commonly examined toge-
ther within these papers, and they all have applications/case studies for a specific
region.
While some of the studies discuss only the geomorphological/physical factors
like slope, elevation, and vegetation, some of them examine the social, economic
and environmental attributes in addition to these physical factors. For instance, a
GIS-based land-use suitability analysis model including physical, locational, social,
economic, and environmental factors for five types of land-use is suggested for
land-use suitability grading (Wang et al. 2015). Similarly, geomorphological,
geological, natural hazards and social-economic factors are discussed by using AHP
and GIS (Bathrellos et al. 2013). Another research performs a multi-criteria eval-
uation within GIS to derive a suitability map with the factors such as current
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17 Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Rule … 389
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Table 17.1 Literature review details
390
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(2011)
11 Chandio et al. (2011) x x x x
12 Ziadat (2007) x x
13 Anagnostopoulos and x x x
Vavatsikos (2012)
14 Cengiz and Akbulak x x x x
(2009)
15 Kergosien et al. (2014) x x
16 Booth and Muir (2011) x x
17 Dai et al. (2008) x x x x
18 Kaffashi and Yavari x x x x
(2011)
(continued)
C. Kadaifci et al.
Table 17.1 (continued)
17
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(2016)
29 Zhou (2015) x x x x x
30 La Rosa and Privitera x x x
(2013)
31 Uy and Nakagoshi x x x x x
(2008)
32 Dou et al. (2016) x x x
33 He et al. (2016) x
34 Dai et al. (2001) x x x x
32 1 1 32 4 1 14 13 1 1 1 1 7
(continued)
391
Table 17.1 (continued)
392
Techniques/methodology Type
Bayesian Genetic Hierarchical Digital Scenario Data Literature Conceptual Simulation Urban Rural Agricultural
network algorithm assessment elevation analysis mining review model
models
1 Zhang and Chen x
(2011)
2 Bathrellos et al. (2013) x x
3 Baffour Awuah et al. x
(2014)
4 Yu et al. (2011) x x
5 Meyer et al. (2014) x x x
6 Wang et al. (2015) x
7 Santé-Riveira et al. x
(2008)
8 Kang et al. (2013) x x
9 Porta et al. (2013) x x x
10 Pourebrahim et al. x x
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(2011)
11 Chandio et al. (2011) x
12 Ziadat (2007) x
13 Anagnostopoulos and x
Vavatsikos (2012)
14 Cengiz and Akbulak x x
(2009)
15 Kergosien et al. (2014) x x x
16 Booth and Muir x
(2011)
17 Dai et al. (2008) x
18 Kaffashi and Yavari x
(2011)
C. Kadaifci et al.
(continued)
Table 17.1 (continued)
17
Techniques/methodology Type
Bayesian Genetic Hierarchical Digital Scenario Data Literature Conceptual Simulation Urban Rural Agricultural
network algorithm assessment elevation analysis mining review model
models
19 Junker (2013) x x
20 Busscher et al. (2013) x x
21 Khalili-Damghani x x
et al. (2014)
22 Akimoto (2009) x x
23 Huang et al.,2012 x x
24 Joerin et al. (2001) x x
25 Keirstead and Shah x x
(2013)
26 Mosadeghi et al. x x
(2015)
Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Rule …
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(2016)
29 Zhou (2015)
30 La Rosa and Privitera x x
(2013)
31 Uy and Nakagoshi x x
(2008)
32 Dou et al. (2016) x
33 He et al. (2016) x x
34 Dai et al. (2001) x
1 2 1 3 2 1 6 1 2 23 9 6
393
394 C. Kadaifci et al.
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17 Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Rule … 395
Preliminary Study
Generating IF-THEN rules about
Determining the area to be analyzed actors and urban land-use suitability
index
Application
Performing sensitivity analysis
Getting information about sub-area
scores with respect to sub-criteria
AHP Rating Model
STOP
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17 Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Rule … 397
A Fuzzy Rule-Based System (FRBS) is one of the most important application areas
of the fuzzy set theory introduced by Zadeh in 1965. FRBS, a systematic inference
method (Ross 2010), is used to model the interaction and relationship between
variables and can be utilized for the problems involving uncertainty and vagueness
(Cordon et al. 2001). These systems are presented with IF-THEN rules as an
extension of classical rule-based systems, but in FRBS, both the antecedents and the
consequents are fuzzy sets (Cordon et al. 2001; Riza et al. 2015). To clarify the
fuzzy rules, assume that there are two antecedents, a consequent and their linguistic
values as fuzzy sets are defined (adapted from Riza et al. 2015).
The number of the vehicles = {Low, Medium, High}
The width of the street = {Narrow, Medium, Wide}
The speed of a car = {Slow, Medium, Fast}
Based on these conditions, a sample IF-THEN rule can be defined as “IF the
number of vehicles is LOW and the width of the street is MEDIUM, THEN the
speed of the car is FAST”.
Mamdani FRBS (Mamdani and Assilian 1975) and Takagi-Sugeno FRBS
(Takagi and Sugeno 1985) are two types of Fuzzy rule-based systems (Cordon et al.
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398 C. Kadaifci et al.
2001). Both of the models are similar and consider fuzzy inputs, but Mamdani
produces fuzzy outputs whereas Takagi–Sugeno produces crisp outputs (Mamdani
and Assilian 1975; Takagi and Sugeno 1985). In this study, the Mamdani type
FRBS is used to examine the suitability index of the determined alternatives. There
are four major components in the Mamdani FRBS: a knowledge base, an inference
system, fuzzification and defuzzification interfaces (Requena et al. 2003). Here, the
knowledge base represents the inputs and outputs, which are given to the system by
the analysts based on their experiences, literature review, and several required
analyses (Cordon et al. 2001). The inference system runs the IF-THEN rules where
the fuzzification and defuzzification interfaces act as the reciprocal of each other
(Requena et al. 2003).
The structure of Mamdani FRBS is given as follows (Cordon et al. 2001):
IF x1 is A1 AND x2 is A2 AND … AND xn is An THEN y is B where xi (i = 1, 2,
…, n) are input variables and y is the output variable. A1, A2, …, An and B are the
linguistic terms used for the corresponding input and output variables, respectively.
When centroid method is considered for defuzzification, the output of a fuzzy
rule based model constructed using Mamdani-type fuzzy logic rules is obtained as
follows (Ustundag et al. 2011):
PR1 ar
r¼1 A CAar
Y¼ PR 1 a ð17:1Þ
r A
r
where Aαr represents the fuzzy subset area which is formed by regarding the
membership values of input values in a fired rule with respect to Mamdani-type
fuzzy inference method. Depending on the fired number of rules, each area is
obtained and similar to the logic of center of gravity, area is multiplied by the
distance which is represented by CAar . Then, the sum of multiplications is divided
by the total area to obtain the output value of Y (Ustundag et al. 2011).
n
a ¼ Min lv ðvv Þ ð17:2Þ
v¼1
where 1 ≤ v ≤ n is the number of input variables that occur in the rule premise, n is
the total number of inputs. Depending on the values of inputs, different rules can be
fired out and Rl (Rl R) is the number of rules fired out of a total of R rules present
in the rule base for a set of input values lv ðvv Þ is the membership function value for
the xv input variable. Within each fired rule, the minimum value of the membership
functions considering all inputs is determined as α value.
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17.4 Application
The decision problem was structured, constructed and analyzed based on the iter-
ative stages of the decision making process. First, the criteria related to the land-use
planning problem were determined based on a literature review and experts who are
familiar with the area considered in the case study.
The proposed model was applied to Didim, which is a popular seaside town of
Aydın, lies on the Aegean cost of Turkey. Didim is the site of the antique city of
Didyma with its ruined Temple of Apollo. Didim is located on the north shore of
the gulf of Güllük, opposite Bodrum peninsula. The total population of Didim
based on Address Based Population Registration System (ABPRS) Database in
2014 is 73.385 (TUİK).
The criteria set have been determined based on the literature review and the
interviews with experts. “Land” represents the suitability of land characteristics of
the evaluated area for land-use planning. While “Location” criteria set covers the
position of the evaluated area in the form of distance to the some important
buildings and places, the “Transportation Convenience” criteria set covers the
distances to the alternative transportation systems.
After the decision model (Fig. 17.2) has prepared, a survey consists of the
pairwise comparison questions was prepared in 1-9 ratio scale and was sent to the
experts. Experts were asked to perform pairwise comparisons in linguistic scales,
and then comparisons were converted into the corresponding number (see Saaty
2008). The underlying meaning of pairwise comparison is to enable comparison of
criteria with respect to the goal and sub-criteria with respect to the related parent
criteria. In survey, a brief explanation about criteria has been given in order to
prevent misunderstandings.
The Super Decisions software was used to make all necessary calculations
related to the AHP model (www.superdecisions.com). The judgments of all experts
were entered into the software and the consistency of judgments has been checked.
If there was an inconsistency for an expert, the related expert were asked for
perform the pairwise comparisons again to reduce the inconsistency. The AHP
allows inconsistency to a reasonable degree because people are more likely to be
inconsistent when they are making judgments on their thoughts, feelings and
preferences (Saaty 2003). Thus, inconsistency becomes a tolerable measurement
error up to an acceptable level (10 % as suggested by Saaty) because greater
consistency does not indicate greater accuracy (Saaty 1999). In Table 17.2, the
inconsistency values of aggregated results are given.
After the consistency of the expert evaluations were checked, the geometric
means (see Saaty 1986) of all paired comparison judgments were computed in order
to reveal the aggregated group judgments. The relative priorities of the criteria and
sub-criteria are given in Table 17.2 including the inconsistency values.
The priority values in Table 17.2 indicate the weight of the sub-criteria and they
are used to evaluate rating scores of the determined areas. To evaluate the rating
scores of these areas, first evaluation scales need to be determined for each
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400 C. Kadaifci et al.
TRANSPORTATION
LAND LOCATION
CONVENIENCE
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“Very Short Distance”, and 5 indicates “Very Long Distance”. Due to the existence
of cost and benefit attributes in the model, while making pairwise comparisons,
very short distance is assumed to be an undesirable condition for cost attributes.
While the distance to the historical places is a cost attribute, the other sub-criteria in
the “Location” and “Transportation Convenience” criteria sets are benefit attributes.
For the “Land” criterion, the main indicator is the suitability of the land to use as a
residential zone. Thus, a 1-3 ratio scale was determined representing not suitable,
average, and suitable, respectively.
After the pairwise comparison of the sub-criteria scales was performed, the
rating scores of the areas were evaluated. In Fig. 17.3, there is a map of Didim
including the detailed information about the land characteristics, the important
buildings such as hospital, bus station, the city center, etc., and there are 13
determined areas which were planned to evaluate as candidates for being a resi-
dential zone. On the map, the square represents the ruined Temple of Apollo, which
is the most important historical place of Didim. The circle, triangle, and the pen-
tagon represent the only hospital in Didim, the bus station, and the port,
respectively.
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The white area, which involves the circle, square, and triangle, is the residential
zone, in other words the center of Didim. The line across the residential zone is the
current bus line. The areas, which include alternative areas 8 and 10, are forestland,
the white area with straight lines is the closed military area and it is not allowed to
be a residential zone. The areas around the residential area are protected and not
allowed to consider as a residential zone for now, but it may be possible with a new
regulation. That is why no alternative has been selected in these protected areas.
The last is the empty areas, which are allowed to settle, and the most possible areas
considering the land-use planning.
Each area was evaluated based on each sub-criterion and by summing up the
multiplication of the relative weight of the sub-criterion and the value of the
evaluation score; the overall rating score of the related area was obtained. For
instance, the rating score of Area 2 is 0.912, is calculated by summing up the scores
of all criteria. ((1.000 × 0.717) + (1.000 × 0.706 + 0.125 × 0.144 + 1.000 × 0.093 +
0.143 × 0.057) + (0.066 × 0.244 + 0.385 × 0.654 + 1.000 × 0.062 + 0.270 ×
0.04)). The rating scores of 13 determined areas are given in Table 17.3. These
scores were used as an input for the Fuzzy Rule-Based System in order to obtain the
suitability index of each.
Fuzzy Rule-Based System is designed by using the Fuzzy Inference Systems
(FIS) Editor of MATLAB. As aforementioned before, the Mamdani-type FRBS is
chosen due to the interpretability of the results and this type of FRBS has multiple
inputs and single output. Three input variables representing the criteria set in AHP
model and one output variable representing the suitability index of the determined
area, which is aimed to be assessed, are built. As membership functions of the
inputs and output, trapezoidal membership functions defined by quadruple (sl, cl,
cu, and su) were used, where sl and su, and cl and cu are the lower and upper
bounds of the support and the core, respectively (Botta et al. 2008). All input
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variables and the output variable had the same trapezoidal membership functions as
can be seen in Fig. 17.4.
After defining the membership functions, the IF-THEN rules, given in
Table 17.4, were generated. There are 27 rules to represent each possible condition.
To clarify the fuzzy rules, consider IF the land is “Low” (L), the location is
“Medium” (M), and the transportation convenience is “High” (H), THEN the
suitability index will be “Medium” (M).
The rating scores of each input variable corresponding to the areas were entered
into FIS Editor of MATLAB, and for each area, the suitability index was calculated
as an output. The suitability index calculations based on the fuzzy rules for Area 2
are given in Fig. 17.5 as a representative sample. The blue areas under the
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404 C. Kadaifci et al.
suitability index represent the fired rules. Note that rules 26 and 27 are fired for
Area 2. In Table 17.5, the suitability index values of the 13 areas can be seen.
Area 6 has the highest suitability value (0.847) based on the integrated AHP
Rating-FRBS Model. Being close to the hospital and the bus station, and also the
suitability of the land may cause the highest score among the others. By being in the
residential zone and also being one of the most suitable candidates to be a living
space, it is easy to reach all necessary places (such as hospital, school, bus line, bus
station, etc.) to live. Besides, construction works may be more manageable due to
the suitable infrastructure and the easiness of building in and transporting to all
necessary equipment. Area 2 and Area 1 are on the empty areas near the residential
zone (as can be seen on the map) and besides the suitability of their land, being
close to the port and the bus line may increase the suitability of these two areas. On
the other hand, Area 7, which is on the closed military area, has the lowest suit-
ability value. Areas in the residential zone, except Area 4, seem to be more suitable
comparing to the others. The reason behind the lowest suitability index value of
Area 4 may be its closeness to the ruined Temple of Apollo.
The integrated AHP Rating-FRBS model provides to analyze the suitability of the
determined areas in order to observe their usability as candidate areas to settle.
Based on the current structure and land types of Didim, the 13 areas were evaluated
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17 Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Rule … 405
and their roles in the future land-use planning were determined. But what if the
current situation will change?
Due to the touristic attractiveness and increasing population of Didim, there has
to be some changes and restructuring decisions to overcome the problems such as
the lack of health care services, the inadequacy of the existing bus line, basically the
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406 C. Kadaifci et al.
transportation problems both in the town and to the other cities. Thus, the possi-
bilities of restructuring trigger the scenario analysis process.
In order to analyze the suitability of the determined areas under the changing
conditions, four different scenarios have been determined: a new railway, a new
protected are (the area involving area 9), a new hospital, and the revision of the
current bus line. The new railway is the dashed line starting from the upper corner
of the map on Fig. 17.6. The line surrounding the residential zone is the revised bus
line, and the circle near Area 5 is the new hospital planned to build till the end of
the first quarter of 2016.
For each scenario, the areas were evaluated based on the changing conditions of
Didim and new scores for the inputs variables were obtained. These scores were
entered to the FIS Editor of MATLAB and the new suitability index values for the
areas under the determined scenarios were calculated. In Table 17.6, the suitability
index of the areas under the determined scenarios is given.
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For Scenario 1, a new railway will be built. The recalculated suitability index
values show that there is a slight difference between the current values and the
Scenario 1 because the weight of the distance to the railway is relatively small
comparing to others. Besides, the new railway is almost near to the majority of the
determined areas. Also, Area 4 and Area 7 have the lowest suitability indices in all
scenarios due to being close to the historical places and being in the closed military
area, respectively.
For Scenario 2, the light green area involving the Area 9 is changed from
allowed to settle to protected area. Based on the evaluations under this scenario, the
suitability index value of Area 9 decreases from 0.655 to 0.170. The rank of the
Area 9 changed from 5th to 11th and all other areas has the same rank as the
analysis.
For Scenario 3, there has not been any significant change in the suitability
indices of the areas. The reasons behind this may be explained by the relatively high
weight of the land criteria comparing to the others and the lower weight of being
close to the nearest hospital among others in the location criteria set. The existing
hospital is very close to the new one, so building a new hospital near to Area 5 has
almost no impact on the suitability of the areas.
Area 11 becomes the 6th suitable area among others based on Scenario 4. In the
current situation, it seems unfavorable to be a living space because it is far from the
current bus line, the hospital and the bus station and it is relatively out of the city
center. Revising the bus line makes Area 11 to be a more suitable candidate to be a
living space.
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17.5 Conclusion
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