EMS 480

Math 2: Probability Simulation

Mathematics Learning Objectives:

Students will be able to use simulation to make inferences about probability.

Language Objectives:
Students will be able to simulate experiments.
Students will be able to compare probabilities.
Students will be able to explain why experimental probabilities may differ from actual probabilities.

Essential Question:
How do experimental probabilities compare to actual probabilities?

NC and CCSS Mathematics Standards:

NC.M2.S-IC.2 Use simulation to determine whether the experimental probability generated by sample data is
consistent with the theoretical probability based on known information about the population.
CCSS.MATH.PRACTICE.MP4 Model with mathematics.
CCSS.MATH.PRACTICE.MP5 Use appropriate tools strategically.

Materials:
15 coins (enough for each partner group to have one)
Classroom set of laptops (enough for each partner group to have at least one)
Copies of warmup (one for each student)
Copies of task (enough for each partner group to have one)
Writing utensil
Calculator

Notes to the reader:

Students have a small background of probability that they learned in Math 1.
Assuming that 30 students are present on the day of this lesson.
90 minute class period.

Detailed Plan for Instructional Time

Time What is the teacher doing? (Be sure to What are students doing? If they are
include questions the teacher will ask interacting with a technology tool or other
and academic language supports and materials, please describe.
details of technologies or
other materials used)
Warmup Talk about any announcements for the day. Asking possible questions about announcements.
10 minute Pass out warmup to all students. Do warmup and ask peers or teacher questions as
total Walk around and answer any individual needed.
(5 to work student questions.
and 5 to go Go over warmup as a class. (See attached Students volunteer to answer the questions on the
over as a file of warmup for answers) warmup.
class)
Ask students to all share their answer for the Possible answers: google “flip a coin”, online
last question. probability calculator, CODAP, online spin wheel

Launch Things to ask/discuss to launch the task: Possible student answers:

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What is probability? The likelihood that something occurs
5-10 minutes In what form is probability typically As a decimal from 0 to 1
written? You take the number of the things you have that want
How do you determine probability? to find and divide it by the total number of things you
have
Is it possible to have a probability greater No
than 1? Yes
Is it possible to have a probability equal to 4 blue marbles in bag and you pick one out, it must be
1? blue
Give some examples. When you flip a coin, it must either land on heads or
tails
The sun will set tonight

If I flip this coin, how many possibilities are 2

there? Heads and tails
What are they? Yes
Are the chances of heads and tails equal? There are only two options and they are equally likely
Why?
Ask any additional questions.
Answer any additional questions as
necessary.
Task Assign partner groups based on where Move to sit with their assigned partner.
students are sitting and general class
30 minutes behavior. Follow instructions on task. Using CODAP to
Give one coin to each pair. simulate probability of coin flip.

Walk around as students are working to ask Preparing presentation of findings.

and answer questions.

Possible questions to ask students to

promote statistical and intellectual thinking
as they are working:
What do you notice about the coin flips you
did?
Did you and your partner flip in the same
way?
Were you expecting the results you saw on
CODAP?

Presentations Possible questions to ask students as they ~2 minutes for each pair to present their findings
present:
30 minutes If you ran the CODAP simulation again,
would your results be the same? Answer teach or peer questions about investigation.
How do you know that your CODAP results
were truly random?
What did you learn about coin flipping?
Summarize Ask: Today we talked a lot about the Possible answers: dice rolls, colors on spin wheel,
day/exit probability of a coin. What else could we marbles
ticket simulate using CODAP?
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10-15 minutes What was the biggest thing you learned Possible student answer: The experiment is not always
today about probability? the same as the actual but it could be

Ask: Using what you learned about flipping Students write answers and turn in as they leave.
one coin today, if I were to flip 2 coins at
the same time, what is the probability they Possible student answers: 0.25, still 0.5, less than 0.5.
would both be Heads? How could you Make 2 T’s and 2 H’s and run simulation, use only 2
model this in CODAP? Write your answer samples or items
on a sheet of paper and turn in on your way
out.

Assign any potential homework.

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