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© EuroJournals Publishing, Inc. 2010

http://www.eurojournals.com/finance.htm

An Application of Power Law

Chia-Sheng Hung

Department of Accounting and Information Science

Nan Hua University, ChiayiCounty, Taiwan, R.O.C

E-mail: eco0303@gmail.com

Yu-Chung Hung

Department of Accounting and Information Technology

National Chung Cheng university, ChiayiCounty

Taiwan, R.O.C

E-mail: actych@ccu.edu.tw

Abstract

employees are effective and efficient. This paper first takes advantage of Power law to

examine the distributions of measures and point out which measures are more

discriminating. Comparing with other financial measures, our empirical results indicate that

ROA is more discriminating. In addition, ROA is more discriminating over time. Hence,

ROA is a good performance measures.

JEL Classification Code: M10

1. Introduction

Resources are limited. As a result, people strive to conserve the economic resources and make sure that

they are used effectively. In order to reach the desired results, organizations evaluate performance and

establish parameters within programs, investments, and acquisitions. Although the numbers of

measures are not directly connected to improving performance, they represent the means to achieve the

ultimate purpose. Hence, performance measures play the important role to provide information and

guide the management/investors to draw strategies and arrange the portfolio.

Within an organization, a good performance measure can help organization to evaluate

performance, control budget, motivate employees and so on. A good performance measure can not

only provide a common language for communication, but also provide a way to see if the strategy is

working1. If a measure is sensitive with time, it can not provide the true information for the top

management. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the sensitivity with time of performance

measures by take advantage of Power law.

The Power law is widely recognized as a universal law in describing many physical phenomena

and drafted by Pareto (1897). Pareto (1897) first report on the individual income distribution and he

1

Enterprise Architecture Program (2007). Treasury IT Performance Measures Guide. U.S. Department of the Treasury.

May 2007.

131 International Research Journal of Finance and Economics - Issue 46 (2010)

showed that the probability density distribution of income follows a power law distribution in the high-

income range. The range of individual income is reported to be approximated by a log normal

distribution or an exponential distribution (Montroll and Shlesinger, 1983; Aoyama et al., 2000;

Dragulescu and Yakovenko, 2001) Zipf (1949) extend the use of Power law beyond the physical

sciences and showed the law was applicable to the social science. Prior studies have shown the

financial variables such as firm size, stock returns, and net income which were fit for the Power law

(Axtell, 2001; Gabaix et al., 2003; Okuyama et al., 1999). By estimating the parameter of Power law,

we can examine the trends of performance measures and find which measure is more sensitive with

time.

Section 2 provides a review of the literature on Power law and its extension. Section 3 presents

the research model and methodology. The sample and empirical results are discussed in Section 4.

Section 5 presents the sensitivity analysis and conclusions respectively.

2. Literature review

The Power law is widely recognized as a universal law in describing many physical phenomena and

drafted by Pareto (1897). Pareto (1897) first report on the individual income distribution and he

showed that the probability density distribution of income follows a Power law distribution in the high-

income range. Zipf (1949) extended the use of the Power law beyond the physical sciences and showed

that the law was applicable to the social sciences. The Power law can be applied to any item that can be

ranked by size. The Power law is stated as:

( Size) i * ( Rank ) iq = Cons tan t

The exponent “q” is known as the Power law exponent or Zipf’s parameter. Zipf law is a

special case of Power law when the exponent “q” is equal to 1. There are several literatures shows that

the distribution of financial variables follows Power law. For examples, Axtell (2001) demonstrate the

firm size follows Power law. Gabaix et al. (2003) and Okuyama et al. (1999) report respectively the

stock returns and net income follow Power law. Some similar results are reported in Ramsden and

Kiss-Haypal (2000) and Stanley et al. (1995) in terms of assets and sales. Some literatures employ the

Power law to model the growth of firms, they show the distribution of the logarithm of growth rates

has an exponential form and the fluctuations in the growth rates scale with the firm size (Stanley et al.,

1996; Buldyrev et al., 1997; and Mizuno et al., 2004). There are some applications of Power law

presented in other fields of researches. Bosker, et al. (2008), Chen and Zhou (2004) and Lucien and

Blumenfeld-Lieberthal (2007) employ the Power law to model the city size and Mansilla et al. (2007)

apply Power law to the behavior of journal impact factors.

Naldi (2003) derive the relationship between concentration indices and Zipf’s parameter to

describe the unevenness in economics. Naldi evaluated the sensitivity of the concentration indices,

including Gini, Bonferroni and Amato, and the Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI), to changes in

Zipf’s parameter to assess the resolution capabilities of the concentration indices. From his results, the

Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI) is the most sensitive index in contexts where Zipf’s law applies.

Balakrishnan et al. (2008) model the distribution of daily trading volume across all stocks in the U.S.

market and in each of the three U. S. exchanges as a Power law function. They found the Power law

exponent systematically increases with time and the exponents evolve for the market and for each of

the exchanges over the years 1962 to 2005. Their finding indicates that the trading is becoming

increasingly concentrated in a subset of stocks rather than in all stocks. Alegria and Schaeck (2008)

investigate the effect of changes in Zipf’s exponent and the bank sizes on the behavior of different

concentration indices, such as 3-bank concentration ratio, the Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI) and

the top 5%-concentration ratio. Alegria and Schaeck’s works investigate the elasticity of the three

concentration indices to changes in sample size and Zipf’s exponent and they found the top 5%-

concentration ratio is least sensitive to changes in sample size and Zipf’s exponent. Hence, the top 5%-

concentration ratio is the most suitable index for estimating the concentration of banking systems.

International Research Journal of Finance and Economics - Issue 46 (2010) 132

Zipf (1949) is the first work that viewed language as a “tool” that is shaped by its “jobs” in

human society. Zipf proposed that the behaviors which are “useful” are performed frequently, and

frequent behaviors become quicker and easier to perform. Basing on the Zipf (1949)’s finding,

examined the relationship between rank and frequency of various linguistic and social units and

constructions. Huang et al. (2008) develop an innovative fraud detection mechanism on the basis of

Zipf’s law to assist auditors in reviewing the overwhelming volumes of datasets and identifying any

potential fraud records. The results demonstrate that Zipf analysis can assist auditors to locate the

source of suspicion and future enhances the resulting audit processes.

Basically, the performance indicators include accounting performance indicators and market

performance indicators (Lee, 2006). The accounting performance refers to the profitability and cost

measures. This paper focuses on the profitability measures. By following Edvinsson and Malone

(1997), we employ return to assets (denoted as ROA), the ratio of operating income to sales (denoted

as OITS), and the ratio of net assets value to assets (denoted as NAVT) as performance measures. This

paper examines the financial measures on banking industry in Taiwan. The data used in this paper are

mainly from the Bureau of Monetary Affairs, Financial Supervisory Commission in Taiwan. These

data include 35 banks. In order to avoid the effects of financial tsunami on the empirical results, the

empirical period is from 1992 to 2005.

In this section, we model the distribution of the performance measure as a Power law function and

estimate the value of the Power law exponent. In addition, we investigate if the Power law exponent

fluctuates over time, and if so, the implications of such change on the enterprises’ booms or slumps are

not in concert at the same time.

The Power law is stated as:

( Size) it * ( Rank ) itqt = Cons tan t t (Model 1)

The exponent “q” is known as the Power law exponent or Zipf’s parameter. Zipf law is a

special case of Power law when the exponent “q” is equal to 1. If the q increases of a performance

measure, it represents that the distribution of data becomes more concentrated. Hence, it will be more

difficult to discriminate the performance of agents. The subscriptions of i and t denote the firm i and

period t . Equation (1) can be stated as log-form:

log(Size) it + q log( Rank ) it = log(Cons tan t t ) (Model 2)

So we can obtain the following equation:

log(Size) it = cons tan t t − qt log( Rank ) it (Model 3)

By using OLS, we can estimate the value of qt for every single period. Hence, we will have t

values of the exponent “ q ”. The estimated exponents “ q ” of performance measures are shown in

Table 1. We can find that the Power law exponents of ROA fluctuate from -1.288 to -0.151. Only the

exponent of year 2005 is not significantly different from zero. The Power law exponents of OITS are

between -4.595 and -0.981. The exponents of year 2000 to 2005, except year 2004, are not

significantly different from zero. The Power law exponents of NAVT fluctuate from -1.082 to -0.666.

Every Power exponents of NAVT is significantly different from zero. The exponents of year 1992 to

2003 are close to 1. This phenomenon indicates that Zipf law stands in this period for NAVT. The

average exponents of ROA, OITS, and NAVT are -0.515, -0.782, and -0.943. Hence, the distribution of

NAVT is more concentrated than the other two measures’ distributions. Meanwhile, it is easier to use

ROA to discriminate bank’s performance.

133 International Research Journal of Finance and Economics - Issue 46 (2010)

year R_Square q R_Square R_Square

-1.288*** -0.981*** -1.082***

1992 0.780 0.647 0.723

(-11.039) (-8.412) (-9.999)

-1.066*** -0.672*** -1.071***

1993 0.899 0.923 0.853

(-16.876) (-21.015) (-15.065)

-0.814*** -0.654*** -1.009***

1994 0.857 0.609 0.916

(-15.100) (-7.755) (-20.685)

-0.128*** -0.329*** -0.986***

1995 0.769 0.101 0.936

(-11.006) (-2.275) (-23.912)

-1.117*** -0.855*** -0.965***

1996 0.897 0.378 0.924

(-16.871) (-4.973) (-21.838)

-0.655*** -0.599*** -0.882***

1997 0.796 0.373 0.888

(-12.224) (-4.860) (-17.648)

-0.378*** -0.474*** -0.926***

1998 0.424 0.155 0.858

(-5.455) (-2.888) (-15.604)

-0.351*** -0.349*** -0.917***

1999 0.463 0.110 0.864

(-5.962) (-2.443) (-15.990)

-0.189** -0.291 -0.934***

2000 0.094 0.012 0.867

(-2.017) (-1.221) (-16.183)

-0.277** -0.264 -0.958***

2001 0.072 0.026 0.876

(-2.001) (-1.431) (-16.832)

-0.273*** -0.313 -1.080***

2002 0.099 0.022 0.849

(-2.295) (-1.367) (-14.834)

-0.340*** -0.292* -1.019***

2003 0.293 0.055 0.910

(-4.147) (-1.808) (-19.826)

-0.151*** -4.595*** -0.700***

2004 0.630 0.362 0.419

(-7.995) (-4.693) (-5.256)

-0.180 -0.282 -0.666***

2005 0.045 0.020 0.925

(-1.643) (-1.311) (-21.089)

Average -0.515 -0.782 -0.943

PS: the values in parentheses are t-value; *, ** and *** represent the significant level 0.1, 0.05 and 0.01, respectively.

Table 2 shows the Power law exponents of the growth rates of performance measures. The

results are similar to the table 1. The average exponents of growth rate of ROA, growth rate of OITS,

and growth rate of NAVT are -0.333, -0.916, and -0.804. The average exponents of Hence, the

distribution of growth rate of OITS is more concentrated than the other two growth rates’ distributions.

The absolute value of average exponents of growth rate of ROA is smaller than two other growth rates’

absolute values. It is easier to use growth rate of ROA to discriminate bank’s growth.

Figure 1 and figure 2 demonstrate the trends of various exponents. We can see that the

exponents of OITS and its growth rate are outliers in year 2004. This phenomenon may be caused by

the second financial reform spurred by Taiwan government. Several banks merged and some banks

suffered serious loss and failed in 2004. Hence, the operating income fluctuated furiously.

International Research Journal of Finance and Economics - Issue 46 (2010) 134

Table 2: The Power law exponents ( q ) of performance growth rate

of ROA of OITS of NAVT

year R_Square q R_Square R_Square

-0.392*** -0.956*** -1.165***

1992 0.507 0.457 0.836

(-5.907) (-5.744) (-13.962)

-0.626*** -1.384*** -0.958***

1993 0.802 0.647 0.490

(-11.444) (-8.178) (-6.122)

-0.472*** -0.410*** -1.084***

1994 0.653 0.131 0.849

(-7.829) (-2.532) (-14.869)

-0.156 -0.302 -0.508***

1995 0.026 0.042 0.156

(-1.140) (-1.616) (-2.862)

-0.710*** -0.710*** -1.031***

1996 0.789 0.794 0.929

(-11.789) (-11.789) (-22.593)

-0.225*** -0.320 -0.856***

1997 0.197 0.013 0.685

(-3.214) (-1.229) (-9.255)

-0.222*** -0.317 -0.527***

1998 0.223 0.036 0.371

(-3.448) (-1.550) (-4.903)

-0.549*** -0.445* -0.679***

1999 0.727 0.057 0.443

(-10.373) (-1.852) (-5.729)

-0.062 -0.305 -0.361***

2000 0.031 0.010 0.104

(-1.510) (-1.193) (-2.380)

-0.169 -0.0306 -0.403***

2001 0.035 0.020 0.084

(-1.556) ()-1.342 (-2.159)

-0.316*** -0.519** -0.390***

2002 0.262 0.073 0.150

(-3.851) (-2.015) (-2.805)

-0.428*** -0.640*** -1.022***

2003 0.239 0.181 0.439

(-3.639) (-3.100) (-5.609)

-0.123*** -6.097*** -1.861***

2004 0.453 0.140 0.690

(-5.629) (-2.647) (-9.134)

-0.213*** -0.391* -0.417***

2005 0.163 0.048 0.171

(-2.834) (-1.681) (-2.903)

Average -0.333 -0.916 -0.804

PS: the values in parentheses are t-value; *, ** and *** represent the significant level 0.1, 0.05 and 0.01, respectively.

1

0

-11990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

-2

-3

-4

-5

Year

135 International Research Journal of Finance and Economics - Issue 46 (2010)

Figure 2: The Power law exponents of performance growth rates

0

-11990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

-7

In order to examine the time trends of Power law exponents, we regress the exponents against

calendar time. The following equation expresses this regression.

qt = α + βt (Model 4)

Where α is the constant term and β is the coefficient of variable t . We presume 1992 as the

base year, so t =1 represents year 1992, and t =2 represents year 1993, and so on. If β is not

significantly differently from zero, we can know that the Power law exponent is stable over time. If

not, we can infer the qt is increasing or decreasing over time by observing the sign of β .

Table 3 shows the empirical results of equation 4. The coefficients ( β ) of ROA, growth rate of

ROA and NAVT are significantly positive, the coefficients are 0.073, 0.022, and 0.019 respectively.

These positive coefficients represent that the absolute values of the exponents of these three variables

are decreasing over time. The differences of these measures between banks decreased gradually.

Hence, these variables are more and more discriminating when evaluating bank’s performance. In

summary, we find that ROA/growth rate of ROA are more discriminating than other performance

(growth) measures when evaluating bank’s performance/growth. In addition, ROA is more

discriminating as a performance measure over time.

-146.976*** 0.073***

ROA 0.558

(-4.185) (4.171)

-44.269* 0.022*

the growth rate of ROA 0.145

(-1.805) (1.792)

116.457 -0.059

OITS -0.031

(0.772) (-0.777)

2945.646 -1.476

the growth rate of OITS 0.064

(1.374) (-1.376)

-38.844** 0.019**

NAVT 0.343

(-2.862) (2.793)

-25.612 0.012

The growth rate of NAVT -0.067

(-0.444) (0.43)

ps: *, ** and *** represent the significant level 0.1, 0.05 and 0.01 respectively.

International Research Journal of Finance and Economics - Issue 46 (2010) 136

Fundamental purpose behind measures is to improve performance. A good performance measure can

help organization to know where to improve, where to allocate or re-allocate money and people, and

which programs, methods, or employees are effective and efficient. This paper first takes advantage of

Power law to examine the distributions of measures and point out which measures are more

discriminating. Comparing with other financial measures, our empirical results indicate that ROA is

more discriminating. In addition, ROA is more discriminating over time. Hence, ROA is a good

performance measures.

There are two streams of performance indicators employed in prior researches. They are

accounting performance indicators and market performance indicators. In addition, the accounting

performance refers to the profitability and cost measures. This paper only focuses on three profitability

measures and their growth rates. For future extension, we can estimate the exponents of various

measures and find the discriminating indicator.

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