Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

US Aircraft Carrier to Visit Da
Nang on 5 March 2020
Carlyle A. Thayer
February 28, 2020

A U.S. Navy aircraft carrier and escort ships will visit Vietnam on March 5.
Q1/Is this a visit that has been planned for long time or just it is just a recent idea?
What is the symbolic message of this visit?
ANSWER: Vietnam has a policy of permitting foreign navies to make one friendly port
call each year. Several ships can make a port call at the same time. Vietnam does not
include the Cam Ranh International Port as it is a civilian facility.
In accord with this policy, the U.S. Navy makes one annual port call at Da Nang’s Tien
Sa port. In March 2018, the USS Carl Vinson became the first United States aircraft
carrier to visit since the Vietnam War. The following year the United States pressed
Vietnam to agree to an annual visit by a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier as part of a push to
upgrade bilateral relations to a strategic partnership. No U.S. aircraft carrier visited
last year.
The visit of a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier on 5 March is a result of routine bilateral
discussions between the United States and Vietnam.
The United States is signalling that it intends to remain the pre-eminent naval power
in the Western Pacific and South China Sea. Vietnam is signalling that it supports the
presence of the U.S. Navy in the South China Sea as long as it contributes to peace and
stability,
Q2/Is that true that the U.S has lobbied for this visit for a quite long time but Vietnam
had been very reluctant to approve it? if so, why?
ANSEWER: The United States has been lobbying Vietnam for an annual visit by an
aircraft carrier since April 2019. Vietnam has been reluctant to approve an annual visit
by a U.S. aircraft out of sensitivity to China’s likely negative reaction. But Vietnam also
has been concerned about the United States’ Countering America’s Adversaries
Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) and U.S. pressures on Vietnam to decrease military
arms purchases from Russia or face sanctions.
Q3/Why does the visit take place at this time? Is there anything that relates to the visit
by Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc to the U.S in the second week of
March?
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ANSWER: The U.S. Navy normally makes a visit to Tien Sa port in March each year. This
is a routine naval deployment.
The Trump Administration issued two invitations to ASEAN leaders to attend a special
meeting in the U.S., one in November last year and the second in January this year. It
is very likely that discussions for the visit of a U.S. aircraft carrier were initiated long
before this.
The fact that Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc is scheduled visit the United States to
attend the U.S.-ASEAN Special Meeting in Las Vegas a week later is fortuitous.1
Q4/How will the visit by a U.S aircraft carfrier help to stabilize situation in the South
China Sea? How will China react? Will China take aggressive action in response to
Vietnam allowing the US aircraft to visit Da Nang?
ANSWER: The United States conducts several types of military activities in the South
China Sea each year including continuous naval presence patrols, continuous bomber
presence patrols and freedom of navigation operational patrols. All three of these
activities signal to China United States resolve to maintain a presence in the South
China Sea.
Visits by U.S. Navy ships to ports in the region are designed to provide reassurance to
regional states that the U.S. will remain engaged. The presence of the U.S. Navy in the
South China Sea stabilizes the situation to the extent that China has to factor in how
the United States will react should China step up its intimidation of littoral states.
U.S. naval activities are only part of the equation. China is rapidly building up and
modernizing its navy and militarizing features in the South China Sea. China regularly
shadows U.S. naval patrols. China will react through a barrage of propaganda calling
out U.S. actions as a threat to stability and to China’s security.
China is unlikely to take any provocative actions following the U.S. Navy’s port call at
Da Nang because the visit will be a short one.
Q5/ The U.S aircraft carrier port call follows by a recent visit to India by
Trump, indicating that Trump wants publicity that the US (Trump) is respected again
as he claimed in his State of the Union address.
ANSWER: Trump’s visit to India and hosting of the U.S.-ASEAN Special Meeting are
part of a diplomatic strategy to demonstrate that the U.S. is engaged in the Indo-
Pacific Region. Of course, these events have domestic implications in the United
States. The White House will use the publicity of Trump’s engagements with foreign
leaders to demonstrate to the American public that the U.S. under President Trump is
respected.
Q5/According to ther Hainan Maritime Safety Administration, China will send HAI
YANG SHI YOU 719 operating IN AREA BOUNED BY THE LINES JOINING 17-02.86N/109-
12.44E、17-51.51N/108-33.88E、17-54.41N/109-01.37E、17-54.62N/109-29.13E、
18-11.82N/110-04.65E、18-39.34N/111-43.46E、18-06.65N/111-04.93E、18-

1
On February 27, Washington time, the U.S. State Department announced that the special meeting has
been cancelled due to the coronavirus.
 3

47.45N/112-16.32E、18-35.77N/113-17.49E、17-47.35N/111-55.56E、17-
32.97N/112-04.13E、17-19.08N/111-39.91E、16-56.27N/111-53.09E AND16-
52.78N/109-51.47E FROM 271200UTC FEB TO
301600UTC APR. TOWING 8100 METRES. WIDE BERTH REQUESTED. HAINAN MSA
CHINA.
https://www.hn.msa.gov.cn/hsfw_1_1/20200227/37443.html?fbclid=IwAR3mNU0W
IhPFzqEX39oUH2hXdVaG-m2fWVqCHDiLvO72qiBi202xVqMA_CI
This area will include Da Bac island of the Paracels. So our questions are:
Does the operation of HAI YANG SHI YOU 719 link to the visit by U.S aircraft at this
time? Or it is only a coincidence?
ANSWER: Of the face of it the deployment of the Hai Yang Shi You (HYSY) 719 would
appear to be both a commercial decision and a demonstration of China’s sovereignty
rights. If China were really exercised by the visit of a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier to Da
Nang China would respond by a demonstration of its air and naval might.
Q6/The deployment of the HYSY 719 is the second time it's happened. Why is it
significant at this time?
ANSWER: China and Vietnam have conflicting claims over the Paracels. Chinese
scholars are now mirroring the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative by publishing
information on Vietnamese militia and fishing fleet using AIS data.2 Recent Chinese
reports indicate a rise in the presence of Vietnamese fishing boats in the Paracels.3
The deployment of the HYSY 719 is likely to be a Chinese response.
Q7/Do you think sending the U.S aircraft carrier in this context will demonstrate
improving Vietnam-U.S. ties and U.S. efforts in the Indo-Pacific as well?
ANSWER: Official U.S. policy documents – National Security Strategy, National Defense
Strategy, Indo-Pacific Strategy – all highlight Vietnam as one of the most prominent
potential U.S. strategic partner.
Vietnam, for its part, has signalled in its recent Defence White Book, that “Depending
on circumstances and specific conditions, Viet Nam will consider developing
necessary, appropriate defence and military relations with other countries...”4 Many
foreign analysts interpreted this as referring to the United States.
Both the United States and Vietnam will highlight the forthcoming naval port visit as
a sign that bilateral military relations are developing well. The port visit will be
welcomed by Vietnam’s leaders as contributing to peace and security in the South
China Sea as well as the Indo-Pacific Region. The Commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet
will accompany the naval ship visit to Da Nang and he will highlight U.S. commitment
to the Indo-Pacific.

2
South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), https://scspi.pku.edu.cn/en/index.htm.
3
“Suspected Vietnamese Maritime Militias Encircle China’s Hainan Island,” South China Sea Strategic
Situation Probing Initiative, February 3, 2020, https://scspi.pku.edu.cn/en/analysis/501475.htm.
4
Ministry of National Defence, Socialist Republic or Viet Nam, 2019 Viet Nam National Defence (Hanoi:
National Political Publishing House, 2019), p. 24.
 4

The U.S. drive to shore up defence relations with Vietnam has been given new urgency
by President Rodrigo Duterte’s decision to give notice of the Philippines’ termination
of the Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States.
Q8/How might China view this development?
ANSWER: Some American analysts have jumped to the conclusion that the wording in
Vietnam’s Defence White Book signals that Vietnam, “could abandon its long-
standing foreign policy strategy of hedging between the major powers like China and
the United States and move more definitively into Washington’s orbit.”5 This
prognostication will eventuate only if the U.S. and Vietnam formally discuss raising
their bilateral relations to a strategic partnership and Vietnam grants the U.S. military
access to its ports and airfields on a regular basis.
The prospects of Vietnam moving into the U.S. military orbit would enrage China and
likely undermine the underpinnings of their comprehensive strategic cooperative
partnership. China would move quickly to drive a wedge between Vietnam and other
members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. China would likely stage
provocations similar to last year’s stand-off in the waters near Vanguard Reef to
demonstrate to Vietnam the futility of depending on the U.S. for its security.
Any suggestion Vietnam is prepared to shift into America’s orbit is speculation. At
present, there is increased strategic convergence between Washington and Hanoi but
not strategic congruence.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “US Aircraft Carrier to Visit Da Nang on 5

March 2020,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, February 28, 2020. All
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
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registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

5
Joshua Kurlantzick, “Vietnam, Under Increasing Pressure From China, Mulls a Shift Into America’s
Orbit,” World Politics Review, January 30, 2020.
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28502/as-china-vietnam-relations-deteriorate-hanoi-
mulls-closer-ties-with-the-u-s.
 5

Appendix
Dear correspondents and press assistants,
The PID, MOFA of Viet Nam and Ministry of National Defense of Vietnam and Da Nang
People's Committee in partnership with the Embassy of United States in Viet Nam
would like to invite you to cover the visit to Da Nang of U.S. Navy Ships on March 5,
2020.
The U.S. Pacific Fleet commander, U.S. Navy ship commander, U.S. Ambassador to
Vietnam Daniel Kritenbrink, and U.S. Consul General in Ho Chi Minh City Marie
Damour will represent the U.S. delegation at the welcoming ceremony. Following the
ceremony, reporters are invited to listen to short statements and ask questions at a
brief press conference at 1:00pm on March 5.
Correspondents and press assistants who are interested in covering the events should
register with PID via link below before 10:00 am 28 February 2020.
https://forms.gle/EnawzFSe6rrES8bWA [
Contact person: Mr. Hoang Nam PID's officer, cell phone 0965.821.886,
email hoangnam.mofa@gmail.com
Please note that:
1. Information about this visit is not for public release until further notice.
2. After finished the form, your register has been successfully submitted and is now
being processed. Please expect to receive another email when a decision has been
made. You WILL NOT received any email if your register is declined.
3. More details regarding the logistics of the press conference will be provided to
those who register is approved

Best regards.
PID
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Email: tuyentruyenbc@gmail.com/tuyentruyenbc@mofa.gov.vn
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