Real Sales in March 2019

Retailers confirmed The Retail Sales Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia in March 2019 revealed stronger
stronger sales growth in real sales performance in March 2019, as confirmed by a higher growth of Real Sales Index (RSI)
March 2019. to 10.1% (yoy) from 9.1% (yoy) in February 2019, reaching a level of 230.2 in the reporting period
(Graph 1 and Graph 2). By commodity, the main drivers of faster sales growth were Clothing
(primarily apparel, footwear and accessories) as well as Automotive Spare Parts and Accessories,
which accelerated respectively to 41.2% (yoy) and 20.7% (yoy) from 33.7% (yoy) and 20.7% (yoy)
the month earlier.

Graph 1 Real Retail Sales Index Graph 2 Monthly and Annual Real Sales Growth (%)

Retail Sales Survey 1

 Real Sales Expectations for April 2019
In April 2019, retailers expected to maintain positive sales growth despite moderating on
In April 2019, retailers the previous period. Such developments were corroborated by slower RSI growth, namely falling
expected to maintain to 5.7% (yoy) from 10.1% (yoy) in March 2019. Nevertheless, respondents predicted RSI growth in
positive sales growth.
April 2019 to outpace that recorded in the same period one year ago at 4.1% (yoy) (Graph 2).
Again, retailers anticipated Clothing (apparel) to drive retail sales along with Automotive Spare
Parts and Accessories, forecasted to grow 22.0% (yoy) and 15.5% (yoy) respectively (Graph 3).

Graph 3 Real Sales Growth of Commodity Groups (%, yoy)

Regional Real Sales

Regionally, retailers in most of the surveyed cities confirmed positive RSI growth in March
Retailers in most 2019, led by Surabaya (50.8% yoy) followed by Manado (34% yoy). Nevertheless, retailers
surveyed cities confirmed attributed retreating national sales performance in April 2019 to sales contractions predicted in
positive real sales
several cities, including Bandung (-9.7% yoy) and Denpasar (-3.1% yoy). In contrast, respondents
growth.
in a number of cities expected expansive growth, such as Surabaya (32.5% yoy) and Makassar
(42.2% yoy) (Figure 1).

Figure 1 April 2019 Real Sales Growth* by Region (%, yoy)

*preliminary result

Retail Sales Survey 2


Retailers predicted a
build-up of inflationary
pressures in the next 3
months.
Retailers predicted flatter
sales performance in June
and September 2019.
Retail Sales Survey
Price Expectations for the Upcoming 3 and 6 Months
Retailers predicted a build-up of inflationary pressures in the next 3 months (June 2019)
as supply slowly returns to normal after Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr, followed by milder price
pressures in the next 6 months (September 2019). This was indicated by an uptick in the 3-month
Price Expectations Index (PEI) to 174.6 from a level of 153.9 the month earlier (Graph 5).
Thereafter, respondents expected weaker inflationary pressures in September 2019, with the 6-
month PEI dropping to 152.8 from 155.3 in the previous period (Graph 6).
Graph 5 Price Expectations Index for the Upcoming Three Graph 6 Price Expectations Index for the Upcoming Six Months
Months
Sales Expectations for the Upcoming 3 and 6 Months
Retailers predicted flatter sales performance in the next 3 and 6 months (June and
September 2019), as reflected by respective declines in the next 3 and 6-month Sales
Expectations Indexes (SEI) to 154.9 from 155.1 the month earlier (Graph 7). Respondents
expected sales performance to retreat after the peak sales period during Ramadan in May and
Eid-ul-Fitr at the beginning of June 2019 despite rising demand during the transition into the
new academic year. Respondents also predicted lower sales in the next 6-month sales, as
indicated by deacreasing 6-month Sales Expectations Indexes (SEI) to 149.9 from 151.3 the
month earlier.
Graph 7 Sales Expectations Index for the Upcoming Three and Six Months
3
 Appendix

Graph 8 Real Sales Growth of Motor Vehicles Part & Accessories Graph 9 Real Sales Growth of Food, Beverages
Groups and Tobacco Groups

Graph 10 Real Sales Growth of Automotive Fuels Commodity Groups Graph 11 Real Sales Growth of Information & Communication Equipment
Groups

Graph 12 Real Sales Growth of Other Household Equipment Graph 13 Real Sales Growth of Cultural and Recreation Goods
Commodity Groups

Graph 14 Real Sales Growth of Other Goods Graph 15 Real Sales Growth of Clothing

Retail Sales Survey 4

 Table 1 Real Sales Index by Categories

2017 2018 2019 Changes

DESCRIPTION
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr* Mar Apr*
Motor vehicles part and Accessories 127.1 119.3 119.0 120.3 122.2 130.9 127.0 128.5 128.4 127.7 129.5 130.7 131.8 130.6 132.0 130.4 132.3 132.2 129.0 128.5 130.1 130.4 132.1 135.5 144.2 148.9 159.3 150.5 10.4 (8.8)

Food, Beverages, and Tobacco 209.4 202.0 210.1 215.6 227.4 244.8 221.0 214.0 212.2 214.1 218.6 235.1 213.6 212.0 224.5 232.1 253.1 260.9 232.0 231.3 225.1 221.0 226.7 256.5 232.6 234.9 248.8 245.2 13.9 (3.7)

Automotive Fuels 76.4 76.3 77.9 79.8 80.8 77.2 77.7 81.0 78.7 81.7 81.8 83.5 79.4 75.8 82.4 88.9 88.2 85.4 89.7 90.9 92.5 96.3 96.6 95.0 88.3 84.5 85.6 90.1 1.1 4.5

Information & Communication Equipment 437.6 404.8 419.0 411.4 404.8 421.1 395.9 367.4 374.3 370.9 388.2 406.0 382.0 357.2 350.8 359.1 366.2 360.6 340.8 318.8 323.1 312.9 330.2 364.3 327.7 326.2 328.8 328.5 2.6 (0.3)

Other Household Equipment 172.2 162.1 162.0 159.4 160.4 172.6 157.8 151.4 153.2 154.3 154.5 159.9 155.0 155.4 162.1 163.3 171.0 171.6 166.2 169.3 165.6 166.1 164.0 173.4 167.7 165.1 175.3 180.2 10.2 4.9

Cultural and Recreation Goods 108.9 104.0 107.5 112.4 116.7 119.4 116.8 117.6 113.3 113.9 111.5 117.4 112.3 109.8 109.8 118.3 117.2 123.8 123.3 121.6 118.1 122.5 123.7 134.3 136.4 139.0 125.7 127.7 (13.3) 2.0

Other Goods 129.7 118.3 126.8 127.4 142.0 197.9 146.7 138.7 132.6 134.2 133.8 142.2 136.1 137.4 152.2 154.7 191.6 213.9 184.6 189.4 189.6 193.6 202.3 210.8 205.6 194.5 216.1 206.1 21.6 (10.0)

- o/w Clothing 135.3 125.2 130.3 131.7 143.5 209.6 154.5 144.1 139.4 139.0 139.3 146.5 142.0 138.0 140.7 144.9 167.2 186.2 174.6 173.4 178.4 173.2 179.7 187.3 181.6 184.5 198.6 176.8 14.1 (21.9)

TOTAL INDEX 207.2 197.1 204.0 206.5 214.3 232.4 209.9 202.1 201.2 202.3 206.7 219.5 203.5 200.0 209.1 215.0 232.0 237.8 216.0 214.3 210.8 208.1 213.7 236.3 218.1 218.2 230.2 227.4 12.0 (2.8)

*) preliminary figure

Table 2 Real Sales Index Growth (year on year, %)

2017 2018 2019 Changes

DESCRIPTION
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr* Mar Apr*
Motor vehicles part and Accessories 16.6 10.9 8.3 9.2 8.7 4.6 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 -0.4 -3.1 3.7 9.5 11.0 8.4 8.3 1.1 1.6 0.1 1.3 2.1 2.0 3.7 9.4 14.0 20.7 15.5 6.7 (5.2)

Food, Beverages, and Tobacco 7.3 5.1 7.1 8.4 9.7 10.5 -0.3 7.9 7.6 9.9 7.8 8.1 2.0 4.9 6.8 7.7 11.3 6.6 5.0 8.1 6.1 3.3 3.7 9.1 8.9 10.8 10.9 5.6 0.1 (5.2)

Automotive Fuels -9.9 -10.2 -10.7 -6.4 -0.8 1.0 -1.2 3.4 -0.1 4.3 5.8 4.3 4.0 -0.7 5.9 11.5 9.3 10.7 15.4 12.2 17.5 17.9 18.0 13.7 11.1 11.5 3.9 1.3 (7.6) (2.6)

Information & Communication Equipment 12.5 6.1 2.3 0.2 -3.8 -0.4 -2.5 -7.7 -6.5 -11.9 -4.8 -11.4 -12.7 -11.7 -16.3 -12.7 -9.5 -14.4 -13.9 -13.2 -13.7 -15.7 -15.0 -10.3 -14.2 -8.7 -6.3 -8.5 2.4 (2.2)

Other Household Equipment 2.2 1.4 1.2 -4.6 -7.5 -4.9 -17.2 -9.7 -9.7 -9.5 -10.5 -13.5 -10.0 -4.1 0.1 2.4 6.7 -0.5 5.3 11.8 8.1 7.7 6.2 8.4 8.2 6.2 8.2 10.3 1.9 2.2

Cultural and Recreation Goods 7.8 2.0 3.5 4.6 10.3 3.0 4.6 3.7 -1.7 0.9 -1.8 0.3 3.1 5.6 2.2 5.2 0.4 3.7 5.6 3.4 4.3 7.5 10.9 14.4 21.5 26.5 14.5 8.0 (12.1) (6.5)

Other Goods -14.4 -12.4 -9.2 -8.8 -4.0 5.3 -16.0 -2.8 -7.3 -4.8 -4.2 -6.2 5.0 16.2 20.0 21.4 34.9 8.1 25.9 36.5 43.0 44.3 51.2 48.3 51.1 41.6 42.0 33.2 0.4 (8.8)

- o/w Clothing -8.7 -4.7 -3.3 -3.2 -0.6 15.7 -9.3 3.0 -1.6 0.0 2.2 -1.7 5.0 10.2 7.9 10.0 16.5 -11.2 13.0 20.4 28.1 24.6 29.0 27.9 27.9 33.7 41.2 22.0 7.4 (19.2)

TOTAL INDEX 6.3 3.7 4.2 4.2 4.3 6.3 -3.3 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.5 0.7 -1.8 1.5 2.5 4.1 8.3 2.3 2.9 6.1 4.8 2.9 3.4 7.7 7.2 9.1 10.1 5.7 1.0 (4.3)

*) preliminary figure

Table 3 Real Sales Index Growth (month to month, %)

2017 2018 2019 Changes

DESCRIPTION
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr* Mar Apr*
Motor vehicles part and Accessories -5.8 -6.2 -0.3 1.1 1.6 7.1 -3.0 1.2 -0.1 -0.5 1.4 1.0 0.9 -0.9 1.1 -1.2 1.5 0.0 -2.4 -0.4 1.2 0.2 1.3 2.6 6.4 3.3 7.0 -5.5 3.7 (12.5)

Food, Beverages, and Tobacco -3.7 -3.5 4.0 2.6 5.5 7.6 -9.7 -3.2 -0.8 0.9 2.1 7.5 -9.1 -0.8 5.9 3.4 9.0 3.1 -11.1 -0.3 -2.7 -1.8 2.6 13.1 -9.3 1.0 5.9 -1.5 5.0 (7.4)

Automotive Fuels -4.6 -0.1 2.0 2.4 1.3 -4.4 0.7 4.3 -2.9 3.8 0.2 2.1 -4.9 -4.6 8.8 7.9 -0.8 -3.2 5.0 1.4 1.7 4.2 0.2 -1.6 -7.1 -4.3 1.3 5.2 5.6 3.9

Information & Communication Equipment -4.5 -7.5 3.5 -1.8 -1.6 4.0 -6.0 -7.2 1.9 -0.9 4.7 4.6 -5.9 -6.5 -1.8 2.4 2.0 -1.5 -5.5 -6.5 1.3 -3.2 5.5 10.3 -10.0 -0.5 0.8 -0.1 1.3 (0.9)

Other Household Equipment -6.9 -5.9 -0.1 -1.6 0.6 7.6 -8.6 -4.0 1.1 0.7 0.1 3.5 -3.1 0.3 4.3 0.8 4.7 0.4 -3.2 1.9 -2.2 0.3 -1.3 5.7 -3.3 -1.5 6.2 2.8 7.7 (3.4)

Cultural and Recreation Goods -6.9 -4.5 3.4 4.6 3.8 2.3 -2.2 0.7 -3.7 0.5 -2.1 5.2 -4.3 -2.2 0.0 7.7 -0.9 5.6 -0.4 -1.3 -2.9 3.7 1.0 8.6 1.6 1.9 -9.5 1.6 (11.4) 11.1

Other Goods -14.5 -8.8 7.2 0.5 11.4 39.3 -25.9 -5.4 -4.4 1.2 -0.3 6.3 -4.3 0.9 10.8 1.7 23.8 11.6 -13.7 2.6 0.1 2.1 4.5 4.2 -2.5 -5.4 11.1 -4.6 16.5 (15.7)

- o/w Clothing -9.2 -7.5 4.1 1.1 8.9 46.1 -26.3 -6.8 -3.3 -0.3 0.2 5.2 -3.0 -2.9 2.0 3.0 15.4 11.4 -6.2 -0.7 2.9 -3.0 3.8 4.2 -3.0 1.6 7.7 -11.0 6.0 (18.7)

TOTAL INDEX -4.9 -4.9 3.5 1.2 3.8 8.5 -9.7 -3.8 -0.4 0.6 2.2 6.2 -7.3 -1.7 4.5 2.8 7.9 2.5 -9.2 -0.8 -1.6 -1.3 2.7 10.6 -7.7 0.0 5.5 -1.2 5.4 (6.7)

*) preliminary figure

Table 4 Quarterly Real Sales Index Growth (year on year, %)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

DESCRIPTION
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I Q I- Q IV
Motor vehicles part and Accessories 2.0 -4.0 12.4 11.2 1.6 -9.0 -7.9 -5.4 0.5 17.7 23.9 26.0 11.9 7.5 1.4 -0.6 8.0 5.9 1.0 2.6 14.7
Food, Beverages, and Tobacco 17.5 15.3 18.2 12.6 22.0 30.4 9.1 13.3 11.5 12.0 8.8 7.7 6.5 9.5 5.1 8.6 4.6 8.5 6.4 5.4 10.2
Automotive Fuels 15.8 13.4 4.1 5.6 -18.0 -18.5 -26.8 -28.6 -14.3 -21.2 -14.5 -11.9 -10.3 -2.1 0.7 4.8 3.0 10.5 15.0 16.5 8.8
Information & Communication Equipment 41.4 30.8 34.6 31.9 30.3 32.5 23.8 22.4 33.6 34.0 22.9 21.1 7.0 -1.3 -5.6 -9.4 -13.6 -12.2 -13.6 -13.6 -9.7
Other Household Equipment 9.4 -10.0 -1.1 -12.8 0.4 12.0 -0.4 6.9 6.4 15.9 9.8 8.2 1.6 -5.7 -12.2 -11.2 -4.7 2.9 8.4 7.4 7.5
Cultural and Recreation Goods 10.8 -9.4 1.4 -8.3 -2.9 5.0 -11.4 -12.0 -2.7 3.6 8.3 11.6 4.4 6.0 2.2 -0.2 3.6 3.1 4.4 11.0 20.8
Other Goods 37.8 20.0 2.1 6.7 -2.6 1.6 -2.0 -7.3 -11.0 -6.8 -11.7 -4.8 -12.0 -2.5 -8.7 -5.1 13.7 21.5 35.1 47.9 44.9
- o/w Clothing 27.8 16.5 -3.0 8.5 -1.1 -5.8 -7.2 -13.1 -14.5 -9.7 -13.3 -4.5 -5.6 4.0 -2.6 0.2 7.7 5.1 20.5 27.2 34.3
TOTAL INDEX 19.9 13.1 15.3 10.9 15.5 22.0 7.1 9.9 11.5 13.7 9.4 9.5 4.8 4.9 0.2 1.8 0.7 4.9 4.6 4.7 8.8
*) preliminary figure

Table 5 Real Sales Index by City

2017 2018 2019 Changes

CITY
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr* Mar Apr*
Jakarta 101.4 78.8 93.2 95.9 101.3 138.9 94.9 96.2 104.1 98.4 113.1 138.1 119.2 97.7 91.6 100.3 128.3 119.2 97.7 93.9 104.0 108.6 107.3 131.7 98.7 98.4 101.2 104.8 2.8 3.6

Bandung 313.0 301.0 304.9 307.2 317.6 321.2 302.3 292.6 291.6 290.7 294.6 310.5 281.4 270.3 269.8 271.4 269.2 275.9 263.6 263.1 249.0 232.0 229.3 274.3 242.9 240.5 242.4 244.9 1.8 2.6

Surabaya 131.9 136.7 141.4 143.8 143.2 139.6 144.1 149.3 151.6 158.4 165.1 166.1 169.2 181.9 204.2 212.4 218.4 230.7 223.9 228.1 231.4 237.3 246.2 252.0 255.8 282.9 307.9 281.4 25.0 (26.6)

Medan 193.1 191.5 189.9 193.5 198.0 213.4 212.4 209.7 206.6 203.9 200.4 208.1 204.5 207.0 200.9 201.3 214.5 228.1 220.5 220.4 215.5 207.7 207.4 222.0 212.8 208.8 205.9 208.6 (3.0) 2.8

Semarang ** 160.9 134.6 147.5 156.4 192.1 257.6 178.5 171.6 165.3 154.9 149.2 174.2 150.0 148.1 167.1 183.7 265.1 241.8 169.5 161.7 158.9 165.7 174.4 181.5 173.6 153.7 174.6 180.3 20.9 5.8

Banjarmasin 92.5 91.3 96.1 101.4 97.6 113.9 96.6 95.6 95.1 94.3 99.3 137.9 142.9 122.6 124.6 116.2 131.4 101.5 100.7 103.2 105.9 109.4 111.3 115.02 120.39 117.55 121.38 124.38 3.8 3.0

Makasar 126.0 123.6 124.7 125.7 127.5 129.1 128.2 129.3 130.4 131.4 131.5 132.8 132.9 133.8 130.6 123.7 133.4 138.4 131.9 133.8 156.2 168.0 163.1 183.4 179.0 159.7 168.4 175.9 8.6 7.5

Manado 146.1 138.9 147.3 150.5 154.8 166.8 149.6 150.3 150.3 154.0 152.5 171.1 126.8 119.2 120.1 124.7 144.0 144.9 153.8 120.6 131.1 132.9 144.4 178.0 159.7 157.4 160.9 169.3 3.5 8.4

Denpasar 161.0 153.4 158.8 167.0 159.8 149.3 177.6 180.9 147.9 151.6 153.9 142.7 139.6 136.0 140.6 141.3 143.0 141.5 140.1 140.1 141.9 142.0 141.9 145.0 141.9 135.5 137.1 136.9 1.6 (0.2)

TOTAL INDEX 207.2 197.1 204.0 206.5 214.3 232.4 209.9 202.1 201.2 202.3 206.7 219.5 203.5 200.0 209.1 215.0 232.0 237.8 216.0 214.3 210.8 208.1 213.7 236.3 218.1 218.2 230.2 227.4 12.0 (2.8)

*) preliminary figure
**) Incl. Semarang and Purwokerto

Retail Sales Survey 5

 Table 6 Real Sales Index Growth by City (year on year, %)

2017 2018 2019 Changes

CITY
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr* Mar Apr*
Jakarta 33.8 21.0 37.7 33.8 31.7 32.4 3.2 36.0 54.9 42.4 41.5 48.9 17.6 24.1 -1.8 4.6 26.7 -14.2 2.9 -2.4 -0.1 10.5 -5.2 -4.6 -17.2 0.7 10.5 4.4 9.8 (6.1)

Bandung 9.0 5.6 3.9 4.0 6.0 8.1 0.6 2.2 -1.5 0.8 -1.5 -2.9 -10.1 -10.2 -11.5 -11.7 -15.2 -14.1 -12.8 -10.1 -14.6 -20.2 -22.2 -11.6 -13.7 -11.0 -10.2 -9.7 0.8 0.4

Surabaya -5.4 -0.8 0.9 3.9 2.2 -0.7 2.2 4.1 5.9 10.2 15.8 15.3 28.3 33.0 44.4 47.6 52.5 65.2 55.4 52.8 52.6 49.8 49.1 51.7 51.2 55.6 50.8 32.5 (4.8) (18.3)

Medan -1.7 -4.4 0.6 4.6 4.2 4.1 -2.6 2.3 4.4 6.2 4.7 7.0 5.9 8.1 5.8 4.1 8.3 6.9 3.8 5.1 4.3 1.8 3.5 6.7 4.1 0.9 2.5 3.6 1.6 1.2

Semarang ** 6.1 0.0 1.7 6.1 10.6 11.0 -23.5 10.1 6.9 1.0 -3.3 -1.9 -6.8 10.0 13.2 17.5 37.9 -6.1 -5.0 -5.8 -3.9 7.0 16.9 4.2 15.8 3.8 4.5 -1.8 0.7 (6.3)

Banjarmasin 28.0 27.6 43.2 52.0 38.3 46.9 31.5 48.5 50.1 43.3 65.5 62.5 54.4 34.3 29.6 14.7 34.6 -10.9 4.2 8.0 11.3 16.0 12.1 -16.6 -15.7 -4.1 -2.5 7.0 1.5 9.5

Makasar 4.6 2.5 5.0 4.9 5.6 1.8 4.2 3.5 4.6 5.7 5.5 4.5 5.5 8.3 4.7 -1.6 4.6 7.3 2.9 3.5 19.7 27.8 24.1 38.1 34.7 19.4 28.9 42.2 9.6 13.3

Manado -23.5 -26.9 10.8 -2.8 -4.1 -1.6 -5.5 -4.8 -5.6 -3.3 -6.9 -16.8 -13.2 -14.2 -18.5 -17.2 -7.0 -13.1 2.8 -19.8 -12.8 -13.7 -5.4 4.0 26.0 32.1 34.0 35.8 1.9 1.8

Denpasar 2.9 -8.5 -2.3 -3.9 -2.6 -16.8 -6.1 2.0 -12.6 -11.0 -1.7 -12.0 -13.3 -11.3 -11.4 -15.4 -10.5 -5.2 -21.1 -22.6 -4.1 -6.4 -7.8 1.7 1.7 -0.4 -2.5 -3.1 (2.1) (0.6)

TOTAL INDEX 6.3 3.7 4.2 4.2 4.3 6.3 -3.3 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.5 0.7 -1.8 1.5 2.5 4.1 8.3 2.3 2.9 6.1 4.8 2.9 3.4 7.7 7.2 9.1 10.1 5.7 1.0 (4.3)

*) preliminary figure
**) Incl. Semarang and Purwokerto

Table 7 Real Sales Index Growth by City (month to month, %)

2017 2018 2019 Changes

CITY
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr* Mar Apr*
Jakarta 9.3 -22.3 18.3 2.9 5.6 37.2 -31.7 1.4 8.2 -5.5 15.0 22.1 -13.7 -18.0 -6.3 9.6 27.9 -7.1 -18.0 -3.9 10.8 4.4 -1.3 22.8 -25.1 -0.3 2.8 3.6 3.1 0.8

Bandung -2.1 -3.9 1.3 0.7 3.4 1.1 -5.9 -3.2 -0.4 -0.3 1.4 5.4 -9.4 -4.0 -0.2 0.6 -0.8 2.5 -4.5 -0.2 -5.4 -6.8 -1.2 19.7 -11.5 -1.0 0.8 1.1 1.7 0.3

Surabaya -8.5 3.7 3.4 1.7 -0.5 -2.5 3.2 3.6 1.6 4.5 4.2 0.6 1.8 7.5 12.3 4.0 2.8 5.6 -3.0 1.9 1.4 2.5 3.8 2.3 1.5 10.6 8.8 -8.6 (1.7) (17.5)

Medan -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 1.9 2.4 7.8 -0.4 -1.3 -1.5 -1.3 -1.7 3.8 -1.8 1.3 -3.0 0.2 6.6 6.3 -3.3 0.0 -2.2 -3.6 -0.1 7.0 -4.1 -1.9 -1.4 1.4 0.4 2.8

Semarang ** -9.3 -16.3 9.6 6.0 22.9 34.1 -30.7 -3.9 -3.7 -6.3 -3.7 16.8 -13.9 -1.2 12.8 10.0 44.3 -8.8 -29.9 -4.6 -1.7 4.3 5.3 4.0 -4.3 -11.5 13.6 3.3 25.0 (10.3)

Banjarmasin 9.0 -1.3 5.3 5.4 -3.7 16.7 -15.2 -1.1 -0.5 -0.9 5.3 38.9 3.6 -14.2 1.6 -6.7 13.0 -22.7 -0.8 2.5 2.6 3.3 1.8 3.3 4.7 -2.4 3.3 2.5 5.6 (0.8)

Makasar -0.9 -1.9 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.2 -0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.7 -2.4 -5.3 7.8 3.8 -4.7 1.4 16.7 7.6 -2.9 12.4 -2.4 -10.7 5.4 4.5 16.1 (0.9)

Manado -28.9 -4.9 6.0 2.2 2.9 7.8 -10.3 0.4 0.0 2.5 -1.0 12.2 -25.9 -6.0 0.7 3.8 15.5 0.6 6.2 -21.6 8.7 1.4 8.6 23.3 -10.3 -1.4 2.2 5.2 3.6 3.0

Denpasar -0.6 -4.7 3.5 5.2 -4.4 -6.5 19.0 1.8 -18.2 2.5 1.5 -7.3 -2.2 -2.6 3.4 0.5 1.2 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 -2.2 -4.5 1.2 -0.1 5.7 (1.3)

TOTAL INDEX -4.9 -4.9 3.5 1.2 3.8 8.5 -9.7 -3.8 -0.4 0.6 2.2 6.2 -7.3 -1.7 4.5 2.8 7.9 2.5 -9.2 -0.8 -1.6 -1.3 2.7 10.6 -7.7 0.0 5.5 -1.2 5.4 (6.7)

*) preliminary figure
**) Incl. Semarang and Purwokerto

Table 8 Quarterly Real Sales Index Growth by City (year on year, %)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

CITY
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I Q I- Q IV
Jakarta 1.5 -5.5 -15.6 -10.6 -14.4 -20.1 -22.1 -8.4 -9.4 11.3 -3.1 2.6 30.9 32.6 31.4 44.2 13.3 5.7 0.1 0.2 -2.0
Bandung 35.9 40.1 71.5 58.5 62.8 73.7 34.7 31.1 29.9 20.6 10.5 13.3 6.2 6.0 0.4 -1.2 -10.6 -13.7 -12.5 -18.0 -11.6
Surabaya 21.7 12.5 7.2 4.3 -1.4 -2.5 -9.6 -4.8 -2.5 -2.6 3.7 3.2 -1.8 1.8 4.1 13.7 35.2 55.1 53.6 50.2 52.5
Medan 5.2 8.0 5.2 2.4 -1.3 -2.6 -9.0 -4.3 3.2 2.1 7.4 0.7 -1.8 4.3 1.3 6.0 6.6 6.4 4.4 4.0 2.5
Semarang ** 22.6 5.2 9.5 -14.5 -9.1 3.9 -21.6 -16.3 -14.2 9.5 19.8 6.7 2.6 9.2 -2.2 -1.4 5.5 16.4 -4.9 9.4 8.0
Banjarmasin 8.1 7.3 9.8 3.9 -5.7 -3.2 -11.8 -19.4 -38.4 -38.1 -35.6 -21.2 32.9 45.7 43.4 57.1 39.4 12.8 7.9 3.8 -7.5
Makasar -9.6 -3.9 -4.2 -4.4 -3.5 -2.0 -3.6 -2.4 -1.2 0.2 3.0 4.4 4.0 4.1 4.1 5.2 6.2 3.4 8.7 30.0 27.7
Manado 10.3 15.8 14.1 -0.1 31.1 28.6 28.1 22.6 -18.3 -26.5 -30.2 -22.8 -13.2 -2.8 -5.3 -9.0 -15.3 -12.4 -9.9 -5.0 30.7
Denpasar -15.3 -37.6 -44.5 -17.0 -11.3 -8.9 5.5 -4.6 -20.0 11.9 15.3 -0.6 -2.6 -7.8 -5.6 -8.2 -12.0 -10.4 -15.9 -4.2 -0.4
TOTAL INDEX 19.9 13.1 15.3 10.9 15.5 22.0 7.1 9.9 11.5 13.7 9.4 9.5 4.8 4.9 0.2 1.8 0.7 4.9 4.6 4.7 8.8
*) preliminary figure
**) Incl. Semarang and Purwokerto

Table 9 Prices and Sales Expectations (Index)

2017 2018 2019

VARIABLES
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
General Price Expectations
- Next 3 months 134.1 140.4 149.7 146.7 138.3 133.3 135.5 145.0 148.0 154.9 152.8 158.2 155.1 164.0 169.0 153.7 152.0 135.8 140.2 144.3 159.3 163.9 156.9 156.9 154.3 153.9 174.6
- Next 6 months 132.3 131.3 130.3 130.0 135.8 149.3 158.1 162.7 157.3 163.1 173.2 167.9 161.5 149.2 150.8 163.1 165.8 170.9 177.8 177.3 173.3 172.4 168.0 168.0 157.9 155.3 152.8
Sales Expectations
- Next 3 months 119.3 134.8 154.3 141.5 137.7 123.1 127.9 141.0 153.1 149.1 134.6 118.7 142.2 153.7 161.2 140.0 140.2 128.4 140.4 139.7 165.9 156.0 141.3 141.3 140.7 155.1 154.9
- Next 6 months 147.1 144.6 137.1 131.7 129.7 141.3 153.5 141.4 136.0 135.7 151.0 149.0 140.3 147.6 141.1 146.2 140.7 160.3 161.6 148.3 143.8 141.7 148.8 148.8 136.3 151.3 149.9

METHODOLOGY The Retail Sales Survey has been conducted monthly to acquire early information concerning GDP
trends from a private consumption perspective. The Retail Sales Survey was first conducted in
September 1999 and in January 2015 the survey involved 700 retailers as respondents using purposive
sampling in ten cities, namely Jakarta, Semarang, Bandung, Surabaya, Medan, Purwokerto, Makassar,
Manado, Banjarmasin and Denpasar. The index is calculated using commodity and city weights, where
commodity weights based on the Input-Output (I-O) table, while city weights based on the share of
household consumption in Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) to household consumption in
Gross Domestic Product GDP. Currently, panel respondents are grouped according to seven KBLI
(Indonesian Standard Industrial Classification) established in 2009. The real index presented with
2010=100 as the base year (previously 2000=100). Meanwhile, general price projections calculated by
Retail Sales Survey
using the balanced score method (net balance + 100) using city weights according to the Cost of Living 6
Survey (SBH).