Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Chalita Srinuan, Ibrahim Kholilul Rohman, Pratompong Srinuan and Erik Bohlin
Abstract
The present study examines determinants of this digital divide in ASEAN countries
(Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand,
Singapore and Vietnam). To explain the evolution of the ASEAN digital divide, the
study focuses on potential causes which are the GDP per capita, the urban
proportion of the population, the competition level and the independent regulator.
Statistically, the first three of these factors explain the divide in the region concerned
while the role of independent regulator is not statistically significant suggesting the
need for the more effective role of regulator in conducting the market.
2
1. Introduction
The term "digital divide" refers to the gap between individuals, households,
businesses and geographic areas at different socioeconomic levels with regard to
opportunity to access information and communication technologies (ICTs) and to
their use of the Internet (OECD, 2001). Factors which determine the existence of a
digital divide include individual and household income, education, age, gender and
linguistic background.
In recent years, it has been accepted that ICTs are significant inputs to economic
growth. Moreover, the efficiency of ICTs in the development of international
competitiveness, health and education, and in creating new job possibilities, is
considered to be a significant component in determining the socioeconomic structure
of countries, and a way of decreasing poverty (World Bank, 2006). ICTs are not just a
producing sector as such, but are used in all sectors, e.g. education, health,
environment and government. Thus, inadequate ICT use makes it impossible to
optimize benefits. This digital divide issue can increase the inequality in economic
performance between developed countries and developing nations.
This paper examines whether a digital divide exists between developing
countries, which in this case are represented by ASEAN countries1. Since the digital
divide is not a technological problem but an economic, social, and political issue, an
econometric model is applied to analyze the effect of the digital divide among these
countries. The structure of the paper is as follows. Section 2 provides a literature
review of the digital divide. Telecommunication services in ASEAN countries are
described in section 3. Section 4 deals with the methodology and techniques. Section
5 explains and discusses the results. Section 6 draws conclusions.
2. Literature review
1
The members of ASEAN consist of 10 countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
regions, countries, or continents. This study concentrates on the international digital
divide, in particular ASEAN countries.
Several studies have assessed ICT diffusion in an international dimension (e.g.,
Caselli and Coleman, 2001; Chinn and Fairlie, 2004, 2006; Guillen and Suarez, 2001,
2005; Hargittai, 1999; Quibria et al., 2003; Wong, 2002; Noh and Yoo, 2008). These
studies examine digital inequality as a function of macro indicators such as gross
domestic product per capita (GDP per capita), human capital and industrial
competitiveness. Many studies indicate differences in social development and
economic growth among developing and developed countries. For example, Africa
contains 14.1% of the world population (57 countries), yet it has only 2.3% of Internet
users while the world average is 15.7% (Fuchs and Horak, 2008). Other differences
exist in the physical infrastructure available to a country, the number of Internet
users, literacy, and costs of a local call; see for instance Cilan et al. (2008).
Concerning the impact of policy reform in ICT on performance, privatization and
competition and autonomous regulatory agency have also been considered as the
variables (Fink et al., 2002; Mariscal, 2005). Especially among Asian countries, the
state of privatization, competition and regulation has led to higher levels of main
line availability, service quality and labor productivity.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was established on 8
August 1967 in Bangkok. As of 2006, the ASEAN region has a population of about
560 million, a total area of 4.5 million square kilometers, a combined gross domestic
product of almost US$ 1,100 billion, and total trade of about US$ 1,400 billion2. One
of the aims of the association is to accelerate economic growth, social progress and
cultural development in the region. This purpose shows a relationship between ICT
access and utilization, on the one hand, and socioeconomic order in the era of
globalization on the other hand. A gap in one aspect will create a gap in another
aspect, and vice versa. Therefore, the issue of ICT gaps all around the world
including in ASEAN countries needs to be handled carefully, because it can create
substantial impact on the socioeconomic and even political balance among the
ASEAN countries.
2 http://www.aseansec.org/64.htm
3
Although the total number of Internet users is continuously increasing in ASEAN
countries, there is no evidence to confirm that digital divide among these countries
can be neglected. However, if the digital divide exists and is very wide, it may
provide useful data for regulators and governments in order to take action to
develop and implement policies reducing the current digital divide among member
countries. In the end, the policy should accelerate economic growth, social progress
and cultural development in the region.
4
For ASEAN, it becomes interesting to evaluate the path of Vietnam development
in every aspect of telecommunication services. Further, Vietnam has the highest
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2002-2007 in all telecommunication
services, as shown in Figures 2 and 3.
Figure 2 Here
Figure 3 Here
National GDP per capita is often used as a proxy to represent the average level
of personal income in each country. ASEAN countries differ in income distribution
as shown in Figure 4. There is no doubt why Singapore has the highest penetration
rate whereas Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos have the lowest penetration rate among
ASEAN countries. Mariscal (2005) argued that the countries with similar GDP do
not have the same teledensity. In this case, Mariscal recommends the researcher to
uses the Gini coefficient instead of GDP per capita, since it can explain the income
distribution better. Figure 4 suggests that higher GDP yields higher Internet
penetration.
Figure 4 Here
Table 1 Here
5
Many scholars have argued that the ways to bridge the digital divide in the
developing countries should follow the developed countries. A famous policy is to
close the digital divide within a decade by privatizing telecommunications markets
and increasing the foreign ownership in telecom operators, but it is not successful in
African countries (Fuchs and Horak, 2008).
However, the way to close the digital divide in the developing countries may be
direct intervention by their governments. Moreover, the independent regulators
should support the government policies on digital divide since it will close digital
gap indirectly, for example, by giving the incentive for the operators in order to do
their business in the rural areas. The benefit will occur with the rural population
who usually far from ICT services.
Different policies are applied in ASEAN countries to bridge the digital divide.
For example, in Thailand, the Ministry of Information Technology (MICT) has
adopted the Bridging Digital Divide Strategic Plan (2008-2010) to increase ICT
accessibility, promote research and development, increase Web accessibility, develop
an assistive technology industry, and increase access to assistive technology and
related technology3. Moreover, the National Electronics Computer and Technology
Centre, a specialized national center under the National Science and Technology
Development Agency, has developed wireless technology to allow remote areas
better communication4. The Malaysian government introduced a universal service
provision program – the ―Infodesa‖ and ―Internet Desa‖ programs that target rural
population and computer infrastructure for rural schools. Besides these programs,
the government encouraged the use of ICT through its ―PC Ownership Campaign‖5.
Further, the Ministry of Information and Communication of Vietnam will spend
VND1 trillion deploying public telecom services in rural and remote areas in 20086.
In addition, there is an increasingly dynamic software sector that is being supported
by the government‘s commitment to the sector in the form of setting up software
3 www.apectelwg.org/jsp/download.jsp?seq=5091&board_id=GPA_TEL_DOCUMENT&doc_seq=1
4 http://www.ntc.or.th/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=147&Itemid=73
5 http://dspace.wul.waseda.ac.jp/dspace/bitstream/2065/2949/3/Honbun-3972.pdf
6 http://english.vietnamnet.vn/tech/2008/07/793180/
6
parks and creating targeted tax incentives7. Singapore, which has highest
penetration in ICTs and still builds a bridge for the digital divide according to the
independent regulators, has committed $25 million as its contribution towards the
movement over the next three years. They will concentrate efforts on bridging the
digital fault-lines of income, language and mindsets. In most cases, they will
collaborate with various organizations, with particular emphasis on key population
segments – senior citizens, homemakers, workers and special interest groups8.
(1)
where
xjt is the achieved penetration rate for xj devices at time t where (j=1, 2, 3 are
This study will utilize the methodology of compiling Digital Access Index (DAI)
which has been introduced by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU)
since 2003. The difference is that, while ITU calculates whole variables that are
presumed to have an effect on the accessibility, i.e. infrastructure, affordability
(pricing), knowledge (education), quality and usage, this study will only focus on
infrastructure (the access to fixed line and cellular mobile) and usage (the number of
Internet users per 100 inhabitants). Nevertheless, the benchmark value for each
7 Building Institutional Capacity In Asia, The Research Institute for Asia and the Pacific, Executive
Summary ―Vietnam ICT‖ Sept. 2001
8
http://www.ida.gov.sg/News%20and%20Events/20060926113231.aspx?getPagetype=21
7
variable will refer to what ITU sets as goal target.9 The index will be elaborated in
Appendix 1.
Figure 5 Here
This study analyses the relation between economic growth, level of urbanization,
level of competition in ICTs services, market, independent regulator, and the level of
digitization through a panel data analysis. We use all data of ASEAN countries from
the ITU database during 1990-2005. Our model is adapted from Mariscal (2005) as
shown in equation (2):
where
9
International Telecommunication Union (ITU) (2005), World Telecommunication Development Report:
Access Indicator for Telecommunication Society, Chapter 5.
8
In addition, the implemented equation regressed in this study derived from Mariscal
(2005) with different value of dependent variable can be presented as follows:
where
Digital Index Value
All variables are in natural logarithms except for dummies. The expected impact
of all independent variables is positive.
However, the problem of endogeneity in the panel data is not addressed well by
the Mariscal study. Many studies clearly suggest that the performance of ICT
structure will directly influence the performance of the economy (OECD, 2003)11.
Kanamori (2004), Cette (2004), Smith (2002), Pitkowski (2003) and Vu (2004) also
provide different perspectives which point to a clear conclusion that, besides the fact
that economic growth will promote penetration rate and ICT progress, the opposite
explanation can be supported. Consequently, what Mariscal suggested did not
address the analysis of the potential endogeneity problem, particularly in terms of
the GDP variable.
The fact that the panel data model itself is constructed to solve the endogeneity
problem has been investigated in some research. Olley and Pakes (1996) investigate
the endogeneity problem in determining the production function in
telecommunication sector. He resumed that the endogeneity problem is solved by
10
With less stressing of analysis, this study also represent dummy variable of com2 for partial
competition and com3 for full competition (with the base dummy of monopoly).
11 OECD (2003), ―Information and Communication Technologies: ICT and Economic Growth
9
disappearing the labor in production function while introducing the level
investment to act as instrumental variable.12 Griliches and Mairesse investigated
general aspect of endogeneity problem in production function.13 Griliches and
Mairesse (1998) explain the various sources of endogeneity in production function
and suggest the used of panel data in solving the problem. The main message of
their research is that the capital and labor in traditional Cobb-Douglass production
function are not exogenous thus need the instrument variable to solve the problem.
In this study, we estimate equation (2) by assuming that GDP is influenced by
the lag of it‘s value as an instrumental variable (instrument relevant) and also
assuming that the lag of GDP has no covariant with error term in equation 3
(instrument validity). We express these two requirements by stating the following
assumptions:
Cov(GDPi, t-2, it) =0, (4)
Cov(GDPi, t-2, LGDPi, t-1) 0 (5)
Thus the instrumental variable of panel data will solve the first equation by
regressing the following equation (6):
5. Results
Our result indicates that every variable has a relationship with the digitization
index as indicated in the following Table 2.
Table 2 Here
Table 2 represents the output that is derived from Appendix 2. This output
somewhat revises Mariscal (2005) by paying more attention to the endogeneity
problem, which is sourced from GDP. The general conclusion is that the endogeneity
12
Olley, S. and Pakes, A. (1996) ‗The dynamics of productivity in the telecommunications equipment
industry‘, Econometrica 64, 1263-1297.
13 Griliches Z. and J. Mairesse (1998). ‗Production functions: The Search for Identification,‘ in
Econometrics and Economic Theory in the Twentieth Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial
Symposium, 169-203. Cambridge University Press.
10
problem, when comparing Appendices 2 (without endogeneity) and 3 (with
endogeneity), shows higher magnitude as well as goodness of fit from the regression
(as shown by the value of R2). This finding is actually consistent with some research
which uses instrumental variable as the tools of analysis. For instance, it is also
suggested by Griliches that the IV will create lesser parameter in the production
function hence tends to reject the hypotheses of constant return to scale. It is
somewhat a direction that IV tries to avoid overestimation in determining the
parameter.
We can conclude that most of the coefficients are consistent with our hypothesis
as well as previous findings by Mariscal. Since the dependent variable is in natural
logarithms, each explanation in this study will refer to the growth of the digitization
index and not the level of the index. We can explain the detailed results from the
table as follows:
Lag of GDP is reported to be 0.891 which means that as the GDP per capita
increases by 1 per cent, the digitization index in ASEAN countries will increase by
0.89 per cent. This is a strong suggestion that the effect of GDP in generating
penetration rate for each ICT device is very large. Higher GDP per capita yields a
higher digitization index.
Log of urban population also plays an important role in driving the digitization
index. An increase of 1 per cent in urban population will increase the penetration
rate by 2.52 per cent. This means that, given the easier level of infrastructure
installment in urban region, the digitization index will be also stimulated.
11
In addition, role of the regulator tends to have a negative impact in promoting
the digitization index. The relative effect of the independent regulator is 13 per cent,
meaning that for a country which has an independent regulator, the digitization
index growth would be 13 per cent less. It has to taken into account that as the result
is not statistically significant.
This finding is very close to the result of Mariscal (2005), except the fact the most
parameters resulted from this study are higher and the non-significant role of
independent regulator in ASEAN countries. However, the comparison between this
study and Mariscal (2005) is somewhat different because Mariscal (2005) only pays
attention to fixed line, whereas this study provides the composite index of all
devices. Nevertheless, it can be inferred that the effect of GDP is higher than in the
Mariscal (2005), suggesting that the impact of income (demand) is greater in ASEAN
than in Latin America which has the magnitude of GDP around 0.79 per cent. The
urban population has a similar result, where in the case of Latin America the
magnitude is about 2.41.
The impact of the independent regulator has the opposite sign. It may imply that
independent regulators in Latin America play stronger role on closing digital gap
than the regulator in ASEAN countries since the existence of autonomous regulator
in Latin America create 16 percent higher for promoting the penetration rate.
In addition, the dummy of privatization in Latin America is reported 0.15 which
then created the relative effect of 22.7 per cent. It means that for the country which
implements the privatization, penetration rate will be 22.7 per cent bigger. As it is
explained earlier, the dummy of competition in ASEAN has 58 per cent relative
12
effect hence assuming that privatization will create competition, we conclude that
the level of competition in ASEAN countries create the better magnitude in
promoting digitization index.
6. Conclusion
This paper has examined the role of GDP per capita, the urban proportion of
population, the competition level of the telecommunications market, and the
independent regulator as a dummy variable, in explaining the digital divide for a
group of ASEAN countries.
ASEAN countries are used as a sample of the developing countries to investigate
the digital divide. The telecommunication services examined (fixed line, mobile
phone and Internet) in ASEAN countries are spread unequally. Only five countries
have full competition (i.e. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam)
and independent regulators (i.e. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and
Thailand). This information is an important factor to explain and resolve the digital
divide. We introduce the digitization index for each country in order to present the
level of digitization in three main telecom services.
There are three major findings: firstly, income influences the digital divide as it
relates to higher use of fixed, mobile phones and the Internet. Secondly, the
regulator and the market have specific consequences. Market competition has
significant relationship with a digitization index in ASEAN countries. It means that
as the market become more competitive, the digitization index is also increase.
However, the role of the independent regulator is not statistically significant. This
result implies that the roles of the regulator are still needed in order to get rid of
digital gap. In addition, supported by the result of urban population variable, it
13
reveals that as more people live in the urban areas, the digitization index will
increase. Thus, digitization policy is also depends on how government implement
infrastructure sector in the road map of development program.
Furthermore, each country should be concerned that the digital divide will still
exist and will get even worse, not only on the international level but also within the
nation itself.
14
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Appendix 1
The index is constructed on the basis of three telecommunications services, i.e. fixed
line, mobile and Internet. The formula for calculating the index can be presented as follows:
(1)
where
xjt is the achieved penetration rate for xj devices at time t (where j=1, 2, 3 are
The justification is based on ITU (2005), which suggests the benchmark standards for
each service as follows:
Services Benchmark
Fixed Line 60
Cellular/Mobile 100
Internet user 85
Source: ITU (2003)
Thus, supposing a country X has the figures for fixed line 35%, cellular 65% and
Internet 15% respectively, the index will be calculated as follows:
18
The digitization index for ASEAN countries using the above formula can be
presented as follows.
Countries 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Indonesia 0.985 1.289 1.601 1.786 2.176 2.749 3.744 4.701 6.421 9.014
Thailand 4.095 5.049 5.975 6.064 6.881 8.182 11.713 14.246 21.103 24.562
Malaysia 10.931 12.624 14.808 17.275 20.872 26.788 31.661 35.420 38.472 43.842
Philippines 1.393 1.895 2.267 3.132 4.008 5.825 8.539 10.493 13.482 17.681
Singapore 26.517 30.772 37.299 41.987 49.576 62.392 66.465 72.016 75.378 79.181
Brunei 17.953 20.388 20.698 21.400 23.546 26.552 29.161 30.230 33.693 40.298
Lao P.D.R. 0.212 0.256 0.316 0.364 0.475 0.557 0.797 1.060 1.473 2.038
Myanmar 0.201 0.230 0.274 0.293 0.316 0.315 0.343 0.414 0.441 0.540
Vietnam 0.599 0.917 1.053 1.368 1.699 2.229 3.143 4.210 5.579 11.749
Cambodia 0.093 0.160 0.215 0.303 0.380 0.481 0.722 1.147 1.415 2.242
19
Appendix 2
sigma_u .50246397
sigma_e .3107191
rho .72337586 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
Instrumented: llaggdp
Instruments: lurpop com1 dregu ll2gdp
sigma_u .48968796
sigma_e .29763523
rho .73023189 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
Instrumented: llaggdp
Instruments: lurpop com2 com3 dregu ll2gdp
20
Appendix 3
Panel Data Regression without instrumental variable
. xtreg ldigital llaggdp lurpop com1 dregu
sigma_u .51366841
sigma_e .3249313
rho .71421175 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
sigma_u .49416781
sigma_e .31246168
rho .7143869 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
21
Figures and Tables
22
Source: ITU, 2008
Note: The dashed line is the ASEAN average
23
Figure 4 ASEAN GDP per capita and Internet penetration
24
Singapore Ministry of Infocomm Development Full competition
Communication,
Authority of Singapore
Information and Technology
Thailand Ministry of Information National Telecommunications Partial competition
and Telecommunication
Commission
Technology
Vietnam Ministry of Posts and Ministry of Posts and Full competition
Telematics Telematics
25