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Frequent flooding wipes out crops, spreads disease and destroys homes. A country with a population of 164
million on a landmass the size of New York State, with more people moving inland. The pressures are
already apparent. Bangladesh has been gradually developing, with great progress in life expectancy and
GDP. However, the impact of climate change may overwhelm this progress. According to the Bangladesh
government’s 2009 Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan, “in an ‘average’ year, approximately one
quarter of the country is inundated.” Every four to five years, “there is a severe flood that may cover over
60% of the country.” Rapid erosion of coastal areas has inundated dozens of islands in the Bay. For
example, Sandwip Island, near Chittagong, has lost 90 percent of its original 23-square-miles—mostly in the
last two decades.
The IPCC Third Assessment Report, published in 2001, concluded that the poorest countries would be hardest
hit, with reductions in crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions due to decreased water availability,
and new or changed insect pest incidence. In Africa and Latin America many rainfed crops are near their
maximum temperature tolerance, so that yields are likely to fall sharply for even small climate changes; falls in
agricultural productivity of up to 30% over the 21st century are projected.
In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways :
● productivity, in terms of quantity and quality of crops
● agricultural practices, through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural inputs such as
herbicides, insecticides and fertilizers
● environmental effects, in particular in relation of frequency and intensity of soil drainage (leading to
nitrogen leaching), soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity
● rural space, through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land renunciation, and
hydraulic amenities.
● adaptation, organisms may become more or less competitive, as well as humans may develop urgency
to develop more competitive organisms, such as flood resistant or salt resistant varieties of rice.
Global warming could lead to an increase in pest insect populations, harming yields of staple crops like wheat,
soybeans, and corn. While warmer temperatures create longer growing seasons, and faster growth rates for plants,
it also increases the metabolic rate and number of breeding cycles of insect populations. Insects that previously had
only two breeding cycles per year could gain an additional cycle if warm growing seasons extend, causing a
population boom. Temperate places and higher latitudes are more likely to experience a dramatic change in insect
populations.
Droughts have been occurring more frequently because of global warming and they are expected to become more
frequent and intense in Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast
Asia. Their impacts are aggravated because of increased water demand, population growth, urban expansion, and
environmental protection efforts in many areas. Droughts result in crop failures and the loss of pasture grazing land
for livestock.
With high confidence, IPCC (2007:14–15) projected that over the first few decades of this century, moderate
climate change would increase aggregate yields of rain-fed agriculture by 5–20%, but with important variability
among regions. Major challenges were projected for crops that are near the warm end of their suitable range or
which depend on highly utilized water resources. Droughts are becoming more frequent and intense in arid and
semiarid western North America as temperatures have been rising, advancing the timing and magnitude of
spring snow melt oods and reducing river flow volume in summer.
Projected changes in yields of selected crops with global warming. This graph is based on several studies.
In Africa, IPCC (2007:13) projected that climate variability and change would severely compromise agricultural
production and access to food. This projection was assigned "high confidence." Africa's geography makes it
particularly vulnerable to climate change, and seventy per cent of the population rely on rain-fed agriculture for
their livelihoods. Tanzania's official report on climate change suggests that the areas that usually get two
rainfalls in the year will probably get more, and those that get only one rainy season will get far less. As of
2005, the net result was expected to be that 33% less maize—the country's staple crop—would be grown.
In East and Southeast Asia, IPCC (2007:13) projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% by the
mid-21st century. In Central and South Asia, projections suggested that yields might decrease by up to 30%,
over the same time period. These projections were assigned "medium confidence." Taken together, the risk of
hunger was projected to remain very high in several developing countries. More detailed analysis of rice yields
by the International Rice Research Institute forecast 20% reduction in yields over the region per degree
Celsius of temperature rise. Rice becomes sterile if exposed to temperatures above 35 degrees for more than
one hour during flowering and consequently produces no grain.