7 t h ASIAN REAL ESTATE SOCIETY CONFERENCE

SEOUL, KOREA 4-6 JULY 2002

A Spatial Analysis of Singapore’s

Industrial Property Values

Shi-Ming Yu and Ann Basuki

Department of Real Estate
School of Design & Environment
National University of Singapore

Abstract:
The Jurong Town Corporation (JTC) is a statutory body responsible for the
industrialization of Singapore since its establishment in 1968. As the largest
landlord of industrial properties, its role includes the planning, development
and management of some 30 industrial estates located in various parts of
Singapore. Valuation is an important function to support the allocation,
management and redevelopment of the industrial properties, especially when
economic cycles and industries have increasingly shorter time spans.

This paper examines the valuation of industrial properties, focusing on the

spatial distribution of industrial property values. It covers the establishment of
a valuation model for all JTC industrial properties. The model will help
provide indicative valuation of every industrial property under its
management. The model is also built on GIS platform, which will allow for the
spatial analysis of industrial property values. This will help to further improve
on the planning and allocation of industrial uses as well as decision-making in
the redevelopment of certain industrial estates.

Key words: industrial property values, automated valuation model, GIS, spatial analysis
1. Introduction

Extensive studies on factors affecting property value, especially on the importance of location
due to the spatial immobility of property, have been carried out. Various techniques have
been used to examine the significance of location on determining property values,
especially for residential and commercial properties. However, industrial property
remains a relatively under-researched area in the literature. This study aims to fill this
gap.

In Singapore industrial space is provided by both the public and private sector. Public sector
refers to public authorities that are government bodies such as Jurong Town Corporation
(JTC) and Housing Development Board (HDB), while private sector refers to companies
that had built industrial properties for owner-occupation and also industrial property
developer firms. In terms of floor space, the private sector has 75 per cent of the market
share in 1999 (Chow, et al., 2002).

JTC is a statutory body responsible for the industrialization of Singapore since its
establishment in 1968. As the largest landlord of industrial properties, its role includes the
planning, development and management of some 30 industrial estates located in various parts
of Singapore. A wide range of industrial facilities were developed by JTC, which include
prepared industrial land, standard factory, workshops, flatted factory, Business Parks and
Science Parks. In this study the focus is on the first three types of industrial property.

From the planning point of view, the challenge for Singapore is the scarcity of land. Demand
for land will continue to increase as the economy grows and population expands. The 2001
Concept Plan makes provisions for high value-added industries which will contribute more to
Singapore’s economic growth. The plan has set aside sufficient land for industries in the
future inspite of the land intensive nature of some of these industries. Figure 1 shows the
allocation of land for industrial uses. These are concentrated mainly in a few outlying areas,
namely Jurong (western part), Changi (eastern part) and Woodlands (northern part).

2
 Figure 1. Concept Plan 2001

Source: Urban Redevelopment Authority

Valuation is an important function to support the allocation, management and redevelopment

of the industrial properties, especially when economic cycles and industries have increasingly
shorter time spans as shown in figure 2. With the primary concerns of accuracy and
efficiency, automated valuation model has emerged as one way to address these needs.

Figure 2. Economic Performance

20

15

10
GDP Growth (%)

0
61

64

67

70

73

76

79

82

85

88

91

94

97

00
19

19

19

19

19

19
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

-5

-10

Source: Singapore Department of Statistics

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Although there is no perfect valuation method that is able to predict the actual value of a
property precisely all the time, a good model should be able to estimate values that are as
close as possible to the actual transacted values as frequently as possible. Statistical analysis
provides a useful tool in analyzing the importance of physical, location and economic factors
in value determination.

This paper examines the valuation of industrial properties, focusing on the spatial distribution
of industrial property values. It covers the establishment of a valuation model for all JTC
industrial properties. The model will help provide indicative valuation of every industrial
property under its management. The model is also built on GIS platform, which will allow
for the spatial analysis of industrial property values. This will help to further improve on the
planning and allocation of industrial uses as well as decision-making in the redevelopment of
certain industrial estates.

2. Literature Review

The automated valuation model is one way to address the need for more objective and
quantifiable valuations. Computer analysis of data has been widely used as it can greatly
reduce the time to estimate a value, especially when mass appraisal is needed. The model is
more thorough and systematic than human assessment. It is a systematic appraisal of groups
of properties as of a given date using standardized procedures and statistical testing
(McCluskey et al., 1997; Waller 1999). In the modeling, the aim is to derive a mathematical
model, which represents supply and demand patterns for groups of properties.

Accuracy in data collection and collation are essential to ensure that the data assembled is of
sufficient quality. Compatible data format is equally essential to support the transferring and
downloading of data from one system to another. The modeling techniques can take a number
of forms, such as regression analysis, expert systems and neural networks.

Regression method has been widely used especially in the US (Mark and Goldberg, 1988;
Murphy, 1989; Ambrose, 1990; Fehribach et al., 1993; Ramsland and Markham, 1998;
Panayiotou et al., 1999; Isakson, 2001). The common problem with regression analysis is

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multicollinearity between explanatory variables that causes coefficient estimates to be
unstable.

Ridge regression technique was introduced as an alternative to multiple linear regressions

when the data are highly correlated which result in unstable regression coefficient estimates
(Hoerl and Kennard, 1970; Newell, 1982 and Ferreira and Sirmans, 1988). Ridge regression
introduces biased estimates for these regression coefficients and therefore has a smaller mean
square error than the multiple linear regressions. This will result in the regression coefficients
being closer to their expected values and have the correct signs. To obtain the ridge
regression solution one must determine how much bias must be introduced to ensure stable
property characteristics, which can be achieved by examining a graph for each regression
coefficient for differing extent of bias.

The potential of expert systems to property valuation has been the subject of a number of
studies in the past (Scott, 1988 and Nawawi et al., 1997). The systems consist of three
components: a user interface, an inference engine and the knowledge base. The user interface
allows the end-user to interact with the system. The inference engine contains the logic and
reasoning, while the knowledge base contains the relevant data. The decision making process
of an expert are transcribed into a series of “if/then” statements in the knowledge base. The
systems will ask the end-user a series of questions, which the inference engine then uses to
search the knowledge base that can lead to a conclusion. The potential problems of this
system include maintenance of the knowledge base to adapt to the changing environment, the
programming and debugging of the inference engine. Property values are very dynamic;
therefore the knowledge base will need to be reprogrammed each time external factors cause
property values to change. The system is time consuming and difficult to extract and
accurately quantify specific knowledge from experts (Wyatt, 1996).

Several studies have applied Neural Network methodology for valuation of residential
property (Borst, 1995; Tay and Ho, 1995; McCluskey, 1996). Neural networks are a
nonlinear methodology, trained by example to learn relationships from repeatedly presented
input and output of data sets. It is self-maintaining, dynamic and automatically adapt to
changes from exposure to new information. The models are conceptually difficult to
understand and explain. It does not provide a traceable path on how a decision was made.
Therefore many neural network critics present the black box argument. The proper setting of

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neural networks model takes several iterations to find the set of parameters that best fit in
application, thus can have a very long run times. As found in many studies, small changes
can result in very different findings (Allen and Zumwalt, 1994, Worzala et al, 1995). The
results are inconsistent between neural network packages, even between runs on the same
software.

Multiple regression analysis has been demonstrated, as being the primary technique used in
the mass appraisal. Therefore in this study we will use multiple regressions for the automated
valuation model. It is basically a hedonic model, attempting to disaggregate value into
different contributing factors such as physical characteristics of the property. In order to get
an accurate and effective model, all attributes should be properly accounted for.

Ambrose (1990) examines the relationship between the asking price and the physical
characteristics in northeast Atlanta during 1986 and 1987. The results show that the
building’s size, the office space, the number of dock-high and drive-in doors, the presence of
railway siding and the ability to build-to-suit office space are significant in determining the
asking price. A study by Asabere and Huffman (1991) indicates that location, neighbourhood,
lot size and time have affected the industrial land value in Philadelphia significantly and
overzoning for industry has caused land with industrial use to have about 58 percent lower
value compare to commercially zoned land. Fehribach et al. (1993) included financial traits,
location attributes and market economic conditions as variables to determine the factors that
influence industrial property prices in Dallas and Tarrant Counties from 1987 to 1991. The
financial variables include industrial capitalization rate and prime rate. The location variables
are the distance to major highway or airport and the economic variables include indices on
employment, consumer price and industrial production. Linear relationship was assumed. The
results indicate that building size, office space, number of dock-high doors, ceiling height,
age, prime rate, county, distance to airport, type of tenant, industrial cap rate and the date of
sale are significant variables in the explanation of the sample’s sales prices. The latest study
by Lockwood and Rutherford (1996) indicates that physical characteristics, regional market
influences and location factors are the primary determinants of industrial property values in
Dallas/Fort Worth area over the 1987-1991 period. The national market factor and interest
rate are found to have insignificant influence over industrial property prices.

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A number of researches have applied Geographic Information System (GIS) to property
valuation (Ishizuka, 1995; Gallimore et al., 1996; Wyatt, 1996; McCluskey et al., 1997; Yu et
al.,2000 ). The studies have demonstrated the added value of the geographical display and
locational analysis of property information; various datasets are required to be joined with the
database in ArcView, which hold additional spatial information.

3. Research Design

The study covers a period of 9 years from 1993 to 2001. In the early 1990s Singapore
experienced strong economic growth due partly to high foreign investment (figure 3).
Economic growth slowed in 1996 followed by a significant decline due to the Asian financial
crisis in 1997.

Figure 3. Net Foreign Investment Commitment

10,000.0
9,000.0
8,000.0
Net Foreign Investment

7,000.0
Commitment

6,000.0
($ million)

5,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
0.0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Source: Singapore Dept. of Statistics

The performance of industrial properties follows the pattern closely. The industrial property
price index increased steadily from 1993 and reached its peak in the third quarter of 1996
(figure 4). Subsequently the price index fell steadily to its lowest in the third quarter of
1999 before moving up slightly in 2000. Due to the heightened uncertainties in the global
economic environment, the price index fell again almost to the level in the third quarter
of 1999 in late 2001.

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 Figure 4. Industrial Property Performance

180 12
160
10
140

Vacancy rate (%)

120 8
Price Index
100
6
80
60 4
40
2
20
0 0

2002Q1
93Q1

96Q1

99Q1
Q4

Q3

Q2

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q4

Q3

Q2
Price Index Vacancy

Source: Urban Redevelopment Authority

This study covers only workshops, standard factories and purpose-built factories belonging to
JTC. Workshops have land area of less than 500 square metres, standard factories have land
area starting from 500 square metres and purpose- built factories starting from 1000 square
metres. These factories are sold by JTC to industrialists for 30 year or 30 + 30 year leases.
Under the terms and conditions of the lease, the lessee has the right to reassign after a certain
period of occupation. The buyer will take over the remaining lease, subject to the same terms
and conditions as the original assignment. Excluding the outliers, there are 128 transactions
for workshops, 360 transactions for purpose-built factories and 493 transactions for standard
factories. Figure 5 presents the geographical distribution of the transaction data.

Figure 5. Transaction Data Distribution

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Table 1 lists the summary statistics of the land rates and floor rates for each of the three types
of the industrial properties. Workshops have the highest mean for both land and floor rates
while purpose-built factories have the lowest.

Table 1. Summary of Transaction Data

Workshop Standard Factory Purpose-built
Land Rate Floor Rate Land Rate Floor Rate Land Rate Floor Rate
(psm) (psm) (psm) (psm) (psm) (psm)
Mean 2996.48 2151.74 980.14 1650.81 671.88 1146.09
Standard Deviation 1290.92 753.99 514.06 578.12 609.09 566.22
Range 6477.01 3355.57 2787.15 2519.42 4644.82 3366.89
Minimum 689.66 689.66 162.01 468.05 34.25 190.07
Maximum 7166.67 4045.23 2949.16 2987.47 4679.07 3556.96

Secondary source data were obtained from the following government agencies:
1. Monetary Authority of Singapore: Monthly Prime Rate
2. Urban Redevelopment Authority: Quarterly Vacancy Rate
3. Singapore Department of Statistics: Building Material Index, Unit Labour Cost,
Unemployment Rate, Growth in Industrial production and Consumer Price Index
(CPI)

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Spatial Distribution Analysis
Comparisons were made for transaction prices per square metre of the gross floor area (floor
rate) and per square metre of land area (land rate). A deflation factor was used
over the period of study to obtain the comparable prices.

In the analysis, the transactions were grouped based on the industrial estate where the
property is located. The largest industrial estate, Jurong, is further subdivided into eight areas.
We use Arc View GIS to perform the spatial analysis, by applying the functions of map
overlay and data aggregation. The relevant data sets were transferred into SPSS for non-
parametric tests.

We intend to capture the dynamics of the spatial distribution of industrial property values
over time, specifically for the year 1995 and 2000. These periods were chosen since in 1995
the price index was reaching its peak while in 2000, the opposite happened (figure 4).

Regression Analysis
Four groups of variables are included in the analysis. These are physical attributes, location,
financial and economic variables.

Physical Attributes
Land area, building area and building age are included in the regression model. Other
physical attributes, which have proven to be significant in previous studies, such as office
space, number of dock-doors and ceiling height, were not included due to the unavailability
of data.

Location variable
The variable estate is included to determine the effect of location on the transaction price. In
the database only industrial properties in fifteen estates were transacted from 1993 to 2001.
Since Jurong is the largest estate and most of the transactions were from this estate, we
subdivided the estate into 8 areas as follow: Jurong East, Jurong Pier, Chin Bee, Joo Koon,
Benoi, Gul, Pioneer and Tuas. A dummy variable is used to represent the various locations.

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Financial variable
As most real estate purchases are financed, prime rate is an indication of the cost an investor
incurs through his acquisition.

Economic variables
Several indicators of economic activity were examined. These include GDP growth,
unemployment rate, growth in industrial production, consumer price index (CPI), building
material index, labour cost index and vacancy rate. Unit labour cost constitutes almost half of
the overall weight in the manufacturing business cost index (JTC, 2001)

Regression Model
A separate model will be developed for standard factory, purpose-built factory and workshop.
Based on the curve estimation and as proven in previous studies by Ambrose (1990) and
Fehribach et al (1993), a linear relationship was assumed to exist between the dependent and
independent variables.

The linear equation is specified as follows:

Property value = f(Land Area, Floor Area, Estates, Age, Effective Year, Prime Rate, GDP
growth, unemployment rate, growth in industrial production, vacancy rate, Consumer Price
Index, Building Material Index, Labour Cost index)

4. Spatial Distribution

The transacted price of a JTC property reflects the market value of the building subject to
JTC’s land lease conditions at the time of the transaction. A land rent is payable based on the
initial contract when the industrial property was first assigned by JTC. For subsequent
transactions or reassignments, the new buyer will continue to pay the contracted land rent. As
a result, during recession the transacted price will be very close to the market value of the
building, while during a boom, the price will take into account the profit rent for the land.
The land rents are divided into two categories for outlying areas and urban and suburban
estates. The land rents for urban and suburban estates are higher due to the higher permissible
density of development.

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12
 Figure 6. The distribution of floor rate (psm)

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 Figure 7. The distribution of land rate (psm)

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A non-parametric technique, the Kruskal-Wallis test was applied to determine whether there
was a difference in the average of land rates and floor rates in various estates for the three
types of industrial properties. Almost all categories confirmed at 1 per cent significant level
that the values were not distributed uniformly among the estates (Table 2).

Table 2. Kruskal-Wallis test of Land Rates and Floor Rates

Type Chi-square Degrees of
freedom
Land Rates (psm) Purpose-built 96.199* 17
Standard Factory 87.693* 10
Workshop 49.719* 7
Floor Rates (psm) Purpose-built 28.638* 17
*
Standard Factory 29.756* 10
Workshop 24.626* 7
* indicates significant at the 1 per cent level
** indicates significant at the 5 per cent level

Figures 6 and 7 present the spatial distribution of industrial property values (floor rate and
land rate per square metre, respectively) for purpose-built factory, standard factory and
workshop in 1995 and 2000. The spatial units are grouped based on their standard deviation
from the respective means. The darker areas represent areas with higher values whereas the
lighter areas represent those with lower values. The white areas are areas where no
transactions were registered for that particular type of industrial property.

The distribution shows that there is no distinct pattern with regard to the effect of location (or
estate) on industrial property value. While there are different levels of value exhibited in
different estates, these are likely due to the agglomeration effects of certain industries as well
as the infrastructure of the estate rather than, say, nearness to transportation hub. This could
be unique to Singapore given its small size and the well developed transportation network,
which allows easy accessibility.

The comparison between 1995 and 2000 also shows no distinct pattern in the distribution of
values. In fact, the estates with the highest values in 1995 were different from those in 2000.
This could be attributed to the changing environment as a result of new policies and
initiatives by the government. Furthermore, given JTC’s role in the industrialization of the

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country, the distribution of industrial property values is very much subject to policy and
strategy changes.

5. Regression Results

Table 2 presents the summary of the stepwise multivariate regression results. All the
variables included in the models are significant at the 5 per cent significant level. The
independent variables for the standard factory model explained 78 per cent of the variations.
For the purpose-built factory, the model explained 70 per cent of the variations, while the
model for workshop explained 68 per cent of the variation.
For all the models, floor area and effective years were found to be the most significant in
explaining the variance of the dependent variables. These are to be expected since the
transacted price reflects closely the building value, which is determined largely by the floor
area as well as the remaining lease term. The variable land area is more significant for
purpose-built and standard factories and not for workshops. This is also expected since the
variation in land area for workshops is much smaller than the other two categories. As with
the spatial distribution, the regression results show that location, as represented by the
different estates, is not amongst the most significant independent variables.

Table 2. Summary of Regression Results.

Purpose-built Factory
Independent Adjusted R2 Standardized t Sig. VIF
Variables Coefficients
 .865
Floor Area .655 20.623 .000 2.119
Effective Year .672 .241 3.682 .000 5.145
Prime Rate .688 .131 4.522 .000 1.010
Land Area .695 -.105 -2.553 .011 2.028
Age .699 -.150 -2.300 .022 5.137
Location (Pioneer) .702 -.061 -2.089 .037 1.041
Durbin Watson: 1.834

Standard Factory
Independent Adjusted R2 Standardized t Sig. VIF
Variables Coefficients

Floor Area .603 .441 9.599 .000 4.653
Effective Year .670 .341 12.367 .000 1.675
Building Material Index .708 .276 9.271 .000 1.958
CPI .742 .199 6.712 .000 1.945
Land Area .767 .383 8.120 .000 4.918

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 Location (Kamp. Ayer) .770 .094 3.229 .001 1.853
Prime Rate .773 .074 2.913 .004 1.424
Location (Benoi) .776 -.053 -2.487 .013 1.018
Location (Senoko) .777 -.047 -2.141 .033 1.066
Durbin Watson: 2.114

Workshop
Independent Adjusted R2 Standardized t Sig. VIF
Variables Coefficients

Floor Area .308 .520 9.601 .000 1.162
Effective Year .554 .543 9.700 .000 1.242
Location (Jurong East) .613 .266 4.644 .000 1.296
Building Material Index .652 .345 5.260 .000 1.700
CPI .679 .217 3.360 .001 1.653
Durbin Watson: 1.97

For the financial variable, prime rate, it is significant for purpose-built and standard factories
but not so significant for workshops due to the relatively lower prices for the latter.

For the economic variables, Building Material Index and Consumer Price Index, they are
significant in the standard factory and workshop models but not significant in the purpose-
built factory model. This can be expected as the standard factories and workshops are built
by JTC with similar design and the cost of construction would therefore affect the transacted
price. On the other hand, purpose-built factories, as the name implies, are built by the
industrialists for their own specific needs. Potential buyers of such purpose-built properties
could therefore choose to build or buy when the cost of construction is low.

Autocorrelation is measured by using the Durbin-Watson statistics. The correlation of each

residual and the residual for the time period immediately preceding the one of interest was
measured. For all the three models the value is close to 2, which indicates almost total
randomness.

The variance inflation factor (VIF) is calculated for each independent variable to detect
collinearity amongst the variables. Neter, Wasserman and Kutner’s rule of thumb associated
with VIF is that an independent variable with a VIF above 10 would indicate a severe effect
on the regression model. None of the variables chosen for the models indicated a variance of
inflation factor above 10. Therefore multicollinearity does not appear to be a concern.

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6. Conclusion

This study has attempted to develop a valuation model for industrial properties owned by
JTC, a public sector body who is also the largest industrial property landlord in Singapore.
Transactions of purpose-built factories, standard factories and workshops over a 9 year period
from 1993 to 2001 were analysed. The regression models for the three types of factory space
produce an acceptable adjusted R2 of about 70%. The coefficients of the independent
variables are expected with the most significant being the floor area and the remaining lease
term. Both economic and financial variables are also significant in some of the models.
However, the variable for location, which is defined by the different industrial estates, is not
significant in all the three models. The spatial distribution of the transacted prices, using a
GIS platform, also does not indicate any significant pattern. This could be unique to
Singapore, given the small land size and the efficient network of transportation.

________________________

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Asian Real Estate Society Conference, Seoul, 4-6 July 2002