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Pharmaceutical Outsourcing Monitor
Introduction
Recent Observations & Trends February 19, 2020
Public Company Performance
In our first Monitor of the new decade, we address a sampling of
CRO
topics we’ve discussed before. It’s hard to group them into one
CDMO
theme. But it’s not hard to note the existence of some persistent
Laboratory Services
areas of concern to everyone involved in drug discovery and
M&A Snapshot
development:
About Fairmount Partners
Fairmount’s Pharma Services Team • The efficacy and efficiency (separate issues) of clinical
research,
Neal McCarthy
• Pharmaceutical pricing,
Managing Director
• The adoption of new technologies,
Michael Martorelli
• Regulatory changes,
Director Emeritus
• International trade conventions,
Roy Delizia
• Job satisfaction, and
Director
• Pre-competitive collaborations.
Cecilia Gleason, Ph.D.
Senior Vice President And based on recent developments relating to the coronavirus,
R.C. Wainwright we are adding one more serious, but hopefully temporary,
Vice President concern to that list.
Nick Lopez It’s also apparent that drug development firms and their
Associate outsourcing partners are becoming more concerned about some
Azfar Merchant new ideas, many of which we address in the pages that follow.
Analyst
Mihir Patel Michael A. Martorelli, CFA
Analyst Director Emeritus
Matt Wittig
Analyst
PHARMACEUTICAL OUTSOURCING MONITOR
Industry Insights│ February 2020
As many readers know, we have been examining the pharmaceutical outsourcing industry since 1993.
There is one phrase that we believe summarizes this industry more than any other: The More Things
Change, The More They Stay The Same. Indeed, we’ve used that phrase in our writings several times over
the past 27 years. Despite the prognostications of some fellow analysts and commentators, we’re quite
prepared to repeat that phrase here at the dawn of a new decade.
We don’t dispute the fact that the drug development industry is doing many things differently than in the
past. And, we acknowledge that outsourcing service providers are more deeply involved in supporting
those efforts than ever before. But, experience has taught us to be skeptical about the nature of the
traditional, cautious, and usually very bureaucratic processes that veteran industry participants use while
trying to implement new ideas and technologies.
We will not make any bold predictions about the imminent adoption of ideas or technologies such as
RWE, remote monitoring, AI, virtual clinical trials, et al. But, we will use this Monitor to comment on
some advancements that drug developers and their outsourcing partners are indeed using to make
incremental changes in the long and still-challenging process of drug development.
First, we present our usual evaluation of selected consolidating transactions across the outsourcing
industry during the past several months.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
Our Comment: As we’ve noted throughout most of the seventeen years that we’ve been publishing this
Monitor, the atmosphere is positive for continued consolidation in almost all segments of the
pharmaceutical outsourcing business. Similarly, the appetite for making investments in such companies
remains strong on the part of both public and private investors.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
One trend the report discussed has some implications for private equity investors and for the providers
of outsourcing services. Specifically, more companies are structuring interesting financial partnerships to
accomplish different objectives, such as:
• Developing new technologies (as opposed to products),
• Making arrangements to deal with reprioritized products (existing drugs that are no longer a
company’s core focus), and
• Setting up specialized manufacturing operations.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
Finally, we note that in early February, we read of yet another unusual type of financial arrangement
between a drug development firm and an outsourcing services provider when Algernon Pharmaceuticals
appointed Novotech as the lead CRO for the upcoming Phase II trial of a candidate for idiopathic
pulmonary fibrosis and chronic cough. That’s not unusual…But what was unusual was the companion
announcement that Novotech was making an investment of CDN$220,000 in the stock of its new client -
Algernon.
Our Comment: We know we sound like a broken record…but we continue to expect further consolidation,
as well as different types of financing arrangements, in the broad drug development industry.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
The FDA still considers the gold standard for approval to be the completion of two randomized, double-
blinded, adequately controlled clinical trials. However, it has recognized some circumstances in which one
large, multicenter trial can be sufficient to justify an approval. It now proposes to change the statutory
language on “substantial evidence of effectiveness” to formally permit the agency to approve a new drug
after only one traditional trial, as long as there is “confirmatory evidence” of the product’s effectiveness
from another appropriate source.
The Guidance notes that there have been many changes in the types of drug development programs
being pursued by sponsors during the past several years. Companies are submitting more marketing
applications for products aimed at serious diseases with no adequate treatment, for drugs designed for
rare diseases with small populations, and for therapies targeted at very specific disease subsets.
The Guidance gives several examples of how a marketing submission can rely on only one adequate and
well-controlled trial plus confirmatory evidence:
• One adequate study on a new indication for an approved drug, as well as existing studies
demonstrating its effectiveness for other closely related indications.
• One adequate study supported by data that provides strong mechanistic support.
• One adequate study supported by additional data from the natural history of the disease.
• One adequate study supported by scientific knowledge about the effectiveness of other drugs in the
same pharmacological class.
Our Comment: The Guidance includes additional language about trial design, trial endpoints, numbers of
trials, and statistical considerations. The deadline for comments is February 18. We look forward to
writing some follow-up analysis and commentary.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
The authors expressed their surprise that the members of this metric-driven industry have not figured
out how to use annual compensation incentives to reduce this rate. They noted that turnover for clinical
monitors in the United States rose from almost 26% from 2014 to 2017 to more than 29% in 2018 (the
last year of complete data). However, outside the USA, the turnover rate declined from almost 23% in
2016 to 14% in 2017 before rising a bit to 16% in 2018.
The report outlined several factors behind the high turnover rate in the United States:
• High performance expectations,
• A steep learning trajectory,
• Disruptive M&A activity,
• Burnout due to long hours and extensive travel, and
• Opportunities for higher compensation and signing bonuses from competitors.
It went on to describe the true costs of turnover before suggesting ways companies can combat frequent
staff resignations.
For another take on this topic, we refer the reader to an October 2019 blog post by Clinipace CEO Jason
Monteleone. (Link here)
Jason acknowledged the difficulties of coping with turnover. But, he also suggested how turnover can
pave the way for promoting talented employees with more potential. His examples from Major League
Baseball told how some managements have coped with voluntary separations and lived to tell about it.
He noted that turnover will continue to occur and that company managements must plan to deal with
the consequences.
Our Comment: Jason was too kind to suggest that turnover can rid a company of an employee with
meaningful, but not necessarily fatal flaws, in their performance or personality. Also, we’ve seen that,
sometimes, turnover can enable a company to add by subtracting.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
To be fair, the Avoca Group did not set out to identify any differences in the attitudes and views about
outsourcing between long-time industry employees and those with fewer years of experience. But, the
firm’s annual survey did uncover some interesting contrasts.
One set of survey questions confirmed some core observations from the past.
• On a satisfaction scale of 1 to 5, employers of sponsors expressed mean values of 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, and
3.9, respectively on the subjects of Value, Quality, Overall Work, and Overall Relationship. Based on
these “outsourcing health indicators,” they’re satisfied, but only at the C to C+ level.
• Employees of outsourcing firms recorded mean values of 4.7, 4.7, 4.8, and 4.8, respectively on those
same four subjective assessments. Based on those same health indicators, they are much more
satisfied with the outsourcing experience.
Drilling down further into these attitudes about the overall outsourcing experience uncovered the never-
before-seen suggestion that one’s answers might have something to do with one’s tenure in the industry.
• Respondents with more than ten years in the industry recorded mean values of 3.2, 3.4, 3.5, and 3.8,
respectively on the four measures noted above.
• Those with fewer than ten years in the business recorded mean values of 4.1, 4.0, 4.2, and 4.1,
respectively on those measures.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
Our Comment: As a member of the oldest third of the “baby boom” generation, we can certainly
understand the attitudinal difference expressed by colleagues in different age brackets. The Avoca Group
and other consultants will certainly be studying this topic in more detail. We’ll be sure to keep abreast of
their results.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
The government’s march-in power dates back to a provision in the 1980 Government Patent Policy Act,
more commonly known as the Bayh-Dole Act. It was passed to update and streamline the rules
concerning the transfer of a government patent to a private contractor. The relevant provision of the U.S.
Code, Title 35 states that if a patented invention is created by an outside contractor and with the help of
federal financing, the agency that provided the financing can, under certain circumstances, march in and
re-take control of the patent, which it could then assign to another party.
Let’s review that phrase again, this time with some added words.
The relevant provision of the U.S. Code, Title 35 states that if a patented invention (such as a drug) is
created by an outside contractor (such as a brand-name drug company) and with the help of federal
financing (from the National Institutes of Health or NIH), the agency that provided the financing (the NIH)
can, under certain circumstances, march in and re-take control of the patent, which it could then assign
to another party (such as another company, possibly even a government-owned one, that would agree to
charge a lower price than the one being charged by the brand-name drug company).
Over the years, patient advocacy groups have petitioned the NIH to exercise its march-in rights in order
to re-gain control of the patents on six high-priced drugs developed with some amount of NIH funding.
Agency officials of both political parties have refused each of those requests, noting that the conditions
under which the NIH could exercise that right do not include merely the fact that a drug has a high price.
Our Comment: If and when a Secretary of Health and Human Services agrees to assert the NIH’s march-in
rights, we suspect the affected drug company would surely pursue legal action to block that decision.
Stay tuned.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
The authors examined the role of public sector funding in the cohort of 248 new molecular entities the
Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved between January 2008 and December 2017:
• They identified 48 drugs whose development had been partially funded by either a government
institution, an independent public sector research foundation, or a not-for-profit hospital/research
university.
• They identified another 14 that had been partially developed by a company spun off from a publicly
supported research group.
• They concluded that 25% of the products approved in the United States from 2008 to 2017
benefited from public sector financial support.
The article noted the results of earlier analyses detailing the extent of public sector funding support for
new molecular entities approved during varying time periods:
The conclusion seems obvious – drug companies have become more reliant than ever on public sector
sources of funding to support their internal research efforts. A corollary argument might suggest that
drug companies should allow more input on pricing decisions from representatives of those public
sources of funding.
Our Comment: The article offered more insights into the topic. Yet, we do not believe this, or any other
single study, can address many nuanced aspects of the relative contributions to drug research made by
public sector institutions and privately financed corporations.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that provisions involving price negotiations with
companies would lower Medicare/Medicaid spending on drugs by about $456 billion over the 2020-2029
period. They would also cause drug companies experiencing reduced revenue levels from their products
to restrain their spending on drug research. Those reductions could result in several dozen fewer drugs
being approved during the next 20 years than would otherwise be anticipated.
Further, the CBO estimated that provisions adding more coverage of dental, vision, and hearing services
to the Medicare/Medicaid population would increase spending on those services by about $358 billion
over the 2020-2029 period.
The Republican-controlled U.S. Senate does not seem likely to take up any version of H.R. 3 any time
soon.
Our Comment: All participants in the drug development industry should remain vigilant about legislative
and/or administrative efforts to regulate drug prices.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
The report listed the ten most-funded start-ups with AI applications for use in the clinical research
segment of drug development:
Berkeley Lights, PathAI, GNS Healthcare, Aetion, Notable Labs, AICure, Emerald Cloud Lab, Synthace,
Deep Intelligent Pharma, and Athelas.
Finally, we must call the reader’s attention to some comments made by an executive at ICON as reported
in the November 20, 2019 issue of Outsourcing-Pharma.com. Speaking at a conference that month,
Andrew Garrett warned against the danger of “going too far” with AI. He urged researchers to be
“healthy cynics” when evaluating that technology and to not be seduced by it. Using an elegant algorithm
on a dataset that may not have been generated in the most appropriate manner could be quite
problematic.
Our Comment: The potential of AI in the drug development industry seems tremendous. But as usual, the
devil is in the details. Here’s hoping the industry can look back on the decade of the 2020s and not regret
its premature fascination with yet another sexy technology.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
• In a column in the December 2019 issue of Applied Clinical Trials, Ken discussed recent research
confirming that patient recruitment and retention are getting more difficult.
Screen failure rates and dropout rates vary among disease categories. But in every category studied and
in each statistical measurement, the experience in 2019 was worse than the one reported in 2012.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
Table 2: Regions ex-US experienced a sharp decline in the average number of study volunteers per site per
clinical trial since 2012
In the studies analyzed by Tufts, investigative research sites in North America showed the ability to
increase the average number of study volunteers enrolled per site. Unfortunately, sites in other regions
of the world were not able to demonstrate a similar increase in that metric.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
Summarizing this experience, Ken Getz noted that “The probability of successfully completing Phase
I to Phase III clinical trials, combining all of these above probabilities, is 13%.”
• The most interesting quote in the article saw IDEA Pharma’s CEO Mike Rea suggesting that “We need
more smaller, signal-seeking studies, and less big dumb studies in Phase II.”
Our Comment: Remember reading at the beginning of this Monitor the favorite phrase…”The more things
change the more they stay the same”?
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
The industry is closely studying that Guidance, in particular a sentence about one type of a
potentially interchangeable biosimilar:
“Consistent with these statements in the guidance and the recommendations in this section, a
comprehensive and robust comparative analytical assessment between a proposed
interchangeable insulin product and the reference product demonstrating that the proposed
interchangeable product is “highly similar” to the reference product with very low residual
uncertainty about immunogenicity generally would mean that an applicant would not need to
conduct a comparative clinical immunogenicity study, e.g., a switching study, to support licensure
under section 351(k)(4) of the PHS Act so long as the statutory criteria for licensure as an
interchangeable are otherwise met.”
• Brexit is Here. On January 31, 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) finally separated from the European
Union (EU). Now negotiators have to begin the hard work of establishing new trade agreements
between the UK and the EU - as well as between the UK and non-EU countries such as the United
States. We still cannot discuss the final arrangements for pharmaceutical sales and clinical trials in
the UK and the EU. We should note, however, that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has
proposed a Medicines and Medical Devices bill that he claims should help the UK’s drug industry
increase its involvement in clinical research. We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: Stay Tuned.
• Safeguarding the Bioeconomy is the title of a 300-page report published in January 2020 by the
National Academy of Sciences. (Link here)
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PHARMACEUTICAL OUTSOURCING MONITOR
Industry Insights│ February 2020
Our Comment: All parties in the drug development enterprise continue to face challenges. But, we’re
encouraged to see so many presentations and discussions of ways to improve that entire system’s
efficiency and efficacy. The Chinese curse of living in “interesting” times seems always to apply to the
participants in this ecosystem.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
100% 100%
75% 75%
50% 50%
25% 25%
0% 0%
Mar-17
Mar-19
Mar-18
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Sep-18
Sep-17
Sep-19
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
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PHARMACEUTICAL OUTSOURCING MONITOR
Industry Insights│ February 2020
45% 45%
30% 30%
15% 15%
0% 0%
Mar-17
Mar-19
Mar-18
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Sep-18
Sep-17
Sep-19
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Source: Capital IQ Public Lab Services (42%) S&P 500 Index (44%)
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
Number of Transactions
42 43 16.0x
40 40 18.0x 46
40 1 6 .4x 38 1 6 .5x
39
1 5 .3x 16.0x 40 36 14.0x
1 4 .6x 1 4 .5x
30 1 6 .3x
26
14.0x 30 12.0x
20 23 1 2 .1x
20 1 2 .1x 1 1 .8x
12.0x 20 10.0x
1 0 .3x 1 0 .3x
1 0 .1x 9 .9x
10 10.0x 10 8.0x
8 .9x
0 8.0x 0 6.0x
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Actual Actual
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
Nordic Capital, ▪ Nordic Capital, Astorg, and Novo Holdings A/S to (re-)invest in
eResearch
Oct-19 Astorg Partners, ERT, a provider of clinical trials data and technology solutions,
Technology
Novo Holdings for future growth
▪ Cato Research, backed by Water Street Healthcare Partners
Oct-19 SMS-oncology Cato Research and JLL Partners, acquires SMS Oncology, a European full-
service CRO dedicated exclusively to oncology
Symphony ▪ ICON plc (NASDAQ:ICLR) boosts its hybrid clinical trial and site
Oct-19 Clinical ICON plc support services with the acquisition of Symphony Clinical
Research Research, a provider of in-home and alternate site services
Amarex
NSF ▪ Global public health organization NSF International acquires
Oct-19 Clinical
International Amarex Clinical Research, a full-service CRO
Research
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
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PHARMACEUTICAL OUTSOURCING MONITOR
Industry Insights│ February 2020
142 33 20
Fairmount team Fairmount has closed Fairmount has closed
has completed 33 Pharma Services M&A deals with
142 Pharma Services M&A transactions buyers and sellers
M&A transactions in the past 4 years across 20 countries
Fairmount Partners is an independent investment bank focused on the needs of middle market and emerging
growth companies. It provides a range of investment banking and capital advisory services, including merger
and acquisition advisory, capital raising, fairness opinions, valuations and strategic advisory. The firm focuses its
activities on targeted industries in which it has a record of experience and success. While headquartered in
suburban Philadelphia, Fairmount works with companies across the globe.
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Industry Insights│ February 2020
The enclosed commentary is neither an offer to sell nor an offer to buy securities, nor is it a form of investment recommendation. The information contained herein has been
obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Fairmount Partners and/or its employees may have a position in
the securities of the companies described herein. Available information supporting this report will be furnished upon request. Fairmount Partners may seek to provide
corporate finance services for the companies mentioned herein.
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