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PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF SUGAR PRODUCTION IN 2019-20 SS

Based on the satellite images procured in the latter part of June 2019, the total acreage
under sugarcane in the country is estimated to be around 49.31 lakh hectares in 2019-20
SS, which is over 10% lower than 2018-19 sugar season’s cane area of around 55.02 lac ha.
Uttar Pradesh, the leading sugarcane and sugar producing State in the country, is estimated
to have sugarcane area at 23.60 lakh hectares, as against 24.11 lac ha. in 2018-19 SS i.e. a
marginal decrease of about 2%.Considering varietal replacement by high yielding cane
varieties in remaining parts of the State, an improvement in yield per hectare is expected
under normal conditions.Thus, sugar production in U.P. in 2019-20 SS is estimated to be
around 120 lakh tons, which is more or less at the same level of 118.23 lac tons produced in
2018-19 SS.
The other major sugar producing State, viz. Maharashtra’s cane area has gone down by
about 30% for 2019-20 SS, mainly due to poor rainfall from September’2018 onwards,
followed by low reservoir levels, which adversely affected sowing of 15 month and 12 month
crops. As against the cane area of 11.54 lac ha. in 2018-19 SS, area is expected to
decrease to8.23 lac. Ha in 2019-20. Sugar production is, therefore, estimated to be around
70 lac tons in 2019-20 SS, as against 107.19 lac tons produced in 2018-19 SS.
Similar to Maharashtra, due to poor rainfall in cane growing areas, sugarcane area in
Karnataka has also decreased for 2019-20 SS. Area under sugarcane in 2019-20 SS is
expected to be about 4.20lac. Ha as against 5.02 lac ha. in 2018-19 SS, which is lower by
about 16%. Sugar production in 2019-20 SS is estimated to be around 35 lac tons, as
against 43.65 lac tons expected to be produced in 2018-19 SS.
Sugarcane area in Tamil Nadu for 2019-20 SS has decreased to about 2.30 lac ha. as
against 2.60 lac ha. in 2018-19 SS, mainly due to deficient rainfall in major cane growing
districts during NE monsoon 2018. Sugar production is expected to be around 7.5 lac tons in
2019-20 SS as against 8.60 lac tons expected to be produced in 2018-19 SS.
The remaining States are expected to collectively produce about 50 lac tons of sugar in the
2019-20 SS, almost at the same level as in the current season.
During 2018-19 SS, till 30th June, 2019, about 328.09 lakh tons of sugar have been
produced and another 1.0 – 1.5 lakh tons is expected to be produced in the special season
till September, 2019 in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, taking total sugar production in 2018-19
SS to about 329 – 329.50 lac tons.
In the current season 2018-19, about 29.5 Cr. ltrs of Ethanol made from B heavy
molasses/sugarcane juice have been supplied to the OMC’s so far. As per standards, this is
equivalent to sugar diversion of about 3 lac tons.
As per above, ISMA estimates production of about 282 lakh tons of sugar in the season
2019-20, which is about 47 lac tons lower than the current 2018-19 SS production of around
329.5 lac tons. This estimated production is based on assumption of normal rainfall and
other optimum conditions.
The above is a preliminary estimate of sugarcane and sugar production in 2019-20 SS.
After considering rainfall in July – September, 2019, water situation in reservoirs and second
set of satellite images in September-October 2019 for across India, ISMA will review the
analysis and release its 1st advance estimates. By that time, the crop will be more mature
and there will be more clarity on the rainfall and water availability.
● The opening stocks as on 1st October 2019 is expected to be an all time high of
around 145 lac tons. As compared to a normative requirement of around 50 lac tons
on 1st October of any year as opening stocks, the industry is unnecessarily carrying
about 95 lac tons of sugar inventory. From the estimates for next year’s production, it
is clear that there will still be a small surplus over the domestic requirement in
2019-20 sugar season, and, therefore, there will be need for India to export sugar in
the next year also.

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