Dynamics of Large-Scale

Atmospheric Flow
Heini Wernli1 and Mischa Croci-Maspoli2
1 Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich
2 MeteoSwiss, Zürich

Lecture Course
701-1221-00L

Winter Semester 2010

What can you expect today?

• introduction of the lecturers and tutors

• introduce detailed program and goals of the lecture course

• details about the exam and exercises

• hints about further literature

• short review of the historical background of numerical weather prediction

Strategy and outline of the lecture course

Three different parts of the lecture course:

Provide the mathematical specification of the basic laws and a

1 systematic scale-analysis of the resulting equations for typical
macro-, meso,- and micro-scale circulation systems

Study of the synoptic-scale systems in the mid-latitudes. Derive the

2 so-called quasi-geostrophic system of equations and introduce the
Potential Vorticity (PV) world.

Interpretation of the development of weather systems. Introduction of

3 simple wave-theory concepts and diagnostic data studies
Programme lecture course

Date Theme Lecturer

21 Sep Introduction Croci-Maspoli / Wernli

1 28 Sep
05 Oct
Basic laws
Scale analysis & applications
Croci-Maspoli
Croci-Maspoli
12 Oct Circulation and Vorticity Croci-Maspoli
19 Oct QG - Basics Croci-Maspoli
26 Oct QG - Prediction and Diagnosis Wernli

2 02 Nov PV Perspective I Wernli

09 Nov PV Perspective II Wernli
16 Nov Waves I Wernli
23 Nov Waves II Wernli

3 30 Nov Eady Model Wernli

07 Dec Downstream development Wernli
14 Dec Summary, questions, backup Wernli
21 Dec
Exercises

Handling
The exercises will be discussed (pre-discussed) directly after the lecture course.

Tutors
• Andreas Winschall
• Sebastian Schemm

Attestation
• 5 out of 7 exercises have to be solved
Exercises

Preliminary Hand-In
Problemsheet Hand-Out Discussion
discussion (Friday)

1 20.09. 21.09. 27.09. 28.09.

2 04.10. 05.10. 11.10. 12.10.

3 18.10. 19.10. 25.10. 26.10.

4 01.11. 02.11. 08.11. 09.11.

5 15.11. 16.11. 22.11. 23.11.

6 29.11. 30.11. 06.12. 07.12.

7 13.12. 14.12. 20.12. 21.12

Exam

• There will be a written exam at the upcoming exam-session

• The exact date will be announced at the end of the semester

• The subject matter covers the entire script, lecture course and exercises

• Further information about the lecture course and exercises can be found
under:

http://www.iac.ethz.ch/education/master/dynamics_of_large_scale_flow/
General approach

Weather today Weather

Natural processes tomorrow

Analysis of Comparison of tomorrow‘s

atmosphere today weather and forecast

MODEL MODEL
Weather today Model processes Weather
tomorrow
Model processes

Let‘s discuss a simple model introduced by Lorenz (1984)

Ys+1 = aYs − Ys2

the temperature at the time s (s = 0, initial condition)

a model constant (model dependent)

is the temperature forecast at time s+1

CTRL run: a = 3.75, Y0 = 1.5

 Changes in initial conditions and model formulation

CTRL Y0+0.001 a+0.001 Ys+1 = aYs − Ys2

4

3
Y (temperature)

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
s (12 hours)
 Additional forces

T ! 5 days

Expertiment 1: random

Expertiment 2: with boundary conditions

(adapted from Palmer (1998) and C. Appenzeller)

Possible boundary conditions
Atmospheric Blocking
North Atlantic Oscillation NAO

Source: J. Hurrell

Source: NASA
VIPs of meteorology
History of numerical weather prediction
Historical background: Thanks to Peter Lynch, Dublin

Objective
To predict the future state of the atmosphere

9 Dec. 1887 10 Dec. 1887

Vilhelm Bjerknes (1862 - 1951)
Historical background: Thanks to Peter Lynch, Dublin

• First explicit analysis of weather

prediction

• Two-step plan: diagnostic and

prognostic

• Assembling a set of equations for each

dependent variable (p, T, density,
humidity, wind)
Felix Maria Exner (1876 - 1930)
Historical background: Thanks to Peter Lynch, Dublin

• Assumed geostrophic balance and

thermal forcing constant in time

• Derived a prediction equation for

advection

• His method yielded a realistic forecast

• First attempt to systematic, scientific

weather forecasting
Exner‘s forecast
Historical background: Thanks to Peter Lynch, Dublin

Calculated pressure change between 8pm and 12pm on 3 January 1895

Verification
Historical background: Thanks to Peter Lynch, Dublin

Observed pressure change between 8pm and 12pm on 3 January 1895

Max Margules (1856 - 1920)
Historical background: Thanks to Peter Lynch, Dublin

• Predicted pressure changes using the

continuity equation

• To found a realistic pressure tendency,

the winds must be known to an
unrealistic precision

• He was convinced that weather

forecasting was (Fortak, 2001):
„immoral and and damaging to the
character of a meteorologist“
Lewis Fry Richardson (1881 - 1953)
Historical background: Thanks to Peter Lynch, Dublin

• Calculated the pressure change at a

single point

• Duration: 2 years

• His forecast predicted

∆p = 145hPa in 6 hours
The Richardson grid
Historical background: Thanks to Peter Lynch, Dublin

• Approximatly 200km distance

• 5 vertical layers
Richardson‘s forecast factory
Historical background: Thanks to Peter Lynch, Dublin

224162

• 64‘000 (human)
computers
• first massively parallel
processor

• June 2005:
1. IBM BlueGene/L with
65‘536 processors
-> 136 TFlops

• June 2010:
1. Jaguar -Cray XT5-HE with
224‘162 processors
Richardson’s Forecast Factory (A. Lannerback).
Dagens Nyheter, Stockholm. Reproduced from L. Bengtsson, ECMWF, 1984
-> 1‘759 TFlops

27. Cray XT5 Monte Rosa with

22‘032 processors
-> 169 TFlops
Richardson‘s forecast failure

∆p = 145hPa in 6 hours
Rationale for the construction & solution of
„realistic models“

The equations are

complicated because the
atmosphere is
complicated.
L. F. Richardson
Weather forecast today

!
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
Setting of the theme within atmospheric science

Atmospheric Science is concerned with the systematic application of the

fundamental physical and chemical principles to examine the behavior of the
Earth’s atmosphere.

The discipline can be loosely sub-divided into two sub-disciplines

Atmospheric Physics & Chemistry

and

Atmospheric Dynamics.

Adequate understanding requires consideration of their combined effect.

Setting of the theme within atmospheric science

Atmospheric Dynamics Atmospheric Physics

& Chemistry
Analysis, interpretation, understanding Composition, radiative transfer,
and prediction of atmospheric flow, cloud & microphysics, chemistry

Representative of Representative of
quasi-adiabatic flow processes diabatic, quasi-static processes
701-1235-00L Cloud Microphysics,
701-0479-00L Environmental Fluid Dynamics I,
U. Lohmann
H. Wernli
402-0572-00L Aerosols I: Physical and Chemical
701-1224-00L Mesoscale Atmospheric Systems -
Principles, C. Marcolli
Observation and Modelling, H.
701-1233-00L Stratospheric chemistry,
Wernli
T. Peter
701-1226-00L Inter-Annual phenomena and their
701-1234-00L Tropospheric chemistry, J. Stähelin
prediction, C. Appenzeller
701-1251-00L Land-Climate Interactions, S.
701-1216-00L Numerical modelling of weather and
Seneviratne
climate, C. Schär
Setting of the theme within the climate perspective

(IPCC, AR4, 2007)

Range of flow phenomena

Extratropics

Subtropics

Tropics

http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/
Range of flow phenomena

Frontal bands

Convective storms

http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/
Planetary Scale
IR WV
Synoptic scale
Infrared satellite image
Synoptic scale
Meso-Scale
Micro-Scale and beyond

fotocommunity.de Tornado Norwegen (Stephan Bader, MeteoSchweiz)

Characterisation of flow phenomena

14 orders of magnitude separate

Space-Time scales of earth system processes
Space-Time scales of atmospheric phenomena
Weather systems near the ground
Middle- to high level disturbances
Basic questions

• What is the origin of large-scale flow systems?

(planetary waves, cyclones, anticyclones, fronts, ...)

• What determines the frequency of their occurrence and their duration?

• What determines their spatial scale and structure?

• Are the systems independent of one another?

• Are they predictable?

• Can their existence be suppressed or influenced?

• Can human activities change these systems?

Textbooks

Introductory and background material

• Atmospheric Science: An Introduction survey

Author: J. M. Wallace, P. V. Hobbs
Publ.: Academic Press (2006)

• An Introduction to Atmospheric Physics

Author: D. G. Andrews
Publ.: Cambridge University Press (2000)
Textbooks

Fluid Dynamics

• Physical Fluid Dynamics

Author: D.J. Tritton
Publ.: Van Norstand (1977)

• Fluid Mechanics
Author: P.J. Kundu and I. M. Cohen
Publ.: Academic Press (2002)

• An Introduction to Fluid Dynamics

Author: G.K. Batchelor
Publ.: Cambridge University Press (2000)
Textbooks

Atmospheric Dynamics

• An Introduction to Dynamic • Theoretische Meteorologie

Meteorology Author: D. Ettling
Author: J. R. Holton Publ.: Vieweg (2002)
Publ.: Academic Press (2004)

• Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics • Mid-Latitude Atmospheric Dynamics

Author: A. E. Gill Author: Jonathan E. Martin
Publ.: Academic Press (1982) Publ.: Wiley, John & Sons (2006)

• Atmosphere, Ocean and

Climate Dynamics
Author: J. Marshall and R. A.
Plumb
Publ.: Academic Press (2008)