Math 227

7.2 Estimating a Population Mean

It’s rare that we want to estimate the unknown value of a population mean 𝜇 but we somehow know
the value of the population standard deviation 𝜎, so we’re going to focus on the realistic situation in
which 𝜎 is unknown.
Point Estimate
As we discussed previously, the sample mean 𝑥̅ is an _________________ of the population mean 𝜇.
Also, for many populations, sample means tend to vary less than other measures of center. For
these reasons, the sample mean 𝑥̅ is usally the best point estimate of the population mean 𝜇.
Interval Estimate
Since even the best point estimate gives no indication of how accurate it is, we use a confidence
interval (or interval estimate), which consists of a range (or an interval) of values instead of just a
single value to estimate the population mean 𝜇.
Procedure for Constructing a Confidence Interval for 𝜇:
1. Verify that the requirements are satisfied:
a. The sample is a simple random sample.
b. Either or both of these conditions are satisfied:
i. The population is normally distributed. The method for finding a confidence interval
estimate of 𝜇 is robust against a departure from normality, which means that the normality
requirement is loose. The distribution need not be perfectly bell-shaped, but it should
appear to be somewhat symmetric with one mode or no outliers.
ii. Sample size 𝑛 > 30. This is a common guideline, but sample sizes of 15 to 30 are
adequate if the population appears to have a distribution that is not far from being normal
and there are no outliers. For some population distributions that are extremely far from
normal, the sample size might need to be larger than 30. We will use the simplified
criterion of 𝑛 > 30 as justification for treating the distribution of sample means as a normal
distribution.
2. The confidence interval is associated with a confidence level, such as 0.95 (or 95%), and 𝛼 is the
compliment of the confidence level (e.g. for 0.95, 𝛼 = 1 − 0.95 = 0.05)
3. Use technology or a 𝑡-table to find the critical value 𝑡3/5 that corresponds to the desired
confidence level. 𝑡3/5 is the critical value 𝑡 separating an area of ∝/2 in the right tail of the
Student 𝑡 distribution.
:
4. Evaluate the margin of error 𝐸 = 𝑡∝/5 ∙ (use df = 𝑛 − 1)
√<
5. Using the value of the calculated margin of error 𝐸 and the value of the sample mean 𝑥̅ , find the
values of the confidence interval limits 𝑥̅ − 𝐸 and 𝑥̅ + 𝐸. Substitute those values in the general
format of the confidence interval:
𝑥̅ − 𝐸 < 𝜇 < 𝑥̅ + 𝐸 OR 𝑥̅ ± 𝐸 OR (𝑥̅ − 𝐸, 𝑥̅ + 𝐸)
Note: You can also use the TInterval command on our calculator to find the confidence interval.
6. Round according to the following criteria:
• Original Data: When using an original set of data values, round the confidence interval limits to
one more decimal place than is used for the original set of data.
• Summary Statistics: When using the summary statistics of 𝑛, 𝑥̅ , and 𝑠, round the confidence
interval limits to the same number of decimal places used for the sample mean.
7. Interpret your CI: Remember that the confidence level gives us the success rate of the procedure
used to construct the CI. By, for instance, “95% confident,” we mean that if we were to select
many different samples of the same size and construct the corresponding confidence intervals, in
the long run, 95% of the confidence intervals should actually contain the value of 𝜇.
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Math 227
The Student 𝒕 Distribution
In this section we use a Student 𝑡 distrubtion, or simply 𝑡 distribution. It was developed by William
Gosset (1876-1937), who was a Guinness Brewery employee who needed a distribution that could be
used with small samples. The brewery prohibited publication of research results, but Gosset got
around this by publishing under the pseudonym “Student.” Here are some key points about the
Student 𝑡 distribution:

• Student 𝒕 Distribution: If a population has a normal distribution,

then the distribution of
𝑥̅ − 𝜇
𝑡=
𝑠/√𝑛
is a Student 𝒕 distribution for all samples of size 𝑛. The
Student 𝑡 distribution is different for different sample sizes. It
has the same general shape and symmetry as the standard
normal distribution, but it has the greater variability that is expected with small samples. Here
are some more of its characteristics:
1. It is bell-shaped.
2. It is symmetric about the mean.
3. The mean, median, and mode are equal to 0 and are located at the center of the
distribution.
4. The standard deviation varies with the sample size, but it is greater than 1 (unlike the
standard normal distribution, which has 𝜎 = 1).
5. The curve never touches the 𝑥-axis.
6. The 𝑡 distribution is actually a family of curves based on the concept of degrees of freedom,
which is related to sample size.
7. As the sample size increases, the 𝑡 distribution gets closer to the standard normal
distribution.

• Degrees of Freedom: The ________________ are the number of values that are free to vary
after a sample statistic has been computed, and they tell the researcher which specific curve to
use when a distribution consist of a family of curves. For a confidence interval for the mean,
the number of degrees of freedom is:
degrees of freedom (df) = 𝑛 − 1

• Critical Values 𝒕𝜶/𝟐 : A critical value 𝑡3/5 can be found using a 𝑡-table or a calculator:
2nd, VARS, invT(area, df)

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Math 227
Example: Find the 𝑡3/5 value for a 95% confidence interval when the sample size is 22.

Example: Ten randomly selected automobiles were stopped, and the tread depth of the right front tire
was measured. The mean was 0.32 inch, and the standard deviation was 0.08 inch. Find the 95%
confidence interval of the mean depth. Assume that the variable is approximately normally
distributed.

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Math 227
Example: The following data represent a sample of the assets (in millions of dollars) of 30 credit
unions in southwestern Pennsylvania. Find the 90% confidence interval of the mean.
12.23 16.56 4.39
2.89 1.24 2.17
13.19 9.16 1.42
73.25 1.91 14.64
11.59 6.69 1.06
8.74 3.17 18.13
7.92 4.78 16.85
40.22 2.42 21.58
5.01 1.47 12.24
2.27 12.77 2.76

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Math 227
Example: The data represent a sample of the number of home fires started by candles for the past
several years (data are from the National Fire Protection Association). Find the 99% confidence
interval for the mean number of home fires started by candles each year.
5460 5900 6090 6310 7160 8440 9930

Example: Listed below are the speeds (mi/h) measured from southbound traffic on the I-280 near
Cupertino, California (based on data from SigAlert). This simple random sample was obtained at
3:30 P.M. on a weekday. The speed limit for this road is 65 mi/h. Use the sample data to construct a
95% confidence interval for the mean speed. What does the confidence interval suggest about the
speed limit?
62 61 61 57 61 54 59 57 59 69 60 67

Pierce College // MDP 5