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Chapter Contents
● Introduction
● The Fate of a Previous Globally Integrated Financial and Monetary Order
● The Bretton Woods Order
● The Crisis of the Early 1970s
● From Floating Exchange Rates to Monetary Unions
● The Dollar’s Declining Global Role?
● The Globalization of Financial Markets
● Conclusion
Reader’s Guide
The international monetary and financial system plays a central role in the global
political economy. Since the late nineteenth century, the nature of this system has
undergone several transformations in response to changing political and economic
conditions at both domestic and international levels. The most dramatic change was the
collapse of the integrated pre-1914 international monetary and financial regime during
the inter-war years. The second transformation took place after the Second World War,
when the Bretton Woods order was put in place. Since the early 1970s, another period
of change has been under way as various features of the Bretton Woods order have
unravelled: the gold exchange standard, the adjustable peg exchange-rate regime, the US
dollar’s global role, and the commitment to capital controls. These various changes have
important political consequences for the key issue of who gets what, when, and how in
the global political economy.
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214
● Introduction
ERIC HELLEINER
It is often said that money makes the world go pursuit of power, ideas, and interests (Kirshner
around. In this age of globalization, the saying 2003).
appears more relevant than ever. International The interrelationship between politics and sys-
flows of money today dwarf the cross-border trade tems of money and finance is particularly apparent
of goods. And the influence of these flows seems at the international level, where no single political
only to be enhanced by their unique speed and authority exists. What money should be used to
global reach. facilitate international economic transactions and
If money is so influential, it is fitting that it how should it be managed? What should the nature
should have a prominent place in the study of of the relationship between national currencies be?
global political economy, and scholarly research on How should credit be created and allocated at
the political economy of international monetary the international level? The answers to these ques-
and financial issues has indeed grown very rapidly tions have profoundly important implications for
in recent years. While perspectives vary enormously politics, not just within countries but also between
within this literature, scholars working in this field them. It should not surprise us, then, that they pro-
share the belief that the study of money and finance voke domestic and international political struggles,
must adopt a wider lens than that adopted by most often of an intense kind.
economists. This chapter highlights this point by providing
Economists are trained to view money and fin- an overview of the evolution of the international
ance primarily as economic phenomena. From their monetary and financial system since the late nine-
standpoint, money serves as a medium of exchange, teenth century. The first section examines how
a unit of account, and a store of value, while financial changing political circumstances, both internation-
activity allocates credit within the economy. Both of ally and domestically, during the inter-war years
these functions are critical to large-scale economic undermined the stability of the globally integrated
life, since they facilitate commerce, savings, and financial and monetary order of the pre-1914 era.
investment. The next section describes how a new interna-
These descriptions of the economic role of money tional monetary and financial system—the Bretton
and finance are certainly accurate, but they are also Woods order—was created in 1944 for the post-
limiting. Money and finance, after all, serve many war period, with a number of distinct features.
political purposes as well (not to mention social The following four sections analyse the causes and
and cultural ones). In all modern societies, control consequences of the unravelling of various fea-
over the issuing and management of money and tures of that order since the early 1970s: the gold
credit has been a key source of power, and the exchange standard, the adjustable peg exchange-
subject of intense political struggles. The organiz- rate regime, the US dollar’s prominent global role,
ation and functioning of monetary and financial and the commitment to capital controls. In the next
systems are thus rarely determined by a narrow chapter, Louis Pauly addresses another feature of
economic logic of maximizing efficiency. They also the contemporary international financial order: its
reflect various political rationales relating to the vulnerability to crises.
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215
BOX 7.1
The Theory of the Adjustment Process Under the International Gold Standard
In theory, the international gold standard was a context, the monetary authority that issued notes and
self-regulating international monetary order. External regulated the banking system had to stimulate the
imbalances would be corrected automatically by do- automatic adjustments of the gold standard by fol-
mestic wage and price adjustments, according to lowing proper ‘rules of the game’. In the event of
a process famously described by David Hume: the a trade deficit, it was expected to tighten monetary
‘price–specie flow mechanism’. If a country experi- conditions by curtailing the issue notes of and rais-
enced a balance of payments deficit, Hume noted, ing interest rates. The latter was designed not just to
gold exports should depress domestic wages and induce deflationary pressures (by increasing the cost
prices in such a way that the country’s interna- of borrowing) but also to attract short-term capital
tional competitive position—and thus its trade po- flows to help finance the payments imbalance while
sition—would be improved. Hume’s model assumed the underlying macroeconomic adjustment process
that most domestic money was gold coins, but the do- was taking place. In practice, however, historians of
mestic monetary system of most countries on the gold the pre-1914 gold standard note that governments
standard during the late nineteenth and early twen- did not follow these ‘rules of the game’ as closely
tieth centuries was dominated by fiduciary money in and consistently as the theory of the gold standard
the form of bank notes and bank deposits. In this anticipated (Eichengreen 1985).
John Ravenhill chap07.tex V1 - July 30, 2007 5:13 P.M. Page 216
216 this kind. As the scramble for colonies intensified Within each bloc, currencies were usually fixed
after 1870, many imperial powers often encouraged vis-à-vis each other, and some international lend-
●
the circulation of their currencies in the newly ing resumed. But between the blocs, currencies
ERIC HELLEINER
acquired colonies during this period (Helleiner were often inconvertible and their value fluctuated
2003; chs 6, 8). These currency unions and imperial considerably for much of the decade. International
currency blocs were designed to make economic flows of capital between the blocs were also limited,
transactions within each union or bloc easier to and often regulated tightly by new capital control
conduct. regimes.
world currency. New York also began to rival Lon- financial and monetary power in that era is said to 217
don’s position as the key international financial have been more pluralistic than hegemonic, with
●
centre. In these new circumstances, the United stability being maintained by co-operation between
218 remained narrow before 1914. In many countries, downwards. A depreciation of the national cur-
central banks were not even public bodies in this rency provided a quicker, less painful, manner of
●
period, and in colonial or peripheral regions, mon- adjusting the country’s wages and prices vis-à-vis
ERIC HELLEINER
etary authorities were often controlled by foreign those in foreign countries in order to boost exports
interests. and curtail imports.
After the First World War, the domestic political A floating exchange rate also provided greater
order was transformed in many independent states. policy autonomy to pursue expansionary monet-
The electoral franchise was widened, the power of ary policies that could address pressing domestic
labour grew, and there was increasing support for economic needs. While on the gold standard, a
more interventionist economic policies. In this con- government wishing to bolster economic growth
text, it was hardly surprising to find new demands by lowering interest rates would experience cap-
for monetary and fiscal policies to respond to do- ital flight and an outflow gold of and would be
mestic needs rather than to the goal of maintaining forced to reverse the policy in order to restore
external convertibility of the currency into gold, and the stability of the currency. With a floating ex-
the confidence of foreign investors. Governments change rate, the government could simply let the
began to run fiscal deficits, and central banks came exchange rate depreciate. The exchange rate would
under new public pressure to gear interest rates to adjust to the changing level of domestic prices and
address domestic unemployment. wages instead of the other way around. This de-
It was these new domestic circumstances— preciation would also reinforce the expansionary
rather than declining UK power—that many be- intent of the initial policy, since exports would be
lieve played the key role in undermining the stability bolstered and imports discouraged. More generally,
of the integrated international and monetary sys- it is worth noting that a floating exchange rate was
tem during the inter-war period. As governments also attractive to many governments in the early
ceased to play by the ‘rules of the game’, the ‘self- 1930s because it could insulate the country from
regulating’ character of the gold standard began monetary instability abroad, particularly from the
to break down (see Box 7.1). Short-term interna- deflationary pressures emanating from the USA at
tional financial flows also became more volatile this time.
and speculative, as investors no longer had con- In addition to abandoning the gold standard,
fidence in governments’ commitment to maintain many governments during the 1930s turned to
fixed rates and balanced budgets. Faced with these capital controls to reinforce their national policy
new domestic pressures, central banks also found it autonomy. With this move, they insulated them-
more difficult to co-operate in ways that promoted selves from the disciplining power of speculative
international monetary and financial stability. cross-border financial movements. If, for example,
In the context of the international financial crisis a government wanted to bolster domestic economic
of 1931 and the Great Depression, many govern- growth by lowering interest rates or engaging in de-
ments then chose simply to abandon the gold ficit spending, it no longer had to worry about
standard in order to escape its discipline. At the capital flight. For this reason, it was natural to
time, the collapse of international lending and ex- find John Maynard Keynes, the leading advocate
port markets, as well as speculative capital flight, of such domestically-orientated, activist macroeco-
had left many countries with enormous balance nomic management, emerge as one of the strongest
of payments deficits. If they stayed on the gold supporters of capital controls in the early 1930s.
standard, these deficits would be addressed by defla- As Keynes put it, ‘let finance be primarily national’
tionary policies designed to press wages and prices (Keynes 1933: 758).
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219
KEY POINTS
●
● In the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, provision of stable international lending, the main-
220 speculative financial flows, and the general break- ‘In my view the whole management of the domestic
down of international economic integration. economy depends upon being free to have the ap-
●
propriate rate of interest without reference to rates
ERIC HELLEINER
●
How Does the IMF Work?
the ways that Keynes and White had hoped the But governments remain committed to the other
Bretton Woods institutions would. Public interna- key features of the order. What, then, became of
tional lending was provided for temporary balance the Bretton Woods order? In some respects, it
of payments support, as well as for reconstruc- seems to be still alive. Currencies remain convert-
tion and development. United States policy-makers ible, and the IMF and IBRD still exist (although
also promoted ‘embedded liberal’ ideals when they their purpose has been altered, as described below).
were engaged in monetary and financing advis- In the following sections, however, I explore the
ory roles around the world (Helleiner 1994; ch. 3; causes and consequences of the unravelling of the
2003; ch. 9). other features of the Bretton Woods regime since
During the heyday of the Bretton Woods or- the early 1970s: the gold exchange standard; the
der, from the late 1950s until 1971, the IMF and adjustable-peg exchange-rate system, the US dol-
IBRD were assigned a more marginal role in the lar’s prominent global role, and the commitment
system than Keynes and White had hoped for. to capital controls.
KEY POINTS
● The Bretton Woods conference in 1944 created a payments; a gold-dollar standard; an adjustable-
new international monetary and financial order that peg exchange-rate regime, an acceptance of capital
was inspired by an ‘embedded liberal’ ideology and controls, and support for the IMF and World Bank.
backed by US leadership.
● Many of the features of the Bretton Woods order
● Governments joining this order committed them- were in place between 1945 and 1958, but this
selves to currency convertibility for current account order reached its heyday between 1958 and 1971.
John Ravenhill chap07.tex V1 - July 30, 2007 5:13 P.M. Page 222
222
The breakdown of the gold significant quantities of SDR to enable this currency
exchange standard to play much of a role in the global monetary system.
During the 1960s, and in particular after the mid-
The Bretton Woods system is usually said to have 1960s, Triffin’s predictions were increasingly borne
begun to collapse during the early 1970s, when both out. US currency abroad did grow considerably lar-
the gold exchange standard and the adjustable-peg ger than the amount of gold the US government
exchange-rate system broke down. The former was held to back it up. In one sense, the situation was be-
brought to a swift end in August 1971, when the neficial to the United States: the country was able to
United States suddenly suspended the convertibility finance growing external deficits associated with the
of the US dollar into gold. Since other currencies Vietnam War and its domestic Great Society pro-
had been tied to gold only via the US dollar, this gramme (which produced rising imports) simply
move signalled the end of gold’s role as a standard by printing dollars. Indeed, the United States was
for other currencies as well. This breakdown had doing much more than providing the world with
in fact been predicted as far back as 1960, when extra international liquidity by the late 1960s; it was
Robert Triffin (1960) had highlighted the inherent actively exporting inflation by flooding the world
instability of the dollar-gold standard. In a system with dollars. In another sense, however, the country
where the dollar was the central reserve currency, was becoming increasingly vulnerable to a confid-
he argued that international liquidity could be ex- ence crisis. If all holders of dollars suddenly decided
panded only when the United States provided the to demand their convertibility into gold, the USA
world with more dollars by running a balance of would not be able to meet the demand. Another
payments deficit. But the more it did so, the more cost to the USA was the fact that the dollar’s fixed
it risked undermining confidence in the dollar’s value in gold was undermining the international
convertibility into gold. competitiveness of US-based firms. If other coun-
One potential solution to the Triffin paradox tries had been willing to revalue their currencies,
was to create a new international currency whose this competitiveness problem could have been ad-
supply would not be tied to the balance of pay- dressed, but foreign governments resisted adjusting
ments condition of any one country. Keynes had the value of their currencies in this way.
in fact proposed such a currency—which he called A crisis of confidence in the dollar’s convert-
‘bancor’—during the negotiations leading up to ibility into gold was initially postponed when
the Bretton Woods conference. In 1965, the United some key foreign allies—notably Germany and Ja-
States began to support the idea that the IMF could pan—agreed not to convert their reserves into gold
issue such a currency as a means of supplementing (sometimes as part of an explicit trade-off for US
the dollar’s role as a reserve currency, and Special security protection: Zimmerman 2002). But other
Drawing Rights (SDR) were finally created for this countries that were critical of US foreign policy
purpose in 1969. The SDR was not a currency that in this period—France in particular—refused to
individuals could use; it could be used only by na- adopt this practice, seeing it as a reinforcement
tional monetary authorities as a reserve asset for of American hegemony (Kirshner 1995: 192–203).
settling inter-country payments imbalances (and Private speculators also increasingly targeted the
subject to certain conditions). Despite its poten- US dollar, especially after sterling was devalued
tial, IMF members have never been willing to issue in 1967. When speculative pressures against the
John Ravenhill chap07.tex V1 - July 30, 2007 5:13 P.M. Page 223
dollar reached a peak in 1971, the United States was exchange rates, and to declare that each country 223
forced to make a decision: it could either cut back now had the responsibility for determining the par
●
the printing of dollars, or simply end the currency’s value of its currency.
224 Advocates argued that floating exchange rates need questioned. Financial movements in that decade,
not necessarily be associated with either competit- it was argued, had been volatile, not because of
●
ive devaluations or with a retreat from international floating exchange rates but because they were re-
ERIC HELLEINER
economic integration, as they had been in the sponding properly to the highly unstable underlying
1930s. Their role in encouraging destabilizing spec- economic conditions of the time (for example,
ulative financial flows during the 1930s was also Friedman 1953).
KEY POINTS
● The initial signs of the unravelling of the Bretton ● The adjustable-peg exchange-rate regime of
Woods system are usually dated to the early Bretton Woods was replaced in 1973 by a system
1970s, when the gold exchange standard and the of floating exchange rates between the currencies
adjustable-peg exchange-rate system collapsed. of the leading economic powers. The change was
caused by heightened capital mobility and by a
● In 1971, the United States ended the gold convert-
reconsideration of the merits of floating exchange
ibility of its currency, and, by extension, that of all
rates among leading policy-makers, particularly in
other currencies. The US decision reflected its de-
the United States.
sire to free itself from the growing constraint on its
policies that gold convertibility was imposing.
”
they create. These flows, in turn, are said to generate (Strange, 1986: 2).
John Ravenhill chap07.tex V1 - July 30, 2007 5:13 P.M. Page 225
It is certainly true that currency trading has Accord, which established target ranges for the 225
grown very dramatically since the early 1970s; the major currencies to be reached through closer mac-
●
size of daily foreign exchange trading increased roeconomic policy co-ordination (Henning 1987;
226 competitiveness vis-à-vis the United States. The ef- policies. It has also moved recently to boost its
fectiveness of this ‘dollar weapon’ rested on the US surveillance role beyond the bilateral context by
●
dollar’s key currency status and the fact that the creating ‘multilateral consultations’ in which sys-
ERIC HELLEINER
US market remained such an important one for tematically important countries can have a forum to
Japanese and German businesses in this period. It discuss and debate specific issues of global economic
was a strategy that met with some success for the significance.
USA in both instances, although it also left the USA The first such multilateral consultation—
vulnerable to a crisis of confidence in the dollar at involving China, the Euro area, Japan, the USA,
some key moments. and Saudi Arabia—was announced in 2006 with a
focus on global imbalances. Some have hoped that
this kind of initiative might allow the IMF to take
The IMF and exchange rate an active role in reinvigorating the kind of multilat-
management eral exchange rate management that characterized
the Plaza to Louvre period. With its near universal
Arguments for exchange rate management among membership, the IMF may be better suited than
the leading powers have emerged at other moments, other bodies, such as the G7 or OECD, to launch
most recently vis-à-vis China’s large trade surpluses. this kind of initiative.
In this most recent episode, US policy-makers, in But sceptics argue that the IMF’s ability to
particular, have pressed the IMF to take a more as- influence the decision-making of these powerful
sertive stance in pressing the Chinese government governments is likely to be very limited. Even in the
to allow its currency to appreciate. These demands bilateral context, the Fund’s advice has generally
have generated new interest in the IMF’s mandate had a significant impact only when backed up by
in this area. the promise of loans. None of these governments
When it was created in 1944, one of the central is a borrower from the Fund. Without the financial
purposes of the Fund was to oversee its adjustable- ‘carrots’ of its loans, the IMF’s power is limited and
peg exchange rate regime. When that regime broke each of these governments faces enormous incent-
down in the early 1970s, many questioned the IMF’s ives to maintain control over exchange rates, given
future. The outbreak of the international debt crisis their significance to national economic life.
in the early 1980s soon gave the Fund a new life
as an institution focused on crisis management
vis-à-vis poorer countries (see Pauly, Chapter 8 in The creation of the euro
this volume). But the Fund was also reborn for
a second time after the early 1970s. In an effort Although efforts to stabilize the relationship
to maintain some semblance of multilateral rules between the values of the world’s major curren-
over the new floating exchange rate system, the cies have been limited since the early 1970s, some
IMF was given a new mandate in 1976—under governments have moved to create stable monet-
Article iv in the Second Amendment to its Articles ary relations in smaller regional contexts. The most
of Agreement—to ‘exercise firm surveillance over elaborate initiative of this kind has taken place
the exchange rate policies of members’ (quoted in in Europe. At the time of the breakdown of the
Pauly 1997: 105). Bretton Woods exchange-rate system, a number of
The IMF’s ‘surveillance’ activities have since be- the countries of the European Community (EC)
come an important part of its overall operations. attempted to stabilize exchange rates among them-
With individual member governments, the Fund selves. These initial efforts were followed by the
engages in ‘Article iv consultations’ in which it of- creation of the European Monetary System in 1979,
fers advice about various aspects of their economic which established a kind of ‘mini-Bretton Woods’
John Ravenhill chap07.tex V1 - July 30, 2007 5:13 P.M. Page 227
adjustable-peg regime in which capital controls speculative financial flows, a fact demonstrated 227
were still widely used and financial support was vividly in the 1992–3 European currency crisis.
●
provided to protect each country’s currency peg At that moment, European governments faced an
BOX 7.3
Economists have pointed out that national govern- capital controls or to embrace a floating exchange
ments face an inevitable trade-off between the three rate, thereby sacrificing one of the other goals within
policy goals of exchange-rate stability, national mon- the ‘impossible trinity’.
etary policy autonomy, and capital mobility. It is only Historically, during the era of the gold standard,
ever possible for governments to realize two of these governments embraced fixed exchange rates and
goals at the same time. If, for example, a national capital mobility, while abandoning national monet-
government wants to preserve capital mobility and a ary policy autonomy. During the Bretton Woods or-
fixed exchange rate, it must abandon an independ- der, national policy autonomy and fixed (although
ent monetary policy. The reason is straightforward. adjustable) exchange rates were prioritized, while
An independent expansionary monetary policy in an capital mobility was deemed to be less important.
environment of capital mobility will trigger capital Since the early 1970s, the leading powers have sac-
outflows—and downward pressure on the national rificed a global regime of fixed exchange rates in
currency—as domestic interest rates fall. In this con- order to prioritize capital mobility and preserve a
text, it will be possible to maintain the fixed exchange degree of monetary policy autonomy. Many govern-
rate only by pushing interest rates back up and ments within this system, however, have embraced
thereby abandoning the initial monetary policy goal. fixed rates at the regional or bilateral level by us-
If, however, the government chooses to maintain the ing capital controls or by abandoning national policy
expansionary policy, it will need either to introduce autonomy.
John Ravenhill chap07.tex V1 - July 30, 2007 5:13 P.M. Page 228
228 latter undermined a key idea that had sustained Because of this basis of support for EMU, many
support for activist monetary policies: the Keyne- on the political left have been wary of the project.
●
sian notion that there was a long-term trade-off They worry that it might produce domestic de-
ERIC HELLEINER
between inflation and unemployment. By high- regulation, cutbacks to the welfare state, and new
lighting how experiences of inflation over time constraints on states’ abilities to address unemploy-
may encourage people to adjust their expectations, ment and other social and economic problems. The
this new economic analysis suggested that activ- resultant costs, they suggest, will be borne dispro-
ist monetary management could simply produce portionately by vulnerable groups such as the poor
‘stagflation’—that is, a combination of high un- and women (Gill 1998; B. Young 2002). Interest-
employment and high inflation. The appearance of ingly, however, there have also been many social
stagflation during the 1970s seemed to vindicate democrats and unions across Europe—groups usu-
this view. If people began to anticipate higher and ally less friendly to neo-liberal thinking—who have
higher levels of inflation, this analysis suggested been supportive of the drive to monetary union
that they would adjust their wage demands and (Josselin 2001; Notermans 2001). Because it can
pricing decisions accordingly, creating an upward protect a country from speculative currency at-
inflationary spiral. To break these inflationary ex- tacks, some have seen EMU as creating a more
pectations, authorities would have to re-establish stable macroeconomic environment in which pro-
their credibility and reputation for producing stable gressive supply-side reforms could be undertaken to
money by a strong commitment to price stability. promote equity, growth, and employment. In some
The perceived need for this kind of credibility and countries, adopting the euro has also been seen as a
reputation has also been reinforced by the discip- way to lower domestic interest rates by reducing risk
lining power of international capital markets (see, premiums that the markets were imposing, a result
for example, Andrews and Willett 1997). that has actually improved governments’ budget-
Neo-liberal monetary thinking played an im- ary positions and prevented cuts to the welfare
portant role in generating support for European state. Some social democrats and unions have also
Monetary Union (EMU). By eliminating a key hoped that EMU might eventually help to dilute
macroeconomic rationale for wanting a national the monetary influence of the neo-liberal Bundes-
currency in the first place (that is, the commit- bank across Europe, and encourage co-ordinated
ment to activist national monetary management), EU-wide expansionary fiscal policies. In addition,
it made policy-makers less resistant to the idea some social democrats and unions have seen EMU
of abandoning these monetary structures. Indeed, as an opportunity to reinvigorate national cor-
many policy-makers saw the currency union as a poratist social pacts in which co-operative wage
better way to achieve price stability than by main- bargaining, employment friendly taxation schemes,
taining a national currency, because the union and other social protection measures can assume
appeared to allow them to ‘import’ the German a key role in the process of adjusting to external
central bank’s anti-inflationary monetary policy. economic shocks.
Like the German Bundesbank, the new European The EMU project also had a broader political
central bank was given a strict mandate to pursue meaning. In addition to challenging US power (see
price stability as its primary goal. In addition, some below), the creation of the euro has been seen as
neo-liberals have applauded the fact that EMU, by an important symbol of the process of fostering
eliminating the possibility of national devaluations, ever-closer European co-operation. Many analysts
might encourage greater price and wage flexibility also argue that the decision to create the euro
within national economies as workers and firms are was linked to a broader political deal between
forced to confront the impact of external economic Germany and other European countries at the
‘shocks’ in a more direct fashion. time of the Maastricht Treaty. Many European
John Ravenhill chap07.tex V1 - July 30, 2007 5:13 P.M. Page 229
countries—especially France—had become in- by certain political conditions. Particularly import- 229
creasingly frustrated by the domination of the ant in that case have been the power and political
●
European monetary system by the German Bundes- interests of France in the colonial and post-colonial
BOX 7.4
The theory of optimum currency areas was first de- criteria. If selected countries experience similar
veloped by the Nobel-prize-winning economist Robert external shocks, for example, the theory notes that
Mundell (1961) to evaluate the pros and cons of they are more likely to be good candidates for mon-
forming a monetary union among a selected group of etary union, since they will each have less of a need
countries. While assuming the union will produce mi- for an independent exchange rate. Even if they exper-
croeconomic benefits in the form of lower transaction ience asymmetric shocks, the macroeconomic costs
costs for cross-border commerce, the theory focuses of abandoning national exchange rates may still be
its analytical attention on the potential macroeco- low if wages and price are very flexible within each
nomic costs associated with abandoning the exchange country, if labour is highly mobile between coun-
rate as a tool of macroeconomic adjustment. If these tries, or if there are mechanisms for transferring
costs are low, the region is said to approximate more fiscal payments among the countries. Each of these
closely an ‘optimum currency area’ that should be conditions would enable adjustments to be made
encouraged to create a monetary union. to external shocks in the absence of an exchange
To evaluate how significant these costs are in each rate.
regional context, the theory examines a number of
John Ravenhill chap07.tex V1 - July 30, 2007 5:13 P.M. Page 230
230 and even a medium of exchange, as a way to insulate have some say, the adoption of the US dollar
themselves from domestic monetary and political would leave Latin-American countries as monetary
●
uncertainty. The option has been made easier by the dependencies. United States, policy-makers have
ERIC HELLEINER
broader liberalization and deregulation of Latin- begun to debate what kind of support they might
American financial systems in this period. Since provide to countries that adopt the US dollar, and
informal dollarization has already eroded national their answer to date has been ‘very little’. They
monetary sovereignty considerably, it has lessened have made it clear that dollarized countries would
resistance to the idea of formal dollarization. not be offered any role in the decision-making of
Formal dollarization also has many opponents in the US Federal Reserve, and that Fed officials have
Latin America. Critics highlight that countries that no intention of taking the concerns of dollarized
dollarize are giving up key tools—domestic mon- countries into account when they set US monetary
etary policy and the exchange rate—with which policy. United States, policy-makers are not even
their governments can manage their domestic eco- willing to consider providing lender-of-last-resort
nomies. The potential costs, they argue, have been support to institutions in dollarized countries. The
well highlighted in Argentina’s recent experience. only support they have discussed seriously is the
Between 1991 and 2001, Argentina managed its na- sharing of the seigniorage revenue that the United
tional currency on a ‘currency board’ basis, which States would earn from the dollar’s circulation in
tied the value of the currency tightly to the US dollar. Latin-American countries that formally dollarize
When the country began to experience growing cur- (see Box 7.5). Even this idea, however, was not able
rent account deficits after the mid-1990s, the only to pick up enough support to be endorsed by US
way it could correct the problem—while retaining Congress or US financial officials when it was de-
this monetary regime—was to undergo a costly bated in 1999–2000. As Cohen (2002) puts it, US
deflation. This deflation produced high unemploy- policy-makers seem to prefer a policy of ‘passive
ment and dramatic cuts to government spending, neutrality’ on the question of dollarization in Latin
and contributed to the country’s massive financial America. In his view, the only scenario in which US
crisis of 2001–2. policy-makers might become much more support-
Critics also point out that, while European coun- ive is if the euro began to pose a serious challenge
tries are joining a monetary union in which they to the dollar’s international position.
BOX 7.5
What is ‘Seigniorage’?
Seigniorage is usually defined as the difference the public, its effectiveness would be undermined,
between the nominal value of money and its cost as people would either not accept the coins or ac-
of production. This difference is a kind of ‘profit’ cept them only at a discount. In more modern times,
for the issuer of money. In medieval Europe, this metallic coins no longer dominate the monetary sys-
source of revenue was often very important for rul- tem, and governments now earn seigniorage also
ing authorities. They could earn it either openly by through the issuing of paper currency as well as
adding a ‘seigniorage’ charge (above the normal mint indirectly through their regulation of the creation of
charge that offset the cost of minting) when produ- bank deposit money. National monetary authorities
cing metallic coin, or more secretly by debasing their earn seigniorage not just from the use of the money
coin through a reduction of its weight or its ‘fineness’ they issue by citizens within their borders; the in-
(by increasing the proportion of non-precious alloy). ternational use of their currency will augment the
If the surreptitious strategy were to be detected by seigniorage revenue they earn even further.
John Ravenhill chap07.tex V1 - July 30, 2007 5:13 P.M. Page 231
231
KEY POINTS
●
● Floating exchange rates have performed an im- been more common, particularly in Europe, where
232 of the euro in Europe. Some European policy- More generally, it is also worth noting that the
makers have supported the euro’s creation for creation of a common European central bank might
●
this reason: they have seen it as a tool to bol- encourage Europe to present a more unified voice
ERIC HELLEINER
ster Europe’s power in the global political economy in international monetary politics. European Union
(Henning 1998: 563–565). In outlining the official countries could, for example, unify their voting
rationale for monetary union in its ‘One Market, stances in the IMF, where they already hold a larger
One Money’ report, the European Commission collective voting share than the United States.
(1990: 194, 191), for example, praised how the The other challenge to the dollar’s role comes
euro would bring greater ‘symmetry’ to the global from Japan, where policy-makers have recently
monetary order, and force the United States to be- become much more interested in promoting the
come ‘more conscious of the limits of independent international use of the yen, especially in the East
policy-making’. Asian region (Grimes 2003). Despite Japan’s emer-
What kind of a challenge will the euro pose to gence as the world’s leading creditor in the 1980s,
the US dollar? In 1990, the European Commission the yen was used very little at the international
(1990: 182) predicted that the euro would be a par- level throughout that decade. Even the Japanese
ticularly attractive international currency because themselves relied heavily on the US dollar in their
it would be backed by a conservative central bank international transactions in both trade and fin-
dedicated to price stability, and because it would ance. Indeed, the bulk of their assets held abroad
be able to be held in unified European money mar- remained in this foreign currency, a quite unpre-
kets that would be ‘the largest in the world’. At cedented and vulnerable situation for the world’s
the time of writing, however, the euro’s challenge largest creditor.
to the dollar has proved to be less significant than The East Asian financial crisis of 1997–8 en-
this prediction. One reason has been that European couraged many Japanese policy-makers to want
financial markets remain highly decentralized and, to promote the yen’s international role, especially
in the words of Fred Bergsten (1997: 88), there is in the East Asian region, where Japan’s trade and
‘no central government borrower like the US Treas- investment was growing rapidly. The crisis high-
ury to provide a fulcrum for the market’. Cohen lighted Japan’s limited financial power in the region,
(2003) also argues that the euro’s international use and East Asia’s reliance on the US dollar. To cul-
is held back by uncertainties regarding the gov- tivate the yen’s international role, the Japanese
ernance structure, and thus the broader political government has begun to pursue various initiat-
credibility of the whole initiative. ives such as fostering a more attractive short-term
The European Commission (1990: 183) noted money market in Japan and encouraging the growth
a second way in which the euro’s creation might of yen-denominated lending from Japan.
threaten the dollar. It observed that, with no more The internationalization of the yen, however, has
intra-EC foreign exchange intervention necessary, been held back by problems in the Japanese finan-
an estimated $230 billion of the total $400 billion cial system, and by resistance from countries such
of foreign exchange reserves of EC member states as China to the idea of Japanese regional monetary
would no longer be needed, the majority of which leadership (Katada 2002). In the face of this latter
was held in dollars. If these excess reserves were resistance, some officials in Japan and elsewhere in
suddenly sold, Pauly (1992: 108) has predicted, the the region have begun to suggest that East Asian
result would be ‘destabilizing in the extreme’ for monetary co-operation might be fostered more ef-
the dollar. Again, however, European governments fectively on the basis not of the yen but of an Asian
have so far shown little interest in provoking this Currency Unit (ACU). Modelled on the European
kind of monetary confrontation with the United Currency Unit (ECU) that was a precursor to the
States. euro, the ACU could reduce the influence of the
John Ravenhill chap07.tex V1 - July 30, 2007 5:13 P.M. Page 233
dollar by acting as a unit of exchange whose value more or less stable without a dominant monetary 233
was determined by the weighed average of a bas- power. Drawing on the inter-war experience, some
●
ket of the region’s currencies. Although the finance have predicted that increasing global monetary in-
234 be assigned a key role in allocating short-term and be conducted on an unregulated basis. After the
long-term credit at the international level. Today, mid-1970s, the globalization of finance was encour-
●
this world appears to be turned upside down. aged further when many governments dismantled
ERIC HELLEINER
Enormous sums of private capital flow around the their capital control regimes, which had been in
world quite freely on a twenty-four-hour basis. And place throughout the post-war period. The United
the size of these flows dwarfs the lending activities States and United Kingdom led the way, abolishing
of the IMF and World Bank (whose loans have their national capital controls in 1974 and 1979,
become focused exclusively on poor countries). respectively. They were soon followed by other ad-
vanced industrial countries. Indeed, by the 1990s, an
almost fully liberal pattern of financial relations had
Explaining financial globalization emerged among advanced industrial states, giving
market actors a degree of freedom in cross-border
How did we get from there to here? The growth of financial activity unparalleled since the 1920s.
the global telecommunication networks has enabled Poorer countries have generally been less will-
money to be moved around the world much more ing to abolish capital controls altogether. But an
easily than in the past. A number of market devel- increasing number have done so, and others have
opments have also been significant. The dramatic liberalized their existing controls in various ways in
expansion of international trade and multinational this period. Many small poorer states—particularly
corporate activity from the 1960s onwards, for in the Caribbean—have also played a central role
example, generated some of the growing demand in fostering financial globalization by offering their
for private international financial services. The 1973 territories as a regulation-free environment for in-
oil price rise also provided a big boost to the global- ternational financial activity. Places such as the
ization of finance, when private banks took on the Cayman Islands have emerged as very significant
role of recycling the new wealth of oil-producing international banking centres in the world (Palan
countries. Private actors were also encouraged to 2003).
diversify their assets internationally by the in- Why have states largely abandoned the restrict-
creasingly volatile currency environment after the ive Bretton Woods financial regime? The growing
breakdown of the Bretton Woods exchange-rate influence of neo-liberal ideology among financial
system in the early 1970s. The risks and costs of policy-makers played a part. As we saw in the last
international financial activity were also lowered section, neo-liberals were less sympathetic to the
throughout this period by various market innov- Bretton Woods idea that national policy autonomy
ations such as the creation of currency futures, needed to be protected. Where Keynes and White
options, and swaps. had endorsed the use of capital controls for this
In addition to these technological and market de- purpose, many neo-liberals have applauded the fact
velopments, the globalization of finance has been a that international financial markets might impose
product of political choices and state decisions (Hel- an external discipline on governments pursuing
leiner 1994). In particular, it has been encouraged policies that were not ‘sound’ from a neo-liberal
by the fact that states liberalized the tight capital standpoint. Neo-liberals have also criticized the
controls they employed in the early post-war years. role that capital controls might play in interfering
The first step in this direction took place when the with market freedoms and preventing the efficient
British government encouraged the growth of the allocation of capital internationally.
‘euro-market’ in London during the 1960s. In this The liberalization of capital controls has also
financial market, the British government allowed been seen by some policy-makers as a kind of com-
international financial activity in foreign curren- petitive strategy to attract mobile financial business
cies—primarily US dollars in the early years—to and capital to their national territory (Cerny 1994).
John Ravenhill chap07.tex V1 - July 30, 2007 5:13 P.M. Page 235
The British support for the euro markets and their This question has generated much debate in the 235
decision to abolish capital controls in 1979 were field of IPE. Some have argued that financial glob-
●
both designed to help rebuild London’s status as a alization has severely undermined the autonomy of
236 Other scholars suggest that these arguments had the effect of increasing rather than decreasing
about the declining policy autonomy of national the ability of the state to control monetary policy.
●
governments are overstated. We have seen already It enabled the state to regain control over monetary
ERIC HELLEINER
how macroeconomic theory suggests that states can policy by eliminating the overdraft economy that
retain a high degree of monetary policy autonomy had been fostered by the old financial system.
in an atmosphere of capital mobility if they are The importance of exchange-rate policy in
willing to allow the exchange rate to fluctuate (see providing a degree of macroeconomic autonomy
Box 7.3 on page 000). Ton Notermans (2000), for has also been highlighted in the case of capital flight
example, has highlighted how European govern- from Latin-American countries. Jonathan Crystal
ments such as Sweden and Norway succeeded in (1994) argues that much of the capital flight experi-
pursuing expansionary monetary policies through- enced by Latin-American countries in the 1970s and
out the 1970s and 1980s by retaining a floating 1980s could have been avoided through the use of
exchange. Indeed, from Notermans’ perspective, different exchange-rate policies. He demonstrates
these governments eventually abandoned expan- that countries maintaining overvalued exchange
sionary macroeconomic policies not because of the rates have suffered much more serious capital flight
external constraint of financial globalization but than those that have not, and shows how govern-
because of a growing inability to contain infla- ment decisions to maintain overvalued exchange
tion domestically as tripartite collective bargaining rates reflected domestic political constraints rather
structures unravelled and domestic financial innov- than the influence of global financial markets.
ation undermined traditional monetary tools. Other authors suggest that the disciplining effect
Michael Loriaux (1991) puts forward a similar of global finance on governments with high levels
analysis of the well-known experience of Mitter- of government spending, high taxation, or a more
and’s socialist government in France in the early general left-of-centre political orientation has been
1980s. When this government abandoned its uni- exaggerated (see the discussion in Hay, Chapter 10
lateral Keynesian expansion in 1983, many scholars in this volume). Garrett (1995) has highlighted how
pointed to the experience as a confirmation of many OECD governments have been able to use
the new constraints imposed by financial global- borrowing in international capital markets in the
ization. But Loriaux suggests that the constraint last two decades to finance increased government
was a more domestic one. In the new atmosphere spending (see also Swank 2002). In the 1970s, and
of floating exchange rates after 1973, he shows again during much of the 1990s, countries in Latin
how the French government was increasingly un- America and East Asia also found that global fin-
able to pursue expansionary policies because the ancial markets offered funds that enhanced their
inflationary consequences of a devaluation could fiscal autonomy in the short term. That these bor-
not easily be contained. This inability to contain rowing experiences often ended up in debt crises
inflation stemmed from the existence of an ‘over- that undermined policy autonomy was a product
draft economy’, which resulted from the structure of a number of factors often unrelated to financial
of the French domestic financial system. From this globalization, such as unexpected sudden shocks to
perspective, the French state lost control over its the world economy and particular patterns in the
macroeconomic policy not because of financial use of the borrowed funds. More generally, in a
globalization but because its domestic financial detailed study of the preferences of international
system was ill-suited to the macroeconomic im- financial market actors, Mosley (2003) found that
peratives of the new world of floating exchange these actors were concerned primarily with overall
rates. Ironically, as Loriaux points out, the fin- national inflation rates and aggregate levels of fiscal
ancial deregulation and liberalization programme deficits; they did not worry about governments’
launched by the Mitterrand government after 1983 overall level of spending, taxation, or their political
John Ravenhill chap07.tex V1 - July 30, 2007 5:13 P.M. Page 237
orientation when considering investment decisions has gained ‘structural power’ through its new ability 237
(although this result was less true when they con- to exit—or simply to threaten to exit—domestic
●
sidered investments in Southern countries). political settings. This power has been used to
238 ‘child labour, prostitution and domestic violence’ note, push firms to harvest an entire forest for a
increased during the crisis. Other analysts have short-term windfall profit rather than manage the
●
also highlighted how even global financial markets forest in a sustainable fashion over the long term.
ERIC HELLEINER
themselves are made up overwhelmingly of male They conclude: ‘sustainable development is con-
traders and they operate with a culture and dis- cerned with the importance of the future. Financial
course that is hyper-masculinized (McDowell 1997; markets discount the future routinely and heavily’
De Goede 2000). (ibid.: 8). On the other hand, the short-termism of
A final issue that received little attention at the global financial markets should not be overstated,
time of the Bretton Woods conference concerns because one powerful actor in global finance—the
the environmental implications of global financial global insurance sector—does have a longer-term
markets. Scholarship on this topic has been fairly perspective that has led it to play a key role in lobby-
limited within the field of IPE to date, but some ing for action on climate change in order to reduce
interesting themes have been put forward by those the risk of future claims in this area (Paterson 2001).
who have addressed it. In particular, a number of
analysts have suggested that speculative and volatile
international financial flows reward instant eco- KEY POINTS
nomic results and short-term thinking in ways that
● The globalization of financial markets has been
greatly complicate the kind of long-term planning driven not just by technological and market pres-
that is required for the promotion of environ- sures but also by the decisions of states to
mental values. During the East Asian financial crisis, liberalize capital controls that had been popular
for example, governments scrapped environmental in the early post-war years.
programmes and there was an intensification of de- ● A hotly contested subject among IPE scholars
forestation, mining, and other economic activities concerns the question of whether, and to what
that put pressure on natural ecosystems (Durbin extent, global financial markets have eroded the
policy autonomy of national governments.
and Welch 2002). Even two analysts working with
the World Business Council on Sustainable De- ● Financial globalization has also had important
velopment acknowledge that ‘it is clear that the distributive consequences along class, sectoral,
and gender lines. Its environmental implications
globalization of investment flows is speeding the
may also be significant, but they require more
destruction of natural forests’ (Schmidheiny and detailed study.
Zorraquin 1996: 10). International investors, they
Conclusion
The international monetary and financial system principles. Since the early 1970s, the third change
has undergone three important transformations has been under way as a number of the features of
since the late nineteenth century, in response to the Bretton Woods system have unravelled.
changing economic and political conditions. Dur- In some respects, the emerging international
ing the inter-war years, the global integrated mon- monetary and financial system is reminiscent of
etary and financial order of the pre-1914 period the pre-1914 world. The commitment to a liberal
broke down. At the Bretton Woods conference of and integrated global financial order is similar, as is
1944, a new order was built on ‘embedded liberal’ the interest in regional monetary unions (although
John Ravenhill chap07.tex V1 - July 30, 2007 5:13 P.M. Page 239
these unions today are a more ambitious kind than currency zones have also led some to draw parallels 239
the Latin Monetary Union and Scandinavian Mon- to the inter-war years.
●
etary Union). Like their counterparts in that earlier Each of these transformations in the nature of
QUESTIONS
1. Does historical experience suggest that a hegemonic leader is necessary for a stable interna-
tional monetary and financial system to exist?
2. For how much longer will the US dollar remain the world’s key currency?
3. Has the floating exchange-rate system created a kind of ‘casino capitalism’ which is creating an
increasingly unstable global political economy? Should the leading powers attempt to stabilize
the relationship between the values of the major currencies?
4. Has the creation of the euro been a positive move for Europeans? Should other regions emulate
the European example, and are they likely to do so?
5. To what extent has financial globalization undermined the power and policy autonomy of
national governments? Is financial globalization irreversible?
6. How important has financial globalization been in influencing class, sectoral, and gender
relations within countries? What are its environmental consequences?
FURTHER READING
■ Andrews, D. (ed.) (2006), International Monetary Power (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press). A
collection of essays concerning the relationship between state power and international money.
■ Cohen, B. (1998), The Geography of Money (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press). An analysis of
the ways in which national currencies are being challenged in the current age by one of the pioneers
of the field of the political economy of international money.
John Ravenhill chap07.tex V1 - July 30, 2007 5:13 P.M. Page 240
240 ■ Cohen, B. (2004), The Future of Money (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press). A kind of
sequel to his The Geography of Money, which addresses key policy questions relating to the changing
●
nature of money in the contemporary world.
ERIC HELLEINER
■ Eichengreen, B. (1992), Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression: 1919–1939
(Oxford: Oxford University Press). An analysis of international monetary and financial relations
during the inter-war years.
■ Gallarotti, G. (1995), The Anatomy of an International Monetary Regime (New York: Oxford University
Press). A survey of the political economy of the international gold standard.
■ Henning, C. R. (1994), Currencies and Politics in the United States, Germany and Japan (Washington,
DC: Institute for International Economics). An analysis of the politics of exchange-rate policy-making
in the three leading economic powers.
■ Kirshner, J. (1995), Currency and Coercion: The Political Economy of International Monetary Power
(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press). An analysis of how monetary relations are used as an
instrument of state power.
■ (ed.) (2002), Monetary Orders (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press). An edited collection that
highlights the political foundations of national and international monetary systems.
■ Pauly, L. (1997), Who Elected the Bankers? Surveillance and Control in the World Economy (Ithaca,
NY: Cornell University Press). A study of the evolution of global financial and monetary governance
throughout the twentieth century.
■ Porter, T. (2006) Globalization and Finance (Oxford: Polity Press). An overview of the politics and
governance of global financial markets.
■ Strange, S. (1998), Mad Money: When Markets Outgrow Government (Ann Arbor, Mich.: University
of Michigan Press). A survey and critique of the contemporary international monetary and financial
system.
WEB LINKS
● www.attac.org The website of a leading international lobby group pressing for global financial
reform.
● www.bis.org The website of the Bank for International Settlements. The Bank is the ‘central
bankers’ bank’ and it provides detailed analyses of international monetary and financial develop-
ments.
www.oxfordtextbooks.co.uk/orc/ravenhill2e/